Research Interests:
Research Interests:
The Addis Ababa Action Agenda stresses the importance of effective resource mobilization and use of domestic resources to pursue sustainable development. The first Sustainable Development Goal is to eradicate extreme poverty for all... more
The Addis Ababa Action Agenda stresses the importance of effective resource mobilization and use of domestic resources to pursue sustainable development. The first Sustainable Development Goal is to eradicate extreme poverty for all people everywhere by 2030. This paper explores how feasible it would be for developing countries to achieve the goal of eradicating poverty using only domestic resources, given their current tax base and political equilibrium. To answer this question, we propose two new metrics: a Poverty Eradication Capacity Index and a Political Influence Concentration Index. The first metric looks at the “arithmetics” of the issue, and uses an accounting approach to assess whether the existing tax base is rich enough to end poverty through monetary redistribution. The second metric looks at the “politics” of the issue, and approximates the degree to which political power is concentrated among the rich—following the notion that a high concentration of power would likely hinder the effective implementation of fiscal policies (in terms of both revenue collection and social spending). We calculate these two metrics using recent data for over 120 developing countries, and find that: (i) a large proportion of countries simply do not have an affluent enough tax base to finance their own poverty eradication through redistribution; (ii) countries with the same arithmetic capacity to mobilize resources for poverty eradication differ widely in terms of the political feasibility of such policies; and (iii) a higher capacity for poverty eradication and a lower concentration of political influence is associated with a higher collection of tax revenue as a share of GDP. These results suggest that countries facing binding arithmetic and/or political constraints may need to complement domestic resources with foreign aid in the short-term. Such financial flows, however, should be designed to support the reduction of these constraints in the long-term
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests: Immigration, Health Care, Economic Growth, Political Science, Human Development, and 15 moreFertility, Developing Countries, Alcohol, Environmental degradation, Early Pregnancy, Fertility Rate, Human reproduction, Infant Mortality, Dissemination, Economic Status, Child mortality, Fertility Rates, Gross Domestic Product, Opinion leaders, and Latin Americans
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
In this paper, we use a new database for Mexico to model the possible long-run effects of the pandemic on learning. First, based on the framework of Neidhöffer, Lustig, and Tommasi (2021), we estimate the loss of schooling due to the... more
In this paper, we use a new database for Mexico to model the possible long-run effects of the pandemic on learning. First, based on the framework of Neidhöffer, Lustig, and Tommasi (2021), we estimate the loss of schooling due to the transition from in-person to remote learning using data from the National Survey on Social Mobility (ESRU-EMOVI-2017), census data, and national statistics of COVID-19 incidence. In this estimation, we account for the attenuation capacity of households by econsidering the parental educational attainment and the economic resources available to the household in the calculation of the short-run cost. Secondly, we estimate the potential long-run consequences of this shock through a calibrated learning profile for five Mexican regions following Kaffenberger and Pritchett (2020a, 2020b). Assuming the distance learning policy adopted by the Mexican government is entirely effective, our results indicate that a learning loss equivalent to the learning during a third of a school year in the short run translates into a learning loss equivalent to an entire school year further up the educational career of students. On the other hand, if the policy was ineffective, the short-run loss increases to an entire school year and becomes a loss of two years of learning in the long run. Our results suggest substantial variation at the regional level, with the most affected region, the South experiencing a loss thrice as large as that of the least affected region, the Centre region.
Research Interests:
We apply a standard tax and benefit incidence analysis to estimate the impact on inequality and poverty of direct taxes, indirect taxes and subsidies, and social spending (cash and food transfers and in-kind transfers in education and... more
We apply a standard tax and benefit incidence analysis to estimate the impact on inequality and poverty of direct taxes, indirect taxes and subsidies, and social spending (cash and food transfers and in-kind transfers in education and health). The extent of inequality reduction induced by direct taxes and transfers is rather small (2 percentage points on average) especially when compared with that found in Western Europe (15 percentage points on average). What prevents Argentina, Bolivia and Brazil from achieving similar reductions in inequality is not the lack of revenues but the fact that they spend less on cash transfers-especially transfers that are progressive in absolute terms-as a share of GDP. Indirect taxes result in that net contributors to the fiscal system start at the fourth, third and even second decile on average, depending on the country. When in-kind transfers in education and health are added, however, the bottom six deciles are net recipients. The impact of transf...
