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Bu calismada, 2007 yilinda ABD'de baslayan ve tum gelismis ve gelismekte olan piyasalari etkileyen finansal kriz neticesinde “acaba kapitalizmin sonu mu geldi?” turunden cok sik telaffuz edilen bir soruya cevap aranmaktadir. Soz... more
Bu calismada, 2007 yilinda ABD'de baslayan ve tum gelismis ve gelismekte olan piyasalari etkileyen finansal kriz neticesinde “acaba kapitalizmin sonu mu geldi?” turunden cok sik telaffuz edilen bir soruya cevap aranmaktadir. Soz konusu beklentiye yol acan temel faktor ise, Marx' in kapitalizmin kendi ic celiskileri nedeniyle nihayetinde ortaya cikacak olan krizlerle cokecegi beklentisidir. Zira piyasalar da tipki onlara sekil veren insanlar gibi zaman zaman hasta olabilmektedir. Her hastanin olecegi beklentisi ne kadar yanlis ise, piyasalarda meydana gelen her kriz veya bunalim durumunda serbest piyasa ekonomisinin cokecegi beklentisi bosa cikmaktadir. Avusturyan Okuluna gore, piyasa insan faaliyetinin bir sonucu oldugu icin, belirsizliklerin olmasi da kacinilmazdir. Klasik iktisatcilarin varsaydigi gibi piyasa enformasyonu bireylerce kesin olarak bilinemez. Enformasyon bireylerce sahiplendigi bir durumda piyasada, uretici ve tuketiciler acisindan, uyumsuzluklarin olmasi bek...
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ÖZET:. Bu çalışmada zaman serisi veri grubu kullanılarak reel döviz kuru belirsizliği ile borsa getirisi arasındaki bağ deneysel olarak incelemiştir. Çalışmada kullanılan veri setleri, döviz kuru Amerikan doları (usd) efektif alış... more
ÖZET:. Bu çalışmada zaman serisi veri grubu kullanılarak reel döviz kuru belirsizliği ile borsa getirisi arasındaki bağ deneysel olarak incelemiştir. Çalışmada kullanılan veri setleri, döviz kuru Amerikan doları (usd) efektif alış verileri Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) istatistiklerinden,Şirketlere ait getiri verileride I.M.K.B istatistiklerinden elde edilmiştir. İMKB'de farklı sektörlerde faaliyet gösteren beş şirket ve Holdingin hisse senedi getirileri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada kullanılan veriler 1986:5 ve 2012:2 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Öncelikle seriler birim kök testi yapılarak trend etkisinden arındırılmışlardır Döviz kuru belirsizliği ARCH/GARCH modelleri ile incelenmiştir. Döviz kuru belirsizlikleri ile borsa getirisinin göstergesi olan değişkenler arasında ilişki olup olmadığı Engle-Grangereşbütünleşim testi ile regresyon analizine tabi tutulmuştur. Ele alınan beş şirketin İMKB getirisi ile döviz kuru belirsizlikleri arasında bir eşbütünleşiminvar olduğu tespi...
