Economics of Crime

US states maintain sex offender registries in an effort to reduce sex crimes and recidivism. This paper examines the effectiveness of sex offender registries using administrative data from North Carolina. To estimate the causal effect, I exploit variation induced by the fact that small differences in the date of initial registry meant that some offenders were removed from the registry after 10 years, while others stayed on it. Regression discontinuity estimates suggest that this increase in registry length does not decrease sex crime recidivism as intended; it may however, reduce an offender’s probability of recidivating with a court procedure-related infraction.

The study examined the determinants of crimes in Nigeria from economic and socioeconomic perspectives: A macro-level analysis using a time series data covering the period of 1990 to 2014. Both economic and socioeconomic factors that determinant crime were included in the model. The economic factors include GDP per capita; male unemployment rate; female unemployment rate and poverty rate while the socioeconomic-demographic factors include higher education enrolment; urban population and rural population. The study embraces the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to empirically analyze the model since the variables were stationary at levels I(0) and first difference I(1). The empirical results in the long-run indicated that gross domestic product per capita and female unemployment rate was found to have a negative significant effect on crime rate in Nigeria while urban and rural population, male and female unemployment rate were found to have a positive significant effect on crime rate in Nigeria. Also, the results of the short-run indicated that gross domestic product per capita and higher education was found to have a negative significant effect on crime rate in Nigeria while urban population, male unemployment rate and poverty rate were found to have a positive significant effect on crime rate in Nigeria in the short-run. Therefore, for a country like Nigeria to reduce criminal activities in the country, there must be an increase in the income of the people. Also, government should invest more in education because it makes the people more rational and more risk averse and so it reduces the propensity to commit crimes. Therefore, higher education attainment will be the cure for criminal activities in Nigeria. Government should also create more jobs because high unemployment rates will compel people to commit crimes and this will increase crime rate in Nigeria. Lastly, there should be high budgetary provision towards poverty alleviation programme because higher poverty may lead to higher crimes rate due to depression or mental illness associated with being poor and this will decreases the rate of return of legal activities and more likely to increase return of illegal activities.

— Effective response towards crime is one of the essential priorities for all society. In order to provide an effective response, it is significant to understand the relationship between crime and various factors. Economics has always been a social science which focuses on resource availability as its demand. The imbalance created has paved way for economic distortions and impact on well-being of mankind. In the pursuit to improve financial well-being, criminals have always been guided by economic factors and thereby providing a wide scope to analyze interdependence between economics and crime. Therefore, an attempt has been made to find out the socioeconomic status and various factors for committing property crime among 654 convicted property crime offenders housed in the eleven prisons of the state of Tamil Nadu. Findings reveal that almost all of the respondents are belong to poor socio economic status and they have cited various factors such as personal factors, situational factors resulted in committing property crime. The derived finding will be more useful in preventing individuals from committing property crime by understanding and rectifying the causative factors.

This chapter provides a background against which to assess the recent evolution
of the EU anti-money-laundering legal framework, by first illustrating the economic
menaces posed by money laundering and, second, by accounting for the rise of
new international standards and assessing the performance of a sample of domestic
anti-money-laundering pieces of legislation. The chapter outlines the serious threats
posed by transnational money-laundering operations in the context of economic
globalization, and calls for highly coordinated international responses to such a crime.
The focus is on the phenomenological aspect of money laundering as a transnational
crime and as the necessary means through which criminal activity can live on and
proliferate. It highlights that money laundering is also (if not mainly) an economic
issue.1 Economic analysis calls for an accurate legal response, with typical tradeoffs:
It should deter criminals from money laundering by increasing the costs for such
illicit operations, calling for enhanced regulatory and enforcement activities. However,
stronger enforcement leads to increased costs and reduces privacy. At the international
and the EU level and within single domestic legal systems, anti-money laundering law is typically characterized by a multidisciplinary approach combining
the criminal legal measures with preventive mechanisms: An empirical evaluation
of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-World Bank (WB) anti-money-laundering
program is presented, where these two aspects are assessed. The non-criminal
measures (i.e., the preventive measures) recently implemented under the auspices
of the main intergovernmental public organizations with competence in these fields
seem to be consistent with the insights of economic analysis. Indeed, it should deter
criminals from laundering by increasing the costs for such illicit operations. Intensifying
regulation and enhancing the enforcing activities can arguably achieve the aim. Both
at the international level and within the single domestic legal systems, anti-money laundering law is typically characterized by a holistic approach with both criminal legal
and preventive mechanisms. The non-criminal measures recently implemented at both
national and international levels seem to be consistent with the economic literature on
money laundering and its possible regulation.

