Instability of Oil Prices

Taylor-Couette is the flow of an incompressible fluid in the gap between two concentric cylinders and is used for varying effects to examine turbulent patterns in fluids. The Couette apparatus was developed by Maurice Couette in 1890 as a means for measuring the viscosity of a fluid at small imposed angular velocities of the cylinders. Our apparatus has a stationary outer cylinder and an inner one rotating with variable speed. Above a certain angular speed the initial rotary laminar flow becomes unstable and organizes itself into a stack of toroidal vortices (Taylor vortices). By suitably dying the water, the apparatus allows for the visualization of these vortices and the observation of their dynamical evolution with changing speed. The aim of the experiment is to compare the Critical Taylor number (i.e., the point at which the Taylor vortices just starts to develop) measured experimentally with the theoretical value and also to find flow patterns in fluids.

While the Great Recession and ensuing “Arab Spring” have taken a heavy toll on many nations in North Africa and the Middle East, yielding unprecedented volatility in country risk metrics, GCC member-states, with the exception of Bahrain, seemed relatively immune to economic decline. But the 2014 Saudi-Qatari Rift, which can be interpreted as a fight between the world’s leading oil and natural gas producers, could have deeper and longer lasting consequences than previous crises....

This study examined the impact of oil price on African stock markets. Using quarterly data from five selected oil producing countries with stock market presence, from Q1:2010 to Q4:2018, the study deployed dynamic panel analysis technique for a model comprising stock returns, real gross domestic product growth rate, exchange rate and OPEC basket price. From the findings, an adverse effect of oil prices existed on stock markets in Africa, attributable to fragmented and underdeveloped capital markets. Also, real gross domestic product growth rate had a positive impact on African stock markets, thus, confirming that economic growth positively influences stock returns in the African stock markets. The relationship exhibited by stock markets and the oil price has an immediate implication of shifting foreign direct investments in and away from stock markets in African oil-dependent economies. Based on the empirical findings, the study recommended that oil-exporting developing countries should devise strategies that can ensure stability in their capital markets by vigorously pursuing pro-growth policies irrespective of the shocks in oil price and other exogenous macroeconomic indicators.

Investment banking is one of many profitable areas for the large global banking groups. These days investment banking has become an integral part of not only the financial sector, but also various industries dealing in production, manufacturing and services. Acting as intermediaries between firms and capital markets, investment banks advise on various types of deals and help businesses to finance their projects, buy other companies and restructure their own. Especially during boom economic cycles, investment banking has become today an efficient provider of capital. Investment banking has also become an influential player for the oil and gas industry. The stable growth cycle has attracted significant streams of capital to the oil and gas sector. That has made oil and gas attractive for investment banking contributing to the availability of high-quality capital resources tailored for the sector until the end of 2015 when the period of instability of oil prices began.

An increase or decrease in crude oil price can both be pain and gain to the Nigerian’s economy simultaneously, this is because a strong link between the country’s budgetary operations and the happenings in the international oil market exists. Therefore, this research employed the restricted vector auto regression (VAR) technique, to empirically investigate into the impact of oil price volatility on Nigeria’s economy from 1981 to 2014.  Both the Augmented Dickey Fuller and Philip Perron unit root test, revealed that all the variables considered in the study are non-stationary at levels, but achieved stationary after estimating their first difference. Furthermore, majority of the variables were found to have long run relationships, justifying the need to estimate the model through the vector error correction model. The short run coefficient deduced from the VECM revealed that oil price shock price shock significantly impacts economic growth in the short run. Also, both the impulse response function and variance decomposition results confirmed the Dutch disease syndrome associated with Nigeria economy, real GDP negatively responded to oil price shock in all the periods despite the positive response of real government expenditure to oil shock in most period. This implies that economic growth is negatively affected in the long run, even though its impact on the real government expenditure seems to be positive mostly, the Pass-through effect it has on high inflation rate, declining exchange rate explains its negative effect on real GDP. In conclusion this study recommends that, for long run macroeconomic growth and performance there is a strong need for policy makers to concentrate on policy that will stabilize and strengthen the macroeconomic structure of the country with specific focus on; alternative sources of government revenue, aggressive savings from revenue proceeds in periods of oil booms, so as to withstand variations of oil shocks in future.
KEY WORDS: crude oil price, Volatility, economic growth, Vector Auto Regression

