Adnan Kisa

BACKGROUND: Uncorrected refractive error (URE) is a readily treatable cause of visual impairment (VI). This study provides updated estimates of global and regional vision loss due to URE, presenting temporal change for VISION 2020 METHODS: Data from population-based eye disease surveys from 1980-2018 were collected. Hierarchical models estimated prevalence (95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) of blindness (presenting visual acuity (VA) < 3/60) and moderate-to-severe vision impairment (MSVI; 3/60 ≤ presenting VA < 6/18) caused by URE, stratified by age, sex, region, and year. Near VI prevalence from uncorrected presbyopia was defined as presenting near VA < N6/N8 at 40 cm when best-corrected distance (VA ≥ 6/12). RESULTS: In 2020, 3.7 million people (95%UI 3.10-4.29) were blind and 157 million (140-176) had MSVI due to URE, a 21.8% increase in blindness and 72.0% increase in MSVI since 2000. Age-standardised prevalence of URE blindness and MSVI decreased by 30.5% (30.7-30.3) and 2.4% (2.6-2.2) respectively during this time. In 2020, South Asia GBD super-region had the highest 50∫∠ years age-standardised URE blindness (0.33% (0.26-0.40%)) and MSVI (10.3% (8.82-12.10%)) rates. The age-standardized ratio of women to men for URE blindness was 1.05:1.00 in 2020 and 1.03:1.00 in 2000. An estimated 419 million (295-562) people 50∫∠had near VI from uncorrected presbyopia, a ∫75.3% (74.6-76.0) increase from 2000 CONCLUSIONS: The number of cases of VI from URE substantively grew, even as age-standardised prevalence fell, since 2000, with a continued disproportionate burden by region and sex. Global population ageing will increase this burden, highlighting urgent need for novel approaches to refractive service delivery.

Background
Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.
Methods
The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.
Findings
Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).
Interpretation
Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

Background Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the allcause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2•5th and 97•5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

Background
This study aims to estimate the burden, trends, forecasts, and disparities of early musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders among individuals ages 15 to 39 years.
Methods
The global prevalence, years lived with disabilities (YLDs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), projection, and inequality were estimated for early MSK diseases, including rheumatoid arthritis (RA), osteoarthritis (OA), low back pain (LBP), neck pain (NP), gout, and other MSK diseases (OMSKDs).
Findings
More adolescents and young adults were expected to develop MSK disorders by 2050. Across five age groups, the rates of prevalence, YLDs, and DALYs for RA, NP, LBP, gout, and OMSKDs sharply increased from ages 15–19 to 35–39; however, these were negligible for OA before age 30 but increased notably at ages 30–34, rising at least 6-fold by 35–39. The disease burden of gout, LBP, and OA attributable to high BMI and gout attributable to kidney dysfunction increased, while the contribution of smoking to LBP and RA and occupational ergonomic factors to LBP decreased. Between 1990 and 2019, the slope index of inequality increased for six MSK disorders, and the relative concentration index increased for gout, NP, OA, and OMSKDs but decreased for LBP and RA.
Conclusions
Multilevel interventions should be initiated to prevent disease burden related to RA, NP, LBP, gout, and OMSKDs among individuals ages 15–19 and to OA among individuals ages 30–34 to tightly control high BMI and kidney dysfunction.

Background
Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.
Methods
To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.
Findings
During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.
Interpretation
Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

Summary
Background Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life
neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous
publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of
15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as
defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and
infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by
37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.
Methods We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disabilityadjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and
territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss
is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from
conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of
congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice,
preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus
disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions,
only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal
burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total
prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.
Findings Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause
of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of
the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between
1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990
to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by
27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer’s
disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm
birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.
Interpretation As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts,
effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

Background
Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.
Methods
22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.
Findings
Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.
Interpretation
Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

Background Neck pain is a highly prevalent condition that leads to considerable pain, disability, and economic cost. We present the most current estimates of neck pain prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) by age, sex, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. Methods Systematic reviews identified population-representative surveys used to estimate the prevalence of and YLDs from neck pain in 204 countries and territories, spanning from 1990 to 2020, with additional data from opportunistic review. Medical claims data from Taiwan (province of China) were also included. Input data were pooled using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor and multiplying by projected population estimates. We present 95% UIs for every metric based on the 2•5th and 97•5th percentiles of 100 draws of the posterior distribution. Findings Globally, in 2020, neck pain affected 203 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163-253) people. The global age-standardised prevalence rate of neck pain was estimated to be 2450 (1960-3040) per 100 000 population and global age-standardised YLD rate was estimated to be 244 (165-346) per 100 000. The age-standardised prevalence rate remained stable between 1990 and 2020 (percentage change 0•2% [-1•3 to 1•7]). Globally, females had a higher agestandardised prevalence rate (2890 [2330-3620] per 100 000) than males (2000 [1600-2480] per 100 000), with the prevalence peaking between 45 years and 74 years in male and female sexes. By 2050, the estimated global number of neck pain cases is projected to be 269 million (219-322), with an increase of 32•5% (23•9-42•3) from 2020 to 2050. Decomposition analysis of the projections showed population growth was the primary contributing factor, followed by population ageing. Interpretation Although age-standardised rates of neck pain have remained stable over the past three decades, by 2050 the projected case numbers are expected to rise. With the highest prevalence in older adults (higher in females than males), a larger effect expected in low-income and middle-income countries, and a rapidly ageing global population, neck pain continues to pose a challenge in terms of disability burden worldwide. For future planning, it is essential we improve our mechanistic understanding of the different causes and risk factors for neck pain and prioritise the consistent collection of global neck pain data and increase the number of countries with data on neck pain.

