- Departamento de Ciência Política
Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, 315 - 2º andar sala 2047
Cid.Universitária - São Paulo - SP
CEP 05508-900 - 55-11-3091-3754
Lorena Barberia
Universidade de São Paulo, Departamento de Ciência Política, Faculty Member
- Ciencia política, Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Methodology, Political Economy, Development Economics, and 18 moreLocal Economic Development, Fiscal federalism and decentralization, Desarrollo Local / Local Development, Decentralisation processes and development issues, Latin American Studies, Corruption, Brazilian Studies, Electoral Systems, Economic Crisis, Elections and Voting Behavior, Electoral Behavior, Voting Behavior, Voting, Latin America (Comparative Politics), Fiscal Policy and debt Management, Comparative Federalism, Brazilian Politics, and Latin American politicsedit
- Lorena G. Barberia is a faculty member of the Department of Political Science at the University of São Paulo. Her pri... moreLorena G. Barberia is a faculty member of the Department of Political Science at the University of São Paulo. Her primary fields of interest are comparative politics, political economy, and political methodology. Her work is aimed at analyzing redistributive politics in Latin America. At USP, Professor Barberia teaches quantitative methods, political economy, comparative political behavior courses for undergraduate and graduate students in the Department of Political Science. She is also the chair of the local organizing committee and an instructor in the IPSA-USP Summer School in Methods and Concepts in Political Science, Public Policy and International Relations.edit
Background: Surveillance efforts are essential to pandemic control, especially where the state is the primary health provider, such as Brazil. When public health testing guidelines limit molecular tests, there are reductions in detection... more
Background: Surveillance efforts are essential to pandemic control, especially where the state is the primary health provider, such as Brazil. When public health testing guidelines limit molecular tests, there are reductions in detection efforts aimed at early recognition, isolation, and treatment of those infected with the virus. This study evaluates the effectiveness of surveillance policies to control the COVID-19 pandemic in São Paulo. Methods: We conducted an interrupted time series analysis with a segmented regression model to analyze if changes in the state's guidelines improved RT-PCR testing outcomes in Brazil's most affluent and largest state, São Paulo. Anonymized daily data on the RT-PCR tests conducted in public laboratories belonging to the statewide network from March 1, 2020 to June 5, 2021 were extracted from the Sao Paulo State open-source database, while the data on the genomic sequences were obtained from GISAID. We then aggregated these data for the 17 regional health departments in the state to evaluate regional-level outcomes. Results: The public health system restricted RT-PCR testing to hospitalized cases in the first months. Testing was expanded to permit symptomatic testing of non-hospitalized persons only in July 2020, but a statistically significant increase in surveillance efforts was not observed. Case definition was expanded to allow case confirmation based on clinical, laboratory and image data criteria other than an RT-PCR test without increasing the testing effort for asymptomatic suspicious cases in September 2020. There was an increase in the mean volume of testing in each RHD, but the test positivity rate increased due to insufficient testing expansion. Results also show an uneven improvement in testing outcomes following these changes across the state's regional health departments. Conclusions: Evidence suggests that lower RT-PCR testing and genomic surveillance efforts are associated with areas characterized by a higher population concentration and a greater population reliance on the public health system. Our results highlight the need to structure health surveillance and information systems for disease control and prevention in emergency settings considering local demographics and vulnerabilities. In high prevalence settings, efforts at identifying and including vulnerable populations in routine and enhanced surveillance programs during COVID-19 must be significantly improved.
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Desde o início da pandemia de covid-19, houve grande interesse acerca do papel intermediário exercido pela política e da maneira pela qual ela afeta decisões governamentais e individuais sobre o desenvolvimento e a procura por vacinas,... more
Desde o início da pandemia de covid-19, houve grande interesse acerca do papel intermediário exercido pela política e da maneira pela qual ela afeta decisões governamentais e individuais sobre o desenvolvimento e a procura por vacinas, bem como da implementação da vacinação. Um fator adicional que tem contribuído para a politização desses processos tem sido a difusão de informações falsas através das mídias sociais relacionadas ao vírus e às vacinas. Neste artigo, exploramos
a forma como as atitudes acerca dos imunizantes desenvolvidos para
proteger a população dos sintomas mais graves causados pelo Sars-Cov-2 estão correlacionadas com a ideologia. Utilizamos os dados provenientes da pesquisa “Valores em Crise” para analisar em que medida as atitudes dos eleitores em relação à vacinação afetam
a probabilidade individual de vacinação contra o Sars-Cov-2.
a forma como as atitudes acerca dos imunizantes desenvolvidos para
proteger a população dos sintomas mais graves causados pelo Sars-Cov-2 estão correlacionadas com a ideologia. Utilizamos os dados provenientes da pesquisa “Valores em Crise” para analisar em que medida as atitudes dos eleitores em relação à vacinação afetam
a probabilidade individual de vacinação contra o Sars-Cov-2.
