- Brazilian Earth System Scientistedit
The impact of natural hazards on nations and societies is a global challenge and concern. Studies worldwide have been conducted within and among countries, to examine the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of fatalities and their... more
The impact of natural hazards on nations and societies is a global challenge and concern. Studies worldwide have been conducted within and among countries, to examine the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of fatalities and their consequences in societies. In Brazil, no studies have comprehensively identified fatalities associated with all natural hazards and their singularities by decade, region, sex, age, and other victim characteristics. This study develops a deep analysis on the Brazilian Data Mortality of the Brazilian Ministry of Health, from 1979 to 2019, identifying the natural hazards that kill the greatest number of people in Brazil and its surrounding particularities. Lightning is the deadliest natural hazard in Brazil during this period, with a gradual decrease in the number of fatal victims. Hydrogeological fatalities increases from 2000, and the most fatalities develop from 2010 to 2019. Despite Brazil being a tropical country affected by severe droughts, extr...
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Research Interests: Environmental Science, Oceanography, Climatology, Climate variability, Peru, and 15 moreClimate, Predictability, Climate Dynamics, Seasonality, Atmospheric sciences, Climate Studies, Climate Model, Precipitation, Northeast Brazil, Annual Cycle, Monsoon Rainfall, Global Climate Model, Rainfall Simulation, Interannual Variability, and Atmospheric GCM
Research Interests: Environmental Science, Oceanography, Climatology, Performance, Climate, and 13 moreSeasonality, Atmospheric sciences, Numerical Simulation, South America, Weather Forecasting, General Circulation Models, Atmospheric Circulation, Southern Hemisphere, Energy Budget, Initial Condition, Climate Simulation, Seasonal Cycle, and Global Climatological
Research Interests: Environmental Science, Climate Change, Agroforestry, Climate, Multidisciplinary, and 15 moreLand Cover, Evapotranspiration, Land Use, Rainforest, Soybean, Precipitation, Amazon rainforest, Pasture, Geophysical, Large Scale, Land Cover Mapping, Business as Usual, surface air temperature, Regional Climate Change, and Dry Season
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Research Interests: Environmental policy, Typology, Political Science, Environmental Ethics, Environmental Policy and Governance, and 13 morePseudoscience, Biological Sciences, science and technology studies (STS), Environmental Sciences, Biological Conservation, Environmental science and policy, Agnotology, Science Policy Interface, Deforestation, Climate change denial, Odds, Denialism, and Science and Technology Studies
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A “Carta de São Paulo” apresentou diagnósticos, análises e soluções para o problema da crise hídrica no Sudeste. Mesmo após vários meses de sua publicação, ela ainda é atual e, por isso, é reproduzida na abertura deste Dossiê. Redução de... more
A “Carta de São Paulo” apresentou diagnósticos, análises e soluções para o problema da crise hídrica no Sudeste. Mesmo após vários meses de sua publicação, ela ainda é atual e, por isso, é reproduzida na abertura deste Dossiê. Redução de demanda, mudanças no sistema de governança da água, uso intensivo de mais tecnologia para reúso, monitoramento intensivo da qualidade da água são algumas das principais recomendações dos especialistas que a elaboraram.
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ABSTRACT The river flow regime of the Amazon basin exhibits considerable variability at the interannual and interdecadal scales. A major source of variation is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. El Niño events cause a... more
ABSTRACT The river flow regime of the Amazon basin exhibits considerable variability at the interannual and interdecadal scales. A major source of variation is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. El Niño events cause a decrease in rainfall, river flow, and inundation patterns throughout the entire region, with the strongest reductions happening in the northern part of the basin. On the other hand, La Niña events cause increased river flow for the northern tributaries and the main stream, but apparently do not cause a discernible pattern of climate variability in the southern part of the basin. ENSO events are different one from the other. While most El Niño events cause reductions in precipitation and river flow over the entire area of northern Amazonia, some El Niño events change precipitation only over northwestern Amazonia. The strength of the ENSO events through the decades is modulated by an interdecadal signal possibly associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. La Niña (rainy) events are rainier during the 1940s-1950s and 1970s, while El Niño (dry) events are drier during the 1960s and since the 1980s. It is also apparent that the interannual variability was damped during the 1930s-1960s. In addition to these modes of variability caused by varying rainfall patterns, in some regions where changes in land cover are extensive, changes in evapotranspiration may drive increases in river flow, increasing the runoff coefficient. This has been clearly documented for the Tocantins basin, and there is evidence that the Óbidos runoff coefficient is also increasing.
