Sean Fox
University of Bristol, Geographical Sciences, Faculty Member
- State Building, Peace and Conflict Studies, Urban Economics, Institutional Economics, Population Dynamics, Urbanization, and 9 moreEconomic Geography, Development Economics, Conflict, Violence, Peacebuilding, Urban Studies, International Development, Urban And Regional Planning, and Political Economyedit
- I am a Associate Professor in Global Development at the University of Bristol. Prior to joining Bristol I was a Teach... moreI am a Associate Professor in Global Development at the University of Bristol. Prior to joining Bristol I was a Teaching Fellow and PhD student in the Department of International Development at the London School of Economics. I have worked as an adviser on urban poverty and development issues for UN-Habitat, CARE International, Oxfam GB and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. I earned a BA in Economics and a BA in Literature from the University of California Santa Cruz, and an MSc in Development Management from the LSE.edit
High-resolution global flood risk maps are increasingly used to inform disaster risk planning and response, particularly in lower income countries with limited data or capacity. However, current approaches do not adequately account for... more
High-resolution global flood risk maps are increasingly used to inform disaster risk planning and response, particularly in lower income countries with limited data or capacity. However, current approaches do not adequately account for spatial variation in social vulnerability, which is a key determinant of variation in outcomes for exposed populations. Here we integrate annual average exceedance probability estimates from a high-resolution fluvial flood model with gridded population and poverty data to create a global vulnerability-adjusted risk index for flooding (VARI Flood) at 90-meter resolution. The index provides estimates of relative risk within or between countries and changes how we understand the geography of risk by identifying ‘hotspots’ characterised by high population density and high levels of social vulnerability. This approach, which emphasises risks to human well-being, could be used as a complement to traditional population or asset-centred approaches.
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We examine Africa's emerging urban geography from a demographic perspective and discuss implications for development policy. We adopt an approach that defines urbanisation purely in spatial-demographic terms in recognition of the... more
We examine Africa's emerging urban geography from a demographic perspective and discuss implications for development policy. We adopt an approach that defines urbanisation purely in spatial-demographic terms in recognition of the decoupling of urbanization (as a spatial-demographic process) from economic development in Africa. Our analysis uses the most up-to-date gridded population data (WorldPop) to analyse diverse patterns of "urban" settlement emerging on the continent and to show that the crucial variable influencing urbanization estimates is population density. Our analysis confirms that increased population density and concentration are only weakly linked to income in Africa and argue that the profound spatial-demographic changes underway are driving implicit demand for "urban" development interventions, including changes in governance and planning practice. We conclude that a spatial-demographic approach to measuring and monitoring changing patterns of human settlements is both conceptually and empirically robust and suggest improvements to current UN statistical practice.
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Researchers, planners and policymakers in low-and middle-income countries often lack up-to-date and representative data about urban populations. Censuses are infrequent and expensive, while periodic surveys generally rely on sampling... more
Researchers, planners and policymakers in low-and middle-income countries often lack up-to-date and representative data about urban populations. Censuses are infrequent and expensive, while periodic surveys generally rely on sampling frames derived from censuses. In contexts of rapid population change, this can limit the quality and value of the data collected. Moreover, even well-executed survey exercises can result in systematic biases or exclusions of certain groups.
We examine Africa's emerging urban geography from a demographic perspective and discuss implications for development policy. We adopt an approach that defines urbanisation purely in spatial-demographic terms in recognition of the... more
We examine Africa's emerging urban geography from a demographic perspective and discuss implications for development policy. We adopt an approach that defines urbanisation purely in spatial-demographic terms in recognition of the decoupling of urbanization (as a spatial-demographic process) from economic development in Africa. Our analysis uses the most up-to-date gridded population data (WorldPop) to analyse diverse patterns of "urban" settlement emerging on the continent and to show that the crucial variable influencing urbanization estimates is population density. Our analysis confirms that increased population density and concentration are only weakly linked to income in Africa and argue that the profound spatial-demographic changes underway are driving implicit demand for "urban" development interventions, including changes in governance and planning practice. We conclude that a spatial-demographic approach to measuring and monitoring changing patterns of human settlements is both conceptually and empirically robust and suggest improvements to current UN statistical practice.
Urban data deficits in developing countries impede evidence-based planning and policy. Could energy data be used to overcome this challenge by serving as a local proxy for living standards or economic activity in large urban areas? To... more
Urban data deficits in developing countries impede evidence-based planning and policy. Could energy data be used to overcome this challenge by serving as a local proxy for living standards or economic activity in large urban areas? To answer this question, we examine the potential of georeferenced residential electricity meter data and night-time lights (NTL) data in the megacity of Karachi, Pakistan. First, we use nationally representative survey data to establish a strong association between electricity consumption and household living standards. Second, we compare gridded radiance values from NTL data with a unique dataset containing georeferenced median monthly electricity consumption values for over 2 million individual households in the city. Finally, we develop a model to explain intra-urban variation in radiance values using proxy measures of economic activity from Open Street Map. Overall, we find that NTL data are a poor proxy for living standards but do capture spatial variation in population density and economic activity. By contrast, electricity data are an excellent proxy for living standards and could be used more widely to inform policy and support poverty research in cities in low-and middle-income countries.
Urbanization is transforming the human and political geography of Africa. While a growing body of research explores the urban dimensions of clientelism, contentious action, and social mobilization, there has been less attention given to... more
Urbanization is transforming the human and political geography of Africa. While a growing body of research explores the urban dimensions of clientelism, contentious action, and social mobilization, there has been less attention given to the ways in which this demographic megatrend is influencing political change more broadly. We argue that the political implications of African urbanization are contingent on local conditions and experiences; there are no deterministic associations between urbanization and political change. To better understand the mechanisms linking urbanization to politics, we argue that a place-based approach is needed. We illustrate this by reviewing and highlighting how urbanization may affect (i) the nature and balance of citizen preferences; (ii) the composition, interests, and influence of elite actors; (iii) forms of political mobilization; (iv) shifting gender roles; (v) the role of civil society in political processes; and (vi) the likelihood and manifestations of contentious collective action. We conclude with a discussion of directions for further research.
