Heike K Lotze
Dalhousie University, Biology, Faculty Member
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Marine ecosystems have been influenced by human activities throughout history, with a general intensification and diversification of human impacts over time. Yet only recently have we begun to reconstruct the resulting changes in marine... more
Marine ecosystems have been influenced by human activities throughout history, with a general intensification and diversification of human impacts over time. Yet only recently have we begun to reconstruct the resulting changes in marine populations and ecosystems, and their consequences for human well-being. In this chapter, we present the use of ecological indicators and food-web models as tools to analyse historical changes in marine species and ecosystems. Because marine ecosystems are inherently complex, ecological indicators can help describe them and their changes in simpler terms. Commonly used indicators include species occurrence and abundance, functional group presence such as feeding types, habitat builders or filter feeders, as well as species traits such as body size or trophic ecology. These can be reconstructed for past time periods and used to analyse changes in individual populations or across multiple species over time, thereby providing insight into changes in marine species and ecosystems. A step further, food webs combine multiple species or functional groups and aim to represent the more complex relationships and interactions within marine ecosystems. These can range from qualitative, conceptual food-web illustrations to quantitative modelling approaches that can be used to analyse emerging food-web properties and changes in food-web structure and functioning. We provide a wide range of examples on how different indicators and models have been used and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches. Finally, we provide an outlook on their potential to advance marine historical research in the future.
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Ambient temperature is very likely the most important environmental factor determining the distribution and diversity of life in the oceans. Hence, climate change is expected to alter marine biodiversity on a global scale. Here we review... more
Ambient temperature is very likely the most important environmental factor determining the distribution and diversity of life in the oceans. Hence, climate change is expected to alter marine biodiversity on a global scale. Here we review observed and predicted effects of climate change on the diversity of marine species. Overall, an increasing number of studies demonstrate that effects of climate change on marine biodiversity are already apparent from local to global scales. So far, long-term fish and plankton monitoring data have provided the most compelling evidence for climate-driven changes in species distribution and diversity, but studies involving other groups such as corals, seaweeds and mammals are increasing. As a general pattern, tropical regions often experience a loss of species due to elevated heat stress, whereas temperate regions increase in diversity, as species migrate poleward. Net increases in diversity are also expected in the polar regions, but so far there are few observations to support this. Complex patterns of change can emerge where ocean warming is accompanied by the effects of sea level rise, acidification, habitat change, changes in ocean circulation, stratification and other aspects of global change. From a management perspective, the conservation of biological diversity will provide insurance and resilience in the face of rapid global change. Cumulative impacts of exploitation, habitat destruction and other threats to biodiversity need to be minimized to maintain the adaptive capacity of marine ecosystems in the present and coming centuries. This might be particularly pressing in tropical regions and developing countries, which will face exceptional socioeconomic and climate-related pressures, as well as in the polar regions, which are faced with a multitude of emerging pressures.
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Many coastal oceans experience not only increased loads of nutrients but also changes in the stoichiometry of nutrient supply. Excess supply of nitrogen and stable or decreased supply of silicon lower silicon to nitrogen (Si:N) ratios,... more
Many coastal oceans experience not only increased loads of nutrients but also changes in the stoichiometry of nutrient supply. Excess supply of nitrogen and stable or decreased supply of silicon lower silicon to nitrogen (Si:N) ratios, which may decrease diatom proportion in phytoplankton. To examine how Si:N ratios affect plankton community composition and food web structure, we performed a mesocosm experiment where we manipulated Si:N ratios and copepod abundance in a Baltic Sea plankton community. In high Si:N treatments, diatoms dominated. Some of them were likely spared from grazing unexpectedly resulting in higher diatom biomass under high copepod grazing. With declining Si:N ratios, dinoflagellates became more abundant under low and picoplankton under high copepod grazing. This altered plankton food web structure: under high Si:N ratios, edible diatoms were directly accessible food for copepods, while under low Si:N ratios, microzooplankton and phago-mixotrophs (mixoplankton) were a more important food source for mesograzers. The response of copepods to changes in the phytoplankton community was complex and copepod density-dependent. We suggest that declining Si:N ratios favor microzoo- and mixoplankton leading to increased complexity of planktonic food webs. Consequences on higher trophic levels will, however, likely be moderated by edibility, nutritional value or toxicity of dominant phytoplankton species.
