- Porto Alegre/RS - Brazil
In 2008, Russia began to implement its largest military reform since the creation of the Red Army in 1918. Previous attempts at reforms in 1992, 1997, and 2003 did not result in fundamental transformations to the country's military. Why... more
In 2008, Russia began to implement its largest military reform since the creation of the Red Army in 1918. Previous attempts at reforms in 1992, 1997, and 2003 did not result in fundamental transformations to the country's military. Why was the 2008 military reform successful while others were not? This article uses the comparative-historical method to identify the causal mechanisms between Russia's level of external threat, state capacity, and internal balancing strategies adopted since 1991. It advances Neoclassical Realism's systemic and unit-level variables by building on the long-established contributions from Strategic Studies and Historical Sociology instead of relying on other International Relations theories. It concludes that the success of Russia's military reforms in the post-Cold War period depended on the simultaneous existence of three conditions: the possibility of disrupting strategic stability, its ability to extract and mobilize societal resources, and the presence of some event of proven ineffectiveness. Under scenarios in which only one or two of these conditions were present, Russia carried out only partial military reforms. The article sheds light on three often-neglected drivers of Russia's military reform by Western analysts: its enduring emphasis on interstate competition, strategic stability, and mid-to-high intensity conventional warfare.
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The burden-sharing debate has been a main issue for NATO since its creation. Even during the Cold War, the United States repeatedly demanded a more equal burden-sharing formula within NATO, although it never carried out its threats to... more
The burden-sharing debate has been a main issue for NATO since its creation. Even during the Cold War, the United States repeatedly demanded a more equal burden-sharing formula within NATO, although it never carried out its threats to disengage from the Alliance. Scholars have developed alliance models and collective-action theories to address the issue. Nonetheless, there are few dialogues between security and political economy perspectives. This article advances such discussion by proposing the incorporation of a bargaining conceptual framework since members of an alliance have to make decisions taking into account historical and geographic contingencies. Hence, it addresses the organization’s decision-making process and common budget as well NATO’s burden-sharing historical experience. Finally, it draws conclusions and raises problems concerning defense-burden in NATO and the future prospects of this debate within a changing geopolitical scenario.
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This article explains changes in strategic stability through a path dependence framework, discussing its antecedent conditions, increasing returns, cleavages, critical junctures, reactive sequences, and legacy. We identify the leading... more
This article explains changes in strategic stability through a path dependence framework, discussing its antecedent conditions, increasing returns, cleavages, critical junctures, reactive sequences, and legacy. We identify the leading causes of its formation, reproduction, modification, and, eventually, its end. Such an analysis is relevant as far as we observe significant changes in cornerstone’s aspects of strategic stability after the abrogation of the ABM Treaty and the INF Treaty. We argue that strategic stability as an institution passes through radical modifications produced by reactive sequences breaking the causal loop that allowed its reproduction since its formation.
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O presente artigo analisa as contradições da manutenção da ordem liberal em um cenário de retorno de competição entre grandes potências. Apesar da atual crise na ordem liberal, entende-se que tal crise seja acompanhada também de um... more
O presente artigo analisa as contradições da manutenção da ordem liberal em um cenário de retorno de competição entre grandes potências. Apesar da atual crise na ordem liberal, entende-se que tal crise seja acompanhada também de um movimento de mudanças materiais na estrutura sistêmica. Em termos materiais, a possibilidade do fim do comando dos comuns e da existência de zonas contestadas cede espaço ao retorno de esferas de influência, com implicações diretas para a ordem internacional. Neste sentido, analisa-se a relação entre mudanças na ordem liberal e o crescente processo de endogenização de componentes críticos e de cadeias de suprimentos globais por parte dos Estados Unidos e China, a partir de documentos oficiais, relatórios e aspectos empíricos. Em suma, a crise da ordem liberal é fruto de mudanças materiais do sistema internacional e as diferentes respostas de diferentes países frente ao aumento da competição interestatal terão efeitos duradouros na própria reordenação da ordem vindoura.
