Conflict Analysis

The massacre of almost 50 Maidan protesters on February 20, 2014 was a turning point in Ukrainian politics and a tipping point in the conflict between the West and Russia over Ukraine. This mass killing of the protesters and the mass shooting of the police that preceded it led to the overthrow of the pro-Russian government of Viktor Yanukovych and gave a start to a civil war in Donbas in Eastern Ukraine, Russian military intervention in Crimea and Donbas, and an international conflict between the West and Russia over Ukraine. A conclusion promoted by the post-Yanukovych governments and the media in Ukraine that the massacre was perpetrated by government snipers and special police units on a Yanukovych order has been nearly universally accepted by the Western governments, the media, and many scholars. The Ukrainian government investigation identified members of the special company of Berkut as responsible for killings of the absolute majority of the protesters, but did not release any evidence in support, with the exception of videos of the massacre.
              The question is which side organized the “snipers’ massacre.” This paper is the first academic study of this crucial case of the mass killing. It uses a theory of rational choice and a Weberian theory of instrumental rationality to examine actions of major actors both from the Yanukovych government, specifically various police and security forces, and the Maidan opposition, specifically its far right and oligarchic elements, during the massacre.
          The paper analyzes a large amount of evidence from different publicly available sources concerning this massacre and killings of specifics protesters. Qualitative content analysis includes the following data: about 1,500 videos and recordings of live internet and TV broadcasts from mass media and social media in different countries(some 150 gigabytes), news reports and social media posts by more than 100 journalists covering the massacre from Kyiv, some 5,000 photos, and nearly 30 gigabytes of publicly available radio intercepts of snipers and commanders from the special Alfa unit of the Security Service of Ukraine and Internal Troops, and Maidan massacre trial recordings. This study also employs field research on site of the massacre, eyewitness reports by both Maidan protesters and government special units commanders, statements by both former and current government officials, estimates of approximate ballistic trajectories, bullets and weapons used, and types of wounds among both protesters and the police. This study establishes a precise timeline for various events of the massacre, the locations of both the shooters and the government snipers, and the specific timeline and locations of nearly 50 protesters’ deaths. It also briefly analyzes other major cases of violence during and after the “Euromaidan.” This study includes two video appendixes.
            This academic investigation concludes that the massacre was a false flag operation, which was rationally planned and carried out with a goal of the overthrow of the government and seizure of power. It found various evidence of the involvement of an alliance of the far right organizations, specifically the Right Sector and Svoboda, and oligarchic parties, such as Fatherland. Concealed shooters and spotters were located in at least 20 Maidan-controlled buildings or areas. The various evidence that the protesters were killed from these locations include some 70 testimonies, primarily by Maidan protesters, several videos of “snipers” targeting protesters from these buildings, comparisons of positions of the specific protesters at the time of their killing and their entry wounds, and bullet impact signs. The study uncovered various videos and photos of armed Maidan “snipers” and spotters in many of these buildings. The paper presents implications of these findings for understanding the nature of the change of the government in Ukraine, the civil war in Donbas, Russian military intervention in Crimea and Donbas, and an international conflict between the West and Russia over Ukraine.

By a data conflict in a distributed system we understand a situation (or a state of the system) in which the system sites generate and store different versions of data which represent the same subject (problem solution, event scenario, etc.). Thus in purpose to solve this problem the management system should determine one proper version for the data. The final data version is called a consensus of given versions. In this paper for given conflict situation we propose to solve a consensus problem by means of a consensus function. We present elements of a consensus system, the postulates for consensus choice functions, their analysis and algorithms for consensus determining.

This volume introduces to the structured conflict analysis as a tool of social science research and uses this instrument exemplarily to analyze systematically and on a broad basis the various conflicts that are associated with Iran both domestically and in foreign policy – beyond popular stereotypes such as the "bomb". The 13 contributions draw a complex picture of the conflicts with and in Iran and reflect the various aspects of these conflicts from different perspectives and at a high methodological and theoretical level. The nuclear program is examined, inter alia through the eyes of four major theories of International Relations. In addition, the analyses are concerned with the regional security dimension, the relationship USA–Iran, the role of national preferences, and the effect of national processes to the Iranian foreign policy.

