Great Powers

"Words and Phrases, Unchanged for Centuries.

Containing a rich glossary and in excess of 300 words and phrases, the texts demonstrate the strength of the Macedonian language through preservation.

Following is a comparison of sentences between the texts and the Macedonian
dialect of Bitola as spoken today.

16th cent., Kostur dialect
21st cent., Bitola dialect

Gospodine, brate, da si zdrav, da si prost, ostavi ni da spime, ela da jame, i da pieme, dol da pojdime, da rabotime.
Gospodine, brate, da si zdrav, da si prost, ostai ne da spiame, ela da jaime, i da piame, dolu da pojdime, da rabotime.

Imate hljap-o da kupime, imate vino da kupime, ot koja strana da pojdime vo
Bogasko.
Imate lep da kupime, imate vino da kupime, od koja strana da pojdime vo
Bogatsko.

As can be clearly noticed, most of the vocabulary and grammar is identical.
All of the elements that would later be required to rejuvinate the Macedonian people as they were shaking off centuries of subjugation, were present during this period. The language of the people had solidified, a tradition of heraldry and symbolism had developed which incorporated the emblem of a rapant lion and historical figures from Macedonia's past, and the churches continued preserve the local customs and serve as cultural centres for the population. The significance of all these elements together cannot be overstated, the language of medieval Macedonia is the same as the language of the Macedonians today. Unfortunately, only a small portion of the larger amount of Macedonian literature from the Middle Ages has survived, much of it being looted and destroyed by Greek-speaking officials, clerics and teachers. Nevertheless, Macedonian as a language reached its current form centuries before the creation of the Balkan states in the 19th and 20th centuries. "

The article aims to develop an analytical model for foreign policy experts in order to gain a better understanding of Russian-U.S. relations. The content of Russian-U.S. relations is categorized into practical and ideational agendas. This article argues that the dynamics of interaction between these two coexisting agendas is crucial for understanding the dynamics of Russian-U.S. relations. Descriptive analysis is used to study, categorize, and explain such dynamics. The paper also includes an analysis of the correlation between the practical and ideational agendas. The proposed approach helps to better understand how the unique conceptual landscape of Russian-U.S. relations influences their practical domain. This approach can be used as a separate explanatory model or in combination with explanatory models of major theories.

Sino-Russian relations is largely perceived in much of the West as an 'entente' or an 'axis of authoritarians' that threatens the West and the current global order. This tendency to lump China and Russia together raises two questions that are addressed in this analysis: (1) Is this practice replicated in the Arab countries of the Middle East and North Africa? (2) Are perceptions about China and Russia shared by MENA elites and the public? We answer these questions by examining polling data across MENA and within particular states.

When and why do powerful countries seek to enact major changes to international order, the broad set of rules that condition behavior in world politics? This question is particularly important today, as Donald Trump's apparent disregard for the liberal international order and uncertainty over what China might seek to replace it with mean that queries about great power motives vis-à-vis order will remain at the forefront of debates over the future of world politics. In seeking to explain this phenomenon, prior studies have focused on the consensus-driven and inclusive origins of international orders. By contrast, I argue in this book that the propelling motivation for great power order building at important historical junctures has most often been exclusionary, centered around combatting other actors rather than cooperatively engaging with them. My core contention is that dominant actors pursue fundamental changes to order only when they perceive a major new threat on the horizon, a threat to their security or to their enduring primacy. When these actors-the great powers of world politics-seek to enact fundamentally new order principles, they do so for the purpose of targeting this perceived threat, be it another powerful state, a contrary alliance or a foreboding ideological movement. The goal of order building, then, is weakening, opposing and above all excluding that threatening entity from amassing further influence in world politics. Far from falling outside the bounds of traditional statecraft, order building is, to paraphrase Clausewitz, the continuation of power politics by other means.

Which states possess the material capacity to destroy humanity? This paper develops a new framework for analysis of the "great powers" and the "structure" (or "polarity") of the system of international security, based on the distribution of the material capabilities that threaten humankind--or the "forces of total destruction." It argues that a state is a great power if it possesses national capabilities that constitute an existential threat to humanity. The empirical analysis measures the leading states in the international system--China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States--against this standard for great power status with respect to three anthropogenic existential threats to humanity: nuclear war, climate change, and artificial intelligence. It finds that three states--China, Russia, and the United States--are great powers, and therefore the system is multipolar. It concludes with a discussion of the theoretical and practical implications of the analysis for our understanding of great power status, including the unequal power and differential responsibility of the great powers and the possibilities for "great power management" of existential threats in the twenty-first century.

