War Games

• an award-winning Master’s course taught at the Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University
• we aim to provide students with direct experience with international crisis bargaining, by participating in a simulation of a real-life crisis event
• the main part of the course takes place on the weekend of March 22-24, 2019 at a location outside of Prague

Creation of the "sub-trigger" concept in correlation with the cluster munition
Sub-trigger7 A dangerous leak from Netanyahu’s office
Sub-trigger6 What is the US going to do now?
Sub-trigger5 accelerated version of driving Palestinians from their homes
Sub-trigger4 Ireland, Spain and Norway to recognise Palestinian state
"Sub-trigger3" Benjamin Netanyahu at a cross-road
While waiting "Sub-trigger2" which will be Iran's response, why does Iran not allow itself to be drawn into a frontal challenge with Israel? 02/04/2024
Sub-trigger1  01/04/2024
Israeli Air Strike Reportedly 'Flattens' Iranian Consulate In Damascus, Kills Top Quds Commander
The following scenario goes beyond a simple hypothesis: This scenario is currently running 18022024
The East-West Ukraine Standoff -Will Mutual Assured Destruction Work This Time by Imad Abdullah 09022024
Some clues for a planned war in the Middle East
THE TRIGGER OF AN UNPREDICTABLE WAR
Iran blames Israel, US for deadly blasts near grave of Guards general Soleimani 05012024
MUCH MORE DATA ARE REQUIRED
Approaching the final phase of the genocide in Gaza or/and  the trap of a 3rd world war?
The guerrilla is stronger than an occupying army
Enzo Traverso responds: Anti-Semitism, historically in decline, would see a spectacular rise
What is the evidence that the State of Israel lost the war against the Palestinians?
THE TEMPTATION TO ATTACK IRAN
NEW TOPIC by Eduard Babulak
How does the Applied Artificial Intelligence AAI and Humanoid change the way we live today and what are the future prospects for AI to become adopted?
AI: the key battleground for Cold War 2.0?
Mohamed Rabie left a reason for downloading Stochastic Model and Worldwide Conflict Resolution
Is human consciousness the dominant factor in the accuracy of modelling a physical phenomenon?
War seems imminent: each bloc mobilises its allies; the question is who will join the Ukrainians in a decisive fight?
Emmanuel Todd: «La Troisième Guerre mondiale a commencé»
The deployment of Patriot missiles in Ukraine
Can there be “Real Peace” in Ukraine instead of “Rest in Peace Ukraine”?
When and how, and what will it take?
By: Imad F Abdullah, Architect AIA
Note: Escalating Ukraine and Russia drags Europe's Capitals to Ground Zero with or without anti-nuclear pills.
October 20, 2022
Vladimir Poutine S'exprime [19 juillet 2022] à Téhéran sur RT - Aucun bluff, aucune hypocrisie/Vladimir Putin Speaks [July 19, 2022] in Tehran on RT - No bluff, no hypocrisy
END SCHEDULED FOR NOVEMBER OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE
Washington master of the game 01/06/2022
Risks and Options 14 february, 2022
How big is Russia’s military build-up around Ukraine?
I - Can Strategy forecast the outcome of war involving Russia, China or Iran, and contain an Apocalypse in the Middle East? 
By Imad F Abdullah, December 27, 2021
DISCUSSIONS (starting 28/12/2021)
ANNEX - Cartographie de l’occupation américaine en Syrie
Source: https://french.presstv.ir/Detail/2021/12/22/673197/Syrie-Hassake-base-militaire-Etats-Unis-forces-americaines--
II-a- If Lebanon crashes will the whole region blow-up? What Options from this Abyss?
II-c-Iranian drone attack gave Israel an unexpected gift
II -d- Can the present “Shut-Down” of the Israeli skies be the catalyst for peace?
II - e - Israel confirms Syrian missile landed near Dimona nuclear reactor
II-f How far is peace and how close is war: صاروخ واحد وسبعة اسئلة
II-g - Who would live and who would die: The inside story of the Iranian attack on Al Asad Airbase
II - h - UAE foreign minister meets Syria’s Assad, US slams visit to ‘dictator’
KW: Inside the attack that almost sent the U.S. to war with Iran
The toll of an Iranian ballistic missile attack
II - i- Accord entre la Syrie et les Emirats pour la construction d'une centrale photovoltaïque
III- WHERE IS THE FUTURE OF PALESTINE REGARDING RECENT NORMALIZATIONS WITH ISRAEL?
Follow-up on “Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal will impose the Two-State Solution”
IV-  Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal Will Impose The Two-State Solution
V - Where to on Palestine? By Imad F Abdullah, Architect AIA, Houston, Texas
VI - What to expect if Biden becomes President?
VII - What is the “Trigger” that could catapult Trump to a second term?
VIII- A Unfolding the November 2020 US Elections What if Trump Wins?
IX- Israeli Nukes and the Deep State: Is there anything behind the “conspiracy” theories about the explosion in Beirut?
X- NO PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST WITH M. TRUMP's Caesar law
Some Excerpts:
Looking ahead: Is Time on the Palestinians side and if not how to make it so?
WHERE IS THE FUTURE OF PALESTINE?
The Balance of power is a key issue
Would there be a viable resistance axis soon?
Can the Gulf countries normalization with Israel be addressed to regain support for Palestinians
Can Foreign powers be offered enough reasons to support and what do they expect in return?
Oslo Accords I and II
What happens to West Bank industries if terminated?
Demograpohic absorption with "One State"
What will it take to convince Israelis who fought several wars to achieve their state that being all inclusive is in their best interest
What if Israel refuses to accept Gaza within the "One State"?
If the West Bank and Gaza cannot agree on a common course, could they become two Palestinian "sister states" and would they be able to negotiate just as well?
Would a "Two States Solution" be a viable interim option for the Palestinians to get their state and then work on a merger of recognized equals with Israel?
The diaspora intelligentsia and those in Palestine need to be a full participant in this dialogue to provide ideas and answers, and provide new perspectives on how to move the discussions forward and what steps to be considered and over what time frame.
PREAMBLE " "In probability theory , a purely stochastic system is one whose state is non-deterministic (i.e., "random") so that the subsequent state of the system is determined probabilistically. Any system or process that must be analyzed using probability theory is stochastic at least in part. [1] [2] Stochastic systems and processes play a fundamental role in mathematical models of phenomena in many fields of science, engineering, and economics ." Our previous works since 1973 are based on the role of TRIGGERS to accelerate convergence, or to avoid false convergence; we succeeded in establishing strong link between war in UKRAINIA and war in SYRIA.  A stochastic model evolves with respect to new triggers. We recall the effect of a trigger to change the game , it is decisive for the benefit of a given struggle.

