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Guide: Prof. Prasad Modak

    Tausif (09335009)
                            1
Outline of presentation
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                          2
Increasing energy deficit

              10                                                                     12.0%
x 100000 MU




              9
                                                                                     10.0%
              8
              7
                                                                                     8.0%
              6
              5                                                                      6.0%
              4
                                                                                     4.0%
              3
              2
                                                                                     2.0%
              1
              0                                                                      0.0%
              1997-98   1999-00    2001-02   2003-04   2005-06   2007-08   2009-10




                                  Source : (Ministry of Power, 2012)
                                                                                             3
Electricity demand projections
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                                 4

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AES library.corporate
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The AES Corporation is a global power company that generates and distributes electricity. It has a diverse portfolio of over 42,000 MW of generation capacity across 5 continents. In 2008, AES reported $16 billion in revenue and over $35 billion in total assets. It owns and operates 127 generation facilities and manages 5 more, with 25 additional facilities under construction.

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Renewable Potential
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                      5
Renewable potential
             12
x 10000 MW




             10
             8
             6
             4
             2
             0




                  Source : (Ministry of Power, 2012)
                                                       6
Energy Access Rural
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                      7
Distributed Renewable Energy
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Development Strategy
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Objectives
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Motivation
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Central Subsidies




     Source : (Table 2-1)
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                     13
Source : (The Energy and Mining Sector Board, 2008)
                                                      14
Framework
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     Resources
     Demand
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Process flow of development




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1. Electricity Demand estimation and
   projection module
2. Renewable energy technologies selection
   and sizing module
3. Project financing module
4. Downstream productive activities
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5. Sensitivity analysis module



                                             17
Two cases
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2. A sustainable energy supply scenario to
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                                             18
Demand module : domestic




                           19
Demand module: irrigation




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                 21
Demand module: social




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Demand : Seasonal variation




                              23
Technology configuration




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Financial case 1




                   25
26
Financial case 2




                   27
Sensitivity module

                                                        2           1            3
    Input parameter                                  -5% base                  5%
  1 Initial costs                             46,24,226     4867607     51,10,987 Rs
  2 Annual costs (O&M)                            159885     168300        176715 Rs
  3 Debt ratio                                       34%      36.31%          38% %
  4 Debt interest rate                               15%      15.00%          15% %
  5 Debt term                                         12         12.0          12 Yr
  6 Preferential customer enery rate difference        2          2.0           2 Rs
  7 Energy price escalation rate                      2%       2.00%           2% %
  8 Renewable enrgy generated                   9,37,901     987264     10,36,627 kWh
  9 transmisson loss                                  2%       2.00%           2% %
 10 inflation rate                                    0%       5.00%          10% %




                                                                                        28

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                   29
Gorad
  Village                           Gorad
  District                          Thane
  Longitude                         19⁰30.215’ N
  Latitude                          73⁰1.551’E
  Language                          Marathi
  Households                        254
  Primary occupation                Agriculture, labour
  Area(cultivable)                  184.4 hectare
  Major crop                        Rice and Tuar
  Irrigation                        Rain fed
  Cattle                            400 approx
  Average Annual household income   ₹50,000
  Post office                       No
  School                            Anganwadi, Primary and middle schools
  Health Facility                   No
  Grid electricity                  Available but not reliable




                                                                            30
31
Gorad Seasonal variation
                                               Seasonal Variation
 Thousands kWh




                 140


                 120


                 100


                  80                                                                           Preferential
                                                                                               Irrigation
                                                                                               Commerrcial
                  60
                                                                                               Social
                                                                                               Total
                  40                                                                           Non Preferencial


                  20


                   0
                       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec

                 -20




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Load distribution between technologies
                 140
 Thousands kWh




                 120



                 100



                  80
                                                                                               Min (Base)
                                                                                               Avg (intermediate)

                  60                                                                           Max (peak)
                                                                                               Total


                  40



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                       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec




                                                                                                                    33
Technology Scenarios


  Scenario   Biomass    Biogas   Solar PV   Wind
             Gasifier
  1          Yes        Yes      Yes        No
  2          Yes        Yes      No         Yes
  3          Yes        No       Yes        Yes
  4          No         Yes      Yes        Yes
  5          Yes        Yes      Yes        Yes




                                                   34
Scenario 1




                                    Generation Vs Demand
                2,000                                                                         Cummulative cash flows
Thousands kWh




                                                                    Annual                  150

                                                                                 Millions
                1,500
                                                                    Demand#1
                                                                                            100
                1,000                                               Annual
                                                                                            50
                 500
                                                                    Demand#2
                                                                    Annual                   -
                   -
                                                                                                   0   2   4   6   8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
                        0   2   4   6   8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24   Generation
                                                                                            (50)                                           35
Case 1
Scenario >>           1                2                 3                 4                5
Project Pre Tax IRR             4%            #NUM!                 -3%               8%              -9%

Project After Tax
                                4%            #NUM!                 -3%                              -10%
IRR                                                                                   8%

Equity IRR                    187%            #NUM!               132%             385%               54%

Community IRR                  20%               20%                20%             20%               20%

Equity payback (yr)              17                26                26               13                26

Net present Value
                          -6,391,672       -34,927,566       -23,619,499       -7,998,598       -28,242,616
(Rs)

Benefit-cost ratio             0.51              -0.38             0.19             0.68               0.08




                                                                                                              36

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Case 2
Scenario >>           1               2                 3                4               5
Project Pre Tax IRR           22%               -4%              12%             18%               11%

Project After Tax
                              21%               -4%              12%             17%               10%
IRR

Equity IRR                   148%               19%             121%            265%               95%



Equity payback (yr)              7                26               10               8                11

Net present Value
                          8,933,072       -23,461,850       -7,550,622       4,583,987       -11,201,510
(Rs)

Benefit-cost ratio                               0.07
                               1.68                              0.74             1.18             0.63




                                                                                                           37
Gorad Sensitivity
                       Case 1                          A: Project IRR,
130.00
                                                       C: Equity IRR,
                                                       F: NPV,
120.00
                                                       G: Benefit Cost Ratio
110.00
                                               A
100.00                                         C
                                               F
 90.00                                         G

 80.00
                                          130.00
 70.00                                                      Case 2
         0   10   20      30    40   50   120.00


                                          110.00

                                      A   100.00
                                      C
                                      F    90.00
                                      G
                                           80.00


                                           70.00
                                                   -   10      20    30    40   50
                                                                                     38
Conclusion
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             39
Policy recommendation





                        40

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Future work
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Future work
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49
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Thanks
   Dr. Prasad Modak
     prasad.modak@emcentre.com
     +91 982 012 6074


   Tausif Farooqui
     tausif.farooqui@gmail.com
     +91 922 142 6955




                                  51

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Editor's Notes

  1. I will clean this image
  2. Vasai location : http://wikimapia.org/23756960/Gorad-village-wada-taluka-district-thane