The competing theories of state recognition and their failings actively demonstrate that recognition of a state does not have any normative content per se, but rather, that the rules of state recognition, although legal rules, are legal vehicles for political choices. We have the dilemma of concurrently wanting the right cases to result in independent states while prohibiting the wrong ones from becoming so, and so we sail between political choices, using the language of law. The state is neither truly free to recognize another entity nor entirely bound. Differing cases require different legal criteria and different legal results. This flexibility in state recognition theory though, while depriving the act of any inherent legal meaning, has value in its utility for establishing lawful relationships.

This paper will argue that the reason we find it difficult to resolve the controversy over state recognition theory is because the international legal system translates political controversies into legal questions that can then be addressed through legal means. Legal actors, by announcing preference for one side of the question, often reveal certain legal and moral choices they are making about the nature of the state and the legitimacy of the international legal system - law and politics. In the area of state recognition, no theory of recognition has extinguished competition because no political choice has gained universal acceptance. The predominant political choice is most frequently deliberate indeterminacy, a co-existence of mutually opposing arguments. This indeterminacy is most likely deliberate because it permits the underlying rationale for the legal actor’s policies to change and evolve to suit the situation.

The following presentation provides an analysis of the article under the same name published by Stratfor Global Intelligence in 2012. It mainly outlines eight hypotheses of the article, discusses the author's arguments, analyzes the relevancy of examples, and finally, provides additional data for making the discussion more precise.

Este trabalho busca analisar a Guerra da Coreia, sua relação com o impasse quanto à implementação dos mísseis THAAD e a Cúpula de Cingapura de 2018, tentando entender, ainda, como esses eventos se relacionam às grandes potências desde sua criação, a perpetuação e possível resolução do conflito. Abstract This essay seeks to analyse The Korean War, its relation to the THAAD dispute and the 2018 Singapore Summit and what is the world's great powers part in the creation, perpetuation and possible resolution of the conflict.

Over the last years there is a growing body of literature over the role of states in cyberspace, over the need for the westphalian state system to adjust in a globalised and borderless world. The purpose of this article is to examine the ways in which a transition from the westphalian state system to a cyber-westphalian one, can take place. The westphalian state system is based on state sovereignty and borders, so the question that inevitably arises is whether states can define virtual borders and eventually construct an international legal framework that determines state sovereignty in cyberspace. A closer look at recent developments like the Chinese attempt to build their own internal internet, the role of internet filters in authoritarian regimes, the creation of the US Cyber Command and the debate for a global cyber-treaty, mark that the transition is already underway.

Scholars of international political economy in the 1970s explored the relationship among a dominant power, leadership, and openness. The discussion soon centered on the concept of hegemony, meaning a situation in which a single state exercises leadership in creating and maintaining the fundamental rules of the international system. The scholarly arguments that ensued focused on the rationale for, and durability of, hegemony, and seemed relevant because of a shared assumption that U.S. dominance, so strong during the quarter-century after World War II, was declining. However, the debate was premised on a shared but incorrect empirical perception that American hegemony was declining. When similar questions arose again at the end of the 20th century, the terminology used was less that of hegemony than of unipolarity and hierarchy, and the key question was whether exercising continuing leadership would be so costly to the hegemon that its decline would be generated by its leadership. The issues of hegemony raised in this literature have taken on renewed relevance with the election of Donald J. Trump as President of the United States.

In European history, “Eastern Question” was the term used to signify the diplomatic and political difficulties that were thought to arise after the possible disintegration of the Ottoman Empire. The term did not apply to a particular conflict, but covered a number of diplomatic, military, and political issues rised during the eighteenth, nineteenth, and twentieth centuries particularly with regard to the future of the European territories of the Ottoman Empire.