The present article brings game studies into dialogue with cultural memory studies and argues for the significance of computer games for historical discourse and memory politics. Drawing upon the works of Robert Rosenstone and Astrid Erll, we develop concepts and theories from film studies and adapt them to respond to the media specificity of computer games. Through a critical reading of the first chapter of the history-based first-person shooter Call of Duty: Black Ops, the article demonstrates how the game’s formal properties frame in-game experiences and performances, and this way predispose the emergence of certain memory-making potentials in and through constrained practices of play. Subsequently, an analysis of the serious game Czechoslovakia 38-89: Assassination shows the potentials of game design to facilitate meta-historical reflections and critical inquiries.

“Sykes Picot 2:  The New World Order”
By Imad F. Abdullah, October 15, 2019

http://mlfcham.com/v1/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=565:-q-q-&catid=273:vision&Itemid=875

As we witness a major reshuffling of coalitions and allegiances in Syria and especially along the Syria - Turkey border after President Trump changed course by pulling out from some positions along the Turkish border, it is timely to reconsider the concept of military superiority and how effective it is in today’s world, and to what extent this impacts the next Sykes-Picot.

War strengthens nationalism among the winners. In this age of Globalization, international commerce and integrated economies, Nationalism may not be a desired outcome. Future wars pose new challenges and the “New Wars Order” is imposing itself on all powers and the reaction to any action no longer follows prescribed norms. It's unimaginable to think of a war between the big powers nowadays for there is nowhere to hide.

"Though the decision by President Trump to move some US forces away from the Turkish border baffled many, it looks to be a well calculated approach. The plan seems to have Turkey take over M 4, the major highway connecting northern Syria from Hassaka and Mosul in Iraq to the East to Aleppo in the West and the Mediterranean. "

Last update: 14/03/2019
Obama advisor Steven Simon, explains what he believes the US needs to do to enhance its interests at present:
“ … persuade the Kurds to get rid of non-Syrian operatives, while shrinking their military capacity, and accept that they are not going to get the same deal that their Iraqi cousins have won from Baghdad. The imminence of an American withdrawal, combined with Mr. Erdogan’s suggestions that he could soon invade the Kurdish regions of Syria, will probably convince the Kurds that they have little choice. But the Syrian regime could provide meaningful incentives, such as integrating the Kurdish forces into Damascus’ chain of command …. then, either directly or through the United Nations, the United States will have to talk to the Assad regime on the premise that a restoration of Syrian state authority in northeast Syria, including the re-entry of Syrian government forces, is required to stabilize that part of the country over the long term. To this end, the United States will have to deal with the Russians as well, so there is a coordinated approach to both the Turks and the Syrian regime.”


From Manbij to Al-Hasaka:  An Axis of Isis or a New Silk Road?