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Through a critical bias, this article aims to analyze the implications of unipolarity for balancing behavior. In order to do so, it discusses the dynamics of balance of power theory, assumed to be inoperative in the post-Cold War period... more
Through a critical bias, this article aims to analyze the implications of unipolarity for balancing behavior. In order to do so, it discusses the dynamics of balance of power theory, assumed to be inoperative in the post-Cold War period by main academic debates over unipolarity: i) unipolar stability; ii) balance of threats; iii) soft balancing; iv) liberal institutionalism. We argue that these approaches, including the unipolar illusion view, tied to the balance of power theory, overestimate the effects of unipolarity on balancing behavior of other states. In this sense, we assume here that issues related to the unipolar moment are directly connected to discussions on hegemonic interregnum. Concluding that balance of power dynamics, especially those of hard balancing, are still observed in the post-Cold War era, we criticize two main conclusions from the literature: i) that balancing became inoperative and; ii) that the only available strategies to other states are soft balancing and bandwagoning. In sum, this conclusion has directly implication on strategies available both to the United States and to its main competitors.
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This article deals with the hypothesis, widespread in the American literature, of Russia’s “geopolitical return” to Latin America. In order to do that, it is divided into two main sections. The first section presents a brief history of... more
This article deals with the hypothesis, widespread in the American literature, of Russia’s “geopolitical return” to Latin America. In order to do that, it is divided into two main sections. The first section presents a brief history of military-technical cooperation between Russia and some Latin American countries after the Cold War. In this regard, it analyzes the development in Russian bilateral military equipment exports to Latin America. The second section highlights the bilateral relations between Russia and Brazil regarding military cooperation. It offers an overview of their diplomatic relations, clarifying the context in which a “strategic partnership” was established between Moscow and Brasilia. In addition, it seeks to explore the main bilateral agreements on defense issues, and the obstacles hindering more effective cooperation in this area. The article closes with some final remarks.
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O presente trabalho busca descrever e analisar um possível “retorno geopolítico”, consensual na literatura norte-americana, da Rússia na América Latina. Para isso, divide-se o artigo em duas partes principais. Na primeira seção,... more
O presente trabalho busca descrever e analisar um possível “retorno geopolítico”, consensual na literatura norte-americana, da Rússia na América Latina. Para isso, divide-se o artigo em duas partes principais. Na primeira seção, apresenta-se um breve histórico da cooperação técnico-militar entre a Rússia e alguns países da América Latina no pós-Guerra Fria. Investiga-se, nesse sentido, o desenvolvimento bilateral no que tange principalmente à exportação de equipamentos militares russos para os países latino-americanos. Na segunda seção, destaca-se o relacionamento bilateral entre a Rússia e o Brasil no que se refere à cooperação militar. Nesse sentido, apresenta-se um breve histórico das relações diplomáticas entre os dois países, no intuito de elucidar o contexto do desenvolvimento da “parceria estratégica” entre Moscou e Brasília. Além disso, no limiar desta parceria, procura-se explorar os principais acordos bilaterais em matéria de defesa e os entraves que impedem uma cooperação mais efetiva nesta área. Por fim, o artigo encerra-se com algumas observações finais.
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El presente artículo aborda la hipótesis, generalizada en la literatura de EUA, del «retorno geopolítico» de Rusia a Latinoamérica. Para hacerlo, el artículo está dividido en dos secciones principales. En la primera sección, se presenta... more
El presente artículo aborda la hipótesis, generalizada en la literatura de EUA, del «retorno geopolítico» de Rusia a Latinoamérica. Para hacerlo, el artículo está dividido en dos secciones principales. En la primera sección, se presenta una breve historia de la cooperación técnico-militar entre Rusia y algunos países latinoamericanos después de la Guerra Fría. En este respecto, se analiza el desarrollo de las exportaciones bilaterales de equipamiento militar ruso a Latinoamérica. En la segunda sección, se destacan las relaciones bilaterales entre Rusia y Brasil en cuanto a la cooperación militar. Se ofrece una visión general de sus relaciones diplomáticas, clarificando el contexto en que en que se estableció la «asociación estratégica» entre Moscú y Brasilia. Además, se intenta explorar los acuerdos bilaterales principales sobre los asuntos de defensa y los obstá- culos que dificultan la cooperación eficaz en esta área. Se concluye el artículo con algunos comentarios finales.
