The trend of population decreasing since the beginning of the 21st century in some European countries is considered in this article. The study is aimed at presenting the empirical evolution of negative population growth in order to make a... more
The trend of population decreasing since the beginning of the 21st century in some European countries is considered in this article. The study is aimed at presenting the empirical evolution of negative population growth in order to make a raw assessment of the dimensions and scale of this phenomenon as well as of its components and their trends over the past decade. The results of an analysis of the total rate of population increase dynamics among the EU countries over the period 2001–2012 are presented in this article. Three indicators were used in the analysis: total rate of population growth, crude rate of natural increase and crude rate of net migration. A 4-group classification of the countries was applied to the indicators analysed focussing on the negative and zero population growth. Thus, a general estimate of the evolution of the groups of countries with decreasing or stagnating population over the period considered was made. Data of Eurostat datasets and of the UN Populati...
Depopulation and population ageing are interlinked topics of great concern in many countries. To counteract the negative effects of these phenomena, increased fertility and/or increased immigration are often proposed as demographic... more
Depopulation and population ageing are interlinked topics of great concern in many countries. To counteract the negative effects of these phenomena, increased fertility and/or increased immigration are often proposed as demographic solutions. However, substantial long-term fertility increases have proved difficult to achieve, and whereas increased immigration usually reduces ageing in the shortterm, it may be politically controversial and have limited effects in the long term, because immigrants also age. However, in this discourse and at the national level, changed emigration is rarely mentioned.
Few producers of official population projections provide regular evaluations of past projection inaccuracies. This paper assesses deviations between the projected and registered total population for Norway (1996–2018), as well as... more
Few producers of official population projections provide regular evaluations of past projection inaccuracies. This paper assesses deviations between the projected and registered total population for Norway (1996–2018), as well as deviations in the age structure, total fertility rate and number of births, period life expectancy at birth and number of deaths, and net international migration. Projected life expectancy was consistently lower than the real development. Few systematic deviations were observed for fertility up to 2009, but thereafter fertility has been consistently overprojected. However, the deviations between projected and realised trends in births and deaths have been relatively small as compared to those for net international migration. The projections produced between 1996–2005 underestimated long-term population growth due primarily to the unforeseen increase in immigration following EU expansion in 2004. More recent projections contain no consistent under- or overpr...
Depopulation and population ageing are interlinked topics of great concern in many countries. To counteract the negative effects of these phenomena, increased fertility and/or increased immigration are often proposed as demographic... more
Depopulation and population ageing are interlinked topics of great concern in many countries. To counteract the negative effects of these phenomena, increased fertility and/or increased immigration are often proposed as demographic solutions. However, substantial long-term fertility increases have proved difficult to achieve, and whereas increased immigration usually reduces ageing in the shortterm, it may be politically controversial and have limited effects in the long term, because immigrants also age. However, in this discourse and at the national level, changed emigration is rarely mentioned.
The ageing process ongoing in the Member States of the European Union (EU) brings new challenges to their societies. To assess the implications of the demographic changes (e.g., for the assessment of the long-term sustainability of the... more
The ageing process ongoing in the Member States of the European Union (EU) brings new challenges to their societies. To assess the implications of the demographic changes (e.g., for the assessment of the long-term sustainability of the public finances), population projections are regularly produced by the Statistical Office of the European Communities (EUROSTAT). The last round was based on the
Teniendo en cuenta los fuertes flujos migratorios que caracterizan los países europeos, estudiar los perfiles sociodemográficos de las migraciones desde una perspectiva de género se vuelve crucial para determinar las relaciones existentes... more
Teniendo en cuenta los fuertes flujos migratorios que caracterizan los países europeos, estudiar los perfiles sociodemográficos de las migraciones desde una perspectiva de género se vuelve crucial para determinar las relaciones existentes con respecto a sus pares masculinos de forma longitudinal y transversal. El presente estudio realiza un análisis pormenorizado y descriptivo de los indicadores de género disponibles en Eurostat con el objetivo de estudiar los datos desagregados existentes sobre demografía y migración para revelar las utilidades y limitaciones que ofrece. Tras el análisis desarrollado se constata Eurostat como una de las bases de datos más completa a nivel europeo que cuenta con indicadores que permiten crear perfiles genéricos sobre mujeres migrantes. Sin embargo, se hace visible la necesidad de generar estadísticas más específicas sobre la diversidad en el perfil de las mujeres migrantes, para no recurrir a los datos ofrecidos por otras fuentes estadísticas a nive...