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The Amazonian forest’s ability to provide environmental services is threatened by anthropogenic forcing at various scales, such as deforestation, fire, global and regional climate change, and extreme events. In addition to the impacts... more
The Amazonian forest’s ability to provide environmental services is threatened by anthropogenic forcing at various scales, such as deforestation, fire, global and regional climate change, and extreme events. In addition to the impacts resulting from each one of these drivers, the synergistic effects potentially increase the risks. In the light of the above, this chapter aims to evaluate the future prospects for the Amazon in a scenario of 4 °C or higher warming resulting from anthropogenic climate change and the related hydrological cycle changes. Future climate scenarios project progressively higher warming that may exceed 4 °C in Amazonia in the second half of the century, particularly during the dry season in the region. Associated with these scenarios, it is projected a reduction of precipitation year-round, being a substantial reduction predominantly in the dry and transition seasons and smaller reductions of the order of 5% for the SH summer. Evaluating the consequences of such substantial climatic change, several negative effects in Amazonia can be anticipated, including short-term hydrological changes similar to the events associated to the extreme 2005 and 2010 droughts, and longer time-scale modifications of broad scale characteristics such as different biome distribution. Based on hydrological models, it is generally expected a reduction in river discharges associated to precipitation decreases and temperature increases brought about by projected climate change, but with the magnitude of the changes differing between models. The future climate change scenarios imply important changes in biomes distribution over Amazonia, with potential expansion of savannah and caatinga over large areas currently occupied by tropical forests. It is necessary a reduction to nearly zero in tropical deforestation and reducing land-cover emissions and mitigating climate change to avoid a dangerous interference with the ability of natural ecosystems to adapt to these possible changes.
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During most of the rainy season in 2014, the Southeast of Brazil – including the Cantareira reservoir system – received below-normal rainfall. The main cause leading to that heavy lack of rain was an intense, persistent and anomalous... more
During most of the rainy season in 2014, the Southeast of Brazil – including the Cantareira reservoir system – received below-normal rainfall. The main cause leading to that heavy lack of rain was an intense, persistent and anomalous highpressure system blocking moisture flow from the Amazon and the development and passage of cold front systems and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, which are responsible for rainfall in this region during summer. This blocking system lasted for 45 days, which is extremely rare. Low rainfall amounts coupled with an increased demand for water and an inefficient water management system led to the so-called “water crisis” during 2014, which extended into 2015
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O Brasil, país de dimensões continentais que se estende desde o hemisfério norte (5°N) até as latitudes médias do Hemisfério Sul (34°S) e de 33°W experimenta uma variedade de climas com distintas características regionais. Os climas... more
O Brasil, país de dimensões continentais que se estende desde o hemisfério norte (5°N) até as latitudes médias do Hemisfério Sul (34°S) e de 33°W experimenta uma variedade de climas com distintas características regionais. Os climas encontrados no país vão desde o clima equatorial chuvoso sem estação seca (altos índices pluviométricos e pequena flutuação térmica durante o ano), como o encontrado em grande parte da Amazônia Ocidental, até o clima típico de atitudes médias, (grande flutuação térmica durante o ano, estação seca de verão bem definida e estação chuvosa no inverno associada à incursão de frentes frias), como o observado no extremo sul do pais. No nordeste encontramos um clima típico de regiões semi-áridas: baixos índices pluviométricos na maior parte da região e estação chuvosa concentrada em poucos meses. Nas regiões Sul, Sudeste e Centro-Oeste, por se situarem próximas ou nos sub-trópicos, as características climáticas sofrem influência tanto dos trópicos como das latit...
