Serdar Guner

İran'ın İsrail'e saldırısı ve akabinde İsrail'in bu saldırıya karşı bir saldırıyla cevap vereceğini açıklaması Orta Doğu'da genişlemiş bir savaş ihtimalini arttırmıştır. Uluslararası sistemlerde, bir başka deyişle birbirleriyle etkileşimde bulunan devletlerde, denge istikrar getirir. İstikrarsızlık kimin kiminle bir diğerine zarar vereceğinin bilinmemesi, belirsizliği anlamlarına gelir. Bu

This paper explains Hamas attack on the kibbutz Kfar-Aza using William Dray's "how is it possible" approach and develops the approach along with game theoretical thinking. Finally, it evaluates the attack in the context of global politics. Explanations come in different varieties. Explanation-what approach implies that it is sufficient to describe the causal process of the attack. The causes of the attack can be

The aim of this article is to develop Kenneth N. Waltz’s conceptualization of system structures based on the distribution of capabilities to those described by two traits at system-level: the distribution of capabilities across states and states’ geographic positions with respect to each other, that is, the contiguity configuration. The development generates taxonomies of structures evaluated as mental pictures that guide, organize, and channel thoughts by identifying the ways system structures constrain international interactions. Mental pictures are argued to derive from a multiplicity of interrelated neurophysiological processes of the brain according to functionalism which is a monist doctrine of the philosophy of mind. Mental pictures establish structural constraints as products of an algorithm based on realism and system theory depicting a neo-Kantian view of how our minds impose order on sensory data.

The aim of this article is to develop Kenneth N. Waltz’s conceptualization of system structures based on the distribution of capabilities to those described by two traits at system-level: the distribution of capabilities across states and states’ geographic positions with respect to each other, that is, the contiguity configuration. The development generates taxonomies of structures evaluated as mental pictures that guide, organize, and channel thoughts by identifying the ways system structures constrain international interactions. Mental pictures are argued to derive from a multiplicity of interrelated neurophysiological processes of the brain according to functionalism which is a monist doctrine of the philosophy of mind. Mental pictures establish structural constraints as products of an algorithm based on realism and system theory depicting a neo-Kantian view of how our minds impose order on sensory data.

Interfaith dialogues are platforms to address the issues of common concern for different faiths and beliefs. In this article, we use game theory to draw attention to the tensions between representing one’s community and reaching out to the ‘other’ side in pursuit of a common goal. We investigate the role of uncertainty and trust in interfaith communications, especially in times of political conflict. We propose four dynamic game models of incomplete information classified into two categories. Through our model, we find that even if one participant would prefer a scenario where the other party is cooperative while she herself remains defiant for reputational purposes, as long as she values a mutual solution/cooperation to mutual defection/conflict, the interfaith interaction will be more likely to be successful. Our models also show that the parties will be more tolerant of a ‘defiant’ looking behaviour if they believe they are dealing with a partner who is sincere and not prone to p...

Spring 2017 Serdar Ş. Güner & Dilan E. Koç* The question of the Kurdish state and natural gas pipeline proposals are at the core of the power struggle among states key to Middle Eastern stability and global balance. The various friendship-hostility configurations between the US, Russia, Turkey, Syria, and Iran are analyzed to present how changes in the direction of the conflict and cooperation disturb the regional balance of power in the Syrian conflict. Given the stable hostility between the US and Russia, and the stable friendship between Russia and Syria, the Turkish preferences for coveting friendship and leaning toward enmity are central in the formation of balances. Conditions for Russo-Turkish rapprochement and the possibility of an overall friendship between Russia, Turkey, and Syria are also discussed. Iran’s inclusion in the analysis reveals the possibility of a four-state front against the US. Furthermore, a competition or an agreement between the US and Russia over Kurdi...

