Backcasting

Water management strategies in times of global change need to be developed within a complex and uncertain environment. Scenarios are often used to deal with uncertainty. A novel backcasting methodology has been tested in which a normative objective (e.g. adaptive water management) is backcasted within the context of exploratory scenarios that sketch four different plausible futures (Economy First, Policy Rules, Fortress Europe, and Sustainability Eventually). The main advantage of combining exploratory and normative scenarios is in the identification of robust actions: actions that are effective in the different socio-environmental contexts sketched in the exploratory scenarios. This paper has three objectives: (1) to present the methodology, focussing on its novel aspects (2) to test the methodology and evaluate its perceived success by analysing organiser and stakeholder feedback and (3) to analyse and evaluate the results, in order to study the impact of the exploratory scenarios on the backcasting results and the added value of robust actions. The methodology was successfully tested in 9 local and one regional case study in a water project (SCENES). Results showed that the exploratory scenarios influenced the content of the backcasts, thus making the identification of robust strategies possible. The list of robust strategies includes both technological and social/organisational strategies, highlighting the need for an integrated approach. The approach shows high potential, but as the methodology is in its infancy more research is needed, particularly in methods to facilitate and monitor information flow between exploratory scenarios and backcasts.

This paper outlines an emerging Transition Design approach for addressing " wicked " problems (such as climate change, loss of biodiversity, crime, poverty, pollution, etc.) and catalysing societal transitions toward more sustainable and desirable futures. Wicked problems are " systems problems " that exist within large, socio-technical systems and therefore require new problem-solving approaches. The Transition Design Framework brings together an evolving body of practices that can be used to: 1. visualize and " map " complex problems and their interconnections and interdependencies; 2. situate them within large, spatio-temporal contexts; 3. identify and bridge stakeholder conflicts and leverage alignments; 4. facilitate stakeholders in the co-creation of visions of desirable futures; 5. identify leverage points in the large problem system in which to situate design interventions. Rather than a fixed, templatised process, the Transition Design Framework provides a logic for bringing together an evolving set of practices relevant to designing for systems level change. This paper reports on how this approach is being tested on a community based project that was informed by classroom based coursework. A new, design-led approach is needed to address the complex, wicked problems confronting societies in the 21 st century (Hughes & Steffen, 2013; Jensen, 2017) and to seed and catalyse societal transitions toward more sustainable and desirable long-term futures (Porritt, 2013, pp 274-276).

Bottled water emerged as a global phenomenon in the 1970s and has offered an alternative to tap water. In Czech Republic, consumers were used to drinking tap water on a daily basis as there was almost no bottled water on the market prior to 1989. Now, the country has an annual consumption of bottled water around 60 litres per capita. This master thesis looks at the controversy of tap versus bottled water and finds that bottled water may not make sense from an evironmental and financial point of view, but offers consumers a compelling story and convenience. I have selected a small Central Bohemian town of Říčany u Prahy for a backcasting case study for sustainable hydration. The main findings are that tap water can be better promoted if remunicipalised and available outdoors via drinking fountains. In a blind-tasting experiment, 85% of people couldn’t tell the difference between tap water, bottled spring water, and bottled drinking water. Moreover, 70% of people gave tap water the same or better grade for taste. Awareness about the environmental and social dimension of bottled water is necessary to reach a defined vision for sustainable hydration.

Design education needs to recognise the changing world it services. The way that we live our lives is very different to that of our parents. No doubt the way our children will live their lives will be very different to ours. We exist in an ever changing world. Design education must recognise this constant change and develop long term strategies that enable designers to not only be aware of, but play a major role in this change. Futures thinking – the systematic study of the future – provides design with a structured approach to consider potential futures.

Creating ecologically sustainable ways of life is desirable, necessary, and urgent for the collective future of life on Earth. Although this is acknowledged, aspired to, and increasingly pursued in action, broad-scale sustainability remains unrealised. Western cities offer a strategic place to exemplify and accelerate global sustainability transitions. Such cities are characterised by dense human populations with excessive per capita resource use, but they can also be cornucopias of economic development, progressive politics, and diverse culture and correspondingly act at global hotspots of innovation and change. This exploratory research proposes pragmatic backcasted pathways for furthering such change, constructing future visions of more sustainable ways of life in Western cities, identifying presentday barriers to realising these, and generating practical solutions ‘here and now’ that could contribute strategically to overcoming the barriers, towards a sustainable future. An insight and foresight rich distillation of evidence-based knowledge and practical experience was generated to inform these pathways, through qualitative interviews with 25 esteemed experts specialising in fields of socio-ecology and cities, including planning, design, sociology, psychology, philosophy, art, activism, economics, and government. To analyse this data and conceptualise alternative pathways, ‘ecological habitus’, an emergent socio-ecological theory, was developed and employed as a practical framework for conceptually linking broad-scale socio-ecological issues with everyday practice; analysing the inter-dependent variables (e.g. normative, material, social, and psychological) of social reproduction and change; and assessing their sustainability at different scales (e.g. individual and institutional). Two components were added to the theory: ‘natural capital’ (the ecological/biophysical factors within socio-ecological relationships), and ‘ecological reflexivity’ (people’s responses to natural capital whether intentional-critical, periodic-conscious, or routine-subconscious). These enhance ecological habitus as a versatile tool for socio-ecological and sustainability-transition research.The ultimate research outcomes are three backcasted pathways towards a future of ‘sustainable ecological habitus’, which could begin pragmatically with: collaborative practice among city authorities to develop as ecologically-reflexive sustainability leaders and overcome disciplinary silos; strategic enrichment of cities with accessible, place-based natural capital to enhance human-nature connection; and everyday self-, or socially-directed sustainability micro-interventions among city-dwellers, to incrementally grow mainstream sustainable ecological habitus. These actions combined could accelerate sustainable ecological habitus in Western cities and beyond. The power is ours.

