foods
Article
The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Its Implications for the Global
Food Supply Chains
Sandeep Jagtap 1, * , Hana Trollman 2 , Frank Trollman 3 , Guillermo Garcia-Garcia 4 , Carlos Parra-López 4 ,
Linh Duong 5 , Wayne Martindale 6 , Paulo E. S. Munekata 7 , Jose M. Lorenzo 7,8 , Ammar Hdaifeh 9 ,
Abdo Hassoun 10,11 , Konstantinos Salonitis 1 and Mohamed Afy-Shararah 1
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Citation: Jagtap, S.; Trollman, H.;
Trollman, F.; Garcia-Garcia, G.;
Parra-López, C.; Duong, L.;
Martindale, W.; Munekata, P.E.S.;
Lorenzo, J.M.; Hdaifeh, A.; et al. The
Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Its
Implications for the Global Food
Supply Chains. Foods 2022, 11, 2098.
https://doi.org/10.3390/
foods11142098
Academic Editors: Juan
Manuel Ramon Jeronimo and
Raquel Flórez López
Received: 13 May 2022
Accepted: 8 July 2022
Published: 14 July 2022
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Copyright: © 2022 by the authors.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
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9
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*
Sustainable Manufacturing Systems Centre, School of Aerospace, Transport & Manufacturing,
Cranfield University, Cranfield MK43 0AL, UK; k.salonitis@cranfield.ac.uk (K.S.);
m.a.shararah@cranfield.ac.uk (M.A.-S.)
Department of Work, Employment, Management and Organisations, School of Business,
The University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK; ht203@leicester.ac.uk
Glenfield Hospital, University Hospitals of Leicester, NHS Trust, Leicester LE3 9QP, UK; ftrollman@gmail.com
Department of Agrifood System Economics, Centre ‘Camino de Purchil’, Institute of Agricultural and
Fisheries Research and Training (IFAPA), 18080 Granada, Spain;
guillermo.garcia@juntadeandalucia.es (G.G.-G.); carlos.parra@juntadeandalucia.es (C.P.-L.)
Faculty of Business and Law, The University of the West of England, Bristol BS16 1QY, UK;
linh.duong@uwe.ac.uk
National Centre for Food Manufacturing, University of Lincoln, Holbeach PE12 7PT, UK;
wmartindale@lincoln.ac.uk
Centro Tecnológico de la Carne de Galicia, Rúa Galicia n 4, Parque Tecnológico de Galicia,
San Cibrao das Viñas, 32900 Ourense, Spain; paulosichetti@ceteca.net (P.E.S.M.);
jmlorenzo@ceteca.net (J.M.L.)
Area de Tecnoloxía dos Alimentos, Facultade de Ciencias, Universidade de Vigo, 32004 Ourense, Spain
Agri-Food Sustainability Assessment, University de Lorraine, 54600 Nancy, France; a.hdaifeh@saf-ir.com
Sustainable AgriFoodTech Innovation & Research (SAFIR), 62000 Arras, France; a.hassoun@saf-ir.com
Syrian Academic Expertise (SAE), Gaziantep 27200, Turkey
Correspondence: s.z.jagtap@cranfield.ac.uk
Abstract: Food is one of the most traded goods, and the conflict in Ukraine, one of the European
breadbaskets, has triggered a significant additional disruption in the global food supply chains after
the COVID-19 impact. The disruption to food output, supply chains, availability, and affordability
could have a long-standing impact. As a result, the availability and supply of a wide range of food raw
materials and finished food products are under threat, and global markets have seen recent increases
in food prices. Furthermore, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has adversely affected food supply chains,
with significant effects on production, sourcing, manufacturing, processing, logistics, and significant
shifts in demand between nations reliant on imports from Ukraine. This paper aims to analyze
the impacts of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the effectiveness and responsiveness of
the global food supply chains. A PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and
Meta-Analyses) approach, including grey literature, was deployed to investigate six key areas of the
food supply chains that would be impacted most due to the ongoing war. Findings include solutions
and strategies to mitigate supply chain impacts such as alternative food raw materials, suppliers and
supply chain partners supported by technological innovations to ensure food safety and quality in
warlike situations.
Keywords: conflict; consumer; food processing; food production; food logistics; food quality; food
storage; food supply chain; Russia; Ukraine; war
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
4.0/).
1. Introduction
The current Russian invasion of Ukraine that began on 24 February 2022 has led to
the loss of lives, property, assets and infrastructure in Ukraine, resulting in a humanitarian
Foods 2022, 11, 2098. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11142098
https://www.mdpi.com/journal/foods
Foods 2022, 11, 2098
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disaster. It is rapidly becoming the most severe refugee crisis in Europe since World War
2 [1]. It has disrupted agriculture (both countries are globally important producers of
agricultural commodities), and this has impacted the food supply chain, particularly those
nations dependent on sunflower oil, maize, and wheat. The current sanctions and banning
of trading of Russian and Belarussian (an ally of Russia) agricultural goods via the USA,
European Union and allies of it has created a shortfall on various food commodities such
as wheat and cooking oil [2]. Increases in food and fuel prices have also occurred, Russia is
a primary supplier of gas to Europe, and the combined impact of conflict and sanctions has
seen 3–4-fold increases in energy prices [3]. The most exposed are countries that heavily
depend on agricultural exports from Ukraine and Russia for their food and feed industries,
as well as those that are dependent on nitrogenous fertilizers from Russia and Belarus for
agricultural production [4].
Previous food supply chain shocks and price increases are well characterized and
include droughts, floods and conflict in 2007 and 2008 across several nations resulting in the
banning of food export and subsequent increase in fuel prices and rapid two-fold increases
in food prices [5]. COVID-19 onset in 2020 added to the economic and agricultural supply
chain shocks [6]. The Russia-Ukraine war is compounding these issues and endangering
food security worldwide by the acute increases in food prices for the most vulnerable
globally. It is impacting political stability worldwide, such as ousting of Pakistan’s Prime
Minister Imran Khan, unrest in Peru and Sri Lanka all have the implication of increased
high food and fuel prices being drivers of unrest. It has led to a flashpoint in France,
Germany, Italy and Spain, where resulting energy allowances, decreases in prices, and
taxes amount to fiscal intervention by governments to address increasing energy prices [7].
Consequently, the scale and potential scope of impacts are without recent precedent, and a
research gap exists in that a comprehensive investigation of the effects of such disruption
needs to be strengthened in the current literature.
In this context, this paper addresses the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on all
the actors of the food supply chain and will discuss solutions and strategies to counter
these impacts. The hypothesis underlying this research is that there will be significant
impacts on the effectiveness and responsiveness of global food supply chains as a result of
the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The related research question is as follows. What
strategies or solutions may be implemented to mitigate the impacts of the conflict between
Russia and Ukraine on global food supply chains?
