Aysit Tansel
Middle East Technical University, Economics, Faculty Member
T he purpose of this paper is to study the behaviour of imports and exports of Turkey at the aggregate level. We focus on the estimation of conventional aggregate import and export demand functions and hence on the determination of the... more
T he purpose of this paper is to study the behaviour of imports and exports of Turkey at the aggregate level. We focus on the estimation of conventional aggregate import and export demand functions and hence on the determination of the relevant price and income elasticities. The issues ...
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This paper presents regional and provincial data on the educational composition of Turkey’s labor force over time as well as estimates of the human capital stock measured as the average years of formal education received by the work... more
This paper presents regional and provincial data on the educational composition of Turkey’s labor force over time as well as estimates of the human capital stock measured as the average years of formal education received by the work force. The data set is comprised of the estimated human capital stock for the set of 67 provinces over the census years from 1970 to 1990. Although regional disparities have persisted, the data show significant improvements in the educational attainment of the labor force during the past two decades.
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Informality is a salient feature of labor market in Egypt as it is the case with many developing countries. This is the first study of the determinants of worker transitions between various labor market states using panel data of... more
Informality is a salient feature of labor market in Egypt as it is the case with many developing countries. This is the first study of the determinants of worker transitions between various labor market states using panel data of 2006-2012 from Egypt. We first develop transition probabilities by gender across different labor market states utilizing Markov transition processes. Next we identify the effects of individual, household, job characteristics and location on different mobility patterns by estimating a multinomial logit regression. The results point to the highly static nature of the Egyptian labor market. Government employment is the most persistent for both men and women and the out of labor force is the second most persistent labor market state for women. Further, gender age, education, experience and several sectors of economic activity are founded the determine the transition probabilities between various labor market states such as formal wage, informal wage, self-employment, unemployment government employment and out of labor market.
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This paper considers the private sector wage earners in Egypt and examines their wage distribution during 1998-2012 using Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey. We estimate Mincer wage equations both at the mean and at different quantiles of... more
This paper considers the private sector wage earners in Egypt and examines their wage distribution during 1998-2012 using Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey. We estimate Mincer wage equations both at the mean and at different quantiles of the wage distribution taking into account observable and unobservable characteristics using the panel feature of the data with a fixed effects model. We also consider the possibility of nonlinearity in covariate effects and estimate a variant of matching models. We find a persistent informal wage penalty in the face of extensive sensitivity checks. It is smaller when unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account and larger at the top than at the bottom of the conditional wage distribution. We also examine the informal wage penalty over time and in different sub-groups according to experience and education. The informal wage penalty has increased recently over time and is larger for the better educated but smaller for the more experienced.
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In this study, we examine the formal/informal sector earnings differentials in the Turkish labor market using detailed econometric methodologies and a novel panel data set drawn from the 2006-2009 Income and Living Conditions Survey... more
In this study, we examine the formal/informal sector earnings differentials in the Turkish labor market using detailed econometric methodologies and a novel panel data set drawn from the 2006-2009 Income and Living Conditions Survey (SILC). In particular, we test if there is evidence of traditional segmented labor markets theory which postulates that informal workers are typically subject to lower remuneration
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The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, caused enormous amounts of death and destruction, and exposed rampant government corruption involving construction and zoning code violations, as a factor magnifying the... more
The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, caused enormous amounts of death and destruction, and exposed rampant government corruption involving construction and zoning code violations, as a factor magnifying the disaster. The opposition parties and one of the incumbent parties which participated in previous national governments and held power in current and past municipal administrations were responsible
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Antalya and Muğla provinces located in southwestern Turkey have emerged as the new magnets for internal migration in the country. Characteristics of immigration from other provinces to these two are described, and analyzed in the context... more
Antalya and Muğla provinces located in southwestern Turkey have emerged as the new magnets for internal migration in the country. Characteristics of immigration from other provinces to these two are described, and analyzed in the context of the gravity model. The factors that affect the migration to Antalya and Muğla seem to be the same and their effects on the
1995 Turkish parliamentary election was held almost under the conditions of a controlled experiment. The unique cross-section data pertaining to this election and the economic and political conditions surrounding it were utilized to study... more
1995 Turkish parliamentary election was held almost under the conditions of a controlled experiment. The unique cross-section data pertaining to this election and the economic and political conditions surrounding it were utilized to study the relationship between the government=s economic performance and the vote shares of political parties. Turkish voters are found to be myopic, not looking back beyond the
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Research Interests: Economics, Public Economics, Environmental policy, Collective Action, Public Choice, and 34 moreSocial Security, Applied Economics, Wage bargaining, Life Satisfaction, Adverse Selection, Unemployment Duration, World Economics, Business and Management, Environmental Issues, Labor Market, Cluster Analysis, Standardisation, Gender Gap, Brain Drain, Propensity Score Matching, Collective Bargaining, Trade Union, Educational Attainment, Manpower, Environmental quality, Immigration Policy, Fair Value, Boolean Satisfiability, Environmental Taxes, Indexation, Union Membership, Labor Demand, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, GDP Growth, Wage Setting, Treatment Effect, National Minimum Wage, Optimal Income Taxation, and Conditional Independence
The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, not only caused enormous amounts of death, destruction and suffering, but also exposed rampant government corruption involving construction and zoning code violations.... more
The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, not only caused enormous amounts of death, destruction and suffering, but also exposed rampant government corruption involving construction and zoning code violations. The incompetence shown by the government in providing relief, the corruption allegations in regards to those efforts, and government’s failure to prosecute corrupt officials and businessmen, further angered the public. How voters responded to these in the 2002 parliamentary election is investigated, using cross-provincial data, and controlling for other social, political and economic factors. Our results show that voters held accountable all of the political parties which participated in governments during the last decade or so, and not just the incumbents in 2002. The party in charge of the ministry responsible for earthquake relief, and parties that served longest and controlled more of the city administrations in the quake zone were blamed more. Th...