High resolution poverty mapping supports evidence-based policy and research, yet about half of all countries lack the survey data needed to generate useful poverty maps. To overcome this challenge, new non-traditional data sources and... more
High resolution poverty mapping supports evidence-based policy and research, yet about half of all countries lack the survey data needed to generate useful poverty maps. To overcome this challenge, new non-traditional data sources and deep learning techniques are increasingly used to create small-area estimates of poverty in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) trained on satellite imagery are emerging as one of the most popular and effective approaches. However, the spatial resolution of poverty estimates has remained relatively coarse, particularly in rural areas. To address this problem, we use a transfer learning approach to train three CNN models and use them in an ensemble to predict chronic poverty at 1 km 2 scale in rural Sindh, Pakistan. The models are trained with spatially noisy georeferenced household survey containing poverty scores for 1.67 million anonymized households in Sindh Province and publicly available inputs, including daytime and nighttime satellite imagery and accessibility data. Results from both holdout and k-fold validation exercises show that the ensemble provides the most reliable spatial predictions in both arid and non-arid regions, outperforming previous studies in key accuracy metrics. A third validation exercise, which involved ground-truthing of predictions from the ensemble model with original survey data of 7000 households further confirms the relative accuracy of the ensemble model predictions. This inexpensive and scalable approach could be used to improve poverty targeting in Pakistan and other low-and middle-income countries.
Why do some of Africa's urban areas experience higher rates of protest incidence than others? Numerous authors have highlighted the role of urbanisation and democratisation in determining cross-national variation in the rates of urban... more
Why do some of Africa's urban areas experience higher rates of protest incidence than others? Numerous authors have highlighted the role of urbanisation and democratisation in determining cross-national variation in the rates of urban protest. Yet understanding has been hindered by failures to measure mechanisms at the appropriate spatial scale, analyse a sufficiently representative sample of urban centres, de-confound local and country-level factors, and consider what it is about specific urban centres that shapes variation in protest incidence. This paper presents new evidence on the determinants of protests in African urban centres by linking georeferenced data on urban settlements from the Urban Centres Database to the location of protest events taken from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset. Fitting a series of multilevel regression models with cross-level effects, we simultaneously estimate variation in protest incidence as a function of local-and country-level factors and the interactions between them. Our results indicate that variation in protest incidence between urban centres can be explained by a combination of local-specific and country-level contextual factors including population size and growth, regime type, civil society capacity, and whether an urban centre is politically significant. These findings advance our understanding of how political and demographic factors interact and influence protest incidence in urban Africa.
The city of Yangon is home to over 5 million people, hosts Myanmar's largest port and produces a disproportionate share of national output. But a mobility crisis is undermining the city's economic potential and contributing to a... more
The city of Yangon is home to over 5 million people, hosts Myanmar's largest port and produces a disproportionate share of national output. But a mobility crisis is undermining the city's economic potential and contributing to a deteriorating quality of life for its residents. The most obvious symptom of this crisis is acute traffic congestion. The proximate causes are clear: growing demand for journeys, a surge in vehicle numbers, a modal shift away from buses, and myriad 'flow disruptions'. However, solving this mobility crisis requires recognizing the underlying causes, including a 'congestion incentive spiral' fuelled by rapid liberalisation of vehicle imports in a context where there are few viable alternatives to buses and private automobiles. This situation is a direct consequence of systematic failures in urban planning, investment and regulation linked to active neglect from successive military regimes and dysfunctional institutional arrangements. To preserve its rich urban heritage, Yangon will need to embrace 21st century integrated planning practices that seek to maximise accessibility and mobility for all people rather than minimise traffic congestion for those who use cars.
The global urban population is expected to grow by 2.5 billion over the next three decades, and 90% of this growth will occur in African and Asian countries. Urban expansion in these regions is often characterised by 'informal... more
The global urban population is expected to grow by 2.5 billion over the next three decades, and 90% of this growth will occur in African and Asian countries. Urban expansion in these regions is often characterised by 'informal urbanization' whereby households self-build without planning permission in contexts of ambiguous, insecure or disputed property rights. Despite the scale of informal urbanization, it has received little attention from scholars working in the domains of urban analytics and city science. Towards addressing this gap, we introduce TI-City, an urban growth model designed to predict the locations, legal status and socioeconomic status of future residential developments in an African city. In a bottom-up approach, we use agent-based and cellular automata modelling techniques to predict the geospatial behaviour of key urban development actors, including households, real estate developers and government. We apply the model to the city-region of Accra, Ghana, drawing on local data collection, including a household survey, to parameterise the model. Using a multi-spatial-scale validation technique, we compare TI-City's ability to simulate historically observed built-up patterns with SLEUTH, a highly popular urban growth model. Results show that TI-City outperforms SLEUTH at each scale, suggesting the model could offer a valuable decision support tool in similar city contexts.
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An increasing number of cities around the world are engaging with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). How and why? We provide a critical reflection on SDG ‘localization’ derived from an action research project in the city of... more
An increasing number of cities around the world are engaging with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). How and why? We provide a critical reflection on SDG ‘localization’ derived from an action research project in the city of Bristol, UK. Through a research partnership with local government and non-governmental stakeholders we supported integration of the SDGs into local policy and urban monitoring efforts. Embedding the Goals in local policy making was largely a process of ‘translation’, which was achieved through a form of ‘embedded advocacy’ supported by a university-city partnership. We found that the Goals have local convening power, serve as a mechanism for building international city networks, and are instrumentalized by cities to signal global ambitions and progressive identities by embracing an internationally sanctioned policy agenda. New methods and frameworks for monitoring the SDGs are needed to fully realize the emerging ‘subnational turn’ in global policy.
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We are living through a global urban transition, but the timing of this transition has varied significantly across countries and regions. This geographic variation in timing matters, both theoretically and substantively. Yet contemporary... more
We are living through a global urban transition, but the timing of this transition has varied significantly across countries and regions. This geographic variation in timing matters, both theoretically and substantively. Yet contemporary debates on urbanism hinge primarily on questions of universalism versus particularism, at the expense of attention to how history and geography collide to shape urban processes. Specifically, they neglect the critical fact that urbanisation in many countries today is late within the context of the global urban transition. We argue that trajectories of contemporary urbanisation must be understood in relation to a suite of conditions unique to the late 20th and early 21st centuries and partly shaped by early urbanisation, including historically unprecedented demographic intensity, hyperglobalisation, centripetal state politics and the spectre of environmental catastrophe in the late Anthropocene. These factors condition the range of possibilities for late urbanisers in ways that did not apply to early urbanisers yet can also produce diverse outcomes depending on local circumstances. We draw on a comparison between countries in sub-Saharan Africa and China to illustrate why the conditions of late urbanisation matter, but also why they have produced highly variable outcomes and are not deterministic of urban futures.
