Economic Cycle

This textbook of Economic Policy is made of four parts:
1. Methodological questions;
2. Welfare Economics;
3. Economic models in a closed economy
4. Economic Policy in an open economy.

La Politica Economica è la disciplina che studia il processo decisionale delle istituzioni economiche e finanziarie interne di un paese, come il mercato, lo Stato, la banca centrale, e i comportamenti aggregati degli operatori economici, come le famiglie e le imprese, con riferimento agli effetti delle politiche micro e macroeconomiche destinate a modificare l'andamento del sistema economico per raggiungere obiettivi prestabiliti.
Il corso di Politica Economica, previsto negli ordinamenti didattici delle lauree di primo livello in Economia, Scienze Politiche, Giurisprudenza, Statistica, Ingegneria, risponde all'obiettivo di dotare di una preparazione professionale, oltre che culturale, soggetti destinati a svolgere studi specialistici di economia, compiti di carattere direttivo o ad assumere posizioni di elevata responsabilità nelle istituzioni e nelle amministrazioni pubbliche e private, come pure in organismi imprenditoriali e associativi operanti in settori che implicano relazioni con organismi pubblici o richiedono competenze riguardanti atti e costi della regolamentazione.
Le lezioni contenute in questo volume indicano i filoni principali del pensiero teorico che ha seguito i successi e gli insuccessi dell’azione dei mercati e dei poteri pubblici sui sistemi economici. Il piano dell’esposizione è articolato in tre parti. Alle questioni metodologiche principali della ricerca economica e delle relazioni della politica economica con le altre discipline, segue, nella prima parte, la trattazione dell’economia del benessere, ovvero l'analisi di tipo normativo delle regole che orientano il sistema economico al suo miglioramento. La seconda parte è dedicata ai modelli principali con cui il pensiero economico ha affrontato i problemi posti dal perseguimento degli obiettivi macroeconomici in economia chiusa. La terza parte tratta gli stessi temi, ma nel contesto di un’economia aperta alla internazionalizzazione dei mercati in presenza dei vincoli posti dalla loro progressiva globalizzazione.

Indice generale

Premessa
Indice dei grafici
Indice delle tabelle
Acronimi
Piano delle lezioni

Lezione 1-Introduzione

Questioni di metodo

Lezione 2-I limiti dello studioso e la varianza comportamentale
Lezione 3- Errore e non prescrittività delle proposizioni di politica economica
Lezione 4-Analisi economica e principi di politica

Parte prima: l’economia del benessere

Lezione 5-Paradigmi e modelli di politica economica
Lezione 6-Le preferenze sociali
Lezione 7-Miglioramento e ottimo paretiani
Lezione 8-I limiti dell’economia del benessere paretiana e i tentativi di superarli
Lezione 9-La teoria delle votazioni
Lezione 10-Funzioni del benessere, ottimo sociale e teorie della giustizia
Lezione 11-Il mercato e lo Stato
Lezione 12-I due teoremi fondamentali dell’economia del benessere e quello del second best
Lezione 13-I limiti del mercato per gli obiettivi microeconomici
Lezione 14-Il teorema di Coase e le sue critiche
Lezione 15-I limiti del mercato per gli obiettivi macroeconomici

Parte seconda: i modelli di economia chiusa

Lezione 16-La neutralità della moneta
Lezione 17- La Grande Crisi e l’economia di Keynes
Lezione 18- La sintesi neoclassica
Lezione 19- La Nuova Macroeconomia Classica
Lezione 20- Le rifondazioni keynesiana e neoclassica e le relazioni tra disoccupazione e inflazione
Lezione 21- La programmazione economica
Lezione 22- I limiti dell’intervento pubblico
Lezione 23- Le politiche micro: obiettivi e strumenti
Lezione 24- Le politiche micro: alcune applicazioni
Lezione 25- L’analisi costi benefici: aspetti teprici
Lezione 26- L’analisi costi benefici: le fasi procedurali
Lezione 27-La moneta e l’economia monetaria
Lezione 28-La politica monetaria: obbiettivi e strumenti   
Lezione 29-La politica di bilancio: aspetti storici e teorici
Lezione 30-Le politiche del debito pubblico
Lezione 31-La politica dei redditi