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To the extent that many studies of the last two decades deepen the understanding about the Amazon tropical forest and more is known about the environmental services it offers, they also increased our level of awareness about the growing... more
To the extent that many studies of the last two decades deepen the understanding about the Amazon tropical forest and more is known about the environmental services it offers, they also increased our level of awareness about the growing threats that this system has been subjected to. In addition to the process of uncontrolled expansion of the agriculture frontier, the Amazon, for its large scale, is an ecosystem highly susceptible to climate at regional and global scales. In this chapter we address issues related to environmental drivers of change in the Amazon: deforestation, climate, climate extremes, and fire. The goal is to present aspects of a synergistic action of these effects and the possible responses of Amazonian ecosystems to these drivers of change: (1) short-term responses as the mortality of some species (biodiversity loss), loss of living biomass with consequent influence on storage, and exchanges of carbon with the atmosphere to (2) long-term responses, such as ‘savannization’ and Amazon dieback. On the other hand, it has been hypothesized that the forest may show some degree of resilience to tolerate those impacts before starting to respond with degradation of the ecosystems. One of the challenges of Amazonian science today is to find out how close those drivers might be from exceeding ‘tipping points’ of stability of the Amazonian system.
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ABSTRACT This chapter summarizes our current knowledge on the mean climatological features of Amazonia. Significant uncertainties remain in our understanding of the complex dynamics of climate and climate variability in that region, which... more
ABSTRACT This chapter summarizes our current knowledge on the mean climatological features of Amazonia. Significant uncertainties remain in our understanding of the complex dynamics of climate and climate variability in that region, which are due, in part, to the lack of observational data. The strong seasonality of the rainfall and the relatively rapid transition between the wet and dry season associated with onset of the rainy season is related to the establishment of the South America Monsoon System (SAMS). The SAMS is controlled by large-scale thermodynamic conditions influenced by the near-equatorial sea surface temperature (SST). It has been suggested that land-surface dryness in the dry season is the main cause of the delay in the onset of the subsequent wet season. The 30- to 60-day oscillation is the major mode of intraseasonal variability. Interannual variability of the hydroclimatic system is strongly related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation. More generally, tropical Pacific and Atlantic SSTs control rainfall variability in Amazonia, and SW Atlantic SST anomalies influence the variability of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Land surface-atmosphere interactions have been proposed as a possible dynamical mechanism for the unexplained variance at the annual and interannual timescales. At decadal and interdecadal timescales, rainfall variability is related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation mainly over the southern portions, and linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation. At paleoclimate timescales, there is large uncertainty on major aspects of rainfall variability over tropical South America. For instance, there remains uncertainty on the basic character of rainfall anomalies over Amazonia, whether drier or wetter, during the Last Glacial Maximum, and paleoclimate reconstructions still suffer from lack of data.
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Climate and vegetation interact biodirectionally on many time and spatial scales. One clear manifestation of such interactions is the global pattern land cover and its relationship to climate. It can be said that climate is the single... more
Climate and vegetation interact biodirectionally on many time and spatial scales. One clear manifestation of such interactions is the global pattern land cover and its relationship to climate. It can be said that climate is the single factor that exerts the largest influence on ...
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Recentemente Ambrizzi et al. (2007), utilizando três modelos regionais que foram integrados numericamente para a América do Sul, a partir de dados iniciais obtidos do modelo climático global do Hadley Centre, concluíram que para o período... more
Recentemente Ambrizzi et al. (2007), utilizando três modelos regionais que foram integrados numericamente para a América do Sul, a partir de dados iniciais obtidos do modelo climático global do Hadley Centre, concluíram que para o período 2071-2100, em relação ao ...
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Este trabalho busca apresentar, de uma maneira compacta, os principais resultados científicos já alcançados pela comunidade brasileira e mundial sobre pesquisas na Amazônia. Aborda-se o paleoclima da região, bem como as características... more
Este trabalho busca apresentar, de uma maneira compacta, os principais resultados científicos já alcançados pela comunidade brasileira e mundial sobre pesquisas na Amazônia. Aborda-se o paleoclima da região, bem como as características atuais, em termos de temperatura do ar e da distribuição de chuvas. São discutidos os principais sistemas atmosféricos atuantes na região, tais como linhas de instabilidade, brisa fluvial, teleconexões com El-Niño, interação com sistemas frontais no sul do país, friagens, além da variabilidade do clima nas escalas interanuais e de longo-prazo. Tendo em vista as altas taxas de desmatamento em algumas partes da Amazônia, são discutidos as principais modificações microclimáticas e resultados obtidos por simulações numéricas devido à substituição de floresta tropical por áreas de pastagens. Finalizando, é apresentado um resumo dos vários experimentos micrometeorológicos que ocorreram na Amazônia nas últimas duas décadas.
