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2016 •
Pri izradi saobraćajno-tehničkog veštačenja, poseban značaj predstavlja vremensko-prostorna analiza saobra-ćajne nezgode, odnosno analiza mogućnosti izbegavanja nastanka saobraćajne nezgode. Brzina pri kojoj je učesnik saobraćajne nezgode imao mogućnost izbegavanja nastanka saobraćajne nezgode može se utvrditi primenom vremenskogili prostornog kriterijuma. Primena različitih kriterijuma daje različite rezultate u analizi mogućnosti izbegavanja nastanka saobraćajne nezgode, pa se postavlja pitanje u kojim situacija je opravdana primena vremenskog, a u kojim primenaprostornog kriterijuma.
Предмет истраживања представља утврёивања геопросторне и временске дистрибуције цунамија у светском геопростору у периоду од 1900. до 2013. године. Имајући у виду да се ради о масовној појави која се састоји из мноштва јединица, најпрепоручљивији научни метод за доношење закључака о цунамију јесте статистичка метода. При томе, само статистичко истраживање је спроведено на тај начин што су у првом кораку преузети необраёени подаци о свим природним катастрофама (25.552) у виду ,,Excel‖ фајла из меёународне базе података о катастрофама (CRED) у Бриселу, а затим су анализирани у програму за статистичку обраду података SPSS. У оквиру геопросторне дистрибуције анализиран је укупан број и последице цунамија по континентима. По истом принципу, у оквиру временске анализе разматрана је дистрибуција укупног броја и последица цунамија на годишњем, месечном и дневном нивоу.
Гидрометеорологические исследования и прогнозы
Пространственно-временные особенности распределения осадков на территории АзербайджанаThe characteristics of spatiotemporal distribution of the amount of precipitation within the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan between 1961 and 2016 were investigated using observational data from 45 hydrometeorological stations. Main attention is paid to regional features. The statistical analysis for three time periods: 1881– 1960, 1961–2016, 1991–2016 showed that an increase in average annual total precipita- tion was registered in most of the country in 1961–2016 as opposed to 1881–1960. In addition to this, a decrease in average annual total precipitation for 1991–2016 as compared to 1961–1990 was found for most stations. The results of the study may be useful for scientific research, as well as for developing and implementing projects in agriculture and other economic sectors. 2, 3
Вестник РУДН. Серия: Инженерные исследования
Способы оценки сейсмичности территории СирииВ статье рассмотрены оценки изменения магнитуд сейсмических событий за два года (2005—2006 гг.) по данным сейсмических каталогов. Для этого периода построены и сопоставлены между собой графики закономерности повторяемости землетрясений. Проведен анализ графиков повторяемости ряда зон, построенных при сейсмическом районировании, и определена связь коэффициента А с механизмом очага землетрясе- ния. Выполнено прогнозирование сейсмических событий в регионе на основе сейс- мического районирования. Представлено деление территории на районы с разной степенью интенсивности произошедших и ожидаемых землетрясений. Данные сейс- мического районирования могут использоваться при проектировании и строительстве сейсмостойких сооружений и для решения других практических задач на сейсмически опасной территории. В этом заключается прикладной аспект сейсмического райони- рования. Для составления карт сейсмического районирования использованы истори- ческие данные и инструментальные наблюдения за землетрясениями, геолого-текто- нические и геофизические карты, а также данные о движении блоков земной коры. Выделены участки возможного возникновения очагов землетрясения (зоны ВОЗ) с различными глубинами. Показано, что наибольшую опасность представляют земле- трясения с очагами в пределах земной коры. Приведен статистический анализ по зем- летрясениям в Сирии с учетом исторических землетрясений на основе летописей. Установлено наличие связей между выявленными землетрясениями и планетарными событиями Земли, в том числе солнечной активностью. Отмечается повышение сейс- мической активности в зимнее время
From ancient times its was known and recognized that there is no horrible fad of nature than the strong earthquake. Only when the ground strongly swings, the man realizes all the power of nature and his inability in front of unpredictable, short-term and deadly earthquake, which for the moment kills hundreds and thousands of people and destroy their centuries-old achievements. Earthquakes with their horrible consequences, since immemorial time caused primeval fear within people and animals. Element of nature has removed the human dwellings that were built so that they can resist, from the first, natural shelter - caves, to the present urban structures. Like water, fire, hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes were attributed to supernatural forces - gods and their evil moods humanity. Key words: earthquake, tsunami, seismology, seismic zone
БЕЗБЈЕДНОСТ ПОЛИЦИЈА ГРАЂАНИ
ФЕНОМЕНОЛОГИЈА ПРИРОДНИХ КАТАСТРОФА теоријско одређење и класификација природних катастрофаEXTENDED ABSTRACT Тhe surrounding of Nis has been known for various geothermal manifestations (see Figure 3 and 4). The city itself has direct use of Nis Spa, where а couple of sites have been used for balneology and where heating systems have been installed. However, other local resources in Nis surrounding are little known. Also, Sokobanja has a long history of thermal waters ‘use throughout its rich history, from the Antiquity throughout the middle ages and Turkish rule. This is also present in towns of Bela Palanka and Svrljig in South-East Serbian region surrounding Nis. These resources can be used for supplying the cities and villages with heat in the future. More importantly, communities in local towns in the region can be supported by more proficient use of geothermal potentials, as this idea supports the alleviated concentration of inhabitants in the region. It supports local renewable energy sources and a greater ration between potentials and actual use of geothermal sources, which tends to be very low in Serbian cities and rural places. In this paper, these resources are going to be presented, for the community in Serbia to have an insight and to be reminded of its potentials