This study exposes a comparative treatment of the private returns to education in Palestine and Turkey over the period 2004-2008. Comparable data, similar definitions and same methodology are used in the estimations. The results suggest... more
This study exposes a comparative treatment of the private returns to education in Palestine and Turkey over the period 2004-2008. Comparable data, similar definitions and same methodology are used in the estimations. The results suggest that returns to schooling are higher for Turkey at the various levels of education for females and males and for both years 2004 and 2008. In 2008, returns are lower than 2004 levels for all stages of education. Returns to education are higher for women than men in both countries. The median ratio of male to female return is 0.55 (university) in 2004 and decreased to 0.17 (high school) in 2008 in Palestine. The corresponding figures for Turkey are 0.79 and .082 (both for high school). Finally, it was found that the selectivity corrected return estimates are lower than the OLS estimates in Palestine while they are higher than the OLS estimates in Turkey.
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Türkiye’den ilk beyin göçü dalgası 1960’larda başladı. İlk göçenler doktorlar ve mühendisler oldu. Son yıllarda dikkatler, yaşanmakta olan iktisadi bunalım sonucunda meslek yaşamlarına yurt dışında başlamayı ciddi biçimde düşünmekte olan,... more
Türkiye’den ilk beyin göçü dalgası 1960’larda başladı. İlk göçenler doktorlar ve mühendisler oldu. Son yıllarda dikkatler, yaşanmakta olan iktisadi bunalım sonucunda meslek yaşamlarına yurt dışında başlamayı ciddi biçimde düşünmekte olan, üniversiteyi yeni bitirmiş gençlere çevrildi. Bu amacı gerçekleştirmek isteyenlerin pek çoğu için yurt dışında lisans üstü öğrenim ilk adımı oluşturuyor. Bu araştırma, yurt dışında okuyan Türk öğrencilerin geri dönme niyetleri konusunda, 2002 yılının ilk yarısında yapılmış bir anketin sonuçları üstüne bir değerlendirme ortaya koymaktadır. Öğrencilerin geri dönmeyişinde önemli olduğuna işaret edilen çeşitli etkenler arasında siyasal duraysızlık, ücretlerin düşüklüğü ve öğrenimin tamamlandığı anayurtta iş olanaklarının azlığı yanında, yurt dışında yaşamayı yeğlemek de bulunmaktadır. Türkiye’den beyin göçünü açıklamada, bu etkenlere ek olarak Türkiye’nin iktisadının başka bazı özellikleri de ele alınmaktadır.
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Recently, there has been an upsurge of empirical studies that test the convergence prediction of the neoclassical growth theory at the country, regional, state or provincial levels. These studies examine whether poorer economies will... more
Recently, there has been an upsurge of empirical studies that test the convergence prediction of the neoclassical growth theory at the country, regional, state or provincial levels. These studies examine whether poorer economies will eventually catch up with richer ones in terms of both income levels and income growth. This study examines whether the less developed provinces are converging in labor productivity levels and productivity growth rates with the richer provinces in Turkey. The main finding is that there is absolute convergence in productivities across the provinces of Turkey. The convergence rate is faster in the 1980-95 period of economic and financial liberalization than in the 1975-95 period. Accounting for the differences in steady states and accounting for human capital, they are both found to increase the speed of convergence. Faster convergence rates are found for the somewhat homogenous relatively poorer and relatively richer provinces than for the total set of pr...
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this study examines the role that sectors play in aggregate convergence of provincial labor productivity across the 67 provinces of turkey during the 1975-1990 period. a markov chain model is applied to characterize the long-run... more
this study examines the role that sectors play in aggregate convergence of provincial labor productivity across the 67 provinces of turkey during the 1975-1990 period. a markov chain model is applied to characterize the long-run tendencies of productivity both at the aggregate and sectoral levels. in order to determine the likely sources of aggregate fluctuations, sectoral time-invariant distributions are compared with the aggregate distribution, and those sectors that exhibit similar distribution patterns as that of the aggregate distribution are characterized as dominant sectors. evidence strongly suggests that the aggregate time-invariant distribution is determined mainly by the agricultural, industrial and transportation sectors. specifically, the pattern of polarization of productivity levels in these three sectors is very similar to the pattern prevailing at the aggregate level. the results suggest that, in the long run, two convergence clubs are likely to emerge - one for the...
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This paper attempts to measure the impact of apprenticeship training and course attendance programs on the probability of employment. For this purpose, 1997 Household Labor Force Survey which has a special education module is used. Probit... more
This paper attempts to measure the impact of apprenticeship training and course attendance programs on the probability of employment. For this purpose, 1997 Household Labor Force Survey which has a special education module is used. Probit models of employment are estimated for females and males separately. Both the apprenticeship training and the course attendence are found to have a positive