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MEMOIRS OF THE HUNGARIAN DIPLOMAT SÁNDOR KISS-NEMESKÉRI OF BULGARIA AND THE BULGARIANS

P. Peykovska

(Summary)

The Hungarian diplomat S. Kiss-Nemeskéri is one the forgotten personalities of the interwar period who had left a significant mark although he had not been able to play a decisive role in the international politics. He had worked in Bulgária for more than 10 years: with a short interruption from 1912 when he was appointed an economy expert in Sofia, to 1929 when he had already the Statute of a Hungárián royal diplomatic agent. From that time on till 1937 he had been a diplomatic agent first in Stockholm, then in Helsinki being accredited at the same time to the three Baltic countries of Estonia, Lithuania and Lat Via. Being unusually colourful and all-round man, S. Kiss published at the end of the 1930-es and at the beginning of the 1940-es his memoirs of his diplomatic service in several volumes where his impressions of Bulgária occupied a considerable place. His book of memoirs titled “In a hurry. From the Memoirs of a Hungárian Diplomat” and published in Budapest in 1940, is the most interesting one from a historical point of view. A part of those memoirs is published here, although in a concise form, with a view to its importance for the Bulgárián history. The memoirs reveal the history of Austro-Hungarian-Bulgarian diplomatic relations as well as the Hungarian-Bulgarian ones of the pe¬riod from 1912 to 1929. They reflect his impressions of the meetings with Alexander Stamboliiski and King Boris, of the public life in Bulgária in the 1920-es and particularly of the Reparations’ committees, of the assault at the „Sveta Nedelya” Cathedral, of the presence of the Russian emigrants in Bulgária, of some episodes of the Macedonian movement. The  memoirs are being published in Bulgárián for the first time.

ВОСПОМИНАНИЯ ВЕНГЕРСКОГО ДИПЛОМАТА ШАНДОРА КИША-НЕМЕШКЕЙРИ О БОЛГАРИИ И О БОЛГАРАХ

П. Пейковска

(Резюме)

Венгерский дипломат Шандор Киш-Немешкейри является одной из забытых личностей межвоенного периода, которые хотя и не имевшие решающую роль в международной политике, оставили свой значительный след. Он работал в Болга¬рии более десятилетия: с 1912 г., когда был назначен экономическим экспертом в Софии, с небольшими перерывами до 1929 г., когда уже пользовался статутом вен¬герского королевского дипломатического агента. После этого, до 1937 г. работал дипломатическим агентом сначала в Стокгольме, потом в Хельзинки, где являлся одновременно аккредитованным при трех балтийских странах Естонин, Литвы и Латвии. Чрезвычайно колоритный и всесторонне развитый человек, в конце 30-х и начале 40-х годов века Шандор Киш издает в нескольких книгах свои мемуары о времени дипломатической работы, где значительное место находят его впечатле¬ния о Болгарии. С исторической точки зрения наибольший интерес представляет его мемуарная книга „Наспех. Из воспоминаний одного венгерского дипло-мата”, вышедшая в Будапеште в 1940 г.
В настоящей публикации предлагаем в сокращенном виде часть этих воспо¬минаний ввиду их исторической значимости дли болгарской истории. Они являются своеобразной историей австро-венгерско-болгарских и венгерско-болгарских диплома¬тических взаимоотношений за период 1912-1929 гг. В частности мемуары отражают впечатления Ш. Киша со встречи с Александром Стамболийским и царем Борисом, об общественной жизни у нас в 20-х годах века - комиссии по репарациям, поку¬шение в церкви Св. Недели, присутствие русских иммигрантов, моменты македон¬ского  движения. Мемуары выходят в свет впервые на болгарском языке.
""""

The U.S. and U.K. officials and media have long been warning against the “imminent” Russian invasion of Ukraine. Whatever the prospects of such an invasion are, it also raises an important question about the character of the Russian political regime and how the invasion may change it.

Let us hypothetically assume, as many have, that Russia can defeat the Ukrainian army and occupy a large part of Ukraine (especially the southeastern and central regions). The question is what to do with this part of Ukraine. The problem is not the unlikely massive Ukrainian guerrilla war against the Russian army. The problem is that the Russian state, such as it is now, has little to offer Ukrainians as well as to the world.

The geopolitics within the weak state Nepal is strategically important for the great powers (USA, China and India) in recent developments of International Relations. The dramatic international developments in the South-East Asia and the involvement of great powers in Nepal for the specific issue of Tibetans are the most penetrating questions for the sovereignty of Nepal. This research aims to analyze the roles and interests of great powers and its consequences in the sovereignty of Nepal through offensive- neo realism perspective. This paper mainly uses deductive (top-down) method which begins with the theory then hypothesis, observation and finally confirmation. The geopolitics in Nepal among the great powers is relevant exercises to compete for their hegemonic position in the system or at least in the regional level. Further, this is an interesting case to explain the challenges of weak state surrounded by powerful actors as well as offensive nature of possible hegemonic actors in the international system.

