Research Interests: Environmental Science, Climate Change, Applied Economics, Natural Resource Economics, Land Use Change, and 11 moreClimate Change Mitigation, Computable General Equilibrium, Biofuel, Land Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Greenhouse Gas, Energy efficient, Green House Gases, Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT, and Cumulant
Research Interests: Economics, International Economics, Agricultural Economics, Biodiesel, Agriculture, and 14 moreApplied Economics, Natural Resource Economics, Biofuels, Social Science Research Network, Computable General Equilibrium, Food Prices, Food supply, Biofuel, Land Use, Growth and development, Ethanol, Agricultural and Resource Economics, Impacts, and Gross Domestic Product
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ABSTRACT One of the contentious issues of the ongoing climate negotiations is the huge differences in per-capita CO2 emissions between Annex I and Non-Annex I countries. This paper analyzes the costs of reducing this gap using a global... more
ABSTRACT One of the contentious issues of the ongoing climate negotiations is the huge differences in per-capita CO2 emissions between Annex I and Non-Annex I countries. This paper analyzes the costs of reducing this gap using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. A range of carbon taxes are considered for Annex I countries as policy instruments. Results show that the average per-capita CO2 emissions of Annex I countries would still remain almost twice as high as those of Non-Annex I countries in 2030 even if the CO2 emissions of the former are reduced by 57% from the baseline through a heavy carbon tax of $250/tCO2. The global reduction of CO2 emissions would be only 18% due to an increase in CO2 emissions in the Non-Annex I countries. This reduction would not be sufficient to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at the level implied by UNFCCC to avoid dangerous climate change. The $250/tCO2 carbon tax, on the other hand, would reduce Annex I countries’ gross domestic product by 2.4%, and global trade volume by 2%. This paper concludes that a demand for the convergence of per capita emissions between industrialized and developing countries would not be fruitful in climate change negotiations.
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The global renewable energy demand has been on the rise since 1870s. A report published by Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) showed that the global cumulative installed wind capacity rose from 10MW in 1980 to 539.6GW in 2017. In total,... more
The global renewable energy demand has been on the rise since 1870s. A report published by Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) showed that the global cumulative installed wind capacity rose from 10MW in 1980 to 539.6GW in 2017. In total, Asia, Europe, America, and Pacific regions contributed to 99.16% of the global wind capacity, while Africa and the Middle East took up the remaining 0.84% by the end of 2017. Generally, there is a need for developing countries to invest more in wind energy to significantly contribute to the global wind power installed capacity. Before installing a wind turbine, wind data for a prospected site needs to be collected for a minimum of one year. The analysis is then done and a detailed wind resource assessment report prepared. For developing countries, instruments and expertise for carrying out wind resource assessment are all imported, which is an additional hindrance to wind power investment. Current instruments for collecting wind data are not able to s...
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The levelized costs of electricity generation for renewable energy technologies differ and fluctuate depending on factors including capital costs, operation and maintenance costs, utilization factors, and economic lives. In addition to... more
The levelized costs of electricity generation for renewable energy technologies differ and fluctuate depending on factors including capital costs, operation and maintenance costs, utilization factors, and economic lives. In addition to these factors, In the case of fossil fuels, prices and heat rate are also responsible for fluctuations. There is a global movement in favor renewable energy. Many countries have announced carbon-free electricity within the next 30–40 years, which implies massive expansion of renewable energy technologies. The newer investment trends in electricity generation technologies indicate the same. Technological breakthroughs and cost reductions of energy storage technologies would further favor renewable energy technologies and would decrease their intermittency hurdles. Developments that expand the scaling effect of renewable energy and the potential improvement in efficiency through continued research and development could bring the cost of renewable energy...
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The World Bank Group (WBG) considers climate change as one of its main business agendas. It allocated more than US$50 billions to climate change-related activities over the 5 years during the 2011–2015 period. Helping developing countries... more
The World Bank Group (WBG) considers climate change as one of its main business agendas. It allocated more than US$50 billions to climate change-related activities over the 5 years during the 2011–2015 period. Helping developing countries to achieve their Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) is one of main climate change-related activities of the WBG at present. This study highlights WBG’s recent efforts to facilitate low-carbon investment in developing countries and presents a case study of China where a hypothetical carbon pricing mechanism is assumed to meet the country’s emission intensity targets under the INDC.