In Brazil, sub-national governments have played a particularly important role as the key actors implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions to halt the spread of COVID-19. Building on the methodology proposed by the Oxford COVID-19... more
In Brazil, sub-national governments have played a particularly important role as the key actors implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions to halt the spread of COVID-19. Building on the methodology proposed by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), we coded the stringency levels of state-level school, commerce, services, industry, public gathering, and private event closure policies and describe these actions' duration at the state-level in Brazil from early February to mid-May 2020. Our results suggest significant heterogeneity across Brazil and across weeks in social distancing policy stringency during this period. We then apply dynamic times-series cross-sectional methods to evaluate the effect of anti-contagion policies on the population's mobility using cell phone location data. We find that anti-contagion policies had a significant effect on producing higher adherence to remaining at home even though social distancing policies were relatively moderate as compared to other countries. Our results also suggest that social distancing policies have a greater impact when a more complete and coherent set of policies were introduced and sustained by state governments.
Several recent studies have investigated if support for Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential election of 2018 is positively associated with COVID-19 infections and deaths in Brazil. In these studies, COVID-19 outcomes in 2020 and 2021 are... more
Several recent studies have investigated if support for Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential election of 2018 is positively associated with COVID-19 infections and deaths in Brazil. In these studies, COVID-19 outcomes in 2020 and 2021 are the dependent variables, and votes for Jair Bolsonaro in the 2018 presidential election (as a proxy for ideology) are the key explanatory variable. This article discusses why ecological research designs are difficult to test empirically. We discuss why correlations between vote shares and COVID-19 outcomes using aggregate data can produce biased inferences, and we specifically focus on measurement error, aggregation bias, and spatial and temporal dynamics.
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Brazil needs a coordinated and cooperative approach to tackle COVID-19 To the Editor-After more than 14 months under siege, Brazilians continue to suffer as they see thousands of people dying every day, killed by the fast-moving... more
Brazil needs a coordinated and cooperative approach to tackle COVID-19 To the Editor-After more than 14 months under siege, Brazilians continue to suffer as they see thousands of people dying every day, killed by the fast-moving respiratory pathogen SARS-CoV-2. Families are struggling to secure their livelihoods, quell hunger and, in some cases, adjust to the long-term toll of having survived infection with SARS-CoV-2. With the surge in cases, overcrowding of hospitals and high lethality, those on the front lines understand that Brazil is at war with COVID-19. The assault has been brutal 1. A quarter of all deaths from COVID-19 in Brazil were officially recorded in April 2021. Meanwhile, a SARS-CoV-2 variant
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Brazil has been severely hit by COVID-19, with rapid spatial spread of both cases and deaths. We use daily data on reported cases and deaths to understand, measure, and compare the spatiotemporal pattern of the spread across... more
Brazil has been severely hit by COVID-19, with rapid spatial spread of both cases and deaths. We use daily data on reported cases and deaths to understand, measure, and compare the spatiotemporal pattern of the spread across municipalities. Indicators of clustering, trajectories, speed, and intensity of the movement of COVID-19 to interior areas, combined with indices of policy measures show that while no single narrative explains the diversity in the spread, an overall failure of implementing prompt, coordinated, and equitable responses in a context of stark local inequalities fueled disease spread. This resulted in high and unequal infection and mortality burdens. With a current surge in cases and deaths and several variants of concern in circulation, failure to mitigate the spread could further aggravate the burden.
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In Brazil, sub-national governments have played a particularly important role as the key actors implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions to halt the spread of COVID-19. Building on the methodology proposed by the Oxford COVID-19... more
In Brazil, sub-national governments have played a particularly important role as the key actors implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions to halt the spread of COVID-19. Building on the methodology proposed by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), we coded the stringency levels of state-level school, commerce, services, industry, public gathering, and private event closure policies and describe these actions’ duration at the state-level in Brazil from early February to mid-May 2020. Our results suggest significant heterogeneity across Brazil and across weeks in social distancing policy stringency during this period. We then apply dynamic times-series cross-sectional methods to evaluate the effect of anti-contagion policies on the population’s mobility using cell phone location data. We find that anti-contagion policies had a significant effect on producing higher adherence to remaining at home even though social distancing policies were relatively moderate as compared to other countries. Our results also suggest that social distancing policies have a greater impact when a more complete and coherent set of policies were introduced and sustained by state governments.