Parte terza: la politica economica in economia aperta

Lezione 32-Le teorie del commercio internazionale
Lezione 33-Le politiche commerciali e le giustificazioni del protezionismo
Lezione 34-Bilancia dei pagamenti, regimi valutari e operazioni finanziarie
Lezione 35-Le politiche di riequilibrio della bilancia dei pagamenti
Lezione 36-Il modello di Mundell-Fleming
Lezione 37-Le politiche di mercato aperto

Bibliografia
Indice dei nomi

Le présent travail se fixe comme objectif d'étudier la réaction de la politique budgétaire au cycle économique pour le cas du Maroc. Il s'intéresse également d'une part, à examiner la symétrie de cette politique et d'autre part, à analyser sa réaction aux chocs d'offre et de demande. Pour ce faire, nous proposons d'étudier le comportement cyclique de la politique budgétaire à travers l'estimation d'une fonction de réaction budgétaire sur la période allant de 1970 à 2012 en s'appuyant sur la méthode GMM. Les résultats obtenus montrent que la politique budgétaire au Maroc est en moyenne procyclique. Autrement dit, les autorités budgétaires marocaines optent pour une politique budgétaire restrictive en période de récession et une politique expansive en période d'expansion. Ils indiquent aussi que cette réaction est plus marquée dans les phases d'expansion que dans les périodes de récession. De surcroit, ils soulignent que cette politique réagit d'une manière acyclique face aux chocs d'offre et de demande.

Article on the causes, dynamics of development and institutional forms of economic cycles. We study the institutional patterns associated with the formation, development and completion of economic cycles from the standpoint of an exogenous approach. The author proves the thesis about the relationship of formation of new institutions of economic behavior as a cause of the economic crisis and the formation of new institutions as the primary sign of transition to a new economic cycle. This article is an attempt to prove the relationship of economic and institutional cycling.
Статья о причинах, динамике развития и институциональных проявлениях экономических циклов. Исследуются институциональные закономерности, связанные с формированием, развитием и завершением экономических циклов с позиций экзогенного подхода. Автор обосновывает тезис о взаимосвязи формирования новых институций экономического поведения в качестве причины экономического кризиса и о формировании новых институтов в качестве основного признака перехода к новому экономическому циклу. В статье делается попытка доказать взаимосвязь экономической и институциональной цикличности.

The objective of this study is to identify the key drivers that explain labor informality in Colombia in the period from 2008 to 2017. A quantitative descriptive method was adopted to analyze data from the Great Integrated Household Survey (GEIH) conducted by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) as well as several important sources in the literature. Drivers were classified into cyclic and acyclic, depending on their behavior with respect to the general economic cycle. The analysis revealed that Bogotá, Medellín, Manizales, Pereira, and Cali present the lowest rates of informal employment in the country (between 40% and 50%). Additionally, the most outstanding conclusion is that there is a linear or direct relationship between the length of unemployment and informality: the longer individuals are unemployed, the more likely they are to join the informal sector.

In diesem von Wilhelm Lautenbach 1937 gehaltenen Vortrag wird im gesamtwirtschaftlichen Kontext die Entstehung der Höhe des sektoralen Unternehmenseinkommens veranschaulicht, dass die Höhe der Investitionen den Rahmen für (finanzielles) "Sparen" vorgibt und nicht umgekehrt, dass das Sparen der privaten Sektoren  keineswegs zinssenkend wirkt, die Liquidität der Kreditinstitute dadurch bilanztechnisch nicht erhöht wird. Lautenbachs Vortrag stellt Lehre aus der großen Depression dar und seine Erkenntnisse sind nach wie vor aktuell, ein Muss für an "echter" Volkswirtschaftslehre Interessierte.

The aim of the thesis is to describe and explain the issue dealing with the issue of output gap in the economy. The concepts that are closely related to this topic are explained. One of the concepts concerned is a potential product. The definitions that are most frequently mentioned in the expert texts are given. Further, the methods of calculating the potential product are described, namely the Cobb-Douglas production function or the Hodrick-Prescott filter. The second fundamental notion that appears in the title of the work is the output gap. The output gap in a broad sense can be understood as a potential economy (linking to the already-outlined potential product). This is the deviation of the product actually achieved from the potential product. The paper describes the links between the output gap in the economy and the inflation or the economic cycle.
Key words: potential product, output gap, potential economy, inflation, economic cycle

