Shuddhasattwa Rafiq
Deakin University, Deakin Business School, Faculty Member
- Deakin University, Deakin Graduate School of Business, Faculty Memberadd
This study investigates the effects oil price shocks on three measures of oil exporters’ and oil importers’ external balances: total trade balance, oil trade balance and non-oil trade balance. We employ three second generation... more
This study investigates the effects oil price shocks on three measures of oil exporters’ and oil importers’ external balances: total trade balance, oil trade balance and non-oil trade balance. We employ three second generation heterogeneous linear panel models as well as one recently developed non-linear panel estimation technique which allows for cross sectional dependence. With respect to 28 major oil exporting countries, while an increase in oil prices leads to an improved real oil trade balance, it is detrimental to the non-oil and total trade balance situations. This finding might be due to the expenditure effect arising from increases in proceeds from oil exports. A decrease in oil prices is found to be beneficial for both total and oil balances in these oil exporting countries. For 40 major oil importers, they seem to be increasingly shielded from positive oil shocks over the 1970s and 1980s; however, it is oil price declines that they need to worry about. A decline in oil pr...
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This paper investigates how different commodity prices are affected by unconventional monetary policies (UMP) implemented by the Federal Reserve of the United States as a response to the Global Financial Crisis. We analyze impulse... more
This paper investigates how different commodity prices are affected by unconventional monetary policies (UMP) implemented by the Federal Reserve of the United States as a response to the Global Financial Crisis. We analyze impulse responses using local projections proposed by Jorda (2005) and follow Swanson (2017)’s identification strategy for UMP shocks. We show that forward guidance (FG) and large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) shocks lead to distinct responses from commodity prices. We find that asset-like commodities, such as gold and silver, respond to these UMP shocks most aggressively. While an easing FG shock leads to increases in their prices, an easing LSAP shock has the opposite effect. This differential response suggests that these asset-like commodities are being used as inflation and exchange rate hedges. In contrast, production-like and agricultural commodities respond to UMP shocks in the same way as conventional monetary policy shocks. Consistent with previous literatu...
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This article examines the short- and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP of six emerging economies of Asia. Based on cointegration and vector error correction modeling the empirical results show that there... more
This article examines the short- and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP of six emerging economies of Asia. Based on cointegration and vector error correction modeling the empirical results show that there exists unidirectional short- and long-run causality running from energy consumption to GDP for China, uni-directional short-run causality from output to energy consumption for India, whilst bi-directional short-run causality for Thailand. Neutrality between energy consumption and income is found for Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines. Both the generalized variance decompositions and impulse response functions confirm the direction of causality. These findings have important policy implications for the countries concerned. The results suggest that while India may directly initiate energy conservation measures, China and Thailand may opt for a balanced combination of alternative polices.
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Abstract We examine the effect of air pollution clean-up measures on reducing pregnancy risks in China. Using policy-driven variations across provinces and over time, we undertake a natural experiment that examines the effect of mandated... more
Abstract We examine the effect of air pollution clean-up measures on reducing pregnancy risks in China. Using policy-driven variations across provinces and over time, we undertake a natural experiment that examines the effect of mandated Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) installation in Chinese power plants. Matching our novel measure of FGD intensity with province-level administrative data spanning the period 2002–2011, our estimates indicate that desulfurizing a power plant with a capacity of 10,000 MW decreases high-risk pregnancy for at least 177 mothers in every 10,000 cases. On the potential mechanism, we find that this desulfurization intervention decreases both prenatal and postnatal medical examinations because there is a decrease in the incidence of gynecological diseases. Our results are robust to a wide array of randomization tests, restrictive specifications, omitted variable biases, and to falsification and placebo tests. From a policy perspective, we estimate that the adoption of FGD in China saves approximately 83,405 mothers from high-risk pregnancy in a five-year period.