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Abstract Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and highway expansions actually proposed for Beirut are compared using an urban computable general equilibrium model. The model has two geographic zones, central area and suburbs, but it is economically... more
Abstract Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and highway expansions actually proposed for Beirut are compared using an urban computable general equilibrium model. The model has two geographic zones, central area and suburbs, but it is economically detailed. It includes production, labor, residential and commercial real estate markets and multimodal road congestion with private car, minibus and taxi vehicles and public buses. BRT reduces road congestion by 9 %, improves traffic speed by 24 %, and reduces the road congestion externality by 18 %. The BRT improves consumer utility and achieves social welfare gains that are 7.9 % of income: two-thirds are from the BRT as a new mode and one-third from the benefits of the lower congestion for the other modes. Road expansion also improves consumer utility, but achieves lower social welfare due to its cost and lower effect on real estate prices. The BRT yields an operating surplus, but road expansion requires deficit financing.
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China has set a goal of reducing its CO2 intensity of GDP by 60–65% from the 2005 level in 2030 as its nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Climate Change Agreement. While the government is considering series of market... more
China has set a goal of reducing its CO2 intensity of GDP by 60–65% from the 2005 level in 2030 as its nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Climate Change Agreement. While the government is considering series of market and nonmarket measures to achieve its target, this study assesses the economic consequences if the target were to meet through a market mechanism, carbon tax. We used a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of China for the analysis. The study shows that the level of carbon tax to achieve the NDC target would be different depending on its design features. An increasing carbon tax that starts at a small rate in 2015 and rises to a level to meet the NDC target in 2030 would cause smaller GDP loss than the carbon tax with a constant rate would do. The GDP loss due to the carbon tax would be smaller when the tax revenue is utilized to cut existing distortionary taxes than when it is transferred to households as a lump-sum rebate.
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Roads alleviate congestion, speed up traffic and lower CO2 in the intensive margin. This attracts more car-trips in the extensive margin. The combined effect often increases fuel used and CO2. How well can public transit offset the higher... more
Roads alleviate congestion, speed up traffic and lower CO2 in the intensive margin. This attracts more car-trips in the extensive margin. The combined effect often increases fuel used and CO2. How well can public transit offset the higher emissions caused by new roads? In a simple core-periphery model of Beijing, CO2 from road expansion in the periphery is difficult to alleviate by improving transit in the urban core, because (i) choice of car in the core is not elastic enough to bus travel time; (ii) trips are drawn from car to bus, reducing CO2, but trips are also drawn from walking and bicycling to bus, diluting the gains. Reducing core roads or making transit in the periphery faster draws population to the less congested periphery. These policies add to urban sprawl, but offset CO2 from cars more effectively. We show that both policies are more effective in compact cities in which cores are denser or when gasoline prices are much higher.
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The EU introduced a Biofuel Directive in 2003 to promote the use of biofuels for road transportation [1]. The Directive’s target was to replace 5.75% of transportation fuels (i.e., gasoline and die...
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This paper presents the results of a series of simulations analysing the implications of measures to reduce carbon emissions in Annex 1 countries, conducted using the Oxford Global Macroeconomic and Energy Model. It shows that the GDP... more
This paper presents the results of a series of simulations analysing the implications of measures to reduce carbon emissions in Annex 1 countries, conducted using the Oxford Global Macroeconomic and Energy Model. It shows that the GDP costs of reducing carbon emissions vary significantly across countries and that the cost depends on a number of critical factors including energy intensity,
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Since billions of people from the developing world do not have access to electricity and fuels for cooking, the United Nations specified universal access to modern energy as the seventh sustainable development goal (or SDG7): “ensure... more
Since billions of people from the developing world do not have access to electricity and fuels for cooking, the United Nations specified universal access to modern energy as the seventh sustainable development goal (or SDG7): “ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all.” Rapid development and deployment of technologies that supply clean and affordable energy services are critical to achieve this goal. This chapter discusses key technologies required to achieve the SDG7, challenges associated with the expanded deployment of these technologies, and policies to address the challenges. It starts with a survey of technology trends and advances across solar, wind, geothermal and off-grid systems that can have an impact on achievement of SDG7. Then the many challenges and barriers to modernizing traditional energy sources are discussed. Lastly, approaches to leveraging both supply side and demand side technologies and expand technology deployment are sugge...