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In this study, we seek to contribute to discussions on how the quality of academic production in the field of political science should be evaluated using Brazil as a case study. We contrast the 'expert-driven approach' that is followed by... more
In this study, we seek to contribute to discussions on how the quality of academic production in the field of political science should be evaluated using Brazil as a case study. We contrast the 'expert-driven approach' that is followed by CAPES, an agency of the Brazilian federal government with the 'citational' approach, which is based on the ranking of journals by mainstream indices of scientific research impact. With data provided by CAPES from 2010 to 2014, we examine to what extent journals that are ranked as having high quality by CAPES also have high impact indexes in the SCImago Journal rank index (SJR), the Hirsch index (h-index) calculated by SCImago, the h5-index and h5-median (based on the h-index period 05 years, calculated by Google Scholar Metrics), and the SNIP indicator (calculated by the CWTS Journal Indicators, included in the Scopus database). Our findings show that there is a positive, but weak correlation between citational criteria and the Qualis evaluation of the same journals. In ordered logistic regressions, we show that a journal's past Qualis scores are the most important factor for explaining its grades in the next evaluation. We show that once a journal's past Qualis score is considered, a journal's citational ranking does not influence its Qualis score with the exception of the SJR in the 2013-4 evaluation. Moreover, a journal's Qualis score is not influenced by the country of publication, language, or social science focus, all else equal.
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Embora houve um aumento significativo na porcentagem de mulheres que ocupam posições de liderança política, as mulheres ainda são sub-representadas nos parlamentos, principalmente, quando se compara a porcentagem de eleitores do sexo... more
Embora houve um aumento significativo na porcentagem de mulheres que ocupam posições de liderança política, as mulheres ainda são sub-representadas nos parlamentos, principalmente, quando se compara a porcentagem de eleitores do sexo feminino com a porcentagem de mulheres eleitas. Neste estudo, elaboramos uma revisão sobre os principais achados da literatura que busca explicar a baixa presença de mulheres na política. Para refletir sobre a sub-representação feminina na política brasileira, utilizamos tanto da literatura que analisa, especificamente, o caso brasileiro, co-mo também de estudos que tratam de casos-chave e de estudos comparados.
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Research Interests: Politics, Financial management, Brazil, Social Responsibility, Cities, and 8 moreCrime, Human Resources for Health, Public Health Administration, Health Policy and Planning, Public Administration and Policy, Public health systems and services research, Health Services Administration, and Management Audit
Local economic development policies have surged in Brazil over the past decade—a major shift in this regionally diverse country of 27 states, over 5000 municipalities, and the largest economy in Latin America. We review the stylized... more
Local economic development policies have surged in Brazil over the past decade—a major shift in this regionally diverse country of 27 states, over 5000 municipalities, and the largest economy in Latin America. We review the stylized facts, expected patterns and policy recommendations from the foundational studies in regional and urban economics. We then provide a summary of a more recent stream of scholarship focused on local economic development (LED) studies in developed and developing countries that have surged in the last 20 years. Based on this review, we then systemize the findings emerging from studies focused on analyzing local economic development policies in Brazil recognizing the distinctive contributions emerging from both the empirical and the case studies literatures. We identify key lessons for (and from) the Brazilian experience and conclude that Brazil and Latin American countries need a new generation of studies that undertake more rigorous evaluations of these policy experiments. Finally, we recommend steps to advance such research.
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literature on political business cycles has produced important insights on the extent to which politicians attempt to manipulate government monetary and fiscal policies to influence electoral outcomes. In particular, some of the strongest... more
literature on political business cycles has produced important insights on the extent to which politicians attempt to manipulate government monetary and fiscal policies to influence electoral outcomes. In particular, some of the strongest evidence produced to date suggests that electoral cycles are particularly marked in the case of government expenditures.
ABSTRACT Abstract will be provided by author.