Since the fall of the Franco's regime in Spain, the Spanish governments have been dealing with the low-intensity conflict in their country, namely the Euskadi Ta Askatusuna (ETA) attacks. This article analyzes the Basque conflict within the framework of the conflict analysis and resolution perspective. First, it highlights the conflict issues among the Basque conflict parties. Second, it clarifies the conflict issues by focusing on kidnapping and assassination done by the ETA during 1990s. The special case of Miguel Angel Blanco who was a local Basque councilman is a case study. In order to shed light on the Blanco case, it is necessary to focus the conflict resolution dynamics of the Basque conflict. Third, the paper aims to examine the Blanco case in terms of conflict issue identification, conflict issue clarification, and conflict cultural analysis perspectives. The issue identification perspective focuses on identity, face, and instrumental issues of the Basque conflict. The issue clarification perspective concentrates on two conflicting parties' perceptions and positions in the conflict. The cultural analysis perspective mainly attempts to analyze the cross-cultural differences between ETA and the Spanish government. Based on the analysis of Miguel Angel Blanco, this study concludes that it is necessary to reframe, re-identify and re-clarify the Basque conflict within the framework of conflict and peace studies.

This training module is the second of three modules to help sensitize public, non-profit and local organizations on understanding conflict sensitivity, learning how to do a “do no harm” analysis, and learning how to integrate conflict sensitivity into the project cycle or work processes.  The INTERMEDIATE module focuses solely on conflict sensitivity analysis through Mary Anderson’s, “Do No Harm” framework.

The purpose of this course on conflict sensitivity is to introduce the participants to the practical analysis of “Do No Harm” as it relates to development work in Kyrgyzstan.  This course will focus on what is “Do No Harm”, why one should try to “Do No Harm,”  how public, non-profit or international organizations can do harm, examples of application of “Do No Harm” principles, and an outline of the steps of process  Doing No Harm analysis.

Esta tese tem como objetivo explicar as motivações e causas que levaram o governo Lula da Silva a propor a criação do Conselho de Defesa Sul-Americano no UNASUL. Para tal efeito, empreendemos a análise das preferências, motivações e comportamento do Brasil quanto à Política Externa e a cooperação em defesa nos níveis doméstico (atores e burocracias), regional (sul-americano) e hemisférico (organizações internacionais). O trabalho realiza uma análise contextual, no sentido de verificar as condições antecedentes ao comportamentobrasileiro a ser explicado. Com base na descrição do contexto e dos processos, realiza-se o estudo da mudança de estratégia do Brasil na área de Defesa e dos seus impactos para a tomada de decisão de criar uma instância regional de cooperação nessa área de política. A essas etapas é somada a análise do processo de negociação do Brasil junto aos demais países sul-americanos para criar o CDS. Por fim, colocamos sob escrutínio o resultado institucional da negociação e os seus limites e possibildades quanto às preferências de Brasília em relação à Política Externa e a dimensão de Defesa. A pesquisa lançou mão do método qualitativo chamado Process Tracing, ou delineamento de processo. A partir do seu uso, empreendemos a análise do material e dos dados coletados. Estes correspondem à literatura empírica sobre o CDS e teórica sobre Política Externa e Cooperação em Defesa; Documentos de Política, Reportagens, Entrevistas, Transcrições de Audiências Públicas e Relatórios Técnicos. Com base em dados primordialmente documentais, primários e secundários, apresentamos resultados que nos levaram a concluir que baseado em preferências pela manutenção do status quo regional e na maximização da sua segurança, o Brasil progressivamente muda a sua estratégia de articulação entre a expressão militar do poder e a sua atuação exterior, passando com isso a tomar uma postura protagônica na organização da ordem regional em termos de defesa e segurança. Concluímos com a explicação em que afirma que o Brasil, vendo-se balanceado e tendo a sua percepção de segurança afetada negativamente por dinâmicas de conflito que não podia controlar, toma como motivação o balanceamento e a “cooperação como autoajuda” para propor a criação do CDS UNASUL.

Palavras-chave: Conselho de Defesa Sul-Americano. Política Externa. Cooperação em Defesa. Brasil. Delineamento de Processo.

