Luke Nyakarahuka

BackgroundThe Ebolavirus is one of the deadliest viral pathogens which was first discovered in the year 1976 during two consecutive outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan. Six known strains have been documented. TheBundibugyo Ebolavirusin particular first emerged in the year 2007 in Uganda. This outbreak was constituted with 116 human cases and 39 laboratory confirmed deaths. After 5 years, it re-emerged and caused an epidemic for the first time in the Democratic Republic of Congo in the year 2012 as reported by the WHO. Here, 36 human cases with 13 laboratory confirmed deaths were registered. Despite several research studies conducted in the past, there is still scarcity of knowledge available on the genetic diversity ofBundibugyo Ebolavirus. We undertook a research project to provide insights into the unique variants ofBundibugyo Ebolavirusthat circulated in the two epidemics that occurred in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of CongoMaterials and MethodsThe Bioi...

The predisposing factors to and the prevalence of porcine cysticercosis have not been extensively studied in most parts of Uganda. Most reports have been abattoir survey based. This could have not been representative, since lingual screening was sometimes done by traders before purchasing pigs for abattoir slaughter. A survey was therefore conducted around Lake Kyoga where pig farming and trade had been popular. Lingual examination was carried out on 500 pigs sampled from seven districts. The prevalence of cysitercosis ranged from 4% to 12.9%. Predisposing factors to porcine cysticercosis were found to be: open-air defecation, ignorance of the communities about the disease, free range scavenging pig husbandry methods and no inspection of pigs or pork destined for the local market. Porcine cysticercosis, therefore paused a major public health risk in this region in Uganda. It was therefore found necessary to educate local communities about the risks posed and the risk factors attribu...

ABSTRACT. In 2016, an outbreak of Rift Valley fever was reported in the Kabale District in Uganda for the first time in 48 years. Three human cases were confirmed by polymerase chain reaction, and subsequent serological investigations revealed an overall IgG seropositivity of 13% in humans and 13% in animals. In response to this reemergence, we designed a countrywide survey to determine the seropositivity of anti-Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) IgG antibodies in livestock. Samples were collected from 27 districts and tested for RVFV anti-IgG antibodies. A total of 3,181 livestock samples were tested, of which 54.4% were cattle (1,732 of 3,181), 34.3% were goats (1,091 of 3,181), and 11.3% were sheep (358 of 3,181). Overall RVFV seropositivity was 6.9% (221 of 3,181). Seroprevalence was greater in cattle (10.7%) compared with goats (2.6%) and sheep (2.0%), among females (7.5%) compared with males (5.2%), and among adults (7.6%) compared with juveniles (4.9%) and nurslings (6.4%). Exot...

Uganda has reported eight outbreaks caused by filoviruses between 2000 to 2016, more than any other country in the world. We used species distribution modeling to predict where filovirus outbreaks are likely to occur in Uganda to help in epidemic preparedness and surveillance. The MaxEnt software, a machine learning modeling approach that uses presence-only data was used to establish filovirus - environmental relationships. Presence-only data for filovirus outbreaks were collected from the field and online sources. Environmental covariates from Africlim that have been downscaled to a nominal resolution of 1km x 1km were used. The final model gave the relative probability of the presence of filoviruses in the study area obtained from an average of 100 bootstrap runs. Model evaluation was carried out using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) plots. Maps were created using ArcGIS 10.3 mapping software. We showed that bats as potential reservoirs of filoviruses are distributed all o...

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by ...

In September 2014, a single fatal case of Marburg virus was identified in a healthcare worker in Kampala, Uganda. The source of infection was not identified, and no secondary cases were identified. We describe the rapid identification, laboratory diagnosis, and case investigation of the third Marburg virus outbreak in Uganda.

