Chapter 3

Probability and Counting

Rules

McGraw-Hill, Bluman, 7th ed, Chapter 4

Chapter 3 Overview
Introduction
 3-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
 3-2 Addition Rules for Probability
 3-3 Multiplication Rules & Conditional
Probability
 3-4 Counting Rules
 3-5 Probability and Counting Rules
Bluman, Chapter 4
Chapter 3 Objectives
1. Determine sample spaces and find the
probability of an event, using classical
probability or empirical probability.
2. Find the probability of compound events,
using the addition rules.
3. Find the probability of compound events,
using the multiplication rules.
4. Find the conditional probability of an event.

Bluman, Chapter 4
Chapter 3 Objectives
5. Find total number of outcomes in a sequence of
events, using the fundamental counting rule.
6. Find the number of ways that r objects can be
selected from n objects, using the permutation
rule.
7. Find the number of ways for r objects selected
from n objects without regard to order, using the
combination rule.
8. Find the probability of an event, using the
counting rules.
Bluman, Chapter 4
Probability
Probability can be defined as the
chance of an event occurring. Some
examples of how probability is used
everyday would be weather
forecasting, “75% chance of rain” or
for setting insurance rates.

Bluman, Chapter 4
3-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
 A probability experiment is a chance
process that leads to well-defined results
called outcomes.
 An outcome is the result of a single trial
of a probability experiment.
 A sample space is the set of all possible
outcomes of a probability experiment.
 An event consists of outcomes.
Bluman, Chapter 4
Sample Spaces

Experiment Sample Space

Toss a coin Head, Tail
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Answer a true/false True, False
question
Toss two coins HH, HT, TH, TT

Bluman, Chapter 4
Example1: Rolling Dice
Find the sample space for rolling two dice.

Bluman, Chapter 4 8
Example 2: Gender of Children
Find the sample space for the gender of the
children if a family has three children. Use B for
boy and G for girl.

BBB BBG BGB BGG GBB GBG GGB GGG

Bluman, Chapter 4 9
Example 3: Gender of Children
Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for
the gender of three children in a family.
B BBB
B
G BBG
B
B BGB
G
G BGG
B GBB
B
G GBG
G
B GGB
G
G GGG
Bluman, Chapter 4 10
Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations of
probability:

Classical probability

Empirical probability

Subjective probability

Bluman, Chapter 4
Sample Spaces and Probability
Classical probability uses sample spaces
to determine the numerical probability that
an event will happen and assumes that all
outcomes in the sample space are equally
likely to occur.

nE # of desired outcomes

PE  
n  S  Total # of possible outcomes

Bluman, Chapter 4
Example 4: Gender of Children
If a family has three children, find the probability
that two of the three children are girls.

Sample Space:
BBB BBG BGB BGG GBB GBG GGB GGG

Three outcomes (BGG, GBG, GGB) have two

girls.

The probability of having two of three children

being girls is 3/8.
Bluman, Chapter 4 13
Exercise 5: Rolling Dice
If two dice are rolled one time, find the probability
of getting a sum of 7 or 11.

62 2
P  sum of 7 or 11  
36 9
Bluman, Chapter 4 14
Sample Spaces and Probability
The complement of an event E ,
denoted by E , is the set of outcomes
in the sample space that are not
included in the outcomes of event E.
P E = 1- P E

Bluman, Chapter 4
Example 6: Finding Complements
Find the complement of each event.

Event Complement of the Event

Rolling a die and getting a 4 Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6

Selecting a letter of the alphabet Getting a consonant

and getting a vowel

Selecting a month and getting a Getting February, March, April, May,

month that begins with a J August, September, October,
November, or December

Selecting a day of the week and Getting Saturday or Sunday

getting a weekday

Bluman, Chapter 4 16
Example 7: Residence of People
If the probability that a person lives in an
1
industrialized country of the world is 5 , find the
probability that a person does not live in an
industrialized country.
P Not living in industrialized country 
= 1  P  living in industrialized country 
1 4
 1 
5 5

Bluman, Chapter 4 17
Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations of
probability:

Classical probability

Empirical probability

Subjective probability

Bluman, Chapter 4
Sample Spaces and Probability
Empirical probability relies on actual
experience to determine the likelihood of
outcomes.

f frequency of desired class

PE  
n Sum of all frequencies

Bluman, Chapter 4
Example 8: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22
had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had
type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and
find the following probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.
Type Frequency
f
A 22 P O 
B 5 n
AB 2 21

O 21 50
Total 50
Bluman, Chapter 4 20
Example 9: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22
had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had
type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and
find the following probabilities.
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
Type Frequency
22 5
A 22 P  A or B   
B 5 50 50
27
AB 2 
O 21 50
Total 50
Bluman, Chapter 4 21
Example 10: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22
had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had
type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and
find the following probabilities.
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
Type Frequency
P  neither A nor O 
A 22
5 2
B 5  
AB 2 50 50
7
O 21 
Total 50 50
Bluman, Chapter 4 22
Example 11: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22
had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had
type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and
find the following probabilities.
d. A person does not have type AB blood.
Type Frequency
A 22 P  not AB 
B 5  1  P  AB 
AB 2
2 48 24
O 21  1  
50 50 25
Total 50
Bluman, Chapter 4 23
Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations of
probability:

Classical probability

Empirical probability

Subjective probability

Bluman, Chapter 4
Sample Spaces and Probability
Subjective probability uses a probability
value based on an educated guess or
estimate, employing opinions and inexact
information.