Teniendo en cuenta los fuertes flujos migratorios que caracterizan los países europeos, estudiar los perfiles sociode-mográficos de las migraciones desde una perspectiva de género se vuelve crucial para determinar las relaciones... more
Teniendo en cuenta los fuertes flujos migratorios que caracterizan los países europeos, estudiar los perfiles sociode-mográficos de las migraciones desde una perspectiva de género se vuelve crucial para determinar las relaciones existentes con respec-to a sus pares masculinos de forma longitudinal y transversal. El presente estudio realiza un análisis pormenorizado y descriptivo de los indicadores de género disponibles en Eurostat con el objetivo de estudiar los datos desagregados existentes sobre demografía y migración para revelar las utilidades y limitaciones que ofrece. Tras el análisis desarrollado se constata Eurostat como una de las bases de datos más completa a nivel europeo que cuenta con indicadores que permiten crear perfiles genéricos sobre mujeres migrantes. Sin embargo, se hace visible la necesidad de generar estadísticas más específicas sobre la diversidad en el perfil de las mujeres migrantes, para no recurrir a los datos ofrecidos por otras fuentes estadísticas a nivel nacional o internacional.
continue to grow, but the uncertainty associated with such forecasts becomes greater the farther ahead we look (Figure 1). In the main alternative (MMMM, see box), the population of Norway will pass the 6 million mark around 2030, and... more
continue to grow, but the uncertainty associated with such forecasts becomes greater the farther ahead we look (Figure 1). In the main alternative (MMMM, see box), the population of Norway will pass the 6 million mark around 2030, and will reach 7 million by 2060. This alternative assumes a medium development in fertility, life expectancy and immigration. The determining factors behind the population growth in the main alternative are a relatively high net migration and an excess of births.
This papers refers to demographic processes in the period from the 19th century through to the present and tries to define what they will look like in the future. Demographic trends i.a. relating to fertility, mortality, migrations, the... more
This papers refers to demographic processes in the period from the 19th century through to the present and tries to define what they will look like in the future. Demographic trends i.a. relating to fertility, mortality, migrations, the process of family-union-household formation and dissolution, and the process of population ageing, are described by the concepts of demographic transformations: first, second and third. The transformation of demographic trends has coexisted and will coexist with globalization processes, though the scope of the mutual influence changes over time. Despite the fact that it takes place in various geographical regions, the transformation of demographic trends is characterised by high cultural diversity and socio-economic development.
continue to grow, but the uncertainty associated with such forecasts becomes greater the farther ahead we look (Figure 1). In the main alternative (MMMM, see box), the population of Norway will pass the 6 million mark around 2030, and... more
continue to grow, but the uncertainty associated with such forecasts becomes greater the farther ahead we look (Figure 1). In the main alternative (MMMM, see box), the population of Norway will pass the 6 million mark around 2030, and will reach 7 million by 2060. This alternative assumes a medium development in fertility, life expectancy and immigration. The determining factors behind the population growth in the main alternative are a relatively high net migration and an excess of births.
Mortality forecasts for the Irish population are published following each census by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) as part of their labour force and population projections. The projections rely on identifying and extrapolating past... more
Mortality forecasts for the Irish population are published following each census by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) as part of their labour force and population projections. The projections rely on identifying and extrapolating past trends in mortality improvements. However, since the calendar year 2011, there has been a significant slow-down in mortality improvements and, in fact, mortality rates observed at ages above 90 years increased in Ireland a reversal of the long-term trend decline that must cause much unease to public health policy-makers. The recent change in trend poses challenges when forecasting mortality rates. This paper sets out the approach eventually adopted by the CSO in the recent mortality projections, and contrasts it with other extrapolative methods including the increasingly popular stochastic and coherent methods. Comparing the outputs with these models gives a measure of the uncertainty of the future mortality forecasts for Ireland. The mortality proje...
