- Koc University, College of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Department of International Relations, Rumelifeneri Yolu, Sariyer, Istanbul 34450 Turkey
- 90-212-3381670
Ziya Öniş
Koç University, Department of International Relations, Faculty Member
- Political Economy of Development, International Relations, Political Economy, Political Science, Comparative Politics, Democratization, and 26 moreEuropean Politics, Political Parties, Turkish Foreign Policy, Political Islam, Global Studies, Comparative Political Economy, Turkey And Europe, Multilateral Institutions, Democratization Studies, Political economy of regulation, Political Economy of Globalisation, Comparative Political Economy of Crises, Political Economy of Financial Regulation, Development Studies, Culture, Civil Society and the Public Sphere, Cross-Cultural Studies, Cultural Politics, Empowerment, Globalization, New Left, Saskia Sassen, Turkey in World Politics, Ontological Security, Capitalism, and Public Policyedit
The May 2023 elections in Turkey are puzzling because public support for President Erdoğan did not erode despite political-economic failures of considerable magnitude. The economy was ailing, the government's performance in containing... more
The May 2023 elections in Turkey are puzzling because public support for President Erdoğan did not erode despite political-economic failures of considerable magnitude. The economy was ailing, the government's performance in containing natural disasters was dismal, and oscillations in foreign policy were perplexing. Yet, Erdoğan managed to win elections once again, giving him the mandate to continue ruling the country over the next five years. What explains this political outcome in the face of 'multiple governance crises'? We adopt Albert O. Hirschman's 'exit, voice, and loyalty' framework to explain the multiple but interrelated sources of the resilience of authoritarian populism in Turkey. We suggest the 'exit, voice, and loyalty' equilibrium in the 2023 Turkish elections requires an integrated analysis along two dimensions, each interacting with and mutually reinforcing the other: the economy-identity nexus and the domestic-external nexus.
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BD ve Çin arasındaki mücadelenin ön plana çıktığı yeni küresel politik ve ekonomik resimde, üç ayrı kutuptan söz etmek mümkün. Bir tarafta ilişkileri sıkılaşan Rusya-Çin, bir tarafta ABD-Avrupa, diğer tarafta da Hindistan, Pakistan ve... more
BD ve Çin arasındaki mücadelenin ön plana çıktığı yeni küresel politik ve ekonomik resimde, üç ayrı kutuptan söz etmek mümkün. Bir tarafta ilişkileri sıkılaşan Rusya-Çin, bir tarafta ABD-Avrupa, diğer tarafta da Hindistan, Pakistan ve Türkiye gibi ülkelerin de aralarında bulunduğu, "Küresel Güney" olarak adlandırılan, gelişmekte olan ülkeler konumlanıyor. Koç Üniversitesi Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Öğretim Üyesi Prof. Dr. Ziya Öniş ile küresel pandemi ve Rusya'nın Ukrayna'ya saldırısı derken ABD-Çin ekseninde değişen dünya düzenini konuştuk. 2022'deki G20 zirvesinde Biden-Jinping görüşmesi sonrası belli bir düzleme oturtulan ilişkiler, Şubat 2023'te ortaya çıkan casus balon kriziyle yeniden gerildi ve ABD Dışişleri Bakanı Antony Blinken'ın Pekin'e yapacağı geziyi iptal etmesiyle sonuçlandı. Rusya-Çin görüşmesiyle dış politika ısındı. ABD-Çin ilişkilerinde neler oluyor? Tarihsel bir perspektifle bakarsak, 2000'lerin başından itibaren dünya ekonomisinde Çin'in çok ciddi bir yükselişi var. Çin'in dışa açılma, dünya ekonomisine entegre olma süreci, 1970'lerin sonunda, 1980'lerin başında başlıyor. Çin'in yükselişinin ivme kazanması 2000'li yıllarda oluyor. 