Objectives: As little is known about the burden of type 1 (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in adolescents in Western Europe (WE), we aimed to explore their epidemiology among 10–24 year-olds.

Methods: Estimates were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2019. We reported counts, rates per 100,000 population, and percentage changes from 1990 to 2019 for prevalence, incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) of T1DM and T2DM, and the burden of T2DM in YLDs attributable to high body mass index (HBMI), for 24 WE countries.

Results: In 2019, prevalence and disability estimates were higher for T1DM than T2DM among 10–24 years old adolescents in WE. However, T2DM showed a greater increase in prevalence and disability than T1DM in the 30 years observation period in all WE countries. Prevalence increased with age, while only minor differences were observed between sexes.

Conclusion: Our findings highlight the substantial burden posed by DM in WE among adolescents. Health system responses are needed for transition services, data collection systems, education, and obesity prevention.

Background
Musculoskeletal disorders include more than 150 different conditions affecting joints, muscles, bones, ligaments, tendons, and the spine. To capture all health loss from death and disability due to musculoskeletal disorders, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) includes a residual musculoskeletal category for conditions other than osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, low back pain, and neck pain. This category is called other musculoskeletal disorders and includes, for example, systemic lupus erythematosus and spondylopathies. We provide updated estimates of the prevalence, mortality, and disability attributable to other musculoskeletal disorders and forecasted prevalence to 2050.
Methods
Prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using data from 68 sources across 23 countries from which subtraction of cases of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, low back pain, neck pain, and gout from the total number of cases of musculoskeletal disorders was possible. Data were analysed with Bayesian meta-regression models to estimate prevalence by year, age, sex, and location. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence and disability weights. Mortality attributed to other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated using vital registration data. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 by regressing prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2020 with Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by population forecasts.
Findings
Globally, 494 million (95% uncertainty interval 431–564) people had other musculoskeletal disorders in 2020, an increase of 123·4% (116·9–129·3) in total cases from 221 million (192–253) in 1990. Cases of other musculoskeletal disorders are projected to increase by 115% (107–124) from 2020 to 2050, to an estimated 1060 million (95% UI 964–1170) prevalent cases in 2050; most regions were projected to have at least a 50% increase in cases between 2020 and 2050. The global age-standardised prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was 47·4% (44·9–49·4) higher in females than in males and increased with age to a peak at 65–69 years in male and female sexes. In 2020, other musculoskeletal disorders was the sixth ranked cause of YLDs globally (42·7 million [29·4–60·0]) and was associated with 83 100 deaths (73 600–91 600).
Interpretation
Other musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for a large number of global YLDs in 2020. Until individual conditions and risk factors are more explicitly quantified, policy responses to this burden remain a challenge. Temporal trends and geographical differences in estimates of non-fatal disease burden should not be overinterpreted as they are based on sparse, low-quality data.

