Sveinn Vidar Gudmundsson
Toulouse Business School, Department Strategy, Faculty Member
- Firm Performance, Strategic Alliances, Entrepreneurship, Failure Prediction, Decision Theory, Behavioral Decision Making, and 10 moreNaturalistic Decision Making, Decision Aiding, Heuristics and Biasess, Strategy, Information Systems, Airline marketing, Air Transport, Culture and Management Practices, Airlines business, and Low cost airlinesedit
- Professor Strategic Management (2000-); IRC Award Visitor, University of Sydney (2013-2014); Senior Visiting Fellow... moreProfessor Strategic Management (2000-);
IRC Award Visitor, University of Sydney (2013-2014);
Senior Visiting Fellow Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University (2008-2009);
Vice-President External Relations, Air Transport Research Society (2013-);
Vice-President Publications, Air Transport Research Society (2006-2013);
Director CERMAS Research Centre, Toulouse Business School, (2001-2006);
Course Organizer MSc International Trade and Transport, London Guildhall University, (1996-1997);
PhD Studies Cranfield University (1992-1995).edit
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Abstract This paper estimates the relationship between the strength of economic shocks and temporal recovery in the world air transport industry. Our results show that world recovery of passenger demand to pre-COVID-19 levels is estimated... more
Abstract This paper estimates the relationship between the strength of economic shocks and temporal recovery in the world air transport industry. Our results show that world recovery of passenger demand to pre-COVID-19 levels is estimated to take 2.4 years (recovery by late-2022), with the most optimistic estimate being 2 years (recovery by mid-2022), and the most pessimistic estimate 6 years (recovery in 2026). Large regional differences are detected, Asia Pacific has the shortest estimated average recovery time 2.2 years, followed by North America 2.5 years and Europe 2.7 years. For air freight the results show a shorter average world recovery time of 2.2 years compared to passenger demand. At the regional level, Europe and Asia Pacific are comparable with average recovery times of 2.2 years while North America is predicted to recover faster in 1.5 years. The results show that the strength of economic shocks of various origins impacts the linear growth of passenger and freight traffic and the temporal recovery of the industry in a predictable transitory way. Hence, the impact of the COVID-19 recession will represent a temporary, although long-lasting, correction to previous growth levels.
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This paper estimates the relationship between the strength of economic shocks and temporal recovery in the world air transport industry. Our results show that world recovery of passenger demand to pre-COVID-19 levels is estimated to take... more
This paper estimates the relationship between the strength of economic shocks and temporal recovery in the world air transport industry. Our results show that world recovery of passenger demand to pre-COVID-19 levels is estimated to take 2.4 years (recovery by late-2022), with the most optimistic estimate being 2 years (recovery by mid-2022), and the most pessimistic estimate 6 years (recovery in 2026). Large regional differences are detected, Asia Pacific has the shortest estimated average recovery time 2.2 years, followed by North America 2.5 years and Europe 2.7 years. For air freight the results show a shorter average world recovery time of 2.2 years compared to passenger demand. At the regional level, Europe and Asia Pacific are comparable with average recovery times of 2.2 years while North America is predicted to recover faster in 1.5 years. The results show that the strength of economic shocks of various origins impacts the linear growth of passenger and freight traffic and the temporal recovery of the industry in a predictable transitory way. Hence, the impact of the COVID-19 recession will represent a temporary, although long-lasting, correction to previous growth levels.
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This research concerns the role of overconfidence (OC), dependent on its psychological origins on three dimensions of entrepreneurial management that are supposed to influence entrepreneurial firm survival and performance. OC, defined as... more
This research concerns the role of overconfidence (OC), dependent on its psychological origins on three dimensions of entrepreneurial management that are supposed to influence entrepreneurial firm survival and performance. OC, defined as an overestimation of one’s own ability to make accurate forecasts, or, alternatively, as an overestimation of one’s own ability relative to others (the ‘better-than-average’ effect), is an important issue in entrepreneurship. On one hand, it could be shown that OC is positively linked to entrepreneurship (firm creation) and that entrepreneurs are generally more over-confident than other individuals such as managers. On the other hand, it had been argued that OC might increase the mortality risk of firms. In this paper, we enrich the OC discussion by taking into account the origins of OC and the effects of sources of OC on an entrepreneur’s management style, which in turn influences the survival and performance of entrepreneurial firms.
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This article explores how individual entrepreneurial orientation dimensions influence the relationship between competitive strategy and firm performance. The findings show the different impacts of individual entrepreneurial orientation... more
This article explores how individual entrepreneurial orientation dimensions influence the relationship between competitive strategy and firm performance. The findings show the different impacts of individual entrepreneurial orientation dimensions on competitive strategy and the effects of cost leadership and differentiation on performance. Innovativeness is related most highly to differentiation strategy. Risk-taking and competitive aggressiveness are negatively associated with both differentiation and cost leadership strategies. Both differentiation and cost leadership strategies are positively related to performance. This study refines our understanding of the effects of entrepreneurial orientation on small firm performance.
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The main aim of this research is to develop demand models for passenger aviation from/to Cairo airport. In pursuing this objective, the research starts by drawing a conceptualisation of the main factors affecting passenger demand for... more
The main aim of this research is to develop demand models for passenger aviation from/to Cairo airport. In pursuing this objective, the research starts by drawing a conceptualisation of the main factors affecting passenger demand for international air transport from/to Egypt. In addition, another conceptualisation is drawn portraying the factors influencing the selection of Egyptair, as a potential international carrier, by passengers. Following this a data collection exercise is conducted, whereby historical data, spanning over the 11 years ...
