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    Zulfi Bhutta

    Primary health care was ratifi ed as the health policy of WHO member states in 1978.1 Participation in health care was a key principle in the Alma-Ata Declaration. In developing countries, antenatal, delivery, and postnatal experiences... more
    Primary health care was ratifi ed as the health policy of WHO member states in 1978.1 Participation in health care was a key principle in the Alma-Ata Declaration. In developing countries, antenatal, delivery, and postnatal experiences for women usually take place in communities rather than health facilities. Strategies to improve maternal and child health should therefore involve the community as a complement to any facility-based component. The fourth article of the Declaration stated that, “people have the right and duty to participate individually and collectively in the planning and implementation of their health care”, and the seventh article stated that primary health care “requires and promotes maximum community and individual self-reliance and participation in the planning, organization, operation and control of primary health care”. But is community participation an essential prerequisite for better health outcomes or simply a useful but non-essential companion to the deli...
    ABSTRACTBackgroundChronic malnutrition among infants and children continues to represent a global public health concern. The Kyrgyz Republic has achieved rapid declines in stunting over the last 20 y, despite modest increases in gross... more
    ABSTRACTBackgroundChronic malnutrition among infants and children continues to represent a global public health concern. The Kyrgyz Republic has achieved rapid declines in stunting over the last 20 y, despite modest increases in gross domestic product per capita.ObjectiveThis study aimed to conduct a systematic, in-depth assessment of national, community, household, and individual drivers of nutrition change and stunting reduction, as well as nutrition-specific and -sensitive policies and programs, in the Kyrgyz Republic.MethodsThis mixed methods study employed 4 inquiry methods, including: 1) a systematic scoping literature review; 2) retrospective quantitative data analyses, including linear regression multivariable hierarchical modeling, difference-in-difference analysis, and Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition; 3) qualitative data collection and analysis; and 4) analysis of key nutrition-specific and -sensitive policies and programs.ResultsStunting prevalence has decreased in the Kyrgy...
    To assess how quality and availability of reproductive, maternal, neonatal (RMNH) services vary by district wealth and urban/rural status in Zambia. We conducted a retrospective analysis of data from the Millennium Development Goal... more
    To assess how quality and availability of reproductive, maternal, neonatal (RMNH) services vary by district wealth and urban/rural status in Zambia. We conducted a retrospective analysis of data from the Millennium Development Goal Acceleration Initiative baseline assessment of 117 health facilities in 9 districts. Quality was assessed through a composite score of 23 individual RMNH indicators, ranging from 0 to 1. Availability was evaluated by density of providers and facilities. Districts were divided into wealth groups based on the multidimensional poverty index (MPI). Relative inequity was calculated using the concentration index for quality indicators (positive favours rich, negative favours poor). Multivariable linear regression was performed for the dependent variable composite quality indicator using MPI, urban/rural, and facility level of care as independent variables. 13 hospitals, 85 health centres and 19 health posts were included. The RMNH composite quality indicator wa...
    The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the... more
    The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013. GBD 2013 includes an annual assessment covering 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. The study covers 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. Our GBD 2013 analyses included the addition of new data through updated systematic reviews and through the contribution of unpublished data sources from collaborators, an updated version of modelling software, and several improvements in our methods. In this systemati...
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    In 2013, an estimated 2.8 million newborns died and 2.7 million were stillborn. A much greater number suffer from long term impairment associated with preterm birth, intrauterine growth restriction, congenital anomalies, and perinatal or... more
    In 2013, an estimated 2.8 million newborns died and 2.7 million were stillborn. A much greater number suffer from long term impairment associated with preterm birth, intrauterine growth restriction, congenital anomalies, and perinatal or infectious causes. With the approaching deadline for the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2015, there was a need to set the new research priorities on newborns and stillbirth with a focus not only on survival but also on health, growth and development. We therefore carried out a systematic exercise to set newborn health research priorities for 2013-2025. We used adapted Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) methods for this prioritization exercise. We identified and approached the 200 most productive researchers and 400 program experts, and 132 of them submitted research questions online. These were collated into a set of 205 research questions, sent for scoring to the 600 identified experts, and were assess...
