Species Distribution Models

While many plant species are considered threatened under anthropogenic pressure, it remains uncertain how rapidly we are losing plant species diversity. To fill this gap, we propose a Global Legume Diversity Assessment (GLDA) as the first step of a global plant diversity assessment. Here we describe the concept of GLDA and its feasibility by reviewing relevant approaches and data availability. We conclude that Fabaceae is a good proxy for overall angiosperm diversity in many habitats and that much relevant data for GLDA are available. As indicators of states, we propose comparison of species richness with phylogenetic and functional diversity to obtain an integrated picture of diversity. As indicators of trends, species loss rate and extinction risks should be assessed. Specimen records and plot data provide key resources for assessing legume diversity at a global scale, and distribution modeling based on these records provide key methods for assessing states and trends of legume diversity. GLDA has started in Asia, and we call for a truly global legume diversity assessment by wider geographic collaborations among various scientists.

Background: The distribution of refugial habitats is the main factor affecting the existence of cold-adapted species in the lowlands. In addition, regional climatic conditions could have an influence on relicts. Aims: Co-occurrence of environmental factors in the determination of the distribution of the glacial relict Festuca amethystina was examined in Poland.
Methods: Climatic data, habitat indicator species, parent material of soils and range of glaciations were analysed, using ecological niche modelling. Prediction of Festuca amethystina occurrence for different sets of data – only climatic, only habitat and all data – was modelled. Results: The distribution of Festuca amethystina was related to the presence of oak forests (Potentillo albae-Quercetum), to moderate subcontinental climate, but not to the distribution of loess soils. In addition, variables related to temperature and precipitation in the driest quarter of the year, isothermality and a mean diurnal range had the strongest influence on the occurrence of F. amethystina within the Potentillo-Quercetum range.
Conclusions: Climate acts as a regional filter and habitat availability as a local filter for distribution of the species. Therefore, the habitat can act as microrefugium in some parts of its range. In a flat landscape, relicts can persist where environmental conditions are simultaneously favourable for the persistence of refugial vegetation and relict populations.

Pradhan P. 2015. Potential distribution of Monotropa uniflora as a surrogate for range of Monotropoideae (Ericaceae) in South Asia. Biodiversitas 16: 109-115. Monotropoideae is a mycoheterotrophic subfamily of Ericaceae. Its members are highly specific to a particular fungal family, which has attributed to the rarity and limited distribution of Monotropoideae. In the past two decades, there are considerable developments in understanding their biology and biogeography, among which,the distribution of Monotropa uniflora L. and M. hypopitys L. has been extensively studied. In this contribution, Ecological Niche Modeling of M. uniflora has been conducted to test its earlier proposed distribution in South Asia, to test the spatial scale of the said proposal, to test its potential distribution as a surrogate for range of Monotropoideae in South Asia and to prioritize conservation areas for M. uniflora in the region. The model was built with five occurrence details of the rare plant M. uni...

Nursamsi I, Partasasmita R, Cundaningsih N, Ramadhani HS. 2018. Modeling the predicted suitable habitat distribution of Javan hawk-eagle Nisaetus bartelsi in the Java Island, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 19: 1539-1551. Javan hawk-eagle (Nisaetus bartelsi) is an endemic raptor of Java Island. The conservation status of Javan hawk-eagle (JHE) according to IUCN is endangered (EN) and included in CITES Appendix II list, and this species is also protected by the Indonesian government law based on act no. 5, year 1990. The position of Javan hawk-eagle as a top predator is now very threatened by habitat fragmentation, wildlife trade, and the declining quality of its habitat. The primary purpose of this study was to give preliminary information about the distribution of predicted suitable habitat for JHE as a means of finding potential releasing sites, as an evaluation for habitat protection, and even as an option for the development of new JHE protected areas. However, mapping the spatial distribution of potential habitat for JHE using terrestrial survey is problematic because it requires enormous time, fund, and human resources. The most possible approach is by using Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM)/species distribution modeling (SDM). In this study, modeling exercise was conducted by using a maximum entropy method as an adaptation from Maxent software ver. 3.4.1, with the utilization of JHE-nest coordinate data and 16 environmental variables datasets as the main input. The predicted suitable habitat distribution map has shown a good match with historical and present records of JHE and has fairly succeeded in capturing a wide range of habitat patches from tiny spots to quite large suitable habitat. Modeling results also showed that altitude, annual mean temperature, and two types of land cover (closed shrub, and forest area) are considered to be most important variables affecting the distribution of potential habitat for JHE. Moreover, about 17.77% (23,209 km 2) area of Java Island has been projected to be suitable for Havan Hawk-Eagle's habitat, which mostly spread in mountainous areas while also appear in several lowland areas. This study suggests the importance of topographic, climatic, and land cover as pivotal predictors in determining the suitability of habitat for JHE. This study also shows that the modeling results have a good match with the historical records of JHE across the island, which suggests the overall accuracy of the model.