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As estações automáticas do Projeto ABRACOS instaladas na Amazônia Ocidental forneceram os dados horários de precipitação em áreas de pastagem e floresta, durante o trimestre mais chuvoso (j/f/m) no período de 1992 a 1995. A variabilidade... more
As estações automáticas do Projeto ABRACOS instaladas na Amazônia Ocidental forneceram os dados horários de precipitação em áreas de pastagem e floresta, durante o trimestre mais chuvoso (j/f/m) no período de 1992 a 1995. A variabilidade diária de precipitação maior que 1 mm h1 mostrou uma frequência relativa de 6,7% dos casos às 14 horas local (hl) na pastagem e 5,7% às 16 hl na floresta. O período da tarde (13-18 hl) registra acima de 30% dos eventos de precipitação em ambos os sítios. Há uma boa regularidade na distribuição horária dos eventos, principalmente na floresta. Para as precipitações maiores que 10 mm h1, existe uma concentração dos casos no final da tarde. Na pastagem 12,3%, e na floresta 11,5% dos eventos ocorrem às 18 hl. O intervalo entre 7-18 hl detém 64,9% dos casos na pastagem, e 57,7% na floresta. Do total de eventos de precipitação, 14% são maiores que 10 mm h1, tanto na floresta como na pastagem. Comparando-se o total de chuva ocorrido nas áreas de floresta e ...
Research Interests: Forestry, Biology, Amazonia, Multidisciplinary, Forest, and 8 moreVariability, Rainfall, Floresta, Pasture, ACTA, Precipitação, Pastagem, and daily variability
Research Interests: Climate Change and Risks
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Espelhando-se na estrutura do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC), o INCT para Mudanças Climáticas se or-ganizou em três eixos científicos principais: (i) base científica das mudan-ças ambientais globais; (ii)... more
Espelhando-se na estrutura do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC), o INCT para Mudanças Climáticas se or-ganizou em três eixos científicos principais: (i) base científica das mudan-ças ambientais globais; (ii) impactos-adaptação-vulnerabilidade; e (iii) mitigação, e incluiu também esforços de inovação tecnológica através do desenvolvimento de modelos computacionais do sistema climático, geo-sensores para medir a concentração de gases de efeito estufa e sistema de prevenção de desastres naturais. Essa temática científica foi organizada em 26 subprojetos de pesquisa: A Base Científica:
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To the extent that many studies of the last two decades deepen the understanding about the Amazon tropical forest and more is known about the environmental services it offers, they also increased our level of awareness about the growing... more
To the extent that many studies of the last two decades deepen the understanding about the Amazon tropical forest and more is known about the environmental services it offers, they also increased our level of awareness about the growing threats that this system has been subjected to. In addition to the process of uncontrolled expansion of the agriculture frontier, the Amazon, for its large scale, is an ecosystem highly susceptible to climate at regional and global scales. In this chapter we address issues related to environmental drivers of change in the Amazon: deforestation, climate, climate extremes, and fire. The goal is to present aspects of a synergistic action of these effects and the possible responses of Amazonian ecosystems to these drivers of change: (1) short-term responses as the mortality of some species (biodiversity loss), loss of living biomass with consequent influence on storage, and exchanges of carbon with the atmosphere to (2) long-term responses, such as ‘savannization’ and Amazon dieback. On the other hand, it has been hypothesized that the forest may show some degree of resilience to tolerate those impacts before starting to respond with degradation of the ecosystems. One of the challenges of Amazonian science today is to find out how close those drivers might be from exceeding ‘tipping points’ of stability of the Amazonian system.
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Current climate change projections indicate that heavy rainfall is an increasing problem in many areas around the world, including the São Paulo Metropolitan Region, Brazil. This will result in severe flooding and landslides in the... more
Current climate change projections indicate that heavy rainfall is an increasing problem in many areas around the world, including the São Paulo Metropolitan Region, Brazil. This will result in severe flooding and landslides in the upcoming years. Therefore, the geography of climate change vulnerability is vital to adaptation planning. Using Geographic Information System (GIS) and mapping tools such as digital elevation models (DEM), this chapter identifies the main areas affected by floods and landslides. We characterize such areas by their biophysical dimensions and socio-economic status. In turn, we not only focus on the physical environment but examine the geography of socio-political determinants of vulnerability. Overall, this chapter will highlight which areas are vulnerable to climate change and what we can expect in 2030.