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We examine the effect of inter-provincial migration on air and water pollution for a panel of Chinese provinces over the period 2000-2013. To do so, we employ linear and non-linear panel data models in a Stochastic Impacts by Regression... more
We examine the effect of inter-provincial migration on air and water pollution for a panel of Chinese provinces over the period 2000-2013. To do so, we employ linear and non-linear panel data models in a Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) framework. Our findings from both the linear and non-linear models suggest that inter-provincial migration has contributed to air and water pollution. Results from the second-generation linear panel data models suggest that for every additional 10,000 inter-provincial migrants, chemical oxygen demand (COD) increases 0.33-0.58 per cent and sulphur dioxide (SO2) increases 0.15-0.33 per cent. Our results from the non-linear threshold panel model are that for every additional 10,000 inter-provincial migrants, COD increases 0.2-0.5 per cent and SO2 increases 0.10-0.20 per cent. These estimates mean that over the period 2000-2013 average interprovincial migration was responsible for 7-12.4 per cent of waste...
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This paper empirically investigates the impact of oil price volatility on six major emerging economies of Asia, namely China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. Following Andersen et al. (2004) quarterly oil price... more
This paper empirically investigates the impact of oil price volatility on six major emerging economies of Asia, namely China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. Following Andersen et al. (2004) quarterly oil price volatility is measured by using the realized volatility (RV). For China, according to the VAR analysis along with the Granger causality test, generalized impulse response functions and generalized variance decompositions, it can be inferred that oil price volatility impacts output growth in the short run. For India oil price volatility impacts both GDP growth and inflation. In Philippines oil price volatility impacts inflation. For the Indonesian economy oil price volatility impacts both GDP growth and inflation before and after the Asian financial crisis. In Malaysia oil price volatility impacts GDP growth, while there is a very little feedback from the opposite side. For Thailand, oil price volatility impacts output growth for the whole studied period....
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Total Quality Management (TQM) is a management philosophy, which focuses on customer driven quality and affects all spheres of an organization. Implementation of TQM in an organization requires everybody's participation. Today, in a... more
Total Quality Management (TQM) is a management philosophy, which focuses on customer driven quality and affects all spheres of an organization. Implementation of TQM in an organization requires everybody's participation. Today, in a competitive global environment to become a successful marketer, it is necessary to accept total quality philosophy, because a marketer's ultimate goal is to increase profitability through customer satisfaction, which can be achieved by adopting TQM. This paper discusses a descriptive model of TQM implementation for reaching quality mark and increasing profitability. A mathematical model for validating the cost of quality improvement by the organization also discussed here.
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We examine the effect of inter-provincial migration on air and water pollution for a panel of Chinese provinces over the period 2000-2013. To do so, we employ linear and non-linear panel data models in a Stochastic Impacts by Regression... more
We examine the effect of inter-provincial migration on air and water pollution for a panel of Chinese provinces over the period 2000-2013. To do so, we employ linear and non-linear panel data models in a Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) framework. Our findings from both the linear and non-linear models suggest that inter-provincial migration has contributed to air and water pollution. Results from the second-generation linear panel data models suggest that for every additional 10,000 inter-provincial migrants, chemical oxygen demand (COD) increases 0.33-0.58 per cent and sulphur dioxide (SO2) increases 0.15-0.33 per cent. Our results from the non-linear threshold panel model are that for every additional 10,000 inter-provincial migrants, COD increases 0.2-0.5 per cent and SO2 increases 0.10-0.20 per cent. These estimates mean that over the period 2000-2013 average interprovincial migration was responsible for 7-12.4 per cent of waste...
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This article examines the short- and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption and output in six non-OECD Asian developing countries. Standard time series econometrics is used for this purpose. Based on cointegration and... more
This article examines the short- and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption and output in six non-OECD Asian developing countries. Standard time series econometrics is used for this purpose. Based on cointegration and vector error correction modeling, the empirical result shows a bi-directional causality between energy consumption and income in Malaysia, while a unidirectional causality from output to energy consumption in China and Thailand and energy consumption to output in India and Pakistan. Bangladesh remains as an energy neutral economy confirming the fact that it is one of the lowest energy consuming countries in Asia. Both the generalized variance decompositions and the impulse response functions confirm the direction of causality in these countries. These findings have important policy implications for concerned countries. Countries like China and Thailand may contribute to the fight against global warming directly implementing energy conservation measures...