Background Unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is a largely preventable cause of death that has received insufficient attention. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive global analysis of the demographic, temporal, and geographical patterns of fatal unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning from 2000 to 2021. Methods As part of the latest Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality was quantified using the GBD cause of death ensemble modelling strategy. Vital registration data and covariates with an epidemiological link to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning informed the estimates of death counts and mortality rates for all locations, sexes, ages, and years included in the GBD. Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying deaths by remaining standard life expectancy at age of death. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning deaths due to occupational injuries and high alcohol use were estimated. Findings In 2021, the global mortality rate due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning was 0•366 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval 0•276-0•415), with 28 900 deaths (21 700-32 800) and 1•18 million YLLs (0•886-1•35) across all ages. Nearly 70% of deaths occurred in males (20 100 [15 800-24 000]), and the 50-54-year age group had the largest number of deaths (2210 [1660-2590]). The highest mortality rate was in those aged 85 years or older with 1•96 deaths (1•38-2•32) per 100 000. Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardised mortality rate at 2•12 deaths (1•98-2•30) per 100 000. Globally, there was a 53•5% (46•2-63•7) decrease in the age-standardised mortality rate from 2000 to 2021, although this decline was not uniform across regions. The overall PAFs for occupational injuries and high alcohol use were 13•6% (11•9-16•0) and 3•5% (1•4-6•2), respectively. Interpretation Improvements in unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality rates have been inconsistent across regions and over time since 2000. Given that unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is almost entirely preventable, policy-level interventions that lower the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning events should be prioritised, such as those that increase access to improved heating and cooking devices, reduce carbon monoxide emissions from generators, and mandate use of carbon monoxide alarms. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. Methods Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates. Findings In 2020, an estimated 17•6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15•8-20•3) people had rheumatoid arthritis worldwide. The age-standardised global prevalence rate was 208•8 cases (186•8-241•1) per 100 000 population, representing a 14•1% (12•7-15•4) increase since 1990. Prevalence was higher in females (age-standardised female-tomale prevalence ratio 2•45 [2•40-2•47]). The age-standardised death rate was 0•47 (0•41-0•54) per 100 000 population (38 300 global deaths [33 500-44 000]), a 23•8% (17•5-29•3) decrease from 1990 to 2020. The 2020 DALY count was 3 060 000 (2 320 000-3 860 000), with an age-standardised DALY rate of 36•4 (27•6-45•9) per 100 000 population. YLDs accounted for 76•4% (68•3-81•0) of DALYs. Smoking risk attribution for rheumatoid arthritis DALYs was 7•1% (3•6-10•3). We forecast that 31•7 million (25•8-39•0) individuals will be living with rheumatoid arthritis worldwide by 2050. Interpretation Rheumatoid arthritis mortality has decreased globally over the past three decades. Global agestandardised prevalence rate and YLDs have increased over the same period, and the number of cases is projected to continue to increase to the year 2050. Improved access to early diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis globally is required to reduce the future burden of the disease.

Background: Since 1990, the maternal mortality significantly decreased at global scale as well as the North Africa and Middle East. However, estimates for mortality and morbidity by cause and age at national scale in this region are not available.

Methods: This study is part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD) 2019. Here we report maternal mortality and morbidity by age and cause across 21 countries in the region from 1990 to 2019.

Results: Between 1990 and 2019, maternal mortality ratio (MMR) dropped from 148.8 (129.6-171.2) to 94.3 (73.4-121.1) per 100000 live births in North Africa and Middle East. In 1990, MMR ranged from 6.0 (5.3-6.8) in Kuwait to 502.9 (375.2-655.3) per 100000 live births in Afghanistan. Respective figures for 2019 were 5.1 (4.0-6.4) in Kuwait to 269.9 (195.8-368.6) in Afghanistan. Percentages of deaths under 25 years was 26.0% in 1990 and 23.8% in 2019. Maternal hemorrhage, indirect maternal deaths, and other maternal disorders rank 1st to 3rd in the entire region. Ultimately, there was an evident decrease in MMR along with increase in socio-demographic index from 1990 to 2019 in all countries in the region and an evident convergence across nations.

Conclusion: MMR has significantly declined in the region since 1990 and only five countries (Afghanistan, Sudan, Yemen, Morocco, and Algeria) out of 21 nations didn't achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target of 70 deaths per 100000 live births in 2019. Despite the convergence in trends, there are still disparities across countries.

Home health care is a low-cost alternative to traditional inpatient care and an appealing alternative for developing countries such as Turkey, where financial resources for health care are particularly scarce. To gain insight into the concerns of physicians regarding this possibility, a survey was administered to 200 physicians sampled at a large academic medical center in central Turkey. The results of the study indicate that 14% of the participants think that home health care in general is not appropriate for Turkey; however, 58% of participants felt that being close to one’s family when ill can have a significant effect on the course of the illness and recovery. The results of the study suggest that home health care is seen as an economically appealing but somewhat medically controversial area that nonetheless shows promise for future development in Turkey and other similarly developing countries.

This article communicates the results of a patient satisfaction survey administered to 420 adults discharged from a major public hospital in Turkey. The direct measurement of patient satisfaction is a relatively new phenomenon for this country. A system was designed similar to those available in the US and was applied during an exit interview. Three areas of analysis were identified: accessibility and availability of services, perceived quality of patient care and organizational and administrative issues. Relationships and percentages within and among several variables are reported. Overall, most individuals were satisfied with direct patient care, although in some areas this varied significantly and was based on the education level of the respondent. In addition, many customers reported discontentment with organizational and administrative support services. We recommend that hospitals in Turkey adapt routine policies similar to those in the US for conducting these types of evaluations.