he present paper wants to convey the message that, for maintaining good health and to avoid water- borne diseases (which are the cruelest killer of thousands of people every year) it is necessary to establish the rights to access safe... more
he present paper wants to convey the message that, for maintaining good health and to avoid water- borne diseases (which are the cruelest killer of thousands of people every year) it is necessary to establish the rights to access safe water resource for every human being. Keeping in mind, the grave water-crisis of the present day world to meet the requirement of modern civilization, rainwater harvesting can be the only solution. Government of India shows a crude calculation as a design for rainwater storage tank. This crude design is not practical at all and also not economically feasible. So the present paper tries to suggest a feasible design for
Introduction Demographic dynamics are the joint result of three different processes: mortality, fertility and migration. Demographic analysis tends to focus on the first two processes that define natural growth, and see migration and its... more
Introduction Demographic dynamics are the joint result of three different processes: mortality, fertility and migration. Demographic analysis tends to focus on the first two processes that define natural growth, and see migration and its rather unstable patterns as a nuisance. We would argue, however, that, particularly for small units of analysis like the Spanish provinces, migration is the main driver of population dynamics, and that it is not possible to understand the long-term process of urbanization and suburbanization while ignoring population movements. Spain has a total population in 2012 of 47 million, made up of 52 NUTS-3 regions: the 50 provinces and the 2 autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla. They range in population from 80000 to the 5.5 and 6.4 million of Barcelona and Madrid. Median population in 2012 is 650000 compared to 33000 in the 1900 census. An advantage of the Spanish territorial structure is that it has kept the same structure of provinces throughout all t...
continue to grow, but the uncertainty associated with such forecasts becomes greater the farther ahead we look (Figure 1). In the main alternative (MMMM, see box), the population of Norway will pass the 6 million mark around 2030, and... more
continue to grow, but the uncertainty associated with such forecasts becomes greater the farther ahead we look (Figure 1). In the main alternative (MMMM, see box), the population of Norway will pass the 6 million mark around 2030, and will reach 7 million by 2060. This alternative assumes a medium development in fertility, life expectancy and immigration. The determining factors behind the population growth in the main alternative are a relatively high net migration and an excess of births.
This paper aims at assessing the robustness of demographic projections to different assumptions on mortality, fertility and migration. It builds on a small-scale simulation model for 23 OECD countries, which reproduces closely national... more
This paper aims at assessing the robustness of demographic projections to different assumptions on mortality, fertility and migration. It builds on a small-scale simulation model for 23 OECD countries, which reproduces closely national projections under similar demographic assumptions. Up to 2020, projections are relatively robust to alternative hypothesis. However, uncertainty about future longevity gains and fertility rates account for a large range of results for dependency ratios by 2050. Eventually, a long lasting surge in fertility may not be enough to fully offset the impact on dependency ratio of increases in longevity in line with past trends (i.e., around two years every decade).Sensibilité des projections démographiques dans les pays de l'OCDE : Une évaluationCe document évalue la sensibilité des projections démographiques à différentes hypothèses de mortalité, de natalité et d’immigration. Un modèle simplifié de simulation démographique est construit pour 23 pays de...
Esta nueva versión del Atlas de Mortalidad incluye datos del período 2002-2006 para permitir su comparabilidad. Se incluyen además datos del análisis de tendencias de mortalidad continuando lo realizado por Dora Loria y Graciela Abriata... more
Esta nueva versión del Atlas de Mortalidad incluye datos del período 2002-2006 para permitir su comparabilidad. Se incluyen además datos del análisis de tendencias de mortalidad continuando lo realizado por Dora Loria y Graciela Abriata sobre ese tema en el período 1980 a 2001. Se ha agregado además el análisis a nivel no sólo provincial sino departamental para poder valorar la mortalidad en áreas geográficas más acotadas. Como siempre, la posibilidad de ofrecer estos datos sería imposible sin el concurso eficiente, que se agradece, de la Dirección de Estadísticas e Información de Salud (DEIS), de este ministerio. El conocimiento de las frecuencias de los distintos tipos tumorales (inferido por las tasas de mortalidad) en grupos poblacionales de provincias o departamentos permitirán dirigir y focalizar mejor los esfuerzos de los organismos gubernamentales relacionados con la salud en lo tendiente a prevención, diagnóstico temprano y tratamiento del cáncer. La consulta de los datos d...
Esta nueva versión del Atlas de Mortalidad incluye datos del período 2002-2006 para permitir su comparabilidad. Se incluyen además datos del análisis de tendencias de mortalidad continuando lo realizado por Dora Loria y Graciela Abriata... more
Esta nueva versión del Atlas de Mortalidad incluye datos del período 2002-2006 para permitir su comparabilidad. Se incluyen además datos del análisis de tendencias de mortalidad continuando lo realizado por Dora Loria y Graciela Abriata sobre ese tema en el período 1980 a 2001. Se ha agregado además el análisis a nivel no sólo provincial sino departamental para poder valorar la mortalidad en áreas geográficas más acotadas. Como siempre, la posibilidad de ofrecer estos datos sería imposible sin el concurso eficiente, que se agradece, de la Dirección de Estadísticas e Información de Salud (DEIS), de este ministerio. El conocimiento de las frecuencias de los distintos tipos tumorales (inferido por las tasas de mortalidad) en grupos poblacionales de provincias o departamentos permitirán dirigir y focalizar mejor los esfuerzos de los organismos gubernamentales relacionados con la salud en lo tendiente a prevención, diagnóstico temprano y tratamiento del cáncer. La consulta de los datos d...