2. Methodology
Large-scale review syntheses, especially those concerning timely and evolving topics,
have grey literature as an important source of information [8]. A grey literature search plan
should outline the resources, search terms, websites, and limits to be used [9]. Elements to
be reported according to a PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and
Meta-Analyses) include a description of all information sources in the search, the name
of the person conducting the search, the date the search was performed, and a full search
strategy of at least one database including all search terms and combinations [10].
The impact categories that are the focus of this research were initially identified
with expert consultation using a qualitative two-round e-Delphi method [11,12] with
13 participants. The first round was used to identify potential impacts of the RussiaUkraine conflict on food supply chains based on the hypothesis that significant impacts
on the effectiveness and responsiveness of global food supply chains are the result of the
conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The second round asked participants to rank the
impacts identified in the first round. The top six impacts defined the impact areas followed
up in the review synthesis.
A grey literature search plan was developed incorporating three different searching
strategies: (1) customized Google search, (2) targeted websites, and (3) news reports. The
grey literature search was supplemented with relevant peer-reviewed articles from the
SCOPUS and Google Scholar databases using the same search terms: “Ukrain*”, “Russi*”,
Foods 2022, 11, 2098
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“war”, and the keywords of each of the identified impact areas. Each impact area was
searched in this way by one of the co-authors based on their area of expertise, supported
and corroborated by the other co-authors. Searches were performed from 13 March 2022 to
14 May 2022.
This research employed a PRISMA approach with the eligibility criteria shown in
Table 1.
Table 1. Inclusion and exclusions criteria for the literature review.
Inclusion Criteria
Exclusion Criteria
Available in English
Unavailable in English
Published by a government, NGO, or broadsheet
Published by a tabloid
Published by an expert in the field
Published as a generic blog
Related to identified impact categories
Unrelated to identified impact categories
3. Results
3.1. Results of the e-Delphi
The participants in the e-Delphi identified the top six supply chain impacts of the
Russian invasion of Ukraine, as shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Impacts of Russia-Ukraine conflict on the food supply chain.
Additional impacts that were not part of the top six impacts included impacts
on sustainability.
3.2. Results of the Review Synthesis
The following sections present the results of the review synthesis (literature review)
for each of the six impacts shown in Figure 1.
3.2.1. Impact on Food Production, Processing, and Storage
Ukraine has a major role in Europe and beyond in terms of agriculture and food
production. The national capability to cultivate soils, sow, and harvest crops has been
reduced since the start of the war [13]. Major food security concerns are the disruption
to winter harvesting and spring planting, availability of agricultural labor, availability of
agricultural inputs, damage to crops due to military activity, and destruction of food system
Foods 2022, 11, 2098
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assets and infrastructure [13]. A consequence of these outcomes is food shortages for the
local population and export economy, both in the short and medium-term.
Around 70% of Ukraine’s land is agricultural, which is similar to other European nations such as the UK, this includes cultivated land (grains, technical crops, forages, potatoes
and vegetables, and fallow), gardens, orchards, vineyards, meadows, and pastures [14]. The
agricultural and food sector plays a very important role in Ukraine’s economy. Agriculture,
forestry, and fishing was Ukraine’s third-largest sector by gross value added in 2020, which
differentiates it from nations such as the UK where direct agriculture represents less than
5% of the GDP [15]. In Ukraine, agriculture contributed to the gross domestic product with
around 9.3% and employed nearly 17% of the working population [16]. Ukraine exported
more than $9.4bn worth of cereals in 2020, around one-fifth of its total exports, and it is
ranked second global cereal exporter, whereas the US is first ranked [15]. The impacts of
the war in Ukraine’s agricultural and food sectors are also expected to affect the economy
of the country significantly.
In the short term, the main food-security concern in Ukraine is food access, not food
availability, since available stocks in Ukraine were approximately 1.14-fold greater than the
estimated annual demand [13]. Restriction of labor and reduced availability of workers,
due to population fighting in the war and concerns over the safety of the workers that
stayed on farms, is a critical reason why crops are not harvested. To partially alleviate this
problem, the Ukrainian government gave an exemption to farmers, so they do not have to
join the armed forces [17]
The main small-grain crops planted in Ukraine are winter wheat, spring barley, and
maize [14]. Although wheat is grown throughout the country, production in central and
south-central areas of the country dominates. There are currently six million hectares of
wheat planted in Ukraine [18]. Barley has been the most consumed feed grain in Ukraine
for most of the past ten years [14]. Spring barley is planted mostly in eastern Ukraine, in
some of the most-affected war areas.
FAO [4] estimates that 20–30% of the areas allocated to winter cereal, maize, and
sunflower seed production will not be harvested or planted this spring. Furthermore, a
lack of fertilizers and pesticides will affect the crops’ yield. The availability of seeds for
planting in 2022 is relatively high, particularly for vegetable crops, due to available stocks
and insignificant import requirements. The main constraint in this aspect is logistics and a
shortage of maize and sunflower seeds is expected [13].
The major concerns and impacts caused by the war for the most critical food sectors in
Ukraine are shown in Table 2. It demonstrates the impacts have already been felt in most
food sectors, and they will continue affecting food production in Ukraine even if the war
were to stop.
Table 2. Major agricultural products in Ukraine affected by the war. Based on data from [13].
Agricultural Product
Seasonality
Major Concerns and Impacts
Grains
Winter grain: planting from September to October,
harvesting from July to August
Half of the winter wheat and 38% of rye to be harvested
in summer 2022 are in occupied or war-affected areas
Oilseeds
Sunflowers: planting in April, harvesting from
mid-September to mid-October
Sunflowers planting will be seriously affected in at least
nine Oblasts (regions). Sown under sunflowers in 2022
may be 35% lower compared to 2021
Vegetables
Land preparation for vegetables from late February to
March, sowing from mid-March to mid-May,
harvesting from July to mid-September
Disruptions due to lack of inputs, lack of access to land
and concerns over safety for workers will affect
summer harvest
Livestock
Seasonal with respect to availability of feeds and
forage, and breeding cycles with respect to eggs, dairy,
and meat
Disruptions due to lack of feed, feed additives, veterinary
medicine, and breeding stock; insecurity of livestock
transportation; as well as damage to infrastructure; will
affect the livestock sector for as long as the war continues
In addition to agrifood-security concerns in Ukrainian and Russian agrifood sectors,
the war has already affected global food supply chains. The major role that Ukraine and
Foods 2022, 11, 2098
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Russia play in global food supply chains can be understood using reported production
and domestic supply statistics [15,18–20]. Ukraine’s wheat production is 3.2% of global
production and exports are 9.1% of the global wheat exports [21]. Russia is the first ranked
global exporter of wheat, and Ukraine is the fifth ranked exporter and most critically a
key supplier of wheat to the World Food Programme. This will intensify global food
security pressure and there are currently concerns being aired from the UN with respect to
wheat supplies to Syria, which is not alone as the following demonstrates Ukraine’s key
position globally.