The emergence of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) owed much to the need to enhance the UN's ability to act forcibly in the face of the most extreme cases of gross human suffering. Too often in the past such responses were emasculated or thwarted by the necessity to successfully navigate the UN Charter's prescriptions over the use of force, by the unwillingness of member states to provide military forces, or by a combination of the two. In accepting that certain types of inhuman activity can lead to the legitimate use of force within the UN Charter framework, the adoption of R2P appeared to resolve at least some of these problems, and as such it offered hope to those wishing to see the UN adopt a more assertive response to the grossest of human rights abuses. But, using stalemate over Syria as its backdrop, this article demonstrates the dubiousness of the claim that such a normative development can ever trump the hard edged political and strategic factors which determine when states will accept and/or participate in the use of force, and it suggests a radical solution to the dangers inherent in R2P's intimate association with military intervention.

My theoretical contribution to the debate on China's rise and the increasing assertiveness under Xi Jinping.

Also features a critique of Michael Pillsbury’s thesis as developed in the book "The One-Hundred Year Marathon" regarding the assertion that China is conducting a full-scale effort (across all elements of power to include the military) to assert dominance over the United States and Western powers and achieve the status of unipolar hegemonic power of the globe.

By identifying 'periods of opportunity' (机遇期) within Chinese foreign policy-making, this article argues that we can expect a greater urgency on the part of China.

Manastır şehri hem Türk tarihi hem de Balkan tarihi açısından oldukça önemli bir şehir olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Şehre XIV. yy’da hâkim olan Türkler şehrin sosyal, kültürel ve ekonomik gelişiminde etkin roller oynamışlardır. Bu çerçevede Manastır ve çevresinde birçok eserler bırakan Türkler, şehrin basın-yayın hayatında da etkili olmuşlardır. Manastır’da yayınlanan birçok gazete ve dergi arasında İttihat ve Terakki Cemiyeti’nin bir yayın organı olarak ön plana çıkan gazetelerden birisi olması sebebiyle, biz de bu araştırmamızda Neyyir-i Hakikat Gazetesini ele aldık. Yayınlanmış olduğu 1324, 1325 ve 1326 yıllarının önemli siyasi ve sosyal olaylarına tanıklık eden gazete, taşıdığı tarihsel materyal açısından oldukça zengindir. Müdir-i Mesul: Vatan, Sahib-i İmtiyaz: Evlad-ı Vatan başlıkları ile yayımlanan Neyyir-i Hakikat Gazetesi toplam 317 sayı yayımlanmıştır. Bayezid Kütüphanesi Hakkı Tarık Us koleksiyonu ve Ankara Milli Kütüphane koleksiyonlarında tespit ettiğimiz sayılar dairesinde; öncelikle gazetenin tanıtımı, yayın politikası, yazarları ve şahit olduğu önemli tarihi olaylar karşısındaki tutumunu yansıtmaya çalışacağız.
Bitola, located both in terms of Turkish History and the History of the Balcans is a very important city. The Ottoman Turks, who dominate the city in XIV. century till 1912, have played active roles in social, cultural and economic development of Bitola. İn this context, Turks, who left also many works around Bitola, influenced life of the citys’s press.
İn this study we have discussed Neyyir-i Hakikat because it is one of the prominent journal of Union and Progress among many newspapers and magazines published in Macedonia.
Neyyir-i Hakikat, which was published in 1908, 1909, 1910 and 1911 that witnessed the major political and social events, has rich historical material. The journal was published with the titles that “Responsible Manager: Homeland, Grantee: Son of Homeland. We do not know exactly how many numbers of the newspaper published so that within the framework of the number that we found in collections of Ankara National Library, firstly try to reflect history of journal, it’s presentation, publication policy, authors and attitude towards the witnessed important events