We focus on a key IR Theory article by Alexander Wendt (1992) and two Jackson Pollock paintings. Our aim is to identify meanings Pollock’s art communicates and reveals for Wendt (1992). It derives from an appeal to visual imagination and a desire for semiotic interpretation of Constructivist view of anarchy. The visual sign is an association such that there is Wendt’s theoretical claim on the one hand and an abstract painting on the other. We do not gaze at Wendt’s claim, we read it. We do not read a painting, look at it. This remark does not imply a one-way relationship. We can argue that a specific painting comes to life in our mind where colored movements are inextricably mixed up when we read the constructivist claim. Both Pollock paintings selected for our sign-making effort confirm the dynamic character of Constructivism and reveal not only three but countlessly many anarchies in international relations. They foment our assessments of abrupt changes of intersubjectivity among ...

This article proposes a simple evolutionary game to analyze the stability of states’ balancing and bandwagoning behavior towards the sole superpower called the unipole. The trajectories leading to evolutionarily stable strategies (ESSs) demonstrate possible alignment paths given environmental constraints of unipolar systems and game rules. States are found to bandwagon with or balance against the unipole. They can also become divided adopting opposite alignment behaviors. The evolutionarily stable strategies imply alternative views of socialization and competition processes for structural realism, liberalism, and constructivism.

At the core of the power struggle among states key to Middle Eastern stability and global balance is the question of who controls whose natural gas flow via whose territories. The United States, Russia, Turkey, Syria, and Iran are analyzed in this context to present how changing alliances have disrupted the regional balance in the Syria conflict. Given the stable hostility between the United States and Russia as well as the steady friendship between Russia and Syria, Turkey’s alliances and enmities are central in the formation of balances. Competition or disagreement between the United States and Russia over Kurdish independence in Syria could lead to a protracted conflict for years to come in the Middle East.

Semiotics constitutes an untapped and interdisciplinary source of enrichment for the discipline of International Relations (IR) theory. We propose two visual metaphors to that effect to interpret the figure depicting the central claim of structural realism (SR) offered by late Kenneth Waltz who is one of the most disputed, read, and inspiring IR theorists. The figure is the tenor of both metaphors. The vehicles are two paintings by Mark Rothko, namely, “Green and Tangerine on Red” and the “Number 14.” The metaphors generate innumerable meanings for the tenor and eliminate the criticism that SR is a static and an ahistorical theory. Thus, they benefit the Discipline characterised by academic cleavages on the meaning of theory, science, and production of knowledge.

Interfaith dialogues are platforms to address the issues of common concern for different faiths and beliefs. In this article, we use game theory to draw attention to the tensions between representing one's community and reaching out to the 'other' side in pursuit of a common goal. We investigate the role of uncertainty and trust in interfaith communications, especially in times of political conflict. We propose four dynamic game models of incomplete information classified into two categories. Through our model, we find that even if one participant would prefer a scenario where the other party is cooperative while she herself remains defiant for reputational purposes, as long as she values a mutual solution/cooperation to mutual defection/conflict, the interfaith interaction will be more likely to be successful. Our models also show that the parties will be more tolerant of a 'defiant' looking behaviour if they believe they are dealing with a partner who is sincere and not prone to peer pressure, rather than one who cares more about his reputation than the communication itself. We demonstrate the findings of our models by using the case of the interfaith interactions during the Troubles Period in Northern Ireland.

Iran’s nuclear research program generates global suspicion and concern. We read news about the possibility of an Israeli or a U.S. attack upon Iranian nuclear facilities. The general idea is that if Iran continues its research, and, say, an Israeli attack occurs, Iran can retaliate. Thus, any potential attacker has to foresee the consequences of its action against Iran. Iran then has to assess the magnitude of costs that deter a potential attacker. Yet, the attacker can guess that Iran has strong incentives to misrepresent its incentives in its will and ability to retaliate. Iran can in turn try to guess whether the attacker takes its stand about retaliation seriously.

Abstract Game theory is a mathematical tool for analyzing interactive decision-making. Because international politics mostly involves interactive foreign-policy decisions, game theory is a particularly useful tool for constructing simple and formal models to explain and ...