The Mexican Caribbean is considered one of the most important sites for whale shark aggregations. Whale shark groups of over 300 individuals have been recorded frequently. There is little published information regarding the ecology of the whale shark in Mexico, and the role that the Mexican Caribbean plays as habitat for this species. This area has been recognized as important for the whale shark and therefore it is necessary to determine the environmental factors that shape the distribution of these animals. The aim of this study was to identify key environmental factors associated with whale shark feeding aggregations and to determine the patterns in habitat suitability for whale sharks in the Mexican Caribbean through the modeling approach of maximum entropy. Whale shark data obtained for this study included 250 records during April to September (2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012). The MaxEnt model performed better than random and produced an area under the curve (AUC) score of 0.946. Primary productivity and sea surface temperature were the variables most strongly related to whale shark sightings. The model predicted a high suitability in areas located to the north of Isla Contoy and the offshore area east of Isla Contoy named BAfuera( >0.75), with medium suitability north of Cabo Catoche (>0.5) and lower suitability for the northeast of Cabo Catoche (<0.5). The habitat suitability maps also indicated seasonal variations, showing a higher prediction of whale shark sightings during the rainy season (June to October), when primary productivity is higher in the area.

Aquatic invasive species are a major threat to native freshwater ecosystems and cause enormous ecological and economic damage worldwide.
Didymosphenia geminata (Lyngbye) M. Schmidt is an emerging invasive aquatic species that is spreading aggressively in Southern South America.
Using niche analysis and species distribution models (SDMs), we examined niche requirements of D. geminata using climatic, topographic, and
biological variables. We compared the realized niche of the species in the United States (US) with the niche in Chile. Within Chile, we also
examined the environmental conditions (environmental envelopes) of rivers with and without this alga, to assess whether this species has the
potential to colonize more rivers. Finally, we compared the SDMs from the US and Chile projected to Chile. Results showed that the potential
distribution of D. geminata varied significantly between US and Chile. The US-based model predicted a geographic distribution in Chile which
ranged from 32º to 55º S latitude while the Chile-based model predicted suitable habitats only from 36° to 48º S, and not so in the coastal ranges nor
in Southern Patagonia ( ̴ 52–55°S). In Chile, we found no differences in the environmental envelopes of the invaded and uninvaded rivers, thus
suggesting that this species has even more suitable habitats to invade. These results can be used for prioritizing survey sites in Southern Chile for an
early detection and management of D. geminata and for the conservation of native flora and fauna in freshwater ecosystems in Chile.

Accurate knowledge of distribution and population size is required for effective conservation and
management of wild species. Here we report on the first estimates of the distribution and density of the green python
(Morelia viridis), an iconic rainforest species widely kept in captivity. We used climatic modelling to predict its
distribution in Papua New Guinea, and both climate and vegetation mapping to predict its Australian distribution. We used
mark–recapture methods to estimate the density and population structure of green pythons at Iron Range, northern
Australia. Bioclimatic analyses suggested that there is extensive climatically suitable habitat in Papua New Guinea
(≥200000 km2), but very little in Australia (~300 km2). However, use of vegetation maps increases the predicted suitable
area of occupancy in Australia to 3127 km2, including nine regional ecosystems. Density estimates at Iron Range were
4–5 ha–1 in the complex vine forest regional ecosystem; however, only half of these were mature adults. The large predicted
area of occurrence and the high density in the one intensively studied area suggest that the species is not vulnerable to
extinction in the short term. However, more studies are needed in both New Guinea and Australia, especially to quantify
the impact of harvesting green pythons for the pet trade.

In the light of the development of ecosystem-based management for riverine ecosystems, we present a novel concept that (1) considers environmental and human impacts comprehensively to describe ecosystem changes and (2) links simulated distributions of different combinations of aquatic biota along the riverine trophic chain. The new set of predictors will be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs): besides most common spatial predictors, we propose 1) water quality, 2) hydrology, and 3) the use of calibrated output of the SDM as new biological predictors in order to develop an indicator of ecosystem health based on 3 levels of the riverine trophic chain: macrophytes, macroinvertebrates, and fish. The novelty of this approach lies in the combination of these 3 biotic groups through the SDM and the use of hydrology and land use scenarios as predictors.

The Zambian Barbet is Zambia's only endemic bird species. over the past 2 years, surveys have been conducted with the species range to establish population, distribution (spatial and temporal) and also to understand the species breeding habits. This brief gives a summary of what was done in 2014.

Marketing Channels is a comprehensive textbook especially designed for students of postgraduate management programmes specializing in marketing. The book delves into the core concepts and theories of the distribution aspect of marketing and explains them through numerous examples, images, figures, and cases.

Question: What are the effects of the number of presences on models generated with multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS)? Do these effects vary with data quality and quantity and species ecology?Location: Spain and Ecuador.Methods: We used two data sets: (1) two trees from Spain, representing high-occurrence number data sets with real absences and unbalanced prevalence; (2) two herbs from Ecuador, representing low-occurrence number data sets without real absences and balanced prevalence. For model quality, we used two different measures: reliability and stability. For each sample size, different replicates were generated at random and then used to generate a consensus model.Results: Model reliability and stability decrease with sample size. Optimal minimum sample size varies depending on many factors, many of which are unknown. Regional niche variation and ecological heterogeneity are critical.Conclusions: (1) Model predictive power improves greatly with more than 18-20 presences. (2) Model reliability depends on data quantity and quality as well as species ecological characteristics. (3) Depending on the number of presences in the data set, investigators must carefully distinguish between models that should be treated with skepticism and those whose predictions can be applied with reasonable confidence. (4) For species combining few initial presences and wide environmental range variation, it is advisable to generate several replicate models that partition the initial data and generate a consensus model. (5) Models of species with a narrow environmental range variation can be highly stable and reliable, even when generated with few presences.

