- 133 N El Rancho Road
Santa Fe, NM 87501 - 5052386072
Nancy K . Hayden
University of Maryland, School of Public Policy, Department Member
- Sandia National Laboratories, Systems Research, Analysis, & Applications, Department MemberUniversity of New Mexico, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Faculty Memberadd
- Policy Analysis/Policy Studies, International Security, Complexity, Conflict, Resiliency, Complex Adaptive Systems, and 21 morePolitical Violence and Terrorism, Peace and Conflict Studies, Master of Public Policy, Innovation statistics, Risk Management, Terrorism, Complexity Theory, Complex Systems Science, Resilience, Peacebuilding, Management of Innovation, National Security, System Dynamics Modeling, Counter terrorism, Complex Networks, WMD proliferation, Wicked Problems, International Relations, Gender Studies, Somalia, and Peacekeepingedit
- Dr. Nancy K. Hayden is an expert consultant and researcher on the science of complex systems, and its applications to... moreDr. Nancy K. Hayden is an expert consultant and researcher on the science of complex systems, and its applications to the nexus of international security, science and technology, and governance. She has led multi-disciplinary teams for the US government to address the nexus of security and technology policy issues that include the role of AI and autonomy, the future of space security, nuclear energy safety and waste management, nuclear nonproliferation, counter-WMD, counter-terrorism, and cyber warfare. Dr. Hayden has applied her research expertise in these areas to better understanding of policy interventions (security, humanitarian, development, technical) in civil conflict and peace engineering. In addition to her service as advisor to the USG, Dr. Hayden has also consulted with Governments of Canada, UK, and Sweden, and has contributed to the successful completion of bilateral efforts to secure dangerous nuclear materials in Russia and in China. She is one of a few people in the US to have visited the Chinese nuclear weapons research facilities in Mianyang, China.
Dr. Hayden is retired from a long career (40 years) at Sandia National Laboratories. She earned a PhD in International Security and Economics at the Maryland School of Public Policy, where she remains a Research Fellow with the Center for International and Strategic Studies at the University of Maryland. Driven by a belief in, and commitment to, advancing the power of women to change the world, her academic research interests involve innovations in international interventions and local governance to transform conflict-ridden societies. She has conducted field research in the US, Europe, and Africa, interviewing hundreds of government officials, military personnel, civil society and non-governmental organizations, and humanitarian relief organizations. She is now pioneering applications of this research to the new field of peace engineering.
Dr. Hayden is a native of Dallas, Texas where she attended Ursuline High School. She is now a permanent resident of Santa Fe, New Mexico, where she is active in the local community. She enjoys fly-fishing, hiking and skiing, gourmet dining, the flourishing arts scene, visits from family, and occasional exchanges with Nobel Laureates at the Santa Fe Institute. She holds a BS in Math from the University of Texas at Austin, an MS in Mechanical Engineering from the University of California at Berkeley and is a graduate of the executive program on nonviolent conflict at the Fletcher School of International Affairs at Tufts University. In addition to her community activities, Dr. Hayden is a member of Women in International Security and serves on the governing board of the Systems Dynamics Society.edit - Dissertation Chairman: Dr. John Steinbruner (deceased); Dr. Robert Orredit
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Severe space storms pose significant risk to critical infrastructures. They are typically classified as high consequence, low probability events, yet the record over the last several hundred years indicates we may be overdue for a... more
Severe space storms pose significant risk to critical infrastructures. They are typically classified as high consequence, low probability events, yet the record over the last several hundred years indicates we may be overdue for a significant event. How does the paradigm of complex adaptive systems and wicked problems help policy makers and industry address cost/benefit and risk management responsibilities to multiple stakeholders to prepare for cross-border events in the near future?
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Most national policy decisions are complex with a variety of stakeholders, disparate interests and the potential for unintended consequences. While a number of analytical tools exist to help decision makers sort through the mountains of... more
Most national policy decisions are complex with a variety of stakeholders, disparate interests and the potential for unintended consequences. While a number of analytical tools exist to help decision makers sort through the mountains of data and myriad of options, decision support teams are increasingly turning to complexity science for improved analysis and better insight into the potential impact of policy decisions. While complexity science has great potential, it has only proven useful in limited cases and when properly applied. In advance of more widespread use, a national-level effort to refine complexity science and more rigorously establish its technical underpinnings is recommended.
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Determining the location of the contaminant source is important for improving remediation and site management decisions at many contaminated groundwater sites. At large sites, numerical flow and transport models have been developed that... more
Determining the location of the contaminant source is important for improving remediation and site management decisions at many contaminated groundwater sites. At large sites, numerical flow and transport models have been developed that use historical measurement data for calibration. A well-calibrated model is useful for predicting plume migration and other management purposes; however, it is difficult to back out the source with these forward flow and transport models. We present a novel technique utilizing Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to backtrack source location and earlier plume concentrations from recent plume information. For proof-of-concept, two tracer tests (a non-point-source and a point-source) were performed in a large-scale (10’×14’×6’) groundwater physical model. The physics-based flow and transport model (MODFLOW 2000 and MT3DMS) was calibrated using the data from the non-point-source tracer test and validated using the point source tracer test data. ANNs (e.g. ...
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ABSTRACT
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An overarching principle accepted by space-faring nations and industry alike is to maintain freedom of operations in a safe and secure environment, commensurate with national and commercial interests. Deterrence concepts and escalation... more
An overarching principle accepted by space-faring nations and industry alike is to maintain freedom of operations in a safe and secure environment, commensurate with national and commercial interests. Deterrence concepts and escalation control play key roles in realizing this principle in the increasingly congested, competitive and contested space environment. AI and autonomous machine learning are being pursued as critical enablers in commercial and military programs for space traffic management, routine space operations, space domain awareness (SDA), and space control. AI systems hold the potential to strengthen deterrence by improving both the speed and ability to assess threats and inform decision makers in times of crisis. However, issues that have arisen in terrestrial AI applications will be also present in these applications, with implications for space deterrence and escalation scenarios. Key among these are performance, explainability, and vulnerability. To date there are ...
