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Questions have recently been raised on the usefulness of output gaps (which define the cyclical position of a country) for policymaking purposes. Whilst these questions are important in raising awareness concerning the uncertainty which... more
Questions have recently been raised on the usefulness of output gaps (which define the cyclical position of a country) for policymaking purposes. Whilst these questions are important in raising awareness concerning the uncertainty which inevitably surrounds an unobservable variable such as the output gap, we believe that the discussions are sometimes neglectful of the empirical evidence with respect to the performance of specific business cycle indicators. The current article therefore assesses the empirical performance of the most widely used business cycle indicators in output gap analysis, with a significant proportion of the recent criticism on the economic plausibility of output gaps drawing heavily on specific inflation indicators (such as headline or core inflation) or on indicators of external imbalances. The empirical evidence in this article shows that these inflation and external balance indicators do not perform well as indicators of the cycle and consequently should be ...
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Research Interests: Economics, Long Term Care, Health Care, Productivity, Economic policy, and 15 moreEuropean Union, Public expenditure, Policy Change, Production economics, Demographic economics, Capital, Population Ageing, Labour Productivity, Capacity, Production Function, GDP Per Capita, Age Structure, Member States, GDP Growth, and Economic Papers
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Información del artículo La estimación y los usos del concepto de tasa de crecimineto potencial. Perspectiva general de la metodología de la función de producción que utiliza la comisión europea.
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This paper shows that the migration-induced re-allocation of labour resources across countries following the 2004 EU enlargement process has already brought sizeable economic benefits for the enlarged EU. In addition, the simulation... more
This paper shows that the migration-induced re-allocation of labour resources across countries following the 2004 EU enlargement process has already brought sizeable economic benefits for the enlarged EU. In addition, the simulation results suggest that once the present temporary restrictions on the flow of EU10 workers come to an end and the long-run migration potential of around 3 million is
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Summary for non-specialistsAs a result of the financial crisis, cyclically corrected indicators have taken on a greater degree of significance and are firmly back at the forefront of economic policy making. This heightened level of policy... more
Summary for non-specialistsAs a result of the financial crisis, cyclically corrected indicators have taken on a greater degree of significance and are firmly back at the forefront of economic policy making. This heightened level of policy interest not only reflects the anxiousness of policy makers to avoid the well-documented mistakes made in assessing the supply side impact of historical crises
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This paper provides a detailed description of the current version of the Ecofin Council approved production function (PF) methodology which is used for assessing both the productive capacity (i.e. potential output) and cyclical position... more
This paper provides a detailed description of the current version of the Ecofin Council approved production function (PF) methodology which is used for assessing both the productive capacity (i.e. potential output) and cyclical position (i.e. output gaps) of EU economies. Compared with the previous 2010 paper on the same topic, there have been two significant changes to the PF methodology, namely an overhaul of the NAWRU methodology & the introduction of a new T+10 methodology.
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Even with the growing internationalisation of production and the emerging concerns regarding the outsourcing phenomenon, the present study suggests that Europe has handled the post-1990 upsurge in worldwide trade integration in a... more
Even with the growing internationalisation of production and the emerging concerns regarding the outsourcing phenomenon, the present study suggests that Europe has handled the post-1990 upsurge in worldwide trade integration in a relatively successful way. The EU continues to retain its long-established title as the number 1 global trading power. In addition, the EU has been a net gainer in terms of the outsourcing part of the production relocation phenomenon, with an increase in its surplus on trade in intermediate goods and services over the period 1992 to 2003. However, despite this relatively reassuring assessment, the study also highlights a number of areas of concern, such as geographically with regard to the EU's growing trade deficits with Asia in general and technologically with the EU's exceptionally poor performance on the ICT front. Complacency must therefore be avoided and policy makers need to remain vigilant to a number of potential medium to long run challe...
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This paper shows that the migration-induced re-allocation of labour resources across countries following the 2004 EU enlargement process has already brought sizeable economic benefits for the enlarged EU. In addition, the simulation... more
This paper shows that the migration-induced re-allocation of labour resources across countries following the 2004 EU enlargement process has already brought sizeable economic benefits for the enlarged EU. In addition, the simulation results suggest that once the present temporary restrictions on the flow of EU10 workers come to an end and the long-run migration potential of around 3 million is eventually realised, the economic gains may easily match those from a further integration of the EU's goods and capital markets. At the level of the individual "sending" and "receiving" countries, the overall economic impact of migration is essentially determined by the speed of adjustment of labour and capital; by the skill characteristics of the migrant and native populations; and by the actual size of the migration flows.
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Abstract Since the mid-1990s the growth performance of the Euro Area as a whole, despite some good individual country performances, has failed to keep pace with developments elsewhere in the EU (including the UK) and also in the US. This... more
Abstract Since the mid-1990s the growth performance of the Euro Area as a whole, despite some good individual country performances, has failed to keep pace with developments elsewhere in the EU (including the UK) and also in the US. This is especially the case for ...
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The authors performed 3 studies to investigate the effects of social-cognitive variables on physical effort perseverance. Linear hierarchical regressions indicated that task-specific variables and perceived ability or competence accounted... more
The authors performed 3 studies to investigate the effects of social-cognitive variables on physical effort perseverance. Linear hierarchical regressions indicated that task-specific variables and perceived ability or competence accounted for the majority of perseverance variance in all 3 studies. The strongest single predictors in this cluster of variables were perceived competence, confidence, and readiness to invest effort. Physical self-health and ability accounted for a lesser portion of effort perseverance variance, with self-presentation confidence being the major single predictor in this cluster. The goal orientation cluster accounted for the least amount of effort perseverance variance. Together with task-specific confidence and the readiness to invest effort, as well as determination and commitment and competence, the findings support the contention that task-specific efficacious beliefs to a large extent determine persistence and endurance behaviors.
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Downloadable! This paper reviews the empirical literature on rates of return on R&D and interprets the economic significance of these estimates using a semi-endogenous growth model with a calibrated knowledge production sector. We analyse... more
Downloadable! This paper reviews the empirical literature on rates of return on R&D and interprets the economic significance of these estimates using a semi-endogenous growth model with a calibrated knowledge production sector. We analyse how R&D subsidies, a reduction ...
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Summary for non-specialistsAs a result of the financial crisis, cyclically corrected indicators have taken on a greater degree of significance and are firmly back at the forefront of economic policy making. This heightened level of policy... more
Summary for non-specialistsAs a result of the financial crisis, cyclically corrected indicators have taken on a greater degree of significance and are firmly back at the forefront of economic policy making. This heightened level of policy interest not only reflects the ...