- My expertise concentrates on applied microeconomics and quantitative public policy evaluation. My research agenda has... moreMy expertise concentrates on applied microeconomics and quantitative public policy evaluation. My research agenda has centered on studying the impact of adverse childhood experiences –such as the exposure to crime, violence, forced displacement and extreme poverty– on the development of cognitive, social and emotional abilities. My efforts have focused on the design and evaluation of interventions that help mitigate this impact. Namely, my most recent research projects focused on the impact of urban violence on children and adolescents and implementing programs to protect early childhood in the context of community violence in Colombia.edit
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As the global rate of displacement reaches new highs and the average length of displacement extends from years to decades, integration is an increasingly crucial lifeline for refugees and displaced communities seeking to rebuild their... more
As the global rate of displacement reaches new highs and the average length of displacement extends from years to decades, integration is an increasingly crucial lifeline for refugees and displaced communities seeking to rebuild their lives. Health systems serve as an ideal conduit for integration due to universal need, system complexity, and the interplay of political, social, and economic factors on health outcomes. Using lessons learned from case studies in Colombia and Jordan, this paper will explore different strategies for integration of refugee health services with host population health systems. It will highlight successful policy implementation and innovative approaches as well as predict potential barriers to success via a population-centered approach that emphasizes the importance of supporting host communities concurrently with displaced populations. It offers the following findings and recommendations for governmental and humanitarian actors. Effective integration requires a “whole of person” approach which acknowledges and responds to the linkages between legal status, economic needs, and mental and physical health and wellbeing. Addressing the health needs of populations experiencing protracted displacement must go hand-in-hand with, and cannot be decoupled from, addressing the needs of host communities. Demographic and epidemiologic data inclusive of both host and displaced populations enables governments and service providers to better plan for and respond to key health and non-health needs. Donors and financing structures can play a critical role in facilitating greater integration of health and other services.
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Youth violence poses a substantive public health burden in Latin America, particularly among adolescent boys. Understanding predictors of youth violence perpetration among boys and young men is critical to more effectively target and... more
Youth violence poses a substantive public health burden in Latin America, particularly among adolescent boys. Understanding predictors of youth violence perpetration among boys and young men is critical to more effectively target and tailor prevention programs, especially in Colombia, which has endured decades-long internal armed conflict. This study uses Colombia’s nationally representative 2018 Violence Against Children and Youth Survey data to examine risk and protective factors associated with violence perpetration among 13–24-year-old males. Amongst adolescent boys and young men in Colombia, the prevalence of ever perpetrating violence against someone other than an intimate partner was approximately 23%. Multivariable logistic regression models revealed that physical violence victimization by peers, emotional violence victimization by caregivers, having lost or been separated from a mother during childhood, and witnessing community violence were all associated with lifetime perpetration of youth violence. Programs targeting reduction of youth violence among boys might consider addressing the previously identified predictors earlier in the life course and at the individual, family and community levels.
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IntroductionHigh quality investments during early childhood allow children to achieve their full potential by setting developmental foundations. However, challenges in the scale-up of evidence-based interventions make across-the-board... more
IntroductionHigh quality investments during early childhood allow children to achieve their full potential by setting developmental foundations. However, challenges in the scale-up of evidence-based interventions make across-the-board implementation a non-trivial matter. Moreover, extreme contextual conditions -such as community violence, forced displacement, and poverty- impose a double threat. First, by directly affecting early childhood development (ECD), forced displacement and exposure to violence during early childhood, coupled with deficits in nurturing relationships, can trigger toxic stress, affecting children’s mental health and social and emotional learning. Second, contexts of extreme adversity exacerbate common implementation pitfalls in the scale-up of interventions. Recognizing and documenting “what it takes” to successfully implement “what works” can contribute to the expansion and effectiveness of evidence-based programs that promote ECD in these settings. Semillas ...