Peacekeepmg and humamtanan aid interventions in Somalia have attempted to bring peace and stability to the country and region for more than twenty-five years. Different dynamics characterize four distinct phases of these interventions,... more
Peacekeepmg and humamtanan aid interventions in Somalia have attempted to bring peace and stability to the country and region for more than twenty-five years. Different dynamics characterize four distinct phases of these interventions, determining the likelihood of conflict transformation. These dynamics display archetypal system behaviors representative of other persistent conflicts in Africa during the same time period. Field interviews combined with comparative statistics informed system models of conflict dynamics in Africa and Somalia. The models explored the relative impact of intervention feedback loops and key levers on potential for conflict transformation. It is shown that sustainable peace depends less on the appropriate sequencing of aid than on transparency, trust, and cooperation between various intervention actors and stakeholders to enable accountability at the local level. Technical innovations are needed to build transparency and trust between intervention stakeholders without increasing security risks. A potential solution is proposed that incorporates predictive analytics into peer-to-peer networks for monitoring interventions.
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The concept of terrorist organizations as complex adaptive systems (CAS) has generated an abundance of models focused on understanding the inherent structural strengths and weaknesses of the organizations with the ultimate goal of... more
The concept of terrorist organizations as complex adaptive systems (CAS) has generated an abundance of models focused on understanding the inherent structural strengths and weaknesses of the organizations with the ultimate goal of disruption and defeat. However, in-depth theoretical analyses combining first-principles of CAS to understanding terrorist organizations as dynamical systems remain few. Specifically, while most experts acknowledge the key role that innovation and learning play in providing terrorist organizations with the capacity to adapt, there is a paucity of systematic treatment of the topic of what influences innovation and learning – and the difference between the two - in these covert organizations. This paper reviews the organizing principles, behavior characteristics, and mechanisms of learning and innovation in complex adaptive systems; discusses how other authors have applied these principles to understanding terrorist organizations; and introduces the constrai...
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Even as the threat of international conflict between great powers re-emerges, violent civil conflict remains one of the greatest threats to human security and global stability. Persistent conflicts – those that have been active for twenty... more
Even as the threat of international conflict between great powers re-emerges, violent civil conflict remains one of the greatest threats to human security and global stability. Persistent conflicts – those that have been active for twenty years or more – resulted in 65 million forcibly displaced persons worldwide at the end of 2017. This record high is an increase of 20 percent from the previous year. In Africa alone, more than 35 such conflicts continue to pose the utmost challenge for conflict resolution despite investments of over a trillion dollars in peacebuilding and foreign aid by the international community. The spread of extremist threats through conflicts across the Middle East and Africa—e.g., Syria, Iraq, Sudan, Yemen, Somalia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo–demonstrate that ignoring these conflicts is not an option. Creating the right balance and coordination among security assistance, military peace operations, humanitarian relief aid, and longterm peacebuilding ...
Research Interests: Sociology, Peace and Conflict Studies, International Security, Political Science, Africa, and 15 moreSystems Science, Security Studies, System Dynamics Modeling, System Dynamics, Peacekeeping, Foreign Aid, Peace Studies, Ethnic Conflict and Civil War, Peacebuilding, Resiliency, Effectiveness of Foreign Aid in Sub Saharan Africa, Humanitarian Aid, Civil Conflict, Humanitarian Aid and Conflict, and Public Policy
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Global Nuclear Materials Management (GNMM) is aconcept that envisions a dynamic and transparent framework to assure that all nuclear materials in the worldwhether in civilian or military programs-are being used legitimately, safely, and... more
Global Nuclear Materials Management (GNMM) is aconcept that envisions a dynamic and transparent framework to assure that all nuclear materials in the worldwhether in civilian or military programs-are being used legitimately, safely, and securel $. The concept of such ...
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This brief talk sets the context for understanding behavior sciences to inform policy decision making in complex social systems. By exploring what understanding means epistemologically, one can frame how research questions in the... more
This brief talk sets the context for understanding behavior sciences to inform policy decision making in complex social systems. By exploring what understanding means epistemologically, one can frame how research questions in the behavioral sciences should be framed and how the ensuing research should be conducted, depending on the ontological construct of the decision makers who will use the information.
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Abstract—Peacekeeping and humanitarian aid interventions in Somalia have attempted to bring peace and stability to the country and region for more than twenty-five years. Different dynamics characterize four distinct phases of these... more
Abstract—Peacekeeping and humanitarian aid
interventions in Somalia have attempted to bring peace and
stability to the country and region for more than twenty-five
years. Different dynamics characterize four distinct phases
of these interventions, determining the likelihood of conflict
transformation. These dynamics display archetypal system
behaviors representative of other persistent conflicts in
Africa during the same time period. Field interviews
combined with comparative statistics informed system
models of conflict dynamics in Africa and Somalia. The
models explored the relative impact of intervention
feedback loops and key levers on potential for conflict
transformation. It is shown that sustainable peace depends
less on the appropriate sequencing of aid than on
transparency, trust, and cooperation between various
intervention actors and stakeholders to enable
accountability at the local level. Technical innovations are
needed to build transparency and trust between intervention
stakeholders without increasing security risks. A potential
solution is proposed that incorporates predictive analytics
into peer-to-peer networks for monitoring interventions.
interventions in Somalia have attempted to bring peace and
stability to the country and region for more than twenty-five
years. Different dynamics characterize four distinct phases
of these interventions, determining the likelihood of conflict
transformation. These dynamics display archetypal system
behaviors representative of other persistent conflicts in
Africa during the same time period. Field interviews
combined with comparative statistics informed system
models of conflict dynamics in Africa and Somalia. The
models explored the relative impact of intervention
feedback loops and key levers on potential for conflict
transformation. It is shown that sustainable peace depends
less on the appropriate sequencing of aid than on
transparency, trust, and cooperation between various
intervention actors and stakeholders to enable
accountability at the local level. Technical innovations are
needed to build transparency and trust between intervention
stakeholders without increasing security risks. A potential
solution is proposed that incorporates predictive analytics
into peer-to-peer networks for monitoring interventions.