본 연구는 현대사회의 가족구조 변화에 따라 나타나는 다양한 가족유형 중 한 부모가족이 있는 초등학생들에 대한 이해와 수용을 높이기 위해 반 편견교육 프로그램을 실시하고 그 효과를 검증하였다. 한 부모가족이 된 아동은 한쪽 부모의 부재로 인한 경제적 어려움이나 가족 내의 역할긴장 그리고 사회적인 차별의식으로 어려움을 경험한다. 본 연구의 목적은 반 편견의식교육을 통해 지역사회에서 한 부모가족의 아동들이 경험하는 차별을... more
본 연구는 현대사회의 가족구조 변화에 따라 나타나는 다양한 가족유형 중 한 부모가족이 있는 초등학생들에 대한 이해와 수용을 높이기 위해 반 편견교육 프로그램을 실시하고 그 효과를 검증하였다. 한 부모가족이 된 아동은 한쪽 부모의 부재로 인한 경제적 어려움이나 가족 내의 역할긴장 그리고 사회적인 차별의식으로 어려움을 경험한다. 본 연구의 목적은 반 편견의식교육을 통해 지역사회에서 한 부모가족의 아동들이 경험하는 차별을 해소하기 위한 초등학생들의 의식을 고취시키고, 다양한 가족유형을 수용할 수 있는 이해력을 증진시키는데 있다. 반 편견 교육 프로그램은 1980년대 인종차별이 심했던 미국에서 인종, 성, 약소집단, 소수민족, 계층, 장애, 문화 등의 영역에서 발생하는 인권과 차별의 지역사회문제에 대한 교육적 개입전략으로 Louise Derman-Sparks와 A.B.C. Task Force팀에 의해 개발된 교육적 철학이자 실천적 접근이다. 한부모가족유형에 대한 반편견 교육 프로그램은 가족구조나 가족성원의 수보다는 가족의 기능과 운영의 중요성을 강조하는 내용으로 구성되었다. 본 연구의 방법은 반 편견 교육 프로그램을 매주 1회 총 10회기로 진행하고, 비동일통제집단전후비교설계에 의해 프로그램 참여학생 전체를 대상으로 가족운영 중요도에 대해 전후 검사를 실시하였다. 통제집단과 실험집단의 전후 점수 차이를 살펴보기 위해 맨 휘트니 U 검증을 실시하였다. 그리고 프로그램 진행과정에서 나타난 가족 수용도의 변화유형에 대해서는 진술내용을 토대로 내용분석을 실시하였다. 연구결과 가족운영의 중요성에서 프로그램 실시 전보다 실시 후에 향상된 결과를 나타냈고, 가족 수용도는 프로그램이 진행되는 과정에서 증가되는 양상을 나타냈다. 이러한 결과를 토대로 본 프로그램은 양 부모가족의 초등학생들이 한 부모가족유형과 그 아동에 대해 반 편견 의식을 갖고, 수용과 통합의 태도와 행동변화를 갖도록 유도할 수 있다는 점에서 효과성은 입증되었다. 향후 학교와 지역사회복지 실천현장에서 지역주민의...
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The aim of this study is to examine the effects of information and communications technology (ICT) on economic development of several Central Asian countries. Dumitrescu and Hurlin (DH) panel causality test has been used for the... more
The aim of this study is to examine the effects of information and communications technology (ICT) on economic development of several Central Asian countries. Dumitrescu and Hurlin (DH) panel causality test has been used for the relationship between ICT and economic development. The DH test results indicate that a unidirectional causality exists from GDP per capital to Inter-net use. These results suggest that an increase in GDP per capita can stimulate internet use. In addition, the cross-sectional dependence is examined using LM test of Breusch and Pagan and CD-LM and CD test of Pesaran. The results suggest that the null-hypothesis, no crosssectional dependence exists among countries, is rejected for all the tests, suggesting an economic shock in a one country may have spillover effects on other countries.
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This study investigates the short-term and long-term relationship and causality between inflation and foreign direct investments during the 1974–2018 periods for Turkey. The Johansen and Juselius Cointegration Method and the Error... more
This study investigates the short-term and long-term relationship and causality between inflation and foreign direct investments during the 1974–2018 periods for Turkey. The Johansen and Juselius Cointegration Method and the Error Correction Method (VECM) have been applied to examine this issue. After finding the cointegration between the variables, the VECM has been estimated and long-term and short-term causality tests have been carried out based on the VECM. The results have shown that there is no short-term causality between inflation and foreign direct investments in both models. However, the fact that the coefficient of the error correction term (ECT) is negative and significant in both models indicates that there is a long-term causality between inflation and foreign direct investment. An increase in foreign direct investment may lead to a moderate increase in inflation over a long time period.
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Abstract: This paper investigates cointegration and causality among exchange rate, military expenditures, and economic growth for Turkish economy. For this purpose, this study applied the Granger-causality (GC) and error correction (EC)... more
Abstract: This paper investigates cointegration and causality among exchange rate, military expenditures, and economic growth for Turkish economy. For this purpose, this study applied the Granger-causality (GC) and error correction (EC) techniques on 1974-2005 data for Turkey. The results show that military expenditures negatively affect economic growth, but this effect is not significant. This conclusion is meaningful for Turkey since she has problems with neighboring countries. Therefore, reducing military expenditures increase security problems. On the other hand, this study found bi-directional causality between level of exchange rate and economic growth (GDP).