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El objetivo central de este estudio es proporcionar informacion relevante sobre las caracteristicas basicas de las barreras no arancelarias (BNAs) a un conjunto de exportaciones mineras colombianas, asi como su magnitud e incidencia sobre... more
El objetivo central de este estudio es proporcionar informacion relevante sobre las caracteristicas basicas de las barreras no arancelarias (BNAs) a un conjunto de exportaciones mineras colombianas, asi como su magnitud e incidencia sobre las ventas externas de dichos sectores. Los hallazgos principales del trabajo, que se exponen en esta seccion, resultan de interes en momentos en que en el ambito multilateral se discuten alternativas para clasificar y desmontar las barreras no arancelarias (o para-arancelarias) en el contexto de la Ronda Doha de negociaciones de la Organizacion Mundial de Comercio (OMC). Segun la Declaracion Ministerial de Hong Kong de la OMC de diciembre de 2005, los paises miembros deben definir a mas tardar el 30 de abril de 2006 las modalidades de negociacion para las BNAs. Luego las naciones circularan listas globales para su eliminacion, que se basaran en esas modalidades, a finales de julio de este mismo ano. En este contexto, los resultados de este estudio pueden contribuir al avance de la tarea de consolidar un inventario sobre las BNAs aplicadas en la frontera por socios comerciales de Colombia y, por este camino, impulsar su desmonte en un futuro cercano.
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"Este resumen ejecutivo se documenta con el fin de presupuestar los resultados, usando como herramientas un marco teorico en el cual se establecen las politicas publicas, las relaciones, los costos y la problematica en el ambito... more
"Este resumen ejecutivo se documenta con el fin de presupuestar los resultados, usando como herramientas un marco teorico en el cual se establecen las politicas publicas, las relaciones, los costos y la problematica en el ambito practico para dicho proyecto, a su vez muestra el desempeno presupuestal, la aplicacion del modelo de presupuestacion por resultados en el caso del ICBF, dividiendolo y metaforizandolo a su vez en jugadores y reglas del juego. Por ultimo se exponen los indicadores de seguimiento y evaluacion para la presupuestacion por resultados y las recomendaciones para implementar la prueba piloto con el ICBF."
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"El Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) ha aportado a esta reflexion con tres proyectos distintos pero concurrentes, que analizan respectivamente las causas del bajo crecimiento en la region, las recientes politicas de... more
"El Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) ha aportado a esta reflexion con tres proyectos distintos pero concurrentes, que analizan respectivamente las causas del bajo crecimiento en la region, las recientes politicas de desarrollo productivo y la efectividad de los servicios de apoyo a las exportaciones en diferentes paises de America Latina. En esta ocasion, el BID ha considerado oportuno consolidar en un solo volumen los estudios referidos a Colombia con el proposito de contribuir al analisis y el debate nacional de temas criticos para el desarrollo del pais."
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Research Interests: Welfare Economics, Social Policy, Colombia, Impact Evaluation, Children and Youth, and 9 morePoverty and Inequality, Conditional Cash Transfers, Aspirations, Conditional Cash Transfer, DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO SOCIAL, Cash Transfers, Familias en acción, Educational Aspirations and Expectations, and Conditional cash transfer programs
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As the global rate of displacement reaches new highs and the average length of displacement extends from years to decades, integration is an increasingly crucial lifeline for refugees and displaced communities seeking to rebuild their... more
As the global rate of displacement reaches new highs and the average length of displacement extends from years to decades, integration is an increasingly crucial lifeline for refugees and displaced communities seeking to rebuild their lives. Health systems serve as an ideal conduit for integration due to universal need, system complexity, and the interplay of political, social, and economic factors on health outcomes. Using lessons learned from case studies in Colombia and Jordan, this paper will explore different strategies for integration of refugee health services with host population health systems. It will highlight successful policy implementation and innovative approaches as well as predict potential barriers to success via a population-centered approach that emphasizes the importance of supporting host communities concurrently with displaced populations. It offers the following findings and recommendations for governmental and humanitarian actors. Effective integration requi...
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Background Despite widespread restrictions on residents’ mobility to limit the COVID-19 pandemic, controlled impact evaluations on such restrictions are rare. While Colombia imposed a National Lockdown, exceptions and additions created... more
Background Despite widespread restrictions on residents’ mobility to limit the COVID-19 pandemic, controlled impact evaluations on such restrictions are rare. While Colombia imposed a National Lockdown, exceptions and additions created variations across municipalities and over time. Methods We analyzed how weekend and weekday mobility affected COVID-19 cases and deaths. Using GRANDATA from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) we examined movement in 76 Colombian municipalities, representing 60% of Colombia's population, from March 2, 2020 through October 31, 2020. We combined the mobility data with Colombia’s National Epidemiological Surveillance System (SIVIGILA) and other databases and simulated impacts on COVID-19 burden. Results During the study period, Colombians stayed at home more on weekends compared to weekdays. In highly dense municipalities, people moved less than in less dense municipalities. Overall, decreased movement was associated with significant redu...