Species distribution data provide critical baseline information for conservation planning and decision making. However, in many of the Earth’s most biodiverse regions, such data are lacking for many species. Here, we used ecological niche modeling and connectivity analyses to model distributions of endangered species and protected area connectivity across the Upper Guinea Forest (UGF) Global Conservation Hotspot of West Africa. We estimated the current distributions of African forest elephant Loxodonta cyclotis (Vulnerable), western chimpanzee Pan troglodytes verus (Critically Endangered), and pygmy hippopotamus Choeropsis liberiensis (Endangered) across the region and optimized connectivity in two main forest complexes in the region. We used occurrence data for the period 2010–2016 for the three species from two well-sampled national parks in Liberia (Sapo National Park and Gola National Park), and remotely sensed MODIS enhanced vegetation index data for the period 2010–2015. Our models predicted a total of 75,157 km2 of suitable habitat for chimpanzees in the region, 79,400 km2 for elephants, and 290,696 km2 for
hippos. Of these areas, for chimpanzees, 30% of the area predicted falls within the boundaries of proposed or designated protected areas, and likewise 30% for elephants, and 19% for hippos. Liberia had the largest blocks of contiguous forest suitable for these species compared to other countries in the region but this forest was largely unprotected. This study identifies priority areas for biodiversity conservation and forest connectivity in the region, and reemphasizes the practicality of these tools to optimize conservation planning and implementation.

The common lionfish Pterois miles has rapidly spread across the eastern Mediterranean Sea. We compiled occurrence data from both native and invaded range under the framework of Species Distribution Modelling (SDM). Through a construction of an environmental suitability model and estimation of spread rates we investigated the lionfish climate niche in both its native and invaded domains, this latter represented by the Mediterranean region. Model projections allowed to identify suitable areas for lionfish establishment in the Mediterranean. Spread analysis suggested that a further geographical expansion in this basin could be completed within the next years. Our results did not provide evidence for niche expansion but highlighted a high degree of niche unfilling thus prospecting a likely spread of Mediterranean lionfish invasion beyond the predictions of current SDMs. These findings provide novel inputs to forecast the future geographical evolution of the lionfish in the Mediterranean Sea and asses the related risk of invasion.

Aim: Understanding how habitat loss and overhunting impact large carnivores is important for broad-scale conservation planning. We aimed to assess how these threats interacted to affect jaguar habitat (Panthera onca) between 1985-2013 in the Gran Chaco, a deforestation hotspot.

Location: Gran Chaco ecoregion in Argentina, Paraguay and Bolivia. Methods: We modelled jaguar habitat change from 1985-2013 using a time-calibrated species distribution model that uses all occurrence data available for that period. We modelled habitat as a function of resource availability and hunting threats, which allowed us to separate core (high resource availability and low hunting threat), refuge (low resources but safe), attractive sink (high resources but risky) and sink (low resources and risky) habitat for 1985, 2000 and 2013.

Results: Jaguar core areas contracted by 33% (82,400 km 2) from 1985-2013, mainly due to an expansion of hunting threats. Sink and attractive sink habitat covered 58% of the jaguar range in 2013 and most confirmed jaguar kill sites occurred in these.

Any biological species of biparental organisms necessarily includes, and is fundamentally dependent on, sign processes between individuals. In this case, the natural category of the species is based on family resemblances (in the Wittgensteinian sense), which is why a species is not a natural kind. We describe the mechanism that generates the family resemblance. An individual recognition window and biparental reproduction almost suffice as conditions to produce species naturally. This is due to assortativity of mating which is not based on certain individual traits, but on the difference between individuals. The biosemiotic model described here explains what holds a species together. It also implies that boundaries of a species are fundamentally fuzzy, and that character displacement occurs in case of sympatry. Speciation is a special case of discretisation that is an inevitable result of any communication system in work. The biosemiotic mechanism provides the conditions and communicative restrictions for the origin and persistence of diversity in the realm of living (communicative and semiotic) systems.

Abrupt collapse of the tropical rainforest biome (Coal Forests) drove rapid diversification of Carboniferous tetrapods (amphibians and reptiles) in Euramerica. This finding is based on analysis of global and alpha diversity databases in a precise geologic context. From Visean to Moscovian time, both diversity measures steadily increased, but following rainforest collapse in earliest Kasimovian time (ca. 305 Ma), tetrapod extinction rate peaked, alpha diversity imploded, and endemism developed for the first time. Analysis of ecological diversity shows that rainforest collapse was also accompanied by acquisition of new feeding strategies (predators, herbivores), consistent with tetrapod adaptation to the effects of habitat fragmentation and resource restriction. Effects on amphibians were particularly devastating, while amniotes ('reptiles') fared better, being ecologically adapted to the drier conditions that followed. Our results demonstrate, for the first time, that Coal Forest fragmentation influenced profoundly the ecology and evolution of terrestrial fauna in tropical Euramerica, and illustrate the tight coupling that existed between vegetation, climate, and trophic webs.