Examples: weather forecasting, predicting

outcomes of sporting events

Bluman, Chapter 4
3.2 Addition Rules for Probability
 Two events are mutually exclusive
events if they cannot occur at the same
time (i.e., they have no outcomes in
common)
Addition Rules
P  A or B   P  A   P  B  Mutually Exclusive
P  A or B   P  A   P  B   P  A and B  Not M. E.

Bluman, Chapter 4
Example 12: Rolling a Dice
Determine which events are mutually exclusive
and which are not, when a single dice is rolled.
a. Getting an odd number and getting an even number

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Getting an even number: 2, 4, or 6

Mutually Exclusive

Bluman, Chapter 4 27
Example 13: Rolling a Dice
Determine which events are mutually exclusive
and which are not, when a single dice is rolled.
b. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number

Getting a 3: 3
Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Not Mutually Exclusive

Bluman, Chapter 4 28
Example 14: Rolling a Dice
Determine which events are mutually exclusive
and which are not, when a single dice is rolled.
c. Getting an odd number and getting a number less
than 4

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3

Not Mutually Exclusive

Bluman, Chapter 4 29
Example15: Rolling a Dice
Determine which events are mutually exclusive
and which are not, when a single dice is rolled.
d. Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number
less than 4

Getting a number greater than 4: 5 or 6

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3

Mutually Exclusive

Bluman, Chapter 4 30
Example 16: Political Affiliation
At a political rally, there are 20 Republicans, 13
Democrats, and 6 Independents. If a person is
selected at random, find the probability that he or
she is either a Democrat or Republicans.

Mutually Exclusive Events

P  Democrat or Republican 
 P  Democrat   P  Republican 
13 20 33 11
   
39 39 39 13
Bluman, Chapter 4 31
 Example 17: Medical Staff
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5
physicians; 7 nurses and 3 physicians are females.
If a staff person is selected, find the probability that
the subject is a nurse or a male.
Staff Females Males Total
Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13
P  Nurse or Male   P  Nurse   P  Male   P  Male Nurse 
8 3 1 10
   
13 13 13 13
Bluman, Chapter 4 32
3.3 Multiplication Rules
Two events A and B are independent
events if the fact that A occurs does not
affect the probability of B occurring.

Multiplication Rules
P  A and B   P  A   P  B  Independent
P  A and B   P  A   P  B A  Dependent

Bluman, Chapter 4
Example 18: Tossing a Coin
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the
probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on
the die.
Independent Events
P  Head and 4   P  Head   P  4 
1 1 1
  
2 6 12

This problem could be solved using sample space.

H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6

Bluman, Chapter 4 34
Example 19: Selecting a Colored Ball
A jar contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls and 5 white
balls. A ball is selected and its color noted. Then it
is replaced. A second ball is selected and its color
noted. Find the probability of each of these.
a) Selecting 2 blue balls

Independents Events

P(blue and blue)  P (blue)  P (blue)

Bluman, Chapter 4 35
b) Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball

P(blue and white)  P (blue)  P ( white)

c) Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball

P(red and blue)  P ( red )  P (blue)

Bluman, Chapter 4 36
Example 20: Selecting a Colored Ball
without replacement
A jar contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls and 5 white
balls. A ball is selected and its color noted, without
replacement. A second ball is selected and its
color noted. Find the probability of each of these.
a) Selecting 2 blue balls
Dependents Events

P(blue1 and blue2) = P(blue1).P(blue2|blue1)

Bluman, Chapter 4 37
b) Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball

P(blue and white)= P(blue).P(white|blue)

c) Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball

P(red and blue) )= P(red).P(blue|red)

Bluman, Chapter 4 38
Example 20: University Crime
At a university in Malaysia, there were 5 burglaries
reported in 2003, 16 in 2004, and 32 in 2005. If a
researcher wishes to select at random two
burglaries to further investigate, find the probability
that both will have occurred in 2004.

Dependent Events
P  C1 and C2   P  C1   P  C2 C1 
16 15 60
  
53 52 689

Bluman, Chapter 4 39
3.3 Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is the probability
that the second event B occurs given that
the first event A has occurred.

Conditional Probability
P  A and B 
P  B A 
P  A

Bluman, Chapter 4
Example 21: Parking Tickets
The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking zone
and gets a parking ticket is 0.06, and the probability
that Sam cannot find a legal parking space and has
to park in the no-parking zone is 0.20. On Tuesday,
Sam arrives at school and has to park in a no-
parking zone. Find the probability that he will get a
parking ticket.