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School closures were one of the policies adopted worldwide for containment of the COVID-19 pandemic. While this type of non-pharmaceutical intervention has proven to be an effective policy to reduce virus transmission, there has not been... more
School closures were one of the policies adopted worldwide for containment of the COVID-19 pandemic. While this type of non-pharmaceutical intervention has proven to be an effective policy to reduce virus transmission, there has not been a systematic investigation to verify if governments implemented remote education programs to continue to deliver education to students. In Brazil's case, due to the lack of effective control of the pandemic, schools remained closed for in-person schooling over a prolonged period for the majority of the 2020 academic year. In developing countries, such as Brazil, this can increase education inequalities, especially if access to remote learning technologies is limited for vulnerable populations. In this working paper, we report the results of a novel effort to collect data to document the types of programs adopted by state and state capitals' governments to deliver remote schooling during the pandemic. We measure the duration, scope, and coverage of remote public education programs through quantitative indicators and an index that measures the overall quality of remote education programs in early childhood, primary and secondary education in Brazil in 2020. Our research reveals that there were significant delays in the adoption of these programs by both state and municipal governments. Furthermore, our findings confirm that the programs dedicated insufficient attention to ensuring access to technologies that would encourage learning, interaction and supervision of students remotely. We then show that remote education programs are correlated with previous economic and educational conditions and use survey data collected from households across Brazil to show that remote education programs affected educational outcomes. We conclude by noting that the evidence collected in our report underscores that greater attention must be directed to the challenges and problems encountered in implementing remote education programs. The available evidence suggests that policies must be designed to address the preexisting, now augmented, unequal access and unequal provision of education for vulnerable groups.
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This paper brings together information about Brazil’s federal, state and state-capital Covid-19 response policies, mobile-phone mobility data, and original survey data, to assess whether the World Health Organization’s six criteria for... more
This paper brings together information about Brazil’s federal, state and state-capital Covid-19 response policies, mobile-phone mobility data, and original survey data, to assess whether the World Health Organization’s six criteria for evaluating readiness for easing response policies are met. We find that this is broadly not the case. Using OxCGRT for federal, state and some city governments, we report that subnational governments have enacted many of these policies, and that state-government policies have significantly affected behaviour (they impact all three available measures of citizens’ mobility). Although shifts in mobility have waned over time, during the period when policy stringency has been high (from mid-March until the end of May), these shifts have remained significant. Our survey of 1,654 people identified shortcomings in citizens’ understandings of how selfisolating people should behave: 95% of the populations of eight state-capital cities mistakenly believed that self-isolation means that you can leave the house to buy essential items. Correspondingly, recently symptomatic people were more likely than those who were unlikely to be contagious to leave home only once or twice within a fortnight. As reported elsewhere, testing and contact-tracing has been limited in Brazil (even though citizens have good knowledge of how to recognise Covid-19 symptoms), and economically vulnerable groups have seen the largest income reductions. We also find indications that having a high income predicts timely access to testing, and that income support has made up for at least half of the income losses of many of those receiving it. Privately schooled children and teenagers have received higher quality home education than their publicly schooled contemporaries. At the end of the paper we provide summaries reporting policy environments and survey results for eight state capitals – Fortaleza, Goiânia, Manaus, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, and São Paulo
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ObjectivesThis study aims to assess the progress of geographic, socioeconomic, and demographic disparities in Covid-19 vaccination coverage in Brazil over the first two years of the vaccination campaign.Study designEcologic... more
ObjectivesThis study aims to assess the progress of geographic, socioeconomic, and demographic disparities in Covid-19 vaccination coverage in Brazil over the first two years of the vaccination campaign.Study designEcologic study.MethodsData from the National Immunization Program Information System were used to estimate covid-19 vaccine coverage. Brazilian municipalities were divided into two groups based on their vaccine coverage for the booster dose. The first group comprised 20% of municipalities with the lowest coverage, while the second group (80% of municipalities) had higher coverage. The analysis was conducted separately for four age groups: 5-11, 12-17, 18-59, and 60+. Exploratory variables included socioeconomic and health services indicators. Crude and adjusted logistic regression models were used to estimate the probability of a municipality being among those with the worst vaccination coverage according to the categories of exploratory variables.ResultsBetween January/2...
