The adoption of Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) represents a novel means to mitigate natural hazards. In the framework of the OPERANDUM project, this study introduces a methodology to assess the efficiency of the NBSs and a series of Open-Air Laboratories (OALs) regarded as a proof-of-concept for the wider uptake of NBSs. The OALs are located in Finland, Greece, UK, Italy, and Ireland. The methodology is based on a wide modeling activity, incorporated in the context of future climate scenarios. Herein, we present a series of models’ chains able to estimate the efficiency of the NBSs. While the presented models are mainly well-established, their coupling represents a first fundamental step in the study of the long-term efficacy and impact of the NBSs. In the selected sites, NBSs are utilized to cope with distinct natural hazards: floods, droughts, landslides, salt intrusion, and nutrient and sediment loading. The study of the efficacy of NBSs to mitigate these hazards belongs to a seri...

Background/Question/Methods Human-induced global climate change is of major scientific and political concerns, especially when considering potential impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem processes and human well-being. One of the major aims of global change research is the development of reliable predictions on future geographic distributions of species. To date, projections tend to be focused on changes in species richness level. However, biodiversity has many facets, and one critical of them in the context of ecosystem services and function is functional diversity (FD). Assessing the predicted changes of ecosystem services is of special concern for decision makers. Here, we aimed at assessing the predicted changes of global bird FD in response to climate change. Using 1° resolution data and species distribution modeling, we modeled current and future (2100) ranges of all bird species (excluding marine and pelagic species) within an ensemble forecast framework. Then, using traits data...

Global atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) were developed to simulate the current climate and are used to predict climate change. Several Global Climate Models (GCM’s) are available for understanding and projecting climate change. GCM requires to be downscale on a basin-scale and combined with applicable hydrological models considering all components of the hydrologic process. The performance of such coupling models, such as groundwater recharge quantification, should help to make correct adaptation strategies. Climate change has the ability to affect both the quality and quantity of available groundwater, mainly through impact on recharge, evapotranspiration, pump-age and abstraction. As a consequence, groundwater is a significant contributor to the streamflow in areas with fairly shallow water resources, knowing how climate change could impact groundwater supplies is crucial for long-term water resource management. The effect of climate change on groundwater systems is v...

Understanding the soil and hydrologic processes in agricultural watersheds are vital for reliable assessments of water quantity and quality to support integrated river basin management. However, deriving hydrology-relevant information is complicated in flat data-scarce agricultural watersheds due to constraints in watershed delineation, flat topography, poor natural drainage, and irregular irrigation schedules by human intervention. The study aimed to improve the applicability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to simulate daily flow and NO3 concentrations in a flat data-scarce agricultural watershed in the Lower Seyhan Plain (LSP) in Turkey. Refined digitized stream networks, discharge data derived from fully equipped gauging stations, and satellite data (Landsat 7 ETM+, Aster GDEM, etc.) had to be integrated into the modeling process to improve the simulation quality. The model was calibrated using a 2-year (2011-2012) dataset of streamflow and NO3 using the Sequen...