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Projeções indicam que, caso o padrão de expansão da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP) seja mantido conforme registros históricos, a mancha urbana será aproximadamente 38% maior que a atual em 2030, aumentando os riscos de... more
Projeções indicam que, caso o padrão de expansão da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP) seja mantido conforme registros históricos, a mancha urbana será aproximadamente 38% maior que a atual em 2030, aumentando os riscos de enchentes, inundações e deslizamentos, atingindo cada vez mais a população como um todo e, sobretudo, os mais pobres.
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This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the... more
This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the early experiments on Amazon deforestation in the late 1970s, and the evolution of these experiments to the latest studies on greenhouse gases emission scenarios and land use changes until the end of the twenty-first century. The " Amazon dieback " simulated by the HadCM3 model occurs after a " tipping point " of CO 2 concentration and warming. Experiments on Amazon deforestation and change of climate suggest that once a critical deforestation threshold (or tipping point) of 40–50% forest loss is reached in eastern Amazonia, climate would change in a way which is dangerous for the remaining forest. This may favor a collapse of the tropical forest, with a substitution of the forest by savanna-type vegetation. The concept of " dangerous climate change, " as a climate change, which induces positive feedback, which accelerate the change, is strongly linked to the occurrence of tipping points, and it can be explained as the presence of feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, particularly involving a weakening of the current terrestrial carbon sink and a possible reversal from a sink (as in present climate) to a source by the year 2050. We must, therefore, currently consider the drying simulated by the Hadley Centre model(s) as having a finite probability under global warming, with a potentially enormous impact, but with some degree of uncertainty.
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This chapter summarizes selected results from the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) and briefly describes a vision for future Amazonian research. The need for research on people and environment interactions is... more
This chapter summarizes selected results from the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) and briefly describes a vision for future Amazonian research. The need for research on people and environment interactions is emphasized in the context of regional and global change. LBA developed institutional and scientific capacity in Amazonia, but its performance to promote sustainable development was restricted because the program has predominantly emphasized the advancement of basic knowledge, with less emphasis on integrative studies explicitly designed to influence public policies with consequences on land use and land cover. The challenge of transforming the natural goods of Amazonia into human and economic benefits in an environmentally sustainable manner requires a new level of consciousness and collaborative work through the ability to move from simple diagnosis in the direction of actions at local, regional, and national levels. From the results of LBA, we may evolve to new experiences in which society will add value to the interactions between the biosphere and the atmosphere.
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As influências do homem no equilíbrio natural do planeta preocupam. As mudanças climáticas antropogênicas estão associadas às atividades humanas com o aumento da poluição, de queimadas, com o desmatamento, a formação de ilhas de calor... more
As influências do homem no equilíbrio natural do planeta preocupam. As mudanças climáticas antropogênicas estão associadas às atividades humanas com o aumento da poluição, de queimadas, com o desmatamento, a formação de ilhas de calor etc. A partir do final do século XIX e no século XX há aumento significativo da produção industrial e da quantidade de poluentes na atmosfera, sobretudo nos últimos 70 anos, e da quantidade dos chamados gases estufa na atmosfera, tais como o dióxido de carbono (CO 2), o metano (CH 4) e os óxidos de nitrogênio (NOx) e, portanto, a intensificação do efeito estufa. Com isso, há também um crescente aumento da temperatura média, o chamado aquecimento global. A década de 1990 foi a mais quente do milênio, e o ano de 2005 foi o mais quente já registrado por métodos diretos de medida. As projeções do IPCC em 2007 indicam para o final deste século aumento da temperatura média global entre 1,8 °C e 4,0 °C e aumento do nível médio do mar entre 0,18 m e 0,59 m, o que pode afetar significativamente as atividades humanas e os ecossistemas terrestres. O segundo e terceiro relatórios de mudanças climáticas do IPCC (1996, 2001) demonstraram que o aquecimento global tem alta probabilidade de ser causado pelas emissões antrópicas de gases de efeito estufa. Já o quarto relatório (2007) aponta para a influência do homem como o responsável pelo aquecimento global. O gradual aquecimento provoca maior dinâmica atmosférica, acelerando os ciclos hidrológico e de energia na atmosfera, que consequentemente podem afetar a frequência e a intensidade de eventos climáticos extremos. Tanto as mudanças médias do clima quanto o possível aumento da frequência dos extremos poderiam ampliar a instabilidade dos ecossistemas e acelerar as taxas naturais de extinção de espécies.