•
•
•
Ukraine maize production is 2.6% of global production exporting Ukraine exports
around 15% of the global maize and is 5th ranked behind USA, Argentina, and Brazil;
Ukraine barley production is 4.9% of global production and it is the 2nd ranked global
exporter behind France with 13.2% of the total world exports;
Ukraine produces 29.1% of the global sunflower oil, and exports 44% of the global
supply of sunflower oil. Ukraine is the largest exporter of sunflower seeds globally.
Supply is specific and nations directly dependent on these agrifood supplies, including
some of the most vulnerable food security countries. For instance, India, China, and some
Middle East countries rely on imports of sunflower oil from Russia and Ukraine, while
Egypt and Libya obtain two-thirds of their wheat supply from these countries [19]. Lebanon
is supplied with 80% of its wheat from Ukraine [18]. Ethiopia and Yemen are vulnerable
countries that heavily rely on wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia [22]. Lithuania,
China, and India obtain more than 80% of their maize imports from Ukraine. Interestingly,
Russia obtains 73% of its barley imports from Ukraine [19].
An increased production in other countries could compensate for this reduction in
the availability of foods produced in Ukraine and Russia. The EU has allowed planting
and harvesting in fallow land where there was a requirement to leave 5% of the land in an
enterprise uncultivated for crops to reduce these current pressures [23,24].
3.2.2. Impact on Food Transport Logistics
The war in Ukraine has created an enormous food security challenge in the country, with important consequences for global food supply chains. The food market has
been disrupted by restrictions in export licensing and port closures [13]. Major food security concerns due to the war include disruption of logistics and food supply chains,
access to agricultural inputs, abandonment of and reduced access to agricultural land, and
destruction of food system assets and infrastructure [13].
The resilience of the Ukrainian domestic food supply can be forecasted because of
existing statistical reporting systems associated with a well-developed agri-production
industry and its established dependencies across the global food system. There is currently
uncertainty regarding the continued scaling up of conflict and its duration but what
is known is the Ukrainian agri-production industry depends heavily on fuel imports,
with about 70% of imports of petrol and diesel coming from the Russian Federation and
Belarus [25]. Fuel supply is critical to any possible spring planting in 2022 and future
harvesting in August 2022. This is critical to the Ukrainian Government, which has reduced
excise duty and taxes on fuel. FAO reports that only 20% of 1300 large agri-businesses
surveyed by the Ukrainian Government have enough fuel for planting this spring [26]. The
supply of equipment, seed, plant nutrients, and crop protection supplies are expected to
be at least half of that required for full typical planting operations. Whereas smallholder
sectors such as potatoes and vegetables will be self-sufficient for seed the internal issue
of logistics, being able to transport seed stocks to where they are required will stifle the
potential to reach the planting operations. The logistical dependency on fuel will limit
the whole agri-food industry and reduced gas supplies will compound this situation by
limiting the production of ammonia and urea for nitrogenous fertilizer. This is not just a
production issue; it is one of being able to transport commodities and goods to where they
need to be used. The war has not only limited the supply of fuel and gas but also destroyed
efficient transport infrastructure to farms and factories.
Foods 2022, 11, 2098
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An important current indicator of current production stress is the monthly summary
of the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) at 1 km2 resolution [27]. FAO has developed a
Country-level Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS) [28] using satellite data to detect
cropped land that could be affected by drought and used to support the Global Information
and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS). The VCI evaluates the
current vegetation health compared to the historical trends using the current dekadal
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to its long-term minimum and maximum,
so that the data is normalized by the historical range of NDVI values for the same time
period. The VCI was designed to separate the weather-related component of the NDVI
from the seasonal variation in vegetation cover. The Web Map Service (WMS) was used in
this study and analyzed using MapInfo 10.0 [29].
Crop production data were obtained from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service [30]
which reports the 5-year average (2016–2020) proportion of specific crops produced across
the Ukrainian Oblasts (regions) using the State Statistic Service for Ukraine and Rosstat
for Crimea Oblast. Figure 2 shows the VCI data for March 2021 (Figure 2a) and March
2022 (Figure 2b). The central Oblasts are where Ukraine’s major agricultural crops are
produced and it can be seen that these central regions have a 20–25% reduction in VCI
currently suggesting growth and planting is significantly reduced. Figure 3 shows the
relative proportions for production of Ukraine’s major crops as presented by the USDA
FAS, these include maize, wheat, and sunflowers (Figure 3a) and barley, rapeseed, soybean,
and millet (Figure 3b). The VCI grid is shown, demonstrating the Oblasts with the greatest
production are regions where there is a reduction in planting and VCI. The key crops
impacted provide specific issues that must be resolved but the universal issue is a lack
of fuel and ability to transport goods from where they are produced to where they are
required [31].
Figure 2. The VCI for March 2021 (a) and March 2022 (b). The scale for the VCI is shown to
demonstrate differences between VCI for each planting season in the Ukrainian Oblasts (regions).
Data from UNFAO, analysis developed using MapInfo 10.0.
Wheat is typically highlighted by current commenters. Ukraine’s wheat production is
3.3% of the total global wheat production (24.9 × 106 tonnes of global 760,926 × 106 tonnes
global crop as reported by FAOStat in 2020, and as the final breaking of wheat embargoes
between the USSR and USA in the late 1980s demonstrated. Ukraine is ranked 8th in
global wheat production with some 5.5-fold less production than China which produces
the greatest amount (134 × 106 tonnes). Logistics and location stifle supply with the UN
FAO estimating that 49 percent of winter wheat and 38 percent of rye to be harvested
in July–August 2022 are in occupied or war-affected areas (Figure 3a). Most important
to the global food system is where this wheat and small grain production is exported,
Ukraine is the 5th ranked global exporter of wheat at 18.06 × 106 tonnes in 2020 which is
9% of global wheat exports (FAOStat). Importing nations have a high dependency on this
supply that will be limited by potential to harvest and transport. The small grains global
Foods 2022, 11, 2098
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market demonstrates how complex geopolitical controls of food and feed supply are with
significant volumes of maize from Ukraine to China, Western Europe, and Northern Africa.
Most notably the war will restrict shipping from the Black Sea ports. Figure 3a shows the
importance of sunflowers in the central and Eastern Oblasts destroyed by war. Sunflowers
are typically planted in April and harvested from mid-September to mid-October. This
means sunflower production will not be possible. Ukraine supplies 26% of global sunflower
seed, exporting seed for processing and oil to India, China, and Western Europe.
Figure 3. The March 2022 VCI and proportion of maize, sunflowers, and wheat produced in each
Oblast (region) (a) and March 2022 VCI and proportion of barley, rapeseed, soybean, and millet
produced in each Oblast (b). The maximum proportion of crop produced is 13% of the total and each
bar is relative to this 13% maximum. Data from UNFAO and USDA FAS, analysis developed using
MapInfo 10.0.