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Cognitive, social, and emotional development throughout life is contingent to affordances of the environments in which individuals develop. These abilities are the result of multiple interactions with our ecosystem and the people that... more
Cognitive, social, and emotional development throughout life is contingent to affordances of the environments in which individuals develop. These abilities are the result of multiple interactions with our ecosystem and the people that surround us. Namely, chronic exposure to violence has been shown to tamper positive human development. These potential negative consequences are particularly challenging in Colombia, a country stricken by more than five decades of civil conflict. In this paper, we evaluate the extent in which chronic exposure to violence —measured at the municipality level— affects children and adolescent’s social and emotional development. Our findings indicate that exposure to violence —particularly homicides— has an important negative association with unique measures of: (i) empathy, (ii) subjective beliefs on the acceptability of the use of violence, and (iii) non-confrontational reactions when provoked, all measured in a national standardized test. Additionally, w...
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We evaluate the impact of a price cap regulation implemented in the Colombian pharmaceutical market between 2011 and 2014. To do so, we take advantage of a unique data set where we observe three sources of variation: i) differences across... more
We evaluate the impact of a price cap regulation implemented in the Colombian pharmaceutical market between 2011 and 2014. To do so, we take advantage of a unique data set where we observe three sources of variation: i) differences across eighteen groups in the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification system of the WHO, ii) the existence of regulated (treated) and unregulated (control) groups within each of these eighteen ATC groups, and iii) differences in time (before and after regulation) for the eighteen ATC groups. A triple differences model with fixed time effects and cluster errors is used to identify the impact of this regulation. We find that the price-cap regulation contributed to reduce prices in three of the eighteen groups and increase average prices for ten of them. We confirm then that the focal point effect generated by a price-cap regulation can generate unintended distortions. More specifically, our results reveal that the implementation of this price c...
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Research Interests: Social Policy, Colombia, Political Science, Impact Evaluation, Children and Youth, and 8 moreSocial Science Research Network, Poverty and Inequality, Conditional Cash Transfers, Aspirations, Conditional Cash Transfer, Familias en acción, Educational Aspirations and Expectations, and Conditional cash transfer programs
Exposure to neighborhood violence is an important risk factor for the social and emotional development of children and youth. Previous work recognizes that violence may affect children indirectly via secondhand exposure; yet, few studies... more
Exposure to neighborhood violence is an important risk factor for the social and emotional development of children and youth. Previous work recognizes that violence may affect children indirectly via secondhand exposure; yet, few studies have aimed to identify and quantify these effects, especially in settings like Colombia where youth is chronically exposed to violence. To address this gap in the literature, this article implements an empirical strategy where geographically specific and time-stamped data are leveraged to identify the effect of indirect exposure to homicides on fifth grade children's social and emotional outcomes. Sample participants (N = 5801) represent the fifth-grade population of boys and girls (50.7%) in two major urban areas in the country (Mage = 11.01, SD = 0.75). We hypothesize that the effects of exposure to neighborhood violence on children's social and emotional skills will be consistent and negative. The findings indicate a consistent negative e...
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Esta nota tecnica presenta el informe de linea de base de la evaluacion de impacto del Programa de Madres Adolescentes de la Fundacion Juan Felipe Gomez Escobar. La Fundacion busca mejorar la calidad de vida de la poblacion infantil y... more
Esta nota tecnica presenta el informe de linea de base de la evaluacion de impacto del Programa de Madres Adolescentes de la Fundacion Juan Felipe Gomez Escobar. La Fundacion busca mejorar la calidad de vida de la poblacion infantil y adolescente en la ciudad de Cartagena, Colombia, a traves de la reduccion de la mortalidad infantil y el empoderamiento de las madres adolescentes. La evaluacion esta basada en un diseno de asignacion aleatoria y pretende cuantificar el impacto del programa sobre el estado de salud mental y fisica de las jovenes beneficiarias y sus hijos, asi como en la calidad de vida y bienestar de ellas y sus familias. El resultado principal del informe es que, en efecto, los grupos de tratamiento y control son practicamente identicos en linea de base; es decir, que la evaluacion de impacto tiene validez interna. Adicionalmente, se destaca que las jovenes de la muestra de evaluacion provienen de contextos de alta vulnerabilidad, lo que resulta consistente con los cr...
