Inflation Theory

En este artículo se demuestra que la ecuación de Cambridge de demanda por dinero proviene de una función de utilidad tipo Cobb-Douglas. En consecuencia, la valoración de las unidades monetarias marginales es decreciente para el cuantitativismo, con lo cual se da una base microeconómica sólida a la explicación del fenómeno inflacionario –en este paradigma- como uno de índole dineraria.

This article demonstrates that the Cambridge equation of demand for money comes from a Cobb-Douglas utility function. Consequently, the valuation of marginal monetary units is decrescent for the quantity theory, which gives a solid microeconomic basis to the explanation of the inflationary phenomenon -in this paradigm- as one of a monetary nature.

Inflation means a persistent change in the price level of goods and services in an economy. It is generally measured in the consumer price index (CPI) or retail price index (RPI). Inflation reduces the purchasing power of a country's currency, as we need more units of currency over time to buy the same goods and services. The current empirical paper entitled “relationship between inflation and stock market evidence from selected global stock markets” have been undertaken with an intention to investigate the relationship between inflation and stock returns of the chosen economies. In order to realize the stated objectives, the researchers have collected the monthly data 2000 to 2017 for selected indices. In the first phase, log returns were computed and it has been tested for the existence of unit root in the distribution. In the second phase, we ran Pearson correlation coefficient for the collected data to find out the association between the inflation and stock returns. Majorit...

This paper investigates the relationship between stock returns and inflation
in India during 1991:4 to 2009:3. Weekly, monthly and quarterly indexes
of BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty are used. Weekly, monthly and quarterly
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) are
used as measures of inflation. The analysis is also carried for the subperiod
2002:4-2009:3, and the pre-crisis and post-crisis analysis is conducted
through the analysis of the subperiod 2005:1-2009:4. Unit root tests,
Granger causality test and regressions are performed for examining the
nexus between the variables. Vector Autoregression (VAR) methodology
has been employed to investigate the causal link between stock returns and
inflation. Impulse Response Functions (IRF) check the response to
disturbance in the system. The results suggest that there is no significant
relation between stock returns and inflation in post-reform period in India.

Urmăresc în materialul de față, câteva chestiuni-limită din câmpul cercetării științifice, care în ultimele decenii au generat dezbateri aprinse, menționând poziții care sugerează că ele ar ascunde discontinuități de fond, ce fragmentează tabloul științific al lumii, descrierea micro- și macro-cosmosului, abordarea lumi vii și a omul. În legătură cu acestea, propun câteva înțelesuri provenite din reflecția teologiei ortodoxe, care aduc în discuție legătura dintre cunoașterea științifică și viața omului.

Inflation is defined as a persistent increase in general price level of goods and services. Even
though Ethiopia has experienced a low inflation until 2002/3, recently, double digit inflation has
become troublesome for policy makers as well as the society. Therefore, this study was carried
out to identify the major determinants of inflation in Ethiopia by employing the techniques of
Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for 32 years’ data starting from 1987/88 to
2018/19. The study included macroeconomic determinants and non-economic factor that alter
inflation level measured by consumer price index such as, real gross domestic product, nominal
exchange rate, broad money supply, external debt, foreign aid, tariff rate and dummy for
political stability. The results of bounds test confirmed that there is a long run relationship
between the explanatory variables and consumer price index in Ethiopia. The empirical result
implied evidence of a long-run positive and significant (p-value<0.05) effect of nominal
exchange rate, broad money supply, external debt and foreign aid with coefficients 1.130896,
1.980892, 1.641140 and 2.513185, respectively on inflation in Ethiopia whereas real gross
domestic product and dummy of political stability significantly (p-value<0.05) and negatively
affect price level with coefficients -5.371298 and -3.698385, respectively in the long run. Finally,
from the finding of the study in the short run, broad money supply and external debt has positive
and significant (p-value<0.05) effect on inflation in Ethiopia with coefficients 0.292621 and
0.1699, respectively. Real gross domestic product and dummy for political stability are also the
main significant (p-value<0.05) determinants of inflation with negative coefficients (I.e. -
0.793457 and -0.495005, respectively) in the short run. Given these findings, the monetary policy
should be planned to maintain price stability by controlling the growth of money supply and
devaluation of the domestic currency in the economy. Also combined efforts should be made by
policy makers to increase the supply of output so as to reduce the prices of goods and services
and there should be democratic political discussions among the political parties to reduce the
political conflicts and instabilities.

In this paper, the language of standard big bang cosmology, the problems of the big bang, and as a solution to these problems, the inflationary cosmology are introduced. This paper is a bachelor project for ASTR312: Modern Astrophysics II course at Middle East Technical University.