Borneo harbours more endemic carnivores than does any other island in the world except Madagascar, and almost half of the Bornean carnivore species have been classified by The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species as globally threatened. Here, a systematic conservation planning framework highlighted key carnivore landscapes, conservation research and intervention priorities, and gaps in current knowledge of Bornean carnivore ecology. All single-species predictive habitat suitability index (HSI) models presented in this issue (20 species, comprising all carnivores on Borneo except otters [Lutrinae] and sun bear Helarctos malayanus) were standardised by converting HSI values into binary maps, and combined to derive species richness maps to discuss and delineate areas of conservation priority. The highest predicted carnivore species richness (defined here as the sum of the binary threshold maps), corresponds to interior lowland, upland and lower montane forest, whereas areas with lowest predicted species richness correspond to coastal lowlands already largely converted to oil palm plantations. The 12 proposed areas of conservation importance for carnivores focus on large landscapes and connectivity between subunits, many centred around the tri-national Heart of Borneo initiative, with additional areas for wetland/lowland species. A large proportion of these proposed conservation landscapes are being exploited for commercial purposes (e.g., logging concessions) and would, therefore, improve in conservation value if their management became more sustainable. The most important research priorities for Bornean carnivores are species resilience to altered and fragmented landscapes; under-surveyed regions; and the effects and relative intensity of hunting across the island. The most pressing conservation interventions include conservation research on the most threatened Bornean carnivores: the Bornean ferret badger Melogale everetti and Hose's civet Diplogale hosei (highland endemics), and the flat-headed cat Prionailurus planiceps and otter civet Cynogale bennettii (wetland specialists). Targeted conservation research and integration of research findings into decision-making, maintaining and restoring connectivity, raising awareness and improving enforcement and governance are also important conservation interventions. Although more resources are needed for conservation and research, the joint effort of scientists, conservationists and government authorities in the identification of key carnivore landscapes, research priorities and conservation issues which this study presents raises hope that more targeted conservation efforts for Bornean carnivores will follow in the future.

Abstrak (Bahasa Indonesia). Wilayah Borneo memiliki paling banyak karnivora endemik dibandingkan pulau lainnya di seluruh dunia, selain Madagaskar. Hampir setengah dari keseluruhan jenis karnivora yang ada di Borneo masuk dalam kategori terancam pada daftar IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Disini, suatu kerangka perencanaan konservasi yang sistimatis menyoroti kawasan kunci karnivora, prioritas penelitian dan intervensi aspek konservasi, serta kesenjangan dari pengetahuan mengenai ekologi karnivora di Borneo. Semua model pendugaan Index Kesesuaian Habitat (IKH) pada setiap spesies yang disajikan dalam tulisan ini (20 spesies, terdiri atas semua spesies karnivora yang ada di Borneo terkecuali berang-berang [Lutrinae] dan Beruang Madu Helarctos malayanus) distandardisasi dengan mengkonversi nilai IKH ke dalam pemetaan binari, dan digabung untuk memperoleh peta kekayaan spesies guna dibahas dan ditetapkan wilayah prioritasnya. Nilai pendugaan kekayaan spesies karnivora tertinggi (sebagai jumlah dari peta ambang binari), adalah selaras dengan bentuk hutan pedalaman dataran rendah, hutan dataran tinggi dan hutan pegunungan dataran rendah, sedangkan wilayah dengan pendugaan kekayaan spesies karnivora terendah adalah selaras dengan bentuk pantai dataran rendah yang telah berubah sepenuhnya menjadi perkebunan kelapa sawit. Dua belas wilayah dicanangkan sebagai wilayah penting untuk dikonservasi bagi karnivora, terpusat pada bentang alam yang luas dan saling berhubungan diantara sub-unit, kebanyakan berpusat di sekitar area Heart of Borneo di tiga negara, dengan wilayah tambahan untuk spesies dataran rendah atau lahan basah. Sebagain besar dari wilayah yang dicanangkan ini merupakan wilayah yang telah banyak dieksploatasi untuk tujuan komersil (konsesi hutan) dan dapat meningkatkan nilai konservasi manakala pengelolaannya bersifat berkelanjutan. Prioritas terpenting untuk penelitian karnivora Borneo adalah kesanggupan spesies beradaptasi pada wilayah yang terfragmentasi; wilayah-wilayah dalam area survey, serta pengaruh dari perburuan di semua wilayah pulau. Intervensi konservasi terpenting mencakup penelitian konservasi pada karnivora Borneo yang paling terancam: Biul Slentek Melogale everetti dan Musang Gunung Diplogale hosei (endemik dataran tinggi), serta Kucing Tandang Prionailurus planiceps dan Musang Air Cynogale bennettii (spesialis lahan basah). Penelitian wilayah konservasi terpilih dan integrasi temuan hasil penelitian kedalam penetapan kebijakan, menjaga dan memperbaiki RAFFLES BULLETIN OF ZOOLOGY Supplement

Correlative species distribution models are becoming commonplace in the scientific literature and public outreach
products, displaying locations, abundance, or suitable environmental conditions for harmful invasive
species, threatened and endangered species, or species of special concern. Accurate species distribution models
are useful for efficient and adaptive management and conservation, research, and ecological forecasting. Yet,
these models are often presented without fully examining or explaining the caveats for their proper use and
interpretation and are often implemented without understanding the limitations and assumptions of the
model being used. We describe common pitfalls, assumptions, and caveats of correlative species distribution
models to help novice users and end users better interpret these models. Four primary caveats corresponding
to different phases of the modeling process, each with supporting documentation and examples, include:
(1) all sampling data are incomplete and potentially biased; (2) predictor variables must capture distribution
constraints; (3) no single model works best for all species, in all areas, at all spatial scales, and over time; and
(4) the results of species distribution models should be treated like a hypothesis to be tested and validated
with additional sampling and modeling in an iterative process.