Una variable latente es una característica inobservable, funcionalmente determinada a partir de un conjunto de indicadores. Este tipo de variable se asocia comúnmente con fenómenos complejos, multifactoriales, en la investigación política... more
Una variable latente es una característica inobservable, funcionalmente determinada a partir de un conjunto de indicadores. Este tipo de variable se asocia comúnmente con fenómenos complejos, multifactoriales, en la investigación política y socioeconómica. Un caso importante de esta variedad son las variables latentes no estructuradas, que se utilizan para comparar, ordenar y cuantificar la magnitud de un fenómeno. Una variable latente no estructurada se calcula a partir de indicadores subjetivos. Son agregados de fuentes de información que proporcionan conclusiones independientes sobre el fenómeno. En este trabajo se argumenta que las variables latentes no estructuradas deben considerarse juicios colectivos. Una implicación de ello es que los supuestos de medición y comparabilidad cardinal son inadmisibles para algunas de esas variables, y por tanto su construcción debe basarse solo en supuestos de medición y comparación ordinal.
Esta nueva versión del Atlas de Mortalidad incluye datos del período 2002-2006 para permitir su comparabilidad. Se incluyen además datos del análisis de tendencias de mortalidad continuando lo realizado por Dora Loria y Graciela Abriata... more
Esta nueva versión del Atlas de Mortalidad incluye datos del período 2002-2006 para permitir su comparabilidad. Se incluyen además datos del análisis de tendencias de mortalidad continuando lo realizado por Dora Loria y Graciela Abriata sobre ese tema en el período 1980 a 2001. Se ha agregado además el análisis a nivel no sólo provincial sino departamental para poder valorar la mortalidad en áreas geográficas más acotadas. Como siempre, la posibilidad de ofrecer estos datos sería imposible sin el concurso eficiente, que se agradece, de la Dirección de Estadísticas e Información de Salud (DEIS), de este ministerio. El conocimiento de las frecuencias de los distintos tipos tumorales (inferido por las tasas de mortalidad) en grupos poblacionales de provincias o departamentos permitirán dirigir y focalizar mejor los esfuerzos de los organismos gubernamentales relacionados con la salud en lo tendiente a prevención, diagnóstico temprano y tratamiento del cáncer. La consulta de los datos d...
This paper will discuss how CSPro (Census and Survey Processing System) and Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) coped with data processing system in a complex large scale survey. A recent large scale surveys used the CSPro... more
This paper will discuss how CSPro (Census and Survey Processing System) and Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) coped with data processing system in a complex large scale survey. A recent large scale surveys used the CSPro package and SPSS for data entry fact sheet and tabulation generation for the survey. The paper will discuss the outcomes of using CSPro and data processing system methods in a large scale survey. It is suggested that the use of CSPro and SPSS has achieved a better data quality than other data processing packages would have. The use of CSPro has a number of distinguished advantages, such as improvements in data quality and turnaround times. It will critically review how the quantitative method worked in this specific situation before placing the discussion in its wider data processing system methods and research environment in Nigeria.
Keywords: Census Survey Processing (CSpro), SPSS, Data Quality, large surveys.
В 2010 г., после двадцати лет правления, Муртаза Рахимов покинул пост президента Республики Башкортостан и ему на смену пришел Рустэм Хамитов. Смена политического руководства привела к волне ротаций элит как на региональном, так и на... more
В 2010 г., после двадцати лет правления, Муртаза Рахимов покинул пост президента Республики Башкортостан и ему на смену пришел Рустэм Хамитов. Смена политического руководства привела к волне ротаций элит как на региональном, так и на муниципальном уровне власти. В настоящей статье автор с помощью статистического анализа базы данных биографий локальной элиты Башкортостана исследует вопрос о том, насколько корпус глав муниципалитетов изменился после смены главы региона. Результаты исследования позволяют зафиксировать изменения ряда параметров в ротации локальных элит. Вместе с тем эти изменения не привели к существенным трансформациям социально-демографических характеристик новых руководителей муниципалитетов.