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Sandia has the opportunity and expertise to work in partnership with academia and key institutions to shape the discipline of peace engineering and its application to complex problems facing the nation and world in a way that supports the... more
Sandia has the opportunity and expertise to work in partnership with academia and key institutions to shape the discipline of peace engineering and its application to complex problems facing the nation and world in a way that supports the Labs' strategic priorities and purpose to ensure global peace through advanced technology development. What is Peace Engineering? Peace Engineering is the application of science and engineering principles and technology to promote and support peace [1]. This emerging discipline brings together the systems engineering community in academia, industry, and government with practitioners and researchers in the peacemaking, peacebuilding, peacekeeping, and security communities to remove conflict drivers and barriers to peace, and to create environments in which human potential can flourish. Although still a nascent field, private sector investments in peace engineering are driving innovations happening rapidly all over the world. The goals of Peace Engineering are to prevent, mitigate, and recover from violence while developing sustainable systems for human security and well-being. These goals support national and global security strategies, as well as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)[4], and the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) Grand Challenges[5]. Sandia has a role to play in each of these goals. Moreover, the required elements of these sustainable systems are interrelated , as shown in the framework developed by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) and the US Army Peacekeeping and Stabilization Operations Institute (PKSOI) to guide stabilization and reconstruction efforts (Figure 1). Sandia and the Peace Engineering community bring much needed systems engineering skills for managing these interrelationships .
Recurring civil conflicts are the dominant form of violent armed conflict in the world today. The international community has responded with increased levels of peacekeeping and aid interventions. However, the research and policy... more
Recurring civil conflicts are the dominant form of violent armed conflict in the world today. The international community has responded with increased levels of peacekeeping and aid interventions. However, the research and policy communities lack robust understanding of causal mechanisms for how these interventions affect conflict recurrence and persistence. Empirically derived reference behaviors for persistent conflict suggest that feedback loops between peacekeeping, aid, and development interventions that have been largely ignored by the research community may, in fact, dominate system behaviors that perpetuate conflict. A simple model structure is presented that integrates theories of conflict and peace building with cross-country statistical analysis of structural conflict risk factors and with insights from field interviews with military peacekeeping troops and humanitarian aid workers in the Somali conflict. In the model, balancing loops involving peace operations and belligerents interact with reinforcing loops involving humanitarian interventions and local capacity to generate distinct archetypes of conflict persistence. While suggestive of causal mechanisms, this analysis demonstrates the need for finer-grained (e.g., micro-level) data over longer time periods to fully understand how resources inserted into conflict by external actors exacerbate security and conflict risk and when they contribute to peace and stability.
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Risk factors for onset of civil war are reviewed, civil conflict prevention measures are introduced, and international intervention frameworks for peace operations are summarized for Executive Leadership course for military officers.
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Armed intrastate civil conflicts present persistent threats to security interests that raise difficult policy questions of when and how interventions achieve their objectives -- considering normative, material, economic, and political... more
Armed intrastate civil conflicts present persistent threats to security interests that raise difficult policy questions of when and how interventions achieve their objectives -- considering normative, material, economic, and political factors. There are two disturbing trends regarding current civil conflicts: (1) in spite of a substantial decline in the global number of armed civil conflicts over the past two decades and increasing levels of external intervention, today’s civil conflicts last longer than in the past - resulting in higher deficits in human security; and (2) today’s civil conflicts are increasingly likely to re-occur after wars stop - with around half of civil wars being due to post-conflict relapses. These trends underscore the critical importance of resolving the question, What types of third-party interventions in armed civil conflict are most likely to lead to stable outcomes that ultimately improve human security, and what are the conditions, commitments, and sequencing necessary for those outcomes to be realized? I describe how my dissertation research explores questions and hypotheses relating metrics of socio-ecological resiliency as intervening variables to the impacts of complex intervention actions on conflict dynamics and outcomes, where conflict dynamics are evaluated in terms of levels of violence and human security in time, and conflict outcomes are evaluated as the quasi-equilibrium state achieved by the system.
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Terrorism can be viewed as an emergent phenomenon of complex, dynamically interacting social, technological, and institutional systems. Considering terrorism through this lens has significant implications for social and behavioral... more
Terrorism can be viewed as an emergent phenomenon of complex,
dynamically interacting social, technological, and institutional systems. Considering terrorism through this lens has significant implications for social and behavioral research and analysis, made possible by advances in understanding complex systems over the past twenty years. First, the universal principles that govern the behavior of complex systems provide a much needed, common framework that transcends traditional academic boundaries and allows synergistic consideration of knowledge from diverse conceptual domains, multiple cultural perspectives, and a wide range of behavioral scales. Second, technical advances in analytic methods derived from complexity science – such as multi-scale dynamic network analysis, evolutionary computing algorithms, agent based modeling and simulation, and multi-dimensional pattern analysis – provide means for data analysis, and hypothesis generation and testing that have been computationally intractable in the past. Third, new paradigms for sense-making in situations of high complexity and ambiguity provide intelligence and policy analysts means to explicitly consider complex social and behavioral
phenomena such as emergence, innovation, adaptation, self-organization, and surprise in developing counter terrorism strategies. This paper provides an analytic framework based on the principles of complex systems analysis; describes how key analytic methods fit into that framework; thereby providing new paradigms for sensemaking.
dynamically interacting social, technological, and institutional systems. Considering terrorism through this lens has significant implications for social and behavioral research and analysis, made possible by advances in understanding complex systems over the past twenty years. First, the universal principles that govern the behavior of complex systems provide a much needed, common framework that transcends traditional academic boundaries and allows synergistic consideration of knowledge from diverse conceptual domains, multiple cultural perspectives, and a wide range of behavioral scales. Second, technical advances in analytic methods derived from complexity science – such as multi-scale dynamic network analysis, evolutionary computing algorithms, agent based modeling and simulation, and multi-dimensional pattern analysis – provide means for data analysis, and hypothesis generation and testing that have been computationally intractable in the past. Third, new paradigms for sense-making in situations of high complexity and ambiguity provide intelligence and policy analysts means to explicitly consider complex social and behavioral
phenomena such as emergence, innovation, adaptation, self-organization, and surprise in developing counter terrorism strategies. This paper provides an analytic framework based on the principles of complex systems analysis; describes how key analytic methods fit into that framework; thereby providing new paradigms for sensemaking.