3.2.3. Impact on the Food Supply Markets
The countries involved in the Ukrainian crisis are important global producers of
agricultural products [32,33]. Ukraine is a major global producer of wheat, sunflower,
and maize that have been mainly transported by ship to ports located at Mariupol and
Berdyansk (Azov Sea) and Odessa (Black Sea) (Figure 4).
The European Union (EU) has important commercial relationships with Ukraine,
importing wheat, maize, sunflower seed, and oil as well as malt, rye, and sorghum [34,35].
The commercial relationships for the import of commodities between the EU and Ukraine
are delivered through duty-free quotas, which provide favorable import outcomes for
Ukraine and the EU. The EU has a dependency on commodities and raw materials in the
food processing sector [36]. The current uncertain situation about the progression of the
armed conflict poses a threat to disrupting agricultural supply chains between Ukraine
and European countries [37]. This threat has been gaining momentum since the Russian
annexation of the Crimea region in 2014 and which restricted port operations in Mariupol
and Berdyansk ports. Consequently, the exports were diverted to Odessa port. The Odessa
port has been the most relevant port for Ukrainian exports to Europe since the events in
Crimea in 2014 [38].
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Figure 4. Main regional production areas of wheat, maize, and sunflower, ports at Azov and
Black Seas, and maritime routes for Ukrainian agricultural production. Information adapted from
International Grains Council [1,2].
During the conflict in March 2022, the city and port of Odessa have currently suffered
less disruption than other cities in the west of Ukraine. The strategic importance of ports
(especially Odessa) would restrict the transport of wheat, cereals, and other commodities
trade [38,39]. Currently, the Ukrainian port operations are suspended, and efforts have
been made to improve the transport using railways, but the shipping by sea for Ukrainian
commodities is limited [33]. The main destinations of Ukrainian wheat, maize, sunflower
seeds, and oil in 2020 within the EU were Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Italy,
Lithuania, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain where Ukraine is also the primary ranked
nation for the source of these imported products (Table 3) [21]. Table 3 also demonstrates
where there are likely to be indirect pressures on commodity and food markets as the
relationships between the EU and Ukraine accommodate the pressure of conflict by sourcing
products from different exporting partners [21].
The international market demonstrates the importance of commodities exported from
Ukraine. With the reduced supply of these commodities and continuous demand for
them, buyers in European countries are looking for alternative suppliers. Important global
producers of these commodities are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, India,
Mexico, and the USA (Figure 5).
It is important to consider that European countries and the main global producers
of these commodities were not accommodating the absence of Ukrainian commodities
for trade offs to be in place and active [35]. Consequently, the market has reacted to the
potential reduced supply of Ukrainian commodities for the European countries rather than
developing new markets. Commercialization of wheat and maize are affected and general
increase in their prices has gained new higher trading levels in relation to values commercialized since the beginning of 2022 [40]. Although differences exist among wheat and
maize markets, the effect on prices is impactful Figure 6. As Ukraine’s wheat exportation
remain stagnated, the export from major global producers (Australia, India, and Canada)
have increased [37].
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Table 3. Importation of Ukrainian and European wheat, maize, sunflower seed and oil in 2020.
Country
Imported Wheat (tonnes)
Maize (tonnes)
Sunflower Seed (tonnes)
Sunflower Oil (tonnes)
Total
EU
Ukraine
Total
EU
Ukraine
Total
EU
Ukraine
Total
EU
Ukraine
Austria
1,151,669
1,151,302
(99.97%) 1
286 (0.02%) 1
967,258
887,402
(91.74%)
30
(0.003%)
156,041
150,733
(96.60%)
29
(0.02%)
76,115
59,975
(78.80%)
6579
(8.64%)
Belgium
-
-
-
1,922,955
1,502,583
(78.14%)
418,921
(21.79%)
119,686
112,493
(93.99%)
2536
(2.12%)
586,818
574,233
(97.86%)
10,738
(1.83%)
Bulgaria
-
-
-
27,844
20,454
(73.46%)
209
(0.75%)
1,020,755
457,030
(44.77%)
182,539
(17.88%)
41,875
12,635
(30.17%)
25,992
(62.07%)
Croatia
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
69,080
23,905
(34.60%)
104
(0.15%)
Cyprus
-
-
-
289,032
188,490
(65.21%)
29,570
(10.23%)
-
-
-
7234
4663
(64.46%)
2517
(34.79%)
Czech
-
-
-
-
-
-
210,192
198,102
(94.25%)
2789
(1.33%)
58,985
50,830
(86.17%)
6690
(11.34%)
Denmark
-
-
-
-
-
-
16,348
15,369
(94.01%)
211
(1.29%)
17,944
14,997
(83.58%)
104
(0.58%)
Estonia
-
-
-
25,984
23,985
(92.31%)
777
(2.99%)
6066
872
(14.38%)
4515
(74.43%)
7036
1378
(19.58%)
2355
(33.47%)
France
-
-
-
661,440
641,541
(96.99%)
6
(0.001%)
325,638
234,358
(71.97%)
501
(0.15%)
298,341
126,944
(42.55%)
154,758
(51.87%)
Germany
3,999,369
3,978,627
(99.48%)
5066
(0.13%)
3,802,900
3,378,093
(88.83%)
393,290
(10.34%)
389,117
363,570
(93.43%)
2478
(0.64%)
495,001
477,005
(96.36%)
14,854
(3.00%)
Greece
894,928
625,470
(69.89%)
86,892
(9.71%)
-
-
-
-
-
-
69,435
53,988
(77.75%)
14,388
(20.72%)
Hungary
-
-
-
168,688
110,533
(65.53%)
25,675
(15.22%)
131,494
108,742
(82.70%)
7 (0.01%)
46,795
14,170
(30.28%)
21,874
(46.745)
Ireland
-
-
-
1,313,414
118,007
(8.98%)
415,402
(31.63%)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Foods 2022, 11, 2098
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Table 3. Cont.