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The electricity generation cost of a technology is often measured in terms of levelized cost of electricity or LCOE despite fundamental flaw is that it treats the intermittent and no-dispatchable renewable technologies equally with the... more
The electricity generation cost of a technology is often measured in terms of levelized cost of electricity or LCOE despite fundamental flaw is that it treats the intermittent and no-dispatchable renewable technologies equally with the fully dispatchable electricity generation technologies. The LCOE of renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, has been rapidly falling over time as the capital costs that include not only the cost of equipment but also the entire installation of the plant is falling including balance of system (BoS) and soft costs. One would wonder why have the costs of renewable energy, particularly solar, falling down? A comparison of LCOE reported by various sources or studies is often misleading, and therefore such a comparison should be avoided. technologies. The objective of this article is to illustrate the levelized costs of electricity generation with the values of LCOE estimated from various sources. We also present the declining trends of renewable energy costs and try to explain the potential drivers of the decline. We also explain the factors that affect the LCOE and present renewable energy cost trends with the discussion of the potential drivers of the declining trend and how.
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Abstract Nepal has a severe infrastructure investment gap, which is slowing its economic growth. Between 2007 and 2017, the country went through a massive electricity supply shortage that caused up to 14 h of daily load shedding.... more
Abstract Nepal has a severe infrastructure investment gap, which is slowing its economic growth. Between 2007 and 2017, the country went through a massive electricity supply shortage that caused up to 14 h of daily load shedding. Computable general equilibrium model estimates suggest this load shedding had drastic costs for Nepal's economy. The reliable power supply would have increased the country's annual gross domestic product by almost seven percent, and annual investment would have been 48% higher. The power supply has significantly improved after 2017 through additions to domestic generation capacity, improved load management, and increased imports from neighboring India, and the load shedding has been eliminated. The improvement must be continued and sustained to keep pace with rapidly growing electricity demand to avoid drastic economic loss in the future.
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Climate change adaptation is one of the main strategies to address global climate change. The least developed countries and the small island states that lack financial resources to adapt to climate change are the most vulnerable nations... more
Climate change adaptation is one of the main strategies to address global climate change. The least developed countries and the small island states that lack financial resources to adapt to climate change are the most vulnerable nations to climate change. Although it would be more economical to adapt to climate change compared to the anticipated damage of not doing so, the demand for capital is estimated to range to hundreds of billions. The crucial question is how to manage investments to adapt to climate change globally. This study provides an overview of existing international provisions on climate finance for adaptation. It includes provisions through international financial institutions, United Nations agencies, bilateral and multilateral channels, and the private sector. It also explores how private sector finance can be further attracted to invest in climate change adaptation.
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This study estimates the economic costs of electricity load shedding in Nepal over the period 2008–16. We show that in the absence of load shedding, annual gross domestic product, on average, would have been almost 7 percent higher than... more
This study estimates the economic costs of electricity load shedding in Nepal over the period 2008–16. We show that in the absence of load shedding, annual gross domestic product, on average, would have been almost 7 percent higher than it was during the period of power outages. The load shedding particularly strongly affected investment that would have been 48 percent higher with the reliable power supply. Although reliability of power supply in the residential sector has recently improved because of better electricity load management, and an increase in electricity production and imports, the industrial sector still faces significant load shedding. Unless the electricity load shedding is eliminated, Nepal will continue to suffer a heavy economic loss.
