Nadeem Ilahi
International Monetary Fund, European Department, Department Member
Oil funds have become increasingly popular in oil exporting countries during the recent surge in oil prices. However, the literature on the contribution is small, tends to focus narrowly on their fiscal benefits, and concludes that they... more
Oil funds have become increasingly popular in oil exporting countries during the recent surge in oil prices. However, the literature on the contribution is small, tends to focus narrowly on their fiscal benefits, and concludes that they are redundant of such funds-in other words, that well designed fiscal management and policy are adequate substitutes for oil funds. This paper argues that a broader focus is needed in judging the effectiveness of such funds. We test whether oil funds help reduce macroeconomic volatility. The econometric estimation results from a 30-year panel data set of 15 countries with and without oil funds suggest that oil funds are associated with reduced volatility of broad money and prices and lower inflation. However, there is a statistically weak negative association between the presence of an oil fund and volatility of the real exchange rate.Oil;Oil revenues;Risk management;Fiscal management;Exchange rate instability;exchange rate, oil exporting countries, oil exporting, real exchange rate, exporting countries, oil exports, reer, exchange rate volatility, total exports, exchange rate policy, exporters, oil exporters, real exchange rate volatility, exporter, export earnings, exchange rates, exchange rate regimes, real effective exchange rate, nominal exchange rate, history of exchange rate, exchange rate appreciation, real effective exchange rates, effective exchange rate, exchange rate information, bilateral exchange rate, oil exporting country, oil exporter, nominal exchange rates, stable exchange rate, effective exchange rates, exporting country, real exchange rate appreciation, de facto exchange rate regimes, fixed nominal exchange rate, gas exporters
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Research Interests: Economics, International Economics, Economic Growth, Convergence, Capital Flows, and 15 moreEmerging Markets, Middle East, Gulf Cooperation Council, Emerging Market, Divergence, Decoupling, Oil Price, Business Cycle, GCC, North, Growth rate, Capital Market, Gross Domestic Product, Oil Price Shock, and growth linkages
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Research Interests: Economics, International Trade, Emerging Economies, Convergence, Capital Flows, and 14 moreEmerging Markets, Commonwealth of Independent States, Russia, Remittances, Social Science Research Network, Foreign direct investment and international spillovers, FDI spillovers, Divergence, Business Cycle, Remittance, Regional Growth, growth linkages, regional linkages, and regional spillovers
I. Introduction The critical role that women play in alleviating poverty and promoting development has been receiving increasing recognition. In developing countries, for example, women's role is critical in improving the... more
I. Introduction The critical role that women play in alleviating poverty and promoting development has been receiving increasing recognition. In developing countries, for example, women's role is critical in improving the nutri-tional and educational levels of their children. In addition, ...
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Oil funds have become increasingly popular in oil exporting countries during the recent surge in oil prices. However, the literature on the contribution is small, tends to focus narrowly on their fiscal benefits, and concludes that they... more
Oil funds have become increasingly popular in oil exporting countries during the recent surge in oil prices. However, the literature on the contribution is small, tends to focus narrowly on their fiscal benefits, and concludes that they are redundant of such funds - in other words, that well designed fiscal management and policy are adequate substitutes for oil funds. This paper argues that a broader focus is needed in judging the effectiveness of such funds. We test whether oil funds help reduce macroeconomic volatility. The econometric estimation results from a 30-year panel data set of 15 countries with and without oil funds suggest that oil funds are associated with reduced volatility of broad money and prices and lower inflation. However, there is a statistically weak negative association between the presence of an oil fund and volatility of the real exchange rate.
Research Interests:
Research Interests: Business, Actuarial Science, Economics, Economic Growth, Capital Markets, and 15 moreHuman Development, Financial Markets, Adverse Selection, Insurance, Cost of Capital, Income, General Insurance, Bonds, Insurance Policy, Interest Rate, Financial Intermediaries, Casualty Insurance, Innovation, Marginal Productivity, and Insurance Policies
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Research Interests: Business, Economic Growth, Migration, Convergence, Capital Flows, and 15 moreEmerging Markets, Middle East, Gulf Cooperation Council, Emerging Market, Divergence, Decoupling, Oil Price, Business Cycle, Capital Formation, GCC, Business Cycles, North, Capital Market, Gross Domestic Product, and growth linkages
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This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe... more
This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the authors and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. Oil funds have become increasingly popular in oil exporting countries during the recent surge in oil prices. However, the literature on the contribution is small, tends to focus narrowly on their fiscal benefits, and concludes that they are redundant of such funds—in other words, that well designed fiscal management and policy are adequate substitutes for oil funds. This paper argues that a broader focus is needed in judging the effectiveness of such funds. We test whether oil funds help reduce macroeconomic volatility. The econometric estimation results from a 30-year panel data set of 15 countries with and without oil funds suggest that oil funds are asso...
