Probability Sampling

Probability Sampling is a sampling technique in which sample from a larger population are
chosen using a method based on the theory of probability. For a participant to be considered as a
probability sample, he/she must be selected using a random selection.

The most important requirement of probability sampling is that everyone in your population has
a known and an equal chance of getting selected. For example, if you have a population of 100
people every person would have odds of 1 in 100 for getting selected. Probability sampling gives
you the best chance to create a sample that is truly representative of the population.

Probability sampling uses statistical theory to select randomly, a small group of people (sample)
from an existing large population and then predict that all their responses together will match the
overall population.

Probability Sampling Example

Let us take an example to understand this sampling technique. The population of the US alone is
330 million, it is practically impossible to send a survey to every individual to gather information
but you can use probability sampling to get data which is as good even if it is collected from a
smaller population.

For example, consider hypothetically an organization has 500,000 employees sitting at different
geographic locations. The organization wishes to make certain amendment in its human resource
policy, but before they roll out the change they wish to know if the employees will be happy with
the change or not. However, it’s a tedious task to reach out to all 500,000 employees. This is
where probability sampling comes handy. A sample from the larger population i.e from 500,000
employees can be chosen. This sample will represent the population. A survey now can be
deployed to the sample.

From the responses received, management will now be able to know whether employees in that
organization are happy or not about the amendment.

Steps involved in Probability Sampling

1. Choose your population of interest carefully: Carefully think and choose from the population,
people you think whose opinions should be collected and then include them in the sample.
2. Determine a suitable sample frame: Your frame should include a sample from your population
of interest and no one from outside in order to collect accurate data.
3. Select your sample and start your survey: It can sometimes be challenging to find the right
sample and determine a suitable sample frame. Even if all factors are in your favor, there still
might be unforeseen issues like cost factor, quality of respondents and quickness to respond.
Getting a sample to respond to true probability survey might be difficult but not impossible.
 But, in most cases, drawing a probability sample will save you time, money, and a lot of
frustration. You probably can’t send surveys to everyone but you can always give everyone a
chance to participate, this is what probability sample is all about.

When to use Probability Sampling

1. When the sampling bias has to be reduced: This sampling method is used when the bias has to
be minimum. The selection of the sample largely determines the quality of the research’s
inference. How researchers select their sample largely determines the quality of a researcher’s
findings. Probability sampling leads to higher quality findings because it provides an unbiased
representation of the population.
2. When the population is usually diverse: When your population size is large and diverse this
sampling method is usually used extensively as probability sampling helps researchers create
samples that fully represent the population. Say we want to find out how many people prefer
medical tourism over getting treated in their own country, this sampling method will help pick
samples from various socio-economic strata, background etc to represent the bigger population.
3. To create an accurate sample: Probability sampling help researchers create an accurate sample
of their population. Researchers can use proven statistical methods to draw accurate sample size
to obtained well-defined data.

Advantages

1. Its Cost-effective: This process is both cost and time effective and a larger sample can also be
chosen based on numbers assigned to the samples and then choosing random numbers from the
bigger sample. Work here is done.
2. It is simple and easy: Probability sampling is an easy way of sampling as it does not involve a
complicated process. It is quick and saves time. The time saved can thus be used to analyze the
data and draw conclusions.
3. It is non-technical: This method of sampling doesn’t require any technical knowledge because
of the simplicity with which this can be done. This method doesn’t require complex knowledge
and it is not at all lengthy.
 Types of Probability Sampling: Simple Random Sampling, Systematic
Sampling, Stratified Random sampling, Area sampling, Cluster Sampling

Types of Probability Sampling

1. Simple Random Sample

Simple random sampling as the name suggests is a completely random method of selecting the sample.
This sampling method is as easy as assigning numbers to the individuals (sample) and then randomly
choosing from those numbers through an automated process. Finally, the numbers that are chosen are the
members that are included in the sample.

There are two ways in which the samples are chosen in this method of sampling: Lottery system and
using number generating software/ random number table. This sampling technique usually works around
large population and has its fair share of advantages and disadvantages.

Simple Random Sample Advantages

Ease of use represents the biggest advantage of simple random sampling. Unlike more complicated
sampling methods such as stratified random sampling and probability sampling, no need exists to divide
the population into sub-populations or take any other additional steps before selecting members of the
population at random.

