Sean Fox

Why do some of Africa's urban areas experience higher rates of protest incidence than others? Numerous authors have highlighted the role of urbanisation and democratisation in determining cross-national variation in the rates of urban protest. Yet understanding has been hindered by failures to measure mechanisms at the appropriate spatial scale, analyse a sufficiently representative sample of urban centres, de-confound local and country-level factors, and consider what it is about specific urban centres that shapes variation in protest incidence. This paper presents new evidence on the determinants of protests in African urban centres by linking georeferenced data on urban settlements from the Urban Centres Database to the location of protest events taken from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset. Fitting a series of multilevel regression models with cross-level effects, we simultaneously estimate variation in protest incidence as a function of local-and country-level factors and the interactions between them. Our results indicate that variation in protest incidence between urban centres can be explained by a combination of local-specific and country-level contextual factors including population size and growth, regime type, civil society capacity, and whether an urban centre is politically significant. These findings advance our understanding of how political and demographic factors interact and influence protest incidence in urban Africa.

The global urban population is expected to grow by 2.5 billion over the next three decades, and 90% of this growth will occur in African and Asian countries. Urban expansion in these regions is often characterised by ‘informal urbanization’ whereby households self-build without planning permission in contexts of ambiguous, insecure or disputed property rights. Despite the scale of informal urbanization, it has received little attention from scholars working in the domains of urban analytics and city science. Towards addressing this gap, we introduce TI-City, an urban growth model designed to predict the locations, legal status and socio-economic status of future residential developments in an African city. In a bottom-up approach, we use agent-based and cellular automata modelling techniques to predict the geospatial behaviour of key urban development actors, including households, real estate developers and government. We apply the model to the city-region of Accra, Ghana, drawing o...

Urbanization is transforming the human and political geography of Africa. While a growing body of research explores the urban dimensions of clientelism, contentious action, and social mobilization, there has been less attention given to the ways in which this demographic megatrend is influencing political change more broadly. We argue that the political implications of African urbanization are contingent on local conditions and experiences; there are no deterministic associations between urbanization and political change. To better understand the mechanisms linking urbanization to politics, we argue that a place-based approach is needed. We illustrate this by reviewing and highlighting how urbanization may affect (i) the nature and balance of citizen preferences; (ii) the composition, interests, and influence of elite actors; (iii) forms of political mobilization; (iv) shifting gender roles; (v) the role of civil society in political processes; and (vi) the likelihood and manifestat...

For the first time in human history more people now live and towns and cities than in rural areas. In the wealthier countries of the world, the transition from predominantly rural to urban habitation is more or less complete. But in many parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America, urban populations are expanding rapidly. Current UN projections indicate that virtually all population growth in the world over the next 30 years will be absorbed by towns and cities in developing countries. These simple demographic facts have profound implications for those concerned with understanding and addressing the pressing global development challenges of reducing poverty, promoting economic growth, improving human security and confronting environmental change. This revised and expanded second edition of Cities and Development explores the dynamic relationship between urbanism and development from a global perspective. The book surveys a wide range of topics, including: the historical origins of world urbanization; the role cities play in the process of economic development; the nature of urban poverty and the challenge of promoting sustainable livelihoods; the complexities of managing urban land, housing, infrastructure and urban services; and the spectres of endemic crime, conflict and violence in urban areas. This updated volume also contains two entirely new chapters: one that examines the links between urbanisation and environmental change, and a second that focuses on urban governance and politics. Adopting a multidisciplinary perspective, the book critically engages with debates in urban studies, geography and international development studies. Each chapter includes supplements in the form of case studies, chapter summaries, questions for discussion and suggested further readings. The book is targeted at upper-level undergraduate and graduate students interested in geography, urban studies and international development studies, as well as policy makers, urban planners and development practitioners.

We provide estimates of GDP growth in Greater Yangon between 1992 and 2013 by exploiting nightlights data. Subnational estimates were derived by calculating the elasticity of luminosity with respect to GDP for Myanmar as a whole using time series luminosity and GDP data and then converting observed luminosity values for Yangon in GDP by applying the national level elasticity estimates. The results suggest that Yangon’s GDP grew at an average annual rate of 4.45 percent between 1992 and 2013 and by 11.17 percent per annum during the reform period beginning in 2008. This method may be useful for monitoring urban economic growth in other low and middle income countries.