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Bu calisma doviz kuru, faiz haddi ve para arzi iliskisini Kazakistan ekonomisi icin 2005:052017:06 donemi icin analiz etmektedir. Calismada ilk olarak degiskenler arasinda uzun donem iliski olup olmadigi Johansen esbutunlesme testi... more
Bu calisma doviz kuru, faiz haddi ve para arzi iliskisini Kazakistan ekonomisi icin 2005:052017:06 donemi icin analiz etmektedir. Calismada ilk olarak degiskenler arasinda uzun donem iliski olup olmadigi Johansen esbutunlesme testi kullanilarak sinanmistir. Johansen testine gore, esbutunlesme olmadigi icin sinirli olmayan VAR modeli ve VAR nedensellik yontemi kullanilmistir. Gerek VAR modelinde gerekse VAR nedensellik yonteminde faiz haddi ve doviz kuru arasinda bir iliski bulunmustur. VAR nedensellik sonucuna gore, “faiz haddi doviz kurunun Granger nedeni degildir” seklindeki ve “doviz kuru faiz haddinin Granger nedeni degildir” bicimindeki bos hipotez red edilmektedir. Yani doviz kuru ve faiz haddi arasinda cift yonlu bir nedensellik soz konusudur
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Bu calismada zaman serisi veri grubu kullanilarak reel doviz kuru belirsizligi ile borsa getirisi arasindaki bag deneysel olarak incelemistir. Calismada kullanilan veri setleri, doviz kuru Amerikan dolari (usd) efektif alis verileri... more
Bu calismada zaman serisi veri grubu kullanilarak reel doviz kuru belirsizligi ile borsa getirisi arasindaki bag deneysel olarak incelemistir. Calismada kullanilan veri setleri, doviz kuru Amerikan dolari (usd) efektif alis verileri Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi (TCMB) istatistiklerinden,Şirketlere ait getiri verileride I.M.K.B istatistiklerinden elde edilmistir. IMKB’de farkli sektorlerde faaliyet gosteren bes sirket ve Holdingin hisse senedi getirileri kullanilmistir. Calismada kullanilan veriler 1986:5 ve 2012:2 donemini kapsamaktadir. Oncelikle seriler birim kok testi yapilarak trend etkisinden arindirilmislardir Doviz kuru belirsizligi ARCH/GARCH modelleri ile incelenmistir. Doviz kuru belirsizlikleri ile borsa getirisinin gostergesi olan degiskenler arasinda iliski olup olmadigi Engle-Grangeresbutunlesim testi ile regresyon analizine tabi tutulmustur. Ele alinan bes sirketin IMKB getirisi ile doviz kuru belirsizlikleri arasinda bir esbutunlesiminvar oldugu tespit edilmisti...
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This paper examines the cointegration and causality among exchange rate, export, and import for Turkey during the period of 1998-2006. The econometrics results show that there is a cointegration between exports and import, but direction... more
This paper examines the cointegration and causality among exchange rate, export, and import for Turkey during the period of 1998-2006. The econometrics results show that there is a cointegration between exports and import, but direction of causality is bi-directional between these two variables. The impulse response functions also supports that there is a trade-off between exports and imports; for example, when imports are high, there is smaller exports at that time. This study supports few investigators who find no negative effect of exchange rate volatility on trade volume since it is found that exchange rates cannot determine the variation in exports and imports.
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By analyzing time series data, the relation between the money uncertainties was empirically investigated. The time series data sets used in this study were taken from the statistics of Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB). In addition stock... more
By analyzing time series data, the relation between the money uncertainties was empirically investigated. The time series data sets used in this study were taken from the statistics of Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB). In addition stock exchange yields of five companies or holdings traded on Istanbul Stock Exchange (IMKB) were used. The data set used in this study comprises the period from 1986:5 to 2012:2. First, time series were cleaned out from trend effect with the help of unite root test and then money supply uncertainty were investigated with ARCH/GARCH models. To see whether there is a relation between the independent variables, money uncertainty and the dependent variable, stock exchange yield, Engle-Granger cointegration test and regression analysis were applied. The findings revealed that there is a co-integration between stock exchange yield and variables of money supply uncertainty. The results obtained also indicated that money uncertainty have a significant effect on the ...