Crude oil price plays an important role in influencing the economies of crude oil exporting countries like Nigeria. This impact can either be negative or positive depending on whether the price of crude oil in the international market increases or decreases. Nigeria moved from managed float exchange rate regime in 1986 shortly after the adoption of Structural Adjustment Programme (in 1986) to a free float exchange rate regime. However, time series data have shown that oil price and exchange rate are correlated because a sudden change in the price of crude oil in the international market is always accompanied by a period of fluctuations in the exchange rate value of the currencies of oil exporting countries, especially when the economy is oil-export dependent. This study therefore is aimed at examining impact of oil price volatility on exchange rate in Nigeria. In doing this, annual time series data from 1986 to 2015 were utilized. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing procedures was used for this study because the variables were integrated of order I(0) and I(1) and granger causality test were used to estimate the exchange rate and causality models respectively. The exchange rate model showed a good fit, 99 percent of the variations in the dependent variable were explained by the independent variables and hypotheses tested at 1, 5 and 10 percent levels of significance. The results indicated a negative but significant relationship between volatility of crude oil prices and exchange rates in Nigeria in the long-run. In the short-run, however, this relationship was negative and statistically not significant within the period of study. The results also showed money supply (M2), gross domestic product (GDP) and lending interest rate as important determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria in the short and long runs. The granger causality result indicated there is no causality between oil price volatility and exchange rate. The study recommended urgent shift in the Nigerian economy from crude oil export to none-oil exports through the exploration of other solid minerals and even agricultural produce. It also recommended swift effort to increasing Nigeria's foreign exchange reserve in the short run so that it can serve as a shock absorber against crude oil price volatility that negatively affect the Naira exchange rate in the long run.

The PRIX index value for Q4 2016 is 44.09, based on input from 268 country analysts. This is the lowest PRIX index value ever registered, indicating a significant reduction in the flow of oil onto international markets and promoting an oil price rebound. The drop of 3.57 index points from Q3 to Q4 is the largest quarterly drop ever registered by the index, strengthening the prospects for a fall in global oil exports. It is the third quarter in a row that the index is significantly below a neutral value of 50, indicating a clear trend over time towards a weakening global supply side in oil markets. However, the impact on the oil price also depends on other factors, and in particular how much of the gap is filled by a rebound of US shale oil production. Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela are among the biggest exporters that have seen major drop s in their index values, pulling the global index downwards. At 93.75, Libya has the highest index value of all of the countries, pointing towards a possible end to its export problems. Iran has bounced back to a high index value of 85.00, meaning that the Iran Country Analysts continue to expect rapidly rising exports from Iran.

В статье исследуются факторы, определявшие инфляционные процессы в Таджикистане
в 2015–2016 гг. В отличие от других стран региона инфляция в Таджикистане не снижалась на фоне слабой ценовой конъюнктуры на мировых рынках энергоресурсов и продовольствия

This research paper reviewed literature on mitigation strategies that can be employed to reduce the impact of oil price volatility, specifically on the cost of electricity. The paper outlines Jamaica’s vulnerability to such volatility by highlighting the country’s large dependence on oil as an input in electricity production as well as the manner in which the commodity is sourced. Based on our findings, oil prices were very volatile over the period examined, as such the research focused on Hedging, Price Smoothing and Diversification as possible strategies that can be used to reduce the impact of such volatility. Given the country’s current hedge programme, the call option contracts executed by the government were examined. The strike prices quoted were compared to forecasted spot prices to determine the possible payoffs and profit if any. In the end none of the options were exercised as the strike prices were greater than the spot prices at maturity. Price smoothing was also examined using twelve (12), six (6) and three (3) months moving average method. Under the three methods we found that the longer the smoothing period the greater the impact was on the volatility as a result of optimum smoothing being demonstrated. Finally, portfolio theory was used to demonstrate diversification. We explored the financial theory that is used to build optimum portfolios and applied it to electricity generation by finding the most efficient way to use oil, coal, liquid natural gas and alternative energy as inputs in the production of electricity. In the end we concluded that these three strategies when executed effectively can achieve the desired results of the Jamaican Government, which is to significantly reduce the risks associated oil price volatility and its impact on electricity prices for consumers.