Cílem práce je popsat a vysvětlit problematiku zabývající se tématem produkční mezery v ekonomice. Vysvětleny jsou pojmy, které s tímto tématem úzce souvisí. Jedním z dotčených pojmů je potenciální produkt. Uvedeny jsou definice, které jsou nejčastěji uváděny v odborných textech. Dále jsou v práci popsány metody výpočtu potenciálního produktu, jedná se o Cobb-Douglasovu produkční funkci, nebo Hodrick-Prescottův filtr. Druhým zásadním pojmem, který se objevuje již v názvu práce, je produkční mezera. Produkční mezeru v širokém slova smyslu lze chápat jako potenciální ekonomiku (návaznost na již vysvětlený potenciální produkt). Jedná se o odchylku skutečně dosaženého produktu od produktu potenciálního. V práci jsou popsány souvislosti mezi produkční mezerou v ekonomice a inflací nebo hospodářským cyklem.
Klíčová slova: potenciální produkt, produkční mezera, potenciální ekonomika, inflace, hospodářský cyklus

Las crisis de balance de pagos son situaciones que afectan gravemente el funcionamiento de las economías en desarrollo. Sin embargo, al analizar la dinámica de la actividad real durante periodos de elevada presión cambiaria, no siempre se registran efectos reales significativos. Esta heterogeneidad permite distinguir entre dos tipos de episodios de naturaleza distinta: las crisis cambiarias recesivas y las no recesivas. Haciendo uso de índices de presión cambiaria con umbrales móviles para la detección de crisis, estimamos un modelo logit multinominal para veintinueve economías emergentes en el periodo 1960-2012 para estudiar sus determinantes. Allí se comprueba, en línea con la literatura sobre el tema, que mayores niveles de reservas internacionales, la usencia de alta inflación y bajas tasas de interés la FED reduce la probabilidad de crisis, más allá de sus efectos reales. Como aspecto novedoso,  sedemuestrael crecimiento de las exportacionesy la presencia de una política fiscal expansiva reducen la probabilidad deque las crisis cambiarias tengan efectos reales significativos. Al aplicar estos resultados al desarrollo de un modelo de alerta temprana, y teniendo en cuenta un nuevo criterio de clasificación que valorice el interés del hacedor de política, la capacidad predictiva del modelo mejora sustancialmente. El modelo especificado logra predecir un 70% de las crisis cambiarias recesivas.

The term liquidity is the prime characteristic of banks. As liquidity risk management is considered as the heart of confidence in the bank transactions, enabling customers keep their deposits simply according to their desire, banks always assess their liquidity or their ability to meet cash and collateral liability without incurring considerable losses. Henceforth, Liquidity risk is a perilous crisis which is harmful for the healthy environment of financial systems and detrimental to the face of economics. In the meantime, Tawarruq as an alternative element could viably overcome this insecure condition, playing a pivotal stance in maintaining proper liquidity. This paper tends to demonstrate the impact of Tawarruq (commodity murabaha) upon the anticipated growth of Islamic finance across the world on the account of liquidity risk management. Studies on the conduct of Islamic banks and institutions reveal the conclusion that strategies adopted in the aforesaid system has highly accentuated the growth of Islamic banking and is definitely a proper instrument in producing a well and constructive financial order, which is detailed vividly in the last part of the paper.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of the economic cycle on workplace accidents. In particular, the effect of some major factors of the economic cycle (unemployment, output per capita and unit labor cost) on fatal and non-fatal injuries is examined in six European countries (Finland, Italy, France, Switzerland, Austria and Germany). Correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis are applied, considering relevant data of the selected countries, over the period 1990-2005. The analysis indicates a counter-cyclical behavior of workplace accidents. Output per capita is the only parameter whose impact is statistically significant in all cases. The different effect of the examined factors on workplace accidents and the interrelations between these factors indicate that an economic model of the workplace is required, if the impact of the economic cycle on workplace accidents is to be studied thoroughly.