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Nigeria contains some of Africa's oldest and newest cities, hosts five of the 30 largest urban settlements on the continent, and is estimated to have the biggest urban population on the continent. Yet many of the basic 'facts' about... more
Nigeria contains some of Africa's oldest and newest cities, hosts five of the 30 largest urban settlements on the continent, and is estimated to have the biggest urban population on the continent. Yet many of the basic 'facts' about spatial-demographic trends in Nigeria have been contested. Most recently, an article published in World Development in 2012 claimed that urbanization had stalled in Nigeria. In an effort to establish and explain the stylized facts of Nigeria's urban transition we analyze demographic and spatial trends drawing on diverse sources, including censuses, household surveys, remotely sensed data, and migration studies conducted over the past three decades. The evidence does not support the claim of stalled urbanization: Nigeria's urban population is growing rapidly in absolute terms and will continue to increase as a share of the national population due both to rural-urban migration and rural transformation. These drivers of urbanization are a product of persistently high fertility in a context of declining mortality in both rural and urban areas. Robust economic growth over the past decade likely accelerated urbanization, but even as the economy slows demographic fundamentals will continue to drive rapid urban growth and urbanization. Acknowledgements: This paper draws on research conducted by the Urbanisation Research Nigeria (URN) initiative, a four year (2013-17) Department for International Development (DFID) funded research program being implemented by a consortium of Nigerian and UK universities and consultancies. For more information on the URN program and its reports, see the website
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The stylized facts of Africa's urban transition highlight the limitations of traditional economic models of urbanization. Recent research has provided evidence that demographic rather than economic processes provide a more compelling... more
The stylized facts of Africa's urban transition highlight the limitations of traditional economic models of urbanization. Recent research has provided evidence that demographic rather than economic processes provide a more compelling explanation for observed trends in the region. In particular, mortality decline appears to be both a necessary and sufficient condition for urbanization to occur and a key driver of urban growth more broadly. The accumulation of survey data over the past few decades and the development of new geospatial datasets that incorporate satellite imagery are facilitating new, more spatially nuanced insights into the dynamics of urban population change in the region. This offers opportunity to develop better policies for managing urban change than those adopted in the past, which placed a misguided emphasis on manipulating migration incentives with little evidence of positive benefits.
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The distribution of voting rights in the UK is an artefact of history rather than a product of clear legal or philosophical principles. Consequently, some resident aliens (i.e. immigrants) have the right to vote in all UK elections;... more
The distribution of voting rights in the UK is an artefact of history rather than a product of clear legal or philosophical principles. Consequently, some resident aliens (i.e. immigrants) have the right to vote in all UK elections; others can vote in local elections but are excluded from national elections; still others are excluded from all elections. In England and Wales alone, roughly 2.3 million immigrants are excluded from voting in national elections. This exclusion is inconsistent with the founding principle of democracy and distorts political discourse. What if all immigrants could vote in national elections? We estimate that up to ninety-five parliamentary seats could have been won by a different party in the 2015 general election. More substantially, enfranchising all immigrants would require re-drawing UK constituency boundaries. The new electoral map would increase the relative power of urban constituencies and would incentivise some political entrepreneurs and parties to temper anti-immigration rhetoric.
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Urbanization has long been seen by scholars and policymakers as a disruptive process that can contribute to social and political unrest, yet there is little cross-national quantitative empirical research on the topic. In this paper we... more
Urbanization has long been seen by scholars and policymakers as a disruptive process that can contribute to social and political unrest, yet there is little cross-national quantitative empirical research on the topic. In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of the links between urban geography and the incidence of protests (i.e. demonstrations, riots and strikes) in African countries since 1990. In contrast to previous studies, we are careful to distinguish between urban population scale effects, urban population ratio effects, population rate-of-change effects and urban population distribution effects. We also provide an explicit test of the long-standing hypothesis that ‘over-urbanization’ increases the risk of civil unrest. Employing multilevel negative binomial models that control for key political and economic variables we find that urban population size and the number of large cities in a country are both positively and significantly associated protest incidence. By contrast, we find that a country's level of urbanization is negatively associated with protest incidence and reject the over-urbanization hypothesis: higher levels of urbanization are associated with less frequent protests at all income levels. We find no evidence that the pace of urban population growth or urban primacy significantly influence protest mobilization. In sum, our results provide a nuanced picture of the relationship between urban geography and protest incidence that challenges conventional wisdom and contemporary hyperbole about the dangers of ‘rapid urbanization’ in Africa in particular, and developing countries more generally.
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Over 800 million people in Africa, Asia, and Latin America live in slums. Why? I argue that slums are a result of “disjointed modernization” and show that 70% of cross-country variation in slum incidence is explained by demographic,... more
Over 800 million people in Africa, Asia, and Latin America live in slums. Why? I argue that slums are a result of “disjointed modernization” and show that 70% of cross-country variation in slum incidence is explained by demographic, economic, and institutional factors. I trace the origins of disjointed modernization in sub-Saharan Africa back to the colonial period and show that colonial era investments and institutions are reflected in contemporary variation in slum incidence. I argue that status quo interests and the rise of an anti-urbanization bias in development discourse have inhibited investment and reform in the postcolonial era.
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Urbanization has traditionally been understood as a byproduct of economic development, but this explanatory framework fails to account for the phenomenon of “urbanization without growth” observed in sub-Saharan Africa throughout the 1980s... more
Urbanization has traditionally been understood as a byproduct of economic development, but this explanatory framework fails to account for the phenomenon of “urbanization without growth” observed in sub-Saharan Africa throughout the 1980s and 1990s. In light of this apparent anomaly, I argue that urbanization is better understood as a global historical process driven by population dynamics associated with technological and institutional innovations that have substantially improved disease control and food security in urban settlements across the globe. These innovations first emerged in Europe in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries and were subsequently diffused through colonialism, trade, and international development assistance. A range of qualitative and quantitative evidence is presented to demonstrate that this historically grounded theory of urbanization offers a more convincing explanation for the stylized facts of Africa's urban transition—and hence the process of world urbanization more broadly—than the traditional economic account.