Country
Imported Wheat (tonnes)
Maize (tonnes)
Sunflower Seed (tonnes)
Sunflower Oil (tonnes)
Total
EU
Ukraine
Total
EU
Ukraine
Total
EU
Ukraine
Total
EU
Ukraine
Italy
7,994,393
4,894,209
(61.22%)
233,869
(2.93%)
5,994,600
4,586,124
(76.50%)
770,245
(12.85%)
159,738
139,130
(87.10%)
2667
(1.67%)
589,558
185,720
(31.50%)
346,749
(58.82%)
Latvia
-
-
-
93,839
17,912
(19.09%)
5462
(5.82%)
5988
1822
(30.43%)
208
(3.47%)
14,014
7649
(54.58%)
3194
(22.79%)
Lithuania
-
-
-
321,350
10,321
(3.21%)
217,387
(67.65%)
7626
3989
(52.31%)
728
(9.55%)
36,950
4185
(11.33%)
17,155
(46.43%)
Malta
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2573
1063
(41.31%)
1408
(54.72%)
Netherlands
4,296,917
4,189,485
(97.50%)
30,920
(0.72%)
5,945,756
2,748,433
(46.23%)
3,027,455
(50.92%)
768,103
738,468
(96.14%)
1421
(0.19%)
885,606
202,459
(22.86%)
679,591
(76.74%)
Poland
869,332
860,548
(98.99%)
3946 (0.45%)
421,653
379,173
(89.93%)
1500
(0.36%)
65,622
49,675
(75.70%)
5555
(8.47%)
219,866
77,360
(35.19%)
140,210
(63.77%)
Portugal
-
-
-
1,899,504
370,484
(19.50%)
732,523
(38.56%)
-
-
-
67,220
39,710
(59.07%)
14,929
(22.21%)
Romania
-
-
-
1,348,879
1,238,860
(91.86%)
689
(0.05%)
242,832
59,545
(24.52%)
1877
(0.77%)
54,517
27,425
(50.31%)
12,645
(23.19%)
Slovakia
-
-
-
88,878
85,213
(95.88%)
3549
(3.99%)
-
-
-
43,068
38,045
(88.34%)
3929
(9.12%)
Slovenia
-
-
-
776,976
191,535
(24.65%)
1598
(0.21%)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Spain
4,151,812
3,436,105
(82.76%)
373,294
(8.99%)
8,067,136
2,512,059
(31.14%)
2,719,175
(33.71%)
402,353
331,560
(82.41%)
983
(0.24%)
604,241
125,497
(20.77%)
430,633
(71.27%)
Sweden
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
38,728
33,502
(86.51%)
1795
(4.63%)
1
% of total imported. Data adapted from FAOSTAT [21].
Foods 2022, 11, 2098
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Figure 5. Global producers of wheat (a), maize (b), sunflower seed (c) in 2020, and sunflower oil
(d) in 2019. Data adapted from FAOSTAT [21].
Within the EU, the supply chains that are partly controlled and determined by
Ukrainian agricultural imports include the secondary food processing sector (especially
baking, brewing, and vegetable oil industries) which have direct impacts on retail and
food service sectors [36]. As the Ukrainian crisis continues, the risk of retail disruption in
these food chains increases and leads to a potential downstream shortage of products for
industries, grocery and retail stores, and the food service sector.
The threat of supply chain disruption, and the resilience of the European supply
chains of wheat, maize and sunflower seed and oil must be considered. Differences in their
imports from Ukraine and other European countries (Table 3), most countries in Europe
are expected to face future challenges. The lack of supplier diversity is not favorable for the
resilience of wheat, maize, and sunflower seed and oil. As sanctions against Russian fuels
(coal, oil, and gas) continue, the costs associated with road freight will play an important
role in the price of wheat, maize, and sunflower seed and oil to consumers as well as
products and food services related to these commodities [41]. Moreover, the processing
sector may be affected by strikes of carrier companies (e.g., [42]), which may affect the
capacity of food supply chains to thrive in this scenario.
3.2.4. Impact on Consumer
Famine and pestilence have at times been reported as companions to war and death,
so it is perhaps unsurprising that the invasion of Ukraine was accompanied by turmoil in
markets for food and medicine. Since the war began, wheat prices have risen over forty
percent, to prices not seen since the 2007–2008 World Food Price Crisis [43]. Other recent
wars such as the Tigray War in Ethiopia or the Nagorno-Karabakh War in Azerbaijan have
not been anticipated by market actors to be as disruptive to food and medical supply chains
and have been functionally invisible when looking at global markets. However, the Russian
invasion of Ukraine is widely predicted to have substantial impacts on global health and
food security, and indeed already has.
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Figure 6. Average global (a) and European (b) prices for commercialization of wheat and maize
during January-March 2022. Data adapted from the Cereal statistic webpage of the European
Commission [40].
Before the invasion, Ukraine was the fourth largest exporter of cereals in the world and
one of the world’s largest producers, harvesting over 3.7% of the world’s total cereals [44].
The share of the market’s cereal exports is even larger, with 6% of global market food
calories coming from Ukraine [45]. Recent events shed light on what massive devastation
by the Russian military could mean for Ukraine and the world, including the Syrian
Civil War and the 2007–2008 World Food Price Crisis. Syria’s gross exports amounted to
$11.9 billion the year before the war, and most recently were measured at $0.6 billion [46]:
a real and sustained reduction of over 90% of the country’s exports in the wake of the
Russian bombing, which is a plausible outcome for Ukraine as well. Ukraine increased
tariffs in 2007 in order to reduce the amount of food exported, and the amount of Ukrainian
wheat on international markets was reduced by over $300 million that year as a result. The
removal of Ukrainian wheat from export markets was a minor exacerbating factor in the
food price crisis, but in the years since the world has become more dependent on Ukrainian
cereals. Ukraine exported $761 million worth of wheat in 2006; by 2019 this had grown
to $3.1 billion. Further, maize production for export has grown even faster in terms of
tonnage and economic value and as of 2019 maize was Ukraine’s largest cereal export at
$4.77 billion [47].
While cereal prices have already reacted to the war in Ukraine, these price hikes
are to be understood as anticipatory. Ukraine’s largest crop in tonnage and dollar value
Foods 2022, 11, 2098
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is maize, which was mostly intended for export and mostly intended as animal feed.
Year 2021 already saw maize harvested at some 40 million metric tonnes (MMT), and
the next harvest was intended to be in the autumn of 2022. This maize would have been
destined to feed animals over the winter, primarily in China (8.4 MMT), Holland (2.3 MMT),
Egypt (2.2 MMT), Spain (1.9 MMT), and Iran (1.2 MMT). The shortfall in maize production
will thus have direct effects on consumers in meat availability starting in 2023. There is
substantial time for would-be importers to arrange alternative sources via global markets,
and they will probably do so. For example, three separate American states (Iowa, Illinois,
and Nebraska) individually produce more than 40 MMT of maize per year, and the global
impact will primarily be financial [48].
The role of Eastern Europe and Central Asia as a potential new “breadbasket” for
the world has been called into question due to previous export restrictions affecting the
reliability of Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine (RUK) as exporters [49]. Ukrainian wheat
would be harvested primarily in July and August, and last year the 16 MMT of exports were
relied upon heavily by lower-income countries, with Morocco, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Egypt,
and Indonesia each importing over a million tonnes of Ukrainian wheat from the 2021
harvest [50]. Over 95% of Ukrainian wheat exports were to be sent to countries in Africa or
Asia. This wheat was to be primarily used in direct consumption and was expected to be
a significant source of calories during the summer of 2022 in Northern Africa and South
Asia [51] as shown in Figure 7. Countries such as Egypt have already intervened in the
market, but absolute shortages remain a possibility [52].
Figure 7. Ukrainian wheat exports by destination in 2021 [52].