We focus on a key IR Theory article by Alexander Wendt (Wendt, 1992) and two Jackson Pollock paintings. Our aim is to identify meanings Pollock's art communicates and reveals for Wendt (1992). It derives from an appeal to visual imagination and a desire for semiotic interpretation of Constructivist view of anarchy. The visual sign is an association such that there is Wendt's theoretical claim on the one hand and an abstract painting on the other. We do not gaze at Wendt's claim, we read it. We do not read a painting, look at it. This remark does not imply a one-way relationship. We can argue that a specific painting comes to life in our mind where colored movements are inextricably mixed up when we read the constructivist claim. Both Pollock paintings selected for our sign-making effort confirm the dynamic character of Constructivism and reveal not only three but countlessly many anarchies in international relations. They foment our assessments of abrupt changes of intersubjectivity among states. Cyclicality of dripped paints provides an anchor to fix Wendt's anarchy conceptualization in these structural-abstract paintings. As to Wendt's concept of anarchy, it acts as a helper, as a standard, against which interpretations of Pollock's artwork construct meanings. 1 This paper stands in the realm of semiotics intersecting the Discipline of IR theory. It interprets constructivist claims of Alexander Wendt (Wendt 1992) by using Convergence and Blue Poles, paintings by Jackson Pollock. New interpretations demonstrate the extent to which the study of signs, that is, semiotics (Chandler 2007; Danesi 2018; Nöth 1990), broadens our understanding of Constructivism. The paintings form signs according to the rule aliquid stat pro aliquo, that is, something stands for something else. They stand for Wendt's claims by constituting associative and inextricable wholes. Thus, they incorporate Wendt's claims of dynamic anarchy and the inseparability of states' interactions from social structures in terms of abstract art and contribute to the Discipline's "Interpretive Turn" (Yanow, Schwartz-Shea 2012) by revealing a multiplicity of meanings of the claims.

Various balance and imbalance conditions among the U.S., Russia, Turkey, Syria, and Iran are analyzed to present how changes in the direction of conflict and cooperation disturb the regional balance in the Syria conflict. We find that given a stable hostility between the U.S. and Russia, and the stable friendship between Russia and Syria, Turkish preferences over coveting friendship and leaning toward enmity are central in the formation of balances. Turkey-Syria relations constitute a key for the balance in the region. A main Russian foreign-policy problem thus remains to help Turkey and Syria to conduct friendlier relations. A competition or an agreement between the U.S. and Russia over Kurdish independence underlies TFP alignment choices and a high likelihood of a protracted conflict for years to come in the Middle East.

Semiotics constitutes an untapped and interdisciplinary source of enrichment for the discipline of International Relations (IR) theory. We propose two visual metaphors to that effect to interpret the figure depicting the central claim of structural realism (SR) offered by late Kenneth Waltz who is one of the most disputed, read, and inspiring IR theorists. The figure is the tenor of both metaphors. The vehicles are two paintings by Mark Rothko, namely, " Green and Tangerine on Red " and the " Number 14. " The metaphors generate innumerable meanings for the tenor and eliminate the criticism that SR is a static and an ahistorical theory. Thus, they benefit the Discipline characterised by academic cleavages on the meaning of theory, science, and production of knowledge.

The question of “who controls whose natural gas flow via whose territories?” is at the core of the power struggle among states key to Middle Eastern stability and global balance. The various balance and imbalance conditions among the U.S., Russia, Turkey, Syria, and Iran are analyzed to present how changes in the direction of conflict and cooperation disturb the regional balance in the Syria conflict. We find that given a stable hostility between the U.S. and Russia, and the stable friendship between Russia and Syria, Turkish preferences over coveting friendship and leaning toward enmity are central in the formation of balances. A competition or an agreement between the U.S. and Russia over Kurdish independence in Syria implies a protracted conflict for years to come in the Middle East.

This article proposes a simple evolutionary game to analyze the stability of states' balancing and bandwagoning behavior towards the sole superpower called the unipole. The trajectories leading to evolutionarily stable strategies (ESSs) demonstrate possible alignment paths given environmental constraints of unipolar systems and game rules. States are found to bandwagon with or balance against the unipole. They can also become divided adopting opposite alignment behaviors. The evolutionarily stable strategies imply alternative views of socialization and competition processes for structural realism, liberalism, and constructivism.