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American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, 11-15 December 2017, New OrleansIncreased occurrence of extreme climate or weather events is one of the most damaging consequences of global climate change today and in the future. Estimating the... more
American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, 11-15 December 2017, New OrleansIncreased occurrence of extreme climate or weather events is one of the most damaging consequences of global climate change today and in the future. Estimating the impacts of such extreme events across different human and natural systems is crucial for quantifying overall risks from climate change. Are current models fit for this task? Here we use the 2003 European heat wave and drought (EHW) as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, and evaluate how accurately its impacts are reproduced by a multi-sectoral >super-ensemble> of state-of-the-art impacts models. Our study combines, for the first time, impacts on agriculture, freshwater resources, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, energy, and human health in a consistent multi-model framework. We identify key impacts of the 2003 EHW reported in the literature and/or recorded in publicly available databases, and examine how closely the models reproduce those impacts, applying the same measure of impact magnitude across different sectors. Preliminary results are mixed: While the EHW's impacts on water resources (streamflow) are reproduced well by most global hydrological models, not all crop and natural vegetation models reproduce the magnitude of impacts on agriculture and ecosystem productivity, respectively, and their performance varies by country or region. A hydropower capacity model matches reported hydropower generation anomalies only in some countries, and estimates of heat-related excess mortality from a set of statistical models are consistent with literature reports only for some of the cities investigated. We present a synthesis of simulated and observed impacts across sectors, and reflect on potential improvements in modeling and analyzing cross-sectoral impactsPeer Reviewe
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Bay scale impact scores for Murphy et al. 2019 FACET
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Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models... more
Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected ...
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Marine biodiversity is the essential foundation for the structure and functioning of ocean ecosystems and for providing the full range of ecosystem services that benefit humans on local, regional, and global scales. These benefits include... more
Marine biodiversity is the essential foundation for the structure and functioning of ocean ecosystems and for providing the full range of ecosystem services that benefit humans on local, regional, and global scales. These benefits include many visible as well as unseen functions and services such as the oxygen we breathe, the seafood we eat, the support of local livelihoods, the marine plants storing 'blue' carbon and protecting our shorelines, the medical and biochemical compounds found in marine species, the coral reefs we explore when scuba diving, and the charismatic creatures inspiring our lives. All these benefits are provided by the diversity and interplay of ocean life, from tiny plankton and bacteria to 30 metre whales and giant kelp.
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We evaluate the extent of climate change adaptation in the global protected seascape, and identify ways to further advance it.
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Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time,... more
Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
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Synthetic organic polymers—or plastics—did not enter widespread use until the 1950s. By 2015, global production had increased to 322 million metric tons (Mt) year−1, which approaches the total weight of the human population produced in... more
Synthetic organic polymers—or plastics—did not enter widespread use until the 1950s. By 2015, global production had increased to 322 million metric tons (Mt) year−1, which approaches the total weight of the human population produced in plastic every year. Approximately half is used for packaging and other disposables, 40% of plastic waste is not accounted for in managed landfills or recycling facilities, and 4.8–12.7 Mt year−1 enter the ocean as macroscopic litter and microplastic particles. Here, we argue that such mismanaged plastic waste is similar to other persistent pollutants, such as dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) or polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), which once threatened a “silent spring” on land. Such a scenario seems now possible in the ocean, where plastic cannot be easily removed, accumulates in organisms and sediments, and persists much longer than on land. New evidence indicates a complex toxicology of plastic micro- and nanoparticles on marine life, and transfe...
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Climate change is shifting the abundance and distribution of marine species with consequences for ecosystem functioning, seafood supply, management and conservation. Several approaches for future projection exist but these have never been... more
Climate change is shifting the abundance and distribution of marine species with consequences for ecosystem functioning, seafood supply, management and conservation. Several approaches for future projection exist but these have never been compared systematically to assess their variability. We conducted standardized ensemble projections including 6 global fisheries and marine ecosystem models, forced with 2 Earth-system models and 4 emission scenarios in a fished and unfished ocean, to derive average trends and associated uncertainties. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4%) under low and 17% (±11%) under high emissions by 2100, primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production. These climate-change effects were slightly weaker for larger animals and in a fished ocean. Considerable regional variation ranged from strong biomass increases in high latitudes to strong decreases in mid-low latitudes, with good model agreement on the d...