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Coal comprises 70 per cent of China’s primary energy source and 80 per cent of China's electricity generation. This study investigates the long-run relationship between coal consumption-economic growth nexus considering both supply... more
Coal comprises 70 per cent of China’s primary energy source and 80 per cent of China's electricity generation. This study investigates the long-run relationship between coal consumption-economic growth nexus considering both supply and demand side models in a multivariate framework over the period of 1978 and 2010. Our innovation in this paper is to include a coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator into the economic growth model ; and trade exposure in coal demand. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach, we find improvement in coal-to-efficiency indicator causes almost 35 per cent increase in real GDP in the long-run. The Toda-Yamamoto approach of causality test indicates unidirectional causality from coal consumption to economic growth; feedback effect both for coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator to economic growth and openness to coal consumption. For robustness check, using the generalised forecast error variance decomposition method we forecast th...
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Since the Great Depression, governments have routinely undertaken substantial expansionary measures to stabilize economies after major recessions. While one of the expected outcomes of such recovery efforts is to put housing and equity... more
Since the Great Depression, governments have routinely undertaken substantial expansionary measures to stabilize economies after major recessions. While one of the expected outcomes of such recovery efforts is to put housing and equity markets back on track, the persistence and magnitude of impacts vary across asset classes and type of recessions, i.e. normal vs. financial vs. disasters. We study such responses from house and equity prices by projecting their paths in the aftermath of financial crises, normal recessions and non-financial disasters since the 1870s in 17 western economies. With the help of three newly available historical datasets spanning for 143 years and by employing local projection techniques, we find that financial recessions have the most detrimental effect, causing substantial decreases in house prices, stock prices and construction costs. Post-crisis stock price declines are observed through the whole sample period, whereas both house prices and construction ...
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Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate-induced disasters. Poor and vulnerable people living in the country’s many disaster-prone areas are systematically excluded from access to the formal banking systems. Microfinance Institutions... more
Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate-induced disasters. Poor and vulnerable people living in the country’s many disaster-prone areas are systematically excluded from access to the formal banking systems. Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) provide the opportunity of financial inclusion for these people. This paper reveals that MFIs provide credit, savings and insurance products that contribute to livelihood development, though further effort could be made to align these products with climate change adaptation needs. Some of the MFIs have separate disaster management funds, which they draw on to assist their member households when disaster strikes. Some of them offer disaster-related non-financial services, like post-disaster relief and rehabilitation programmes. This paper argues however, that there is potential for MFIs to develop their products and services further to more effectively promote climate change adaptation, such as further involvement in disaster mitigation and prep...
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... and Canada. Cunado and Gracia (2005) examine the impact of oil price shocks on economic activities and inflation in six Asian countries, namely Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines. Using ...
Research Interests: Economics, Econometrics, Macroeconomics, Pergamon, Volatility Forecasting, and 15 moreImpulse response, Asian Financial Crisis, Granger causality, Macroeconomic Variables, Oil Price, Crude Oil, Price Volatility, Budget Deficit, Variance decomposition, Exchange rate regime, Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response Function, Resources Policy, Structural Break, and Realized Volatility
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Research Interests: Investment and Renewable
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This article examines the short- and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP of six emerging economies of Asia. Based on cointegration and vector error correction modeling the empirical results show that there... more
This article examines the short- and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption
and GDP of six emerging economies of Asia. Based on cointegration and vector error correction modeling the empirical results show that there exists a unidirectional shortand
long-run causality running from energy consumption to GDP for China, a unidirectional
short-run causality from output to energy consumption for India, whilst a bi-directional
short-run causality for Thailand. Neutrality between energy consumption and income is found for Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines. Following causality results India may contribute
to the fight against global warming directly implementing energy conservation measures.
For China, where causality runs from energy consumption to output, the country should focus on technological developments and mitigation policies. Since a bi-directional causality is found in Thailand, a balanced combination of alternative policies seems to be appropriate.
Nevertheless, all the countries may initiate environmental policies aimed at decreasing energy intensity, increasing energy efficiency, developing a market for emission trading.
and GDP of six emerging economies of Asia. Based on cointegration and vector error correction modeling the empirical results show that there exists a unidirectional shortand
long-run causality running from energy consumption to GDP for China, a unidirectional
short-run causality from output to energy consumption for India, whilst a bi-directional
short-run causality for Thailand. Neutrality between energy consumption and income is found for Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines. Following causality results India may contribute
to the fight against global warming directly implementing energy conservation measures.