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The process of urbanisation has historically been associated with both socioeconomic development and social strain. Although there is little evidence that urbanisation per se increases the likelihood of conflict or violence in a country,... more
The process of urbanisation has historically been associated with both socioeconomic development and social strain. Although there is little evidence that urbanisation per se increases the likelihood of conflict or violence in a country, in recent decades Africa has experienced exceptional rates of urban population growth in a context of economic stagnation and poor governance, producing conditions conducive to social unrest and violence. In order to improve urban security in the years ahead, the underlying risk factors must be addressed, including urban poverty, inequality, and fragile political institutions. This, in turn, requires improving urban governance in the region by strengthening the capacity of local government institutions, addressing the complex political dynamics that impede effective urban planning and management, and cultivating integrated development strategies that involve cooperation between various tiers and spheres of government and civil society.
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Why are some countries more prone to social violence than others? Despite the fact that annual deaths due to homicides worldwide outnumber those due to organized armed conflict by a factor of roughly 3 to 1, this question has received... more
Why are some countries more prone to social violence than others? Despite the fact that annual deaths due to homicides worldwide outnumber those due to organized armed conflict by a factor of roughly 3 to 1, this question has received very little attention from conflict and development specialists in recent years. As a modest first step in addressing this gap in the literature we draw together insights from the conflict and criminology literatures to develop a model of social violence that accounts for both political-institutional and socio-economic factors. While there is an extensive literature on the socio-economic determinants of social violence, there are only a handful of studies that consider the significance of political-institutional arrangements. Using cross-country estimates of homicides produced by the World Health Organization as an indicator of social violence, we test our model using OLS regression analysis for a sample of more than 120 countries. We find that countries with ‘hybrid’ political orders experience higher rates of social violence than those with strong autocratic or strong democratic regimes, and that weakly institutionalized democracies are particularly violent. We also find robust associations between indicators of poverty, inequality and ethnic diversity and social violence. These results indicate that social and political violence share some common underlying causes. We conclude by suggesting that the apparent global decline in organized armed conflict and the concomitant rise in social violence in recent decades may be linked to world urbanization and the ‘third wave’ of democratization in the global South, although further research is required to confirm this hypothesis.
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Why are some countries more prone to social violence than others? Despite the fact that annual deaths due to homicides worldwide outnumber those due to organized armed conflict by a factor of roughly 3 to 1, this question has received... more
Why are some countries more prone to social violence than others? Despite the fact that annual deaths due to homicides worldwide outnumber those due to organized armed conflict by a factor of roughly 3 to 1, this question has received very little attention from conflict and development specialists in recent years. As a modest first step in addressing this gap in the literature we draw together insights from the conflict and criminology literatures to develop a model of social violence that accounts for both political-institutional and socio-economic factors. While there is an extensive literature on the socio-economic determinants of social violence, there are only a handful of studies that consider the significance of political-institutional arrangements. Using cross-country estimates of homicides produced by the World Health Organization as an indicator of social violence, we test our model using OLS regression analysis for a sample of more than 120 countries. We find that countries with ‘hybrid’ political orders experience
higher rates of social violence than those with strong autocratic or strong democratic regimes, and that weakly institutionalized
democracies are particularly violent. We also find robust associations between indicators of poverty, inequality and ethnic diversity and social violence. These results indicate that social and political violence share some common underlying causes. We conclude by suggesting that the apparent global decline in organized armed conflict and the concomitant rise in social violence in recent decades may be linked to world urbanization and the ‘third wave’ of democratization in the global South, although further research is required to confirm this hypothesis.
higher rates of social violence than those with strong autocratic or strong democratic regimes, and that weakly institutionalized
democracies are particularly violent. We also find robust associations between indicators of poverty, inequality and ethnic diversity and social violence. These results indicate that social and political violence share some common underlying causes. We conclude by suggesting that the apparent global decline in organized armed conflict and the concomitant rise in social violence in recent decades may be linked to world urbanization and the ‘third wave’ of democratization in the global South, although further research is required to confirm this hypothesis.
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This post is the first in a two part series exploring the relationship between population growth and economic development – a relationship that appears to have changed over time.
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Beijing defeated the Umbrella Movement by applying strategic patience and minimal force, allowing the Occupy Camp to become a nuisance to business and the general public. But further confrontations are likely unless the underlying issues... more
Beijing defeated the Umbrella Movement by applying strategic patience and minimal force, allowing the Occupy Camp to become a nuisance to business and the general public. But further confrontations are likely unless the underlying issues that motivated protesters are addressed.
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LSE’s Sean Fox argues that some basic misunderstandings about the nature and causes of Africa’s urban transition have resulted in decades of misguided development policies in the region
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For the first time in human history more people now live and towns and cities than in rural areas. In the wealthier countries of the world, the transition from predominantly rural to urban habitation is more or less complete. But in many... more
For the first time in human history more people now live and towns and cities than in rural areas. In the wealthier countries of the world, the transition from predominantly rural to urban habitation is more or less complete. But in many parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America, urban populations are expanding rapidly. Current UN projections indicate that virtually all population growth in the world over the next 30 years will be absorbed by towns and cities in developing countries. These simple demographic facts have profound implications for those concerned with understanding and addressing the pressing global development challenges of reducing poverty, promoting economic growth, improving human security and confronting environmental change.
This revised and expanded second edition of Cities and Development explores the dynamic relationship between urbanism and development from a global perspective. The book surveys a wide range of topics, including: the historical origins of world urbanization; the role cities play in the process of economic development; the nature of urban poverty and the challenge of promoting sustainable livelihoods; the complexities of managing urban land, housing, infrastructure and urban services; and the spectres of endemic crime, conflict and violence in urban areas. This updated volume also contains two entirely new chapters: one that examines the links between urbanisation and environmental change, and a second that focuses on urban governance and politics.
Adopting a multidisciplinary perspective, the book critically engages with debates in urban studies, geography and international development studies. Each chapter includes supplements in the form of case studies, chapter summaries, questions for discussion and suggested further readings. The book is targeted at upper-level undergraduate and graduate students interested in geography, urban studies and international development studies, as well as policy makers, urban planners and development practitioners.
