Cliometrics
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Recent papers in Cliometrics
In the paper, we express some doubts about one of the assumptions of Robert Carneiro’s model on state (and chiefdom) formation, namely the role of circumscription. In our opinion, the main flaw of Carneiro’s original theory of state... more
Highlighting the events of Egyptian Revolution 2011, various massmedia tried to explain what had caused the riots. Most explanations followed the same pattern, blaming economic stagnation, poverty, inequality, corruption and... more
We believe that one of the most important recent findings in the study of the long-term dynamic social processes was the discovery of the political-demographic cycles as a basic feature of complex agrarian systems' dynamics.
The paper is devoted to the study of sex and age structure of the Old Believed population of Kharkiv province. The influence of the features of legal status of Old Believers and the changes of statistics on the sex ratio among registered... more
The article analyzes the specifics of urbanization dynamics in Egypt, which is noteworthy for a number of reasons. First, there was a shift from the logistic trend in the 1970s, and the share of urban population stopped growing. The UN... more
Авторы теории последовательности человеческого развития Р. Инглхарт и К. Вельцель утверждают, что модернизация является одним из основных процессов, формирующих ценностные установки населения. В статье исследуется соотношение ценностей и... more
It is not surprising that Mubarak's administration " overlooked " the social explosion. Indeed, statistical data righteously claimed that the country was developing very successfully. Economic growth rates were high (even in the crisis... more
Oyun teorisinin tarih biliminde uygulanmasını ve analizini içeren bu araştırmada amaç, dış politika tarihi, siyasi tarih ve sosyal tarih gibi alanlarda olay – olgu ilişkisini ve olaylardaki sapmaları tespit etmektir. Kısaca, tarihsel... more
The authors suggest to view the origins of Islam against the background of the 6th century AD Arabian socio-ecological crisis whose model is specified in the paper through the study of cli-matological, seismological, volcanological and... more
The authors quantitatively analyse the long-term dynamics of technological progress from 40,000 BCE and offer projections through the 22nd century. We provide one method to measure technological progress over that time period, using a... more
У монографії на прикладі старообрядницьких общин Харківщини прослідковано вплив релігійних уявлень на характер об’єднання віруючих у соціальні спільноти різних масштабів, показані закономірності трансформації цих спільнот під впливом... more
От издателя В монографии демонстрируется возможность глубокой исторической реконструкции эволюции мифологических систем на основе системного анализа фольклорно-мифологических и генетических данных. Особое внимание уделяется происхождению... more
Еремеев Павел Викторович. Современное состояние и перспективы развития исторической информатики: по результатам XIV конференции Ассоциации «История и компьютер». В статье рассматриваются современные тенденции и перспективы развития... more
Source: Актуальные проблемы глобальных исследований: ценности глобального мира / под ред. И.В. Ильина. – М., МООСИПНН Н.Д. Кондратьева, 2018. C. 92-118. Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel, the authors of the Human Development Sequence... more
Reviews: Bonifay, M. 2016. Journal of Roman Archaeology 29: 880-85; Stone, D.L. 2016. American Journal of Archaeology (online) 120.4 (October); McCarty, M. M. 2016. Bryn Mawr Classical Review (2016.04.36). This study attempts to evaluate... more
Human society is a complex nonequilibrium system that changes and develops constantly. Complexity, multivariability, and contradictoriness of social evolution lead researchers to a logical conclusion that any simplification, reduction, or... more
The 20th century revolutionary process had a big impact on the World System and significantly changed its entire configuration. However, there are essential gaps in terms of theoretical approaches, in particular, in terms of the typology... more
Human society is a complex nonequilibrium system that changes and develops constantly. Complexity, multivariability, and contradictoriness of social evolution lead researchers to a logical conclusion that any simplification, reduction, or... more
Human society is a complex nonequilibrium system that changes and develops constantly. Complexity, multivariability, and contradictions of social evolution lead researchers to a logical conclusion that any simplification, reduction, or... more
This article offers a mathematical model describing the influence of one of the major factors of the World System's macrodynamics throughout most of its history (since the 'urban revolution')-the interaction between civilizations and... more
Human society is a complex nonequilibrium system that changes and develops constantly. Complexity, multivariability, and contradictions of social evolution lead researchers to a logical conclusion that any simplification, reduction, or... more
Extremely simple mathematical models are shown to be able to account for 99.2–99.91 per cent of all the variation in economic and demographic macrodynamics of the world for almost two millennia of its history. In this article we show that... more
The idea that in the near future we should expect “the Singularity” has become quite popular recently, primarily thanks to the activities of Google technical director in the field of machine training Raymond Kurzweil and his book The... more
This article offers a comparison of sociopolitical instability forecasting systems. It compares systematically their efficiency by correlating their predictions for particular years with actual levels of destabilization in the respective... more
Demographic changes associated with the transformation from traditional to advanced economies are the basis for many of today's theories of violent and non-violent protest formation. Both levels of urbanization and the size of the "youth... more
Представление о том, что в ближайшее время нас ждет некая «Сингулярность», стало в последнее время достаточно популярным, прежде всего благодаря деятельности технического директора Google в области технического обучения Рэймонда Курцвейла... more
This article analyzes the hierarchy of factors in the development of crisis trends in a consolidated democracy using the example of the United States of America. The authors assess the surge of political instability in the United States,... more
Abstract: The authors suggest to view the origins of Islam against the background of the 6th century AD Arabian socio-ecological crisis whose model is specified in the paper through the study of clima-tological, seismological,... more
Among many influences that the pandemic has and will have on society and the World System as a whole, one of the most important is the acceleration of the start of a new technological wave and a new technological paradigm in the near... more
Our article draws attention to a crucial factor frequently omitted from the global development agenda, namely the explosive population growth inevitably expected in Tropical Africa in the nearest decades as a result of the region's... more
The spatial distribution of folklore-mythological motifs is shown to correlate rather tightly with the distribution of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and Y-chromosome (NRY) haplogroups. The analysis of spatial distribution of folklore... more
The hypothesis that population pressure causes increased warfare has been recently criticized on the empirical grounds. Both studies focusing on specific historical societies and analyses of cross-cultural data fail to find positive... more