    Small-for-gestational-age (SGA) and preterm births are associated with adverse health consequences, including neonatal and infant mortality, childhood undernutrition, and adulthood chronic disease. The specific aims of this study were to... more
    Small-for-gestational-age (SGA) and preterm births are associated with adverse health consequences, including neonatal and infant mortality, childhood undernutrition, and adulthood chronic disease. The specific aims of this study were to estimate the association between short maternal stature and outcomes of SGA alone, preterm birth alone, or both, and to calculate the population attributable fraction of SGA and preterm birth associated with short maternal stature. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis with the use of data sets from 12 population-based cohort studies and the WHO Global Survey on Maternal and Perinatal Health (13 of 24 available data sets used) from low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). We included those with weight taken within 72 h of birth, gestational age, and maternal height data (n = 177,000). For each of these studies, we individually calculated RRs between height exposure categories of <145 cm, 145 to <150 cm, and 150 to <155 c...
    In 2013, an estimated 2.8 million newborns died and 2.7 million were stillborn. A much greater number suffer from long term impairment associated with preterm birth, intrauterine growth restriction, congenital anomalies, and perinatal or... more
    In 2013, an estimated 2.8 million newborns died and 2.7 million were stillborn. A much greater number suffer from long term impairment associated with preterm birth, intrauterine growth restriction, congenital anomalies, and perinatal or infectious causes. With the approaching deadline for the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2015, there was a need to set the new research priorities on newborns and stillbirth with a focus not only on survival but also on health, growth and development. We therefore carried out a systematic exercise to set newborn health research priorities for 2013-2025. We used adapted Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) methods for this prioritization exercise. We identified and approached the 200 most productive researchers and 400 program experts, and 132 of them submitted research questions online. These were collated into a set of 205 research questions, sent for scoring to the 600 identified experts, and were assess...
    Vitamin A deficiency is a risk factor for blindness and for mortality from measles and diarrhoea in children aged 6-59 months. We aimed to estimate trends in the prevalence of vitamin A deficiency between 1991 and 2013 and its mortality... more
    Vitamin A deficiency is a risk factor for blindness and for mortality from measles and diarrhoea in children aged 6-59 months. We aimed to estimate trends in the prevalence of vitamin A deficiency between 1991 and 2013 and its mortality burden in low-income and middle-income countries. We collated 134 population-representative data sources from 83 countries with measured serum retinol concentration data. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of vitamin A deficiency, defined as a serum retinol concentration lower than 0·70 μmol/L. We estimated the relative risks (RRs) for the effects of vitamin A deficiency on mortality from measles and diarrhoea by pooling effect sizes from randomised trials of vitamin A supplementation. We used information about prevalences of deficiency, RRs, and number of cause-specific child deaths to estimate deaths attributable to vitamin A deficiency. All analyses included a systematic quantification of uncertainty. In 1991, 39% (95...
    The World Health Organization (WHO) in 2008 recommended the use of currently licensed typhoid vaccines using a high risk or targeted approach. The epidemiology of disease and the vaccine characteristics make school-based vaccination most... more
    The World Health Organization (WHO) in 2008 recommended the use of currently licensed typhoid vaccines using a high risk or targeted approach. The epidemiology of disease and the vaccine characteristics make school-based vaccination most feasible in reducing typhoid disease burden in many settings. To assess feasibility of school-based typhoid vaccination, two districts in Kathmandu, Nepal and two towns in Karachi, Pakistan were selected for pilot program. Vaccination campaigns were conducted through the departments of health and in partnerships with not-for-profit organizations. In total 257,015 doses of Vi polysaccharide vaccine were given to students in grades 1-10 of participating schools. The vaccination coverage ranged from 39 percent (38,389/99,503) in Gulshan town in Karachi, to 81 percent (62,615/77,341) in Bhaktapur in Kathmandu valley. No serious adverse event was reported post vaccination. The coverage increased for vaccination of the second district in Pakistan as well as in Nepal. There was an initial concern of vaccine safety. However, as the campaign progressed, parents were more comfortable with vaccinating their children in schools. Supported and conducted by departments of health in Pakistan and Nepal, a school-based typhoid vaccination was found to be safe and feasible.