We are living through a global urban transition, but the timing of this transition has varied significantly across countries and regions. This geographic variation in timing matters, both theoretically and substantively. Yet contemporary debates on urbanism hinge primarily on questions of universalism versus particularism, at the expense of attention to how history and geography collide to shape urban processes. Specifically, they neglect the critical fact that urbanisation in many countries today is late within the context of the global urban transition. We argue that trajectories of contemporary urbanisation must be understood in relation to a suite of conditions unique to the late 20th and early 21st centuries and partly shaped by early urbanisation, including historically unprecedented demographic intensity, hyperglobalisation, centripetal state politics and the spectre of environmental catastrophe in the late Anthropocene. These factors condition the range of possibilities for ...

In this article I argue that urbanization should be understood as a global historical process driven primarily by population dynamics stimulated by technological and institutional change. In particular, disease control and expanded access to surplus energy supplies are necessary and sufficient conditions for urbanization to occur given historical evidence of an inherent human propensity to agglomerate. Economic development, which has traditionally been viewed as the primary driving force behind urbanization, can accelerate the process but is not a necessary condition for it to occur. Informed by this historically-grounded theory of urbanization, a range of qualitative and quantitative evidence is used to explain the stylized facts of sub-Saharan Africa's urban transition, namely the late onset of urbanization in Africa vis-à-vis other major world regions, the widely noted but inadequately explained phenomenon of 'urbanization without growth' observed in Africa in the 198...

Data deficits in developing countries impede evidence-based urban planning and policy, as well as fundamental research. We show that residential electricity consumption data can be used to partially address this challenge by serving as a proxy for relative living standards at the block or neighbourhood scale. We illustrate this potential by combining infrastructure and land use data from Open Street Map with georeferenced data from ~2 million residential electricity meters in the megacity of Karachi, Pakistan to map median electricity consumption at block level. Equivalent areal estimates of economic activity derived from high-resolution night lights data (VIIRS) are shown to be a poor predictor of intraurban variation in living standards by comparison. We argue that electricity data are an underutilised source of information that could be used to address empirical questions related to urban poverty and development at relatively high spatial and temporal resolution. Given near unive...

The measurement of urbanization and other key urban indicators depends on how urban areas are defined. The Degree of Urbanization (DEGURBA) has been recently adopted to support international statistical comparability, but its rigid criteria for classify areas as urban/non-urban based upon fixed population size and density criteria is controversial. Here we present an alternative approach to urban classification, using a flexible range of population density \& count thresholds. We then compare how these thresholds affect estimation of urbanization and urban settlement counts across three of the most popular gridded population datasets (GPD). Instead of introducing further uncertainties by matching GPD to built-up area datasets, we classify urban areas in a purely spatial demographic way. By calculating national urban shares and urban area counts, we highlight the often overlooked uncertainties when using GPD. We find that the choice of GPD is generally the dominant factor in altering...

In the previous two parts of this series, we discussed the history and current status of quantitative geography. In this final part, we focus on the future. We argue that quantitative geographers are most helpful when we can simplify difficult problems using our distinct domain expertise. To do this, we must clarify the theory underpinning core conceptual problems in quantitative geography. Then, we examine the social forces that are shaping the future of quantitative geography. We conclude with criteria for how quantitative geography might succeed in addressing these challenges.

Nigeria contains some of Africa’s oldest and newest cities, hosts five of the 30 largest urban settlements on the continent, and is estimated to have the biggest urban population on the continent. Yet many of the basic ‘facts’ about spatial-demographic trends in Nigeria have been contested. Most recently, an article published in World Development in 2012 claimed that urbanisation had stalled in Nigeria. In an effort to establish and explain the stylised facts of Nigeria’s urban transition we analyse demographic and spatial trends drawing on diverse sources, including censuses, household surveys, remotely sensed data and migration studies conducted over the past three decades. The evidence does not support the claim of stalled urbanisation: Nigeria’s urban population is growing rapidly in absolute terms and will continue to increase as a share of the national population because of both rural–urban migration and rural transformation. These drivers of urbanisation are a product of pers...

The stylized facts of Africa's urban transition highlight the limitations of traditional economic models of urbanization. Recent research has provided evidence that demographic rather than economic processes provide a more compelling explanation for observed trends in the region. In particular, mortality decline appears to be both a necessary and sufficient condition for urbanization to occur and a key driver of urban growth more broadly. The accumulation of survey data over the past few decades and the development of new geospatial datasets that incorporate satellite imagery are facilitating new, more spatially nuanced insights into the dynamics of urban population change in the region. This offers opportunity to develop better policies for managing urban change than those adopted in the past, which placed a misguided emphasis on manipulating migration incentives with little evidence of positive benefits.