A simple random sample is meant to be an unbiased representation of a group. It is considered a fair way
to select a sample from a larger population, since every member of the population has an equal chance of
getting selected.

Simple Random Sample Disadvantages

A sampling error can occur with a simple random sample if the sample does not end up accurately
reflecting the population it is supposed to represent. For example, in our simple random sample of 25
employees, it would be possible to draw 25 men even if the population consisted of 125 women and 125
men. For this reason, simple random sampling is more commonly used when the researcher knows little
about the population. If the researcher knew more, it would be better to use a different sampling
technique, such as stratified random sampling, which helps to account for the differences within the
population, such as age, race or gender. Other disadvantages include the fact that for sampling from large
populations, the process can be time consuming and costly compared to other methods.

2. Systematic Sample
Systematic Sampling is when you choose every “nth” individual to be a part of the sample. For example,
you can choose every 5th person to be in the sample. Systematic sampling is an extended implementation
of the same old probability technique in which each member of the group is selected at regular periods to
form a sample. There’s an equal opportunity for every member of a population to be selected using this
sampling technique.

Risks Associated With Systematic Sampling

 One risk that statisticians must consider when conducting systematic sampling involves how the list used
with the sampling interval is organized. If the population placed on the list is organized in a cyclical
pattern that matches the sampling interval, the selected sample may be biased. For example, a company’s
human resources department wants to pick a sample of employees and ask how they feel about company
policies. Employees are grouped in teams of 20, with each team headed by a manager. If the list used to
pick the sample size is organized with teams clustered together, the statistician risks picking only
managers (or no managers at all) depending on the sampling interval.

3. Stratified Random Sample

Stratified Random sampling involves a method where a larger population can be divided into smaller
groups that usually don’t overlap but represent the entire population together. While sampling these
groups can be organized and then draw a sample from each group separately.

A common method is to arrange or classify by sex, age, ethnicity and similar ways. Splitting subjects into
mutually exclusive groups and then using simple random sampling to choose members from groups.

Members in each of these groups should be distinct so that every member of all groups get equal
opportunity to be selected using simple probability. This sampling method is also called “random quota
sampling.

Advantages of Stratified Random Sampling

The main advantage of stratified random sampling is that it captures key population characteristics in the
sample. Similar to a weighted average, this method of sampling produces characteristics in the sample
that are proportional to the overall population. Stratified random sampling works well for populations
with a variety of attributes but is otherwise ineffective if subgroups cannot be formed.

Stratification gives a smaller error in estimation and greater precision than the simple random sampling
method. The greater the differences between the strata, the greater the gain in precision.

4. Area Sampling
Area sampling is a method of sampling used when no complete frame of reference is available. The total
area under investigation is divided into small sub-areas which are sampled at random or according to a
restricted process (stratification of sampling). Each of the chosen sub-areas is then fully inspected and
enumerated, and may form the basis for further sampling if desired.

Application of Area sampling

The basic idea of area sampling is both simple and powerful. It enjoys wide usage in situations where
very high quality data are wanted but for which no list of universe items exists. For instance, many
governmental agencies (e.g. Bureau of Labor Statistics) use area sampling.

However, the practical execution of a large scale area sample is highly complex. Typically an area
sampling is conducted in multiple stages, with successively smaller area clusters being sub-sampled at
each stage.

Example: A national sample of households is often constructed in a series of steps like this:

(i) Create geographic strata, each consisting of a group of counties in more or less close proximity. Fifty
or more such strata, containing all of the roughly 3,000 US counties, are commonly used.
 (ii) Within each geographic stratum, choose a probability sample of one or more counties (or groups of
counties such as metropolitan areas).

(iii) Within each sample county (or group of counties), choose a probability sample of places (cities,
towns, etc).

(iv) Within each sample place, select a probability sample of area segments (blocks in cities, area with
identifiable boundaries in other places, etc)

(v) Finally, within sample segments choose a probability sample of households.

5. Cluster Sampling
Cluster sampling is a way to randomly select participants when they are geographically spread out. For
example, if you wanted to choose 100 participants from the entire population of the U.S., it is likely
impossible to get a complete list of everyone. Instead, the researcher randomly selects areas (i.e. cities or
counties) and randomly selects from within those boundaries.