En el siglo XXI estamos viviendo un cambio trascendental en los mercados de la energía liderados por cambios en la demanda y oferta de petróleo, caracterizados por la alta volatilidad de precios y por una sobreoferta acompañada de una caída en los precios del petróleo desde el año 2014. Por una parte, la caída del precio del petróleo ocasionó que los países productores de occidente vieran hundidas sus inversiones en nuevos campos petroleros de esquisto explotados con fracturación hidráulica, y los mismo ocurrió con las inversiones de aguas profundas que necesitan alta tecnología, con un precio bajo del petróleo no son costeables este tipo de inversiones y esto causa fuetes afectaciones a empresas productoras, perforadoras, y demás servicios ligados al petróleo. El barril barato mantuvo acorralados a varios países altamente dependientes de la venta de petróleo. El bajo precio del crudo limita el poder de muchos productores, entre ellos México, Brasil, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela2, los países pertenecientes a la OPEP, todos ellos fuertemente dependientes de los recursos obtenidos con la exportación de crudo como materia prima principal en sus mercados exportadores; a mayor dependencia de los ingresos petroleros mayores serán los efectos para sus economías. Sumado a esto Rusia, también tuvo consecuencias, culpada debido a la guerra en Ucrania, y castigada por las sanciones internacionales y la fuga de capitales.

The subject of this paper examines the many risks that threatened the African coast and the Maghreb region, the explosion of disputes in the area and ultimately the fall of Muammar Gaddafi that has led to the instability of the entire coastal area, while the war in Libya adds more dismay to the scene and multiplies these risks [7]. The research reveals the indicators of how this space however, acts as a relatively safe haven for the network of international armed groups that find all the facilities needed for military training, recruiting fighters, carrying out assassinations, suicide bombings, suicide attacks and kidnappings, and building training camps. Additionally, the region is considered fragile in terms of security as illegal activities are easy to carry out, including arms trafficking, drugs, cars, and trafficking of persons. It is also possible to bury nuclear waste, form radical Islamist groups, illegal immigration, and money laundering. The paper attempt to analyze the instability in Libya and it's adverse effect on Africa's security and stability and factional roles being played by international actors. The study therefore concludes that, the contemporary problem of the lack of security in Libya negatively impacts the path to peace and stability and it seriously hinders the establishment of political and administrative institutions, which also contributes to the increase in crime and activities of radical groups in the region. The author among others recommend that the best outcome for Libya lies in reaching a negotiated power sharing agreement and a consensual political-economic way forward that could decisively 2 reverse the country's negative trajectory and put it on a pathway toward unity and prosperity.

The purpose of this research is to review of subsidies removal for fuel, implementation of new taxation system, and drawbacks of green investment as the impacts of falling oil price in Malaysia. To identify the impact of oil price falls and fully deregulated system of retail fuel product for consumers and how it affects the current consumer behaviors and purchasing pattern in Malaysia. Facts were analyzed and explored to understand what kind of impacts will effect on consumers when the price of oil continuously falling in the market. Results of the study showed that the falling oil price has negative and positive impact on consumers and businesses.