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Concerns about non-state actor acquisition and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) against noncombatants have existed since the turn of the century, if not before. However, the level of concern has risen significantly since 9/11 for... more
Concerns about non-state actor acquisition and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) against noncombatants have existed since the turn of the century, if not before. However, the level of concern has risen significantly since 9/11 for a number of reasons that include: the perception that a threshold was crossed on 9/11, concerns about more widespread availability of technology, greater attention given to the potential threat in the media, the growing and persistent military presence of the US in global affairs, increasing exploitation of the internet by non-state actors to create networks
and disseminate information, and an increased awareness of vulnerability among the Western public. However, it is not clear that this heightened concern has been matched by scholarly research to better understand and characterize the real nature of the threat, the casual factors that are necessary to explain it, and the dynamic relationship between the evolution of threat and responses to it. The purpose of this study was to explore and characterize the research base that exists for examining the motivations of non-state actors to acquire and/or use WMD, and what additional knowledge domains should be considered that have not yet been brought to bear on the
problem.
and disseminate information, and an increased awareness of vulnerability among the Western public. However, it is not clear that this heightened concern has been matched by scholarly research to better understand and characterize the real nature of the threat, the casual factors that are necessary to explain it, and the dynamic relationship between the evolution of threat and responses to it. The purpose of this study was to explore and characterize the research base that exists for examining the motivations of non-state actors to acquire and/or use WMD, and what additional knowledge domains should be considered that have not yet been brought to bear on the
problem.
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The Systems Prioritization Method (SPM) is a decision-aiding tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Department of Energy Carlsbad Area Office (DOE/CAO). This tool provides an analytical basis for programmatic... more
The Systems Prioritization Method (SPM) is a decision-aiding tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Department of Energy Carlsbad Area Office (DOE/CAO). This tool provides an analytical basis for programmatic decision making for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). SPM integrates decision-analysis techniques, performance and risk-assessment tools, and advanced information technology. Potential outcomes of proposed activities and combinations of activities (activity sets) are used to calculate a probability of demonstrating compliance (PDC) with selected regulations. This is the third and final volume in the series, The Second Iteration of the Systems Prioritization Method: A Systems Prioritization and Decision-Tool for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (SPM-2). Volume I of this series provides a synopsis of the method and preliminary observations on the SPM-2 results. Volume II describes the technical input and model implementation for SPM-2. SPM-2 analyzed combinations of scientific investigations, engineered alternatives (EAs), and waste acceptance criteria (WAC) for supporting the final compliance application for WIPP. The results of SPM-2 contributed to the basis for DOE/CAO decisions made in March and May 1995 to focus the WIPP Project on a compliance strategy based on scientific investigations with regulatory assurance provided by EAs. This volume describes the analysis of the SPM-2 results to determine recommended paths for meeting the following DOE/CAO objectives: maximize PDC, minimize duration, and minimize cost. DOE/CAO made a final decision in May 1995 based on final programmatic recommendations on the scope and content of the scientific investigations. The scientific investigation program developed subsequent to the completion of SPM-2 has begun to yield results that will contribute to an evaluation of compliance of the WIPP disposal system with the selected long-term regulations.
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Extended Abstract Even as the threat of international conflict between great powers re-emerges, violent civil conflict remains one of the greatest threats to human security and global stability. Persistent conflicts-those that have been... more
Extended Abstract Even as the threat of international conflict between great powers re-emerges, violent civil conflict remains one of the greatest threats to human security and global stability. Persistent conflicts-those that have been active for twenty years or more with repeated cycles of violence and recurring civil wars-are the dominant form of armed conflict in the world today and resulted in 65 million forcibly displaced persons worldwide at the end of 2017. This record high is an increase of 20 percent from the previous year. In Africa alone, more than 35 such conflicts continue to pose the utmost challenge for conflict resolution despite investments of over a trillion dollars in peacebuilding and foreign aid by the international community, and the engagement of over 100,000 uniformed personnel in peace operations. These conflicts raise difficult policy questions of when and how third-party interventions achieve their objectives-considering normative, material, economic, and political factors. Creating the right balance and coordination among security assistance, military peace operations, humanitarian relief aid, and long-term peacebuilding remains an elusive goal. Are these intervention failures due to insufficient theorizing, to unsuitable policies and practices, to the fundamental intractability of the conflicts, or some combination of all? Academics, practitioners and policy makers increasingly recognize that lifting social and political systems out of conflict traps requires a systems approach. Such an approach must consider not only the nature and context of the conflict, but also the scope, timing, and dynamic interactions among different modes and types of interventions. This research combines comparative statistical analysis of dynamic reference behaviors of 35 persistent conflicts in Africa, with qualitative causal loop modeling based on field research on the Somalia conflict to (1) examine the relationship between conflict persistence and factors associated with conflict contexts, peacekeeping and aid interventions, and (2) identify the underlying theory, principles and practices for those conflict interventions most likely to result in conflict transformation that increases human security, and those most likely to sustain conflict. Specific findings are that: (1) Violence in persistent armed conflicts in Africa over the past 25 years display one of four types of archetypal reference behaviors: Exponential Growth; Sustained Oscillations; repeated episodes of Overshoot-and-Collapse; or Damped Impulse (an intense but limited stimulus followed by gradual decline). The Somalia case study suggests that these behaviors scale from local to state level. Once established, the behavioral dynamics become self-reinforcing and dictate the likelihood of conflict persistence or resolution.