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Desde o início da pandemia de covid-19, houve grande interesse acerca do papel intermediário exercido pela política e da maneira pela qual ela afeta decisões governamentais e individuais sobre o desenvolvimento e a procura por... more
Desde o início da pandemia de covid-19, houve grande interesse acerca do papel intermediário exercido pela política e da maneira pela qual ela afeta decisões governamentais e individuais sobre o desenvolvimento e a procura por vacinas, bem como da implementação da vacinação. Um fator adicional que tem contribuído para a politização desses processos tem sido a difusão de informações falsas através das mídias sociais relacionadas ao vírus e às vacinas. Neste artigo, exploramos a forma como as atitudes acerca dos imunizantes desenvolvidos para proteger a população dos sintomas mais graves causados pelo Sars-Cov-2 estão correlacionadas com a ideologia. Utilizamos os dados provenientes da pesquisa “Valores em Crise” para analisar em que medida as atitudes dos eleitores em relação à vacinação afetam a probabilidade individual de vacinação contra o Sars-Cov-2.
Research Interests: Philosophy, Humanities, Vaccines, Ideology, Brazil, and 5 moreBrasil, Ideologia, Vaccination, Vacinas, and Vaccine Hesitancy
Este artigo discute objetivos, metodologia e resultados de um programa-piloto lancado para introduzir estudantes de graduacao da Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP) aos metodos quantitativos. Em 2013, o formato tradicional de aulas... more
Este artigo discute objetivos, metodologia e resultados de um programa-piloto lancado para introduzir estudantes de graduacao da Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP) aos metodos quantitativos. Em 2013, o formato tradicional de aulas expositivas foi substituido por um modelo baseado na realizacao de atividades. Discute-se brevemente a pesquisa realizada acerca do ensino de metodos e tecnicas de pesquisa quantitativa em ciencia politica em diferentes paises, bem como as variadas propostas pedagogicas desenvolvidas nesse campo, para contextualizar e analisar o programa-piloto na USP, assim como reportar os resultados preliminares obtidos a partir desses esforcos.
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Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse,... more
Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches1, while maintaining proven preve...
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Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse,... more
Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches1, while maintaining proven preve...
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The relationship between peace and health is complex, multifactorial and fraught with challenges of definitions, measurements and outcomes. This exploratory commentary on this nexus within a focus on the Americas posits this challenge... more
The relationship between peace and health is complex, multifactorial and fraught with challenges of definitions, measurements and outcomes. This exploratory commentary on this nexus within a focus on the Americas posits this challenge clearly and calls for more scholarship and empirical work on this issue from an interdisciplinary perspective. The overall goal of this paper is to try and explore the elements that impact the relationship between peace and health with a focus on the Americas (defined as countries spanning from Canada to Argentina) in the post-Cold war period. Focusing on the 1990s and onwards, we seek to underscore why violence continues to permeate these societies despite a third and lasting wave of democratisation in the hemisphere. We hope this will allow a more robust dialogue on peace and health in the regional and global health literature.
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Embora houve um aumento significativo na porcentagem de mulheres que ocupam posições de liderança política, as mulheres ainda são sub-representadas nos parlamentos, principalmente, quando se compara a porcentagem de eleitores do sexo... more
Embora houve um aumento significativo na porcentagem de mulheres que ocupam posições de liderança política, as mulheres ainda são sub-representadas nos parlamentos, principalmente, quando se compara a porcentagem de eleitores do sexo feminino com a porcentagem de mulheres eleitas. Neste estudo, elaboramos uma revisão sobre os principais achados da literatura que busca explicar a baixa presença de mulheres na política. Para refletir sobre a sub-representação feminina na política brasileira, utilizamos tanto da literatura que analisa, especificamente, o caso brasileiro, co-mo também de estudos que tratam de casos-chave e de estudos comparados.
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$ Cuban Americans and Their Transnational Ties Susan Eckstein and Lorena Barberia Cuban-American homeland ties must be understood in the context of Cuba-US im-migration history. Emigration rates have varied with US law,... more
$ Cuban Americans and Their Transnational Ties Susan Eckstein and Lorena Barberia Cuban-American homeland ties must be understood in the context of Cuba-US im-migration history. Emigration rates have varied with US law, Castro's tolerance and encouragement ...