Ukraine was the world’s largest exporter of sunflower oil in 2021. This value is
significant, having grown to over $6 billion in 2021. Despite the fact that the war threatens
to remove billions of dollars and trillions of calories from the global marketplace through
the disruption of Ukrainian seed oil shipments, the impact on the consumer is likely to
be attenuated. Edible fats remain extremely fungible, with other oils substituting for a
sunflower oil well. Oils can also be stored for long periods of time, and major blocs such as
the EU and the United States maintain significant reserves.
Pharmaceutical production in Ukraine had enjoyed double-digit growth for years prior
to the war, but Ukraine remained heavily dependent on foreign sources for needed medications [53]. As of 2019, packaged medications accounted for $1.8 billion in imports, exceeding
exports by more than ten to one and comprising a super majority of medications consumed
Foods 2022, 11, 2098
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in the country. Between Ukrainian refugees and internally displaced Ukrainians, there
are already over ten million Ukrainians who will not be able to get medications through
their previously normal channels, and that number is liable to increase. Pharmaceuticals
are significantly less fungible than food or other commodities as regulatory environments
differ spectacularly across national borders. The State Service of Ukraine on Medicines and
Drug Control is not part of the European Medicines Agency, and differences exist in the
required labeling, dosage, and formulary of medication for distribution in Ukraine versus
neighboring countries in the EU. At least $2 billion worth of pharmaceuticals will probably
need to find new supply chains in 2022 because of the conflict.
Temporary shortages of specific medicines are likely but almost certain to be minor in
the face of a $1.2 trillion global pharmaceuticals market. Of greater concern are the tens
of millions of people within Ukraine who will have uncertain access to supply chains for
needed medicines for the duration of the war. This will lead to considerable excess death
as much of the Ukrainian population is over forty years old.
Nowhere is the disconnect between the importance of a supply chain and its financial
cost more dramatic than it is with potable water. Pipelines carrying potable water for
millions of Ukrainians had already been threatened and disrupted by Russian military and
paramilitary actions for years before the 2022 invasion [54], but in March 2022 the United
Nations noted that wartime activities had left at least 5% of the people of the Donetska
Oblast without access to water [55]. Further, the water resources of neighboring Poland
were already under moderate stress [56]. While water is not financially expensive, local
sources sufficient to replace the water sources for tens of millions of Ukrainians simply do
not exist. Deaths related to compromised water supplies could easily reach hundreds of
thousands, despite the low cost of restoring stable water access once eventually achieved.
Ukraine produced meat primarily for internal consumption, predominantly poultry
and pork. While Ukraine was a net exporter of meat, roughly 2.2 MMT of meat was
produced for consumption within Ukraine on a yearly basis. The disruption of Ukrainian
animal agriculture represents a substantial impact on food security for the Ukrainian people,
although its impact on world poultry prices will be minimal. The impact of the direct loss
of Ukrainian meat imports will be minor compared to the indirect effects of the global
rising cost of animal feed due to the disruption in Ukrainian maize [57].
All in all, the Ukrainian people should consume over 80 billion calories every day to
maintain the health of the people. Trollman et al. [58] confirmed that food insecurity during
the COVID-19 pandemic had minimal effect on consumer food preferences or willingness
to seek nutritionally adequate substitutes or alternative foods. Similarly, price volatility of
food coupled with decreasing purchasing power is likely to make balanced nutrition and
healthy diets a problem in Ukraine [59], especially when combined with known tendencies
of non-rational Ukrainian consumer behavior [60]. Psychological distress has been found
to be associated with less frequent consumption of meat, fish, vegetables, fruit, and animal
fat in post-Soviet republics [61]. For each person killed directly in the war, nine may be
killed indirectly; with child and birth-related mortality significantly affected and infectious
diseases at risk of re-emerging [62].
As Ukraine has historically been a net food exporting country, almost none of the supply chain infrastructure to provide that from external sources exists. The loss of Ukrainian
contributions to the global food marketplace is felt the world over, but the looming food
insecurity of the Ukrainian people is an often-overlooked problem. The displaced people
of Ukraine number more than the entire populations of neighboring Belarus, Slovakia,
Hungary, or Moldova, and there are no established means for them to acquire needed food,
water, or medications. Such supply chains will need to be built from scratch in the face of
an ongoing Russian invasion.
3.2.5. Impact on Food Dependent Services
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been associated with the fastest displacement of
people since the Second World War, with over ten million people internally displaced or
Foods 2022, 11, 2098
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international refugees in just one month of conflict [63]. Displaced people have historically
had lower labor productivity and higher rates of informal employment than non-displaced
people or voluntary migrants [64]. These disadvantages are generally reduced over time,
but there is reason to expect a forced migration of this speed and magnitude will present a
more difficult problem of assimilation at destination than a smaller or slower displacement
of people.
Historical examples are uncommon, but there are precedents set by the 1971 Bangladesh
Genocide [65] and the Korean War of 1950 [66]. The per capita GDP of Bangladesh caught
up to and exceeded that of Pakistan in 2016, some forty-five years after the displacement
of over thirty million people during the conflict [67]. The Korean War improved on that
performance, although even then the displacement of people on the Korean peninsula
began in 1950 and the Republic of Korea’s legendary economic performance began after
democratization in 1987. Notably, North Korea was never democratized and remains economically impoverished 72 years later. Examples of comparable mass forced displacement
with economic recovery taking substantially less than two generations are available from
World War II, but all of those examples involve very large investments from the United
States or the Soviet Union. Without strong external intervention to rebuild, Ukraine will
likely remain impoverished by this conflict for generations to come.
A plausible scenario is one where some portion of Ukraine remains under Russian
occupation for a protracted period of time. The economic prospects of those occupied
regions are fairly bleak. The Russian Federation is already maintaining multiple occupied
frozen conflict zones, creating obvious comparison points. Both the Transnistria region in
Moldova [68] and the South Ossetia region in Georgia [69] boast a per capita GDP that is
less than half that of the unoccupied portions of their respective countries.
Labor productivity is hampered in multiple ways. Forced migration removes workers
from employment appropriate to their skills, and it is often difficult for them to find
equivalent employment at their destination. Employment vacancies that do exist become
more difficult to fill when potentially qualified candidates are evacuating. The war is also
destroying infrastructure at a tremendous rate, with estimates ranging from $63 billion [70]
to nearly ten times that [71]. Far beyond the direct financial losses, the destruction of
physical and human capital will severely impact labor productivity immediately and
hobble growth for the foreseeable future.
Not only humans, but also livestock face mass displacement in times of war. The
Ukrainian agricultural sector primarily produces meat for internal consumption, and the
Ukrainian people consumed poultry, pork, and beef for 99% of their meat consumption
(Figure 8). Almost all of the chicken, pigs, and cattle of Ukraine are likely to be slaughtered
within the next two years. Some of this meat will reach consumers and some will go
to waste. The substantial majority of these animals are industrial breeds functionally
indistinguishable from those in use in Poland or Hungary, meaning that farms and herds
will be quickly repopulated as soon as the country is again able to consistently supply
animal feed. However, there are Ukrainian legacy breeds such as the Ukrainian Grey Cattle
that are already endangered with few examples outside of Ukraine [72]. These breeds may
go extinct entirely, and future generations would see them only in historical texts.