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On March 1st, 2018 Putin made its yearly statement at the Federal Assembly of Russia. The reactions of international specialist were diverse, mostly because of the emphasis given in the address to the new line of weaponry developed by the... more
On March 1st, 2018 Putin made its yearly statement at the Federal Assembly of Russia. The reactions of international specialist were diverse, mostly because of the emphasis given in the address to the new line of weaponry developed by the country: hypersonic missiles, ballistic missiles nuclear-powered, undersea drones nucleararmed and nuclear-powered, and other diversity of equipment were presented to the world. The major discussion between those scholars is related to the responsibility, both of Russia and the U.S., in possibly triggering another arms race. Most analysis focus on a short-term view of the events, especially on empirical facts and, therefore, lacking a theoretical frame to evaluate the situation. This paper seeks to understand the dynamics that resulted in the precipitation of this new competition, using theories that embrace internal balancing, military emulation, innovation and offsetting. Our focus is then, less a description of what was addressed by Putin, and more a theoretical review of the impacts of the deployment of such weaponry for the international politics.
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O presente artigo busca descrever e analisar as principais continuidades e alterações da Doutrina Militar, da Estratégia de Segurança Nacional e do Conceito de Política Externa da Rússia, bem como os imperativos para tais mudanças e a... more
O presente artigo busca descrever e analisar as principais continuidades e alterações da Doutrina Militar, da Estratégia de Segurança Nacional e do Conceito de Política Externa da Rússia, bem como os imperativos para tais mudanças e a visão de Moscou sobre o sistema internacional após 2014.
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The question that guides this paper is: how Russia and the world order are described by the american Think Tank Council on Foreign Relations? The main hypothesis is that: the discursive patterns of CFR toward Russia and the world order... more
The question that guides this paper is: how Russia and the world order are described by the american Think Tank Council
on Foreign Relations? The main hypothesis is that: the discursive patterns of CFR toward Russia and the world order are associated
with its liberal values and consequently seek to shape them into these values. Therefore, the main objective of this work is to
describe and analyze how Putin’s Russia and the liberal order are represented in thematic Foreign Affairs magazine published by
the CFR. In addition, there is two specific objectives: i) analyze the patters of consensus and discursive dissent about both themes
in each of the dossiers and; ii) anaylze the hypotheses that could be related to the predominance of a givern discursive pattern
observed in the dossiers. The work is justified insofar as: i) there is a moment of change in the Relations of the United States with
Russia and the world order and; ii) it seeks to analyze the discursive production of a Think tank that has great influence in the
agenda setting of the foreign policy of the United States.
on Foreign Relations? The main hypothesis is that: the discursive patterns of CFR toward Russia and the world order are associated
with its liberal values and consequently seek to shape them into these values. Therefore, the main objective of this work is to
describe and analyze how Putin’s Russia and the liberal order are represented in thematic Foreign Affairs magazine published by
the CFR. In addition, there is two specific objectives: i) analyze the patters of consensus and discursive dissent about both themes
in each of the dossiers and; ii) anaylze the hypotheses that could be related to the predominance of a givern discursive pattern
observed in the dossiers. The work is justified insofar as: i) there is a moment of change in the Relations of the United States with
Russia and the world order and; ii) it seeks to analyze the discursive production of a Think tank that has great influence in the
agenda setting of the foreign policy of the United States.
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The main essay aims to present issues related to the problematic in which the use of concepts of wars are envolved. It propose, thus, to establish minimally defined criterea so that we can distinguish wars through qualitative or... more
The main essay aims to present issues related to the problematic in which
the use of concepts of wars are envolved. It propose, thus, to establish
minimally defined criterea so that we can distinguish wars through qualitative or quantitative inferences.
the use of concepts of wars are envolved. It propose, thus, to establish
minimally defined criterea so that we can distinguish wars through qualitative or quantitative inferences.
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The rise of China and power transition: conflict among the neorealist and the neoliberal theories Augusto César Dall'Agnol 2 RESUMO O objetivo deste artigo é comparar duas abordagens teóricas sobre a ascensão da China e a possível... more
The rise of China and power transition: conflict among the neorealist and the neoliberal theories Augusto César Dall'Agnol 2 RESUMO O objetivo deste artigo é comparar duas abordagens teóricas sobre a ascensão da China e a possível transição de poder decorrente da mesma, especificamente as perspectivas de Joseph S. Nye e John J. Mearsheimer. Expor-se-á, portanto, as distintas abordagens em relação a ascensão chinesa e aos reajustes de poder no sistema internacional. ABSTRACT This article focuses on the rise of China and the power transition through the two main approaches that the international relations theories have about this subject, specifically from Joseph S. Nye and John J. Mearsheimer. Finally, this paper shows the diferents approaches about the rise of China and the rearrange of power in the international system.