My 13 years old niece put me in a difficult position the other day when she asked me to write a speech for a competition at her school on the topic ‘inflation is taxation without legislation’. While I was surprised at the level of questions asked from children in their schools in Pakistan and still Pakistan is struggling to find a place in the future, I was troubled how to address the question. Being totally ignorant on the economics of inflation and having a very little understanding of its interaction (if any) with taxation, I took up the task. An hour of google search with different key words ended up with no help and I decided to deal with it barehanded. With all the over generalisation and simplification, here is what came out of it.

The present study examined the causes of inflation in developing countries especially in Rwanda.
It emphasized on analyzing the influences of money supply and USD/FRW exchange rates on
inflation in Rwanda. It is conducted on three hypotheses. The first two state that depreciation of
the Rwandan currency and the rhythmic increase of money supply lead to the general increase of
price and the cost of living. The third one states that inflation is a worldwide disaster which
affects every body, so the monetary decision-makers have to control it. The Literature review
described the background, measure and causes of inflation and different theories of inflation. The
methodology used was econometric approach based on the secondary data where the different
tests were conducted to know the influence of money supply and exchange rates on inflation in
Rwanda during 1995-2010. And from the drawn results of regression and computations, we
made interpretations and conclusions. The researcher finds that exchange rate USD/RFW do not
cause in prices in Rwanda. The money supply influences the inflation in Rwanda. The results
showed that inflation in more developing countries is controlled by government intervention in
the economy. Finally, we provide the

It might seem that the unification of physics within a single paradigm has been the primary goal in science for only the past few decades, but this would not be true.  Unification was the original goal of Einstein and a few other physicists from the 1920s to the 1960s, during a period of time when quantum theorists were ironing out their own unique problems. Their original notion of unification was based on relativity theory rather than the quantum. Unification in the guise of the quantum paradigm only emerged during the 1970s and has since overshadowed all other attempts to unify physics. Quantum theorists believe their work is more accurate, fundamental and even more practical than relativity even though there is little or no evidence to support that belief. For all intents and purposes, the two theories seem mutually incompatible, so the unification of physics has recently proceeded along the lines of an either/or strategy: Either the quantum theory is correct and relativity is wrong, or relativity is correct and the quantum theory wrong. In fact, quantum theorists have been very aggressively trying to replace the space-time curvature of general relativity with gravitons, quantum gravity, other mythical particles and equally speculative gimmicks for several decades and all of their attempts have been futile. In reality, both approaches are basically flawed because both theories are incomplete as they are now understood. Had either side of the controversy just simplified their worldview and sought commonality between the two instead of concentrating on false made-up differences, unification could have been accomplished long ago. The point is, literally, that the discrete quantum, continuous relativity, basic physical geometry and classical physics all share one common characteristic – a paradoxical duality between a dimensionless point and an extended length in any dimension – and if the problem of unification is approached from an attempt to understand how this problem relates to each paradigm all of physics could be unified within a single new theoretical model. Unfortunately, there has traditionally been no method by which a three-dimensional space can be generated from dimensionless points, raising the question – how can dimensionless point particles be extended to account for the three-dimensional space in which the physical interactions they describe occur? This very question is basic to both the quantum theory and relativity, but neither has attempted to answer it although Einstein and others’ attempts to develop classical unified field theories have come closest to the answer. The unification of physics is impossible until this question is answered, but once it is answered the unification follows naturally and easily.

The Greek government tried to change the negative public opinion by announcing a 7,5% increase in the minimum wage applied on May 1st. As usual, the neoliberal government policies are a sham. The data reveal that Greek labor has lost more than 30% of its real income since 2008 whereas the European Union average wage increased by 10%. Actually, Greek labor is receiving the same average real wage as in 1995. (The article was written before the official announcement of 9,5% inflation in March) (PARON 30/4/2022)

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The book presents a theory of necessity to adjust money supply to account for productivity if deflation is to be avoided. The monetary agent (central banker) is a market participant who is not profit oriented and can create money at will, and thus not be subject to rational investor constraints. The monetary agent's power is similar to or greater than investor power in the market. Businesses leverage low interest rates enforced by the monetary agent to increase their activity, and growth rates, increasing employment to compensate for the reduced labor necessary to create the former level of goods and services. This leveraged difference in returns is the equity premium. Since productivity is a "rate" of production, even a one time increase requires a corresponding permanent increase not in the money supply itself, but in the "rate of increase" of the money supply. Given the steady growth in productivity of the last 100 years, the world economy is now grossly under-stimulated and in danger of precipitous deflation.