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Abstract: Strengthening of alliance relations through alliance processes is key to alliance success. Yet alliance partners are embedded a-priori in a network of other inter-firm relations that affect the progression of an alliance. In... more
Abstract: Strengthening of alliance relations through alliance processes is key to alliance success. Yet alliance partners are embedded a-priori in a network of other inter-firm relations that affect the progression of an alliance. In this article we address the effects of embeddedness on multilateral horizontal alliance processes in the service industries. Our model advances the understanding of how contingent factors shape inter-firm networks and thus alliance success in service industries. We also provide propositions to guide future ...
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For this special issue of the Journal of Air Transport Studies we have selected seven papers out of 193 papers that were presented at the 16th Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) World Conference. The conference was held in Tainan,... more
For this special issue of the Journal of Air Transport Studies we have selected seven papers out of 193 papers that were presented at the 16th Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) World Conference. The conference was held in Tainan, Taiwan, in June 2012 and attracted some 248 participants. In order to give the reader an overview of several decisive issues in air transport, the first paper in this ATRS special issue gives insights to ICAO’s forecasting process, the following two papers contribute to air transport safety, cabin incidents and ATC communication errors, while the next two papers lead the reader into the concept of total airport management and typologies for technology impact comparability in airports. In the subsequent paper we learn about the strategic development of cargo carriers and the last paper answers the question if alliances improve the bottom line of airlines. These papers, covered in more detail below, provide a valuable insight into current airport and airl...
This teaching case covers MTU Aero Engines, a German aerospace company. The focus is on alliances both vertical and horizontal to highlight a unique strategic position of the firm as a first tier systems supplier to the aircraft engine... more
This teaching case covers MTU Aero Engines, a German aerospace company. The focus is on alliances both vertical and horizontal to highlight a unique strategic position of the firm as a first tier systems supplier to the aircraft engine OEMs. The company enjoys a strong position in a web of relations involving most OEMs. However, more and more risk-sharing contracts involving highly innovative and complex parts means that MTU must manage its risk portfolio. The company has entered other engine related services such as the maintenance-repair-overhaul (MRO) market characterized by far more players than the engine parts business. At one stage the company was sold to the leverage-buyout company KKR in the US, raising many political issues regarding the military part of the company. Although many see MTU as a company that could become the fourth independent OEM in aero engines (GE, Rolls Royce and Pratt & Whitney) others argue against such a move. The case has been used in MBA strategy cl...
Leasing has always been an important source of finance to the U.S. airline industry. In the 1960-1970s, many carriers employed a type of lease called a financial lease as an alternative source of funds to acquire aircraft. It had a major... more
Leasing has always been an important source of finance to the U.S. airline industry. In the 1960-1970s, many carriers employed a type of lease called a financial lease as an alternative source of funds to acquire aircraft. It had a major advantage. It was "off-the-balance sheet financing" since the obligations under this type of lease appeared only in the footnotes to carrier balance sheets. Little use was made of short-term lease agreement during this period. The situation has changed radically over the past three decades. In 1976, the AICPA issued FASB #13 defining specific criteria for financial leases and then required that this "off-the-balance sheet financing" be present directly as both a leasehold asset and a long-term liability to be recorded under the long-term debt section of the balance sheet of each airline. In response, the characteristics of leasing in this industry changed substantially in two ways. Carriers began to lease more and more of their a...
The selected papers are related to our theme for this special issue on the impact of liberated air services on networks and air carrier consolidation. The United States shows signs of maturity in the domestic market with estimated 2.6... more
The selected papers are related to our theme for this special issue on the impact of liberated air services on networks and air carrier consolidation. The United States shows signs of maturity in the domestic market with estimated 2.6 percent average domestic growth and 4.3 percent international growth. In comparison, the international average is 5.2 and 5.3 percent for domestic and international, respectively (“Airlines to Welcome 3.6 Billion Passengers in 2016,” IATA press release no. 50, December 2012). It is in this background that we present our special issue. The opportunities for further growth in international markets are substantial for US air carriers and liberalized air services agreements (ASAs) and branded alliances play an important role by softening some of the regulatory restrictions imposed on market access in many countries around the world. Yet, as is evident in our special issue, the impact of increased liberalization is not always as expected at the outset.
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ABSTRACT Full deregulation of air transport first took place in the US in 1978, followed by a phased-in liberalization-deregulation approach implemented in the European Union between 1988 and 1997. Over the last twenty five years, this... more
ABSTRACT Full deregulation of air transport first took place in the US in 1978, followed by a phased-in liberalization-deregulation approach implemented in the European Union between 1988 and 1997. Over the last twenty five years, this trend has continued in the international arena, with many "open skies" bilateral and multilateral agreements signed. The deregulation process has also found strong proponents in Oceania, Latin America, and Asia. Soon it was realized that peripheral air transport services could be a source of market distortion and gradually airport and air navigation services have been liberalized as well. As expected, the removal of impediments in the market had important effects on competition, pricing strategies, commercialization and productivity. While all these changes occurred, safety has been heavily scrutinized and regulated.
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Abstract: Resource-based research sustains that organisations (and thus teams) create value through in-ternally developed and complementary acquired resources, through the management of re-sources and the development of routines. In this... more
Abstract: Resource-based research sustains that organisations (and thus teams) create value through in-ternally developed and complementary acquired resources, through the management of re-sources and the development of routines. In this study, we advance the understanding of the impact of resources and capabilities by investigating the role of moderators on the key factors of team performance and address the question when the whole is more than the sum of its parts. We develop and test hypotheses as to how ...