Phoebe Barnard

Despite a numerical and functional dependence on microtine mammals, breeding northern harriers (Circus cyaneus) in New Brunswick preyed upon large numbers of young passerine birds following the hatch of their own nestlings. An independent index of juvenile passerine availability showed that harrier pairs switched to young passerines as soon as they became available, and not simply because their own young had hatched. Many nests in which young hatched during the period of juvenile passerine availability had high fledging success, but the mean was significantly lower than that of early nests. A seasonal decline in success was highly significant, so if an adaptive temporal breeding strategy exists, it may simply be to breed early if possible and, if not, to coincide with the flush of passerines. We conclude that the coincidence of harrier and passerine prey nesting seasons is as likely to be fortuitous as strategic.

We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as both opportunities and risks. A diverse international team with collective expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy reviewed 100 potential issues and identified 15 that qualified as emerging, with potential substantial global effects. These issues include new developments in energy storage and fuel production, sand extraction, potential solutions to combat coral bleaching and invasive marine species, and blockchain technology.

ABSTRACT Abstract Estimates of bird numbers through quantification of density and range sizes are necessary for decisions regarding conservation status, yet counts of birds are often confounded by uncertainty of detection. The status of the endemic birds of the fynbos biome is of interest due to their conservation value in a global biodiversity hotspot, the ecological services they provide, and their importance for the avitourism industry. We conducted an extensive repeated point count survey in 2013 across the fynbos biome, South Africa, to determine probability of detection and covariates of site occupancy for 27 bird species, including 6 fynbos endemics. Detection of most species was influenced by time, temperature or vegetation height. Important covariates influencing site occupancy were vegetation height, altitude, time since fire and habitat type. Site occupancy for four fynbos endemic species was positively associated with increasing altitude. We further conducted point counts and mist-netting in eastern regions of the fynbos to calculate local density and standardized capture rates. A linear regression analysis showed that capture rates were a function of bird densities, but that several species were captured at higher rates than expected, notably nectarivorous species. During mist-netting a relative abundance count was conducted. We expected deviation of the fit of the regression of capture rates on relative abundance to correlate with detection probability, as we expect this index to underestimate skulking and cryptic species, but there was no correlation. Estimated species richness indices were highest for the biome-wide survey, and lowest for mist-netting due to the body size limit posed by the capture technique. Overall, we show that point counts are an effective method for surveying birds in the fynbos and that mist-netting can be used to create an index of relative abundance for smaller species, but that this can be affected by subjective placement of nets.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-climate-emergency-2020-in-review/

Despite some promising developments, the need for action has grown even more urgent. The climate emergency has arrived and is accelerating more rapidly than most scientists anticipated, and many of them are deeply concerned. The adverse effects of climate change are much more severe than expected, and now threaten both the biosphere and humanity. There is mounting evidence linking increases in extreme weather frequency and intensity to climate change. The year 2020, one of the hottest years on record, also saw extraordinary wildfire activity in the Western United States and Australia, a Siberian heat wave with record high temperatures exceeding 38 degrees C (100.4 degrees Fahrenheit) within the Arctic circle, a record low for October Arctic sea ice extent of 2.04 million square miles, an Atlantic hurricane season resulting in more than $46 billion in damage, and deadly floods and landslides in South Asia that displaced more than 12 million people.

Every effort must be made to reduce emissions and increase removals of atmospheric carbon in order to restore the melting Arctic and end the deadly cycle of damage that the current climate is delivering. Scientists now find that catastrophic climate change could render a significant portion of the Earth uninhabitable consequent to continued high emissions, self-reinforcing climate feedback loops and looming tipping points. To date, 1,859 jurisdictions in 33 countries have issued climate emergency declarations covering more than 820 million people.

In January 2020, we warned of untold human suffering in a report titled World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency with more than 11,000 scientist signatories from 153 countries at time of publication. As an Alliance of World Scientists, we continue to collect signatures from scientists, with now more than 13,700 signatories. In our paper, we presented graphs showing vital signs of very troubling climate change trends with little progress by humanity. Based on these trends and scientists’ moral obligation to “clearly warn humanity of any catastrophic threat” and to “tell it like it is,” we declared a climate emergency and proposed policy suggestions. We called for transformative change with six steps involving energy, short-lived air pollutants, nature, food, economy and population. A short video discussion by thought leaders on the six steps is now available (see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEHot7F_dnI&feature=emb_imp_woyt).