This article proposes a simple evolutionary game to analyze the stability of states' balancing and bandwagoning behavior towards the sole superpower called the unipole. The trajectories leading to evolutionarily stable strategies (ESSs) demonstrate possible alignment paths given environmental constraints of unipolar systems and game rules. States are found to bandwagon with or balance against the unipole. They can also become divided adopting opposite alignment behaviors. The evolutionarily stable strategies imply alternative views of socialization and competition processes for structural realism, liberalism, and constructivism.

Syria is the perfect example of a failed state occupying territory, subjected to the controversial ambitions of foreign powers. It has been transformed into a theater of shifting alliance positions among numerous actors including the US, Russia, and Turkey. The trajectories of pipelines transporting natural gas reserves from the Persian Gulf to world markets are at the heart of US-Russian interactions in Syria. The eventual formation of a Kurdish state covering northern Syria and Iraq is the prize as the pipelines traverse the new state’s territory. An independent Kurdish state also means the insertion of a new actor in the map of the Middle East, together with its prospects of being involved in territorial conflict with neighboring Turkey and perhaps with Iran as well. The enlargement of the Middle Eastern system with a new state creates fundamental changes in alliance possibilities and balances of power. Combined with energy and territorial issues, these possibilities would affect not only the region but the whole international system. Furthermore, the Syrian conflict evolves at such a pace that ally-enemy distinctions become blurred almost daily. While they are NATO allies, the US and Turkey disagree on the issue of helping Syrian Kurds militarily so that they can be of use in fighting against the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Russia and Turkey are now cooperating in contrast to the hostility experienced following the Turkish downing of a Russian fighter jet. And while the US and Russia oppose each other on the issue of world energy distribution, they harbor aligned interests with respect to helping and cooperating with Syrian Kurds, a move which alienates Turkey. These volatile conflict positions can confuse the most astute observers of the region.

During the Middle Bronze Age era, 3500 years ago, the kingdoms of the Near East formed and dissolved alliances, resisted threats, and tried to preserve their existence. This paper analyzes the balancing moves in the triangular system between the Egyptian, Hatti, and Mittani kingdoms, which were orbited by lesser kingdoms such as Babylonia, Assyria, and Alašiya. We find that the avoidance of two-front war prospects was a powerful motive for alliance formation. Bronze Age rulers had to solve the same problems as German strategists such as Von Moltke and Schlieffen prior to the First World War. For example, the Mittani ruler Saussatar, who established control in Upper-East Mesopotamia, clashed with Egypt under the rule of Thutmosis III in 1472 B.C. However, under Hittite threat, Saussatar's son Artatama then chose to align with Egypt to prevent a two-front war. Similarly, prior to the emergence of the bipolar Near Eastern Bronze Age system of Egypt-Hatti, Tušratta asked for Egyptian help against the Hittite Empire rather than asking for Hittite help to circumvent Egypt. Finally, the Kadeš treaty sealed the Hatti-Egypt brotherhood against rising Assyria and eliminated the possibility of a simultaneous fight against two enemies.

This article proposes three evolutionary games to study
secularization. The games assume that there is a severe
competition for a resource defined as the material wealth a
society produces. Successful strategies emerge out of the process,
become the authority, capture and allocate the resource.
Individuals who prefer a heavier or lighter weight of religion
within the organization of the polity respectively named as
religious and secular types can become wealthier and be
emulated in the population depending on their initial proportions
in the population. The society can evolve into a stable division of
secular and religious types or can evolve opposite directions
toward secularization. Impostors who misrepresent their religious
preferences can invade a population that is equally halved into
religious and secular types. No evolutionary stability is reached if
impostors make no mistake in misrepresenting their beliefs;
otherwise secular or religious strategies become evolutionarily
stable.

Unlike the previous contributions to this section on Models of International Negotiations this chapter deals with a concrete and as yet unsolved international conflict, namely, that between Greece and Turkey over the breadth of territorial waters in the Aegean Sea. Greece claims that it has the freedom to extend its territorial waters to 12 miles, whereas Turkey has indicated that a Greek extension of territorial waters constitutes a casus belli. Currently, both countries apply the six-mile limit; several crises have occurred over this issue in the past, but the status quo has remained unchanged.