Background: Surveillance efforts are critical to pandemic control, especially where the state is the primary health provider, such as Brazil. When public health testing guidelines limit RT-PCRs, there are reductions in detection efforts... more
Background: Surveillance efforts are critical to pandemic control, especially where the state is the primary health provider, such as Brazil. When public health testing guidelines limit RT-PCRs, there are reductions in detection efforts aimed at early recognition, isolation, and treatment of those infected with the virus.Methods: We conducted an interrupted time series analysis with a segmented regression model using publicly available data to analyze if changes in the state’s guidelines improved RT-PCR testing outcomes in Brazil’s most affluent and largest state, São Paulo, from March 2020 to June 2021. Results: The São Paulo state’s policy guidelines have changed substantially over time. In the first months, the public health system restricted RT-PCR testing to hospitalized cases. Testing was expanded to permit symptomatic testing of non-hospitalized persons only in July 2020. In September 2020, there was a review of the national surveillance guidelines and case definition was exp...
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Codebook do COVID-19 Government ResponseTracker for the Brazilian Federation (CGRT-BRFED)
Esta carta discute a situação epidêmica da Covid-19 no Brasil frente aoaparecimento de uma nova linhagem, chamada P1, mais transmissível e compossível re-infecção associada. Tendo em vista o colapso do atendimentohospitalar em Manaus em... more
Esta carta discute a situação epidêmica da Covid-19 no Brasil frente aoaparecimento de uma nova linhagem, chamada P1, mais transmissível e compossível re-infecção associada. Tendo em vista o colapso do atendimentohospitalar em Manaus em janeiro de 2021 e os resultados de três preprintsrecentes, todos encontrando maior transmissibilidade da variante P.1, propomos algumas ações urgentes: o estabelecimento de uma vigilância genômica baseada em diagnóstico em múltiplos passos, iniciando com os testes do tipo RT-PCR até o sequenciamento; um esforço imediato na identificação de re-infecções associadas à nova variante, atualizando os seus protocolos de definição; e estudos sobre a eficácia das vacinas atualmente disponíveis no Brasil na vigência da nova variante. Propomos, ademais, o aprimoramento do sistema de vigilância em saúde brasileiro, que seja articulado com a vigilância genômica, de forma a responder mais oportunamente a emergências futuras. Chamamos os agentes públicos implicados...
Local Coordinator: Ciro Biderman World Bank Coordinators: Paulo Correa Christine Kessides André Herzog Principal Investigator: Danilo Igliori Researches: Lorena Barberia Marcelo Tyszler Research Assistants: Guilherme Finkelfarb Lichand... more
Local Coordinator: Ciro Biderman World Bank Coordinators: Paulo Correa Christine Kessides André Herzog Principal Investigator: Danilo Igliori Researches: Lorena Barberia Marcelo Tyszler Research Assistants: Guilherme Finkelfarb Lichand Paulo Palombo Alexandre Schneider Fernanda Teles Lima Trainees: Bruno dos Santos Barbosa Renata Benveniste Additional Staff (Case Studies): Henrique Heidtmann Fabio Storino
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The interest and active participation of governments at the municipal, state, regional and federal levels to promote and guide local economic development (LED) in Brazil has surged significantly over the last decade. Though research... more
The interest and active participation of governments at the municipal, state, regional and federal levels to promote and guide local economic development (LED) in Brazil has surged significantly over the last decade. Though research directed at examining how growth can be ignited at the local level has occupied the attention of scholars, research on how issues of public administration and policy are impacted by spatiality in the case of Brazil remains an emerging field. This paper reviews the literature on local economic development policies, focusing on synthesizing the research findings emerging in two main bodies of work— ‘new economic geography’ (NEG) models and studies examining regional economic development efforts in developed and developing countries. We synthesize the key policy implications emerging from both literature streams with particular attention to the case of local economic development policies directed at Brazil. Secondly, we draw attention to the scant interchan...
Neste artigo, examinamos a evolucao do ensino de metodos e tecnicas de pesquisa nos cursos de pos-graduacao em Ciencia Politica no Brasil com o objetivo de discutir os avancos e desafios. Utilizando um banco de dados sobre o ensino de... more
Neste artigo, examinamos a evolucao do ensino de metodos e tecnicas de pesquisa nos cursos de pos-graduacao em Ciencia Politica no Brasil com o objetivo de discutir os avancos e desafios. Utilizando um banco de dados sobre o ensino de metodos e tecnicas de pesquisa nos programas de pos-graduacao em Ciencia Politica de 1998 a 2012, mostramos que houve um avanco consideravel na oferta de disciplinas metodologicas vis-a-vis as grades curriculares dos programas no Brasil ao longo do periodo observado. Porem, verifica-se concentracao da oferta de disciplinas em algumas instituicoes e relativa estagnacao no numero medio de disciplinas de metodos e tecnicas de pesquisa oferecidas. Concluimos que o perfil de formacao dos quadros docentes e o projeto pedagogico dos cursos, bem como a aderencia entre um e outro, sao os principais determinantes dessa tendencia.