The Turkish health system is mainly financed by public sources such as taxes and premiums collected from workers. According to 2003 data, total health expenditures were 4.5% of the country&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;#39;s Gross Domestic Product. Currently, 56% of the system is financed by the Ministry of Health, and services are also provided by the Ministry. The main sources of finance among the Ministry of Health hospitals are general budget contributions made by the Ministry and revolving funds. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the financial conditions of those Ministry of Health hospitals that have revolving funds. The financial trends of 2514 hospitals were followed from 1996 to 2000, and financial statement analyses were conducted. The results of the study show that the Ministry of Health hospitals are not professionally administered for their financial situation and also that their financial resources are not used effectively. The hospitals had difficulty in collecting debts and had problems in cash returns. At the end of the study, policy suggestions are made for health care managers toward improving financial conditions in these public hospitals.

Several recent reports show that many physicians feel discontented and unhappy with their work situation. This could be due in part to factors such as declining social status, loss of influence on health care organizations, and reduced income. The professional life of physicians is characterized by long working days and pressure for efficiency. This threatens the quality of patient care. In this study we investigated levels of job stress as well as job and life satisfaction among a sample of 168 physicians (80 women and 88 men) who work in a large government facility in Ankara, Turkey. A self-administered questionnaire was distributed to physicians to determine factors contributing to stress and job satisfaction. The most important results of the study show that the participants were unhappy with their salary, did not have enough time to follow developments in medicine, and had a limited social life due to heavy workloads. The results of the study show that physicians who work in public facilities have low motivation due to the nature of their organizations. Public hospital working conditions and staff salaries must be improved to promote health professionals and healthy society.

Purpose–Poor people often experience a delay in meeting their healthcare needs due to their economic situation. As a result, delayed diagnoses and treatment may increase disease severity, increase the risk of death, and enhance disease transmission in the ...

Abstract In many developing countries, an ever-increasing population, great numbers of patients per hospital and physician, and unevenly distributed infrastructure are among the main sources of excessive pressure on the major health care institutions. According to the ...

Background The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Findings In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of −0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = −0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = −0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = −0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = −0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = −0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR. Interpretation The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

For authoritarian-minded leaders, the COVID-19 crisis offered a convenient pretext to silence critics and consolidate power. Populist and autocratic leaders used the crisis as an excuse to do things they had long planned to do but had not been able to. Using a narrative literature review, this study examines the authoritarian responses to COVID-19 in Brazil and Turkey between 2020 and 2021. Available articles were retrieved from Medline and Google Scholar using a non-systematic approach using inclusion and exclusion criteria. Major identified authoritarian responses were imprisoning human rights defenders, journalists, lawyers, political activists, and medical professionals; flaunting public health and human rights laws; blaming other countries for causing the pandemic; and underreporting COVID cases. The study concludes that these actions had devastating consequences for democracy, human rights, and public health.

Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an urgent global health challenge and a critical threat to modern health care. Quantifying its burden in the WHO Region of the Americas has been elusive-despite the region's long history of resistance surveillance. This study provides comprehensive estimates of AMR burden in the Americas to assess this growing health threat. Methods We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with AMR for 23 bacterial pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations for countries in the WHO Region of the Americas in 2019. We obtained data from mortality registries, surveillance systems, hospital systems, systematic literature reviews, and other sources, and applied predictive statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all countries in the Americas. Five broad components were the backbone of our approach: the number of deaths where infection had a role, the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of pathogens resistant to an antibiotic class, and the excess risk of mortality (or duration of an infection) associated with this resistance. We then used these components to estimate the disease burden by applying two counterfactual scenarios: deaths attributable to AMR (compared to an alternative scenario where resistant infections are replaced with susceptible ones), and deaths associated with AMR (compared to an alternative scenario where resistant infections would not occur at all). We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity. Findings We estimated 569,000 deaths (95% UI 406,000-771,000) associated with bacterial AMR and 141,000 deaths (99,900-196,000) attributable to bacterial AMR among the 35 countries in the WHO Region of the Americas in 2019. Lower respiratory and thorax infections, as a syndrome, were responsible for the largest fatal burden of AMR in the region, with 189,000 deaths (149,000-241,000) associated with resistance, followed by bloodstream infections (169,000 deaths [94,200-278,000]) and peritoneal/intra-abdominal infections (118,000 deaths [78,600-168,000]). The six leading pathogens (by order of number of deaths associated with resistance) were Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Acinetobacter baumannii. Together, these pathogens were responsible for 452,000 deaths (326,000-608,000) associated with AMR. Methicillin-resistant S. aureus predominated as the leading pathogen-drug combination in 34 countries for deaths attributable to AMR, while aminopenicillin-resistant E. coli was the leading pathogen-drug combination in 15 countries for deaths associated with AMR. Interpretation Given the burden across different countries, infectious syndromes, and pathogen-drug combinations, AMR represents a substantial health threat in the Americas. Countries with low access to antibiotics and basic healthcare services often face the largest age-standardised mortality rates associated with and attributable to AMR in the region, implicating specific policy interventions. Evidence from this study can guide mitigation efforts that are tailored to the needs of each country in the region while informing decisions regarding funding and resource allocation. Multisectoral and joint cooperative efforts among countries will be a key to success in tackling AMR in the Americas.