We contribute to the debate on how to assess the size of the underground or shadow economy with a reinterpretation of the traditional Currency Demand Approach (CDA) à la Tanzi. We introduce three main innovations. First, we take  as dependent variable in the money demand equation a direct measure of the value of cash transactions: the flow of cash withdrawn from current accounts relative to total non-cash payments. This avoids use of the
Fisher equation and so overcomes two severe  criticisms of the traditional CDA. Second, instead of the tax burden, usually taken as the main motive for non-compliance, we include among the covariates two direct indicators of detected tax evasion. Finally, we also control for the role of illegal economic activity, such as drug dealing and prostitution, which – jointly with the shadow economy – contributes to  the larger aggregate of the  unobserved economy and represents a significant component of total cash payments. We then propose an application of this “modified CDA” to a panel of 91 Italian provinces for the years 2005-2008.

This study offers fresh empirical insights into the causes of terrorism
in Pakistan. The authors present a novel strategy for hypothesis
building in conflict studies, and explore the importance of the explanatory
variables within the time frame of the analysis. The hypothesized
relationships are tested using pooled cross-section time
series data from five regions of Pakistan (the federally controlled
area and four provinces from 1980 to 2010) using fixed effect
negative binomial regression. The results indicate that public education
expenditures, law & order expenditures, ethnic diversity, urban
population, the presence of domestic military operations, and
U.S. military aid to Pakistan all result in increased terrorist activity
in Pakistan. This study recommends that ethnic diversity and
multilingualism be respected in education in Pakistan, that the educational
curriculum be cleansed of systemic incendiary language
and bigotry, that law enforcement agencies be freed of political
control, and that strategic partnership with the United States be
reassessed considering the core long-term interests of Pakistan.

Increasing number of crimes has become an important problem of the economic development during the last decades. In addition to the economic and social determinants of criminal activities, access to healthcare services is considered as an important factor to decrease a person's risk of committing a crime. This study aims to analyze the impact of mental health problems on crime in an economic framework. Panel data on violent and property crimes for the counties for the period from 2011 to 2013 in the USA are employed. Based on information and statistics from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, and the SAMSHA, a simple model of crime is proposed to analyze the relationship of mental wellness and crime rate. A fixed-effect approach is used to estimate the potential correlation. Then, the findings are compared with the estimation results from one step dynamic panel model and between-groups model. The results from the fixed effect approach show that physical inactivity and number of mental health providers are significantly related to crime. An increase in the number of mental health providers results in decrease in all crime categories but grand larceny and property crimes per 100,000 people. Additionally, the estimation results from the between groups model are highly consist with estimations from the fixed effect results.

The tourism industry players agree that security in a holiday activity is expected conditions for tourists to visit a given location. So reputable place not safe, with high rates of crime, will be substituted by a perceived safe by tourists as an alternative tourist sites. This article examines the relationship of tourism activity and crime in Indonesia to estimate the effect of crime on tourism activities . Analysis was performed using tourism sector data obtained from BPS, named Statistik Pariwisata, proxied by hotel accomodation include; number of rooms, workers and tourists length of stay at the hotel. Meanwhile the crime data obtained from SUSENAS which also released by BPS as main independent variable.


At the initial stage, analysis is done by using a fixed-effecs panel model from the range 2009-2013 to estimate total impact of crime on tourism industry's growth at provincial level. The study found crime negatively affect tourism sector activities. Crime worsen performance of hotel industry by reducing length of the tourists stay at hotel. However, when the data is broken down to two types of hotel, stars and non-stars hotel, then found that this adverse impact is felt by non-star hotel. To determine the adverse impact on specific tourism industry agent both consumers and produces, we also do examination according to it. The findings of this study will be basis for tourism industry and government to implement strategies and resources in order to overcome the adverse effects of crime on and sustain tourism industry.

Utilizando datos agregados por vecindario para 2010 en el Área Metropolitana de Monterrey (AMM), México, este trabajo investiga el efecto de las características del entorno en la delincuencia. Se corrobora la existencia de autocorrelación espacial en los datos, es decir, se encuentra que vecindarios con altos índices de delincuencia inciden positivamente en los índices de delincuencia de los vecindarios cercanos. Después de controlar por el sesgo causado por la autocorrelación espacial y la censura de los datos, se encuentra evidencia de que la probabilidad de ser víctima de un delito y la probabilidad de que alguien se convierta en delincuente está positivamente relacionada con el desempleo, el porcentaje de jóvenes varones y la existencia de centros comerciales en el vecindario.