    A new Global Investment Framework for... more
    A new Global Investment Framework for Women's and Children's Health demonstrates how investment in…
    Newborn deaths account for 57% of deaths in children younger than 5 years in Pakistan. Although a large programme of trained lady health workers (LHWs) exists, the effectiveness of this training on newborn outcomes has not been studied.... more
    Newborn deaths account for 57% of deaths in children younger than 5 years in Pakistan. Although a large programme of trained lady health workers (LHWs) exists, the effectiveness of this training on newborn outcomes has not been studied. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a community-based intervention package, principally delivered through LHWs working with traditional birth attendants and community health committees, for reduction of perinatal and neonatal mortality in a rural district of Pakistan. We undertook a cluster randomised trial between February, 2006, and March, 2008, in Hala and Matiari subdistricts, Pakistan. Catchment areas of primary care facilities and all affiliated LHWs were used to define clusters, which were allocated to intervention and control groups by restricted, stratified randomisation. The intervention package delivered by LHWs through group sessions consisted of promotion of antenatal care and maternal health education, use of clean delivery kits, ...
    BACKGROUND: Household-level geographic information systems (GIS) database are usually constructed using the geographic positioning system (GPS). In some research settings, GPS receivers may fail to capture accurate readings due to... more
    BACKGROUND: Household-level geographic information systems (GIS) database are usually constructed using the geographic positioning system (GPS). In some research settings, GPS receivers may fail to capture accurate readings due to structural barriers such as tall buildings. We faced this problem when constructing a household GIS database for research sites in Karachi, Pakistan because the sites are comprised of congested groups of multi-storied building and narrow lanes. In order to overcome this problem, we used high resolution satellite imagery (IKONOS) to extract relevant geographic information. RESULTS: The use of IKONOS satellite imagery allowed us to construct an accurate household GIS database, which included the size and orientation of the houses. The GIS database was then merged with health data, and spatial analysis of health was possible. CONCLUSIONS: The methodological issues introduced in this paper provide solutions to the technical barriers in constructing household G...
    To determine the safety and logistic feasibility of a mass immunization strategy outside the local immunization program in the pediatric population of urban squatter settlements in Karachi, Pakistan. A cluster-randomized double blind... more
    To determine the safety and logistic feasibility of a mass immunization strategy outside the local immunization program in the pediatric population of urban squatter settlements in Karachi, Pakistan. A cluster-randomized double blind preventive trial was launched in August 2003 in 60 geographic clusters covering 21,059 children ages 2 to 16 years. After consent was obtained from parents or guardians, eligible children were immunized parenterally at vaccination posts in each cluster with Vi polysaccharide or hepatitis A vaccine. Safety, logistics, and standards were monitored and documented. The vaccine coverage of the population was 74% and was higher in those under age 10 years. No life-threatening serious adverse events were reported. Adverse events occurred in less than 1% of all vaccine recipients and the main reactions reported were fever and local pain. The proportion of adverse events in Vi polysaccharide and hepatitis A recipients will not be known until the end of the trial...
    ABSTRACT Background The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100 000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure... more
    ABSTRACT Background The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100 000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery. Methods We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990—2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values. Findings 292 982 (95% UI 261 017—327 792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376 034 (343 483—407 574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was −0·3% (—1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and −2·7% (—3·9 to −1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290—2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2—0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1—1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6—3·6) in Iceland. Interpretation Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa.