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Figure 8. Meat consumption in Ukraine in 2020. The per capita figures are 26 kg for poultry, 19 kg for
pork, 8 kg for beef and veal, and 1 kg for other meats [73].
Almost 90% of Ukraine’s poultry are industrial broilers. Worldwide there are over
23 billion such birds, and a typical bird spends 21 days as an egg and just 42 days out of
the egg before slaughter [74]. The cycle can easily be discontinued in the face of a projected
lack of feed, and additional eggs can be incubated when feed is available. The poultry
industry is very agile and can adapt to changes in feed maize supply much more quickly
than the maize farmers can. Poultry production can be up to normal levels within months
of a successful maize harvest. Beef cattle grow much more slowly, with calves growing to
adulthood over months and years [75]. The expected 2022 mass slaughter of beef cattle will
impact Ukrainian cattle farming for years. Cattle farming would likely not recover until
three or four years after access to consistent animal feed was reestablished.
In the intervening years between the eventual return of peace and stability to Ukraine
and the reestablishment of a domestic beef industry, the capacity for feeding and caring for
full-grown and near full-grown cattle will exist in Ukraine. This capacity can be used for
finishing and fattening animals raised in other countries. An independent Ukraine may be
an attractive option for farmers in currency-limited and sanction-restricted countries, as
beef cattle finished on Ukrainian grain will be considered Ukrainian and become eligible
to be sold on to European consumers, regardless of the sanctions imposed on the country
cattle were calved in.
Indirect losses to productivity in other countries are also a certainty. Ukraine has
historically been one of the major sources of fertilizers in Europe, accounting for as much
as 25% of all fertilizers produced on the continent in 2010 [76]. While the last decade has
seen a significant reduction in Ukrainian fertilizer exports, Ukraine continued to export
hundreds of millions of dollars of fertilizers per year prior to the war. The loss of this
production threatens more than the financial value of the fertilizers, but potentially the
productivity of agriculture in other parts of the world [77].
Neighboring Belarus exports over $2 billion worth of potassium rich fertilizers every
year. While there is currently no reason to believe that Russian or Ukrainian troops will
destroy Belarusian potash production, there may be sanctions that hinder or delay the
export of fertilizers from Belarus. Most of the Belarusian fertilizer is intended to be exported
to Brazil, China, India, or Indonesia, and none of those countries are currently preventing
trade in goods from Belarus. However, the sanctions remain fluid, and Belarusian goods
may be partially or wholly blockaded by third countries whether the would-be recipient
countries are signatories to sanction regimens or not.
3.2.6. Impact on Food Quality
Countries worldwide are barely recovering from the disastrous economic consequences of the global COVID-19 pandemic, and the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine
could make this economic situation even worse, particularly in the global food supply
chain. These economic impacts on the food supply chain are predicted to have a substantial
influence on food safety and quality in various ways, including price increases of energy
Foods 2022, 11, 2098
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causing rising prices of food, feed, and fertilizers, and changes in seasonal worker availability, among others [78]. Although studies have focused on the effect of the invasion of
Ukraine by Russia on the food supply chain from an economic point of view [79], very little
academic research has been done on the impact of this crisis on food quality and safety.
Historically, wars and other major violence tended to have both direct ruinous impacts
on food security and indirect severe consequences on food quality and safety, with lasting
effects over time. For example, a recent study discussed the impact of the Syrian conflict on
crop production and food security in Syria, even more than ten years after the start of this
conflict [80]. Another study described the catastrophic consequences of the war in Yemen
on food security and nutrition status, after several years of conflict in this country [81]. The
Russian invasion of Ukraine is unlikely to be an exception.
As Ukraine has one of the biggest nuclear industries in the world [82], the question of
maintaining its nuclear facilities has become of urgent importance, only a few days after the
Russian invasion of this country. Especially the shelling of the Zaporizhzhia power station,
the largest in Europe, by Russian armed forces has triggered unprecedented global outrage,
as nuclear experts have warned that Ukrainian nuclear sites are at risk of a nuclear disaster
due to the release of some radioactive material [82,83]. Indeed, there has been a fear of a
similar catastrophe to the one that happened in 1986 at Chernobyl, the site of the world’s
worst nuclear disaster, with long-term devastating effects on living plants, animals, and the
environment. Recently, it has been shown that, even 35 years after the Chernobyl disaster,
contamination levels in many foods still exceed acceptable limits [84]. The Chernobyl
nuclear power plant has again become a widespread threat after Russian shelling at the
site, but a recent report from the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that the
radiation levels near the Chernobyl plant are within safe limits [85,86].
Another food safety-related issue that could be directed affected by wars is the spread
of diseases. FAO highlighted the significant risk of proliferation of animal diseases, such
as African swine fever (ASF) in Ukraine and neighboring countries [87]. The increasing
risk of ASF was explained by the negative impact of the conflict on the existing capacities
in the areas of surveillance, diagnostics, vaccination, inspection services, veterinary care
facilities, pig farm management, among others. In addition, the spread of ASF can be
enhanced by the massive movement of refugees and displaced people fleeing from the
conflict. Moreover, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is expected to put more pressure on
fertilizers’ availability and promote the use of alternatives such as animal manure. This
could lead to less crop yield and reduced quality due to less protection against fungal and
bacterial infections [87–89].
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and sanctions against Russia and Belarus will increase
the global demand for food and increase food prices, which may impact food quality
and safety. Price spikes caused by the reduction of food availability are projected to be
accompanied by impaired product quality due to a possible shift in consumption patterns
towards cheaper food products but often with lower quality. For example, the declines
in Russian exports will require food companies to omit or substitute certain ingredients
or change the manufacturing process or recipe and find alternatives in the short term,
which may lower the quality of the products, as these alternatives in some cases may not
meet desired product specifications (e.g., GMO-free) or EU legislations [89,90]. Besides, as
extreme events often spark waves of “panic buying” such as the one that emerged with the
outbreak of COVID-19 during the lockdown periods [91–93], similar shopping behavior
can be expected with conflicts and wars. Purchasing extra food and an increase in food
stocks at home (panic stockpiling) could lead to more food waste.
Food fraud and food adulteration issues have at times been reported in countries with
conflicts. The key characteristics of food fraud are non-compliance with food laws, and
misleading the consumer for financial gain. Food fraud can include a substitution of species,
adding or replacing food ingredients with undeclared substitutes, and discrepancies in food
production or farming method [94,95]. Occurrences of food fraud are likely to become more
prevalent during the COVID-19 pandemic [96]. Similarly, the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Foods 2022, 11, 2098
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could increase the opportunities for food fraud and may impact global food traceability
systems. Honey, sunflower oil, grains, and seafood are among the main foodstuffs produced
in Ukraine and that are most vulnerable to food fraud.