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IIn the National Defense Strategy of 2018, Secretary of Defense James Mattis encouraged adoption of new practices to achieve greater performance and affordability to meet current and future challenges. The recently signed Digital... more
IIn the National Defense Strategy of 2018, Secretary of Defense James Mattis encouraged adoption of new
practices to achieve greater performance and affordability to meet current and future challenges. The recently
signed Digital Engineering Strategy outlines several goals to help achieve the necessary improvements. In
particular, Goal 3 is to “incorporate technological innovation to improve the engineering practice”. It proposes advancements in human-machine interactions, realizing an end-to-end digital enterprise, advances in artificial intelligence and cognitive technologies.
This strategy follows The International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) efforts to accelerate the
transformation of Systems Engineering to a model based discipline. In particular, INCOSE’s Augmented
Intelligence in Systems Engineering (AuI SE) Challenge Team is directed to further the understanding of how
computational approaches, such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data science, can collaborate with
human systems engineers to measurably improve the system engineering effort. The activity is leveraging SE and
AI best practices to develop a framework and technical approach to enhance human capabilities in systems
engineering.
The poster outlines findings from the INCOSE AuI SE activity and characterize a “team play”
approach – where engineers and algorithms can coordinate to develop transparent, traceable, and
understandable system designs that are better than either human or algorithmic approaches could develop alone.
Augmented Intelligence requires deliberate consideration to the characteristics of AI systems as integral parts of
the engineering system. The team has identified several characteristics critical to support “team play”
development: 1) understanding the conceptual model for learning and application of learned information in a
mixed environment, 2) roles and responsibilities for models and humans in a unified human-model interaction
team, and 3) factors influencing trust in model-centric decision making.
This poster visually describes how well-structured data in the form of system models enables the use of artificial
intelligence, algorithmic capabilities, expert systems, and human-computer interactions as essential elements in
improving the performance of systems engineering and its essential role in improving our National Security.
Expected outcomes include improving decision making, speeding capability development and overall
improvement in the ability to innovate. The INCOSE AuI SE team includes contributors from commercial, FFRDC,
and academic participants.
practices to achieve greater performance and affordability to meet current and future challenges. The recently
signed Digital Engineering Strategy outlines several goals to help achieve the necessary improvements. In
particular, Goal 3 is to “incorporate technological innovation to improve the engineering practice”. It proposes advancements in human-machine interactions, realizing an end-to-end digital enterprise, advances in artificial intelligence and cognitive technologies.
This strategy follows The International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) efforts to accelerate the
transformation of Systems Engineering to a model based discipline. In particular, INCOSE’s Augmented
Intelligence in Systems Engineering (AuI SE) Challenge Team is directed to further the understanding of how
computational approaches, such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data science, can collaborate with
human systems engineers to measurably improve the system engineering effort. The activity is leveraging SE and
AI best practices to develop a framework and technical approach to enhance human capabilities in systems
engineering.
The poster outlines findings from the INCOSE AuI SE activity and characterize a “team play”
approach – where engineers and algorithms can coordinate to develop transparent, traceable, and
understandable system designs that are better than either human or algorithmic approaches could develop alone.
Augmented Intelligence requires deliberate consideration to the characteristics of AI systems as integral parts of
the engineering system. The team has identified several characteristics critical to support “team play”
development: 1) understanding the conceptual model for learning and application of learned information in a
mixed environment, 2) roles and responsibilities for models and humans in a unified human-model interaction
team, and 3) factors influencing trust in model-centric decision making.
This poster visually describes how well-structured data in the form of system models enables the use of artificial
intelligence, algorithmic capabilities, expert systems, and human-computer interactions as essential elements in
improving the performance of systems engineering and its essential role in improving our National Security.
Expected outcomes include improving decision making, speeding capability development and overall
improvement in the ability to innovate. The INCOSE AuI SE team includes contributors from commercial, FFRDC,
and academic participants.
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The USG and others in the international community have adopted resiliency frameworks for designing and evaluating conflict intervention policies in both the security and development/aid sectors. These frameworks acknowledge the need for... more
The USG and others in the international community have adopted resiliency frameworks for designing and evaluating conflict intervention policies in both the security and development/aid sectors. These frameworks acknowledge the need for multi-level systems analysis that bridge security and development/aid domains. In practice, however, they tend to focus on either individual agent agency or system structure within single domains, and lack understanding of integrative causal mechanisms and dynamic feedback processes. In this paper, I demonstrate a theoretically grounded approach for combining individual agency and system-level dynamics at the nexus of security-development policy domains for evaluating impact of interventions on resiliency of various actors in instances of recurring armed civil conflict. Building on the work of (Choucri et al., 2007) to model state stability, I show how integrating individual agency with system dynamics can operationalize the USG resiliency framework for policy analysis of third party interventions through security and aid vectors. In so doing, sensitivity of combatant as well as societal resiliency to different vectors for implementing intervention strategies can be examined. The modeling framework is demonstrated for case studies of recurring conflicts.
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The concept of terrorist organizations as complex adaptive systems (CAS) has generated an abundance of models focused on understanding the inherent structural strengths and weaknesses of the organizations with the ultimate goal of... more
The concept of terrorist organizations as complex adaptive systems (CAS) has generated an abundance of models focused on understanding the inherent structural strengths and weaknesses of the organizations with the ultimate goal of disruption and defeat. However, in-depth theoretical analyses combining first-principles of CAS to understanding terrorist organizations as dynamical systems remain few. Specifically, while most experts acknowledge the key role that innovation and learning play in providing terrorist organizations with the capacity to adapt, there is a paucity of systematic treatment of the topic of what influences innovation and learning – and the difference between the two - in these covert organizations. This paper reviews the organizing principles, behavior characteristics, and mechanisms of learning and innovation in complex adaptive systems; discusses how other authors have applied these principles to understanding terrorist organizations; and introduces the constraints imposed by the need for secrecy in these covert organizations. In doing so, I provide a theoretically grounded framework that combines understanding of innovation and learning within covert organizations from a system dynamics perspective with first principles of complex adaptive systems to predict under what conditions innovation is likely to occur within terrorist organizations. Historical evidence of terrorist organizations and their activities over more than thirty years supports the qualitative predictions of the framework.