Both academic models and arguments based on historical events are presented, along with analysis of the meaning of money, investor behavior, and practical techniques for obtaining the equity premium in one's portfolio.

In this work, we have developed an elegant algorithm to study the cosmological consequences from a huge class of quantum field theories (i.e. superstring theory, supergrav-ity, extra dimensional theory, modified gravity etc.), which are equivalently described by soft attractors in the effective field theory framework. In this description we have restricted our analysis for two scalar fields-dilaton and Higgsotic fields minimally coupled with Einstein gravity, which can be generalized for any arbitrary number of scalar field contents with generalized non-canonical and non-minimal interactions. We have explicitly used R 2 gravity, from which we have studied the attractor and non-attractor phase by exactly computing two point, three point and four point correlation functions from scalar fluctuations using In-In (Schwinger-Keldysh) and δN formalism. We have also presented theoretical bounds on the amplitude, tilt and running of the primordial power spectrum, various shapes (equilateral, squeezed, folded kite or counter collinear) of the amplitude as obtained from three and four point scalar functions, which are consistent with observed data. Also the results from two point tensor fluctuations and field excursion formula are explicitly presented for attractor and non-attractor phase. Further, reheating constraints, scale dependent behaviour of the couplings and the dynamical solution for the dilaton and Higgsotic fields are also presented. New sets of consistency relations between two, three and four point observables are also presented, which shows significant deviation from canonical slow roll models. Additionally, three possible theoretical proposals have presented to overcome the tachyonic instability at the time of late time acceleration. Finally, we have also provided the bulk interpretation from the three and four point scalar correlation functions for completeness.

Long-run and short-run inflation expectations indicate the quality of anchoring and central bank credibility for its inflations target and expected pass-through of inflationary shocks. In this paper we provide a comprehensive literature review and find that changes and credibility of policy targets are passed through long-run and short-run expectations while shocks affect mainly short-run expectations and influence long-run expectations if they are sequential and not-accommodated. We exemplify our hypothesizes by empirical models and find that short-term expectations compared to the medium-term have a weaker link to long-term expectations.

We test whether the country risk variable is a significant risk factor in several CAPM based models of expected equity returns in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Russia, Turkey and Venezuela. We also test the usual assumption that country risk can be added with a coefficient value of one. Only in Brazil and Mexico the risk premium associated with the country risk factor is significant. Adding country risk with a coefficient value of one is not generally valid and moreover, in Brazil and Mexico the risk premium for country risk takes a negative value. This shows that international investors may look for exposure to country risk.

The continuous creation of matter in our current universe, as proposed by the steady state cosmological theory (BONDI; GOLD; HOYLE, 1948), was not very well accepted. Among the unfavorable arguments is the concept that this kind of theory is very hard to be tested observationally and experimentally. This paper demonstrates that it is possible to test the growth of bodies, produced by matter creation based on using a simple method. The final conclusion emphasizes the concept of the current universe in growth with the continuous creation of matter. It also establishes a careful but simple methodology to measure the "growth" rate based on gravimetry, and therefore without having to use the Doppler effect.

The paper entertains the hypothesis that the decline of Latin American-based inertial inflation theory was largely due to the instability in its theoretical communication. Starting in the 1950s, various traditions in economic thought purported to explain the concept of “inflation inertia”. Not only quite distinct meanings were ascribed to the term “inertia”, but also different narratives implied rather conflicting policy implications. The paper outlines the critical junctures at which such conflicts in theoretical parlance were smoothed out by the common goal of curbing the self-sustaining thrust of inflation in the region. Contributions by Celso Furtado, M.H. Simonsen, Julio Olivera and James Tobin are evaluated as points of departure from the typically discursive Latin-American structuralist mode of exposition. These authors strived to fit the core novelties of the inertial inflation theory into either mathematical formulations or conceptual frameworks more in tandem with then contemporaneous developments in macroeconomic theory. They did so whilst maintaining the key features of the CEPAL approach, namely, the presence of distributional conflicts and local institutional details such as wage and price indexation and balance of payments constraints. Paradoxically, by bridging the communication gap with the North-American developments, these authors helped to unveil the shortcomings of the Latin-American tradition in two crucial dimensions. First, the prominent policy-oriented nature of such debates led to association of this emerging approach to the sequence of failed heterodox stabilization plans in the 1980s. The second aspect refers to the debunking of the concept of inertia from its central position in the debates in the region in the late 1980s. Outright defense of the theory gave way to a massive exodus of several of its claimants towards the ongoing new neoclassical synthesis. The inertial inflation theory was thus gradually stripped of its previous substance and form, as it seemed not to fit the micro-foundations revolution that gained momentum in the 1980s.