Resumo O Mapa da Violência 2014 – Os jovens do Brasil (WAISELFISZ, 2014), um estudo recente e detalhado sobre a violência no país, verificou elevados índices de homicídios, especialmente na população jovem, na faixa etária de 15 a 29 anos. Neste contexto, estudos realizados na temática de economia do crime ressaltam a desigualdade de renda, bem como, outros fatores de caráter social como o cerne do fenômeno da criminalidade. Sendo assim, este estudo visa verificar a influência das variáveis econômicas e sociais no fenômeno da criminalidade relacionada a homicídios nos municípios do estado do Paraná no período de 2008-2012. Os dados coletados referem-se aos crimes específicos de homicídios da população jovem nos municípios paranaenses identificados pelo estudo Mapa da Violência 2014 (WAISELFISZ, 2014). Posteriormente, a mensuração dos dados secundários coletados dar-se-á por meio do método de dados de painel de acordo com os municípios e períodos estabelecidos. Os resultados apurados mostram que os custos morais intrínsecos ao individuo são os principais determinantes nos crimes relacionados aos homicídios nos municípios paranaenses. Além disso, cabe ressaltar que as variáveis relacionadas à renda, como medida de desigualdade de renda e o rendimento médio, não apresentaram significância na criminalidade referente a homicídios nos territórios estudados. Palavras Chaves: Economia do crime. Homicídios. Variáveis econômicas e sociais. Abstract The Map of violence-the youth of Brazil 2014 (WAISELFISZ, 2014), a recent and comprehensive study on violence in the country, found high rates of homicide, especially on young people, ranging in age from 15 to 29 years. In this context, studies on the theme of crime economy underscore the income inequality, as well as other social factors as the core of the phenomenon of crime. Therefore, this study aims to verify the influence of economic and social variables in the phenomenon of criminality related to homicide in the municipalities of the State of Paraná in the period of 2008-2012. The data collected relate to specific crimes of murders of young population in the municipalities of Paraná identified by the study Map of violence 2014 (WAISELFISZ, 2014). Subsequently, the measurement of secondary data will be collected through the method of panel data in accordance with the municipalities and periods. The results obtained show that the intrinsic moral costs to the individual are the main determinants in homicide-related crimes in the municipalities of Paraná. In addition, it is noteworthy that the variables related to income, as a measure of inequality of income and the average income, showed no significance on crime related to homicide in the territories studied.

Immigration has become an increasingly important problem of the nations during the last half-century. This paper investigates the impact of immigration on crime rate by using a county-level panel data set from the United States of America (USA). County-level panel data for the period from 2012 to 2015 for 3142 counties are collected from the Census Bureau and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). The findings from the fixed effect approach (FE) show that any change in the percentage of domestic immigrants has impact on violent and property crimes but not murder. The estimates find a limited association between international migration and incidence of crime. Data show that international migration and domestic migration have significantly different impact on the incidence of violent and property crimes. Also, the results show that unemployment rate is an important economic factor that affects the number of crimes per 100,000 people.

We extend simple search models of crime, unemployment, and inequality to incorporate on-the-job search. This is valuable because, although simple models are useful, on-the-job search models are more interesting theoretically and more relevant empirically. We characterize the wage distribution, unemployment rate, and crime rate theoretically, and use quantitative methods to illustrate key results. For example, we find that increasing the unemployment insurance replacement rate from 53 to 65 percent increases unemployment and crime rates from 10 and 2.7 percent to 14 and 5.2 percent. We show multiple equilibria arise for some fairly reasonable parameters; in one case, unemployment can be 6 or 23 percent, and crime 0 or 10 percent, depending on the equilibrium.

Every day decisions are made by policy makers and managers in the Criminal Justice System which reflect implicit judgements about the relative seriousness of different crimes, or about the benefits of pursuing one approach to reducing crime rather than another. This study represents a first step towards making such judgements more explicit and in making sure they better reflect the available evidence on the impacts on society of different types of crime.