Despite the high profile of climate change in scientific and policy discourse, the Russian government has thus far failed to commit to an emission reduction target based on the latest science. Given Russia is a key supplier of fossil fuels, a major greenhouse gas emitter, and climate impacts on its vast territory likely to have far-reaching consequences, this contextual research shows that the country's current policies fall woefully short of what is required to implement the Paris Agreement. To support Russia in developing informed, internally consistent and scientifically literate energy policies, this paper presents low-carbon emission trajectories commensurate with the 2 °C goal, using stakeholder-informed backcasting. The results illustrate that even if Russia's CO2 emissions peak in 2017, a reduction rate of at least 9% per year between 2020 and 2030 is required to meet a 2°C budget constraint. These sustained rates are in excess of anything achieved globally or, indeed, deemed possible within most studies. Such emission reductions would involve unprecedented material changes to Russia's energy system, including both rapidly cutting energy demand and building extensive low-carbon infrastructures. Nevertheless, failure to transform Russia's existing policies will likely have global repercussions for achieving the Paris Agreement's goals.

"Development of sustainable technologies is increasingly becoming a common business practice. The major challenge faced by product development teams is to link the present to future over a long-term technology development phase in order to break existing path-dependencies and create innovation paths towards sustainability. Another problem is to
identify criteria for new technologies to be sustainable. The previous scenario development studies for envisioning sustainable technologies provide a sound ground to build on while demonstrating some weaknesses needing to be
improved. This paper provides a critical analysis of previous studies in terms of the extent of the coevolutionary approach to innovation, the time frames used and the measure of sustainability adopted. Following this critical analysis, outline of a new scenario methodology is given. This new methodology builds on the multi-level perspective on innovation and incorporates risk into this perspective as a measure of sustainability. The new methodology also proposes a double-flow approach for scenario development, one starting from present and flowing forwards and the other starting from future and flowing backwards in order to be able to identify possible innovation paths over a long period of time."

This paper aims to provide insight into how to cope with complexity and uncertainty in decision making on flood resilience in 13 pilot areas in five countries. This study is part of the Interreg North Sea region project FRAMES. In the pilots different actors work on the exploration and implementation of diversified strategies for flood resilience, based on multiple elements of the disaster management cycle. To gain understanding of the complexity these actors are facing, we discuss more generic insights in climate change adaptation and the complexity of joint action. Since the decisions to be made in the pilot regions depend on the uncertainties about the future, we investigate the supporting role of backcasting and Dynamic Adaptation Policy Pathways in making robust decisions in our present volatile world. Against this backdrop the current flood risk governance arrangements of the participating countries are compared by employing and extending the analysis of the STARFLOOD project (Matczak et al., 2016). These countries differ in their approach towards flood resilience, involving different types of decisions to be made. This variety reflects their historical coevolution with country specific governance settings. In this paper we present our preliminary findings of the transnational learning process within the FRAMES project. In two workshops we have discussed the challenges and complexities considering adaptive strategies for flood resilience. Furthermore we will reflect on the preliminary results of the learning process, flood risk governance arrangements and the presented theoretical background. We will conclude that adaptive planning can support regions in dealing with the complexity and uncertainty in the decision-making and strategy development for flood resilience. Elements of both backcasting and DAPP can complement each other in a co-evolutionary planning approach for flood resilience.