This revised and expanded second edition of Cities and Development explores the dynamic relationship between urbanism and development from a global perspective. The book surveys a wide range of topics, including: the historical origins of world urbanization; the role cities play in the process of economic development; the nature of urban poverty and the challenge of promoting sustainable livelihoods; the complexities of managing urban land, housing, infrastructure and urban services; and the spectres of endemic crime, conflict and violence in urban areas. This updated volume also contains two entirely new chapters: one that examines the links between urbanisation and environmental change, and a second that focuses on urban governance and politics.
Adopting a multidisciplinary perspective, the book critically engages with debates in urban studies, geography and international development studies. Each chapter includes supplements in the form of case studies, chapter summaries, questions for discussion and suggested further readings. The book is targeted at upper-level undergraduate and graduate students interested in geography, urban studies and international development studies, as well as policy makers, urban planners and development practitioners.
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By 2030 more than sixty percent of the world's population will live in urban areas, with most of the world’s population growth over the next twenty-five years being absorbed by cities and towns in low and middle income countries. What are... more
By 2030 more than sixty percent of the world's population will live in urban areas, with most of the world’s population growth over the next twenty-five years being absorbed by cities and towns in low and middle income countries. What are the consequences of this shift? Demographic pressure already strains the capacity of local and national governments to manage urban change. Today, nearly one billion people live in slums, and in the absence of significant intervention that number is set to double in the next two decades. Will our future be dominated by mega-cities of poverty and despair, or can urbanization be harnessed to advance human and economic development?
Cities and Development provides a critical exploration of the dynamic relationship between urbanism and development. Highlighting both the challenges and opportunities associated with rapid urban change, the book surveys:
-the historical relationship between urbanization and development
-the role cities play in fostering economic growth in a globalizing world
-the unique characteristics of urban poverty and the poor record of interventions designed to tackle it
-the complexities of managing urban environments; issues of urban crime, violence, war and terrorism in contemporary cities
-the importance of urban planning, governance and politics in shaping city futures.
This book brings into conversation debates from urban and development studies and highlights the strengths and weaknesses of current policy and planning responses to the contemporary urban challenge. It includes research orientated supplements in the form of summaries, boxed case studies, development questions and further reading. The book is intended for senior undergraduate and graduate students interested in urban, international and development studies, as well as policy-makers and planners concerned with equitable and sustainable urban development.
Cities and Development provides a critical exploration of the dynamic relationship between urbanism and development. Highlighting both the challenges and opportunities associated with rapid urban change, the book surveys:
-the historical relationship between urbanization and development
-the role cities play in fostering economic growth in a globalizing world
-the unique characteristics of urban poverty and the poor record of interventions designed to tackle it
-the complexities of managing urban environments; issues of urban crime, violence, war and terrorism in contemporary cities
-the importance of urban planning, governance and politics in shaping city futures.
This book brings into conversation debates from urban and development studies and highlights the strengths and weaknesses of current policy and planning responses to the contemporary urban challenge. It includes research orientated supplements in the form of summaries, boxed case studies, development questions and further reading. The book is intended for senior undergraduate and graduate students interested in urban, international and development studies, as well as policy-makers and planners concerned with equitable and sustainable urban development.
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Why do some of Africa's urban areas experience higher rates of protest incidence than others? Numerous authors have highlighted the role of urbanisation and democratisation in determining cross-national variation in the rates of... more
Why do some of Africa's urban areas experience higher rates of protest incidence than others? Numerous authors have highlighted the role of urbanisation and democratisation in determining cross-national variation in the rates of urban protest. Yet understanding has been hindered by failures to measure mechanisms at the appropriate spatial scale, analyse a sufficiently representative sample of urban centres, de-confound local and country-level factors, and consider what it is about specific urban centres that shapes variation in protest incidence. This paper presents new evidence on the determinants of protests in African urban centres by linking georeferenced data on urban settlements from the Urban Centres Database to the location of protest events taken from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset. Fitting a series of multilevel regression models with cross-level effects, we simultaneously estimate variation in protest incidence as a function of local-and country-level factors and the interactions between them. Our results indicate that variation in protest incidence between urban centres can be explained by a combination of local-specific and country-level contextual factors including population size and growth, regime type, civil society capacity, and whether an urban centre is politically significant. These findings advance our understanding of how political and demographic factors interact and influence protest incidence in urban Africa.
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The global urban population is expected to grow by 2.5 billion over the next three decades, and 90% of this growth will occur in African and Asian countries. Urban expansion in these regions is often characterised by ‘informal... more
The global urban population is expected to grow by 2.5 billion over the next three decades, and 90% of this growth will occur in African and Asian countries. Urban expansion in these regions is often characterised by ‘informal urbanization’ whereby households self-build without planning permission in contexts of ambiguous, insecure or disputed property rights. Despite the scale of informal urbanization, it has received little attention from scholars working in the domains of urban analytics and city science. Towards addressing this gap, we introduce TI-City, an urban growth model designed to predict the locations, legal status and socio-economic status of future residential developments in an African city. In a bottom-up approach, we use agent-based and cellular automata modelling techniques to predict the geospatial behaviour of key urban development actors, including households, real estate developers and government. We apply the model to the city-region of Accra, Ghana, drawing o...
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Research Interests: Sociology, Geography, Human Geography, Demography, African Studies, and 15 moreDevelopment Economics, Economic Geography, Comparative Politics, Development Studies, Peace and Conflict Studies, International Development, Political Science, Protest, African Politics, Political Geography, Political Demography, Population, Urban Climate, Mobilization, and Unrest
Urbanization is transforming the human and political geography of Africa. While a growing body of research explores the urban dimensions of clientelism, contentious action, and social mobilization, there has been less attention given to... more
Urbanization is transforming the human and political geography of Africa. While a growing body of research explores the urban dimensions of clientelism, contentious action, and social mobilization, there has been less attention given to the ways in which this demographic megatrend is influencing political change more broadly. We argue that the political implications of African urbanization are contingent on local conditions and experiences; there are no deterministic associations between urbanization and political change. To better understand the mechanisms linking urbanization to politics, we argue that a place-based approach is needed. We illustrate this by reviewing and highlighting how urbanization may affect (i) the nature and balance of citizen preferences; (ii) the composition, interests, and influence of elite actors; (iii) forms of political mobilization; (iv) shifting gender roles; (v) the role of civil society in political processes; and (vi) the likelihood and manifestat...
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In a recently published working paper, LSE’s Sean Fox examines the wide variation in slum incidence across several countries in Africa.