Research Interests:
The paper analyzes the determinants ofintra-household time use in Peru in 1994 and 1997. It tests whether sickness, unemployment, the provision of water and energy services and other factors affect the time use of adult males and females... more
The paper analyzes the determinants ofintra-household time use in Peru in 1994 and 1997. It tests whether sickness, unemployment, the provision of water and energy services and other factors affect the time use of adult males and females differently. The results show that women work up to one fifth more than men do, and unlike men, women in poor households work more than those in rich ones. Women's work is concentrated in housework and men's in income-generating activities. Sickness does not affect the work burdens of women or men, but it alters the composition whereby men work more in income-generating activities and women tend the sick. Men bear a greater burden of female unemployment than vice-versa. Improvements in the provision of water and energy services affect the time use of both men and women. Lastly, demographic and life-cycle variables are as important in explaining differences in time use as gender. Gender and the Allocation of Adult Time: Evidence from the Pe...
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Using panel data from Peru, the author investigates the determinants of the allocation of boys' and girls' time to schooling, housework, and income-generating activities. Specifically, she explores whether sickness, female headship,... more
Using panel data from Peru, the author investigates the determinants of the allocation of boys' and girls' time to schooling, housework, and income-generating activities. Specifically, she explores whether sickness, female headship, access to infrastructure, and employment of women in the household have different impacts on the time use of boys and girls. Girls mostly engage in housework, and boys mostly work outside the home. As a work activity, housework responds to economic incentives and constraints. The author's econometric findings suggest that changes in household welfare affect girls' work and schooling more than boys'. Even though boys' and girls' educational attainment rates are the same, girls' education responds more to changes in household welfare than does boys'. Similarly, girls are more likely than boys to adjust their home time in response to changes in adult female employment and to sickness of household members. Lack of access to energy infrastructure lowers the educational attainment of both boys and girls but has little affect on their labor. The traditional approach to the determinants of child labor and education excludes housework and may understate children's time use, particularly that of girls. It may therefore also overlook an important gender dimension of education policy. Safety nets that protect household incomes from employment shocks and sickness, and childcare programs that allow women to work, would reduce the likelihood of girls being pulled out of school.
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This paper is an attempt to return the discussion on social insurance and protection to its economic foundations. The paper uses a framework proposed by Ehrlich and Becker (1972) in the economics of insurance literature to first clarify... more
This paper is an attempt to return the discussion on social insurance and protection to its economic foundations. The paper uses a framework proposed by Ehrlich and Becker (1972) in the economics of insurance literature to first clarify the concepts and then take a comprehensive approach to insurance and protection. The approach starts with the choice problem of a representative individual facing risk, who chooses optimal levels of market insurance, self-insurance and self-protection. Market insurance and self-insurance transfer incomes between good states and bad (without changing the probabilities) while self-protection lowers the probability of the bad state (without affecting any transfers across states). Prices and costs are crucial in determining the optimal allocation. The paper illustrates the usefulness of the framework by considering the example of unemployment insurance (as market insurance), precautionary saving (as self-insurance) and investments in human capital (as se...
Research Interests: Business, Economics, Political Economy, Economic Growth, Capital Markets, and 15 moreHuman Development, Risk Management, Financial Markets, Adverse Selection, Insurance, Cost of Capital, Income, Bonds, Interest Rate, Financial Intermediaries, Innovation, Marginal Productivity, Market Failures, market prices, and Insurance Policies
In the past 25 years, exports have contributed strongly to growth and economic convergence in many small open economies. However, the Western Balkan (WB) region, consisting of small emerging market economies, has not fully availed itself... more
In the past 25 years, exports have contributed strongly to growth and economic convergence in many small open economies. However, the Western Balkan (WB) region, consisting of small emerging market economies, has not fully availed itself of this driver of growth and convergence. A lack of openness, reliance on low value products, and weak competitiveness largely explain the insignificant role of trade and exports in the region’s economic performance. This paper focuses on how the countries in the WB could lift exports through stronger integration with global value chains (GVCs) and broadening of services exports. The experience of countries that joined the European Union in or after 2004 shows that participation in GVCs can help small economies accelerate export and income growth. WB countries are not well integrated into Europe’s vibrant GVCs. Trade within the region is also limited—it tends to be bilateral and not cluster-like. Our analysis shows that by improving infrastructure a...