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Research Interests: History, Marine Biology, Cultural Studies, Anthropology, Gender History, and 15 moreInterdisciplinarity, Environmental Studies, Environmental History, Marine Ecology, Fisheries Science, Fisheries, Fisheries Management, Marine Science, Environmental Sustainability, Aquaculture, Historical Ecology, Literary studies, Historical Studies, Marine Environmental History, and Historical Marine Ecology
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global marine fishery status with a revised dynamic
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Coastal biogenic habitats are particularly vulnerable to cumulative human impacts from both terrestrial and marine realms. Yet the broad spatial scale used in current global or regional approaches of quantifying multiple anthropogenic... more
Coastal biogenic habitats are particularly vulnerable to cumulative human impacts from both terrestrial and marine realms. Yet the broad spatial scale used in current global or regional approaches of quantifying multiple anthropogenic stressors are not relevant to the local or bay-wide scales affecting most coastal biogenic habitats. To fill this gap, we developed a standardized human impact metric to quantify the magnitude of anthropogenic impacts to coastal ecosystems more broadly, and biogenic habitats in particular. We applied this metric to 180 seagrass beds (Zostera marina), an important biogenic habitat prioritized for marine protection, across Atlantic Canada. Our impact metric includes five bay-scale and four local-scale terrestrial and marine-based impacts. Results show that seagrass beds and coastal bays in Atlantic Canada exist across a wide gradient of human impacts. Considerable differences in the range and intensity of impacts within and between regions provide insigh...
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... of case studies on how human activities have resulted in losses of ecosystem services, on governance strategies to address ... 64 | 4. Governance and Management of Ecosystem Services ... The Thai PCD also monitors water quality twice... more
... of case studies on how human activities have resulted in losses of ecosystem services, on governance strategies to address ... 64 | 4. Governance and Management of Ecosystem Services ... The Thai PCD also monitors water quality twice a year along the entire coastline of Thailand ...
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Research Interests: Environmental Science, Aquaculture, Seagrass, Habitat, Fishery, and 3 moreEcosystem, Zostera Marina, and Bay
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Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries (IOF) Seminar Series, The University of British Columbia (UBC), 22 November, 2019Driven by public awareness about climate change, increases in computing power, and dramatic increases in availability... more
Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries (IOF) Seminar Series, The University of British Columbia (UBC), 22 November, 2019Driven by public awareness about climate change, increases in computing power, and dramatic increases in availability of big data, there are now many scientific efforts trying to assess how global warming and anthropogenic activities may impact the biophysical environment, biodiversity, marine resources, and the socio-ecological marine systems at regional and global scales. Marta will present EcoOcean, a spatial-temporal ecosystem modelling complex of the global ocean that spans marine food webs from primary producers to top predators, and includes worldwide fisheries and climate dynamics. EcoOcean reproduces spatial-temporal ecosystem dynamics by linking species productivity, distributions, and tropic interactions under changing environmental conditions. Under the global model inter-comparison initiative Fish-MIP, EcoOcean has been used to simulate past and future scenarios of climate change and fisheries, considering alternative input drivers using standardized outputs from Earth System Models and contrasting RCP emission scenarios for historical and future periods. Marta will present recent innovations in the EcoOcean modelling complex, which, among others, include spatial variation in temperature-driven productivity, a high-resolution species breakdown of internal functional groups, and the ability to incorporate and predict species native ranges to bridge the gap between statistical and mechanistic modelling. EcoOcean sets a baseline to further develop global ocean analyses and to contribute to the quantification of cumulative effects assessment of multiple stressors and plausible ocean-based solutions to global changePeer reviewe
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Eelgrass (Zostera marina) forms extensive beds in temperate coastal and estuarine environments worldwide and provides important ecosystem services, including habitat for a wide range of species as well as nutrient cycling and carbon... more
Eelgrass (Zostera marina) forms extensive beds in temperate coastal and estuarine environments worldwide and provides important ecosystem services, including habitat for a wide range of species as well as nutrient cycling and carbon storage. However, little is known about how eelgrass ecosystem structure and services differ naturally among regions. Using large-scale field surveys, we examined differences in eelgrass bed structure, carbon and nitrogen storage, community composition, and habitat services across three distinct regions in Eastern Canada. We focused on eelgrass beds with low anthropogenic impacts to compare natural differences. In addition, we analyzed the relationships of eelgrass bed structure with environmental conditions, and species composition with bed structure and environmental conditions, to elucidate potential drivers of observed differences. Our results indicate that regional differences in eelgrass bed structure were weakly correlated with water column properties, whereas differences in carbon and nitrogen storage were mainly driven by differences in eelgrass biomass. There were distinct regional differences in species composition and diversity, which were particularly linked to temperature, as well as eelgrass bed structure indicating differences in habitat provision. Our results highlight natural regional differences in ecosystem structure and services which could inform spatial management and conservation strategies for eelgrass beds.