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This paper revisits economic growth in Colombia using a growth diagnostics methodology to identify the most binding constraints for economic growth and the policies that, if implemented, can have the largest positive impact. The data... more
This paper revisits economic growth in Colombia using a growth diagnostics methodology to identify the most binding constraints for economic growth and the policies that, if implemented, can have the largest positive impact. The data shows economic reactivation in areas with falling violence. Results from analysis at the microeconomic level, however, give a particular spin to this conclusion by showing that investment decisions at the firm level are also explained by the restoration of some form of public order connected to the cessation of paramilitary violence. From a public policy perspective, perhaps the most relevant result is the confirmation that in Colombia, investment decisions are negatively affected by the cost of financing. Empirical results single out the provision of access to financing at fair prices as a policy priority for economic growth, independent of whether uncertainties from poor protection to property rights are resolved.
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El objetivo central de este estudio es proporcionar informacion relevante sobre las caracteristicas basicas de las barreras no arancelarias (BNAs) a un conjunto de exportaciones mineras colombianas, asi como su magnitud e incidencia sobre... more
El objetivo central de este estudio es proporcionar informacion relevante sobre las caracteristicas basicas de las barreras no arancelarias (BNAs) a un conjunto de exportaciones mineras colombianas, asi como su magnitud e incidencia sobre las ventas externas de dichos sectores. Los hallazgos principales del trabajo, que se exponen en esta seccion, resultan de interes en momentos en que en el ambito multilateral se discuten alternativas para clasificar y desmontar las barreras no arancelarias (o para-arancelarias) en el contexto de la Ronda Doha de negociaciones de la Organizacion Mundial de Comercio (OMC). Segun la Declaracion Ministerial de Hong Kong de la OMC de diciembre de 2005, los paises miembros deben definir a mas tardar el 30 de abril de 2006 las modalidades de negociacion para las BNAs. Luego las naciones circularan listas globales para su eliminacion, que se basaran en esas modalidades, a finales de julio de este mismo ano. En este contexto, los resultados de este estudio...
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Chapter 1: I develop and estimate a dynamic household choice model that incorporates a broad set of determinants of children's labor supply and school attendance, to perform ex-ante evaluations of alternative versions of the urban... more
Chapter 1: I develop and estimate a dynamic household choice model that incorporates a broad set of determinants of children's labor supply and school attendance, to perform ex-ante evaluations of alternative versions of the urban implementation of the Mexican conditional cash transfer program Oportunidades. Previous research suggests that re-calibrating the targeting and parameters of the educational component of the program could potentially improve its effectiveness with respect to two key objectives: (i) increasing average schooling levels and (ii) eliminating the educational gender gap. The estimation of this behavioral model complements previous ex-post evaluations by providing a forecasting tool that can replicate how the households solve the optimization problem as the program's structure changes. I focus on evaluating cost-equivalent policy schemes that improve the program's efficacy in the first dimension. I find that, by eliminating grants at primary and lower...
I develop and estimate a dynamic household choice model that incorporates a broad set of determinants of children’s labor supply and school attendance, to perform ex-ante evaluations of alternative versions of the urban implementation of... more
I develop and estimate a dynamic household choice model that incorporates a broad set of determinants of children’s labor supply and school attendance, to perform ex-ante evaluations of alternative versions of the urban implementation of the Mexican conditional cash transfer program Oportunidades. Previous research suggests that re-calibrating the targeting and parameters of the educational component of the program could potentially improve its effectiveness with respect to two key objectives: (i) increasing average schooling levels and (ii) eliminating the educational gender gap. The estimation of this behavioral model complements previous ex-post evaluations by providing a forecasting tool that can replicate how the households solve the optimization problem as the program’s structure changes. I focus on evaluating cost-equivalent policy schemes that improve the program’s efficacy in the first dimension. I find that, by eliminating grants at primary and lower secondary levels (wher...
"El Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) ha aportado a esta reflexion con tres proyectos distintos pero concurrentes, que analizan respectivamente las causas del bajo crecimiento en la region, las recientes politicas de... more
"El Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) ha aportado a esta reflexion con tres proyectos distintos pero concurrentes, que analizan respectivamente las causas del bajo crecimiento en la region, las recientes politicas de desarrollo productivo y la efectividad de los servicios de apoyo a las exportaciones en diferentes paises de America Latina. En esta ocasion, el BID ha considerado oportuno consolidar en un solo volumen los estudios referidos a Colombia con el proposito de contribuir al analisis y el debate nacional de temas criticos para el desarrollo del pais."