Here, we investigate progress for these six steps during 2020. We have seen a few promising developments on energy, nature and food. Impressively, the European Union is on track to meet its emissions reduction goal for 2020 and become zero net carbon by 2050; however, this goal will still increase temperatures from the damaging levels of today. We are also encouraged by the recent trend of governments committing to zero net carbon, including China by 2060 and Japan by 2050. Similar pledges have been made by the United Kingdom, many subnational governments and some corporations, although there is mounting evidence that a 2050 or later target may be inadequate and net zero carbon should be reached much earlier, for example, by 2030.

U.S. President-elect Joe Biden has pledged that the U.S. will rejoin the Paris agreement and proposed a $2 trillion climate plan to phase down fossil fuels by expanding renewable energy capacity while creating jobs, reducing pollution and investing in historically disadvantaged communities. It is critically important to significantly reduce CO2 emissions while simultaneously increasing carbon accumulation by forests, mangroves, wetlands and other ecosystems. Progress for nature came in the form of the Bonn Challenge to restore forest and other ecosystems, but much more investment is needed in natural climate solutions. Global meat consumption, which must be reduced for climate mitigation, is expected to decline 3 percent this year, largely as a result of COVID-19. While likely a temporary decline, this coincides with increasingly popular meat substitutes; annual U.S. sales are projected to reach $1 billion in 2020.

Although lockdowns associated with the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a decrease in CO2 emissions of 7 percent in 2020, this reduction is unlikely to be long-lived because there has been no major concurrent shift in the way we produce energy. This drop in emissions was a tiny blip compared to the cumulative buildup of greenhouse gases, which has led to all five of the hottest years on record occurring since 2015. In fact, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 continued to rise rapidly in 2020 reaching a record high in September. COVID-19 also led to a one year postponement of the COP26 United Nations climate change conference, after the 2019 failure of the COP25 conference to make meaningful progress. We are concerned that no major industrialized country is on track to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C, the target of the Paris Agreement. Instead, the actions of many wealthy countries—including the U.S. —are consistent with greater than three degrees C warming. Unfortunately, progress in 2020 has also been limited in the areas of short-lived air pollutants, the economy and population.

As we move into 2021 and beyond, we need a massive-scale mobilization to address the climate crisis, including much more progress on the six steps of climate change mitigation. Key actions for each step include the following:


    Energy. Swiftly phasing out fossil fuels is a top priority. This can be achieved through a multipronged strategy based on rapidly transitioning to low-carbon renewables such as solar and wind power, implementing massive conservation practices, and imposing carbon fees high enough to curtail the use of fossil fuels.
    Short-lived pollutants. Quickly cutting emissions of methane, black carbon (soot), hydrofluorocarbons and other short-lived climate pollutants is vital. It can dramatically reduce the short-term rate of warming, which may otherwise be difficult to affect. Specific actions to address short-lived pollutants include reducing methane emissions from landfills and the energy sector (methane), promoting improved clean cookstoves (soot) and developing better refrigerant options and management (hydrofluorocarbons).
    Nature. We must restore and protect natural ecosystems such as forests, mangroves, wetlands and grasslands, allowing these ecosystems to reach their ecological potential for sequestering carbon dioxide. The logging of the Amazon, tropical forests in Southeast Asia, and other rainforests including the proposed cutting in the Tongass National Forest of Alaska is especially devastating to the climate. Creation of new protected areas, including strategic forest carbon reserves, should be a top priority. Payment for ecosystem services programs offer an equitable way for wealthier nations to help protect natural ecosystems.
    Food. A dietary shift toward eating more plant-based foods and consuming fewer animal products, especially beef, would significantly reduce emissions of methane and other greenhouse gases. It would also free up agricultural lands for growing human food and, potentially, reforestation (“Nature” step). Relevant policy actions include minimizing tillage to maximize soil carbon, cutting livestock subsidies and supporting research and development of environmentally friendly meat substitutes. Reducing food waste is also critical, given that at least one third of all food produced is wasted.
    Economy. We must transition to a carbon-free economy that reflects our dependence on the biosphere. Exploitation of ecosystems for profit absolutely must be halted for long-term sustainability. While this is a broad, holistic step involving ecological economics, there are specific actions that support this transition. Examples include cutting subsidies to and divesting from the fossil fuel industry.
    Population. The global human population, growing by more than 200,000 people per day, must be stabilized and gradually reduced using approaches that ensure social and economic justice such as supporting education for all girls and women, and increasing the availability of voluntary family planning services.