Cost of crime estimates can play an important role in helping the government to achieve the greatest impact on crime for the money spent. They can be used in both appraisal and evaluation of crime reduction policies, such as those in the Government’s evidence-based Crime Reduction Programme. They can help us to prioritise, focusing scarce resources on policies that have the biggest impact on harm caused by crime, rather than simply the number of crimes. Moreover, one of the two aims of the Criminal Justice System (CJS) in England and Wales is “to reduce crime and the fear of crime and their social and economic costs”. This study reports on progress towards a cost of crime measure that can be used to assess performance  against this aim. Figures used here represent the best available evidence, but nevertheless needs to be much improved. The aim of this report is to stimulate debate and improvements
in the evidence.

The economics-of-crime approach usually ignores the emotional cost and benefit of cheating. In this paper, we investigate the relationships between emotions, deception, and rational decision-making by means of an experiment on tax evasion. Emotions are measured by skin conductance responses and self-reports. We show that the intensity of anticipated and anticipatory emotions before reporting income positively correlates with both the decision to cheat and the proportion of evaded income. The experienced emotional arousal after an audit increases with the monetary sanctions and the arousal is even stronger when the evader’s picture is publicly displayed. We also find that the risk of a public exposure of deception deters evasion whereas the amount of fines encourages evasion. These results suggest that an audit policy that strengthens the emotional dimension of cheating favors compliance.

Using data from the FBI´s Uniform Crime Report program and differences in the timing of the reform’s introduction, we find that unilateral divorce caused an increase in violent crime rates of approximately 9 percent during the period 1965-1996. When we use age at the time of the reform as an additional source of variation, our findings suggest that young adult cohorts, who were children at the time of the reform, were particularly affected. Finally, we show evidence that a potential channel behind our findings is an increase in poverty and inequality among mothers who were “surprised” by the reform.

El propósito de este trabajo es exponer una explicación alternativa de la ineficacia de las políticas de represión a la oferta de dogas en el largo plazo centrada en el funcionamiento de las redes de tráfico de drogas y las ganancias esperadas crecientes de los narcotraficantes. Para ello, se resolvió y se simuló el modelo analítico propuesto por Raffo (2015b) para estructuras de redes irregulares, que se aproximan más a las redes de tráfico y distribución reales. Se prueba que una intensificación de la represión a la oferta de drogas puede conducir al resultado paradójico de incrementar los beneficios esperados agregados de las actividades ilegales, debido a que tiene un impacto heterogéneo sobre las ganancias individuales de los distintos traficantes.

The treatment of crime from a clinical point of vie w has been one of the aspects that has received the most attention from the field of tradi tional criminology. Nevertheless, research that includes social and economic features among the variables that exert influence on crime rates has become more and more relevant. This trend has surged as a result

no presente artigo, estimaram-se
estatisticamente os motivadores da criminalidade,
destacando a influência das variáveis renda e
desigualdade no número relativo de homicídios nos
estados brasileiros, para o período compreendido entre
1990 a 2007. Para isso, utilizou-se o estimador system
GMM (ARELLANO; BOVER, 1995; BLUNDELL;
BOND, 1998). Estimou-se que, tudo o mais constante,
a elevação da renda da parcela mais rica da população
tem um efeito positivo sobre o nível de homicídios,
enquanto a elevação da renda da parcela mais pobre da  população gerou um efeito oposto, isto é, o de redução  do nível de crimes terminados em morte. O modelo  sugeriu também, que o aumento da renda per capita,coeteris paribus, teve efeito positivo, enquanto os resultados encontrados para o índice de Gini não foi o  esperado pelo modelo teórico.

The aim of this article is to contrast empirically the presence of balloon effects affecting coca crops in the geographic territory corresponding to the main producer countries (Colombia Perú and Bolivia) during the period 1990-2009. The empirical methodology has been focused in the specification and estimation of a simultaneous equation system using a SUR model. The model attempts to explain the behaviour of the number of hectares cultivated with coca plants as a function of different variables. We conclude that there is empirical evidence supporting the presence of balloon effects at the Andean Region during the period of inquiry.

No dia 5 de outubro de 2016, o Supremo Tribunal Federal do Brasil decidiu que a prisão a condenados em segunda instância antes do trânsito em julgado não ferem o artigo 283 do Código do Processo Penal. O objetivo deste ensaio é avaliar, sem julgar a constitucionalidade da nova leitura jurídica, a hipótese de que a possibilidade de prisão a condenados em segunda instância foi uma decisão correta para reduzir o crime e o custo social''. Essa hipótese não é refutada sob os fundamentos da teoria econômica do crime.