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For the first time in human history more people now live and towns and cities than in rural areas. In the wealthier countries of the world, the transition from predominantly rural to urban habitation is more or less complete. But in many... more
For the first time in human history more people now live and towns and cities than in rural areas. In the wealthier countries of the world, the transition from predominantly rural to urban habitation is more or less complete. But in many parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America, urban populations are expanding rapidly. Current UN projections indicate that virtually all population growth in the world over the next 30 years will be absorbed by towns and cities in developing countries. These simple demographic facts have profound implications for those concerned with understanding and addressing the pressing global development challenges of reducing poverty, promoting economic growth, improving human security and confronting environmental change. This revised and expanded second edition of Cities and Development explores the dynamic relationship between urbanism and development from a global perspective. The book surveys a wide range of topics, including: the historical origins of world urbanization; the role cities play in the process of economic development; the nature of urban poverty and the challenge of promoting sustainable livelihoods; the complexities of managing urban land, housing, infrastructure and urban services; and the spectres of endemic crime, conflict and violence in urban areas. This updated volume also contains two entirely new chapters: one that examines the links between urbanisation and environmental change, and a second that focuses on urban governance and politics. Adopting a multidisciplinary perspective, the book critically engages with debates in urban studies, geography and international development studies. Each chapter includes supplements in the form of case studies, chapter summaries, questions for discussion and suggested further readings. The book is targeted at upper-level undergraduate and graduate students interested in geography, urban studies and international development studies, as well as policy makers, urban planners and development practitioners.
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We provide estimates of GDP growth in Greater Yangon between 1992 and 2013 by exploiting nightlights data. Subnational estimates were derived by calculating the elasticity of luminosity with respect to GDP for Myanmar as a whole using... more
We provide estimates of GDP growth in Greater Yangon between 1992 and 2013 by exploiting nightlights data. Subnational estimates were derived by calculating the elasticity of luminosity with respect to GDP for Myanmar as a whole using time series luminosity and GDP data and then converting observed luminosity values for Yangon in GDP by applying the national level elasticity estimates. The results suggest that Yangon’s GDP grew at an average annual rate of 4.45 percent between 1992 and 2013 and by 11.17 percent per annum during the reform period beginning in 2008. This method may be useful for monitoring urban economic growth in other low and middle income countries.
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Research Interests: Urban Geography, Demography, African Studies, Economics, Development Economics, and 15 moreComparative Politics, Political Economy, Development Studies, Urban Politics, International Development, Africa, Urban Planning, Urban Studies, Political Economy of Development, Urban And Regional Planning, Urbanization, Urban Development, World Development, Social Policy Development, and Public Policy
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We are living through a global urban transition, but the timing of this transition has varied significantly across countries and regions. This geographic variation in timing matters, both theoretically and substantively. Yet contemporary... more
We are living through a global urban transition, but the timing of this transition has varied significantly across countries and regions. This geographic variation in timing matters, both theoretically and substantively. Yet contemporary debates on urbanism hinge primarily on questions of universalism versus particularism, at the expense of attention to how history and geography collide to shape urban processes. Specifically, they neglect the critical fact that urbanisation in many countries today is late within the context of the global urban transition. We argue that trajectories of contemporary urbanisation must be understood in relation to a suite of conditions unique to the late 20th and early 21st centuries and partly shaped by early urbanisation, including historically unprecedented demographic intensity, hyperglobalisation, centripetal state politics and the spectre of environmental catastrophe in the late Anthropocene. These factors condition the range of possibilities for ...
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In this article I argue that urbanization should be understood as a global historical process driven primarily by population dynamics stimulated by technological and institutional change. In particular, disease control and expanded access... more
In this article I argue that urbanization should be understood as a global historical process driven primarily by population dynamics stimulated by technological and institutional change. In particular, disease control and expanded access to surplus energy supplies are necessary and sufficient conditions for urbanization to occur given historical evidence of an inherent human propensity to agglomerate. Economic development, which has traditionally been viewed as the primary driving force behind urbanization, can accelerate the process but is not a necessary condition for it to occur. Informed by this historically-grounded theory of urbanization, a range of qualitative and quantitative evidence is used to explain the stylized facts of sub-Saharan Africa's urban transition, namely the late onset of urbanization in Africa vis-à-vis other major world regions, the widely noted but inadequately explained phenomenon of 'urbanization without growth' observed in Africa in the 198...
Data deficits in developing countries impede evidence-based urban planning and policy, as well as fundamental research. We show that residential electricity consumption data can be used to partially address this challenge by serving as a... more
Data deficits in developing countries impede evidence-based urban planning and policy, as well as fundamental research. We show that residential electricity consumption data can be used to partially address this challenge by serving as a proxy for relative living standards at the block or neighbourhood scale. We illustrate this potential by combining infrastructure and land use data from Open Street Map with georeferenced data from ~2 million residential electricity meters in the megacity of Karachi, Pakistan to map median electricity consumption at block level. Equivalent areal estimates of economic activity derived from high-resolution night lights data (VIIRS) are shown to be a poor predictor of intraurban variation in living standards by comparison. We argue that electricity data are an underutilised source of information that could be used to address empirical questions related to urban poverty and development at relatively high spatial and temporal resolution. Given near unive...
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The measurement of urbanization and other key urban indicators depends on how urban areas are defined. The Degree of Urbanization (DEGURBA) has been recently adopted to support international statistical comparability, but its rigid... more
The measurement of urbanization and other key urban indicators depends on how urban areas are defined. The Degree of Urbanization (DEGURBA) has been recently adopted to support international statistical comparability, but its rigid criteria for classify areas as urban/non-urban based upon fixed population size and density criteria is controversial. Here we present an alternative approach to urban classification, using a flexible range of population density \& count thresholds. We then compare how these thresholds affect estimation of urbanization and urban settlement counts across three of the most popular gridded population datasets (GPD). Instead of introducing further uncertainties by matching GPD to built-up area datasets, we classify urban areas in a purely spatial demographic way. By calculating national urban shares and urban area counts, we highlight the often overlooked uncertainties when using GPD. We find that the choice of GPD is generally the dominant factor in altering...
In the previous two parts of this series, we discussed the history and current status of quantitative geography. In this final part, we focus on the future. We argue that quantitative geographers are most helpful when we can simplify... more
In the previous two parts of this series, we discussed the history and current status of quantitative geography. In this final part, we focus on the future. We argue that quantitative geographers are most helpful when we can simplify difficult problems using our distinct domain expertise. To do this, we must clarify the theory underpinning core conceptual problems in quantitative geography. Then, we examine the social forces that are shaping the future of quantitative geography. We conclude with criteria for how quantitative geography might succeed in addressing these challenges.