Various ready-to-eat (RTE) foods are becoming increasingly popular in the world and could be easily contaminated with various microorganisms including certain pathogens. A total of 342 RTE food samples, including 32 cooked meats, 123 vegetable salads, 26 boiled peanuts, 109 cold noodles, and 52 dried tofu samples, were collected in Shaanxi Province, People's Republic of China, during the period of July to October 2012 and screened for Staphylococcus aureus. All S. aureus isolates were characterized by antimicrobial susceptibility and PCR for detecting nine enterotoxin genes (sea to sej). Overall, 25.4% of samples were positive for S. aureus, including 10 (31.3%) cooked meats, 34 (27.6%) salad vegetables, 6 (23.1%) boiled peanuts, 20 (18.3%) cold noodles, and 17 (32.7%) dried tofu samples. Of the isolated S. aureus organisms, 98.4% were resistant to at least one antimicrobial agent and 58.6% to three or more antimicrobials. Resistance to erythromycin (78.1%) and tetracycline (40....

On March 9, 2016, a male butcher from Kabale District, Uganda, aged 45 years, reported to the Kabale Regional Referral Hospital with fever, fatigue, and headache associated with black tarry stools and bleeding from the nose. One day later, a student aged 16 years from a different sub-county in Kabale District developed similar symptoms and was admitted to the same hospital. The student also had a history of contact with livestock. Blood specimens collected from both patients were sent for testing for Marburg virus disease, Ebola virus disease, Rift Valley fever (RVF), and Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic fever at the Uganda Virus Research Institute, as part of the viral hemorrhagic fevers surveillance program. The Uganda Virus Research Institute serves as the national viral hemorrhagic fever reference laboratory and hosts the national surveillance program for viral hemorrhagic fevers, in collaboration with the CDC Viral Special Pathogens Branch and the Uganda Ministry of Health.

In transitioning from the Millennium Development Goal to the Sustainable Development Goal era, it is imperative to comprehensively assess progress toward reducing maternal mortality to identify areas of success, remaining challenges, and frame policy discussions. We aimed to quantify maternal mortality throughout the world by underlying cause and age from 1990 to 2015. We estimated maternal mortality at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2015 for ages 10-54 years by systematically compiling and processing all available data sources from 186 of 195 countries and territories, 11 of which were analysed at the subnational level. We quantified eight underlying causes of maternal death and four timing categories, improving estimation methods since GBD 2013 for adult all-cause mortality, HIV-related maternal mortality, and late maternal death. Secondary analyses then allowed systematic examination of drivers of trends, including the relation between maternal mortality a...

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015...

Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. Bill…

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental...

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally...

In October 2012, a cluster of illnesses and deaths was reported in Uganda and was confirmed to be an outbreak of Marburg virus disease (MVD). Patients meeting the case criteria were interviewed using a standard investigation form, and blood specimens were tested for evidence of acute or recent Marburg virus infection by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The total count of confirmed and probable MVD cases was 26, of which 15 (58%) were fatal. Four of 15 laboratory-confirmed cases (27%) were fatal. Case patients were located in 4 different districts in Uganda, although all chains of transmission originated in Ibanda District, and the earliest case detected had an onset in July 2012. No zoonotic exposures were identified. Symptoms significantly associated with being a MVD case included hiccups, anorexia, fatigue, vomiting, sore throat, and difficulty swallowing. Contact with a case patient and attending a funeral we...

Identification of pathogens associated with bovine mastitis is helpful in treatment and management decisions. However, such data from sub-Saharan Africa is scarce. Here we describe the distribution and antimicrobial susceptibility patterns of bacteria from cows with clinical mastitis in Kampala, Uganda. Due to high concern of zoonotic infections, isolates from milkmen are also described. Ninety seven milk samples from cows with clinical mastitis and 31 nasal swabs from milkmen were collected (one sample per cow/human). Fifty eight (60%) Gram-positive isolates namely Staphylococci (21), Enterococci (16), Streptococci (13), Lactococci (5), Micrococci (2) and Arcanobacteria (1) were detected in cows; only one grew Staphylococcus aureus. Furthermore, 24 (25%) coliforms namely Escherichia coli (12), Klebsiella oxytoca (5), Proteus vulgaris (2), Serratia (2), Citrobacter (1), Cedecea (1) and Leclercia (1) were identified. From humans, 24 Gram-positive bacteria grew, of which 11 were Staph...