Social, natural and cultural systems are changing rapidly, influencing the future of Europe's fresh waters. One of the drivers shaping this future is the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Participatory scenario development is well-suited to the challenges posed by the WFD to develop a long-term view by involving stakeholders. In this paper we analyse the process and results of a series of stakeholder workshops to develop scenarios at pan-European level. Specifically, we aim at analysing the method and results of combining a backcasting methodology and exploratory scenario development process. Four exploratory scenarios (narrative storylines) were developed, in first instance based on a set of existing European scenarios. Results matched expectations; the process produced stories that are complex, integrated, and rich in detail. During the backcasting exercise, four timelines were constructed, each of which took one exploratory scenario as context. The backcasting process established a strong link with the exploratory scenarios by identifying a large number of obstacles and opportunities in the realisation of those timelines. An analysis across all backcasts yielded a list of 15 robust elements, i.e. elements that are potentially effective in all exploratory scenarios. A stakeholder questionnaire showed that overall there was a widespread satisfaction with both the process and the results. Stakeholders were satisfied with the overall methodology and the exploratory scenarios and somewhat more critical on the backcasting exercise and resulting robust strategies. Above all, we hope to have demonstrated that it is conceptually appealing, methodologically feasible, and practically useful to combine exploratory scenario development and backcasting analysis.

Harry Harrison’s 1966 novel, Make Room! Make Room!, is a science fiction based work that proposes a dystopian future that is primarily caused by unchecked population growth. The story is set in New York City in the year 1999 and it takes the reader on a series of journeys that follow a tangled web between the principal characters of Andy Rusch, a police detective, Solomon Kahn, an aged-pragmatist, Shirl Greene, a concubine and interest of Andy Rusch, and Billy Chung, a Taiwanese immigrant who is suspected of murder. Each character is introduced to the reader against a backdrop of cataclysmic failures that have resulted in social collapse and disaster. It is these failures that are the foundation of this interdisciplinary research paper, and the research expects to show how using backcasting that the world could achieve most, if not all, the predictions in Harrison’s novel. In addition to the novel, this research will rely upon the use of the closely-based motion picture, Soylent Green (1973), to make further contrast and comparisons. By using both the novel and the movie, this research can highlight subtle differences and better explain how a theory in Public Administration, Sociology, Economics, and History may better apply to one scenario as opposed to the others.

The formulation of policies requires the selection and configuration of effective and acceptable courses of action to reach explicit goals. A one-size-fits-all policy is unlikely to achieve the desired goals; as a result, the identification of a suite of alternative policies, together with clear indications of their trade-offs, is crucial to accommodate the diversity of stakeholders’ preferences. At present, the formulation of transport policies is done manually; this fact, together with the size of the space of possible policies, results in a large part of that space being left unexplored. A six-step framework to explore the space of alternative transport policies in order to achieve environmental targets is proposed. The process starts with a user-defined set of specific policy measures, using them as building blocks in the generation of alternative policy packages, clusters and future images according to the user's preferences and goals.The analysis framework is based on the visioning and backcasting approach used in the VIBAT report [Banister, D., & Hickman, R. (2006a). Visioning and backcasting for UK transport policy (VIBAT) project. Department for Transport's Horizons Research Programme 2004/06. The Bartlett school of planning and Halcrow Group Ltd. Retrieved 1/18/2008 http://www.ucl.ac.uk/∼ucft696/vibat2.html]. The framework is being implemented as a prototype decision support system around a case study: the formulation and analysis of policies required to achieve CO2 emission targets for the transport sector in the UK. Important insights on how to develop the framework have also been elicited from engineering design. The goal is to accelerate the task of policy-making and improve the effectiveness of the resulting policies.The proposed method and computer implementation is fundamentally different from the tools commonly used in the transport sector and is intended to assist (not replace) transport policy makers, and complement (not substitute nor compete with) existing mathematical modelling tools. This research constitutes the first step towards the development of a general family of computer-based systems that support the design of policies to achieve environmental targets—not only for transport, but also for other sectors such as energy and water.

The paper reports on a comparative study of three different cases on vision and strategy development for climate change adaptation planning in (i) The South African Breede–Overberg Catchment, (ii) The Mississippi Estuary-New Orleans region and (iii) The Dutch Rhine-Meuse Estuary. The objective of the paper is twofold: to develop a better understanding of such processes and to further develop the Backcasting-Adaptive Management (BCAM) methodology. A framework for case evaluation is developed using six dimensions: (i) inputs and resources, (ii) future vision, (iii) stakeholder engagement, (iv) methodological aspects, (v) pathway development and (vi) impact. Major conclusions based on a cross-case comparison and testing propositions are (i) participatory vision development is a strong tool for climate change adaptation planning in different governance contexts and shows considerable diversity in its application in these contexts; (ii) a single, shared future vision is not a prerequisite for vision and pathway development and endorsement; (iii) broad stakeholder engagement enriches strategy development, but the involvement of marginal groups requires additional efforts and capacity building; (iv) multiple pathways and robust elements are useful but require novel expertise; and (v) more institutional embeddedness and support for participatory processes lead to better implementation of the outcomes of these processes.

