- Bogazici University, Department of International Trade
Hisar Campus, Bebek, Besiktas
34342 Istanbul - +905324241944
Arhan S Ertan
Bogazici University, International Trade, Faculty Member
- International Trade, Economic Development, Experimental Economics, Behavioral Economics, Colonialism, Economic Growth, and 9 moreHuman Capital, International Political Economy, Voting Behavior, International Development, Institutional Economics, Public Goods, International Finance, Migration, and Financial Marketsedit
- short biography to be written...edit
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North Africa is considered to be one of the wealthiest areas of the continent thanks to its natural resources and strategic geopolitical location. While the region is generating about one-third of Africa's total GDP, its economic... more
North Africa is considered to be one of the wealthiest areas of the continent thanks to its natural resources and strategic geopolitical location. While the region is generating about one-third of Africa's total GDP, its economic indicators are not presenting a bright picture for North African countries. This chapter attempts to provide an in-depth overview of the investment environment and shed light on the main constraints on foreign direct investment (FDI) in each of the North African countries. The authors focus on contemporary trends in FDI and policies regarding human capital promotion and infrastructure development. The descriptive analysis indicates that the volume of FDI in the North Africa region is still weak compared to international flows to other developing regions. This outcome can be associated, in addition to unattractive FDI policies, with the absence of real economic and financial reforms, persistent political instability, lack of technological readiness, inadequate regulatory and institutional framework, high corruption and inefficient bureaucracy.
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This paper investigates if individuals’ negative assessments of the future drive micro-level reluctance for international cooperation and reciprocal behavior, a core principle of multilateralism. To test our theoretical expectations, we... more
This paper investigates if individuals’ negative assessments of the future drive micro-level reluctance for international cooperation and reciprocal behavior, a core principle of multilateralism. To test our theoretical expectations, we field online survey experiments on a sample of over 3000 respondents in the US and Turkey in October–November 2020. The experimental results show that on average, individuals are fairly sensitive to target countries’ policy actions and are inclined to reciprocate when contemplating whether to increase contributions to UN or consent to bilateral trade liberalization. Yet, further analyses concur that individual inclinations to reciprocate are substantially moderated by their future expectations. Specifically, individuals who are more pessimistic about their material prospects remain fairly indifferent to the positive actions of other countries, but are more likely to penalize negative foreign policy actions by reciprocating in kind.
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This paper investigates if individuals' negative assessments of the future drive micro-level reluctance for international cooperation and reciprocal behavior, a core principle of multilateralism. To test our theoretical expectations, we... more
This paper investigates if individuals' negative assessments of the future drive micro-level reluctance for international cooperation and reciprocal behavior, a core principle of multilateralism. To test our theoretical expectations, we field online survey experiments on a sample of over 3000 respondents in the US and Turkey in October-November 2020. The experimental results show that on average, individuals are fairly sensitive to target countries' policy actions and are inclined to reciprocate when contemplating whether to increase contributions to UN or consent to bilateral trade liberalization. Yet, further analyses concur that individual inclinations to reciprocate are substantially moderated by their future expectations. Specifically, individuals who are more pessimistic about their material prospects remain fairly indifferent to the positive actions of other countries, but are more likely to penalize negative foreign policy actions by reciprocating in kind.
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At the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 became a global problem. Despite all the efforts to emphasize the relevance of preventive measures, not everyone adhered to them. Thus, learning more about the characteristics determining attitudinal and... more
At the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 became a global problem. Despite all the efforts to emphasize the relevance of preventive measures, not everyone adhered to them. Thus, learning more about the characteristics determining attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic is crucial to improving future interventions. In this study, we applied machine learning on the multi-national data collected by the International Collaboration on the Social and Moral Psychology of COVID-19 (N = 51,404) to test the predictive efficacy of constructs from social, moral, cognitive, and personality psychology, as well as socio-demographic factors, in the attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic. The results point to several valuable insights. Internalized moral identity provided the most consistent predictive contribution—individuals perceiving moral traits as central to their self-concept reported higher adherence to preventive measures. Similar was found for morality as cooperation, s...