The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than…

The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100 000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery. We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990–2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values. 292 982 (95% UI 261 017–327 792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376 034 (343 483–407 574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was −0·3% (–1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and −2·7% (–3·9 to −1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290–2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2–0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1–1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6–3·6) in Iceland. Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

"BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030."

ABSTRACT. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic disease of public health and economic importance. Uganda has reported sporadic outbreaks of RVF in both humans and animals across the country, especially in the southwestern part of the “cattle corridor” through an established viral hemorrhagic fever surveillance system. We report 52 human cases of laboratory-confirmed RVF from 2017 to 2020. The case fatality rate was 42%. Among those infected, 92% were males and 90% were adults (≥ 18 years). Clinical symptoms were characterized by fever (69%), unexplained bleeding (69%), headache (51%), abdominal pain (49%), and nausea and vomiting (46%). Most of the cases (95%) originated from central and western districts that are part of the cattle corridor of Uganda, where the main risk factor was direct contact with livestock (P = 0.009). Other predictors of RVF positivity were determined to be male gender (P = 0.001) and being a butcher (P = 0.04). Next-generation sequencing identified the predo...

Uganda reported cases of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) for the first time in almost 50 years in 2016, following an outbreak of Rift Valley fever (RVF) that caused four human infections, two of which resulted in death. Subsequent outbreak investigation serosurveys found high seroprevalence of IgG antibodies without evidence of acute infection or IgM antibodies, suggesting the possibility of undetected RVFV circulation prior to the outbreak. After the 2016 outbreak investigation, a serosurvey was conducted in 2017 among domesticated livestock herds across Uganda. Sampling data were incorporated into a geostatistical model to estimate RVF seroprevalence among cattle, sheep, and goats. Variables resulting in the best fit to RVF seroprevalence sampling data included annual variability in monthly precipitation and enhanced vegetation index, topographic wetness index, log human population density percent increase, and livestock species. Individual species RVF seroprevalence prediction map...

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu in August 2018. By June 2019, the outbreak had spread to 26 health zones in northeastern DRC, causing >2,000 reported cases and >1,000 deaths. On June 10, 2019, three members of a Congolese family with EVD-like symptoms traveled to western Uganda’s Kasese District to seek medical care. Shortly thereafter, the Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Surveillance and Laboratory Program (VHF program) at the Uganda Virus Research Institute (UVRI) confirmed that all three patients had EVD. The Ugandan Ministry of Health declared an outbreak of EVD in Uganda’s Kasese District, notified the World Health Organization, and initiated a rapid response to contain the outbreak. As part of this response, UVRI and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, with the support of Uganda’s Public Health Emergency Operations Center, the Kasese District Health Team, the Superintendent of Bwera...

Background Anthrax is a zoonotic infection caused by the bacteria Bacillus anthracis. Humans acquire cutaneous infection through contact with infected animals or animal products. On May 6, 2018, three cows suddenly died on a farm in Kiruhura District. Shortly afterwards, a sub-county chief in Kiruhura District received reports of humans with suspected cutaneous anthrax in the same district. The patients had reportedly participated in the butchery and consumption of meat from the dead cows. We investigated to determine the magnitude of the outbreak, identify exposures associated with illness, and suggest evidence-based control measures. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study among persons whose households received any of the cow meat. We defined a suspected human cutaneous anthrax case as new skin lesions (e.g., papule, vesicle, or eschar) in a resident of Kiruhura District from 1 to 26 May 2018. A confirmed case was a suspected case with a lesion testing positive for B. a...