and significance for regional development and local resource utilization. Built heritage and urban-architectural wholes in some of these towns and in the villages, are neglected and geothermal resources in their vicinity underused. A more organized use of geothermal potentials can lead to their regenerations. It can support the idea of a more balanced rural-urban development of the region of Nis. However, geothermal energy can also be beneficial for future regional energy planning and cooperation between towns and villages in South-Eastern Serbian regions like Nis region. And this can be an important strategy in regional planning and energy planning for the future, once the economic crisis would stop to prevail in Serbia. The authors of this paper point out to the long-term planning opportunity of Nis region, once geothermal energy is made more accessible and the constraints, being mostly of financial nature, however of societal nature, are minimized. The problem of the equilibrium between the city and its surrounding rural places can be made through the local resource´s utilization, such as geothermal, where this can be applicable or in combination with other renewable sources available at the locale (solar, biomass etc.). It is of great importance that the regions in Serbia cooperate in terms of geothermal energy planning. Various studies in Vojvodina are beneficial for Nis region. On the example of Reykjavik in Iceland, one can draw lessons on urban sprawl that has been influenced by the abundance of energy despite the clean energy utilization. Nis as a city is characterized by urban sprawling and environmental burden created by fossil fuel use and this can be further mitigated by utilizing geothermal and more importantly, strategic rural-urban planning with the existing geothermal resources. A change for the individual user still must make a “break-through” for renewable energy to “pay off”. In terms of geothermal application in rural places, there is a question of densities of the end users, that still should be tackled as a problem in the future of urban planning for the Nis region. As recommendations of this paper, a new initiative for achieving long-term planning goals is suggested, involving more profound geothermal energy utilization in the region of Nis as one of the possible generators for sustaining the urban-rural development of the region in the long run. Next thing to do would be to do long-term research involving multidisciplinary teams and to come closer to developing maps of geothermal potentials and their connection to urban and spatial planning of the region in the future. This is important for achieving a contra-weight to the existing inert energy situation and to the common global city strategy in planning cities such as Nis.
In the scientific literature, domestic and international, theoretical definition and classification of natural disasters is a very topical issue. Necessity and motivation of authors to establish a concise definition, stems from the need for clear demarcation of a disaster than anything else, and the first since it averages concepts such as risk, crises and risks. Of course, the interest from the definition arises from the need to describe the field of study and create the conditions for the accumulation of knowledge and theory building. At the same time, researchers in the field of disaster studies, meet with discussions and debates about the demarcation of the conceptual definition of disaster. The research results show that the theoretical definition of natural disasters followed: the social environment within which it was created, a discipline that originated from, purpose, geographical region of origin, etc. When looking at their formation, it is noticed that the first definition given by linguists and that they are largely held specific cultures and languages within which they were made. Over time they have evolved from multilateral changing the world. Many of them, although at first sight contradictory, produced in the same categorical domains. Based on different theoretical and empirical grounds. Also, is not the same as the definition of disaster phenomena or areas of study. Researchers often fall into the trap that the conceptual basis of phenomena such as disaster, replaced explanations as to what does and how society act in such situations. Due to the foregoing, when defining and classification of natural disasters, it is necessary to be very cautious and thorough. In particular, it is necessary to take into account to cover aspects of causes, characteristics and consequences of such a phenomenon. U naučnoj literaturi, domaćoj i svetskoj, teorijsko određenje i klasifikacija prirodnih katastrofa predstavlja veoma aktuelno pitanje. Neophodnost i motivisanost autora za uspostavljanje konciznih definicija proizilazi iz potrebe jasnog razgraničenja katastrofa od svega ostalog, a najpre od njemu srodnih koncepata kao što su opasnosti, krize i rizici. Svakako, interes od definisanja proizilazi iz potrebe da se opiše oblast proučavanja i stvore uslovi za akumulaciju znanja i izgradnju teorija. Pri tome, istraživači iz oblasti studija katastrofa, susreću se i sa diskusijama i debatama oko razgraničenja pojmovnog određenja katastrofa od vanrednih situacija. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je teorijsko određenje prirodnih katastrofa pratilo: društveni ambijent u čijim okvirima je i nastalo, naučnu disciplinu iz koje je poteklo, svrhu, geografski region nastanka itd. Kada se posmatra njihov nastanak, primećuje se da su prve definicije date od strane lingvista i da su one u velikoj meri održavale specifičnosti kulture i jezika u sklopu koga su i nastale. Vremenom su evoluirale u skladu sa višestranim promenama u svetu. Veliki broj njih, iako na prvi pogled protivrečne, nastaju u okviru istog kategoričnog domena. Počivaju na različitim teorijskim i empirijskim osnovama. Takođe, nije isto definisanje katastrofe kao fenomena ili oblasti proučavanja. Istraživači često upadaju u zamku da konceptualne osnove fenomena kao što je katastrofa, zamenjuju objašnjenjima šta čini i kako društvo deluje u takvim situacijama. Predmet rada predstavlja teorijsko određenje i klasifikacija prirodnih katastrofa, sa posebnim osvrtom na njene posledice.
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