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Jay J. Van Bavel , Aleksandra Cichocka , Valerio Capraro, Hallgeir Sjåstad , John B. Nezlek , Tomislav Pavlović , Mark Alfano , Michele J. Gelfand, Flavio Azevedo , Michèle D. Birtel, Aleksandra Cislak , Patricia L. Lockwood , Robert... more
Jay J. Van Bavel , Aleksandra Cichocka , Valerio Capraro, Hallgeir Sjåstad , John B. Nezlek , Tomislav Pavlović , Mark Alfano , Michele J. Gelfand, Flavio Azevedo , Michèle D. Birtel, Aleksandra Cislak , Patricia L. Lockwood , Robert Malcolm Ross , Koen Abts , Elena Agadullina , John Jamir Benzon Aruta , Sahba Nomvula Besharati , Alexander Bor , Becky L. Choma, Charles David Crabtree , William A. Cunningham, Koustav De , Waqas Ejaz , Christian T. Elbaek , Andrej Findor , Daniel Flichtentrei, Renata Franc , Biljana Gjoneska , June Gruber, Estrella Gualda, Yusaku Horiuchi, Toan Luu Duc Huynh , Agustin Ibanez , Mostak Ahamed Imran , Jacob Israelashvili, Katarzyna Jasko, Jaroslaw Kantorowicz , Elena Kantorowicz-Reznichenko, André Krouwel , Michael Laakasuo , Claus Lamm , Caroline Leygue , Ming-Jen Lin , Mohammad Sabbir Mansoor , Antoine Marie , Lewend Mayiwar, Honorata Mazepus, Cillian McHugh , John Paul Minda , Panagiotis Mitkidis , Andreas Olsson , Tobias Otterbring , Dominic J. Packe...
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The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all domains of human life, including the economic and social fabric of societies. One of the central strategies for managing public health throughout the pandemic has been through persuasive messaging... more
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all domains of human life, including the economic and social fabric of societies. One of the central strategies for managing public health throughout the pandemic has been through persuasive messaging and collective behavior change. To help scholars better understand the social and moral psychology behind public health behavior, we present a dataset comprising of 51,404 individuals from 69 countries. This dataset was collected for the International Collaboration on Social Moral Psychology of COVID-19 project (ICSMP COVID-19). This social science survey invited participants around the world to complete a series of individual differences and public health attitudes about COVID-19 during an early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic (between April and June 2020). The survey included seven broad categories of questions: COVID-19 beliefs and compliance behaviours; identity and social attitudes; ideology; health and well-being; moral beliefs and motivation; pe...
What determines whether a country imports high-technology artificial intelligence (A.I.) products from the United States and China? Over the last decade, a growing body of literature began focusing on regime types and argue that... more
What determines whether a country imports high-technology artificial intelligence (A.I.) products from the United States and China? Over the last decade, a growing body of literature began focusing on regime types and argue that authoritarian countries tend to import A.I. from China, whereas democratic countries from the United States. In this study, we test this regime-type hypothesis and find that both the US and China export to authoritarian and democratic countries alike, with China exporting to a larger number of countries. By employing multinomial logit with three leading A.I. trade datasets from Stanford University, Carnegie Endowment and World Bank, we find that Chinese A.I. exports are not driven by regime type, whereas American exports are. US A.I. exports are geared towards a smaller market of wealthy nations, whereas China supplies to a broader market that is made up of a variety of regime types and GDP levels. Furthermore, we find that more countries import surveillance and policing-related A.I. products from the United States, compared to China, debunking a common mainstream view. We conclude by arguing military spending and GDP per capita are two of the strongest determinants of US A.I. exports, while a robust export pattern doesn’t emerge with Chinese A.I.