Ukraine is the largest producer of honey in Europe, with more than half of Ukrainian
honey being exported [97,98]. Honey is a product that is subjected to frequent adulteration
in several ways, such as mislabeling, falsely declaring the botanical or geographical origins,
direct or indirect addition of cheaper sweeteners or low-quality honey [99]. Due to adulterated imported honey that continues to flood the market, domestic honey producers find
difficulties in building a sustainable business model predicated on authentic honey [100].
Ukraine and Russia are leading exporters of sunflower oil. The invasion of Ukraine provides a unique opportunity for fraudsters to replace sunflower oil with refined rapeseed
oil, mineral oil, castor oil, cottonseed oil, among others [98,101]. The seafood supply chain
is particularly vulnerable to fraud, such as substituting expensive varieties of fish with
low-value species, mislabeling the geographical origin, labeling cheaply farmed fish as
more expensive wild-caught fish, or labeling traditionally farm-raised fish as more valuable
ecological or organic varieties [95,100]. As seafood (including whitefish, such as Atlantic
cod and haddock Seafood) is among Russia’s biggest agricultural exports, restrictions on
Russia’s exports of these products are likely to impact supply and increase fraud. Some
grains, especially wheat and maize, as well as pulses are also expected to be highly affected
by this conflict, as can be seen in Table 4.
Table 4. Impact and risk associated with certain food products that are particularly affected by the
Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Products
Global Export:
Combined
Russia/Ukraine
Short Term Impact
Long Term Impact
Risks
Reference
Wheat
30%
Reasonable supplies
Serious shortages
Adulteration with high protein
flour, allergens, lower quality
grains, and mycotoxins
[98]
Maize
20%
Shortages
Uncertain
Lower quality grains
and mycotoxins
[98]
Pulses
Among the top
5 producers
Reduced supplies
Shortages
Adulteration, allergens
[98]
Sunflower Oil
80%
Pressure on alternative
vegetable oil sources
Uncertain
Adulteration with other less
expensive oils such as palm oil,
mineral oil, and rapeseed oil
[98,101]
Adulteration with many
cheaper substances (such as
sugar syrups or other
alternatives) and health risks
due to contaminants
[98,99]
Honey
Number one
producer in Europe
Pressuring supply and
demand
Contamination from
conflict chemicals
(e.g., heavy
metals/biological
hazards)
Fish
40% whitefish (e.g.,
30% Atlantic cod and
25% haddock)
Price increases and
reduced supply
Impact on seafood
processing industries
Substitution of species,
incorrect origin,
etc. traceability)
[98,100]
Fertilizer
The largest exporter
of urea and potash
Price increases
Reduce crop yields
Fertilizer adulteration
[87,98]
4. Discussion
Food supply has too often been a politically driven resource restricted by conflict and
war. The quick solution to this crisis is to halt the war and allow agricultural production
to resume immediately and safely to avoid further potential impacts on food security in
Ukraine—and beyond—in the coming days, weeks, and months.
Food production, processing, and storage have been shown by this research to be most
under pressure from disruption to planting and harvesting which includes the availability
of agricultural labor and agricultural inputs. The identified solution given continued
conflict is to minimize disruption to global supply chains by finding alternative sources for
Foods 2022, 11, 2098
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the lost crops. This aligns with the suggestions of the FAO [13] for undertaking a number
of actions to alleviate the food security challenge, firstly focusing on resuming agricultural
production and protecting farmers. Particularly, the spring sowing campaign for maize,
barley, and other crops, as well as the summer harvesting of winter crops, is of paramount
importance. Bentley [18] recommends expanding wheat production in high-productivity
areas (North America and Europe) and in regions with suitable conditions (Sudan and
Nigeria are promising), and by increasing productivity in places where it is low (such as
Ethiopia and Turkey). Also, more efforts are needed to promote novel food production
systems such as aquaponics, aeroponics, and hydroponics nearer to home, although the
benefits may only be realized in the long term.
This research also indicates that food-dependent services requiring human labor
and/or livestock are likely to be significantly affected. Increasing support for innovations
and digital transformation would alleviate human labor issues. However, the humanlivestock interrelated issues are difficult to solve while conflict continues, and culling is
a likely outcome. If possible, livestock needs to be protected and have access to animal
feed, fodder, and veterinary medicine to avoid further stock reduction Following food
production, impacts on food transport logistics are suggested to be alleviated by initiating
alternative sources of supply and bringing supply chains home to ease over-reliance on
risky foreign suppliers. Improving the flexibility of transport logistics with respect to global
food supply chains would also be beneficial. Establishing a policy for maintaining a ‘safety
stock’ of critical food commodities should be undertaken at a national level.
For effects on the food market/retail, and consumers, it will be essential to know
the level of inflation on food products and consumer costs to build strategies to preserve
profitability without compromising affordability.
This research has also indicated that food quality may suffer as a result of the conflict.
The need for cybersecurity has risen due to the state-sponsored cyber-attacks and the
increasing level of automation in the supply chain. Devising a plan for workforce safety
and bracing for disruption to logistics and supply chain partners would be key. Therefore,
food supply chain stakeholders should work together to determine and decide on the
medium to a long-term course of action.
5. Conclusions
This article analyzed the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global food
supply chains. The hypothesis underlying this research has been confirmed in that there
will be significant impacts on the effectiveness and responsiveness of global food supply
chains as a result of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Six key areas of the food
supply chain that would be impacted due to the ongoing war were highlighted: (a) Food
production, processing, and storage, (b) Food transport logistics, (c) Food market/retail,
(d) Consumers, (e) Food dependent services, and (f) Food quality. Research showed that
although this conflict will affect the majority of the economies, however, the most affected
economies are in Europe and Africa. It is advisable for these adversely affected economies
to explore and find alternative food supply chain partners and solutions in North America,
South America, the Middle East, Australasia, and some regions of Asia and Africa that
have been less affected by this conflict. This article has also briefly suggested solutions and
strategies for the global food supply chains to counter similar warlike situations.
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, S.J., K.S. and M.A.-S.; writing, S.J., H.T., F.T., G.G.-G.,
C.P.-L., L.D., W.M., P.E.S.M., J.M.L., A.H. (Ammar Hdaifeh) and A.H. (Abdo Hassoun); review and
editing, G.G.-G., K.S., M.A.-S. and H.T. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of
the manuscript.
Foods 2022, 11, 2098
20 of 23
Funding: Thanks to GAIN (Axencia Galega de Innovación) for supporting this publication (grant
number IN607A2019/01). P.E.S.M. acknowledges postdoctoral fellowship support from the Ministry
of Science and Innovation (MCIN, Spain) “Juan de la Cierva” program (IJC2020-043358-I). G.G.-G. acknowledges the Grant ‘Juan de la Cierva Incorporación’ funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033
by “ESF Investing in your future”.
Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement: Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement: Not applicable.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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