Ugo Panizza
The Graduate Institute of Geneva, International Economics, Faculty Member
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Regional integration initiatives have long been part of the world economic landscape. In Latin America, integration flourished in the early post-war era but then lost momentum until the 1990s, when there was a new wave of initiatives... more
Regional integration initiatives have long been part of the world economic landscape. In Latin America, integration flourished in the early post-war era but then lost momentum until the 1990s, when there was a new wave of initiatives ranging from free trade areas to customs unions. This Report examines such dimensions of integration as market access, institutional arrangements, regional infrastructure, financial integration, and macroeconomic and exchange rate coordination. It also looks at the effects on productivity, foreign direct investment and inequality. Other topics include the configuration of sub-regional integration initiatives, the Doha multilateral trade agenda, and North-South initiatives such as the Free Trade Area of the Americas and inter-regional agreements with the European Union.
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ABSTRACT (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo analizamos la manera en que los ciclos económico y de tasas de interés en países desarrollados inciden en la inversión extranjera directa (IED) destinada a los países en... more
ABSTRACT (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo analizamos la manera en que los ciclos económico y de tasas de interés en países desarrollados inciden en la inversión extranjera directa (IED) destinada a los países en desarrollo. Después de agregar los flujos en tres grandes áreas de origen (Estados Unidos, Europa y Japón), hallamos que los flujos de IED son anticíclicos con respecto tanto a los ciclos de producción como a los de tasas de interés en las primeras dos, mientras que en Japón no exhiben ningún comportamiento cíclico, ni siquiera un comportamiento medianamente cíclico. Este hallazgo se corresponde con el hecho de que los egresos de IED y la inversión en el país tienden a desplazarse en direcciones opuestas durante los ciclos en EE. UU. y Europa, lo que obedece a la ponderación de los inversionistas de diversas oportunidades de inversión. En síntesis, y contrariamente a lo que habitualmente se afirma, concluimos que es probable que las recesiones en países industrializados hagan aumentar los flujos de IED, especialmente la dirigida a aquellos países con lazos estrechos con EE. UU. y Europa.
This paper surveys the recent literature on sovereign debt and relates it to the evolution of the legal principles underlying the sovereign debt market and the experience of the most recent debt crises and defaults. It finds limited... more
This paper surveys the recent literature on sovereign debt and relates it to the evolution of the legal principles underlying the sovereign debt market and the experience of the most recent debt crises and defaults. It finds limited support for theories that explain the feasibility of sovereign debt based on either external sanctions or exclusion from the international capital market and more support for explanations that emphasize domestic costs of default. The paper concludes that there remains a case for establishing institutions that reduce the cost of default but the design of such institutions is not a trivial task.
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ABSTRACT This paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the role of state-owned banks and also presents some new results and a robustness analysis. After having discussed whether there is a theoretical justification for... more
ABSTRACT This paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the role of state-owned banks and also presents some new results and a robustness analysis. After having discussed whether there is a theoretical justification for the presence of state-owned banks, the paper focuses on their performance. Three basic facts emerge: (i) state-owned banks located in developing countries are characterized by lower profitability than comparable privately owned banks; (ii) there is no evidence that the presence of state-owned banks promotes economic growth or financial development; and (iii) the evidence that state-owned banks lead to lower growth and financial development is not as strong as previously thought. The paper concludes that we still do not know enough to pass a final judgment on the role of state-owned banks and hence more research is needed.
The Mystery of Original Sin Barry Eichengreen, Ricardo Hausmann, and Ugo Panizza Previous chapters have shown that inability to borrow abroad in the do-mestic currency (original sin) is an important factor in the macroeconomic and... more
The Mystery of Original Sin Barry Eichengreen, Ricardo Hausmann, and Ugo Panizza Previous chapters have shown that inability to borrow abroad in the do-mestic currency (original sin) is an important factor in the macroeconomic and financial instability of emerging markets. ...
Existe una vasta literatura que muestra que la política fiscal en países industrializados es acíclica o contracíclica y procíclica en países emergentes. Mucha de esta literatura se basa en regresiones MCO que se enfocan en la correlación... more
Existe una vasta literatura que muestra que la política fiscal en países industrializados es acíclica o contracíclica y procíclica en países emergentes. Mucha de esta literatura se basa en regresiones MCO que se enfocan en la correlación entre una variable fiscal (usualmente el balance presupuestario o crecimiento del gasto) ya sea crecimiento del PIB o alguna medida de la brecha del producto. Este paper argumenta que tal metodología no permite la identificación del efecto del ciclo real en la política fiscal y por lo tanto no se puede usar para estimar funciones de reacción de política. El paper propone un nuevo instrumento para el crecimiento del PIB y muestra que una vez que éste esté debidamente instrumentado, la prociclicidad tiende a desaparecer.
( Disponible en idioma ingl�s �nicamente) En este trabajo se demuestra que los d�ficit presupuestarios constituyen una porci�n relativamente peque�a del crecimiento de la deuda y que la conciliaci�n entre las existencias y los flujos, que... more
( Disponible en idioma ingl�s �nicamente) En este trabajo se demuestra que los d�ficit presupuestarios constituyen una porci�n relativamente peque�a del crecimiento de la deuda y que la conciliaci�n entre las existencias y los flujos, que a menudo se considera una entidad residual, es uno de los factores determinantes de la din�mica de la deuda. Tras explicarse la importancia de la conciliaci�n entre las existencias y los flujos se demuestra que los pasivos contingentes y los efectos en el balance general contribuyen en parte a esta entidad residual.
(Disponible en idioma inglés) La base de datos se puede acceder en: http://www. iadb. org/res/pub_desc. cfm?pub_id=DBA-005
In this paper we consider a set countries with a de jure floating exchange rate and show that there are substantial differences in their exchange rate policies. In particular, we explore how the ability to borrow in own currency and the... more
In this paper we consider a set countries with a de jure floating exchange rate and show that there are substantial differences in their exchange rate policies. In particular, we explore how the ability to borrow in own currency and the degree of passthrough from exchange rate to prices affect the degree of exchange rate management. We find strong evidence for a negative link between exchange rate flexibility and ability to borrow in own currency, and a much weaker link between passthrough and exchange rate flexibility.
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Olivares-Caminal, Rodrigo (2010)'Avoiding Avoidable Debt Crises: Lessons from Recent Defaults.'In: Primo-Braga, Carlos A and Vincelette, Gallina A,(eds.), Sovereign Debt and the Financial Crisis: Will This Time be... more
Olivares-Caminal, Rodrigo (2010)'Avoiding Avoidable Debt Crises: Lessons from Recent Defaults.'In: Primo-Braga, Carlos A and Vincelette, Gallina A,(eds.), Sovereign Debt and the Financial Crisis: Will This Time be Different. World Bank.
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This paper discusses whether a country should conduct fiscal policy by targeting a structural (or cyclically adjusted) fiscal balance. The paper is divided into three sections. The first section discusses the concept of cyclically... more
This paper discusses whether a country should conduct fiscal policy by targeting a structural (or cyclically adjusted) fiscal balance. The paper is divided into three sections. The first section discusses the concept of cyclically adjusted balance (CAB) and points out practical and conceptual problems related to the interpretation and the measurement of a CAB. The second section discusses the theoretical