2008-2009 küresel finans krizi de "Batı" ile yükselen ekonomiler arasındaki dengeyi daha da değiştiriyor. Çin daha da güçlenmeye başlıyor. Zaten 2008-2009 yılları bir dönüm noktası; artık G20 önem kazanmaya başlıyor. Küresel G20'ye baktığınız zaman içinde G7 ülkeleri de var. Ama G7'nin dışında yükselen ülkeler ilk defa ciddi bir şekilde temsil edilmeye başlıyor. Bunların arasında Türkiye de var. 2013'te Şi Jinping'in Çin Devlet Başkanı olması da bir başka önemli dönüm noktası. Şi aslında o zamana kadar temkinli bir şekilde yükselen Çin'i önemli bir aktör olarak gündeme getirmeye başlıyor. Çin artık kendini sadece yükselen bir güç olarak değil, ABD ile rekabet edebilecek, ileride hegemon olabilecek bir ülke olarak görüyor. Bu nedenle Şi Jinping dönemi çok önemli. 2013 yılında başlayan ve 2014-2015 itibarı ile Çin'i daha görünür kılan Çin'in mega projesi İpek Yolu Projesi'nden söz etmek gerek. Artık Çin, kendini çok daha özgüvenli bir lider ülke konumunda görüyor. Çin'in yükselişinden giderek rahatsız olan bir ABD var. Donald Trump'ın başkanlık döneminde ilk defa Çin'e karşı ciddi birtakım yaptırımlar, korumacılık eylemleri uygulanmaya başlıyor. Biden yönetimi, Trump yönetiminden oldukça farklı birçok konuda ama mesela Çin'e karşı tutum, Çin'i sınırlama stratejisi ve korumacılığın devamı açısından aslında bir süreklilik arz ediyor. Son yıllarda giderek artan ticaret ve teknoloji alanında bir rekabet görüyoruz. Ek olarak son dönemde ciddi jeopolitik tansiyon artışları ve özellikle Tayvan üzerinden de sıcak bir çatışma olma ihtimali ortaya çıkıyor. Artık rahatlıkla yeni bir "Soğuk Savaş" döneminde olduğumuzu söyleyebiliriz. Burada bir dönüm noktası da Rusya'nın Ukrayna'ya saldırısı. Bu savaş, Batı bloğunda bir birleşmeye neden oldu. Bunu uluslararası hukukun ihlali olarak gördüler. NATO'nun tekrar bir canlanma sürecinden geçtiğini görüyoruz. Daha önce sorunlar yaşayan Avrupa Birliği-ABD ilişkilerinde bir toparlanma oldu. Fakat aynı zamanda da Rusya'yla Çin daha da yakınlaştı. Çin, Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı'nın en büyük kazananı. Çin, bu süreçten güçlenerek çıktı. Savaş, Rusya'yı da bir miktar zayıflattı.
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Turkey's forthcoming general election of June 2023 is likely to prove a crucial turning point in the country's political trajectory. Depending on the outcome of the election, Turkey may find itself on the path of democratic renewal or... more
Turkey's forthcoming general election of June 2023 is likely to prove a crucial turning point in the country's political trajectory. Depending on the outcome of the election, Turkey may find itself on the path of democratic renewal or further consolidation or deepening of the existing competitive authoritarian regime. The paper presents a critical account of the last four years under the new presidential regime and tries to locate the Turkish experience in the broader debate on varieties of right-wing populism. A central hypothesis is that the ongoing economic crisis has, to a certain extent, undermined the popularity of the AKP and the governing coalition. At the same time, we should not underestimate the resilience of the ruling coalition in the face of continued economic growth and the importance of additional dynamics such as the role of identity politics and domestic politics-foreign policy interactions. Öz 2023 Haziran'da gerçekleşecek Cumhurbaşkanlığı Seçimleri ve Genel Seçimler, Türkiye'nin siyasi gidişatı için çok önemli bir dönüm noktası olma potansiyeline sahip. Türkiye, seçim sonuçlarına bağlı olarak, kendisini demokrasinin yeniden inşa edildiği veya var olan rekabetçi otoriter rejimin daha da konsolide olduğu ve derinleştiği bir senaryoyla karşı karşıya bulabilir. Bu makale, yeni başkanlık sistemi altında geçen son dört yılın kritik bir değerlendirmesini yaparken aynı zamanda Türkiye'nin deneyimini genel anlamdaki sağ popülizm tartışmaları çerçevesinde anlamlandırmaya çalışıyor. Ana hipoteze göre devam eden ekonomik kriz, belirli bir ölçüde, AKP'nin ve Cumhur İttifakı'nın halk içerisindeki popülerliğini zayıflattı. Diğer bir taraftan, yönetimdeki koalisyonun ekonomik büyümenin devamlılığını sağlamasıyla beraber kimlik politikaları ve iç politika-dış politika etkileşimi gibi farklı dinamiklerde gösterdiği direnç, seçim öncesi dikkate alınması gereken unsurları oluşturuyor.