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Nigeria contains some of Africa’s oldest and newest cities, hosts five of the 30 largest urban settlements on the continent, and is estimated to have the biggest urban population on the continent. Yet many of the basic ‘facts’ about... more
Nigeria contains some of Africa’s oldest and newest cities, hosts five of the 30 largest urban settlements on the continent, and is estimated to have the biggest urban population on the continent. Yet many of the basic ‘facts’ about spatial-demographic trends in Nigeria have been contested. Most recently, an article published in World Development in 2012 claimed that urbanisation had stalled in Nigeria. In an effort to establish and explain the stylised facts of Nigeria’s urban transition we analyse demographic and spatial trends drawing on diverse sources, including censuses, household surveys, remotely sensed data and migration studies conducted over the past three decades. The evidence does not support the claim of stalled urbanisation: Nigeria’s urban population is growing rapidly in absolute terms and will continue to increase as a share of the national population because of both rural–urban migration and rural transformation. These drivers of urbanisation are a product of pers...
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The stylized facts of Africa's urban transition highlight the limitations of traditional economic models of urbanization. Recent research has provided evidence that demographic rather than economic processes provide a more compelling... more
The stylized facts of Africa's urban transition highlight the limitations of traditional economic models of urbanization. Recent research has provided evidence that demographic rather than economic processes provide a more compelling explanation for observed trends in the region. In particular, mortality decline appears to be both a necessary and sufficient condition for urbanization to occur and a key driver of urban growth more broadly. The accumulation of survey data over the past few decades and the development of new geospatial datasets that incorporate satellite imagery are facilitating new, more spatially nuanced insights into the dynamics of urban population change in the region. This offers opportunity to develop better policies for managing urban change than those adopted in the past, which placed a misguided emphasis on manipulating migration incentives with little evidence of positive benefits.
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Inspired by the work of Charles Tilly (1989), who highlighted the pivotal role that cities played in the historical genesis of the modern state in Europe, research undertaken in the Cities and Fragile States (CAFS) Programme of the Crisis... more
Inspired by the work of Charles Tilly (1989), who highlighted the pivotal role that cities played in the historical genesis of the modern state in Europe, research undertaken in the Cities and Fragile States (CAFS) Programme of the Crisis States Research Centre (CSRC ...
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The process of urbanisation has historically been associated with both socioeconomic development and social strain. Although there is little evidence that urbanisation per se increases the likelihood of conflict or violence in a country,... more
The process of urbanisation has historically been associated with both socioeconomic development and social strain. Although there is little evidence that urbanisation per se increases the likelihood of conflict or violence in a country, in recent decades Africa has experienced exceptional rates of urban population growth in a context of economic stagnation and poor governance, producing conditions conducive to social unrest and violence. In order to improve urban security in the years ahead, the underlying risk factors must be addressed, including urban poverty, inequality, and fragile political institutions. This, in turn, requires improving urban governance in the region by strengthening the capacity of local government institutions, addressing the complex political dynamics that impede effective urban planning and management, and cultivating integrated development strategies that involve cooperation between various tiers and spheres of government and civil society.
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Research Interests: Sociology, Human Geography, Urban Geography, Demography, African Studies, and 12 moreComparative Politics, Development Studies, Peace and Conflict Studies, International Development, Political Science, Urban Studies, Protest, African Politics, Political Geography, Political Demography, Mobilization, and Public Administration and Policy
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Nigeria’s urban population has increased rapidly over the past 50 years and will continue to grow relatively fast in the coming decades, although how fast is a matter of some dispute. Nigeria’s urban population will nonetheless likely... more
Nigeria’s urban population has increased rapidly over the past 50 years and will continue to grow relatively fast in the coming decades, although how fast is a matter of some dispute. Nigeria’s urban population will nonetheless likely double within the next 30 years, possibly much sooner. The growth of Nigeria’s urban population in both absolute and relative terms has been accompanied by the expansion of existing built-up areas and the emergence of new and identifiably ‘urban’ settlements.
This report analyses urbanisation and urban expansion in Nigeria, portraying the dynamics and drivers of urban population growth and the spatial expansion process.
The report serves as a detailed ‘baseline’ report for the urban change processes theme of the Urbanisation Research Nigeria (URN) programme – and as a foundation for the later, targeted and more detailed research.
This report analyses urbanisation and urban expansion in Nigeria, portraying the dynamics and drivers of urban population growth and the spatial expansion process.
The report serves as a detailed ‘baseline’ report for the urban change processes theme of the Urbanisation Research Nigeria (URN) programme – and as a foundation for the later, targeted and more detailed research.
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UN HABITAT publication on the state of African cities produced every two years. Accounts for the state of African cities and recommends a vision for sustainable African urbanism.
Research Interests: Sustainable Development, Sustainable Urbanism, Politics And Planning In African Cities, Sustainable Urban Planning, Sustainable Urban Design, and 10 moreSustainable Cities, African urbanization, secondary cities, Sustainable Urbanisation, African urbanism, African urbanization, Sustainable Cities and Communities, Inclusive Cities and Sustainable Cities and Their Growth, African Cities, Sustainable African Urbanism, and African Urban Transitions
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This thesis consists of a brief introduction, which situates the work within in the intellectual history of development theory, and three papers that address important gaps in our understanding about the dynamics of urbanisation and urban... more
This thesis consists of a brief introduction, which situates the work within in the intellectual history of development theory, and three papers that address important gaps in our understanding about the dynamics of urbanisation and urban development in sub-Saharan Africa.
The first provides an interdisciplinary, historical perspective on the dynamics of urbanisation and urban growth in the region from the colonial era to the present day. I argue that these processes are fundamentally driven by mortality decline set in motion by improvements in disease control and food security. Viewed through this lens, the widely noted phenomena of ‘urbanisation without growth’ and very rapid urban population growth in the late 20thcentury are not as unusual as they have often been portrayed by development economists and policymakers.