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This paper presents a synthesis of the empirical literature on intra household time use in developing countries. It discusses the importance of studying time allocated to various activities— market work for wages, work on the family... more
This paper presents a synthesis of the empirical literature on intra household time use in developing countries. It discusses the importance of studying time allocated to various activities— market work for wages, work on the family enterprise and different kinds of housework— from a policy standpoint. It then reviews the empirical literature on five main areas: a) how economic incentives affect intra-household time-use; b) whether access to basic services (water, energy etc.) have gender differentiated impacts on time-use; c) if idiosyncratic shocks such as changes in employment and health affect time use by gender; d) how agricultural commercialization alters the allocation of time and tasks by gender and e) whether child care is an area that needs policy attention. Last, the paper also reviews the empirical literature on the determinants of child time allocation. The findings of the review are that there are broad regional and rural-urban differences in the distribution of time b...
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December 2001Econometric analysis based on panel data from Peru finds that changes in household welfare affect girls� work and schooling more than boys�.Using panel data from Peru, Ilahi investigates the determinants of the allocation of... more
December 2001Econometric analysis based on panel data from Peru finds that changes in household welfare affect girls� work and schooling more than boys�.Using panel data from Peru, Ilahi investigates the determinants of the allocation of boys� and girls� time to schooling, housework, and income-generating activities. Specifically, she explores whether sickness, female headship, access to infrastructure, and employment of women in
Research Interests:
December 2001Analysis of time use data for Peru in 1994 and 1997 shows that women work up to a fifth more than men do and that women in poor households work more than those in rich ones, while there is no difference for men.Ilahi analyzes... more
December 2001Analysis of time use data for Peru in 1994 and 1997 shows that women work up to a fifth more than men do and that women in poor households work more than those in rich ones, while there is no difference for men.Ilahi analyzes the determinants of intra-household time use in Peru in 1994 and 1997. She tests whether
Research Interests:
Using panel data from Peru, the author investigates the determinants of the allocation of boys'and girls'time to schooling, housework, and income-generating activities. Specifically, she explores whether sickness, female headship,... more
Using panel data from Peru, the author investigates the determinants of the allocation of boys'and girls'time to schooling, housework, and income-generating activities. Specifically, she explores whether sickness, female headship, access to infrastructure, and employment of women in the household have different impacts on the time use of boys and girls. Girls mostly engage in housework, and boys mostly work outside
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Using unique retrospective data from Brazil, we explore the relationship between child labor and future adult earnings and poverty status. We find entry in the workforce before age 13 results in a reduction in adult wages of 13-20... more
Using unique retrospective data from Brazil, we explore the relationship between child labor and future adult earnings and poverty status. We find entry in the workforce before age 13 results in a reduction in adult wages of 13-20 percent, and an increase in the probability of being ...
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This paper tests the association between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries' financial and remittance outflows and regional growth in the Middle East. The findings, based on 35-year panel data, indicate that growth rates of real... more
This paper tests the association between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries' financial and remittance outflows and regional growth in the Middle East. The findings, based on 35-year panel data, indicate that growth rates of real GDP, private consumption and private investment in regional countries are strongly associated with remittance outflows from and the accumulation of financial surpluses in the GCC. Unlike in other developing and emerging market countries, growth in regional countries is not influenced by growth in the North, and is not export led. Linkages with the GCC could help sustain output growth in the regional countries in the face of the global economic slowdown and oil price shocks and could provide diversification gains to international capital seeking markets uncorrelated with Northern and emerging market countries.
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The paper places migration in the context of the extended family. It models informal loans between migrant and extended family for financing the costs of international labor migration. To show repayments to extended family is important;... more
The paper places migration in the context of the extended family. It models informal loans between migrant and extended family for financing the costs of international labor migration. To show repayments to extended family is important; we trace the effects of such loans on migrant savings and remittance to the immediate family. We employ a standard life-cycle approach, which predicts that the demand for extended family financing rises with migration costs and falls with pre-migration wealth. Remittance to the immediate family and savings retained abroad both fall with the pre-migration loan. Tests on survey data from Pakistan support the predictions.
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The authors use a unique data set on adult earnings in Brazil to study how child labor affects adult earnings through its impacts on work experience, years of schooling, and human capital attained per year of schooling. Adding up these... more
The authors use a unique data set on adult earnings in Brazil to study how child labor affects adult earnings through its impacts on work experience, years of schooling, and human capital attained per year of schooling. Adding up these positive and negative effects, their empirical findings suggest that adults who entered the labor market before age 13 earn 20