Introduction-The BIGMAC Index was designed by The Economist in 1986 as a happy manual for whether monetary standards are at their "right" level. It depends on the hypothesis of acquiring power equality (PPP), the thought that over the long haul trade rates should move towards the rate that would even out the costs of an indistinguishable container of merchandise and enterprises (for this situation, a burger) in any two nations. The BicMac list has been distributed every year by The Economist since 1986 and is evaluated as a streamlined pointer of a nation's individual obtaining power. The same number of nations have various monetary forms, the institutionalized BIGMAC costs are determined by changing over the normal national BIGMAC costs with the most recent swapping scale to U.S. dollars. The Big Mac, as a top-selling McDonald's burger, is utilized for examination since it is accessible in pretty much every nation and fabricated in an institutionalized size, piece and quality. McDonald's is an overall working drive-through joint chain with central command in Oak Brook, Illinois. Its worldwide income added up to about 21.03 billion U.S. dollars in 2018. Most McDonald eateries are spread over the United States. The BIGMAC Index is determined by partitioning the cost of a BIGMAC in one nation by the cost of a BIGMAC in another nation in their separate nearby monetary forms to land at a conversion scale. This conversion scale is then contrasted with the official swapping scale between the two monetary forms to decide whether either money is underestimated or exaggerated by the PPP hypothesis.

El ministro en su intervención en un seminario económico en la capital chilena compitió con la osadía de Sturzenegger en Shanghái. Proyectó la Inflación de 2016 en 25%, 2017 en 12 % y 5% para 2018.
En el exterior los funcionarios son mas osados que acá…. ¿Moda? ¿Contagio de optimismo?.  ¿Quién lo sabe?

Esta nota pretende ser una demostración de las falacias de las declaraciones verborrágicas, alejadas de la realidad económica argentina 2016 que me hace recordar al “Segismundo “de Calderón en 1651.

Science does not " wander " , it is not like the proverbial drunken sailor who let go of the light pole that is holding him up and tries to walk away, and it certainly does not wander toward any 'specific' goal. Science does not 'specifically' know what hand nature will deal it in the future explorations. The general goal, if it can be called that, is to describe nature as truthfully as possible. Science goes where nature and the universe lead and explains what nature and the universe present to science. Science is a straightforward logical process by which human thought evolves and sometimes revolutionizes how we view our world. In general, the only thing that could be construed as a goal in science is a complete understanding of how nature works and presents itself to us. In other words, science answers to nature, nature does not answer to science and especially not to any specific goal in the minds of scientists or others. Given this, once the obtuse nature of the given question is determined and the given question is translated into common English, the answer is just as easy as the question is ridiculous. The answer is simply that mathematical laws cannot give rise to aims and intentions which are normally considered aspects of consciousness. However, this raises the new question of why the given question is so obtuse in nature and needs to be translated to an answerable question, while answering this new question is significantly telling.

Confidence in combining inflation-targeting-cum-flexible-exchange-rate regimes with isolated microprudential regulation as a means to guarantee both macroeconomic and financial stability has been shattered by the scale and synchronization of asset price booms and busts that preceded the current global financial crisis. This paper has a two-fold purpose. On the one hand, it explores the implications and challenges of acknowledging the need for coordination between monetary policies and macroprudential regulation. On the other, it points out specific challenges currently faced by central bankers in emerging economies, as they cope with policy and regulatory coordination in a context of debt overhang and unconventional monetary policies in advanced economies

Abstract: Permanent inflation is a reality confined to the post-World War II period. In this article it will be argued that Marx's theory is indispensable for the accounting of inflation characteristic of contemporary economies. Market phenomena are incapable of changing the magnitude of value predetermined in the sphere of production, but they can cause variations in market prices. Marxist theory of inflation explains it as a monetary phenomenon which takes place in the sphere of circulation and that it is marked by a gap between market prices and the underlying value relations. There are three fundamental Marxist theories that explain this gap substantiated in the general rise in prices: i) the monopoly capital theory; ii) th e excess supply of money as medium of circulation theory; ii) the distributive conflict theory.

El objetivo de este trabajo es examinar el vínculo entre la teoría monetaria de Marx y su explicación del valor, la producción y la circulación. Para ello expone los elementos teóricos básicos que permiten abordar una crítica de la teoría cuantitativa, la concepción chartalista de la génesis del dinero y la teoría poskeynesiana del dinero endógeno. Luego analiza desde una perspectiva marxista la controvertida relación entre la monetización de deuda pública y el aumento del nivel general de precios.