Finansal analistler, yazdiklari raporlarla pay piyasasinda saglikli bilgi akisina katkida bulunduklari gibi, onerileriyle de buyuk bir yatirim sektorunun portfoy kararlarini etkileme gucune sahipler. Bu calisma, Borsa Istanbul (BIST)... more
Finansal analistler, yazdiklari raporlarla pay piyasasinda saglikli bilgi akisina katkida bulunduklari gibi, onerileriyle de buyuk bir yatirim sektorunun portfoy kararlarini etkileme gucune sahipler. Bu calisma, Borsa Istanbul (BIST) hisse senetleri icin yapilan analist onerileri dogrultusunda olusturulan portfoylerin getirilerini risk faktorleriyle aciklamayi ve analist onerilerinin ek getiri saglamadaki basarisini olcmeyi amaclamaktadir. Bu baglamda analist onerileri dikkate alinarak olusturulan esit ve deger agirlikli portfoyler; CAPM, Fama-French ve Carhart varlik fiyatlama modelleri ile test edilmistir. Bununla birlikte, analist onerilerinin ekonomik durgunluk donemlerinde bir deger yaratip yaratmadigi incelenmistir. Her ne kadar analistlerin olumlu onerileri goreceli yuksek getiri getirse de bu getiriler bilinen risk faktorleri ile aciklandiginda ekonomik ve istatistiksel olarak anlamli bir ek getiriden bahsetmek mumkun degildir. Elde ettigimiz bulgular isiginda, BIST icin orn...
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is a devastating global health crisis. Without a vaccine or effective medication, the best hope for mitigating virus transmission is collective behavior change and support for public health interventions... more
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is a devastating global health crisis. Without a vaccine or effective medication, the best hope for mitigating virus transmission is collective behavior change and support for public health interventions (e.g., physical distancing, physical hygiene, and endorsement of health policies). In a large-scale international collaboration (N = 46,450 across 67 countries), we investigated why people adopted public health behaviors and endorsed public policy interventions (e.g., closing bars and restaurants) during the early stages of the pandemic (April-May, 2020). Results revealed that respondents who identified more strongly with their nation consistently reported engagement in public health behaviors and greater support for public health policies. We also found a small effect of political orientation, indicating that left-wing respondents were more likely to report public health behaviors and support for public health measures than right-wing respondents. We d...
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Abstract Previous experiments on public goods dilemmas have found that the opportunity to punish leads to higher contributions and reduces the free rider problem; however, a substantial amount of punishment is targeted on high... more
Abstract Previous experiments on public goods dilemmas have found that the opportunity to punish leads to higher contributions and reduces the free rider problem; however, a substantial amount of punishment is targeted on high contributors. In the experiment reported here, subjects are given the opportunity to vote on rules governing punishment. We found that, from their first opportunity to vote, no group ever allowed punishment of high contributors, most groups eventually voted to allow punishment of low contributors, and a ...
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Bu calisma 2000–2014 yillari arasinda Borsa Istanbul’da islem gormus olan 208 imalat sektoru isletmesi icin finansal basarisizlik riski uzerinde etkili olan faktorleri belirlemeyi amaclamaktadir. Analizlerde isletmelere ozgu finansal... more
Bu calisma 2000–2014 yillari arasinda Borsa Istanbul’da islem gormus olan 208 imalat sektoru isletmesi icin finansal basarisizlik riski uzerinde etkili olan faktorleri belirlemeyi amaclamaktadir. Analizlerde isletmelere ozgu finansal oranlar ve kurumsal yonetim ile ilgili degiskenlere ek olarak finansal piyasalar, makroekonomi ve kuresel ekonomi ile ilgili gostergeler de goz onune alinmistir. Ampirik tahmin yontemleri olarak yari parametrik (Cox orantili riskler) ve parametrik (panel probit, panel logit, tamamlayici log-log, log-logistic) sag kalim ve panel rastsal etkiler yontemleri kullanilmistir. Bulgulara gore Cox orantili riskler yontemi, islem karakteristigi egrileri, basari ve hata (tip-1 ve tip-2) oranlari acisindan kiyaslanan yontemler arasinda en yuksek basariyi elde etmistir.