The Trend of Period Fertility in Greece and Its Changes During the Current Economic Recession Population Review Volume 56, Number 2, 2017 Type: Article pp. 30-48 Abstract Most research on the relationship between economic conditions and... more
The Trend of Period Fertility in Greece and Its Changes During the Current Economic Recession Population Review Volume 56, Number 2, 2017 Type: Article pp. 30-48 Abstract Most research on the relationship between economic conditions and fertility has shown that fertility has a procyclical relationship with economic growth. We examine this relationship by investigating the implications of the current economic crisis on fertility in Greece. Given the brief time period since the start of the economic crisis in Greece (a potential methodological limitation), we examine the evolution of fertility from 1960 to 2015, using empirical data provided by the Hellenic Statistical Authority and paying special attention to changes during the crisis years. Using these data, age-specific fertility rates by order of birth, total annual fertility rate, and mean age of mothers at childbearing differentiated by birth order are calculated. Our analysis shows that in the 2000s TFR increased as a result of the recuperation of births that were postponed during the late 1980s and the 1990s, and then TFR decreased, especially for first and second order TFR. We attribute the recent fall of TFR to the simultaneous fall of fertility rates of women younger than 30 years. It appears, therefore, that the crisis interrupted the recuperation of births that began in the early 2000s and halted fertility increases among younger ages. Recent changes in fertility are indicative of an accelerated decline of the complete fertility of women born after 1980, mainly because the recession was initiated during a time when the mean age of childbearing was very high (30 years for the first child). These facts do not allow for optimism concerning the reversal of fertility rates of younger generations who are probably going to spend a significant part of their reproductive life under crisis conditions. Keywords Economic recession, fertility, Greece
The most precious material in the world today is fresh (drinking) water. The way civilization has progressed, nature and water are most tormented and ignored. This stage has not reached in one day, or one century. Human folly has been... more
The most precious material in the world today is fresh (drinking) water. The way civilization has progressed, nature and water are most tormented and ignored. This stage has not reached in one day, or one century. Human folly has been responsible for the future survival of the animal kingdom more particularly water. A sustainable engineering model is developed here to implement rain water harvesting in efficient manner with very low cost.
The stochastic method has recently received much attention from researchers and seems to be a useful and efficient tool for implementing multiregional forecasting at a local level. In the paper the results are presented of a project... more
The stochastic method has recently received much attention from researchers and seems to be a useful and efficient tool for implementing multiregional forecasting at a local level. In the paper the results are presented of a project financed by the Province of Rome to make a multiple stochastic population forecast of the Rome Metropolitan Area using the so-called Bertino-Sonnino method, based on micro-simulations of birth-death-emigration-immigration point event processes. This forecast is based on a range of assumptions referring to the future demographic dynamics over the period 2009-24 and forming three variants. The outcome of the stochastic method is compared with de-terministic multiregional forecasting to verify the efficiency of both methodologies. This two-step strategy allows control to be maintained over the assumed future demographic variants, at the same time linking in a probability level.
Грушецкий Б. П. Библиометрический анализ внешнеполитических приоритетов Болгарии (по материалам журнала «Международни отношения», 2001-2012 гг.) [Текст] / Б. П. Грушецкий // Ученые записки Таврического национального университета имени... more
Грушецкий Б. П. Библиометрический анализ внешнеполитических приоритетов Болгарии (по материалам журнала «Международни отношения», 2001-2012 гг.) [Текст] / Б. П. Грушецкий // Ученые записки Таврического национального университета имени В.И. Вернадского. – Серия: Философия. Культурология. Политология. Социология. – 2013. – Т. 26 (65), № 4. – С. 292-300.
En este trabajo, se presenta la modelación matemática que hay entre la altura del nivel de un tanque y el tiempo que toma en su vaciado. Para su objetivo se tendrán en cuenta 3 modelos con soporte en Mínimos Cuadrados, usando ecuaciones... more
En este trabajo, se presenta la modelación matemática que hay entre la altura del nivel de un tanque y el tiempo que toma en su vaciado. Para su objetivo se tendrán en cuenta 3 modelos con soporte en Mínimos Cuadrados, usando ecuaciones diferenciales ordinarias que son resueltas por separación de variables. Al final se realiza el cálculo del coeficiente de determinación.