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This study examines that why developing countries attract different amount of direct investment. Thus, the paper considers many different factors, such as economic, politic, and socio-cultural factors. The paper firstly uses Levin, Lin... more
This study examines that why developing countries attract different amount of direct investment. Thus, the paper considers many different factors, such as economic, politic, and socio-cultural factors. The paper firstly uses Levin, Lin and Chu (2002) tests in order to if series have unit roots or not. The study takes into account of the period of 1996-2006 and 26 developing countries by using panel study and uses nine different independent variables. These are: Real GDP growth, current account deficit, inflation, openness, labor productivity, economic freedom, political right, corruption, economic integration. The study concludes that these variables affect foreign direct investment for developing countries.
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Ekonomik teori, para politikasinin uretimi artirma yeteneginin ekonominin disa acilmasi ile azaldi-gini, buna karsin enflasyonu artirici bir etkisinin oldugunu iddia etmektedir. Bu calismada, Turkiye icin 1950-2003 verileri kullanilarak... more
Ekonomik teori, para politikasinin uretimi artirma yeteneginin ekonominin disa acilmasi ile azaldi-gini, buna karsin enflasyonu artirici bir etkisinin oldugunu iddia etmektedir. Bu calismada, Turkiye icin 1950-2003 verileri kullanilarak teorik tahminlerin bu calismanin sonuclariyla ne kadar tutarli oldugu tek-rar test edilmistir. Makalenin ampirik sonuclari, ekonomi disa acildikca para arzinin uretim uzerindeki etkisinin azalacagini varsayan teorik tahminleri desteklemektedir. Hangi degiskenlerin GDP’ yi belirle-digini gostermek icin En Kucuk Kareler Yontemi (OLS) kullanilmistir. Ilk olarak, reel petrol fiyatlarindaki artisin GDP’ yi negatif olarak etkiledigi bulunmus, ayni zamanda, reel para arzindaki artisin da GDP’ yi olumsuz olarak etkiledigi, ancak bu etkinin istatistiki olarak anlamli olmadigi sonucu elde edilmistir. Da-ha sonra, reel para arzi ve disa acikligin bir donem gecikmesi modele dahil edilmis ve disa acikligin katsayisi negatif ve istatistiki olarak anlamli bulunmust...
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Bu calisma Turkiye’de cari acik ve butce acigi arasindaki iliskiyi konu alir. Bu orguyu analiz etmek icin yapar sinir aglari kullanilmistir. Ampirik analizin sonuclarina gore, iki acik arasinda pozitif bir korelasyon olduguna isaret eden... more
Bu calisma Turkiye’de cari acik ve butce acigi arasindaki iliskiyi konu alir. Bu orguyu analiz etmek icin yapar sinir aglari kullanilmistir. Ampirik analizin sonuclarina gore, iki acik arasinda pozitif bir korelasyon olduguna isaret eden ikiz aciklar hipotezi Turkiye orneginde gecerli degildir. Bu makale, boyle bir korelasyonun ortaya cikmamasinin nedenlerini aciklamaya calisirken bir hipotezi veya bir teoriyi tamamiyla reddetmeyen esnek bir anlayis-sezgiyi esas alir ve bir hipotezin, teorinin veya bir modelin reddedilmesi veya dogrulanmasindan ziyade bunlarin hangi kosullarda gecersiz veya gecerli oldugunun analiz edilmesinin alan yazinda anahtar oldugunu vurgular
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This Study examines the interaction of current account (CA) deficits with other macroeconomic and demographic variables such as per capita GDP, inflation rate (INF), government consumption (Govc), electric consumption (epw), fertility... more
This Study examines the interaction of current account (CA) deficits with other macroeconomic and demographic variables such as per capita GDP, inflation rate (INF), government consumption (Govc), electric consumption (epw), fertility rate (fert), domestic credit to private sector (Dcr), industry value added (iva), life expectancy for Turkey (lifexp), and population age 65 or above (pop) using specification methods on Least Squares Methods (OLS). The dependent variable is per capita GDP since it represents well-being of a country. Recent debates in the Turkish Congress and in the media are full of acrimony about the accretion of the CA deficits because they believe that huge current account deficit is a sign of an economic crisis in the near future. Thus, this study’s priority is to test whether the CA deficit may deteriorate well-being of Turkey and which in turn cause economic crises or not.