Background Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. Methods Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. Findings In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6•1% (5•8-6•5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9•3% [8•7-9•9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12•3% [11•5-13•0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world&amp;#39;s highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76•1% (73•1-79•5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96•0% (95•1-96•8) of diabetes cases and 95•4% (94•9-95•9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52•2% (25•5-71•8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24•3% (18•5-30•4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1•31 billion (1•22-1•39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16•8% (16•1-17•6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11•3% (10•8-11•9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43•6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. Interpretation Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. F

Background Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (YLDs). We present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national data on prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. Methods Population-based studies from 1980 to 2019 identified in a systematic review, international surveys, US medical claims data, and dataset contributions by collaborators were used to estimate the prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from 1990 to 2020, for 204 countries and territories. Low back pain was defined as pain between the 12th ribs and the gluteal folds that lasted a day or more; input data using alternative definitions were adjusted in a network meta-regression analysis. Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs by age, sex, year, and location. Prevalence was projected to 2050 by running a regression on prevalence rates using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying them by projected population estimates. Findings In 2020, low back pain affected 619 million (95% uncertainty interval 554-694) people globally, with a projection of 843 million (759-933) prevalent cases by 2050. In 2020, the global age-standardised rate of YLDs was 832 per 100 000 (578-1070). Between 1990 and 2020, age-standardised rates of prevalence and YLDs decreased by 10•4% (10•9-10•0) and 10•5% (11•1-10•0), respectively. A total of 38•8% (28•7-47•0) of YLDs were attributed to occupational factors, smoking, and high BMI. Interpretation Low back pain remains the leading cause of YLDs globally, and in 2020, there were more than half a billion prevalent cases of low back pain worldwide. While age-standardised rates have decreased modestly over the past three decades, it is projected that globally in 2050, more than 800 million people will have low back pain. Challenges persist in obtaining primary country-level data on low back pain, and there is an urgent need for more high-quality, primary, country-level data on both prevalence and severity distributions to improve accuracy and monitor change.

Background Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. Methods Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. Findings In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6•1% (5•8-6•5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9•3% [8•7-9•9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12•3% [11•5-13•0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76•1% (73•1-79•5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96•0% (95•1-96•8) of diabetes cases and 95•4% (94•9-95•9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52•2% (25•5-71•8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24•3% (18•5-30•4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1•31 billion (1•22-1•39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16•8% (16•1-17•6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11•3% (10•8-11•9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43•6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. Interpretation Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. F

Background Previous global analyses, with known underdiagnosis and single cause per death attribution systems, provide only a small insight into the suspected high population health effect of sickle cell disease. Completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, this study delivers a comprehensive global assessment of prevalence of sickle cell disease and mortality burden by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2021. Methods We estimated cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality using standardised GBD approaches, in which each death is assigned to a single underlying cause, to estimate mortality rates from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded vital registration, surveillance, and verbal autopsy data. In parallel, our goal was to estimate a more accurate account of sickle cell disease health burden using four types of epidemiological data on sickle cell disease: birth incidence, age-specific prevalence, with-condition mortality (total deaths), and excess mortality (excess deaths). Systematic reviews, supplemented with ICD-coded hospital discharge and insurance claims data, informed this modelling approach. We employed DisMod-MR 2.1 to triangulate between these measures-borrowing strength from predictive covariates and across age, time, and geography-and generated internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality for three distinct genotypes of sickle cell disease: homozygous sickle cell disease and severe sickle cell β-thalassaemia, sickle-haemoglobin C disease, and mild sickle cell β-thalassaemia. Summing the three models yielded final estimates of incidence at birth, prevalence by age and sex, and total sickle cell disease mortality, the latter of which was compared directly against cause-specific mortality estimates to evaluate differences in mortality burden assessment and implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Findings Between 2000 and 2021, national incidence rates of sickle cell disease were relatively stable, but total births of babies with sickle cell disease increased globally by 13•7% (95% uncertainty interval 11•1-16•5), to 515 000 (425 000-614 000), primarily due to population growth in the Caribbean and western and central sub-Saharan Africa. The number of people living with sickle cell disease globally increased by 41•4% (38•3-44•9), from 5•46 million (4•62-6•45) in 2000 to 7•74 million (6•51-9•2) in 2021. We estimated 34 400 (25 000-45 200) cause-specific all-age deaths globally in 2021, but total sickle cell disease mortality burden was nearly 11-times higher at 376 000 (303 000-467 000). In children younger than 5 years, there were 81 100 (58 800-108 000) deaths, ranking total sickle cell disease mortality as 12th (compared to 40th for cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality) across all causes estimated by the GBD in 2021. Interpretation Our findings show a strikingly high contribution of sickle cell disease to all-cause mortality that is not apparent when each death is assigned to only a single cause. Sickle cell disease mortality burden is highest in children, especially in countries with the greatest under-5 mortality rates. Without comprehensive strategies to address morbidity and mortality associated with sickle cell disease, attainment of SDG 3.1, 3.2, and 3.4 is uncertain. Widespread data gaps and correspondingly high uncertainty in the estimates highlight the urgent need for routine and sustained surveillance efforts, further research to assess the contribution of conditions associated with sickle cell disease, and widespread deployment of evidence-based prevention and treatment for those with sickle cell disease.

