Cecilie Sendstad

This article addresses two related questions associated with Russia’s rearmament program (GPV-2020). First, it examines how the Russian defense industry has performed in the first five years of the rearmament program, by presenting data describing the quantity and quality of new arms procurement in Russia. Second, the article considers which factors explain the nature of Russian defense-industrial performance over the past five years, including the importance of the increase in financial resources allocated to defense procurement, as well as additional structural and institutional factors. It is argued that, although defense-industrial performance between 2011 and 2015 has not been perfect, it can still be considered to have been relatively successful.

This article addresses two related questions associated with Russia’s rearmament program (GPV-2020). First, it examines how the Russian defense industry has performed in the first five years of the rearmament program, by presenting data describing the quantity and quality of new arms procurement in Russia. Second, the article considers which factors explain the nature of Russian defense-industrial performance over the past five years, including the importance of the increase in financial resources allocated to defense procurement, as well as additional structural and institutional factors. It is argued that, although defense-industrial performance between 2011 and 2015 has not been perfect, it can still be considered to have been relatively successful.

In September 2018 FFI was tasked by the Government to evaluate alternative paths for the future development of the Norwegian Armed Forces. Our mandate was to establish a basis for the preparation of a new long term plan. As a key premise, the government intends to increase the defence budget towards 2 percent of GDP. We have therefore assumed a lower budget limit that corresponds to the current long term plan and an upper limit based on 2 percent of GDP. The difference between these two budget assumptions accumulates to NOK 500 billion in the period from 2021 to 2037. Our analysis shows that increased defence budgets can be turned into increased security for any budget within this span.

For Forsvaret er økonomisk usikkerhetsanalyse et verktøy for å fastsette prosjekters styringsrammer og usikkerhetsavsetning, og i tillegg et viktig verktøy for håndtering av risiko. I så  henseende kan prosessen med å utarbeide prosjektusikkerhet være vel så viktig som den tekniske beregningsmodellen man benytter i usikkerhetsanalysen. FFI har gjennom lengre tid bistått Forsvaret i å utarbeide økonomiske usikkerhetsanalyser i forbindelse med anskaffelsesprosesser, og har derigjennom erfaring med bruk av ulike metoder og modelltilnærminger. Denne rapporten anbefaler en forenklet deterministisk metode for å beregne økonomisk usikkerhetsanalyse. Denne metoden  passer inn i modellen for levetidskostnader for et våpensystem, og kan brukes gjennom hele prosjektets levetid. Modellen er et supplement til Forsvarets etablerte metoder, og kan være egnet særlig i store og sammensatte prosjekter.