Inspired by the work of Charles Tilly (1989), who highlighted the pivotal role that cities played in the historical genesis of the modern state in Europe, research undertaken in the Cities and Fragile States (CAFS) Programme of the Crisis States Research Centre (CSRC ...

The process of urbanisation has historically been associated with both socioeconomic development and social strain. Although there is little evidence that urbanisation per se increases the likelihood of conflict or violence in a country, in recent decades Africa has experienced exceptional rates of urban population growth in a context of economic stagnation and poor governance, producing conditions conducive to social unrest and violence. In order to improve urban security in the years ahead, the underlying risk factors must be addressed, including urban poverty, inequality, and fragile political institutions. This, in turn, requires improving urban governance in the region by strengthening the capacity of local government institutions, addressing the complex political dynamics that impede effective urban planning and management, and cultivating integrated development strategies that involve cooperation between various tiers and spheres of government and civil society.

Nigeria’s urban population has increased rapidly over the past 50 years and will continue to grow relatively fast in the coming decades, although how fast is a matter of some dispute. Nigeria’s urban population will nonetheless likely double within the next 30 years, possibly much sooner. The growth of Nigeria’s urban population in both absolute and relative terms has been accompanied by the expansion of existing built-up areas and the emergence of new and identifiably ‘urban’ settlements.

This report analyses urbanisation and urban expansion in Nigeria, portraying the dynamics and drivers of urban population growth and the spatial expansion process.

The report serves as a detailed ‘baseline’ report for the urban change processes theme of the Urbanisation Research Nigeria (URN) programme – and as a foundation for the later, targeted and more detailed research.

This thesis consists of a brief introduction, which situates the work within in the intellectual history of development theory, and three papers that address important gaps in our understanding about the dynamics of urbanisation and urban development in sub-Saharan Africa.

The first provides an interdisciplinary, historical perspective on the dynamics of urbanisation and urban growth in the region from the colonial era to the present day. I argue that these processes are fundamentally driven by mortality decline set in motion by improvements in disease control and food security. Viewed through this lens, the widely noted phenomena of ‘urbanisation without growth’ and very rapid urban population growth in the late 20thcentury are not as unusual as they have often been portrayed by development economists and policymakers.

The second addresses the question of why sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rate of slum incidence of any major world region. I argue that slums can be interpreted as a consequence of ‘disjointed modernization’ in which urban population growth outpaces economic and institutional development. I trace the origins of disjointed modernization in sub-Saharan Africa back to the colonial period and show that colonial era investments and institutions are reflected in contemporary variation in slum incidence. I argue that ‘status quo interests’ and the rise of an anti-urbanisation bias in development discourse have inhibited investment and reform in the post-colonial era.

The final paper presents and tests an empirical model designed to account for variation in urban protest activity across countries in the region. The model is comprised of basic demographic, political and economic factors that theoretically influence the motives, means and opportunities of potential protesters. The results of a panel data analysis are consistent with the core hypotheses, but several unexpected results emerge. More research is required to confirm these results, clarify mechanisms and account for broader trends in contentious collective action in the region.

In this paper the author argues that urbanisation should be understood as a global historical process driven primarily by population dynamics stimulated by technological and institutional change. In particular, disease control and expanded access to surplus energy supplies are necessary and sufficient conditions for urbanisation to occur given historical evidence of an inherent human propensity to agglomerate. Economic development, which has traditionally been viewed as the primary driving force behind urbanisation, can accelerate the process but is not a necessary condition for it to occur. Informed by this historically-grounded theory of urbanisation, a range of qualitative and quantitative evidence is used to explain the stylised facts of sub-Saharan Africa's urban transition, namely the late onset of urbanisation in Africa vis-a-vis other major world regions, the widely noted but inadequately explained phenomenon of 'urbanisation without growth' observed in Africa in the 1980s and 1990s, and the historically unprecedented rates of urban population growth seen in the region throughout the late twentieth century.

Over 800 million people in Africa, Asia and Latin America live in slum conditions, although there is wide variation in ‘slum incidence’ across countries. To account for the scale and diversity of the slum phenomenon, I test a ‘disjointed modernization’ theory using OLS regression analysis and find that 70% of contemporary variation in slum incidence is explained by demographic, economic and institutional factors.  Focussing on sub-Saharan Africa, divergent urban development trajectories are traced back to the colonial era and mechanisms of path dependency are identified—namely the emergence of status quo interests and the rise of an anti-urbanization bias in development discourse.