For China, where causality runs from energy consumption to output, the country should focus on technological developments and mitigation policies. Since a bi-directional causality is found in Thailand, a balanced combination of alternative policies seems to be appropriate.
Nevertheless, all the countries may initiate environmental policies aimed at decreasing energy intensity, increasing energy efficiency, developing a market for emission trading.
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This article investigates the impact of oil price volatility on six major emerging economies in Asia using time-series cross-section and time-series econometric techniques. To assess the robustness of the findings, we further implement... more
This article investigates the impact of oil price volatility on six major emerging economies in Asia using time-series cross-section and time-series econometric techniques. To assess
the robustness of the findings, we further implement such heterogeneous panel data
estimation methods as Mean Group (MG), Common Correlated Effects Mean Group
(CCEMG) and Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimators to allow for cross-sectional
dependence. The empirical results reveal that oil price volatility has a detrimental effect on these emerging economies. In the short run, oil price volatility influenced output growth in China and affected both GDP growth and inflation in India. In the Philippines, oil price volatility impacted on inflation, but in Indonesia, it impacted on both GDP growth
and inflation before and after the Asian financial crisis. In Malaysia, oil price volatility impacted on GDP growth, although there is notably little feedback from the opposite side. For Thailand, oil price volatility influenced output growth prior to the Asian financial
crisis, but the impact disappeared after the crisis. It appears that oil subsidization by the Thai Government via introduction of the oil fund played a significant role in improving the economic performance by lessening the adverse effects of oil price volatility on macroeconomic indicators.
the robustness of the findings, we further implement such heterogeneous panel data
estimation methods as Mean Group (MG), Common Correlated Effects Mean Group
(CCEMG) and Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimators to allow for cross-sectional
dependence. The empirical results reveal that oil price volatility has a detrimental effect on these emerging economies. In the short run, oil price volatility influenced output growth in China and affected both GDP growth and inflation in India. In the Philippines, oil price volatility impacted on inflation, but in Indonesia, it impacted on both GDP growth
and inflation before and after the Asian financial crisis. In Malaysia, oil price volatility impacted on GDP growth, although there is notably little feedback from the opposite side. For Thailand, oil price volatility influenced output growth prior to the Asian financial
crisis, but the impact disappeared after the crisis. It appears that oil subsidization by the Thai Government via introduction of the oil fund played a significant role in improving the economic performance by lessening the adverse effects of oil price volatility on macroeconomic indicators.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the short- and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) of six emerging economies of Asia. The importance of identifying the direction of... more
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the short- and long-run causal relationship
between energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) of six emerging economies of Asia.
The importance of identifying the direction of causality emanates from its relevance in national
policy-making issues regarding energy conservation.
Design/methodology/approach – This paper employs co-integration and vector error correction
modeling along with generalized impulse response functions and varience decomposition tests to
check the robustness of the findings.
Findings – The empirical results show that there exists unidirectional short- and long-run causality
running from energy consumption to GDP for China, uni-directional short-run causality from output to
energy consumption for India, whilst bi-directional short-run causality for Thailand. Neutrality
between energy consumption and income is found for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Philippines. Both the
generalized variance decompositions and impulse response functions confirm the direction of
causality.
Research limitations/implications – These findings have important policy implications for the
countries concerned. The results suggest that while India may directly initiate energy conservation
measures, China and Thailand may opt for a balanced combination of alternative polices.
Originality/value – Many economists and social scientists are claiming that the increased demand
for energy from developing countries like China and India is one of the major reasons for the energy
price hikes in recent times. In this backdrop, it is justified to search causal relationship between energy
consumption and national output (GDP) of some developing countries from Asia. Since the traditional
bivariate approach suffers from omitted variable problems, this paper employs a trivariate demand
side approach consisting of energy consumption, income and prices.
between energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) of six emerging economies of Asia.
The importance of identifying the direction of causality emanates from its relevance in national
policy-making issues regarding energy conservation.
Design/methodology/approach – This paper employs co-integration and vector error correction
modeling along with generalized impulse response functions and varience decomposition tests to
check the robustness of the findings.