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The abundance, distribution, and size of marine species are linked to temperature and nutrient regimes and are profoundly affected by humans through exploitation and climate change. Yet little is known about long-term historical links... more
The abundance, distribution, and size of marine species are linked to temperature and nutrient regimes and are profoundly affected by humans through exploitation and climate change. Yet little is known about long-term historical links between ocean environmental changes and resource abundance to provide context for current and potential future trends and inform conservation and management. We synthesize >4000 years of climate and marine ecosystem dynamics in a Northwest Atlantic region currently undergoing rapid changes, the Gulf of Maine and Scotian Shelf. This period spans the late Holocene cooling and recent warming and includes both Indigenous and European influence. We compare environmental records from instrumental, sedimentary, coral, and mollusk archives with ecological records from fossils, archaeological, historical, and modern data, and integrate future model projections of environmental and ecosystem changes. This multidisciplinary synthesis provides insight into mult...
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Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research Open Science Conference (IMBER OSC 2014), Future Oceans, Research for marine sustainability: multiple stressors, drivers, challenges and solutions, 23-27 June 2014, Bergen, Norway
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THE RESEARCH ARTICLE "IMPACTS OF BIODIVERSITY LOSS ON OCEAN ECOSYSTEM SERVICES" BY B. Worm et al. (3 Nov. 2006, p. 787) projects that 100% of seafood-producing species stocks will collapse by 2048. The projection is inaccurate... more
THE RESEARCH ARTICLE "IMPACTS OF BIODIVERSITY LOSS ON OCEAN ECOSYSTEM SERVICES" BY B. Worm et al. (3 Nov. 2006, p. 787) projects that 100% of seafood-producing species stocks will collapse by 2048. The projection is inaccurate and overly pessimistic. Worm et al. define "collapse" as occurring when the current year's catch is <10% of the highest observed in a stock's time series. However, fish catch is rarely an adequate proxy for fish abundance, particularly for rebuilding stocks under management. A variety of biological, economic, and social factors and management decisions determine catches; low catches may occur even when stocks are high (e.g., due to low fish prices or the effects of restrictive management practices), and vice versa. The inadequacy of Worm et al. 's abundance proxy is illustrated by the time series of data for Georges Bank haddock {Melanogrammus aeglefinus). The highest catch for haddock occurred in 1965 at 150,362 tons (7). Th...
The United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity was established in 1993. Canada is a signatory nation that has adopted, and exceeded, the UN Aichi biodiversity target to protect 10% of coastal and marine areas through marine... more
The United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity was established in 1993. Canada is a signatory nation that has adopted, and exceeded, the UN Aichi biodiversity target to protect 10% of coastal and marine areas through marine protected areas or “other effective area-based conservation measures” (OECMs) by 2020. However, the science of OECMs as contributors to biodiversity conservation is relatively young and their definition and efficacy testing continue to evolve. Here, we examine whether areas closed to fishing on the Scotian Shelf in Atlantic Canada, where the groundfish community had collapsed in the early 1990s, have the potential to serve as OECMs for groundfish recovery. Using long-term research survey data, we show that three long-term area-based fishing fleet closures did not enhance per capita population growth rates of the majority of 24 common groundfish species. At a regional scale, 10 out of 24 species are currently at less than 50% of their pre-collapse (1979–199...