Background Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (YLDs). We present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national data on prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. Methods Population-based studies from 1980 to 2019 identified in a systematic review, international surveys, US medical claims data, and dataset contributions by collaborators were used to estimate the prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from 1990 to 2020, for 204 countries and territories. Low back pain was defined as pain between the 12th ribs and the gluteal folds that lasted a day or more; input data using alternative definitions were adjusted in a network meta-regression analysis. Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs by age, sex, year, and location. Prevalence was projected to 2050 by running a regression on prevalence rates using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying them by projected population estimates. Findings In 2020, low back pain affected 619 million (95% uncertainty interval 554-694) people globally, with a projection of 843 million (759-933) prevalent cases by 2050. In 2020, the global age-standardised rate of YLDs was 832 per 100 000 (578-1070). Between 1990 and 2020, age-standardised rates of prevalence and YLDs decreased by 10•4% (10•9-10•0) and 10•5% (11•1-10•0), respectively. A total of 38•8% (28•7-47•0) of YLDs were attributed to occupational factors, smoking, and high BMI. Interpretation Low back pain remains the leading cause of YLDs globally, and in 2020, there were more than half a billion prevalent cases of low back pain worldwide. While age-standardised rates have decreased modestly over the past three decades, it is projected that globally in 2050, more than 800 million people will have low back pain. Challenges persist in obtaining primary country-level data on low back pain, and there is an urgent need for more high-quality, primary, country-level data on both prevalence and severity distributions to improve accuracy and monitor change.

Background Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CRDs and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we estimated mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and incidence of CRDs, i.e. chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, pneumoconiosis, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, and other CRDs, from 1990 to 2019 by sex, age, region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) in 204 countries and territories. Deaths and DALYs from CRDs attributable to each risk factor were estimated according to relative risks, risk exposure, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input. Findings In 2019, CRDs were the third leading cause of death responsible for 4.0 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 3.6-4.3) with a prevalence of 454.6 million cases (417.4-499.1) globally. While the total deaths and prevalence of CRDs have increased by 28.5% and 39.8%, the age-standardised rates have dropped by 41.7% and 16.9% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. COPD, with 212.3 million (200.4-225.1) prevalent cases, was the primary cause of deaths from CRDs, accounting for 3.3 million (2.9-3.6) deaths. With 262.4 million (224.1-309.5) prevalent cases, asthma had the highest prevalence among CRDs. The age-standardised rates of all burden measures of COPD, asthma, and pneumoconiosis have reduced globally from 1990 to 2019. Nevertheless, the age-standardised rates of incidence and prevalence of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis have increased throughout this period. Lowand low-middle SDI countries had the highest age-standardised death and DALYs rates while the high SDI quintile had the highest prevalence rate of CRDs. The highest deaths and DALYs from CRDs were attributed to smoking globally, followed by air pollution and occupational risks. Non-optimal temperature and high body-mass index were additional risk factors for COPD and asthma, respectively. Interpretation Albeit the age-standardised prevalence, death, and DALYs rates of CRDs have decreased, they still cause a substantial burden and deaths worldwide. The high death and DALYs rates in low and low-middle SDI countries highlights the urgent need for improved preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic measures. Global strategies for tobacco control, enhancing air quality, reducing occupational hazards, and fostering clean cooking fuels are crucial steps in reducing the burden of CRDs, especially in low-and lower-middle income countries.