Some people are more likely to be convicted of a crime than others. Some argue that differential arrest and conviction rates largely reflect differences in the rates at which groups commit crimes. Others argue that law enforcement agents discriminate against certain groups. In this paper, we set out a simple model of ‘statistical discrimination’ where law enforcement agents use information on personal characteristics to reduce search costs. We then use a novel procedure and data set to test whether or not police overuse information on individuals. We find that a person's characteristics do indeed influence the probability of appearing in court, while a number of forms of delinquent activity have no or even negative impacts in court appearances.

Purpose – The formal model of economics of crime developed by Becker is based on the assumption that a miscreant knows with certainty the benefit that accrues to a criminal activity. The purpose of this paper is to relax this assumption and establish a link between technical efficiency and commission of fishery crimes in a developing country where fishing techniques are rudimentary making catch volumes uncertain. Design/methodology/approach – The paper extends the neoclassical model of crime developed by Becker to account for catch uncertainties. The extended model predicts that, in addition to the risk and severity of punishment, less skilful fishermen are more likely to violate effort-limiting fishing regulations. Primary data were obtained through a survey of 258 artisanal fishermen from the Central and Western Regions of Ghana to test the predictions of the model. Findings – The prediction that less skillful fishers are more likely to violate effort-limiting fishing regulations is confirmed by the data. Other factors that determined the rate of violation of the fishing regulation include the risk of detection, severity of punishment, rate of time preference, age of the fisher, perceived legitimacy of the regulation and respect for religious norms. Social implications – If returns to illegal activities are uncertain, policies that improve the efficiency of potential violators may decrease the rate or extent of violation. Moreover, minimizing overfishing will improve livelihood and reduce poverty among fishers. Originality/value – The paper makes a novel attempt at linking efficiency (or skills) to violation of regulations.

This article revisits the Bowles-Garoupa model with regard to corruption and crime. We interpret additional costs inflicted on a caught corrupt officer as psychological costs, and we incorporate social norms into these psychological costs. In the Bowles-Garoupa model, the deterrent effect of raising fines on crime is weakened but is not perverse in the presence of corruption. Here, due to

Conjugando el enfoque de Ortiz con el de Mejía et al. este ensayo propone un nuevo modelo de narcotráfico y conflicto. En un marco de equilibrio general elabora una explicación del descenso del precio de la cocaína en las dos últimas décadas. El modelo muestra que la causa fundamental de esa tendencia es el aumento de la productividad de las actividades ilícitas, que ha contrarrestado los efectos de las políticas de represión de la oferta y el descenso registrado de la superficie de cultivos de coca.

Combining the approaches of Ortiz and Mejía et al., this paper proposes a new model of drug trafficking and conflict. In a general equilibrium framework, an explanation of the downward trend in the price of cocaine over the last two decades is developed. The model shows that the main factor causing this trend is the increase in productivity in the production of cocaine, which has counterbalanced the impact of the supply-side control policies and the decrease in the number of hectares of land planted with coca. [Keywords: illegal markets, drug trafficking, economic theory of contests, illegal armed groups; JEL: D51, C72, D74]

El propósito de este trabajo es analizar el microtráfico de drogas ilícitas para identificar y analizar los principales agentes, relaciones y procesos que determinan este tipo de actividades. Para ello se construye un modelo teórico que permite examinar las interacciones estratégicas en este fenómeno.

In this paper we analyze criminal deterrence in the presence of specific psychic costs
of punishments. We consider a dynamic model with three players, analyzing the choices
of a representative lawmaker, potential criminal and judge. In our setting the lawmaker
decides whether to introduce a fixed punishment enhancement above a chosen threshold of
crime level, depending on its popularity among the voters. In reaction, the judge, who is
influenced by her own preferences as well as the opinion of her peer group, might change
the probability of punishment, through affecting the standard of reasonable doubt. Our
results suggest that large discontinuous and mandatory increases in punishment can have
unintended effects that are contrary to the stated goal of such punishment enhancements.
In equilibrium, when either the judge or her peer group is “anti-punishment” enough, the
level of criminal activity might increase in response to the punishment enhancement. This
perverse effect is less likely to occur if there is a higher number of peer groups within the
“elite”, so that a greater extent of self-selection by judges can occur. Our results have
relevance for a number of areas outside the traditional criminal justice system as well, such
as special courts (such as ecclesiastical or military courts), or the strictness and enforcement
of regulations.