At the core of poverty eradication is the need to eliminate that poverty that is persistent over time (chronic poverty). Unfortunately, traditional approaches to identifying chronic poverty require longitudinal data that is rarely... more
At the core of poverty eradication is the need to eliminate that poverty that is persistent over time (chronic poverty). Unfortunately, traditional approaches to identifying chronic poverty require longitudinal data that is rarely available. In its absence, this paper proposes an alternative approach that only requires 1 year of cross‐sectional data on monetary and non‐monetary poverty. It puts forth two conjectures and contends that the combined profile of a household as both income poor and multidimensionally poor can be used as a proxy of that household being chronically income poor. To explore the viability of this approach, we use a probit model and longitudinal data for three Latin American countries to estimate households’ probabilities of remaining in income poverty based on their past income and multidimensional poverty statuses. We find empirical support for the approach that is significant, consistent across countries, and robust to various controls and periods of analysis.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Starting from the aggregate, this report first describes how Pernambuco has fared with respect to the rest of Brazil, both in terms of economic and social welfare performance, over the last decade (2001-2012). In a context of widespread... more
Starting from the aggregate, this report first describes how Pernambuco has fared with respect to the rest of Brazil, both in terms of economic and social welfare performance, over the last decade (2001-2012). In a context of widespread economic growth, Pernambuco has done particularly well in recent years, similar to or above the national average. A key challenge concerns the longer-term, where – notwithstanding the positive performance of recent years-the same level of growth may not be as easily sustained. The solid economic performance has been reflected in an improvement of social indicators, also associated with the government's interiorizacao strategy, a policy developed explicitly to increase the coverage of public services in underserved areas, with a focus on the interior of the state. The decline in poverty rates displays a trajectory towards convergence with Brazil and recently, a faster than national decline of the Gini has brought Pernambuco's income inequality...
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests: Poverty, Health Care, Political Science, Human Development, Productivity, and 15 moreDeveloping Countries, Public Health, Human Resources, Pregnancy, Social Development, Reproductive health, Psychological Intervention, Risk factors, Rural Areas, Self Confidence, Fertility Rate, Infant Mortality, Dissemination, Risk Factors, and Latin Americans
Research Interests: Poverty, Health Care, Political Science, Human Development, Productivity, and 15 moreDeveloping Countries, Public Health, Human Resources, Social Mobility, Social Development, Reproductive health, Psychological Intervention, Risk factors, Rural Areas, Self Confidence, Fertility Rate, Infant Mortality, Dissemination, Risk Factors, and Latin Americans
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests: Development Economics, Social Policy, Rural, Economic Growth, Developing Countries, and 13 moreSocial Policies, Policy Analysis, Social Mobility, Inequality, Financial Instruments, Developing World, Social Conflict, Income, GDP, Empirical evidence, Purchasing Power Parity, Incomes, and Public Policy
bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Produced by the Research Support Team
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Over the last two decades, Mexico has experienced macroeconomic stability, an open trade regime, and substantial progress in education. Yet average workers’ earnings have stagnated, and earnings of those with higher schooling have fallen,... more
Over the last two decades, Mexico has experienced macroeconomic stability, an open trade regime, and substantial progress in education. Yet average workers’ earnings have stagnated, and earnings of those with higher schooling have fallen, compressing the earnings distribution and lowering the returns to education. This paper argues that distortions that misallocate resources toward less-productive firms explain these phenomena, because these firms are less intensive in well-educated workers compared with more-productive ones. It shows that while the relative supply of workers with more years of schooling has increased, misallocation of resources toward less-productive firms has persisted. These two trends have generated a widening mismatch between the supply of, and the demand for, educated workers. The paper breaks down worker earnings into observable and unobservable firm and individual worker characteristics, and computes a counterfactual earnings distribution in the absence of m...