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Introduction: Ukraine, an Eastern European country located between Russia and Europe, is facing two big challenges in terms of its energy supply. First, it is highly dependent on imports for its energy supply and most imports come from... more
Introduction: Ukraine, an Eastern European country located between Russia and Europe, is facing two big challenges in terms of its energy supply. First, it is highly dependent on imports for its energy supply and most imports come from Russia with whom its relationship has been highly deteriorated since 2014. Second, most of its energy supply and utilization infrastructures were built during the Soviet era and are highly inefficient because of aging and outdating (Ogaranko & Hubacek, 2013). The inefficiency is sustained due to prolonged distortions in the energy markets, such as low and subsidized energy prices, and resistance to energy price reforms (ECS, 2013). Improvement of energy efficiency is one of the key instruments to address these challenges. However, realization of significant improvement in energy efficiency are constrained by several barriers, such as financial, information and institutional and behavioral barriers. Although a large number of empirical studies examinin...
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The South Asia region is comprised of nations with (i) rapidly growing energy demand, (ii) significant seasonal complementarities in their energy demands (see Figure 1), and (iii) large but unevenly distributed primary energy electricity... more
The South Asia region is comprised of nations with (i) rapidly growing energy demand, (ii) significant seasonal complementarities in their energy demands (see Figure 1), and (iii) large but unevenly distributed primary energy electricity generation potential across countries and seasons. The region’s national electricity systems face several challenges. Electricity supplies have not kept pace with demand and are frequently interrupted. At the same time, there is underutilization of available generation capacities due to fuel supply shortages and price controls. Electricity shortages not only impose hardships on households, but also hinder business activity and new investment in the economy. Electricity generation and transmission shortages also have stimulated use of energy-inefficient, costly and pollution-intensive power sources, including both aged and highly polluting coal-fired generation plants, and diesel generators operated both on the grid and by end-users. Government bailo...
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The data table refers to social accounting matrix of Bangladesh for year 2012
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Overview: China is implementing both market (carbon pricing) and non-market (i.e., regulatory or administrative) policy instruments to achieve its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Climate Agreement. For the... more
Overview: China is implementing both market (carbon pricing) and non-market (i.e., regulatory or administrative) policy instruments to achieve its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Climate Agreement. For the market instruments, China introduced a national emission trading scheme (NETS) in 2017. Before launching the NETS, China experimented with domestic emission trading through seven pilot projects in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing, Guangdong, Hubei and Shenzhen (Zhang, 2015). Under the NETS, some provinces would be the buyer of the emission allowances and some would be the seller, thereby causing some redistribution of wealth. Also, for some sectors, specifically the emission-intensive ones, the relative competitiveness in various provinces would change, which may lead to the relocation of capital and investment among different regions (Zhu et al. 2017). The study estimates how much GHG emissions each of the 31 provinces and 16 sectors in each provin...
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In response to growing environmental concerns, particularly climate change, governments have encouraged innovation and adoption of clean technologies through various policy measures. At present more than half a trillion US dollars is... more
In response to growing environmental concerns, particularly climate change, governments have encouraged innovation and adoption of clean technologies through various policy measures. At present more than half a trillion US dollars is being invested annually in clean technologies. Based on the existing literature, this study analyzes whether investments in clean technologies increase productivity. The findings are mixed. Employing firm-level data, the majority of ex-post studies show a positive relationship between clean investments and firms’ productivity, especially in the energy-intensive manufacturing sector. Most studies for the transport, building and power sector use an ex-ante, technology or sectoral level analysis instead of ex-post analysis to examine the economics of clean technologies. In the transport sector, transportation services with electricity or hydrogen are still more expensive than that with gasoline and diesel vehicles. Some studies, however, project that cleaner vehicles will be economically attractive within a decade. Many studies report that clean technologies reduce energy consumption and save energy bills in the building sector, although some studies do not agree. Most studies for the power sector indicate that renewable technologies have not yet reduced the average costs of grid electricity because of their intermittency and a smaller share in the total electricity supply.