Cluster sampling usually analyzes a particular population in which the sample consists of more than a few
elements, for example, city, family, university etc. The clusters are then selected by dividing the greater
population into various smaller sections.

Cluster Sampling: Steps

Some steps and tips to use cluster sampling for market research, are:-

 Sample: Decide the target audience and also the size of the sample.
 Create and evaluate sampling frames: Create a sampling frame by using either an existing frame or
creating a new one for the target audience. Evaluate frames on the basis of coverage and clustering and
make adjustments accordingly. These groups will be varied considering the population which can be
exclusive and comprehensive. Members of a sample are selected individually.
 Determine groups: Determine the number of groups by including the same average members in each
group. Make sure each of these groups are distinct from one another.
 Select clusters: Choose clusters randomly for sampling.
 Geographic segmentation: Geographic segmentation is the most commonly used cluster sample.
 Sub-types: Cluster sampling is bifurcated into one-stage and multi-stage subtypes on the basis of the
number of steps followed by researchers to form clusters.

Cluster Sampling Methods with Examples

There are two ways to classify cluster sampling. The first way is based on the number of stages followed
to obtain the cluster sample and the second way is the representation of the groups in the entire cluster.

The first classification is the most used in cluster sampling. In most cases, sampling by clusters happens
over multiple stages. A stage is considered to be the steps taken to get to a desired sample and cluster
sampling is divided into single-stage, two-stage, and multiple stages.

(I) Single Stage Cluster Sampling: As the name suggests, sampling will be done just once. An example
of Single Stage Cluster Sampling –An NGO wants to create a sample of girls across 5 neighboring towns
to provide education. Using single-stage cluster sampling, the NGO can randomly select towns (clusters)
to form a sample and extend help to the girls deprived of education in those towns.
(II) Two-Stage Cluster Sampling: A sample created using two-stages is always better than a sample
created using a single stage because more filtered elements can be selected which can lead to improved
results from the sample. In two-stage cluster sampling, instead of selecting all the elements of a cluster,
only a handful of members are selected from each cluster by implementing systematic or simple random
sampling. An example of Two-Stage Cluster Sampling –A business owner is inclined towards exploring
the statistical performance of her plants which are spread across various parts of the U.S. Considering the
number of plants, number of employees per plant and work done from each plant, single-stage sampling
would be time and cost consuming. This is when she decides to conduct two-stage sampling. The owner
creates samples of employees belonging to different plants to form clusters and then divides it into the
size or operation status of the plant. A two-level cluster sampling was formed on which other clustering
techniques like simple random sampling were applied to proceed with the calculations.

(III) Multiple Stage Cluster Sampling: For effective research to be conducted across multiple
geographies, one needs to form complicated clusters that can be achieved only using multiple-stage
cluster sampling technique. Steps of listing and sampling will be used in this sampling method. An
example of Multiple Stage Cluster Sampling –Geographic cluster sampling is one of the most extensively
implemented cluster sampling technique. If an organization intends to conduct a survey to analyze the
performance of smartphones across Germany. They can divide the entire country’s population into cities
(clusters) and further select cities with the highest population and also filter those using mobile devices.

Cluster Sampling Advantages

There are multiple advantages of using cluster sampling, they are:-

(I) Consumes less time and cost: Sampling of geographically divided groups require less work, time and
cost. It’s a highly economical method to observe clusters instead of randomly doing it throughout a
particular region by allocating a limited number of resources to those selected clusters.

(II) Convenient access: Large samples can be chosen with this sampling technique and that’ll increase
accessibility to various clusters.

(III) Least loss in accuracy of data: Since there can be large samples in each cluster, loss of accuracy in
information per individual can be compensated.

(IV) Ease of implementation: Since cluster sampling facilitates information from various areas and
groups, it can be easily implemented in practical situations in comparison to other probability sampling
methods such as simple random sampling, systematic sampling, and stratified sampling or non-
probability sampling methods such as convenience sampling.

In comparison to simple random sampling, cluster sampling can be effective in deciding the
characteristics of a group such as population and it can also be implemented without having a sampling
frame for all the elements for the entire population.