N= parking in a no-parking zone, T= getting a ticket

P  N and T 
P T N 
P  N

Bluman, Chapter 4 41
Example 22: Women in the Military
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought
women in the armed forces should be permitted to
participate in combat. The results of the survey are
shown.

Bluman, Chapter 4 42
a. Find the probability that the respondent answered
yes (Y), given that the respondent was a female (F).

8
P  F and Y  100
 
8 4
P YF    
P  F 50 50 25
100

Bluman, Chapter 4 43
b. Find the probability that the respondent was a male
(M), given that the respondent answered no (N).

18
P  N and M 
 
18 3
P MN   100  
P  N 60 60 10
100

Bluman, Chapter 4 44
Example 23: Tossing Coins
A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability of getting
at least 1 tail.

P( E )  1  P( E )
P (at least 1 tail) = 1 – P (all heads)
1 1 1 1
P (all heads)  . . 
2 2 2 8
Hence,
1 7
P (at least 1 tail)  1  
8 8
Bluman, Chapter 4 45
Example 23: Tossing Coins
A coin is tossed 3 times

H HHH
H
T HHT
H
H HTH
T
T HTT
H THH
H
T THT
T
H TTH
T
T TTT
Bluman, Chapter 4 46
3.4 Counting Rules
The fundamental counting rule is also
called the multiplication of choices.
In a sequence of n events in which the
first one has k1 possibilities and the second
event has k2 and the third has k3, and so
forth, the total number of possibilities of the
sequence will be
k1 · k2 · k3 · · · kn

Bluman, Chapter 4
Example 24: Paint Colors
A paint manufacturer wishes to manufacture several
different paints. The categories include
Color: red, blue, white, black, green, brown, yellow
Type: latex, oil
Texture: flat, semigloss, high gloss
Use: outdoor, indoor
How many different kinds of paint can be made if you can
select one color, one type, one texture, and one use?

 # of
 
# of # of # of
colors types textures uses  
7  2  3  2
84 different kinds of paint
Bluman, Chapter 4 48
Counting Rules
 Factorialis the product of all the positive
numbers from 1 to a number.
n !  n  n  1 n  2   3  2 1
0!  1
 Permutation is an arrangement of
objects in a specific order. Order matters.
n!
n Pr   n  n  1 n  2   n  r  1
 n  r !
r items
Bluman, Chapter 4
Counting Rules
Combination is a grouping of objects.
Order does not matter.

n!
n Cr 
 n  r  !r !
Pr
 n

r!

Bluman, Chapter 4
Example 25: Business Locations
Suppose a business owner has a choice of 5 locations in
which to establish her business. She decides to rank
each location according to certain criteria, such as price
of the store and parking facilities. How many different
ways can she rank the 5 locations?

   
first second third fourth fifth
choice choice choice choice choice  
5  4  3  2  1
120 different ways to rank the locations

Using factorials, 5! = 120.

Using permutations, 5P5 = 120.
Bluman, Chapter 4 51
Example 26: Business Locations
Suppose the business owner in Example 25 wishes to
rank only the top 3 of the 5 locations. How many different
ways can she rank them?

 
first second third

choice choice choice 
5  4  3
60 different ways to rank the locations

Using permutations, 5P3 = 60.

Bluman, Chapter 4 52
Example 27: Television News Stories
A television news director wishes to use 3 news stories
on an evening show. One story will be the lead story, one
will be the second story, and the last will be a closing
story. If the director has a total of 8 stories to choose
from, how many possible ways can the program be set
up?

Since there is a lead, second, and closing story, we know

that order matters. We will use permutations.
8!
8 P3   336 or P  8  7  6  336
8 3
5! 3

Bluman, Chapter 4 53
Example 28: School Musical Plays
A school musical director can select 2 musical plays to
present next year. One will be presented in the fall, and
one will be presented in the spring. If she has 9 to pick
from, how many different possibilities are there?

Order matters, so we will use permutations.

9!
9 P2   72 or P  9  8  72
9 2
7! 2

Bluman, Chapter 4 54
Example 29: School Musicals
A newspaper editor has received 8 books to review. He
decides that he can use 3 reviews in his newspaper. How
many different ways can these 3 reviews be selected?

The placement in the newspaper is not mentioned, so

order does not matter. We will use combinations.
8!
8 C3   8!/  5!3!  56
5!3!

87 6 P
or 8C3   56 or 8C3   56
8 3

3  2 1 3!

Bluman, Chapter 4 55
Example 30: Committee Selection
In a club there are 7 women and 5 men. A committee of 3
women and 2 men is to be chosen. How many different
possibilities are there?

There are not separate roles listed for each committee

member, so order does not matter. We will use
combinations.
7! 5!
Women: 7C3   35, Men: 5C2   10
4!3! 3!2!

There are 35·10=350 different possibilities.

Bluman, Chapter 4 56