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This paper investigates cointegration and causality among exchange rate, military expenditures, and economic growth for Turkish economy. For this purpose, this study applied the Granger-causality (GC) and error correction (EC) techniques... more
This paper investigates cointegration and causality among exchange rate, military expenditures, and economic growth for Turkish economy. For this purpose, this study applied the Granger-causality (GC) and error correction (EC) techniques on 1974-2005 data for Turkey. The results show that military expenditures negatively affect economic growth, but this effect is not significant. This conclusion is meaningful for Turkey since she has problems with neighboring countries. Therefore, reducing military expenditures increase security problems. On the other hand, this study found bi-directional causality between level of exchange rate and economic growth (GDP).
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An economic crisis is typically a rare kind of an event but it impedes monetary stability, fiscal stability, financial stability, price stability, and sustainable economic development when it appears. Economic crises have huge adverse... more
An economic crisis is typically a rare kind of an event but it impedes monetary stability, fiscal stability, financial stability, price stability, and sustainable economic development when it appears. Economic crises have huge adverse effects on economic and social system. This study uses an artificial neural network learning paradigm to predict economic crisis events for early warning aims. This paradigm is being preferred due to its flexible modeling capacity and can be applied easily to any time series since it does not require prior conditions such as stationary or normal distribution. The present article analyzes economic crises occurred in Turkey for the period 1990-2011. The main question addressed in this paper is whether currency crises can be estimated by using artificial neural networks.
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This article investigates the variations in the incidence of poverty depending on the changes in economic, social, and demographic factors of the Turkish employees. The objective of this study is to examine the relationship between... more
This article investigates the variations in the incidence of poverty depending on the changes in economic, social, and demographic factors of the Turkish employees. The objective of this study is to examine the relationship between likelihood of poverty and unionization in the Turkish labor market. Because of the lack of comprehensive data, a detailed research on the poverty issues in the Turkish labor market in great detail has long been a problem for researchers. Previous studies have emphasized the poverty measurements using various definitions of poverty. This study focuses to test whether the unions are really effective in reducing the probability of poverty among their members versus non-unionized employees. JEL Codes: C5, I3, J3, R23
This article investigates the variations in the incidence of poverty depending on the changes in economic, social, and demographic factors of the Turkish employees. The objective of this study is to examine the relationship between... more
This article investigates the variations in the incidence of poverty depending on the changes in economic, social, and demographic factors of the Turkish employees. The objective of this study is to examine the relationship between likelihood of poverty and unionization in the Turkish labor market. Because of the lack of comprehensive data, a detailed research on the poverty issues in the Turkish labor market in great detail has long been a problem for researchers. Previous studies have emphasized the poverty measurements using various definitions of poverty. This study focuses to test whether the unions are really effective in reducing the probability of poverty among their members versus non-unionized employees.
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The aim of this study is to examine the effects of information and communications technology (ICT) on economic development of several Central Asian countries. Dumitrescu and Hurlin (DH) panel causality test has been used for the... more
The aim of this study is to examine the effects of information and communications technology (ICT) on economic development of several Central Asian countries. Dumitrescu and Hurlin (DH) panel causality test has been used for the relationship between ICT and economic development. The DH test results indicate that a unidirectional causality exists from GDP per capital to Inter-net use. These results suggest that an increase in GDP per capita can stimulate internet use. In addition, the cross-sectional dependence is examined using LM test of Breusch and Pagan and CD-LM and CD test of Pesaran. The results suggest that the null-hypothesis, no cross-sectional dependence exists among countries, is rejected for all the tests, suggesting an economic shock in a one country may have spillover effects on other countries.
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The choice of exchange rate regimes in the countries to take advantage of stabilization policies was quite difficult. After the breakdown of the USSR, the KR among the former member countries in the Central Asia was the first to introduce... more
The choice of exchange rate regimes in the countries to take advantage of stabilization policies was quite difficult. After the breakdown of the USSR, the KR among the former member countries in the Central Asia was the first to introduce its national currency on 10th of May 1993. After that time, it has done several adjustments in the exchange rate policy to preserve the value of the som from external shocks. In the study, the effectiveness of the exchange rate policy on GDP and GDP components is examined by using the ARDL model by Pesaran et al. (2001). The estimation results show that the depreciation of som has positive significant short- and long-run effects on GDP growth. However, while it has insignificant effect on most of the GDP component variables in the short-run, it has negative significant long-run effect.