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Research Interests:
And if the role of the nation-state does diminPeople and activities have historically coexisted within a single place. As such, territory has been a natural anchoring point for governance. That is the rules of the game are dictated by... more
And if the role of the nation-state does diminPeople and activities have historically coexisted within a single place.
As such, territory has been a natural anchoring point for governance. That is the rules of the game are dictated by whoever controls the territory in which the people and activities exist.
For the last 400 years the nation-state (which is referred to in this talk as ”the state”) has served as the corner stone of a global governance system. In effect, it has held a near monopolistic position in the international arena as it generally has maintained--through sovereignty--final say over how global events are allowed to impact its territory.
The nation-state’s central role stems from its historical efficiency and effectiveness at governing large territorial entities and the people and activities within them.
However, technological advances are contributing to a rapid and truly global interconnectedness, where through virtual means people in disparate parts of the world can interact while physically distant from each other. Moreover, technologies like 3D printing increasingly mean that people and goods don’t have to move. In other words, communication, services, and supply chains are becoming increasingly virtual.
As a result, we are witnessing geography becoming a less important factor for people and activities (provided they are online/connected). Moreover, people’s access to information and services is vastly increasing.
What are the implications of these changes to the role of the nation-state, especially given the territorial assumptions that underpin its necessity and prominence in a global system? Does increased connectivity fundamentally change governance relationships on a global basis? Does the role of the nation-state diminish as it seeks to adapt to these global forces? Does the global power balance tip away from nation-states to create a more diverse governance environment with competing types of governance providers?
ish in a global context in favor of alternative governance services providers, what does that mean for national security? What is national security in a world with a diminished nation-state role? And what are the implications for national security entities?
As such, territory has been a natural anchoring point for governance. That is the rules of the game are dictated by whoever controls the territory in which the people and activities exist.
For the last 400 years the nation-state (which is referred to in this talk as ”the state”) has served as the corner stone of a global governance system. In effect, it has held a near monopolistic position in the international arena as it generally has maintained--through sovereignty--final say over how global events are allowed to impact its territory.
The nation-state’s central role stems from its historical efficiency and effectiveness at governing large territorial entities and the people and activities within them.
However, technological advances are contributing to a rapid and truly global interconnectedness, where through virtual means people in disparate parts of the world can interact while physically distant from each other. Moreover, technologies like 3D printing increasingly mean that people and goods don’t have to move. In other words, communication, services, and supply chains are becoming increasingly virtual.
As a result, we are witnessing geography becoming a less important factor for people and activities (provided they are online/connected). Moreover, people’s access to information and services is vastly increasing.
What are the implications of these changes to the role of the nation-state, especially given the territorial assumptions that underpin its necessity and prominence in a global system? Does increased connectivity fundamentally change governance relationships on a global basis? Does the role of the nation-state diminish as it seeks to adapt to these global forces? Does the global power balance tip away from nation-states to create a more diverse governance environment with competing types of governance providers?
ish in a global context in favor of alternative governance services providers, what does that mean for national security? What is national security in a world with a diminished nation-state role? And what are the implications for national security entities?
Research Interests:
Since the end of the Cold War, recurring civil conflicts have been the dominant form of violent armed conflict in the world, accounting for 70% of conflicts active between 2000-2013. Duration and intensity of episodes within recurring... more
Since the end of the Cold War, recurring civil conflicts have been the dominant form of violent armed conflict in the world, accounting for 70% of conflicts active between 2000-2013. Duration and intensity of episodes within recurring conflicts in Africa exhibit four behaviors characteristic of archetypal dynamic system structures. The overarching questions asked in this study are whether these patterns are robustly correlated with fundamental concepts of resiliency in dynamic systems that scale from micro-to macro levels; are they consistent with theoretical risk factors and causal mechanisms; and what are the policy implications.
Econometric analysis and dynamic systems modeling of 36 conflicts in Africa between 1989 -2014 are combined with process tracing in a case study of Somalia to evaluate correlations between state characteristics, peace operations and foreign aid on the likelihood of observed conflict patterns, test hypothesized causal mechanisms across scales, and develop policy recommendations for increasing human security while decreasing resiliency of belligerents. Findings are that observed conflict patterns scale from micro to macro levels; are strongly correlated with state characteristics that proxy a mix of cooperative (e.g., gender equality) and coercive (e.g., security forces) conflict-balancing mechanisms; and are weakly correlated with UN and regional peace operations and humanitarian aid. Interactions between peace operations and aid interventions that effect conflict persistence at micro levels are not seen in macro level analysis, due to interdependent, micro-level feedback mechanisms, sequencing, and lagged effects.
This study finds that the dynamic system structures associated with observed conflict patterns contain tipping points between balancing mechanisms at the interface of micro-macro level interactions that are determined as much by factors related to how intervention policies are designed and implemented, as what they are. Policy implications are that reducing risk of conflict persistence requires that peace operations and aid interventions (1) simultaneously increase transparency, promote inclusivity (with emphasis on gender equality), and empower local civilian involvement in accountability measures at the local levels; (2) build bridges between intervention sectors that horizontally and vertically integrate across levels using common metrics; and (3) pave pathways towards conflict transformation mechanisms and justice that scale from the individual, to community, regional, and national levels.
Econometric analysis and dynamic systems modeling of 36 conflicts in Africa between 1989 -2014 are combined with process tracing in a case study of Somalia to evaluate correlations between state characteristics, peace operations and foreign aid on the likelihood of observed conflict patterns, test hypothesized causal mechanisms across scales, and develop policy recommendations for increasing human security while decreasing resiliency of belligerents. Findings are that observed conflict patterns scale from micro to macro levels; are strongly correlated with state characteristics that proxy a mix of cooperative (e.g., gender equality) and coercive (e.g., security forces) conflict-balancing mechanisms; and are weakly correlated with UN and regional peace operations and humanitarian aid. Interactions between peace operations and aid interventions that effect conflict persistence at micro levels are not seen in macro level analysis, due to interdependent, micro-level feedback mechanisms, sequencing, and lagged effects.
