Decision Models

In this paper we develop a framework for the study of financial equilibrium in the case of sectors in the economy, each of which is faced with two objectives/criteria in his portfolio selection decision making. In particular, we first present the bicriteria decision model of an individual financial sector, who seeks an optimal portfolio composition, given that the wishes to

Discusses work completed at Cardinal River Coals in Canada to improve the existing oil analysis condition monitoring program being undertaken for wheel motors. Oil analysis results from a fleet of 55 haul truck wheel motors were analyzed along with their respective failures and repairs over a nine‐year period. Detailed data cleaning procedures were applied to prepare data for modeling. In addition, definitions of failure and suspension were clarified depending on equipment condition at replacement. Using the proportional hazards model approach, the key condition variables relating to failures were found from among the 19 elements monitored, plus sediment and viscosity. Those key variables were then incorporated into a decision model that provided an unambiguous and optimal recommendation on whether to continue operating a wheel motor or to remove it for overhaul on the basis of data obtained from an oil sample. Wheel motor failure implied extensive planetary gear or sun gear damage ...

The aim of this work is to present the structure and the application of a decision support system (DSS) designed to help decision makers of a municipality in the development of incineration, disposal, treatment and recycling integrated programs. Specifically, within a MSW management system, several treatment plants and facilities can generally be found: separators, plants for production of refuse derived fuel (RDF), incinerators with energy recovery, plants for treatment of organic material, and sanitary landfills. The main goal of the DSS is to plan the MSW management, defining the refuse flows that have to be sent to recycling or to different treatment or disposal plants, and suggesting the optimal number, the kinds, and the localization of the plants that have to be active. The DSS is based on a decision model that requires the solution of a constrained non-linear optimization problem, where some decision variables are binary and other ones are continuous. The objective function ...

Enterprises in today’s networked economy face numerous information management challenges, both from a process management perspective as well as a decision support perspective. While there have been significant relevant advances in the areas of business process management as well as decision sciences, several open research issues exist. In this paper, we highlight the following key challenges. First, current process modeling and management techniques lack in providing a seamless integration of decision models and tools in existing business processes, which is critical to achieve organizational objectives. Second, given the dynamic nature of business processes in networked enterprises, process management approaches that enable organizations to react to business process changes in an agile manner are required. Third, current state-of-the-art decision model management techniques are not particularly amenable to distributed settings in networked enterprises, which limits the sharing and reuse of models in different contexts, including their utility within managing business processes. In this paper, we present a framework for decision-enabled dynamic process management that addresses these challenges. The framework builds on computational formalisms, including the structured modeling paradigm for representing decision models, and hierarchical task networks from the artificial intelligence (AI) planning area for process modeling. Within the framework, interleaved process planning (modeling), execution and monitoring for dynamic process management throughout the process lifecycle is proposed. A service-oriented architecture combined with advances from the semantic Web field for model management support within business processes is proposed.

This study examined the impact of the adoption of international accounting standards on the management performance of businesses listed on the Budapest Stock Exchange in Hungary. The financial data are taken from accounts published on the Budapest Stock Exchange and in the Hungarian Business Information database. The adoption decision model tested if the demand from internal performance evaluations is a factor in businesses decisions to adopt international accounting standards during the global financial crisis situations. The results show that those businesses which have adopted international standards achieved higher and statistically significant positive coefficients than those following local accounting rules. We found that larger firms (those with more leverage, higher market capitalization and substantial foreign sales) were more likely to have adopted international accounting standards. This suggests that the increase in the sensitivity of turnover to accounting performance p...

A spatial decision support system (SDSS) based on multi-criteria and multi-objective decision analysis is applied in a case study in Ethiopia to reduce soil erosion on the basis of reallocation of crops according to their capacity to protect the soil. The case study is carried out in the Adwa district. The SDSS has been implemented using the widespread GIS software IDRISI 32 (release 2) and with the direct involvement of local stakeholders in defining factors and constraints. These are based on land cover-land use, altitude, potential erosion, proximity to roads, water and the relative soil protective capacity of each crop species. A reduction of soil loss from an average of 4.5 t ha−1 yr−1 to values below the risk threshold of soil degradation (1 t ha−1 yr−1) would be achieved through the application of the SDSS results. The biggest impediment to the reallocation exercise, however, is the shortage of cultivable land suitable for cultivation.