The rapid growth of cities around the world is now seen as a major contributor to global biodiversity loss and many governments include biodiversity conservation as an explicit policy goal. To help prevent further loss of biodiversity, there is an urgent need for more strategic approaches to conservation planning in urban environments based on a scientific understanding of landscape patterns, species requirements and development pressures. In this study, we demonstrate the use of new conservation planning tools to better integrate information on threatened species into landuse planning. We present a case study in the Greater Melbourne area that utilises the Zonation conservation planning tool with data for 30 threatened fauna species. We perform a multi-species spatial prioritisation that incorporates species-specific connectivity requirements and demonstrate the use of this information in a number of landuse planning contexts. First, we quantitatively assess the differences between Melbourne's current conservation areas with the locations prioritised by Zonation and determine priority areas for their extension. We then show how the prioritisation can be used in decisions regarding Melbourne's Urban Growth Boundary and in rezoning land for development. Finally, we demonstrate how the prioritisation can be used to identify areas of conservation significance within individual developments that account for the wider landscape context. These results demonstrate how conservation planning tools can be better integrated into the different stages of landuse planning for future urban growth.

To consolidate the available information on terrestrial and marine mammals of the department of Nariño, voucher specimens from national collections as well as records from international museum databases and the scientific literature were investigated. A checklist of 182 mammalian species is presented. Out of those, 24 species are considered as threatened under some category in Colombia. Our work reveals the need of new efforts to fill out the mammalian information gaps for this portion of the country.

This article is focused on mathematical underpinning of wetland ecosystem conservation and management. More precisely, it looks into algebraic expressions of species diversity index hence lay the groundwork of basic numerical techniques that are at paramount importance to effectively conserve wetlands that are rapidly diminishing in the face of anthropogenic human induced threats across the neotropic and tropical belt. The article start with basic information about types of wetlands, various terminologies that are often echoed within the broader rubric of limnology and then provide solid mathematical treatments of configuring diversity index focusing shannon index by simplifying algebraic expressions one step at a time.....Readers with basic 100 level ecology course taken at undergraduate school may find the article steep-learning curve whilst students from sophomore and beyond may find it relatively mild learning curve....

El 11 de marzo de 2020, la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) declaró pandemia global el brote de la enfermedad COVID-19, producida por el nuevo coronavirus SARS CoV-2. En este artículo se efectúa una revisión de las contribuciones científicas publicadas hasta la fecha que relacionan las condiciones atmosféricas con la distribución del SARS CoV-2. La mayor parte de ellas concluyen que existe cierta influencia del tiempo atmosférico y/o el clima en la distribución y el progreso de la COVID-19. En concreto, un ambiente fresco y seco, en el contexto de un clima mesotérmico, parece el más idóneo para la expansión del SARS CoV-2. Sin embargo, un número significativo de estudios revisados adolece de diseños de investigación inadecuados, lo que hace muy difícil aislar de forma fehaciente el efecto genuino de las condiciones atmosféricas en la propagación de la enfermedad de otros efectos, incluidos los posibles artefactos derivados de la prevalencia observada, la dependencia espacial y temporal de los datos y la propia geografía humana: conectividad geográfica, movilidad, sistema sanitario, etc. Se concluye que sólo existen indicios, no evidencia, de que las condiciones atmosféricas pueden llegar a explicar una fracción muy limitada de la dinámica espaciotemporal del SARS CoV-2.

Species distribution models (SDMs) frequently project substantial declines in the spatial extent of climatically suitable habitat in response to scenarios of future climate change. Such projections are highly disconcerting. Yet, considerable variation can occur in the direction and magnitude of range changes projected by different SDM methods, even when predictive performance is similar. In this study, we assessed whether particular methods have a tendency to predict substantial loss or gain of suitable habitat. In particular, we asked, “are 14 SDM methods equally likely to predict extreme changes to the future extent of suitable habitat for 220 Australian mammal species?”. We defined five non-mutually exclusive categories of ‘extreme’ change, based on stability or loss of current habitat, or the dislocation of current and future habitat: a) no future habitat (range extinction); b) low stability of current habitat (≤10% remains); c) no gain of habitat in new locations; d) all future habitat is in new locations (i.e. completely displaced from current habitat); and e) substantial increase in size of habitat (future habitat is ≥100% larger than current). We found that some SDM methods were significantly more likely than others to predict extreme changes. In particular, distance-based models were significantly less likely than other methods to predict substantial increases in habitat size; Random Forest models and Surface Range Envelopes were significantly more likely to predict a complete loss of current habitat, and future range extinction. Generalised Additive Models and Generalised Linear Models rarely predicted range extinction; future habitat completely disjunct from current habitat was predicted more frequently than expected by Classification Tree Analysis and less frequently by Maxent. Random Forest generally predicted extreme range changes more frequently than other SDM methods. Our results identify trends among different methods with respect to tendency to predict extreme range changes. These are of significance for climate-impact assessments, with implications for transferability of models to novel environments. Our findings emphasise the need to explore and justify the use of different models and their parameterisations, and to develop approaches to assist with optimisation of models.