This study finds that the dynamic system structures associated with observed conflict patterns contain tipping points between balancing mechanisms at the interface of micro-macro level interactions that are determined as much by factors related to how intervention policies are designed and implemented, as what they are. Policy implications are that reducing risk of conflict persistence requires that peace operations and aid interventions (1) simultaneously increase transparency, promote inclusivity (with emphasis on gender equality), and empower local civilian involvement in accountability measures at the local levels; (2) build bridges between intervention sectors that horizontally and vertically integrate across levels using common metrics; and (3) pave pathways towards conflict transformation mechanisms and justice that scale from the individual, to community, regional, and national levels.
Research Interests: Peace and Conflict Studies, International Security, System Dynamics Modeling, Peacekeeping, Foreign Aid, and 6 morePeacebuilding, Effectiveness of Foreign Aid in Sub Saharan Africa, United Nations Peacekeeping Operations, Foreign aid and development in Africa: What the literature says and what the reality is, Women and Peace making, and African Union International Peacekeeping Operations/ Success and Falures
Dominant processes in civil conflict recurrence may be determined by capacities attributable to socio-ecological resilience, which has been shown in other contexts to generate three possible outcome states in response to exogenous... more
Dominant processes in civil conflict recurrence may be determined by capacities attributable to socio-ecological resilience, which has been shown in other contexts to generate three possible outcome states in response to exogenous disruptions and/or endogenous stressors: vulnerability, adaptability, or transformation. Endogenous conflict dynamics can be expected to interact with exogenous intervention processes to produce one of the three outcomes in the sociological metaphor as collapse of one or more of the contestants (vulnerability or disintegration), indefinitely sustained violence (adaptability of contestants) in quasi-equilibrium state, or consensual resolution (transformation of the conflict) into a stable equilibrium. Resiliency frameworks adopted by the policy community acknowledge the need for multi-level systems analysis that bridge security and development/aid domains. In practice, however, they tend to focus on individual agent agency or system structure within single domains, and lack understanding of integrative causal mechanisms. In this paper, I demonstrate a theoretically grounded approach for combining individual agency and system-level dynamics at the nexus of security-development policy domains for evaluating impact of interventions on resiliency in conflict settings. I show how this approach can be used to extend the current USG framework to consider the impact of third party interventions through military, civilian, and political vectors. The extended framework will be used to assess experiences in Somalia as an apparent instance of indefinitely sustained conflict (adaptability) and the outcomes of the Burundi conflict as a possible instance of transformation. The framework may provide insights into formulating policy interventions for recurring, high priority conflicts, such as Syria, Sudan, and the Central African Republic. In so doing, sensitivity of societal resiliency to different vectors for implementing intervention strategies will be examined, as well as the effect of different definitions of, and metrics for, resiliency in terms of individual agency versus structural functionality.
Research Interests:
Severe space storms pose significant risk to critical infrastructures. They are typically classified as high consequence, low probability events, yet the record over the last several hundred years indicates we may be overdue for a... more
Severe space storms pose significant risk to critical infrastructures. They are typically classified as high consequence, low probability events, yet the record over the last several hundred years indicates we may be overdue for a significant event. How does the paradigm of complex adaptive systems and wicked problems help policy makers and industry address cost/benefit and risk management responsibilities to multiple stakeholders to prepare for cross-border events in the near future?
Research Interests:
My research examines the combined effects of third-party peacekeeping, humanitarian aid, and development interventions on resiliency of different actors in civil conflict, using Somalia as a case study. Understanding the integrated... more
My research examines the combined effects of third-party peacekeeping, humanitarian aid, and development interventions on resiliency of different actors in civil conflict, using Somalia as a case study. Understanding the integrated effects of these interventions over time requires knowledge of what is happening on the ground among stakeholders and primary actors at the local and regional level, how these dynamics impact the broader conflict, and the result on both local and regional interests. Ethiopia is a key regional player with long-standing strategic interests that affect the Somali conflict. These interests involve complex security and economic concerns that include the presence of Ethiopian Somalis in the Somali regional state of Ethiopia and their claims upon the Ethiopian government (supported by extremists in the conflict in Somalia), a large influx of Somali refugees from the conflict in South Central Somalia, and violent cross-border spillover from Somalia. Historic governance, cultural, and natural factors in the region (e.g., climate change) create stresses that exacerbate the conflict and complicate the pursuit of Ethiopia’s interests.
I wish to engage a cross-section of key stakeholders in Ethiopia who are (or have been) involved these interventions.
I wish to engage a cross-section of key stakeholders in Ethiopia who are (or have been) involved these interventions.
Research Interests:
My research examines the dynamics of third-party peacekeeping, humanitarian aid, and development interventions and their combined effects on resiliency of different actors in civil conflict, using Somalia as a case study. Understanding... more
My research examines the dynamics of third-party peacekeeping, humanitarian aid, and development interventions and their combined effects on resiliency of different actors in civil conflict, using Somalia as a case study. Understanding the integrated effects of these interventions over time requires knowledge of what is happening on the ground among stakeholders and primary actors at the local and regional level, how these dynamics impact the broader conflict, and the result on both local and regional interests. Kenya has long-standing strategic interests in the Somali conflict that include instability in south central Somalia and operations in the port of Kismayo, cross-border spillover of violence and extremism, one of the world’s largest refugee camps in northeast Kenya, and absorption of displaced persons living as refugees in major urban cities such as Nairobi. These interests intertwine with domestic politics in Kenya and affect local stability, shaping Kenya's response to the conflict in Somalia. In addition, many International Nongovernmental Organizations (INGOs) that provide humanitarian aid or support peace operations in Somalia have their program offices in Nairobi. I will engage a cross-section of key stakeholders in Nairobi from all of these different organizations – NGOs, government, and military – to discuss their interventions in Somalia and the impacts.
