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    P. Shukla

    The Climate negotiations in Copenhagen in December 2009 witnessed the emerging power of Brazil, South Africa, India, and China (BASIC). Although still focussed on domestic development goals, BASIC countries have made important steps... more
    The Climate negotiations in Copenhagen in December 2009 witnessed the emerging power of Brazil, South Africa, India, and China (BASIC). Although still focussed on domestic development goals, BASIC countries have made important steps toward a greater engagement in the global climate agenda. For India, the shift was marked by a voluntary, but conditional, target of reducing emission intensity, away from the past normative position based on “equal per capita,” emissions entitlements. The new track aims at finding cost-effective mitigation strategies that align national development goals and climate actions. This paper examines the mitigation potential of a domestic sustainable development policy using a suite of integrated assessment models. The long-term goal is to keep temperature increase below 2°C. This article shows that it is possible to match domestic development goals and climate mitigation. Win–win options exist and side benefits—in terms of energy security and local pollution—are important. However, development policies are not sufficient to achieve the desired emissions reductions. We find that it is necessary to introduce a constraint on the carbon budget. The price of carbon that emerges is however much lower than in a conventional mitigation scenario. Finally, this paper proposes to shift the negotiations away from the current climate-centric focus toward “development,” in order to reduce conflicts and deliver greater global and national benefits.
    ... a CO2 concentration stabilization at 480 ppmv, assuming that the contribution of non-CO2 gases and land-use change is 70 ... CLIMATE POLICY ... The transport sector accounts for a large share ofmitigation, which happens due to modal... more
    ... a CO2 concentration stabilization at 480 ppmv, assuming that the contribution of non-CO2 gases and land-use change is 70 ... CLIMATE POLICY ... The transport sector accounts for a large share ofmitigation, which happens due to modal shifts, reduced demand, and fuel switching. ...
    Page 1. Natural Gas in India: An Assessment of Demand from the Electricity Sector PR Shukla, Subash Dhar, David G. Victor, & Mike Jackson Working Paper #66 October 2007 Page 2. The Program on Energy and Sustainable ...
    ABSTRACT Cooperation of large developing countries such as India would be important in achieving a low carbon future, which can help in restricting the global temperature rise to 2 °C. Global modeling studies of such low carbon scenarios... more
    ABSTRACT Cooperation of large developing countries such as India would be important in achieving a low carbon future, which can help in restricting the global temperature rise to 2 °C. Global modeling studies of such low carbon scenarios point to a prominent role for renewable energy. This paper reports scenarios for a low carbon future in India. An integrated modeling framework is used for assessing the alternate development pathways having equal cumulative CO2 emissions. The modeling period ranges from 2005 to 2050. The first pathway assumes a conventional development pattern together with a carbon price that aligns India’s emissions to an optimal 450 ppmv CO2-eq. stabilization global response. The second emissions pathway assumes an underlying sustainable development pattern. A low carbon future will be good for renewable energy under both the development pathways, though the share of renewable energy will be higher under a sustainable pathway. Renewable energy faces competition from low carbon technologies like nuclear and carbon capture and storage in the electricity sector. Solar, wind, biomass, and biofuels emerge as the four competitive renewable energy choices for India. Renewable development however depends critically on the reduction in the costs and in the ability to integrate the intermittent renewables within the existing systems for which technology transfer and capacity building hold the key.