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Privatization transactions have increased in number and amount during the last fifteen years. Two main forces have driven this: first, the fiscal problems that have forced governments to divest; and second, the fact that the development... more
Privatization transactions have increased in number and amount during the last fifteen years. Two main forces have driven this: first, the fiscal problems that have forced governments to divest; and second, the fact that the development of a vigorous private entrepreneurial sector has been shown to be a key element of successful/su stainable development policy. The literature documents the benefits of privatization at both the microeconomic and macroeconomic levels. Those benefits require, however, important institutional changes. This paper discusses different types of privatization methods. It argues that the method chosen by the privatizing authority determines to an important extent the likelihood of achieving the pre-established goals. The method is chosen as a function of the government's objectives and the specific political, institutional, and market-related constraints in the specific country situation. The paper examines the most commonly used methods: mass privatizati...
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Este artículo utiliza una metodología de estimación econométrica para incrementar tanto la precisión como el detalle en la medición del bienestar de la población de México, específicamente, del ingreso de los hogares. Al igual que otros... more
Este artículo utiliza una metodología de estimación econométrica para incrementar tanto la precisión como el detalle en la medición del bienestar de la población de México, específicamente, del ingreso de los hogares. Al igual que otros países, México ha contado desde hace varios años, por un lado, con encuestas de hogares que proporcionan una medición del ingreso de alta precisión, pero con muy limitadas posibilidades de desagregación geográfica, y por otro, con indicadores provenientes de los censos y conteos de población, que permiten una desagregación pormenorizada, pero que carecen de precisión en la medición, precisamente de la variable de ingresos. Utilizando los resultados estimados, presentamos la primera serie de ingresos per cápita de los hogares por entidad federativa, y por municipio y la primera serie de índices de desarrollo humano municipal.
Research Interests:
A partir de una definición de clase media que incluye a personas con baja probabilidad de caer en pobreza, este artículo presenta algunas tendencias para América Latina. El porcentaje de personas en clase media ha aumentado de 21.9% en... more
A partir de una definición de clase media que incluye a personas con baja probabilidad de caer en pobreza, este artículo presenta algunas tendencias para América Latina. El porcentaje de personas en clase media ha aumentado de 21.9% en 2000 a 34.3% en 2012, y desde el 2009 el tamaño de la clase media es mayor que el porcentaje de personas en pobreza. No obstante, formar parte de la clase media en América Latina sigue siendo una posición privilegiada. Los grupos en pobreza y vulnerabilidad concentran aún alrededor de dos terceras partes de la población total de la región. En este sentido, la región no se puede considerar una sociedad de clase media, al menos no por el momento.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
The Zapatista revolt in the Mexican state of Chiapas in 1994, which started the same day in which the NAFTA was officially implemented in the North American Region, made clear the Mexico was not one homogeneous country, but one... more
The Zapatista revolt in the Mexican state of Chiapas in 1994, which started the same day in which the NAFTA was officially implemented in the North American Region, made clear the Mexico was not one homogeneous country, but one characterized by important differences in development across regions. This paper analyzes the evolution of income inequality and polarization in 34 urban areas grouped into regions with similar characteristics. The richer regions, North and Center, also show higher degrees of inequality and lower polarization. The most polarized region is the South, also the poorest. Even more interesting, the polarization between regions has increased during the nineties. This may explain, at least partially, the increasing level of conflict in the south and the tension between regions during the negotiation of federal budget decentralization. The polarization measures used are those developed by Foster and Wolfson (1993) and Wolfson (1994), Esteban and Ray (1994), Kanbur an...
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
De manera similar al informa que elabora el Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo sobre el desarrollo humano en el mundo, ha sido trabajado el presente referido a México. Para definir el nivel de desarrollo humano la ONU... more
De manera similar al informa que elabora el Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo sobre el desarrollo humano en el mundo, ha sido trabajado el presente referido a México. Para definir el nivel de desarrollo humano la ONU considera tres elementos: la longevidad de la población, su formación escolar y su acceso a los satisfactores económicos.
Estudio de la percepción que tienen los pobres en México sobre su propia situación económica y sobre el papel que le asignan al Estado en la distribución de la riqueza y la consecución de la justicia.