The second addresses the question of why sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rate of slum incidence of any major world region. I argue that slums can be interpreted as a consequence of ‘disjointed modernization’ in which urban population growth outpaces economic and institutional development. I trace the origins of disjointed modernization in sub-Saharan Africa back to the colonial period and show that colonial era investments and institutions are reflected in contemporary variation in slum incidence. I argue that ‘status quo interests’ and the rise of an anti-urbanisation bias in development discourse have inhibited investment and reform in the post-colonial era.
The final paper presents and tests an empirical model designed to account for variation in urban protest activity across countries in the region. The model is comprised of basic demographic, political and economic factors that theoretically influence the motives, means and opportunities of potential protesters. The results of a panel data analysis are consistent with the core hypotheses, but several unexpected results emerge. More research is required to confirm these results, clarify mechanisms and account for broader trends in contentious collective action in the region.
The first provides an interdisciplinary, historical perspective on the dynamics of urbanisation and urban growth in the region from the colonial era to the present day. I argue that these processes are fundamentally driven by mortality decline set in motion by improvements in disease control and food security. Viewed through this lens, the widely noted phenomena of ‘urbanisation without growth’ and very rapid urban population growth in the late 20thcentury are not as unusual as they have often been portrayed by development economists and policymakers.
The second addresses the question of why sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rate of slum incidence of any major world region. I argue that slums can be interpreted as a consequence of ‘disjointed modernization’ in which urban population growth outpaces economic and institutional development. I trace the origins of disjointed modernization in sub-Saharan Africa back to the colonial period and show that colonial era investments and institutions are reflected in contemporary variation in slum incidence. I argue that ‘status quo interests’ and the rise of an anti-urbanisation bias in development discourse have inhibited investment and reform in the post-colonial era.
The final paper presents and tests an empirical model designed to account for variation in urban protest activity across countries in the region. The model is comprised of basic demographic, political and economic factors that theoretically influence the motives, means and opportunities of potential protesters. The results of a panel data analysis are consistent with the core hypotheses, but several unexpected results emerge. More research is required to confirm these results, clarify mechanisms and account for broader trends in contentious collective action in the region.
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In this paper the author argues that urbanisation should be understood as a global historical process driven primarily by population dynamics stimulated by technological and institutional change. In particular, disease control and... more
In this paper the author argues that urbanisation should be understood as a global historical process driven primarily by population dynamics stimulated by technological and institutional change. In particular, disease control and expanded access to surplus energy supplies are necessary and sufficient conditions for urbanisation to occur given historical evidence of an inherent human propensity to agglomerate. Economic development, which has traditionally been viewed as the primary driving force behind urbanisation, can accelerate the process but is not a necessary condition for it to occur. Informed by this historically-grounded theory of urbanisation, a range of qualitative and quantitative evidence is used to explain the stylised facts of sub-Saharan Africa's urban transition, namely the late onset of urbanisation in Africa vis-a-vis other major world regions, the widely noted but inadequately explained phenomenon of 'urbanisation without growth' observed in Africa in the 1980s and 1990s, and the historically unprecedented rates of urban population growth seen in the region throughout the late twentieth century.
Over 800 million people in Africa, Asia and Latin America live in slum conditions, although there is wide variation in ‘slum incidence’ across countries. To account for the scale and diversity of the slum phenomenon, I test a ‘disjointed... more
Over 800 million people in Africa, Asia and Latin America live in slum conditions, although there is wide variation in ‘slum incidence’ across countries. To account for the scale and diversity of the slum phenomenon, I test a ‘disjointed modernization’ theory using OLS regression analysis and find that 70% of contemporary variation in slum incidence is explained by demographic, economic and institutional factors. Focussing on sub-Saharan Africa, divergent urban development trajectories are traced back to the colonial era and mechanisms of path dependency are identified—namely the emergence of status quo interests and the rise of an anti-urbanization bias in development discourse.
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We provide estimates of GDP growth in Greater Yangon between 1992 and 2013 by exploiting nightlights data. Subnational estimates were derived by calculating the elasticity of luminosity with respect to GDP for Myanmar as a whole using... more
We provide estimates of GDP growth in Greater Yangon between 1992 and 2013 by exploiting nightlights data. Subnational estimates were derived by calculating the elasticity of luminosity with respect to GDP for Myanmar as a whole using time series luminosity and GDP data and then converting observed luminosity values for Yangon in GDP by applying the national level elasticity estimates. The results suggest that Yangon's GDP grew at an average annual rate of 4.45 percent between 1992 and 2013 and by 11.17 percent per annum during the reform period beginning in 2008. This method may be useful for monitoring urban economic growth in other low and middle income countries.
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The city of Yangon is home to over 5 million people, hosts Myanmar’s largest port and produces a disproportionate share of national output. But a mobility crisis is undermining the city’s economic potential and contributing to a... more
The city of Yangon is home to over 5 million people, hosts Myanmar’s largest port and produces a disproportionate share of national output. But a mobility crisis is undermining the city’s economic potential and contributing to a deteriorating quality of life for its residents. The most obvious symptom of this crisis is acute traffic congestion. The proximate causes are clear: growing demand for journeys, a surge in vehicle numbers, a modal shift away from buses, and myriad ‘flow disruptions’. However, solving this mobility crisis requires recognizing the underlying causes, including a ‘congestion incentive spiral’ fuelled by a lack of alternatives to bus and private automobiles, and the absence of an empowered transport agency with the authority and capacity to coordinate planning, investment and regulation designed to maximise mobility at the metropolitan scale. In this paper we offer a systematic analysis of both the proximate and underlying causes of Yangon’s mobility crisis and provide a discussion of policy options and priorities to get the city moving again.
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The distribution of voting rights in the UK is an artefact of history rather than a product of clear legal or philosophical principles. Consequently, some resident aliens have the right to vote in all UK elections; many others are... more
The distribution of voting rights in the UK is an artefact of history rather than a product of clear legal or philosophical principles. Consequently, some resident aliens have the right to vote in all UK elections; many others are excluded from national elections and still others from all elections. In England and Wales alone roughly 2.3 million immigrants are excluded from voting in national elections. This exclusion is inconsistent with the founding principle of democracy and distorts political discourse. What if all adult immigrants could vote? We estimate that up to 95 parliamentary seats might have been won by a different party in the 2015 general election if all immigrants could vote. More substantially, enfranchising all legal adult immigrants would require re-drawing UK constituency boundaries. The new electoral map would increase the relative power of urban constituencies and would incentivise some political entrepreneurs and parties to temper anti-immigration rhetoric.