Procrastination is increasingly becoming a topic of interest across multiple fields, from finance (as people put off dealing with their money troubles) to health (as people delay seeing their doctors). Still, there is debate about what exactly procrastination is and how it should be operationalized. The fields of neuroscience and behavioral economics point to procrastination as an irrational delay, where we put off despite being worse off. A competing tripartite model has divided procrastination into avoidance, arousal, and decisional. The validity of the avoidance, arousal and decisional model is reviewed here, first meta-analytically and then factor analytically, using a large sample exceeding 4000 respondents. The evidence does not support the tripartite model, particularly the avoidant and arousal distinction, instead indicating that procrastination is indeed an irrational delay. A new scale consistent with this conceptualization, the Pure Procrastination Scale, is derived from the factor analysis, showing improved correlations with key constructs, such as SWB. This new scale provides the field of procrastination with an improved measurement base, likely increasing the usefulness of our future findings.

Silayoi, P., & M. Speece. 2004.  Packaging and Purchase Decisions: A Focus Group Study on the Impact of Involvement Level and Time Pressure.  British Food Journal 106(8): 607-628.

The importance of packaging design as a vehicle for communication and branding is growing in competitive markets for packaged food products. This research utilized a focus group methodology to understand consumer behavior toward such products and how packaging elements can affect buying decisions. Visual package elements play a major role, representing the product for many consumers, especially in low involvement, and when they are rushed. Most focus group participants say they use label information, but they would like it if simplified. The challenge for researchers is to integrate packaging into an effective purchasing decision model, by understanding packaging elements as important marketing communications tools. Propositions for future research are proposed which will help in developing better understanding of consumer response to packaging elements.

Farmers must yearly allocate fields to different crops and choose crop management options. Far from being obvious, these decisions are critical because they modify farm productivity and profitability in the short and long run. To support farmers and efficiently allocate scarce resources, decision support models are developed. Decision support models are mainly based on two concepts, the cropping plan and the crop rotation decisions. These decisions concern crop choice, crop spatial distribution within the farmland and crop temporal successions over years. Decisions are at the core of the farm management. Decisions have strong impacts on resource use efficiency and on environmental processes at both farm and landscape scales. We review here more than 120 references where cropping plan and crop rotation decision concepts were incorporated into models. Our aim is to review how these two concepts have been formalised and used in agronomic, economic and land-use studies. We found that cropping plan decisions selection and design have been done using many approaches based on different objectives and handled at very different scales. The main results show that (1) cropping plan design decisions have mainly been tackled as a static concept, i.e. as if they were a single decision made only once a year or once a rotation; (2) modelling the achievement of a suitable cropping plan is often based on a single monetary criterion optimization procedure instead of a multi-criteria assessment; and (3) when considered, uncertainty of information is defined as stochastic factors or probability of occurrence, but this probability is kept static whatever the knowledge of the dynamic evolution of various constraints. We argue that cropping plan and crop rotation decisions are on the contrary dynamic processes incorporated into a succession of other planned and adaptive decisions made at annual and long-term horizons. For supporting farmers in their decisions, new cropping plan decision models will require new modelling paradigm. A promising improvement could be reached by including explicitly the simulation of the farmers' decision-making processes, based on the simulation of the decision-making processes rather than on single normative approaches.

I saggi di questo volume sono divisi in  tre parti. Nella prima si esamina il processo decisionale anche con riguardo agli obiettivi nella valutazione degli investimenti pubblici. Nella seconda vengono trattati i parametri nazionali: tasso sociale di sconto, salario e tasso di cambio ombra. Nella terza vengono affrontati i problemi metodologici del bilancio e della valutazione d'impatto ambientale.