Hypertension is one of the major causes of disease burden affecting many countries. The significance of hypertension as a health problem, its early detection and effective treatment, and the benefits and costs of hypertension screening should be evaluated. The purpose of this study is to assess the cost effectiveness of screening for hypertension in Turkey. A cost effectiveness model was developed to estimate the burden and the cost of screening for hypertension in Turkey. The results of the study showed that approximately 930,000 DALYs were lost due to hypertension (YLL = 800000, YLD = 130000), total cost of treatment of patients with hypertension was about USD 532 million. The estimates suggest that the total cost of screening for hypertension was about USD 147 million. The cost effectiveness ratio was found to be US$ 17 186 per DALY averted. World Health Organization (WHO) suggested that interventions costing less than three times GDP per capita for each DALY averted represent good value for money so that the study results were consistent with the suggestions of WHO. The study concludes that hypertension and hypertension related medical conditions are significant health problems in Turkey. If it can be detected at an early stage, highly effective treatments are available.

Hypertension is one of the major causes of disease burden affecting many countries. The significance of hypertension as a health problem, its early detection and effective treatment, and the benefits and costs of hypertension screening should be evaluated. The purpose of this study is to assess the cost effectiveness of screening for hypertension in Turkey. A cost effectiveness model was developed to estimate the burden and the cost of screening for hypertension in Turkey. The results of the study showed that approximately 930,000 DALYs were lost due to hypertension (YLL = 800000, YLD = 130000), total cost of treatment of patients with hypertension was about USD 532 million. The estimates suggest that the total cost of screening for hypertension was about USD 147 million. The cost effectiveness ratio was found to be US$ 17 186 per DALY averted. World Health Organization (WHO) suggested that interventions costing less than three times GDP per capita for each DALY averted represent good value for money so that the study results were consistent with the suggestions of WHO. The study concludes that hypertension and hypertension related medical conditions are significant health problems in Turkey. If it can be detected at an early stage, highly effective treatments are available.

Sağlık Kurumlarında Performans Ölçümü – Performance Management in Health Care Organizations
Productivity measurement in health care organization
Financial Performance Measurement in Health Care Organizations
Sağlık Kurumlarında Verimlilik Ölçümü
Sağlık Kurumlarında Performans Ölçümü

Sağlık Kurumlarında Kalite Yönetimi –  Quality Management in Health Care Organizations
Total Quality management in health care organizations
Quality assurance in health care organizations
Sağlık Kurumlarında Kalite
Sağlık Kurıumlarında Kalite Güvence Sistemi

Sağlık Kurumları Yönetimi
Management of Health Care Organizations
Definition of management
Role of health care administrators
Historical development of health administration profession
Roles of health administrators in 2000s
Ethical issues in health care organizations
Sağlık kurumları yöneticisinin işlevleri
Sağlık kurumları yönetomi mesleğinin tarihsel gelişimi
Sağlık kurumları yöneticilerinin etik kuralları

Classification of Health Services
Preventive Health Services
Secondary Health Services
Tertiary Health Services
Rehabilitation Services
Main Goals of Health Care Organizations
Sağlık hizmetleri sınıflandırması
Tedavi edici sağlık hizmetleri
Koruyucu sağlık hizmetleri
Rehabilite edici sağlık hizmetleri
Sağlık kurumlarının temel amacı

Hastane Organizasyon Yapısı
Hospital Organization Structure
Main administrative structure of hospitals
Medical committees of hospitals
Organization of medical services
Organization of paramedical services
Administrative, financial and support services in hospitals

O Relatório da Comissão de macroeconomia e Saúde e o relatório intitulado
Scaling Up the Response to Infectious Disease: A way out of Poverty da OMS
demonstraram os incontroversos liames entre saúde e desenvolvimento econômico e
registraram as crescentes necessidades de cuidados de saúde para doenças infecciosas
como HIV/AIDS e tuberculose. Via de regra, o gerenciamento de todas as condições
crônicas – doenças não transmissíveis, distúrbios mentais de longo prazo e algumas
doenças transmissíveis como HIV/AIDS – é um dos maiores desafios enfrentados pelos
sistemas de saúde em todo o mundo.
Atualmente, as condições crônicas são responsáveis por 60% de todo o ônus decorrente
de doenças no mundo. O crescimento é tão vertiginoso que, no ano 2020, 80% da
carga de doença dos países em desenvolvimento devem advir de problemas crônicos.
Nesses países, a aderência aos tratamentos chega a ser apenas de 20%, levando a estatísticas
negativas na área da saúde com encargos muito elevados para a sociedade, o governo e
os familiares. Até hoje, em todo o mundo, os sistemas de saúde não possuem um plano
de gerenciamento das condições crônicas; simplesmente tratam os sintomas quando
aparecem.
Ao reconhecer a oportunidade de melhorar os serviços de saúde para as condições
crônicas, a OMS lançou o projeto Cuidados Inovadores para Condições Crônicas. Durante
a primeira fase deste projeto, as melhores práticas e os modelos de atenção à saúde com
custos acessíveis foram identificados, analisados e compendiados. Diversos especialistas,
organizações e instituições internacionais participaram do processo.
Esta publicação apresenta o resultado dessa iniciativa: um modelo abrangente para
atualizar os serviços de saúde com vistas a tratar as condições crônicas. Os componentes
estruturais aqui propostos e a estrutura apresentada são relevantes tanto para a prevenção
quanto para o gerenciamento de doenças em todos os âmbitos da saúde. Isso se torna
especialmente importante dado o fato de a maioria das condições crônicas poder ser
evitada.
Em um encontro internacional de avaliação, tomadores de decisão analisaram essas
estratégias, bem como toda a estrutura a fim de se prepararem para qualquer situação
inesperada que deva ser enfrentada por países em desenvolvimento, incluindo a epidemia
de HIV/AIDS, a evasão de recursos humanos capacitados para o setor privado, um
colapso geral da economia e uma mudança do governo. Os participantes também
reconheceram que o modelo apresentado é aplicável a uma gama de condições crônicas,
incluindo HIV/AIDS, tuberculose, doenças cardiovasculares, diabetes e distúrbios
mentais de longo prazo.
As próximas fases incluem a execução de projetos pilotos em países para a
implementação das estratégias descritas neste relatório. Esse processo será concluído
em colaboração estrita de parcerias da área de saúde pública.
O presente relatório representa um passo importante para o preparo dos responsáveis
pela elaboração de políticas, dos planejadores do setor saúde e de outros agentes relevantes
para o empreendimento de ações que visem a redução das ameaças impostas pelas
condições crônicas à população, aos sistemas de saúde e às economias.