This article presents four analyses of an interaction between the middle-Bronze Age Pharaoh Nibmuarea and the Babylonian king Kadashman-Enlil as described in the Amarna letters (Moran [1992] The Amarna Letters, The Johns Hopkins Universiy Press, Baltimore, Maryland). Intent on denying the Pharaoh his daughter in marriage, the Babylonian king was faced with the choice of sending messengers who could (''dignitaries'') or could not identify (''non-dignitaries'') his missing sister in the Pharaoh's court. Intent on marrying the king's daughter, the Pharaoh was faced with the choice of showing the sister or showing someone else. Based on the assumption of complete information (game 1), the analysis revealed a dominant-strategy equilibrium: Nibmuarea shows the sister and Kadashman-Enlil sends non-dignitaries. Based on the assumption of one-sided incomplete information (Pharaoh's misperception; game 2), the analysis revealed that the Pharaoh had a dominant strategy of showing the sister irrespective of whether the king is keen or reluctant to learn about his sister's fate. Based on the assumption of one-sided incomplete information (Kadashman-Enlil's misperception; game 3), the analysis revealed that if non-dignitaries are sent, the Pharaoh prefers showing someone other than his sister. Based on the assumption of two-sided incomplete information (game 4), the Pharaoh finds it more beneficial to present the sister irrespective of whether his intentions are genuine or feigned. With incomplete information, it is difficult to judge the other's intentions; the cost of being caught cheating by not showing the sister to knowledgeable messengers was quite high. These analyses highlight the strategic uncertainty that characterized this Bronze-Age interaction.

The issues of water and terrorism are often linked to each other in negotiations between Turkey and Syria, the upstream and the midstream riparians in the Euphrates River basin, respectively. This issue linkage and a deep rooted territorial conflict mark these countries' ...

The issues of water and territory dominate relations between Syria and Turkey, upstream and downstream riparians in the Euphrates and Tigris basin. This chapter propose an evolutionary game to explore eventual trajectories of riparian relations. Turkish hawks are defined as those Turkish foreign policies that support no water concessions. Turkish doves can instead support the flow of an increased amount of water to Syria on the basis of an international agreement. Syrian hawks are those Syrian foreign policies that do not recognize Turkish sovereignty over Hatay—also known as the Sandjak of Alexandretta. Syrian doves can in turn accept that the territory belongs now to Turkey. It is found that evolutionary stability does not depend upon the values territory and water represent for the fitness of Syrian and Turkish foreign policies. No evolutionary stability is possible unless doves are cooperative towards hawks. If doves are cooperative towards hawks, the unique evolutionarily stable outcome implies their extinction. Riparian relations will ultimately evolve into mutual intransigence.

Delimitation of the territorial waters and continental shelf in the Aegean Sea constitutes a constant source of conflict and produces recurrent crises between Greece and Turkey. This article explores directions that the Greek—Turkish dispute over the delimitation of territorial waters can take through an evolutionary game framework. Crises are found to follow routines and practices involving challenges to the status

Abstract This paper proposes a simple two-person game of one-sided incomplete information in extensive form to understand strategic choices made in the Turkish-Syrian linkage between water and terrorism. Turkish intelligence established Syrian support of a ...

The trigger of the Ukraine-Russia war is the enlargement of NATO which is essentially a Western exploitation of Russian weakness emanating of Soviet Union’s dissolution. Russia has communicated her reactions to the enlargement in peaceful terms until the prospect of Ukraine becoming a NATO member. The second wave of enlargement coming from the direction of neutral states such Finland and Sweden originates from Finnish and Swedish fears of being the next targets of Russian military campaigns. NATO enlargement to Ukraine has caused Russia-Ukraine war that in turn has caused some neutral states to leave their neutrality and become NATO members. Therefore, NATO expansion efforts has led to a further expansion through war. The exclusion of and warring with Russia only obliterates the opportunity of forming a large alliance to balance China, however. The West should understand that it is not wise to create incentives for the formation of a Sino-Russian alliance.