We wonder whether tax enforcement varies along the economic cycle and aim at answering that question from a positive perspective by means of survey data for the Spanish case (1994-2015). According to a fiscal capacity argument, tax enforcement might be stronger in times of crisis (counter-cyclical), but if the tax administration prioritizes taxpayers’ welfare over public revenue, enforcement might be slacker (pro-cyclical). We find tax enforcement is not immune to the state of the economy. In particular, it presents a prevailing counter-cyclical trend, but in presence of a severe economic crisis it turns out to be pro-cyclical.​

El presente trabajo analiza el impacto de la volatilidad del crecimiento del producto en las posibilidadesde largo plazo del mismo para Cuba durante el periodo 1900-2009. La determinacion dela relacion entre estas variables permitio valorar la pertinencia de colocar la estabilidad del crecimientodel producto en las actuales condiciones como una variable principal en la politica economicapara los proximos anos en Cuba. La medicion de la variabilidad del crecimiento serealizo a traves de la volatilidad ciclica como referencia de los movimientos de la tasa de crecimientocon respecto a la senda de crecimiento de largo plazo. Para la estimacion del componenteciclico del producto se utilizo una metodologia de extraccion de senales. Abstract This paper analyzes the impact of GDP growth volatility over its long-term possibilities to Cuba, during the period 1900-2009. The determination of the relationship between these variables allowed us to appreciate the relevance of placing the output gr...

This paper studies Mexican poverty levels by state during the 1992-2002 period, in order to evaluate the effect that the business cycle and governmental policies have had on poverty levels. We find that behind the business cycle and the urban poverty are inversely related and that institutional transfers reduce poverty both in urban and rural areas.// Este trabajo estudia los

The credit risk at banks became more relevant after the 2008 international financial crisis, which led, among others, to the publication of IFRS 9 in 2014. New rules were established for the process of measuring and accounting for expected credit losses, which had to present a prospective view, based on macroeconomic forecasts and a better understanding of the influence of economic or business cycles on credit risk. In this study, an econometric model of time series was developed, using data from a large brazilian bank to estimate credit losses conditioned to economic cycles in Brazil. The results indicated
that the best variables for this purpose are the national defaults, the total credit balance and the economic growth gap.

El período 1994-2001 correspondió al de un ciclo de la economía colombiana, especialmente intenso sobretodo en lo que se refiere a la magnitud de la depresión ocurrida entre 1998 y 2001. En el presente documento se describe la construcción y el uso de un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico para evaluar los efectos de un impacto que, presumiblemente, dio origen

The article is about the exogenous concept of institutional recurrence and institutional balance. The institutional cycle is considered as life cycle of socio-economic institutes, as the methodological basis of the institutional analysis for all kinds of economic cycles and processes. The author analyzes mutual conformity of formal and informal institutes at different stages of their cyclic development.
В статье представлена экзогенная концепция институциональной цикличности и институционального равновесия. Институциональный цикл рассматривается в качестве жизненного цикла социально-экономических институтов, как методологическое основание институционального анализа для всех видов экономических циклов и процессов. Автор анализирует взаимное соответствие формальных и неформальных институтов на разных стадиях их циклического развития.

The aim of the present paper is to analyze comparatively the main economic theories regarding the economic crises, including the premises for starting the present financial and economic vulnerabilities on national and international level. On ideological level, the present global financial and economic crisis, similar to the other ones throughout history, initiated an intellectual debate among several applicable theories: Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” liberal theory, Keynes’s state interventionism theory and even neo-Marxist theories. The issue of the economic cycle and the crisis is a very complex one that cannot be analyzed and explained in a few pages, because talking about the crisis and the economic cycle supposes an analysis of all aspects of the market economy. Thus, we try to found out which of these theories best explain the economic cycles and crises and we believe that the Great Depression of ‘29-‘33 confirmed to a great extent the “Austrian” theory of the economic cycle.

Este trabajo estudia los niveles mexicanos de pobreza por estado, durante el periodo 1992-2002, con el fin de evaluar el efecto que el ciclo económico y las políticas gubernamentales han tenido en ella. Encontramos que el ciclo economico y la pobreza urbana están inversamente relacionados y que las transferencias institucionales disminuyen la pobreza tanto en las áreas urbanas como en las rurales.

Este trabajo estudia los niveles mexicanos de pobreza por estado, durante el periodo 1992-2002, con el fin de evaluar el efecto que el ciclo económico y las políticas gubernamentales han tenido en ella. Encontramos que el ciclo economico y la pobreza urbana están inversamente relacionados y que las transferencias institucionales disminuyen la pobreza tanto en las áreas urbanas como en las rurales.