Basic references:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/11/syria-troop-withdrawal-under-way-says-us-led-coalition
https://www.academia.edu/26057106/Colloque_participatif_Mondialisation_et_Editorialisation_-_project_on_knowledge_Networks_and_virtuous_cities_rebuilding-Commentaires_de_Kamal_Chaouachi_et_Nicolas_Chahine-Intervention_de_Khaled_Alfaham-_2016-10-17
https://www.academia.edu/6340619/Stochastic_Model_and_Worldwide_Conflict_Resolution_THE_Syrian_CRISIS_until_WAR

The highway designated M4 goes west from Manbij to Aleppo and to its ultimate Mediterranean destination, the city of Latakia. Eastwards from Manbij M4 connects to Al-Hasaka and onto Mosul and Irbil in Iraq. Manbij is akin to a continental crossroad  connecting with Turkey to the North and Homs to the south.

M4 has the main East-West significant bridge crossing the Euphrates River connecting the two regions on either side of the Euphrates, and whoever controls Manbij controls trade and transportation and practically the economy of that whole region.

______________________________________________
When the first partition of Syria has been planned, it was through dismantling Ottoman Empire after World War I and under the supervision of two superpower France & Great Britain. In 1946 Two states emerges Syria and Lebanon, in 1948 a new state emerges Israel on Palestine territories. But war didn’t stop, in 1967 Israel annexes West Bank, in 1981 Iran and Irak got in war, in 1991 first war launched by USA against Irak and in 2003 the invasion of Irak through a planified war. The real problem emerges when USA withdrew from Irak through no strategy objective and Kurdish state was created in the north without being through a federal scope with Bagdad. In 2012 the revolution in Syria was transformed to a wide conflict of international interests where each involved party has established their affiliated guerrilla. Who are the involved nations? USA indirectly through Saudi Arabia and Turkey , Iran indirectly through Syria Regime and Hezbollah, backed by Russia; The chaos created uncontrolled guerrilla with the emergence of Islamic State who is establishing a durable state, Kurdish army backed by USA is establishing his own state. What could be the future? No possibility of federal state like Germany with Landers structure for instance, because this needs democracy and a direct link to a central government. Syria is now ruined and no way to build a central system, democracy can’t be build without a constitution applied by all parties; but since every civilian and military party is under the control of a foreign godfather with conflictual interests no way to establish dialogue between the different protagonist. So dismantling of Syria is becoming an hypothetical solution. Economically speaking this will ruin Syria and postpone rebuilding process until Syrian citizens awaken from the biggest tragedy since Sykes Picot I (1916).
Amin Elsaleh

Years ago a friend of mine showed me a money coin minted in Jerusalem in 1915 with the inscription “Jerusalem, Syria” (in Arabic).
We all tend to give Sykes Picot a lot of importance since we lived its consequences. In reality it is a continuation of many such divisions that befell the Arab world and many other non-Arab countries for hundreds of years.
The future for the Middle East is yet to come but we can look at where the trends are. As a time frame the last five years are blip in the history of nations, Syria in particular. Peace will arrive at some time, and those who stayed in Syria will have a chance to benefit from the large asset base of Syria and its natural resources since the population has been thinned out considerably with migration and non-returning refugees. Historically this occurred after the Tatars invaded Syria several hundred years ago and thinned out the population. Otherwise Syria may have been similar to heavily overpopulated countries and all the problems of poverty and deprivation.

Syria is at a crossroads: Russia has been able to retain its place as a world power and is not wavering in its support of the regime, and the NATO/US alliance seems to be looking now at the next geographic hot spot, the China Sea and North Korea, and they seem to be content with the status quo and to let Syria find its way, knowing the damage has stalled Syria for a couple of decades.
Imad F Abdullah

Atualmente, somente Estados Unidos, Rússia, Reino Unido,
França, China e Índia possuem submarinos com propulsão
nuclear. A situação singular do Brasil, por ser o primeiro país
sem armas nucleares a ter essa tecnologia e por, provavelmente,
ser o primeiro país a colocar o combustível nuclear naval sob
salvaguardas faz com que ele receba pressões para aderir ao
Protocolo Adicional (PA) da Agência Internacional de Energia
Atômica (AIEA). O artigo tem como finalidade a apresentação
de um projeto preliminar de uma simulação, como ferramenta
de auxílio à tomada de decisão de alto nível, a fim de fazer
frente às tendências e incertezas que possam interferir com
o projeto do Submarino Convencional de Propulsão Nuclear
Brasileiro (SCPN). Para tal propósito, são usadas as teorias
dos jogos, as de tomada de decisão, as de simulações/jogos de
guerra e de análise. Foi verificado que, partindo da premissa
que o SCPN será comissionado em 2029 é importante que o
Brasil tenha tomado uma decisão em relação ao PA da AIEA
antes desse ano e que cenários prospectivos possam ser
revistos ou reformulados anualmente ou a cada dois anos para
estejam atualizados, de modo a aumentar a probabilidade de
se atender aos interesses brasileiros.
Palavras-chave: SCPN. Simulação. Defesa.