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Turkish-European Union (EU) relations in the broader context of the transatlantic alliance have been one of the defining features of Turkish foreign policy in the postwar era. The article identifies elements of the cyclical nature of the... more
Turkish-European Union (EU) relations in the broader context of the transatlantic alliance have been one of the defining features of Turkish foreign policy in the postwar era. The article identifies elements of the cyclical nature of the relationship and missed opportunities, notably in the 1970s and the early 2000s, which have been costly both to Turkey and the EU. Domestic politics and crises both in Turkey and the EU have played an important role in shaping the long-term dynamics of this complex and mutually important relationship. The emerging post-Western order has contributed to the decline and recent stalemate in Turkey-EU relations. The article probes into the possibilities of a revival in Turkey-EU relations and consider whether the Russian war against Ukraine will create a new opportunity for a revival of the relationship as part of a new wave of enlargement, which was not on the agenda previously.
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The future of liberal democracy appears to be uncertain. This article develops a holistic approach to examine the prospects of liberal democracy by focusing on how three main regime types-that is, "established democratic regimes," "hybrid... more
The future of liberal democracy appears to be uncertain. This article develops a holistic approach to examine the prospects of liberal democracy by focusing on how three main regime types-that is, "established democratic regimes," "hybrid regimes," and "established authoritarian regimes"-interact with each other. We argue structural global political economy trends, which largely created the current authoritarian populist tide, remain strong despite signs of democratic renewal emerged with the recent new green Keynesian turn in established Western democracies, a more unified transatlantic response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and growing political-economic fragility of key hybrid regimes ruled by authoritarian populist leaders. Also, the resilience of various types of autocracies which co-exist and reinforce one another through economic linkages and political coalitions should not be underestimated, especially demonstrative effects of the Russia-China partnership. Both democratic and authoritarian forms of capitalism face serious problems of income and wealth inequality, raising challenges over "performance legitimacy" in both regime types. In this context, the performance and political-economic orientation of hybrid regimes will have a crucial bearing on the fortunes of liberal democracy on a global scale.
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The conventional literature on the role of middle powers emphasises the importance of soft power, niche diplomacy and coalition building. This article explores a case of unusual middle power activism with a focus on recent Turkish foreign... more
The conventional literature on the role of middle powers emphasises the importance of soft power, niche diplomacy and coalition building. This article explores a case of unusual middle power activism with a focus on recent Turkish foreign policy behaviour. It demonstrates how the interaction of domestic politics and external dynamics produced an unusual degree of foreign policy activism, going well beyond conventional middle power behaviour, with the government increasingly employing coercive diplomacy and militaristic methods. We demonstrate that unusual middle power activism in a shifting international order yielded 'populist dividends' to the ruling elite in the short run but led to a 'triple governance crisis' in the economy, politics and foreign policy, with each element feeding into the others in a path-dependent fashion.
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This article sketches an analytical framework to account for new patterns of global governance. We characterize the emergent post-liberal international order as a new age of hybridity, which signifies that no overriding set of paradigms... more
This article sketches an analytical framework to account for new patterns of global governance. We characterize the emergent post-liberal international order as a new age of hybridity, which signifies that no overriding set of paradigms dominate global governance. Instead we have a complex web of competing norms, which creates new opportunities as well as major elements of instability, uncertainty and anxiety. In the age of hybridity, non-Western great powers (led by China) play an increasingly counter-hegemonic role in shaping new style multilateralism-ontologically fragmented, normatively inconsistent, and institutionally incoherent. We argue that democracy paradox constitutes the fundamental issue at stake in this new age of hybridity. On the one hand, global power transitions seem to enable 'democratization of globalization' by opening more space to the hitherto excluded non-Western states to make their voices heard. On the other hand, emerging pluralism in global governance is accompanied by the regression of liberal democracy and spread of illiberalism that enfeeble 'globalization of democratization.'
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The European Union (EU) faces an existential crisis. The ‘liberal core’, which played an important role in transforming the ‘illiberal-authoritarian periphery’ in much of the post-war period, suffers from a series of setbacks. What we... more
The European Union (EU) faces an existential crisis. The ‘liberal core’, which played an
important role in transforming the ‘illiberal-authoritarian periphery’ in much of the post-war period, suffers from a series of setbacks. What we experience today is a process of ‘reverse transformation’ in European integration, where the pendulum swings in the direction of the illiberal-authoritarian periphery. This paper argues that the possibility of reverse transformation, i.e., the power of the illiberal periphery to influence the liberal core, emerged as a real possibility for the first time in the history of European integration. The present paper makes a contribution to the growing debate on the sources of the EU’s crisis and its future from a global political economy perspective. We suggest that a refined ‘core-periphery framework,’ located at the intersection of global push-and-pull dynamics, provides a better analytical toolkit to explain the properties and nature of reverse transformation in European integration with its potential implications on the future of Europe.