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How can Cuba address the challenges of economic development and transformation that have bedeviled so many Latin American and Eastern European countries? What are the universally common macroeconomic and societal challenges it faces and... more
How can Cuba address the challenges of economic development and transformation that have bedeviled so many Latin American and Eastern European countries? What are the universally common macroeconomic and societal challenges it faces and the specific peculiarities that have emerged after a decade-long transformation of its economy? For the Cuban and American social scientists and policy experts writing in this timely and provocative volume, the answer lies in examining Cuba's development trajectory by delving into issues ranging from the political economy of reform to their impact on specific sectors including export development, foreign direct investment, and U.S.-Cuba trade. Moreover, the volume also draws attention to the intersection between economic reform and societal dynamics by exploring changes in household consumption, socio-economic mobility, as well as remittances and their effects, while remaining steadfast in its focus on their policy implications for Cuba's fut...
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In Brazil, sub-national governments have played a particularly important role as the key actors implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions to halt the spread of COVID-19. Building on the methodology proposed by the Oxford COVID-19... more
In Brazil, sub-national governments have played a particularly important role as the key actors implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions to halt the spread of COVID-19. Building on the methodology proposed by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), we coded the stringency levels of state-level school, commerce, services, industry, public gathering, and private event closure policies and describe these actions’ duration at the state-level in Brazil from early February to mid-May 2020. Our results suggest significant heterogeneity across Brazil and across weeks in social distancing policy stringency during this period. We then apply dynamic times-series cross-sectional methods to evaluate the effect of anti-contagion policies on the population’s mobility using cell phone location data. We find that anti-contagion policies had a significant effect on producing higher adherence to remaining at home even though social distancing policies were relatively moderate as...
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Objetivo: Este artigo propõe criar um instrumento para analisar a adequação de protocolos de classificação de risco para COVID-19 às orientações da Organização Mundial de Saúde (OMS) e analisa o protocolo utilizado por Santa Catarina.... more
Objetivo: Este artigo propõe criar um instrumento para analisar a adequação de protocolos de classificação de risco para COVID-19 às orientações da Organização Mundial de Saúde (OMS) e analisa o protocolo utilizado por Santa Catarina. Método: A pesquisa descritiva foi composta de três partes: 1) extração de informações concernentes à análise de risco e à COVID-19 dos documentos da OMS; 2) elaboração de instrumento para análise da adequação de protocolos de classificação de risco para COVID-19 às orientações da OMS; 3) aplicação do instrumento ao protocolo utilizado no estado de Santa Catarina. Resultados: Cinco documentos da OMS foram revistos. O instrumento construído contemplou cinco dimensões: avaliação do risco em si, avaliação da exposição, avaliação do contexto, caracterização do risco e confiabilidade. Informações parciais com relação à avaliação do risco em si e à confiabilidade foram encontradas no protocolo do governo catarinense. Não foram encontradas informações com rela...
Background The testing of infected persons with SARS-CoV-2 is one of the cornerstones to deploy pandemic control strategies. The public diagnostic effort is particularly important among the most vulnerable socioeconomic districts where... more
Background The testing of infected persons with SARS-CoV-2 is one of the cornerstones to deploy pandemic control strategies. The public diagnostic effort is particularly important among the most vulnerable socioeconomic districts where the state is the sole health provider, such as Sao Paulo state, the Brazilian epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods We developed an RT-PCR testing intensity effort index (RT-PCR TIEI) composed of seven indicators to assess the intensity testing efforts in the state of Sao Paulo. Each Regional Health Department (RHD) was scored using anonymized public data. We used dynamic time-series cross-sectional models to analyze the association between the RT-PCR TIEI in Sao Paulo state and its 17 RHDs from epidemiological weeks 10 to 35, and the proportion of the population living under a high level of socioeconomic vulnerability, dependent on public health service (SUS), per capita income, and population density. The regression models included an intercep...