Uganda established a domestic Viral Hemorrhagic Fever (VHF) testing capacity in 2010 in response to the increasing occurrence of filovirus outbreaks. In July 2018, the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) experienced its 10th Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak and for the duration of the outbreak, the Ugandan Ministry of Health (MOH) initiated a national EVD preparedness stance. Almost one year later, on 10th June 2019, three family members who had contracted EVD in the DRC crossed into Uganda to seek medical treatment. Samples were collected from all the suspected cases using internationally established biosafety protocols and submitted for VHF diagnostic testing at Uganda Virus Research Institute. All samples were initially tested by RT-PCR for ebolaviruses, marburgviruses, Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) virus. Four people were identified as being positive for Zaire ebolavirus, marking the first report of Zaire ebolavirus in Ugan...

Introduction: Anthrax is caused by the spore-forming, Gram-positive bacterium Bacillus anthracis. The aim of this study was to predict the potential distribution of B. anthracis in Tanzania and produce epidemiological evidence for the management of anthrax outbreaks in the country. Methods: The Maxent algorithm was used to predict areas at risk of anthrax outbreaks based on the occurrence and environmental data in Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions; the model was later transferred to predict the entire country. Seventy percent of the occurrence data were used to train the model, while 30% were used for model evaluation. Results: Four regions of northern Tanzania are predicted to have a high risk for anthrax outbreaks, while the southern and western regions had low-risk areas. Soil type (56.5%), soil pH (23.7%), and isothermally (10.4%) were the most important variables for the model prediction, and the most significant soil types were solonetz, fluvisols, and lithosols. Conclusions: A strong risk level across districts of the Tanzania mainland was identified in this study. A total of 18 districts in Tanzania Mainland are predicted to be at very high risk of an anthrax outbreak occurrence. These findings are important for policymakers to effectively mount targeted control measures for anthrax outbreaks in Tanzania

In Zambia, human anthrax cases often occur following cases of animal anthrax. Human behaviour has been implicated in this transmission. The objective of the study was to explore human behavioural patterns that may contribute to outbreaks of anthrax among affected communities. A mixed methods study was conducted in four districts of Zambia from November 2015 to February 2016. A cross sectional survey involving 1,127 respondents, six focus group discussions and seven key informant interviews with professional staff were conducted. Descriptive statistics on socio-demographic characteristics, awareness of anthrax, attitudes towards cattle vaccination and risk factors for anthrax and vaccination practices were run using STATA 12 for analysis. Overall, 88% of respondents heard about anthrax, 85.1% were aware that anthrax is transmitted by eating infected meat and 64.2% knew that animals and humans can be infected with anthrax. However, qualitative data suggested that awareness of anthrax ...

Back ground: Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID 19) in Uganda was first reported in a male traveler from Dubai on 21st March, 2020 shortly after WHO had announced the condition as a global pandemic. Timely laboratory diagnosis of COVID -19 for all samples from both symptomatic and asymptomatic patients was observed as key in containing the pandemic and breaking the chain of transmission. However, there was a challenge of limited resources required for testing SARS-COV-2 in low and middle income countries. To mitigate this, a study was conducted to evaluate a sample pooling strategy for COVI-19 using real time PCR. The cost implication and the turn around time of pooled sample testing versus individual sample testing were also compared.Methods: In this study, 1260 randomly selected samples submitted to Uganda Virus Research Institute for analysis were batched in pools of 5, 10, and 15. The pools were then extracted using a Qiagen kit. Both individual and pooled RNA were screened for th...

Background: Rabies a neglected tropical disease, mostly affecting poor and vulnerable populations living in remote rural areas in developing countries. The disease continues to pose a significant public health a threat with an estimated 59,000 dog-transmitted human deaths, of which an estimated 21,476 human deaths occur in Africa each year. The global strategy has been set by the quartite World Health Organization (WHO), the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Global Alliance for Rabies Control (GARC), aiming for "zero human deaths associated with dog transmitted rabies by 2030". African countries, however, face several challenges and there are still gaps in controlling rabies. The aim of this study review is to determine rabies prevalence, mortality and associated risk factors in both human population and animal population and to evaluate the presence or absence of integrated one health surv...