The jaguar (Panthera onca) is currently one of the carnivorous species of global interest in conservation, which range has observed a drastic reduction in the last XX years and currently occupies only 46% of their historic range in America. In South America, it is remaining at 62% of its original distribution.. We georeferenced and analyzed all existing verified records of the species within Colombia, using Geographic Information Systems and ecological niche modeling approach to estimate current and future changes in distribution over the next decades. The results suggest that the species has a current potential range of 875 838 km 2 , representing 77% of the territory and According to the climate change scenarios, the species is expected to be affected not only in terms of area loss but also in its distribution in the six natural regions of the country with possible local or regional extinctions. Furthermore, the jaguar has 69.3% of natural and seminatural forests available in its potential range and less than 18% of this area is currently protected, with human factors and habitat loss restricting even more its distribution,. Of all the National Parks that cover this distribution, only six have sufficient size (over 6000 km 2 ) to ensure the species long-term conservation, therefore it is necessary to implement management and conservation actions, especially in areas where possible populations have been identified (Jaguar Conservation Units [JCU]). Here we identify and suggest two more JCUs (Serrania de San Lucas and Nukak National Park), that because of their size, physical continuity and connectivity of habitat and no major changes in the context of climate change, will contribute to the jaguar conservation not only in Colombia but also in the whole conservation context, because the country could work as a bridge connecting populations between Central and South America.

The Sundarbans, in southern coastal Bangladesh, is the world’s largest surviving mangrove habitat and the last stronghold of tiger adapted to living in a mangrove ecosystem. Using MaxEnt (maximum entropy modeling), current distribution data, land-use/land cover and bioclimatic variables, we modeled the likely future distribution of the globally endangered Bengal tiger (Panthera tigris tigris) in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. We used two climatic scenarios (i.e., RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide projections of suitable habitats of Bengal tigers in 2050 and 2070. We also combined projected sea-level rise for the area in our models of future species distributions. Our results suggest that there will be a dramatic decline in suitable Bengal tiger habitats in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. Other than various aspects of local climate, sea-level rise is projected to have a substantial negative impact on Bengal tiger habitats in this low-lying area. Our model predicts that due to the combined effect of climate change and sea-level rise, there will be no suitable Bengal tiger habitat remaining in the Sundarbans by 2070. Enhancing terrestrial protected area coverage, regular monitoring, law enforcement, awareness-building among local residents amongst the key strategies needed to ensure long-term survival and conservation of the Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.

Sudanian Savannas are under high agricultural pressure and are therefore changing rapidly. Due to high population densities and an increasing need for food and cash crops, the mosaic of traditional agroforestry systems, fallows and savanna is being transformed into intensively used croplands and savannas only remain in protected areas. e focus of this study is to characterize the differences in plant diversity and composition between protected areas and surrounding agricultural lands and to identify areas most important for plant conservation. Building on observation and collection records, we modelled distributions of individual plant species and summarized these. We mapped the species richness of vascular plants in general, of woody plants, graminoids and forbs, the share of weeds and the average size of grasses and trees and calculated means for the reserves and outside areas. Distinct differences between protected areas and agricultural lands have been found in the richness of herbs (both forbs and graminoids) and weeds as well as in the size of grasses : Woody species seem to be less affected by human impact in the agricultural lands concerning both species richness and plant size. Weeds are playing an important role in the higher species richness of the agricultural lands.

RESUMEN En los últimos años se ha generalizado una nueva herramienta que permite analizar objetivamente los patrones espaciales de presencia de organismos: los modelos de distribución de especies. Estos modelos se basan en procedimientos estadísticos y cartográficos que partiendo de datos reales de presencia permiten inferir zonas potencialmente idóneas en función de sus características ambientales.

"À Lascaux, les bisons, les aurochs et les bouquetins n’ont pas été représentés côte à côte. En revanche, on peut mettre en évidence des systèmes bisons-chevaux et aurochs-chevaux-cerfs. Nous souhaitons montrer que cette répartition s’explique par les affinités qu’entretiennent les espèces entre elles et par le biotope qu’elles occupent respectivement.

At Lascaux, bisons, aurochs and ibex are not represented side by side. Conversely, one can note a bisons-horses-lions system and an aurochs-horses-deers-bears system, these animals being frequently associated. Such a distribution may be explained by the relationship between the species pictured and their environmental conditions. Aurochs and bison fight one against the other, and horses and deers are very social with other animals. Bisons and lions live in open plains areas; aurochs, deers and bears are associated with forests and marshes; ibex habitat is rocky areas, and horses are highly adaptative for all these areas. The Lascaux paintings disposition may be explained by a belief in the real life of the pictured species, the artist trying to respect their real environmental conditions.

For some media coverage see here!
*http://www.academia.edu/1889840/Peintures_de_Lascaux_du_nouveau_-_LEssor_Sarladais_vendredi_9_mars_2012_65e_annee_n_12-10_28
*http://www.sudouest.fr/2012/02/14/la-verite-est-elle-au-fond-du-puits-632935-4608.php
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This dissertation uses a comparative approach to investigate long-term human- environment interrelationships in times of climate change. It uses Geographical Information Systems and ecological models to reconstruct the Magdalenian (~20,000- 14,000 calibrated years ago) environments of the coastal mountainous zone of Cantabria (Northwest Spain) and the interior valleys of the Dordogne (Southwest France) to contextualize the social networks that could have formed during a time of high climate and resource variability. It simulates the formation of such networks in an agent-based model, which documents the processes underlying the formation of archaeological assemblages, and evaluates the potential impacts of climate-topography interactions on cultural transmission. This research then reconstructs the Magdalenian social networks visible through a multivariate statistical analysis of stylistic similarities among portable art objects. As these networks cannot be analyzed directly to infer social behavior, their characteristics are compared to the results of the agent-based model, which provide characteristics estimates of the Magdalenian latent social networks that most likely produced the empirical archaeological assemblage studied.
This research contributes several new results, most of which point to the advantages of using an inter-disciplinary approach to the study of the archaeological record. It demonstrates the benefits of using an agent-based model to parse social data from long- term palimpsests. It shows that geographical and environmental contexts affect the structure of social networks, which in turn affects the transmission of ideas and goods that flow through it. This shows the presence of human-environment interactions that not only affected our ancestors’ reaction to resource insecurities, but also led them to innovate and improve the productivity of their own environment. However, it also suggests that such alterations may have reduced the populations’ resilience to strong climatic changes, and that the region with diverse resources provided a more stable and resilient environment than the region transformed to satisfy the immediate needs of its population.