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Este trabalho busca compreender quais foram as dinâmicas que permearam o movimento Vem pra Rua em junho de 2013. Entende-se, então, que houve uma crise de mediação política no Brasil e que os partidos políticos já não se constituiriam em... more
Este trabalho busca compreender quais foram as dinâmicas que permearam o movimento Vem pra Rua em junho de 2013. Entende-se, então, que houve uma crise de mediação política no Brasil e que os partidos políticos já não se constituiriam em entidades com credibilidade perante a sociedade. Neste sentido, utiliza-se aqui do método dedutivo e da revisão bibliográfica acerca de quatro questões que se correlacionam ao longo do artigo: i) junho de 2013; ii) tragédia da política; iii) poder, Estado e legitimidade e; iv) crise política e vulnerabilidade dos partidos, a fim de compreender o sentido de governabilidade, governança, legitimidade e credibilidade no contexto do movimento de junho de 2013. Por fim, conclui-se que houve catarse, ou seja, um enfraquecimento do ímpeto para a ação sem terse concluído o ato, ou tendo-se concluído apenas um ato que não chega a alterar fatores significativos. Abstract This paper aims to discuss which were the dynamics that permeated the " Vem pra Rua " protests in June 2013. We understand that there was a crisis of political mediation in Brazil and that the political parties are no longer entities with credibility towards society. In this way, we use here the deductive approach and literature review about four topics that are correlated throughout the paper: i) June 2013; ii) tragedy of politics; iii) power, State and legitimacy and; iv) political crisis and the vulnerability of the political parties, in order to understand the meaning of governability, governance, legitimacy and credibility in the context of June 2013. Finally, we conclude that there
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A tragédia da política não pode ser apartada do mundo dos homens. Designamos como tragédia da política a “tragédia da ação”, a qual o filósofo Eduardo Rinesi (2009) considera à circunstância de que as capacidades desse ator político... more
A tragédia da política não pode ser apartada
do mundo dos homens. Designamos como
tragédia da política a “tragédia da ação”, a qual o
filósofo Eduardo Rinesi (2009) considera à circunstância
de que as capacidades desse ator político
encontram-se sempre num conflito, de resultado
incerto, com o que a história apresenta de contingente
e de imprevisível. O pensamento trágico,
que possui o conflito como matéria, é o tema do
pensamento político de Maquiavel e Shakespeare.
Buscaremos analisar a forma como os dois autores
percebem os governantes em momentos de
crise e de tentativa de manutenção de poder a partir
de aspectos generalizantes, não especificando
atos, cenas, diálogos, personagens. Ambos os autores
realistas veem a lógica do mundo político
sob uma perspectiva em que o inexorável e o absurdo
coexistem sob a sombra do ingovernável,
incontrolável, incognoscível. Busca-se, com isso,
compreender o entendimento dos autores quanto
à crise de governabilidade e, por fim, a forma
como os atores políticos atuam frente a virtù e
a fortuna. Utilizaremos do método hermenêutico
e como técnica de pesquisa a bibliográfica.
do mundo dos homens. Designamos como
tragédia da política a “tragédia da ação”, a qual o
filósofo Eduardo Rinesi (2009) considera à circunstância
de que as capacidades desse ator político
encontram-se sempre num conflito, de resultado
incerto, com o que a história apresenta de contingente
e de imprevisível. O pensamento trágico,
que possui o conflito como matéria, é o tema do
pensamento político de Maquiavel e Shakespeare.
Buscaremos analisar a forma como os dois autores
percebem os governantes em momentos de
crise e de tentativa de manutenção de poder a partir
de aspectos generalizantes, não especificando
atos, cenas, diálogos, personagens. Ambos os autores
realistas veem a lógica do mundo político
sob uma perspectiva em que o inexorável e o absurdo
coexistem sob a sombra do ingovernável,
incontrolável, incognoscível. Busca-se, com isso,
compreender o entendimento dos autores quanto
à crise de governabilidade e, por fim, a forma
como os atores políticos atuam frente a virtù e
a fortuna. Utilizaremos do método hermenêutico
e como técnica de pesquisa a bibliográfica.