These steps synergize with each other and together ensure a sustainable future. They also have many co-benefits beyond climate mitigation. For example, stabilizing human population size can improve climate adaptation capacity in the event of declining crop yields. Similarly, plant-rich diets offer significant benefits for human health.

The survival of our society as we know it depends upon this unprecedented change.

To secure a sustainable future, we must change how we live, in ways that improve the vital signs summarized by our graphs. Economic and population growth are among the most important drivers of increases in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion (Pachauri et al. 2014, Bongaarts and O’Neill 2018); therefore, we need bold and drastic transformations regarding economic and population policies. We
suggest six critical and interrelated steps (in no particular order) that governments, businesses, and the rest of humanity can take to lessen the worst effects of climate change. These are important steps but are not the only actions needed or possible (Pachauri et al. 2014, IPCC 2018, 2019). 1.  Energy:  The world must quickly implement massive energy efficiency and conservation practices and must replace fossil fuels with low-carbon renewables (figure 1h) and other cleaner sources of energy if safe for people and the environment (figure S2). We should leave remaining stocks of fossil fuels in the ground (see the timelines in
IPCC 2018) and should carefully pursue effective negative emissions using technology such as carbon extraction from the source and capture from the air and especially by enhancing natural systems (see “Nature” section).  Wealthier countries need to support poorer nations in transitioning away from fossil fuels. We must swiftly eliminate subsidies for fossil fuels (figure 1o) and use effective and fair policies for steadily escalating carbon prices to restrain their use. 2. Short-lived pollutants:
We need to promptly reduce the emissions of short-lived climate pollutants, including methane (figure 2b), black carbon (soot), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Doing this could slow climate feedback loops and potentially reduce the short-term warming trend by more than 50% over the next few decades while saving millions of lives and increasing crop yields due to reduced air pollution (Shindell et al.
2017). The 2016 Kigali amendment to phase down HFCs is welcomed.  3. Nature:  We must protect and restore Earth’s ecosystems. Phytoplankton, coral reefs, forests, savannas, grasslands, wetlands,
peatlands, soils, mangroves, and sea grasses contribute greatly to sequestration of atmospheric CO2. Marine and terrestrial plants,  animals, and microorganisms play significant roles in carbon and nutrient cycling and storage. We need to quickly curtail habitat and biodiversity loss (figure 1f–1g), protecting the remaining primary and
intact forests, especially those with high carbon stores and other forests
with the capacity to rapidly sequester carbon (proforestation), while increasing reforestation and afforestation  here appropriate at enormous scales. Although available land may be limiting in places, up to a third of emissions reductions needed by 2030 for the Paris agreement (less than 2°C) could be obtained with these natural climate solutions (Griscom et al. 2017).  4. Food:  Eating mostly plant-based foods while reducing the global consumption of animal products (figure 1c–d), especially ruminant livestock (Ripple et al. 2014), can improve human health and significantly lower GHG emissions (including methane in the “Short-lived pollutants” step). Moreover, this will free up croplands for growing much-needed human plant food instead of livestock feed, while releasing some grazing land to support natural climate solutions (see “Nature” section).  Cropping practices such as minimum tillage that increase soil carbon are vitally important. We need to drastically reduce the enormous amount of food waste around the world.  5. Economy:  Excessive extraction of materials and overexploitation of ecosystems, driven by economic growth, must be quickly curtailed to maintain long-term sustainability of the biosphere. We need a carbon-free economy that explicitly addresses human dependence on the biosphere and policies that guide economic decisions accordingly. Our goals need to shift from GDP growth and the pursuit of affluence toward sustaining ecosystems and improving human well-being by prioritizing basic needs and reducing inequality.  6. Population: Still increasing by roughly 80 million people per year, or more than 200,000 per day (figure 1a–b), the world population must be stabilized—and, ideally, gradually reduced—within a framework that ensures social integrity.  There are proven and effective policies
that strengthen human rights while lowering fertility rates and lessening
the impacts of population growth on GHG emissions and biodiversity loss.  These policies make family-planning services available to all people, remove barriers to their access and achieve full gender equity, including primary and secondary education as a global norm for all, especially girls and young women (Bongaarts and O’Neill 2018).  CONCLUSIONS:  Mitigating and adapting to climate change while honoring the diversity of humans entails major transformations in the ways our global society functions and interacts with natural ecosystems. We are encouraged by a recent surge of concern. Governmental
bodies are making climate emergency declarations. Schoolchildren are striking. Ecocide lawsuits are proceeding in the courts. Grassroots citizen movements are demanding change, and many countries, states and provinces, cities, and businesses are responding.  As the Alliance of World Scientists, we stand ready to assist decision-makers in a just transition to a sustainable and equitable future. We urge widespread
use of vital signs, which will better allow policymakers, the private sector, and the public to understand the magnitude of this crisis, track progress, and realign priorities for alleviating climate change. The good news is that such transformative change, with social and economic justice for all, promises far greater human well-being than does business as usual. We believe that the prospects will be greatest if decision-makers and
all of humanity promptly respond to this warning and declaration of a climate emergency and act to sustain life on planet Earth, our only home.