Keywords: Multiple crises of the EU, reverse transformation, illiberal periphery, global
political economy, de-Europeanization.
important role in transforming the ‘illiberal-authoritarian periphery’ in much of the post-war period, suffers from a series of setbacks. What we experience today is a process of ‘reverse transformation’ in European integration, where the pendulum swings in the direction of the illiberal-authoritarian periphery. This paper argues that the possibility of reverse transformation, i.e., the power of the illiberal periphery to influence the liberal core, emerged as a real possibility for the first time in the history of European integration. The present paper makes a contribution to the growing debate on the sources of the EU’s crisis and its future from a global political economy perspective. We suggest that a refined ‘core-periphery framework,’ located at the intersection of global push-and-pull dynamics, provides a better analytical toolkit to explain the properties and nature of reverse transformation in European integration with its potential implications on the future of Europe.
Keywords: Multiple crises of the EU, reverse transformation, illiberal periphery, global
political economy, de-Europeanization.
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COURSE DESCRIPTION: The course aims to provide an in-depth coverage of the political economy of globalization and development with a particular focus on emerging powers and their changing role in the global political economy. The first... more
COURSE DESCRIPTION: The course aims to provide an in-depth coverage of the political economy of globalization and development with a particular focus on emerging powers and their changing role in the global political economy. The first part of the part of the course will cover broader debates on Northern and Southern varieties of capitalism, states and markets in development, the relationship between democracy and development. The second part of the course will focus explicitly on individual BRICS and near BRICS. Particular attention will be paid to the respective developmental strategies as well as similarities and contrasts in the regional and global roles of China, India, Brazil and Russia. Finally, the course will consider the role of emerging powers in the context of global governance. The role of emerging powers is investigated in the context of the global economic crisis and their influence on the future course of development in the " global South " .
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A controversial issue in the longstanding debate on the developmental state concerns the relationship and the possible compatibility of rapid economic and industrial transformation with a democratic form of governance. Many scholars... more
A controversial issue in the longstanding debate on the developmental state concerns the relationship and the possible compatibility of rapid economic and industrial transformation with a democratic form of governance. Many scholars contributing to the debate were more concerned about how highly centralised and cohesive states with significant 'embedded autonomy' were able to facilitate rapid industrialisation based on highly selective and strategic industrial policy tools. The central focus was to explain how a limited subset of East Asian developmental states were able to outperform other late-industrialising countries in Latin America, the Middle East and elsewhere. Japan was the prototype case of successful industrial transformation in the early part of the postwar period. Its experience was subsequently duplicated by the phenomenal rise of South Korea and Taiwan. Whilst the Japanese miracle occurred in a democratic environment, the successful state-driven export-oriented growth of South Korea and Taiwan were accomplished in highly authoritarian settings. It was only at a later stage in their development experience that these two countries were able to make a successful transition to democratic forms of governance during the second half of the 1980s. In the current context, the rise of China and the growing challenge offered by the appeal of the 'Beijing Consensus' together raise deep questions concerning the relationship between successful industrial transformation under what we might term 'strategic capitalism' and the achievement of democracy. Although in its specific form the Chinese brand of capitalism differs from the experience of the original trio of East Asian developmental states, it still sits very much in the tradition of developmental states in respect of the active role of the state promoting industrial transformation. Perhaps it would be more appropriate to describe China as a 'post-developmental state' given its greater openness to foreign direct investment right from the very beginning of its opening-up to the global economy in the early 1980s. It's important to emphasise, however, that Chinese openness to transnational investment was always based on an active bargaining process focused on aligning the terms of entry with its broader strategic priorities. This is fundamentally different from a neoliberal, open-door approach to foreign investment. As everyone knows, China's state-driven industrial transformation over the course of the past few decades has been quite remarkable and has undoubtedly given a predominantly benign
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Government and Opposition, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2017.16 This article highlights the weakening of the EU's transformative capacity in the broader European periphery in a rapidly shifting global order, with reference to Hungary... more