Desarrollo de competencias transversales, sociales y emocionales en contextos adversos. Presentación hecha como apertura de la Mesa Regional de Cooperación sobre Competencias Transversales y Socioemocionales (MESACTS) en la que participan... more
Desarrollo de competencias transversales, sociales y emocionales en contextos adversos. Presentación hecha como apertura de la Mesa Regional de Cooperación sobre Competencias Transversales y Socioemocionales (MESACTS) en la que participan 9 países de América Latina, incluido Colombia a través del DNP, este año nos encontramos organizando en Bogotá el III encuentro de la MESACTS: “El desarrollo de las competencias transversales y socioemocionales a lo largo del ciclo de vida: desde la dimensión experimental hacia la incorporación en políticas públicas". El objetivo de este evento es compartir experiencias de otros países e identificar buenas prácticas en cuanto al diseño e implementación de diferentes políticas y acciones dirigidas al fortalecimiento de las competencias transversales y socioemocionales.
Tres puntos centrales: (1) ¿Por qué nos importa lo “no-cognitivo”?, (2) Desarrollo humano y contextos de adversidad, (3) Evidencia del impacto de la violencia sobre el desarrollo
Tres puntos centrales: (1) ¿Por qué nos importa lo “no-cognitivo”?, (2) Desarrollo humano y contextos de adversidad, (3) Evidencia del impacto de la violencia sobre el desarrollo
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La exposición a experiencias adversas, en particular la exposición a la violencia, limita el desarrollo humano y reduce la probabilidad de que una persona alcance su máximo potencial. En este estudio identificamos el efecto de la... more
La exposición a experiencias adversas, en particular la exposición a la violencia, limita el
desarrollo humano y reduce la probabilidad de que una persona alcance su máximo potencial.
En este estudio identificamos el efecto de la exposición a homicidios sobre el desempeño de
niños y jóvenes en una prueba estandarizada de matemáticas y lenguaje, en dos de las ciudades
principales de Colombia. Para identificar la relación causal, en nuestra estrategia empírica
aprovechamos la existencia de una ventana temporal exógena dada por la fecha de la prueba, y
la variación espacial y cronológica de la ocurrencia de homicidios. Encontramos que estar
expuesto a un homicidio adicional -ocurrido a menos de 500 metros del colegio y durante los
cuatro días antes de la prueba-, en promedio reduce el desempeño de un estudiante entre 0.15
y 0.24 desviaciones estándar. Este efecto corresponde a la diferencia entre el puntaje de un
estudiante ubicado en el percentil 50 y un estudiante en el percentil 43. Adicionalmente,
identificamos un gradiente en el tiempo de exposición: el efecto aumenta a medida que los
homicidios ocurren más cerca a la fecha de la prueba académica. En la medida en que la
erosión del capital humano tiene impactos persistentes sobre el bienestar, discutimos las
implicaciones de política pública en materia de seguridad, educación y salud emocional.
desarrollo humano y reduce la probabilidad de que una persona alcance su máximo potencial.
En este estudio identificamos el efecto de la exposición a homicidios sobre el desempeño de
niños y jóvenes en una prueba estandarizada de matemáticas y lenguaje, en dos de las ciudades
principales de Colombia. Para identificar la relación causal, en nuestra estrategia empírica
aprovechamos la existencia de una ventana temporal exógena dada por la fecha de la prueba, y
la variación espacial y cronológica de la ocurrencia de homicidios. Encontramos que estar
expuesto a un homicidio adicional -ocurrido a menos de 500 metros del colegio y durante los
cuatro días antes de la prueba-, en promedio reduce el desempeño de un estudiante entre 0.15
y 0.24 desviaciones estándar. Este efecto corresponde a la diferencia entre el puntaje de un
estudiante ubicado en el percentil 50 y un estudiante en el percentil 43. Adicionalmente,
identificamos un gradiente en el tiempo de exposición: el efecto aumenta a medida que los
homicidios ocurren más cerca a la fecha de la prueba académica. En la medida en que la
erosión del capital humano tiene impactos persistentes sobre el bienestar, discutimos las
implicaciones de política pública en materia de seguridad, educación y salud emocional.