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EURASIE ⎥ASIE MÉDIANE⎥ EXTRÊME-ORIENT ⎥ASIE DU SUD-EST⎥ASIE DU SUD ⎥ INDOPACIFIQUE ⎥PACIFIQUE Japon - Cambodge Japan - Cambodia Japan still in the game With more than 65% of approved foreign investment in Cambodia in 2023 coming from China, and the two countries signing a series of new agreements in October 2023 for further Chinese investment under the "Belt and Road" initiative, Cambodia, far from being totally under China's thumb, is seeking to better balance its economic relations, as well as its international security cooperation. In this context, the strengthening of its relations with Japan is considered to be of prime importance. The mooring of two Japanese destroyers in the port of Sihanoukville in February 2024 is an illustration of Cambodia's desire to rebalance, coupled with Japan's determination to stay in the game. December 7, 2023: relations between Cambodia and Japan are upgraded to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership on the occasion of the 70the anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries. This is the highest level of partnership for Cambodia. Since 2010, only China has enjoyed this status. BRI: Belt and Road Initiative Fumio Kishida: Japanese Prime Minister Hun Manet: Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen: former Prime Minister of Cambodia and current President of the King's Supreme Privy Council Comprehensive Strategic Partnership December 18, 2023: Cambodia-Japan summit between Hun Manet* and Fumio Kishida* . FACTS January 11, 2024: Hun Sen* and Fumio Kishida* meet in Tokyo. relations with China; February 22-24, 2024: two Japanese destroyers, the Suzumani and Shimakaze, and their 430strong crew call at the port of Sihanoukville in Cambodia. CHALLENGES For Cambodia : ➡ attempt to become an element of balance in a region increasingly marked by antagonism between China on the one hand and the United States and its allies, including Japan, on the other; ➡ reduce suspicions about the extent of its Lettre confidentielle Asie21-Futuribles n° 181/2024-03 ➡ maintain a strong business relationship with Japan at a time when, with the slowdown in economic growth, Chinese investment in Cambodia, particularly in real estate and infrastructure, is likely to decline progressively; ➡ support its drive to diversify partnerships and economic exchanges. For Japan : ➡ reduce the gap between China and Cambodia in terms of investment, trade and cooperation. According to the National Bank of Cambodia, Japan was only the fourth largest investor in the country in 2023, behind China, South Korea and Singapore and just ahead of Vietnam; ➡ show that Japan is an increasingly active security © copyright reproduction interdite 27/47 EURASIE ⎥ASIE MÉDIANE⎥ EXTRÊME-ORIENT ⎥ASIE DU SUD-EST⎥ASIE DU SUD ⎥ INDOPACIFIQUE ⎥PACIFIQUE Japon - Cambodge player in the Indo-Pacific region, strengthen its credibility with key partners, particularly within the Quad, and develop more sensitive ties with the Aukus; ➡ strengthen relations with a country enjoying strong ties with North Korea, the latter having shown signs of openness to dialogue with Japan, no doubt to facilitate a resumption of talks with the United States should Donald Trump return to the White House. FORWARD-LOOKING COMMENTS The two Japanese destroyers are stationed in the port of Sihanoukville, just a few kilometers from the Ream naval base, which is being modernized with strong support from China. In 2019, the Wall-Street Journal reported that China had obtained exclusive access to around a third of the base for a period of 30 years. The information was denied by the Cambodian authorities as contrary to the country's constitution. However, Cambodia acknowledged in October 2020 that modernization and dredging work was underway around the base to accommodate larger vessels as part of a project supported by the Chinese government. The new facilities, on which work began in June 2022, could accommodate an aircraft carrier like the Fujian (type 003). For its part, China has not commented on the Wall-Street Journal's information, leaving doubt as to the Lettre confidentielle Asie21-Futuribles n° 181/2024-03 exact content of its cooperation. Unlike the major Western powers, Japan has always refused to criticize head-on the weaknesses of Cambodia's democratic process. This restraint means that it is perceived by the Cambodian authorities as a reliable and respectful partner. This perception may work in its favor at a time when Cambodia is seeking to diversify its economic and political partnerships and avoid appearing as a "client state" of China. Following in Japan's footsteps, other countries may try to position themselves. After his visit to Paris in January, the Cambodian Prime Minister is stepping up his bilateral meetings, notably on the sidelines of international gatherings such as the recent Australia-ASEAN summit. Australia, buoyed by the success of this summit, may well try to push its pawns into the country as well, with the support of the United States. But Australia is not alone. South Korea, Singapore, even Thailand and Malaysia could well benefit from this new phase of openness in Cambodia, at least as long as China allows it. For its part, Cambodia's bid to host the 2026 Francophonie summit shows that its desire to expand goes far beyond the regional framework, and that it also aims to strengthen relations with the African continent. © copyright reproduction interdite Arnaud Leveau, Asie21 28/47