It is a hard reality that virtually all countries, no matter how well resourced, take conservation and land use decisions based on highly patchy and imperfect data-if indeed any data at all. Despite a mushrooming of scientific evidence and journals in the past decade, and open-access provision of many expensive global datasets, developing countries in particular often have to make do with inaccurate and coarse-scale global data, in the absence of targeted, local data to solve immediate conservation problems. To what extent can citizen science data compensate for the patchiness of conventional government-gathered scientific data in order to support planning, policy and management? We demonstrate how southern Africa's citizen science-based " early warning system for biodiversity " is used to support land-use planning and conservation decisions, including Red List, strategic and project based environmental impact assessments and national protected area expansion and implementation strategies. This system integrates volunteer-based species atlases such as the Protea Atlas Project and Southern African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP), species population monitoring such as the Custodians of Rare and Endangered Wildflowers (CREW) project, and site-based rapid assessment and monitoring such as MyBirdPatch and BioBlitz. Countries in southern Africa are on a sharp continuum of research capacity, funding, political engagement and own datasets. Yet there is the capacity for adaptive management systems based in significant part on civil society volunteerism. Crucially, these must be underpinned by statistically sound, simple, repeatable scientific protocols, which are still rare in Africa.

Time is short to build the tools we need to ‘“scan the horizon” for trends in biodiversity. We have most of the right ingredients, but need a bit of investment to combine them in the right way. South Africa is in a good position with excellent biodiversity databases, some large-scale, long-term, or both. Civil society biodiversity projects are highly cost-effective ways of tracking biodiversity in space and time. South Africa’s projects track changes in groups like plants, birds and coral reefs, and make use of the skills and enthusiasm of volunteers in detecting changes and trends. Volunteerism is well-developed in South Africa, and we estimate that for every rand (or dollar) of public money invested in projects, volunteers themselves invest a further twenty. The participation of these “citizen scientists” in biodiversity work is a huge national asset. It helps build public awareness and passion for biodiversity, and recognition of how our policies and practices strengthen or under...

Climate change directly affects every major human development issue – energy, food, health, transport, housing, disaster management, poverty and sustainable development, to list a few. Our global response to the climate change challenge will have environmental, economic, social and political repercussions for decades, even centuries to come. In the last five years, the science of climate change and its potential impacts has deepened to the point where we now know more than enough to support a portfolio of actions by governments, communities and organizations. The need for precautionary action is clear, but it is critical to improve the knowledge base on which policymaking depends – especially in Africa and other regions where this knowledge base is desperately inadequate, fragmented, or inaccessible. Ecosystems and species underpin the well-being and productivity of human societies. Healthy ecosystems can help human society adapt to the adverse effects of climate change. Many specie...