Le Rapport de la Commission Macroéconomie et santé et le rapport publié ultérieurement par l’OMS Scaling
Up the Response to Infectious Diseases: A Way Out of Poverty établissent les liens irréfutables qui existent
entre la santé et le développement économique ainsi que la demande croissante de soins de santé en
rapport avec les maladies infectieuses telles que le VIH/SIDA et la tuberculose. Plus généralement, la
prise en charge de toutes les affections chroniques - maladies non transmissibles, troubles mentaux de
longue durée et certaines maladies transmissibles telles que le VIH/SIDA - est l’un des plus grands défis
pour les systèmes de soins de santé partout dans le monde. Les affections chroniques sont actuellement
responsables de 60% de la charge mondiale de morbidité. Elles progressent à un rythme tel que, d’ici à
2020, les pays en développement peuvent s’attendre à ce que leur charge de morbidité soit imputable à
80% aux affections chroniques. L’observance des traitements dans ces pays ne dépasse guère 20%, d’où
des résultats médiocres en termes de santé et des coûts très élevés pour la société, les gouvernements et
les familles. Les systèmes de santé, pourtant, n’ont pas de plan relatif à la prise en charge des affections
chroniques et se contentent de traiter les symptômes à mesure qu’ils apparaissent.
Consciente de l’opportunité d’améliorer les soins de santé pour les affections chroniques, l’OMS a
lancé un nouveau projet Des soins novateurs pour les affections chroniques. La première phase de ce projet
a consisté à définir et analyser les meilleures pratiques et les modèles de soins de santé économiquement
accessibles pour les affections chroniques, et à faire le point de la situation. Des experts, des organisations
et des établissements internationaux ont été associés à ces travaux.
Des soins novateurs pour les affections chroniques: éléments constitutifs décrit le travail accompli, à savoir la
mise en place d’un cadre de grande envergure devant permettre l’actualisation des soins de santé compte
tenu des besoins liés aux affections chroniques. Les éléments proposés et le cadre général faciliteront la
prévention et la prise en charge des maladies dans les services de soins de santé. Cela est d’autant plus
important que la plupart des affections chroniques peuvent être prévenues. Réunis pour examiner ces
stratégies et le cadre général, les décideurs ont estimé qu’ils étaient de nature à résister, que les pays en
développement soient appelés, selon le scénario, à faire face à une épidémie de VIH/SIDA, à l’exode
des ressources humaines qualifiées vers le secteur privé, à un effondrement général de l’économie ou à
un changement de gouvernement. Les participants ont également jugé que le cadre était adapté à des
affections chroniques diverses, y compris le VIH/SIDA, la tuberculose, les maladies cardio-vasculaires,
le diabète et les troubles mentaux de longue durée.
Les étapes suivantes incluront des projets de démonstration de la mise en oeuvre des stratégies décrites dans
ce rapport. Les partenaires de la santé publique seront étroitement associés à la réalisation de ce projet.
Ce rapport sera très utile pour les décideurs, les planificateurs des services de santé et les autres parties
intéressées qui envisagent de prendre des mesures pour réduire les menaces que les maladies chroniques
font peser sur la santé des citoyens, le système de soins de santé et l’économie nationale.