Government and Opposition, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2017.16 This article highlights the weakening of the EU's transformative capacity in the broader European periphery in a rapidly shifting global order, with reference to Hungary and Turkey. Although Hungary is an 'insider' and Turkey a relative 'outsider', their recent experiences display strikingly similar patterns, raising important concerns about the EU's leverage. Under the influence of strong nationalist-populist leaders backed by powerful majorities, both countries have been moving in an increasingly illiberal direction, away from well-established EU norms. The article proposes an analytical framework based on a combination of push and pull factors that are driven from changing global political economy dynamics, which explains the EU's declining appeal in its periphery, not only in reference to the internal dynamics of European integration and its multiple crises, but also the appeal of illiberal versions of strategic capitalism employed by rising powers, which serve as reference point for the elites of several states in diverse geographical settings. In his speech at the dawn of the third millennium, Romano Prodi (2000), then president of the European Commission, claimed that the '[EU has] forged a model of development and continental integration based on the principles of democracy, freedom and solidarity, and it is a model that works'. Indeed, the EU entered the twenty-first century with remarkable achievements. The launch of the euro, the big-bang enlargement towards
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The crisis of liberal democracy is closely associated with major global shifts, which have been accelerated by the global financial crisis of 2008, with its dislocating effects in the established democracies of the global centre. Relative... more
The crisis of liberal democracy is closely associated with major global shifts, which have been accelerated by the global financial crisis of 2008, with its dislocating effects in the established democracies of the global centre. Relative stagnation and rising problems of inequality and unemployment coupled with additional shocks in the form of mass migration and terrorist attacks have generated fertile grounds for the rise of right-wing radical populist sentiments, which have been turned into electoral advantage by charismatic leaders. The crisis of liberal democracy is also a global phenomenon in the sense that liberal democracy has been severely challenged by the rise of strategic models of capitalism, notably its authoritarian version represented by the growing power and influence of the China-Russia coalition. Indeed, the success of the latter has served as a kind of reference for many authoritarian or hybrid regimes in a changing global context, at a time when the key Western powers appear to be losing their previous economic and moral appeal.
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Liberal democracy is under challenge on a global scale. The global financial crisis has accelerated and aggravated the crisis of liberal democracy in the global North. The paper examines the prospects for liberal democracy in the global... more
Liberal democracy is under challenge on a global scale. The global financial crisis has accelerated and aggravated the crisis of liberal democracy in the global North. The paper examines the prospects for liberal democracy in the global South and argues that the prospects are mixed. The rise of China and the durability of its highly successful model of authoritarian capitalism poses a central challenge in a rapidly shifting global order where democratic capitalism in the North no longer generates the same level of enthusiasm as in the past. The paper examines alternative and competing models of capitalism and democracy in the global South and evaluates the credentials of democratic BRICS and near-BRICS as serious pro-democracy actors. Whilst the trend is towards less social inclusion in the North and greater social inclusion in the South, persistently high rates of inequality pose severe problems for the future of liberal democracy both in the global North and the global South.
Key words: Globalization, Democracy, BRICS, emerging powers, middle powers
Key words: Globalization, Democracy, BRICS, emerging powers, middle powers
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Course Syllabus for Global Political Economy Fall 2000
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Syllabus of my undergraduate course on the Global Political Economy, Fall 2019
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Syllabus of my undergraduate course on Comparative Political Economy of Emerging Powers
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This course offers a political economy account of the rise of emerging powers. Topics to be covered include contemporary debates on the political economy of late industrialization, the relationship between state and the economy, the... more
This course offers a political economy account of the rise of emerging powers. Topics to be covered include contemporary debates on the political economy of late industrialization, the relationship between state and the economy, the importance of institutions in the development process and the rise of BRICS and near-BRICs in the changing global order. Theoretical themes are applied to the case studies of
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DESCRIPTION This course offers an advanced introduction to the dynamics and some enduring problems of the Turkish economy from a political economy perspective. It is divided into 14 topics that broadly group into three parts: Part I... more
DESCRIPTION This course offers an advanced introduction to the dynamics and some enduring problems of the Turkish economy from a political economy perspective. It is divided into 14 topics that broadly group into three parts: Part I begins with an historical overview of the major policy phases of the Turkish economy from the early 20 th century onward. We then focus on Turkey's crisis-ridden process of market transition over the past three decades by exploring the country's relations with international organizations such as the IMF, its dynamic integration with the global economy, and efforts toward substantive restructuring since the devastating crisis of 2000-2001. Part II discusses Turkey's international economic relations with particular emphasis on its troubled path toward EU integration, its evolving relations with the BRICS, as well as the economic and political role it plays in the Middle East and Africa. Part III is devoted to social implications of Turkey's economic development. Here we focus on the pressing problems of poverty and inequality as well as on Turkey's changing welfare state. TEXTS There is no textbook for the course. All required readings for the course (which include journal articles and book chapters) are listed in this syllabus. All readings are available to students at the Online E-Reserve Collection of the Suna Kıraç Library. Library web site à Catalog à Reserves by course à Course code: INTL 410. Some journal articles are also accessible online through the library website.