Findings – The empirical results show that there exists unidirectional short- and long-run causality
running from energy consumption to GDP for China, uni-directional short-run causality from output to
energy consumption for India, whilst bi-directional short-run causality for Thailand. Neutrality
between energy consumption and income is found for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Philippines. Both the
generalized variance decompositions and impulse response functions confirm the direction of
causality.
Research limitations/implications – These findings have important policy implications for the
countries concerned. The results suggest that while India may directly initiate energy conservation
measures, China and Thailand may opt for a balanced combination of alternative polices.
Originality/value – Many economists and social scientists are claiming that the increased demand
for energy from developing countries like China and India is one of the major reasons for the energy
price hikes in recent times. In this backdrop, it is justified to search causal relationship between energy
consumption and national output (GDP) of some developing countries from Asia. Since the traditional
bivariate approach suffers from omitted variable problems, this paper employs a trivariate demand
side approach consisting of energy consumption, income and prices.
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This article examines the short-run and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption and output in six non-OECD Asian developing countries. Standard time series econometrics is used for this purpose. Based on cointegration and... more
This article examines the short-run and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption and output in six non-OECD Asian developing countries. Standard time series econometrics is used for this purpose. Based on cointegration and vector error correction modeling, the empirical result shows a bi-directional causality between energy consumption and income in Malaysia, while a unidirectional causality from output to energy consumption in China and Thailand and energy consumption to output in India and Pakistan. Bangladesh remains as an energy neutral economy confirming the fact that it is one of the lowest energy consuming countries in Asia. Both the generalized variance decompositions and the impulse response functions confirm the direction of causality in these countries. These findings have important policy implications for concerned countries. Countries like China and Thailand may contribute to the fight against global warming directly implementing energy conservation measures whereas India and Pakistan may focus on technological developments and mitigation policies. For Malaysia, a balanced combination of alternative policies seems to be appropriate.
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This article investigates the impact of sectoral production allocation, energy usage patterns and trade openness on pollutant emissions in a panel consisting of high-, medium- and low-income countries. Extended STIRPAT (Stochastic Impact... more
This article investigates the impact of sectoral production allocation, energy usage
patterns and trade openness on pollutant emissions in a panel consisting of high-,
medium- and low-income countries. Extended STIRPAT (Stochastic Impact by
Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) and EKC (Environmental
Kuznets Curve) models are conducted to systematically identify these factors driving
CO2 emissions in these countries during the period 1980–2010. To this end, the study
employs three different heterogeneous, dynamic mean group-type linear panel models
and one nonlinear panel data estimation procedure that allows for cross-sectional
dependence. While affluence, nonrenewable energy consumption and energy intensity
variables are found to drive pollutant emissions in linear models, population is also
found to be a significant driver in the nonlinear model. Both service sector and
agricultural value-added levels play a significant role in reducing pollution levels,
whereas industrialisation increases pollution levels. Although the linear model fails to
track any significant impact of trade openness, the nonlinear model finds trade
liberalisation to significantly affect emission reduction levels. All of these results
suggest that economic development, and especially industrialisation strategies and
environmental policies, need to be coordinated to play a greater role in emission
reduction due to trade liberalisation.
patterns and trade openness on pollutant emissions in a panel consisting of high-,
medium- and low-income countries. Extended STIRPAT (Stochastic Impact by
Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) and EKC (Environmental
Kuznets Curve) models are conducted to systematically identify these factors driving
CO2 emissions in these countries during the period 1980–2010. To this end, the study
employs three different heterogeneous, dynamic mean group-type linear panel models
and one nonlinear panel data estimation procedure that allows for cross-sectional
dependence. While affluence, nonrenewable energy consumption and energy intensity
variables are found to drive pollutant emissions in linear models, population is also
found to be a significant driver in the nonlinear model. Both service sector and
agricultural value-added levels play a significant role in reducing pollution levels,
whereas industrialisation increases pollution levels. Although the linear model fails to
track any significant impact of trade openness, the nonlinear model finds trade
liberalisation to significantly affect emission reduction levels. All of these results
suggest that economic development, and especially industrialisation strategies and
environmental policies, need to be coordinated to play a greater role in emission
reduction due to trade liberalisation.