Description: This seminar course introduces students to the theory and practice of grand strategy, understood as a great design or idea that orders and guides what a state does in interactions with the other actors, whether states or non-states in the international system. Grand strategy is tailored to the state, which means that different kinds of states will pursue various grand strategies. Accordingly, this course surveys the types of grand strategy available to states. First, it expounds on the main tenets of each grand strategy; and then it provides a historical illustration of the grand strategy in action. This exercise prepares students for the tasks of assessing and recommending grand strategy for states in present world politics settings. The states discussed in this course are the great powers. This does not mean that states that are not great powers cannot have grand strategies. But the great powers are the most important and impactful states. Therefore, it stands to reason that any examination of grand strategy archetypes has to begin with the study of the grand strategies they employ. In this respect, the course will cover a large spectrum of great power grand strategic behavior over the last four centuries, including the most significant strategists and most influential states. There are three kinds of great powers: rising powers, status quo powers, and declining powers. Rising powers seek to gain a seat or to improve considerably their position at the great power table. Status quo powers seek to conserve and moderately improve their current position among great powers. Declining powers aim at a minimum to prevent and limit further losses, while at a maximum to recover what they have lost. Hence, rising, status quo, and declining great powers follow different grand strategies. PAGE 15

This article examines recent UN Security Council deliberations over events in Libya and Syria and in particular assesses the extent to which Council members sought to justify their positions and voting behaviour by reference to the ‘Responsibility to Protect’ (R2P).  It shows how limited invocations of R2P were with regard to Libya, before proceeding to demonstrate how, somewhat paradoxically, R2P-sceptics such as Russia and China subsequently drew upon concerns over the manner in which NATO implemented its UN-mandate in Libya to cast doubts over the R2P during debates over Syria.  Contemplating the implications of the Libyan and Syrian cases for the future of R2P, the article concludes by arguing that the concept’s international standing can best be preserved through the excision of its most coercive elements; R2P should be reconstituted as a standard of acceptable sovereign behaviour and a mechanism geared towards the provision of international guidance and support, while decisions over coercive military intervention, inevitably infused with considerations of strategic interest, should be made outside the R2P framework.

Description in LRIL:

The following five papers arise from an ‘Author-Meets-Readers’ event on Anne Orford’s International Authority and the Responsibility to Protect (Cambridge UP, 2011) held at the University of Sydney Law School on 13 December 2012.  The first four papers respond to the text, focusing in turn on Dag Hammarskjo¨ld’s reaction to the Suez Crisis, and the relevance to the book of, respectively, Carl Schmitt, Michel Foucault and Pierre Bourdieu. The fifth essay is Anne Orford’s rejoinder, comprising a meditation on international legal method. The event was organised by Fleur Johns for the Sydney Centre for International Law and all authors wish to record their thanks to Associate Professor Johns for organising the event. The foci adopted in the various papers were chosen not to converge on a particular reading or concept but in order to capture the theoretical and historical diversity of the book.

Neoliberal institutionalists frequently see regional organisations such as the EU, ASEAN or the EAS as expressions of the desire for economic integration, political cooperation and the resolution of collective action problems. In this formulation , the creation of inclusive regional identities is seen as one of the potentially desirable consequences of institution-building. The Indo-Pacific, by contrast, has since its inception been driven by a rather old-fashioned concern with the balance of power in a part of the world in which China is once again playing a dominant and destabilising role. We argue that realists still have much to tell us about the material forces that are not only transforming the region-however, it is defined-but also which underpin the rise to prominence of the Indo-Pacific idea in particular. The so-called 'Quad' countries are both the main drivers of the Indo-Pacific concept and a clear manifestation of its underlying goals and principles. In such circumstances, we argue, the Indo-Pacific is unlikely to reproduce even the rather modest levels of institutionalisation achieved by other organisations, primarily because this vision of the region is one that is not intended to address the sorts of collective action problems neoliberal institutionalists highlight. On the contrary, the Indo-Pacific rescales the region to include India and strategically aligns certain regional states in an old-fashioned quasi-alliance to the strategic threat posed by China.

Since the un's 2005 adoption of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) the five permanent members (P5) of the organisation's Security Council have been burdened with a special dual responsibility, entailing a special responsibility to maintain international peace and security, and a special responsibility to assist those imperilled by the mass atrocity crimes of their home state. The tensions which can arise within this dual responsibility is a largely under-explored aspect of the R2P literature. But consideration of it helps explain why, despite differing views over how best to balance individual and state rights, at times accentuated by clashing interests, the P5 have nevertheless found common R2P ground, most particularly in their largely concerted opposition to the idea of a 'responsibility not to veto' R2P-related resolutions within the Council.