Abstract: In this paper we investigate the social dynamics that may drive social unrest events. While this has been extensively studied recently and the general patterns regarding the distribution of event-sizes and timings are well-known, we delve deeper into the problem and attempt to gain an insight into individual event dynamics. Using an event classification based on news reports from the Global Database of Events, Language and Tone (GDELT), we study social unrest events of different types across different scales and timelines and find that there is an underlying repetitive pattern in their dynamic. Using this information, we postulate a system dynamics model and simulate it for various types of social unrest for the period covered by GDELT, including all armed conflicts and major protests between 1979 and 2014. We find that the great majority of unrests are characterized by very similar diffusion and decay rates, independent of their place, time or duration, thus implying a scale-free structure. What is even more interesting is that the variation of these parameters is also small when comparing across different unrest types, such as conflicts and nonviolent protests. The Achilles-heel of the analysis is the establishment of the correlation between actual events and the news reports covering them, for which there is limited literature. We demonstrate the validity of this conjecture through semantic mining in Wikipedia and the BBC Country Profiles databases. We close with a discussion about the possible universality of the found dynamics and their extensibility to dynamics disaster relief programs or social gatherings.

From a Western perspective, the Ukraine Crisis seems easy to judge: Russia is the aggressor and poses a threat to peace and security. Consequently, the reactions of the US and NATO are only defensive. Although the US and NATO may not have offensive or aggressive motivations for their deployment strategies towards the western border of Russia, Moscow may perceive otherwise.The crucial point here is not that the perception of the Ukraine Crisis lies in the eye of the beholder, but that we are too blind to see how far we threatened Russia and drove Moscow into that crisis, just as Kennedy was too blind to see how much the US nuclear
missiles in Turkey threatened Khrushchev. I believe that the psychological phenomenon of inattentional blindness offers an explanation for the escalation of both the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Ukraine Crisis.

Course Description: This seminar introduces students to the interdisciplinary field of conflict analysis and resolution from both theoretical and applied/practical perspectives. We will examine the key concepts, definitions and theories of conflict causation, and consider a range of practical tools and approaches to conflict management. Attention will be paid to the distinguishing characteristics of social, political and economic conflicts, as well as to the challenges and opportunities presented by multi-level community organizing, grassroots conflict resolution and related strategies. Additional focal points include the role of culture, ethnicity, gender, intergenerational relations and religious affiliation on conflict dynamics and conflict resolution processes. Practical exercises will provide students with opportunities to analyze real life conflicts, and practice various methods for conflict resolution with an emphasis on collaborative problem solving, negotiation and mediation. Seminar-style discussions, presentations and practical exercises constitute the bulk of the course’s structure, supplemented with occasional videos and guest speakers.

The sociological study of peace and conflict uses sociological theory and methods to analyze peace, peace processes, peace building and models, peace policies, conflict and its causes, war as a social problem, media and violence, scope of conflict, group conflicts, collective violence and alternative constructive nonviolent forms of conflict transformation. Sociology of peace and conflict is aimed to foster the development and application of sociological theories and methods for the understanding and study of dynamics of collective conflict and its prevention, conduct, and resolution. More importantly, it deals with military institutions and conflict between collectivities such as countries, ethnic groups, political movements, and religious groups, roles of military organizations, other governmental organizations, non-governmental organizations, and social movements. In view of that, sociology of peace and conflict aims at addressing a variety of topics that intersect the notions of peace and conflict. It provides an overview of the socio-political, cultural and economic underpinnings of conflict as it happens to be a key phenomenon in the contemporary world and Ethiopia. Peace and conflict occurs in interpersonal,

The armed conflict in northern Mali has developed significantly  since it broke out in 2012. The overwhelming result of this study is that its respondents are in unanimous agreement that the root causes of the violent conflict in Mali are marginalization and discrimination. The conflict is nurtured by the pervasive stratification between almost all groups in the society. The cleavages run between geographic locations, genders, ethnic groups, generations and classes, and enables hierarchies between those that dominate and those that are dominated. Marginality serves as a place of resistance for many groups, also northern women since many of them have grievances that are linked to their limited access to public services and human rights. For these women, marginality is a site of resistance that motivates them to mobilise men to take up arms against an unwilling government. The Islamists have exploited the vacuum left behind by the absent government,
through their provision of services such as health care and employment. They have also used the stratification between social classes to gain the support of impoverished communities and offer some sort of social mobility to both poor women and men.

This book examines John Calvin’s sense of vocation.

1) It begins with an analysis of thinking on prophecy in early, medieval, and Reformation theology.

2) It finds Calvin within a non-mystical, non-apocalyptic prophetic tradition that focused on scriptural interpretation.