Traditionally, biodiversity conservation gap analyses have been focused on governmental protected areas (PAs). However, an increasing number of social initiatives in conservation (SICs) are promoting a new perspective for analysis. SICs include all of the efforts that society implements to conserve biodiversity, such as land protection, from private reserves to community zoning plans some of which have generated community-protected areas. This is the first attempt to analyze the status of conservation in Latin America when some of these social initiatives are included. The analyses were focused on amphibians because they are one of the most threatened groups worldwide. Mexico is not an exception, where more than 60% of its amphibians are endemic. We used a niche model approach to map the potential and real geographical distribution (extracting the transformed areas) of the endemic amphibians. Based on remnant distribution, all the species have suffered some degree of loss, but 36 species have lost more than 50% of their potential distribution. For 50 micro-endemic species we could not model their potential distribution range due to the small number of records per species, therefore the analyses were performed using these records directly. We then evaluated the efficiency of the existing set of governmental protected areas and established the contribution of social initiatives (private and community) for land protection for amphibian conservation. We found that most of the species have some proportion of their potential ecological niche distribution protected, but 20% are not protected at all within governmental PAs. 73% of endemic and 26% of microendemic amphibians are represented within SICs. However, 30 micro-endemic species are not represented within either governmental PAs or SICs. This study shows how the role of land conservation through social initiatives is therefore becoming a crucial element for an important number of species not protected by governmental PAs.

Proses pendistribusian merupakan aspek penting dalam sebuah perusahaan. Namun terkadang perusahaan belum menemukan cara yang tepat untuk proses pendistribusian yang efektif dan efisien. Selain itu proses pendistribusian terkadang memerlukan dana yang besar. Tujuan dari penelitian ini yaitu membuat model distribusi yang optimal untuk PT. ARTA BOGA dengan menerapkan North West Corner Method dan Stepping Stone Method. North West Corner Method sebagai metode solusi awal merupakan metode yang paling sederhana dari metode lain, dimulai dari pojok kiri atas tabel. Stepping Stone Method  sebagai solusi optimal. Kedua jenis uji transportasi tersebut diuji dengan software POM QM serta dilakukan uji manual untuk menyelaraskan hasilnya.
Kata Kunci: North West Corner, Stepping Stone Method, PT. Arta Boga

Entomopathogenic nematodes (EPNs) distribution in natural areas and crop field edges in La Rioja (Northern Spain) has been studied taking into account environmental and physical-chemical soil factors. Five hundred soil samples from 100 sites of the most representative habitats were assayed for the presence of EPNs. The occurrence of EPNs statistically fitted to a negative binomial distribution, which pointed out that the natural distribution of these nematodes in La Rioja was in aggregates. There were no statistical differences (p 6 0.05) in the abundance of EPNs to environmental and physical-chemical variables, although, there were statistical differences in the altitude, annual mean air temperature and rainfall, potential vegetation series and moisture percentage recovery frequency. Twenty-seven samples from 14 sites were positive for EPNs. From these samples, twenty isolates were identified to a species level and fifteen strains were selected: 11 Steinernema feltiae, two S. carpocapsae and two S. kraussei strains. S. kraussei was isolated from humid soils of cool and high altitude habitats and S. carpocapsae was found to occur in heavy soils of dry and temperate habitats. S. feltiae was the most common species with a wide range of altitude, temperature, rainfall, pH and soil moisture, although this species preferred sandy soils. The virulence of nematode strains were assessed using G. mellonella as insect host, recording the larval mortality percentage and the time to insect die, as well as the number of infective juveniles produced to evaluate the reproductive potential and the time tooks to leave the insect cadaver to determinate the infection cycle length. The ecological trends and biological results are discussed in relationship with their future use as biological control.

Climate changes have occurred several times throughout the Earth's history; however, current global warming episode may be occurring at a faster rate. Species may respond to this changes by adapting to the new conditions or by shifting their distributions tracking their niches spatially. Recent studies projected climate change effects in Mexico concluded that one major spatial foci of serious effects of global warming on biodiversity would be the Chihuahuan Desert. We analyzed if two desert species have tracked their niches in drastic climate change events: 1) in the past (across the Pleistocene–Recent transition), 2) present and 3) future (2020, 2050 years). We used ecological niche modeling to project geographical distributions across these periods, and fieldwork to support our findings. Results show that during the last glaciation the two species were restricted to few sites where environmental conditions were suitable. In the present, we detected evidence of species’ responses at the population level, as we found low abundances and recruitment rates in sites where models predicted unsuitable environmental conditions, and recent colonization in new suitable areas for a species with high dispersal rate and successful establishment, but no range expansion for a species with low dispersal capacity. Finally, future projections suggest high risk for the species with current restricted distribution.