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The Granger-causality (GC) and error correction (ECM) techniques were applied 1980-2005 data for Turkey to examine cointegration and causality among foreign direct investment(FDI) in tourism sector, overall GDP, and exchange rate... more
The Granger-causality (GC) and error correction (ECM) techniques were applied 1980-2005 data for Turkey to examine cointegration and causality among foreign direct investment(FDI) in tourism sector, overall GDP, and exchange rate volatility (EX). According to the ECM technique, the hypothesis that “no cointegration” was rejected for all three variables. The GC results detect causality runs from one-way from GDP to FDI, but the GC results detect bi-directional causality between GDP and EX suggesting that GDP and EX are jointly determined, but one way causality running from FDI to EX.
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Recent studies consider education and human capital growth as a main source of economic growth. In the classical model, population growth and capital accumulation was envisaged as an engine of economic development. Population and market... more
Recent studies consider education and human capital growth as a main source of economic growth. In the classical model, population growth and capital accumulation was envisaged as an engine of economic development. Population and market rate of wages were believed to have mutual affinity. Neoclassical model, it is known as Solow Model, shows capital accumulation would increase the growth rates in the short run, but cannot generate any long run GDP growth rate increase. The Solow model implies that economies will conditionally converge to the same level of income, given that they have the same rates of savings, depreciation, labor force growth, and productivity growth. This study firstly examines the structural and economic changes in Turkish economy and then analysis the effect of education and the role of technical progress on Turkish economic growth during the period 1990-2012. This study finds out that the real GDP growth rate is dependent on capital formation and growth rate of ...
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Recent studies consider education and human capital growth as a main source of economic growth. In the classical model, population growth and capital accumulation was envisaged as an engine of economic development. Population and market... more
Recent studies consider education and human capital growth as a main source of economic growth. In the classical model, population growth and capital accumulation was envisaged as an engine of economic development. Population and market rate of wages were believed to have mutual affinity. Neoclassical model, it is known as Solow Model, shows capital accumulation would increase the growth rates in the short run, but cannot generate any long run GDP growth rate increase. The Solow model implies that economies will conditionally converge to the same level of income, given that they have the same rates of savings, depreciation, labor force growth, and productivity growth. This study firstly examines the structural and economic changes in Turkish economy and then analysis the effect of education and the role of technical progress on Turkish economic growth during the period 1990-2012. This study finds out that the real GDP growth rate is dependent on capital formation and growth rate of ...
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... almaktadır. 11 Fuat SEKMEN Page 12. Uluslararası rezervler, faiz oranları ve döviz kurlarındaki ani değişmelerle belirlenen para krizlerinin aksine, bankacılık krizlerini belirlemede kullanılacak parametreler bulmak daha zordur. ...
Political corruption has received increasing attention in the recent literature as it leads to crises in both industrialized and developing countries. This study examines the level of corruption and for this purpose this study tries to... more
Political corruption has received increasing attention in the recent literature as it leads to crises in both industrialized and developing countries. This study examines the level of corruption and for this purpose this study tries to find out the question of what determines political corruption. Foreign aid, the world policy index, GDP per worker, democracy, British colony, religion, women in the parliament, ethnolinguistic fractionalization, and the number of years of schooling are used as explanatory variables. The ordinary least squares (OLS) and a parsimonious specification is used in order to identify the insignificant variables which will be dropped sequentially from the first setup, so as to arrive at a final specification. Yet, the core variables are kept, which were the number of years of democratic government (Durable), and the percentage of population with Protestant religious affiliation (Prot), and enthnolinguistic fractionalization (Etf), from the first specification...
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Downloadable (with restrictions)! This study examines that why developing countries attract different amount of direct investment. Thus, the paper considers many different factors, such as economic, politic, and socio-cultural factors.... more
Downloadable (with restrictions)! This study examines that why developing countries attract different amount of direct investment. Thus, the paper considers many different factors, such as economic, politic, and socio-cultural factors. The paper firstly uses Levin, Lin and Chu (2002 ...