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Bu calismanin amaci bankalarin kredi verme, likidite ve risk alma ile ilgili davranislarina etki eden unsurlarla ilgili literatur bulgularini ortaya koymak ve Turkiye bankacilik sektorunun 2005-2018 donemi verileri isiginda, kamu ve ozel... more
Bu calismanin amaci bankalarin kredi verme, likidite ve risk alma ile ilgili davranislarina etki eden unsurlarla ilgili literatur bulgularini ortaya koymak ve Turkiye bankacilik sektorunun 2005-2018 donemi verileri isiginda, kamu ve ozel sermayeli bankalarin bu uc alandaki davranislarinda 2007- 2008 doneminde yasanan Kuresel Finansal Kriz sonrasinda gozlemlenen degisiklikleri incelemektir. Kurulus amaclari dikkate alindiginda, ekonomik aktivitenin yavasladigi ve ozellikle finansal sistemin krizde oldugu donemlerde, kamu bankalarinin ozel bankalara kiyasla, likidite pozisyonlarini goreceli olarak azaltmak suretiyle, daha fazla kredi vermeye calismalari ve risk almalari beklenir. Ilgili akademik calismalar gostermektedir ki finansal krizler sonrasi olusan ekonomik sartlara kamu bankalari, ozel bankalara kiyasla farkli tepkiler gostermektedirler. Turkiye bankacilik sektorunun 2005-2018 donemi verileri incelendiginde, literaturdeki bulgulara paralel olarak, Turkiye’deki kamu ve ozel ban...
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North Africa is considered to be one of the wealthiest areas of the continent thanks to its natural resources and strategic geopolitical location. While the region is generating about one-third of Africa's total GDP, its economic... more
North Africa is considered to be one of the wealthiest areas of the continent thanks to its natural resources and strategic geopolitical location. While the region is generating about one-third of Africa's total GDP, its economic indicators are not presenting a bright picture for North African countries. This chapter attempts to provide an in-depth overview of the investment environment and shed light on the main constraints on foreign direct investment (FDI) in each of the North African countries. The authors focus on contemporary trends in FDI and policies regarding human capital promotion and infrastructure development. The descriptive analysis indicates that the volume of FDI in the North Africa region is still weak compared to international flows to other developing regions. This outcome can be associated, in addition to unattractive FDI policies, with the absence of real economic and financial reforms, persistent political instability, lack of technological readiness, inad...
UMI, ProQuest ® Dissertations & Theses. The world's most comprehensive collection of dissertations and theses. Learn more... ProQuest, Determinants and economic consequences of institutions: Analyses of colonization, trade policy... more
UMI, ProQuest ® Dissertations & Theses. The world's most comprehensive collection of dissertations and theses. Learn more... ProQuest, Determinants and economic consequences of institutions: Analyses of colonization, trade policy and a public good experiment. ...
We study a voluntary contributions mechanism in which punishment may be allowed, depending on subjects’ voted rules. We found that out of 160 group votes, even when groups had no prior experience with unrestricted punishment, no group... more
We study a voluntary contributions mechanism in which punishment may be allowed, depending on subjects’ voted rules. We found that out of 160 group votes, even when groups had no prior experience with unrestricted punishment, no group ever voted to allow unrestricted punishment and no group ever allowed punishment of high contributors. Over a series of votes and periods of learning we found a distinct reluctance to allow any punishment at the beginning, with a gradual but clear evolution toward allowing punishment of low contributors. And groups allowing punishment of only low contributors achieved levels of cooperation and efficiency that are among the highest in the literature on social dilemmas.
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The process of colonization has shaped the economic and demographic contours of the modern world. In this paper, we study the determinants of the occurrence and timing of colonization of non-European countries by Western European powers.... more
The process of colonization has shaped the economic and demographic contours of the modern world. In this paper, we study the determinants of the occurrence and timing of colonization of non-European countries by Western European powers. Of particular interest is the role of early development measures that are known to be strong correlates of present-day levels of income. We show that non-European societies with longer histories of agriculture and statehood and higher levels of technology adoption in 1500 were less likely to be colonized, and tended to be colonized later if at all. We also find that proximity to the colonizing powers, disease environment, and latitude are significant predictors of the occurrence and timing of colonization, although their impacts are less robust to choice of country sample. Our models have high explanatory power, and their support for the significance of early development is robust to the use of alternative indicators of early development and disease, to the use of instruments to focus on the exogenous component of early development, and to the joint estimation of the colonization and timing equations to correct for potential selection bias.
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Abstract Previous experiments on public goods dilemmas have found that the opportunity to punish leads to higher contributions and reduces the free rider problem; however, a substantial amount of punishment is targeted on high... more
Abstract Previous experiments on public goods dilemmas have found that the opportunity to punish leads to higher contributions and reduces the free rider problem; however, a substantial amount of punishment is targeted on high contributors. In the experiment reported here, subjects are given the opportunity to vote on rules governing punishment.