The sustainability transformation calls for policies that consider the global consequences of local lifestyles. We used stakeholders' visions of sustainable lifestyles across Europe to build 19 scenarios of sufficiency (net reductions) and 17 of green consumption (shift in consumption patterns). We applied Environmentally Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output analysis to model scenarios by assuming widespread adoption of the proposed lifestyles changes. Finally, we estimate the domestic and foreign implications for land, water, carbon and human toxicity potential. We distinguish the options with most potential from those that are seemingly fruitless or present backfire risks. While our method allows for testing a large number scenarios under a consistent framework, further work is needed to add robustness to the scenarios. However, we do find a range of indicative results that have strong potential to contribute to mitigation efforts. Services: We find that a local and sharing service economy has a maximum reduction potential of 18% of the European carbon footprint (CF). Clothing & Appliances: Sharing and extending lifetimes of clothes and devices could diminish CF by approximately 3%. Transport: Reducing motorized transport by remote work and active travel could mitigate between 9-26% of CF. Food: Vegan diets could spare 4% of the land and reduce up to 14% of CF. Bio-economy: Switching to biomaterials and bioenergy tend to reduce carbon and toxic emissions at the risk of increasing water and land use. Housing: Passive housing and decentralized renewable energy reduces carbon emissions up to 5 and 14%, respectively. We characterize the sensitivity of our results by modelling income rebound effects and confirm the importance of deterring expenditure in resource intensive goods.

This chapter explores the strategic implementation of the cradle-to-cradle concept and suggests backcasting using sustainability principles as a systematic way to support decision-makers. The cradle to cradle concept seeks to learn from nature and to design using principles that emphasize the conversion of waste into food, the use of solar energy inputs, and the celebration of diversity. As such, it facilitates organizational transition toward enabling a societal infrastructure by participating in cyclical supply chains – a valuable complement to the green supply chain approach to organizational collaboration for sustainability. The specific contribution of this chapter to the cradle-to-cradle literature focuses on the integration of cradle-to-cradle design within a systems approach that permits analysis from a strategic sustainable development perspective. After usefully comparing cradle-to-cradle design principles with FSSD principles for sustainability, the authors integrate science-based principles with value-based principles as an asset to support backcasting using overarching sustainability constraints drawn from scientific principles for socio-economic sustainability. This framework is one that decision-makers can use flexibly to make mid-course corrections in the march toward a societal infrastructure that supports a targeted system in which all material flows are either part of a biological or a technical metabolism.

Keywords  Strategic sustainable development - Cradle-to-cradle - Systems approach backcasting - Sustainability principles - Decision-making

Motivations:
- Explore academic concepts of community, visioning and universities' roles and responsibilities.
- Develop a conceptual understanding of the St Andrews "community".
- Identify how Transition: University of St Andrews (www.transitionsta.org) can more effectively initiate practical sustainability action in collaboration with the wider community.
Aims:
- Explore perceptions of the St Andrews community.
- Identify visions for the future for the community of St Andrews.
- Determine how the University is perceived to influence and relate to the community of St Andrews

The future implementation of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) in cities can have significant impacts, both positive and negative, on their sustainability. The objective of this research is to investigate those impacts and evaluate which policies could be most effective in achieving the desired city scenario through a backcasting planning methodology. To this end, a survey among experts was carried out in which they expressed their opinions on the potential consequences of AVs in cities and on the effectiveness of various policy packages focused on achieving a more sustainable mobility and land use planning. The results obtained show that the experts consulted were sceptical about the positive impacts of AVs, arguing that they could induce an increase in car trips and urban sprawl. The policies that could be most effective in mitigating these effects, leading to a city more aligned with the planned objectives would be: to strengthen active (foot, bicycle) and public transport modes, to rest...

In climate change mitigation, backcasting scenarios are often used for exploring options for achieving a single environmental goal, albeit at the expense of other goals. This paper assesses potential conflicts and synergies between multiple environmental policy goals based on four future scenarios on Swedish rural land use, assuming zero GHG emissions in 2060. The assessment shows that goal conflicts are apparent, and policy makers need to make trade-offs between goals. The choice of strategy for dealing with these trade-offs yields conflicts or synergies. The assessment shows that a transition to zero GHG emissions provides opportunities for Sweden to shift to carbon free land-use planning. Overall, there are alternative ways with different underlying assumptions to achieve zero GHG emissions, which will feed discussions on new opportunities to overcome multi-scale and multi-sectoral goal conflicts. Multi-target backcasting scenarios are considered more suited to account for the multi-dimensional aspects of goal conflicts. This requires a comprehensive multi-target backcasting approach, which combines the strengths of multicriteria analysis, nexus approaches and backcasting, for supporting a transition to zero GHG emissions.

A supplement to: Van der Voorn, T., Quist, J., Pahl-Wostl, C., Haasnoot, M., (2015). "Envisioning robust climate change adaptation futures for coastal regions: A comparative evaluation of cases in three continents." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.