3) It argues Calvin believed his prophetic authority was the same as Isaiah and Jeremiah, and suggests that he may have held himself to be infallible in matters related to Christian doctrine.

4) It argues that starting from about 1555, Calvin began to conceive the idea of encouraging one of the French 'lesser magistrates' (the princes of the blood royal) to rise up in armed conflict against the sitting French king with the aim of taking the throne.

5) Thus, it argues that when that did happen in 1562 when Louis of Condé gathered troops in Orléans and declared their intentions to liberate King Charles IX from the evil councillors surrounding him, this had Calvin's fingerprints on it -- Calvin was to a significant degree responsible for this turn of events.

6) Calvin pursued this plan, I argue, as one of a number of approaches to winning France for the gospel. In this way, the volume explores Calvin's sense of vocation and the impact this had on his political thought.

The Syrian conflict is as a multi-layered struggle involving many actors and interests. Structural factors present within the country created tensions when the revolutionary wave of the Arab Spring invested the frustrations of many segments of the Syrian society. The brutal repression perpetuated by the regime sparked widespread violence, dissolving the delicate previous order.
In a troublesome area such as the Middle East, with regional and international actors sharing various interests, this instability created the conditions for external meddling, as external state and non-state actors have seen in Syria the ground for their proxy wars, ranging from sectarian rifts to strategic considerations.
The deadly stalemate created by these dynamics make the solution of the Syrian crisis very unlikely in the short run, with the population suffering the hardest consequences.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, beginning in 2014, is still active to date, thanks to pro-Russia rebels and their intention to join ukraine. The latest event that again escalated the risk in the region arose due to an seizure of Ukrainian vessels and military personnel. Also the violation of an agreement signed in 2003 sounded the alarms and the international community criticized the action. Russia continues to act in the face of its interests and not even the economic sanctions imposed by the United States of America and the European Union changed their minds. The search for Heartland dominance or lengthent its sphere of influence in this area of the world remains as important today as in sir Halford Mackinder's times.

Keywords: Subversion, Conflict, Power, Heartland

The Ukrainian parliamentary elections held on October 26, 2014 are, for many reasons, an important milestone in the crisis that has been going on for almost a year now. First, the elections ended a period of almost eight months, during which many have accused Ukrainian leaders of the illegitimate use of power, given that they came to power at the end of February as a result of an uprising, rather than having been elected via a constitutional process. Second, the election results fundamentally changed the Ukrainian legislation and the composition of the Ukrainian political elite, allowing representatives of several new political groups into the Supreme Council that have been all but unknown to the public even a few months ago. Third, the elections ended an extraordinary period during which the political leaders of the country could stay in power without having to implement far-reaching reforms. These changes now offer us the opportunity to review the main turning points of the Ukrainian crisis, framing various analytical approaches to foster a better understanding of the ongoing processes and map up the main challenges that lay ahead of the newly elected leaders following the elections.

Conflict analysis is a structured process of analysis to understand conflict. It focuses on the conflict profile (its history), the actors involved and their perspectives, the causes of conflict, and the dynamics of how these elements interact.

This Topic Guide looks at how conflict analysis is done – at the systematic approaches and tools for conflict analysis developed for policy and practice. It highlights common principles, lessons and challenges identified in the literature.

This paper is focused on the Niger Delta Region and Ogoniland in particular with respect to the nonviolent remonstration of the Movement of the Survival of Ogoni People (MOSOP) against environmental degradation from 1970 to 2005. The effects of oil exploration & production on Ogoni people are examined. Trail of reactions by the Ogoni people, Shell and the Nigerian government is also discussed. The main objective of this paper is to inquire deeper into the real causes of the environmental degradation in Ogoniland and re-awaken the clamor for Shell and the Nigerian state to clean up the oil spills in the Niger Delta Region and make Shell Petroleum Development Company in particular and other oil companies in general engage in best practices as it concerns oil exploitation and exploration.

Keywords: Nonviolent movement in Nigeria, Ogoni, Shell operations in Nigeria, MOSOP.

This paper analyses the structural challenges, root causes and dynamics of conflict, instability and resilience in Nigeria. The first half of the paper explores the overall socio-economic, socio-cultural, political and environmental factors that shape conflict, instability and resilience in Nigeria. The second half of the paper explores the specific regionalised conflicts in greater detail.