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ABSTRACT: This article discusses the epidemic situation of Covid-19 in Brazil, in the face of the emergence of a new strain called P.1, which is more transmissible and may be associated with reinfection. Given the collapse of hospital... more
ABSTRACT: This article discusses the epidemic situation of Covid-19 in Brazil, in the face of the emergence of a new strain called P.1, which is more transmissible and may be associated with reinfection. Given the collapse of hospital care in Manaus in January 2021 and the results of three recent preprints, each that reports increased transmissibility of the P.1 variant, we propose some urgent measures. Genomic surveillance based on multi-step diagnostics, starting with RT-PCR type tests and up to sequencing, should be established. Efforts to identify reinfections associated with this variant and the update of its definition in protocols should be prioritized, and studies on the efficacy of currently available vaccines in Brazil concerning the new variant should be conducted. We also propose improving the Brazilian health surveillance system such that genomic surveillance is coordinated and thereby better able to respond to future emergencies in a more timely fashion. We call on the...
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Unmitigated spread in Brazil Despite an extensive network of primary care availability, Brazil has suffered profoundly during the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. Using daily data from state health... more
Unmitigated spread in Brazil Despite an extensive network of primary care availability, Brazil has suffered profoundly during the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. Using daily data from state health offices, Castro et al. analyzed the pattern of spread of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the country from February to October 2020. Clusters of deaths before cases became apparent indicated unmitigated spread. SARS-CoV-2 circulated undetected in Brazil for more than a month as it spread north from Sã o Paulo. In Manaus, transmission reached unprecedented levels after a momentary respite in mid-2020. Faria et al. tracked the evolution of a new, more aggressive lineage called P.1, which has 17 mutations, including three (K417T, E484K, and N501Y) in the spike protein. After a period of accelerated evolution, this variant emerged in Brazil during November 2020. Coupled with the emergence of P.1, disease spread was accelerated by stark local inequalities and ...
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Objective Methods Results Conclusion To test for multicausality between government policy, health outcomes, economic performance, and citizen behavior during the COVID‐19 global pandemic.We perform Granger‐causality tests to explore the... more
Objective Methods Results Conclusion To test for multicausality between government policy, health outcomes, economic performance, and citizen behavior during the COVID‐19 global pandemic.We perform Granger‐causality tests to explore the interrelationship between four endogenous variables, social distancing policy, home isolation, balance rate, and average weekly COVID‐19 deaths, in the 26 states of Brazil. As exogenous variables, we included a linear time trend and a dummy for the week in which the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID‐19 a global pandemic.Our analysis of Granger causal ordering between the four variables demonstrates that there is significant heterogeneity across the Brazilian federation. These findings can be interpreted as underscoring that there is no common model applicable to all states, and that the dynamics are context‐dependent.Our suggested approach allows researchers to account for the complex interrelationship between government policy, citizen behavior, the economy, and COVID‐related health outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Social Science Quarterly (Wiley-Blackwell) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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Informação de qualidade para aperfeiçoar as políticas públicas e salvar vidas Principais conclusões • O Brasil é o que menos testa entre os 20 países com maior taxa de óbitos por Covid-19. Além de não realizar o volume de testes... more
Informação de qualidade para aperfeiçoar as políticas públicas e salvar vidas Principais conclusões • O Brasil é o que menos testa entre os 20 países com maior taxa de óbitos por Covid-19. Além de não realizar o volume de testes necessários, o Brasil tampouco realiza testes suficientes para identificar a proporção de brasileiros que já manteve contato com o vírus. • A lacuna de informação sobre a presença e circulação do vírus entre a população está na base da subnotificação de casos positivos e deixa as decisões de distanciamento físico e de flexibilização mais sensíveis à pressão dos negócios, à política ou à subjetividade. • A média de positividade dos testes no país foi de 36% em junho de 2020, sendo que a recomendação da OMS é de até 5%, patamar não alcançado por nenhum estado brasileiro. • Grande parte dos estados torna público apenas o total de testes, sem classificação por tipo que, como se sabe, têm eficácia distinta na identificação do vírus. Somente 14 estados prestam contas do número de testes RT-PCR, que identifica mais precisamente as pessoas infectadas, e do número de testes que apontam as pessoas que já tiveram contato com o vírus e possuem anticorpos (IgM e IgG). • As secretarias de saúde do Acre, Amapá, Goiás, Rondônia, Rio de Janeiro, Roraima, São Paulo e Tocantins não apresentam nenhuma informação sobre os testes realizados em suas plataformas oficiais; • Somente 09 estados apresentaram uma taxa de positividade inferior a 20% na primeira semana de junho. E até o dia 20 de junho a testagem com resultados positivos era alta em todos os estados.