    National estimates for the numbers of babies born small for gestational age and the comorbidity with preterm birth are unavailable. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of term and preterm babies born small for gestational age (term-SGA... more
    National estimates for the numbers of babies born small for gestational age and the comorbidity with preterm birth are unavailable. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of term and preterm babies born small for gestational age (term-SGA and preterm-SGA), and the relation to low birthweight (<2500 g), in 138 countries of low and middle income in 2010. Small for gestational age was defined as lower than the 10th centile for fetal growth from the 1991 US national reference population. Data from 22 birth cohort studies (14 low-income and middle-income countries) and from the WHO Global Survey on Maternal and Perinatal Health (23 countries) were used to model the prevalence of term-SGA births. Prevalence of preterm-SGA infants was calculated from meta-analyses. In 2010, an estimated 32·4 million infants were born small for gestational age in low-income and middle-income countries (27% of livebirths), of whom 10·6 million infants were born at term and low birthweight. The prevalence of ...
    We conducted a cross sectional survey of 3163 women and men in six Asian countries to examine willingness for children and adults to be vaccinated against shigellosis and other forms of dysentery. The six sites were clustered into three... more
    We conducted a cross sectional survey of 3163 women and men in six Asian countries to examine willingness for children and adults to be vaccinated against shigellosis and other forms of dysentery. The six sites were clustered into three regions for ease of comparison. The regions are: Northeast Asia (China), Southeast Asia (Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia) and South Asia (Bangladesh and Pakistan). We used multiple logistic regression to identify region-specific models for vaccination willingness for both adults and children. A vaccine to protect against dysentery, if available would be very much in demand throughout the three Asian regions for children. For adults, the responses indicate that vaccine uptake by adults will vary. A large proportion of respondents in all regions, specifically in China, do not perceive themselves at risk yet still consider a shigellosis vaccine desirable.
    In July 2002 and June 2003, cholera outbreaks were detected by a diarrhoea surveillance system in a village outside Karachi, Pakistan. Specimens were culture confirmed. The first outbreak was caused by Vibrio cholerae O139 (n = 30) and... more
    In July 2002 and June 2003, cholera outbreaks were detected by a diarrhoea surveillance system in a village outside Karachi, Pakistan. Specimens were culture confirmed. The first outbreak was caused by Vibrio cholerae O139 (n = 30) and the second outbreak by V. cholerae O1 (n = 39). Demographic and clinical features of patients were recorded and case-control studies were conducted following each outbreak. Clinical information was obtained for 29 of the 30 patients in the first outbreak, and 2 of the patients in the second outbreak were either out of the area or lost to follow-up, leaving 29 and 37 cases in the analysis for the first and second outbreak, respectively. Eighteen (49%) of the 37 V. cholerae O1 patients were under 2 years of age compared with 6 (21%) of the 29 V. cholerae O139 patients (P = 0.02). Vibrio cholerae O139-infected patients were more likely to be febrile (16/29) than those infected with V. cholerae O1 (2/37; P<0.001). A household contact with cholera was a risk factor in both outbreaks; water source was a risk factor in the first outbreak only. Geographically, cases were clustered during the first outbreak but not during the second. Person-to-person contact and water reservoirs appear to be the main transmission routes for cholera in this setting.
    A longitudinal cohort study was conducted at Camp Hospital Batagram in August 2006 to ascertain the effect of Zinc utilization in tablet and suspension formulations on the frequency and recovery rates of diarrhoea among young children in... more
    A longitudinal cohort study was conducted at Camp Hospital Batagram in August 2006 to ascertain the effect of Zinc utilization in tablet and suspension formulations on the frequency and recovery rates of diarrhoea among young children in the emergency settings of earthquake affected region of Pakistan. Two hundred patients were recruited and followed up, the patients were allocated either of the 2 groups i.e. A (zinc in tablets form) and B (zinc in suspension form). Both groups also received WHO recommended treatment for diarrhoea. Most of the cases recovered from the illness within 3 days after presentation. Significant p-values were established among Zinc use and reduction in frequency of stools on Day 2 and 3, with better outcome in group B. The study supports the notion that zinc reduces the frequency and improves recovery rates of diarrhoea in any form and has better compliance and outcomes with the use in suspension form.

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