This literature review analyses the structural challenges, root causes and dynamics of conflict, (in)stability and resilience in Uganda, with a particular focus on their relation to recent refugee movements. The first section of the paper explores the national dynamics that shape conflict, (in)stability and resilience in Uganda. The second section analyses the refugee flows, policies, impacts, challenges and sources of resilience. The third and fourth sections focus on the conflict and (in)stability dynamics specific to the north-west/northern and south-west/western regions.

This research challenged the assumption that intergroup interaction does not exist among Sri Lankan diaspora, who are often presented as archetypes of conflict-driven divided diaspora. If further questions the effectiveness of such positive contact in creating catalysts for peace. The research utilized the snowball sampling technique to uncover Sri
Lankan diaspora participants residing in the United Kingdom who interacted with members of the ‘enemy’ (out-)group. The research used Network analysis to gain insights into whether these diaspora interact informally with diaspora who held similar and different ideas. Narrative analysis and Positioning theory assisted in understanding whether these diaspora interactions remained positive, resulting in a reduction in
prejudice and a questioning of the enemy image. The concept of ‘Turning Points’ also aided in this endeavor. The research illuminated the fact that diaspora from divided groups perceived only those close acquaintances from the out-group as friends. Despite the tenants of Contact Hypothesis, the data illustrated that these same diaspora retained intergroup bias and prejudices regarding the out-group. These research findings provide crucial insights into the understanding of the Sri Lankan conflict, diaspora studies, and the relevancy of Contact hypothesis in reducing prejudice among divided group. It further
speculates on the efficacy of contact in ensuring catalysts for building peace. In exploring the nature of intergroup interaction among members of divided groups, the research concluded that rather than replacing one with the other prejudice and acceptance existed in tandem.

This study examines the phenomenon of ‘terrorism’ and the transition of ‘terrorist’ groups to political parties through the lens of conflict resolution.  The aim of this research is to establish why Van Engeland and Rudolph argue that Hamas has successfully transitioned from ‘terrorist’ group to political party according to their framework, when the environment Hamas is operating within as of 2013 is hostile and constrained.  I hypothesized that a factor is missing from the framework to account for this misrepresentation of Hamas’ current position.  Having identified the missing variable, recommendations could be made for Hamas’ continued forward momentum.  In order to find the missing element, I undertook a comprehensive methodology that included reapplying the framework, using two comparative case studies, and supplementing the entirety with additional literature on the subject.  Three significant factors that are not emphasized in Van Engeland and Rudolph’s framework are drawn out and examined in greater detail to see if their addition might provide a different result.  However, this process produced the same conclusion as Van Engeland and Rudolph, mainly that Hamas is an example of a successful transition.  The disconnect I was trying to pinpoint stems from external factors -  relating to economic instability sustained by global politics.    Hamas has moved along the transition process according to Van Engeland and Rudolph’s framework, but their current position is stalled due to the dynamics of current global politics.  These results suggest that such transitions can be helped or hindered by external pressure from global powers.  Additionally, special attention needs to be paid to ripe points in protracted conflicts in order to encourage transition from terrorist group to political party.  Finally, this study concludes that if moves away from violence and towards politics are not recognized and affirmed, a group may regress back towards tactics that garner the desired attention.

Başörtüsü yasakları bir çatışma alanı olarak bugün Türkiye gündemindeki popüler yerini korumaktadır. Özellikle toplumda 28 Şubat "postmodern" darbesi olarak bilinen ve 1997’de başlayan süreç bu çatışmanın görüldüğü alan ve mekanları çoğaltmıştır. 28 Şubat sürecinde özellikle eğitim, istihdam ve siyaset alanlarında sistematik olarak uygulanan başörtüsü yasağı uzun yıllara yansıyan geçmiş tartışma ve uygulamaların sonucu olarak görülebilir. İslami bir sembol ve ibadet olarak başörtüsü kullanımının sorun haline gelmesi Cumhuriyet’in kuruluşu ile birlikte yönetime hakim olan asker-sivil bürokrasi ve yönetici elitin uygulamalarına dayanır. Bu nedenle halkının çoğunluğu Müslüman olan bir ülke olarak Türkiye’de başörtüsü sorununu anlamak için Türkiye siyasi tarihindeki gelişmelere bakmak gerekmektedir. Bu makale, başörtüsü yasakları sorununu konu alan bir çatışma çözümü analizidir.