The flat-headed cat Prionailurus planiceps is classified as one of the most threatened cat species in the world. Its range is restricted to southern Thailand, peninsular Malaysia and the two largest Sunda Islands, Borneo and Sumatra. Its association with wetlands and lowland areas puts great pressure on this species, because these habitats are most threatened by degradation and agricultural conversions. Borneo has been identified as the stronghold for flat-headed cat. Of 140 flat-headed cat occurrence records for Borneo, 50 (Balanced Model) or 76 (Spatial Filtering Model) were used to estimate potential habitat suitability. Although we predicted suitable habitat for the flat-headed cat scattered across the lowlands of Borneo, some large lowland areas are predicted to be unsuitable, a likely consequence of forest conversion to oil palm plantations. Of particular predicted importance are forests in Brunei Darussalam, the Sabangau National Park and surrounding forest complex in Central Kalimantan and forests in North Kalimantan, as well as the central forest block in Sabah. The main threat to the flat-headed cat is ongoing transformation of forested areas to monoculture plantations, as the species appears unable to use these human-dominated habitats. Of particular importance for long-term survival of flat-headed cat is conservation of land near rivers and peat swamp forests.

Abstrak (Bahasa Indonesia). Kucing Tandang Prionailurus planiceps diklasifikasikan sebagai salah satu jenis kucing liar yang paling terancam di dunia. Daerah sebarannya terbatas di Thailand Selatan, Semenanjung Malaysia dan dua Kepulauan Sunda terbesar, Borneo dan Sumatera. Asosiasi jenis ini adalah lahan basah dan dataran rendah, yaitu kawasan yang mendapatkan tekanan yang sangat tinggi saat ini oleh degradasi dan konversi menjadi lahan pertanian, sehingga tekanan terhadap Kucing Tandang juga sangat tinggi. Borneo telah diidentifikasi sebagai benteng terbaik untuk Kucing Tandang. Kami mengumpulkan 140 catatan kehadiran Kucing Tandang di Borneo, dimana 50 (Model Penyeimbang) atau 76 (Model Spasial Tersaring) digunakan untuk mengestimasi habitat yang sesuai. Walaupun prediksi habitat yang sesuai tersebar di dataran rendah Borneo, tetapi hasil penelitian kami juga menyatakan sebagian besar kawasan dataran rendah tidak sesuai untuk habitat, yang merupakan konsekuensi dari konversi hutan menjadi perkebunan sawit. Prediksi kawasan penting adalah kawasan hutan di Brunei Darussalam, Taman Nasional Sebangau dan sekitar kawasan hutan di Kalimantan Tengah, kawasan hutan di Kalimantan Utara, juga kawasan hutan di Sabah. Ancaman utama jenis Kucing Tandang adalah konversi kawasan hutan menjadi kawasan tanaman monokultur sehingga jenis ini tidak dapat hidup di kawasan yang didominasi oleh aktivitas manusia. Suatu yang paling penting bagi kelestarian jenis Kucing Tandang ini adalah mempertahankan kawasan sempadan sungai dan kawasan hutan rawa gambut. Abstrak (Bahasa Malaysia). Kucing Hutan Prionailurus planiceps dianggap sebagai salah satu spesis kucing yang paling terancam di dunia. Taburan spesis ini terhad di selatan Thailand, Semenanjung Malaysia dan di dua kepulauan Sunda yang terbesar iaitu Borneo dan Sumatera. Perkaitannya dengan tanah bencah dan kawasan tanah rendah memberikan tekanan yang tinggi kepada spesis ini kerana habitat ini sangat terancam dengan kemusnahan dan aktiviti penukaran tanah kepada akuakultur. Borneo telah dikenal pasti sebagai kawasan utama untuk Kucing Hutan. Kami mengumpul sejumlah 140 rekod Kucing Hutan di Borneo. Daripada jumlah itu, 50 rekod (Model Seimbang) atau 78 rekod (Model yang ditapis secara spasial) telah digunakan untuk meramal kesesuaian habitat yang berpotensi bagi spesis ini. Walaupun kami meramalkan habitat yang sesuai untuk Kucing Hutan adalah bertaburan di seluruh kawasan tanah rendah Borneo, keputusan yang kami perolehi turut mencadangkan bahawa sesetengah kawasan tanah rendah yang luas adalah tidak sesuai bagi Kucing Hutan. Ini kemungkinan disebabkan kawasan tersebut telah dijadikan ladang kelapa sawit. Antara kawasan penting yang diramal untuk spesis ini adalah hutan di Brunei Darussalam, Taman Negara Sabangau dan kompleks hutan di Kalimantan Tengah, hutan di bahagian utara Kalimantan Timur serta kompleks hutan di bahagian tengah Sabah. Ancaman utama bagi Kucing Hutan adalah penukaran kawasan hutan kepada ladang monokultur yang masih lagi berlaku pada ketika ini. Ini kerana spesis ini dilihat tidak mampu untuk mengguna kawasan yang telah didominasi oleh manusia. Antara langkah penting untuk kelangsungan hidup jangka panjang Kucing Hutan adalah pemuliharaan kawasan hutan yang berhampiran dengan sungai dan hutan paya gambut.