A brief article on a proposal to "clean" the current monetary system by injecting new base money directly into the economy and rebalancing the issuance of debt by higher capital requirements. The effect of this would be to redirect new money towards the productive base and away from the speculative economy.

A partir de una comprensión teórica de la relación compleja entre dinero e inflación que considera tanto la explicación ortodoxa como la heterodoxa, se exponen modelos autorregresivos para la Argentina del último cuarto de siglo como chequeo de dicho marco teórico. En ellos se verifica el impacto positivo sobre la inflación del exceso de emisión monetaria respecto del producto o el financiamiento al Tesoro de parte del banco central, así como, del otro lado, el efecto amortiguador que tiene el crédito al sector privado o un aumento de los depósitos que supera al del crédito. Mediante pruebas de Granger se verifica el impacto acotado a un semestre que tienen los precios sobre la emisión monetaria (el argumento heterodoxo), mientras que el efecto contrario persiste por varios años.

Since the 1980s and 1990s, Morocco has made great efforts to consolidate its monetary policy strategy. Going through the strategy of targeted monetary aggregates until the arrival of BAM's autonomous status in 2006. Currently, BAM uses a multi-criteria monetary strategy as a diagnostic framework for inflation risk. For Morocco to use an inflation targeting strategy, it must meet certain operational and institutional conditions. This article will provide a scientific basis for different approaches that can identify the problems of BAM's strategy as a whole and will make a contribution that can be used for applied research purposes.

Equity investment is assumed to be a good hedge against inflation since long time. This paper examines short run causal relationship between inflation and stock return in emerging BRICS markets. The study covers a comprehensive period of 13 years from the year 2000 to 2013 using quarterly data. The regression results reveal a significant positive relationship between changes in inflation and stock returns only in case of Brazil. But, Granger causality results reveal unidirectional causality from stock return to changes in inflation in Russia, India and South Africa and bidirectional causality in China. Hence, there seem to be a cause and effect relationship between stock returns and inflation in emerging markets. The results are of pertinent importance in today‟s context where emerging markets are facing the problems of rising inflation and volatile stock returns. The policy regulators need to understand these dynamics between inflation and stock returns to ensure better regulation of the markets. For investors  particularly large and institutional investors the study findings support trading based on inflation forecasts. efficiency of Indian stock market.

In the framework of a cosmological model of the Universe filled with a nonrelativistic particle soup, we easily reproduce inflation due to the quantum potential. The lightest particles in the soup serve as a driving force of this simple, natural and promising mechanism. It is explicitly demonstrated that the appropriate choice of their mass and fraction leads to reasonable numbers of e-folds. Thus, the direct introduction of the quantum potential into cosmology of the earliest Universe gives ample opportunities of successful reconsideration of the modern inflationary theory.

In this work, we have studied the possibility of setting up Bell's inequality violating experiment in the context of cosmology, based on the basic principles of quantum mechanics. First we start with the physical motivation of implementing the Bell's inequality violation in the context of cosmology. Then to set up the cosmological Bell violating test experiment we introduce a model independent theoretical framework using which we have studied the creation of new massive particles by implementing the WKB approximation method for the scalar fluctuations in presence of additional time dependent mass contribution in the cosmological perturbation theory. Here for completeness we compute total number density and energy density of the newly created particles in terms of Bogoliubov coefficients using WKB approximation method. Next using the background scalar fluctuation in presence of new time dependent mass contribution, we explicitly compute the expression for the one point and two point correlation functions. Furthermore, using the results for one point function we introduce a new theoretical cosmological parameter which can be expressed in terms of the other known inflationary observables and can also be treated as a future theoretical probe to break the degeneracy amongst various models of inflation. Additionally, we also fix the scale of inflation in a model independent way without any prior knowledge of primordial gravitational waves. Also using the input from newly introduced cosmological parameter, we finally give a theoretical estimate for the tensor-to-scalar ratio in a model independent way. Next, we also comment on the technicalities of measurements from isospin breaking interactions and the future prospects of newly introduced massive particles in cosmological Bell violating test experiment. Further, we cite a precise example of this set up applicable in the context of string theory motivated axion monodromy model. Then we comment on the explicit role of decoherence effect and high spin on cosmological Bell violating test experiment. In fine, we provide a theoretical bound on the heavy particle mass parameter for scalar fields, graviton and other high spin fields from our proposed setup.