Research Interests:
My research examines the combined effects of third-party peacekeeping, humanitarian aid, and development interventions on resiliency of different actors in civil conflict, using Somalia as a case study. Understanding the effects of these... more
My research examines the combined effects of third-party peacekeeping, humanitarian aid, and development interventions on resiliency of different actors in civil conflict, using Somalia as a case study. Understanding the effects of these interventions requires knowledge of what is happening on the ground at the local level and how the local level dynamics impact the broader conflict. These interviews will provide unique insights on those local dynamics from the perspective of the peacekeeping troops from Burundi in their support role to AMISOM.
Research Interests:
This field research conducted in the fall of 2011 presents an organizational study of how the principles and practice of democracy work at the local level within a major progressive religious organization during a time of turmoil and... more
This field research conducted in the fall of 2011 presents an organizational study of how the principles and practice of democracy work at the local level within a major progressive religious organization during a time of turmoil and change at the national level. The study is presented in memo style to incoming Bishop Michael Vono of a diocese deeply divided over the differences in key issues such as ordination of openly practicing homosexuals and women. The degree to which local leaders of the organization attempted suppression of transparent, open debate over national issues was a direct contradiction to the democratic principles espoused. However, where debate was present, it sometimes contributed to, rather than bridged, the divide which centered around perceptions of the derivation of legitimate authority. A key mechanism for suppression of debate and empowerment was found to be in the hidden means by which committees were formed and leaders were groomed. Lessons learned are relevant to any social organization navigating change through socially controversial, ideological issues.
Research Interests:
These reflections on democracy, human rights, and security in Morocco were written in the spring of 2009, preceding the events of the so-called Arab Spring across North Africa 2011. They provide a unique window into a world on the brink... more
These reflections on democracy, human rights, and security in Morocco were written in the spring of 2009, preceding the events of the so-called Arab Spring across North Africa 2011. They provide a unique window into a world on the brink of change. A return trip in January 2014 finds much the same, but much different with some contrasts even more pronounced. Political Islam is more evident along with extremism. More women wear the headscarf in the major cities, in an apparent nod to rising cultural conservatism. At the same time, progress is indicated by locals who now ride the modern public transportation across the river between Rabat and Sale, and increased political reforms instituted by the King in the wake of the uprisings elsewhere in the region. Yet many of the conundrums – and promise – remain in the summer of 2014. Topping the list is the continuing need for the government to gain the trust of the people and youth empowerment.
Research Interests:
Since the end of the Cold War, recurring civil conflicts have been the dominant form of violent armed conflict in the world, accounting for 70% of conflicts active between 2000-2013. Duration and intensity of episodes within recurring... more
Since the end of the Cold War, recurring civil conflicts have been the dominant form of violent armed conflict in the world, accounting for 70% of conflicts active between 2000-2013. Duration and intensity of episodes within recurring conflicts in Africa exhibit four behaviors characteristic of archetypal dynamic system structures. The overarching questions asked in this study are whether these patterns are robustly correlated with fundamental concepts of resiliency in dynamic systems that scale from micro-to macro levels; are they consistent with theoretical risk factors and causal mechanisms; and what are the policy implications.
Econometric analysis and dynamic systems modeling of 36 conflicts in Africa between 1989 -2014 are combined with process tracing in a case study of Somalia to evaluate correlations between state characteristics, peace operations and foreign aid on the likelihood of observed conflict patterns, test hypothesized causal mechanisms across scales, and develop policy recommendations for increasing human security while decreasing resiliency of belligerents. Findings are that observed conflict patterns scale from micro to macro levels; are strongly correlated with state characteristics that proxy a mix of cooperative (e.g., gender equality) and coercive (e.g., security forces) conflict-balancing mechanisms; and are weakly correlated with UN and regional peace operations and humanitarian aid. Interactions between peace operations and aid interventions that effect conflict persistence at micro levels are not seen in macro level analysis, due to interdependent, micro-level feedback mechanisms, sequencing, and lagged effects.
This study finds that the dynamic system structures associated with observed conflict patterns contain tipping points between balancing mechanisms at the interface of micro-macro level interactions that are determined as much by factors related to how intervention policies are designed and implemented, as what they are. Policy implications are that reducing risk of conflict persistence requires that peace operations and aid interventions (1) simultaneously increase transparency, promote inclusivity (with emphasis on gender equality), and empower local civilian involvement in accountability measures at the local levels; (2) build bridges between intervention sectors that horizontally and vertically integrate across levels using common metrics; and (3) pave pathways towards conflict transformation mechanisms and justice that scale from the individual, to community, regional, and national levels.
Econometric analysis and dynamic systems modeling of 36 conflicts in Africa between 1989 -2014 are combined with process tracing in a case study of Somalia to evaluate correlations between state characteristics, peace operations and foreign aid on the likelihood of observed conflict patterns, test hypothesized causal mechanisms across scales, and develop policy recommendations for increasing human security while decreasing resiliency of belligerents. Findings are that observed conflict patterns scale from micro to macro levels; are strongly correlated with state characteristics that proxy a mix of cooperative (e.g., gender equality) and coercive (e.g., security forces) conflict-balancing mechanisms; and are weakly correlated with UN and regional peace operations and humanitarian aid. Interactions between peace operations and aid interventions that effect conflict persistence at micro levels are not seen in macro level analysis, due to interdependent, micro-level feedback mechanisms, sequencing, and lagged effects.
This study finds that the dynamic system structures associated with observed conflict patterns contain tipping points between balancing mechanisms at the interface of micro-macro level interactions that are determined as much by factors related to how intervention policies are designed and implemented, as what they are. Policy implications are that reducing risk of conflict persistence requires that peace operations and aid interventions (1) simultaneously increase transparency, promote inclusivity (with emphasis on gender equality), and empower local civilian involvement in accountability measures at the local levels; (2) build bridges between intervention sectors that horizontally and vertically integrate across levels using common metrics; and (3) pave pathways towards conflict transformation mechanisms and justice that scale from the individual, to community, regional, and national levels.