Background: Ebola and Marburg virus diseases are said to occur at a low prevalence, but are very severe diseases with high lethalities. The fatality rates reported in different outbreaks ranged from 24–100%. In addition, sero-surveys conducted have shown different seropositivity for both Ebola and Marburg viruses. We aimed to use a meta-analysis approach to estimate the case fatality and seroprevalence rates of these filoviruses, providing vital information for epidemic response and preparedness in countries affected by these diseases. Methods: Published literature was retrieved through a search of databases. Articles were included if they reported number of deaths, cases, and seropositivity. We further cross-referenced with ministries of health, WHO and CDC databases. The effect size was proportion represented by case fatality rate (CFR) and seroprevalence. Analysis was done using the metaprop command in STATA. Results: The weighted average CFR of Ebola virus disease was estimated ...

ObjectiveThe objective of this scoping review was to map the current situation and available evidence and gaps on rabies morbidity, mortality, integrated rabies surveillance programmes, and existing prevention and control strategies in Africa.MethodsWe conducted a systematic scoping review following the Joanna Briggs methodology and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for scoping reviews checklist. Medline, Embase, CINAHL (EBSCOHost), Scopus, Web of Science and rabies web conferences were used to search for peer-reviewed publications between January 1946 and May 2020. Two researchers reviewed the studies and extracted data based on author (year) and region, study design and data collection duration, participants/comparators, interventions, control conditions/exposures and outcomes (rabies mortality and morbidity) and key findings/gaps/challenges. The results were reported narratively using Arksey and O’Malley’s methodological framework.Result...

Background Identification of pathogens associated with bovine mastitis is helpful in treatment and management decisions. However, such data from sub-Saharan Africa is scarce. Here we describe the distribution and antimicrobial susceptibility patterns of bacteria from cows with clinical mastitis in Kampala, Uganda. Due to high concern of zoonotic infections, isolates from milkmen are also described. Methodology/Principal Findings Ninety seven milk samples from cows with clinical mastitis and 31 nasal swabs from milkmen were collected (one sample per cow/human). Fifty eight (60%) Gram-positive isolates namely Staphylococci (21), Enterococci (16), Streptococci (13), Lactococci (5), Micrococci (2) and Arcanobacteria (1) were detected in cows; only one grew Staphylococcus aureus. Furthermore, 24 (25%) coliforms namely Escherichia coli (12), Klebsiella oxytoca (5), Proteus vulgaris (2), Serratia (2), Citrobacter (1), Cedecea (1) and Leclercia (1) were identified. From humans, 24 Gram-posi...

Uganda, known as “the pearl of Africa,” is richly endowed by nature, but it comes at a cost. The fertile and attractive landscapes, abundant water, and optimal temperature not only sustain the Ugandan crop and livestock industries but also ensure a constant abundance of pathogens and parasites affecting humans and animals. These features cause a constant shift of environmental frontiers compounded by the explosive population growth experienced in the country and an increasingly porous human–animal interface. These shifts occur at such a tremendous pace that the holes created at this interface are becoming harder to patch. Pathogens like Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (BTB), exploit these constant changes and cross species barriers to establish new wildlife and domestic species disease reservoirs. Because of these events, M. bovis has now become a multi-host, endemic pathogen, and as zoonotic TB it became a serious public health threat in Uganda. The ...

Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) is endemic in Uganda, yet its epidemiology remains largely uncharacterized. To better understand its occurrence within Uganda, case reports of patients hospitalized with CCHF between 2013 and 2019 were reviewed. Further, genome sequences of CCHF-positive RNA obtained during this period were determined for phylogenetic comparisons. We found that a total of 32 cases (75% males; CFR, 31.2%), aged between 9 to 68 years, were reported during the study period. Most cases were detected during July to December of each outbreak year (81.2%; P < 0.01) and were located along the “cattle corridor” (68.7%, P = 0.03). The most common presenting symptoms were fever (93.8%), hemorrhage (81.3%), headache (78.1%), fatigue (68.8%), vomiting (68.8%), and myalgia (65.6%). In five patients for whom hematological data were available, varied abnormalities were observed including thrombocytopenia, leukopenia, anemia, lymphopenia, lymphocytosis, polycythemia, and mic...