884 | P a g e 30 S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 6 w w w. g j a r. o r g ABSTRACT The subject of this article is the contemporary interconnection of instability in Nigeria. The contiguous nature and interconnected factors of social, political, ethnic, and marginalization campaign, in a new dimension, has bedevil Nigeria in the proportions never experienced before in the checkered history of this potentially great nation. The author thoroughly researches the activities of Boko Haram, the Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB)/Independent People of Biafra (IPOB), Niger Delta Avengers (NDA), and the Fulani herdsmen. The research reveals the indicators of Nigeria becoming a "breeding grounds of instability, mass migration, and murder", as well as reservoirs and exporter of terror in West Africa sub-region. The study concludes that, the existence of such a country, and the instability that it harbor, not only threatens the lives and livelihoods of its own people but endangers world peace. Ultimately incapable of projecting power and asserting authority within her own borders, leaving her territory governmentally empty. The author among others recommended the need for a National Conference to address the agitations of these groups (actors) or implement the report of already concluded National Conference and the need for the Federal Government to re-position her priorities in respect to the activities and responsibilities of the intelligence agencies in addressing this menace. 885 | P a g e 30 S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 6 w w w. g j a r. o r g

Empirical analyses have determined a correlation between high oil prices and the potential for interstate conflict and instability. This correlation has been proof for countries where oil exports represent more than the 10 per cent of the GDP. Between mid-2014 and the third quarter of 2017, oil prices have been constantly marking historical minimums. Framing this context, old and new diplomatic, political, financial, societal and geopolitical factors have been configuring an international ecosystem submerged into deep contradictions and radical and unexpected shifts. This paper assesses the impacts of a long period of low oil prices on regional stability and security by focusing on the Gulf region. The findings reveal that a long span of time with sliding oil prices has accentuated the risk of potential conflict and regional instability.

The current study explains how corruption, terrorism, political stability and oil price has an effect on on the Iraq stock exchange utilizing corruption perception index as a proxy of corruption, global terrorism index as proxy for terrorism, political stability and oil price with ISX60 index as proxy of stock market for the period (2005-2019) using Ordinary Least Square method. The results show that the level of corruption, terrorism activities and political stability coefficient is significantly positive with Iraq stock exchange. In contrast, the oil price coefficient is significantly negative with Iraq stock exchange, which means that lower levels of corruption, less terrorism activities and more stability in political system have strong influence on stock market development in Iraq. The study concludes that the explanatory variables are important for Iraq stock exchange. Hence, the study suggests the policy makers to develop stock market by implementing policies and strategies to overcome high level of corruption, terrorism activities especially after ISIS/ISIL announcement has been made public. There is a need for transparency and creating stable political environment through good governance practices in order to attract more foreign investment and promote economic development. Factors like terrorism and corruption make economic and political systems unstable and has an adverse effect on on Iraq's stock exchange performance.

In highly motorised countries, some sectors of the population own and use cars despite struggling to afford their running costs, and so may be particularly vulnerable to motor fuel prices increases, whether market-led or policy-driven. This paper proposes a novel, disaggregated approach to investigating vulnerability to such increases at the household level. We propose a set of indicators of 'car-related economic stress' (CRES), based on individual household level expenditure data for the UK, to identify which low-income households spend disproportionately on running motor vehicles, and to assess the depth of their economic stress. By subsequently linking the dataset to local fuel price data, we are able to model the disaggregated price elasticities of car fuel demand. This provides us with an indicator of each household's adaptive capacity to fuel price increases. The findings show that 'Low Income, High Cost' households (LIHC) account for 9% of UK households and have distinct socio-demographic characteristics. Interestingly, they are char-acterised by very low responses to fuel price increases, which may cause them to compromise on other important areas of their household expenditures. Simulations suggest that a 20% increase in fuel prices would substantially increase the depth, but not the incidence of CRES. Overall, the study sheds light on a sector of the population with high levels of vulnerability to fuel price increases, owing to high exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity. This raises challenges for social, environmental and resilience policy in the transport sector.

Presentation about oil prices given in Bruges at the College of Europe for the students of the promotion 2014-2015 (24.03.2015). This presentation briefly explains the drivers of oil prices, the recent mechanisms at play, and the possible future development of prices.

Аннотация. Проведенное исследование, основанное на количественном анализе данных по динамике цен на нефть и нестабильности, показывает, что затяжное падение цен на нефть ведет к практиче-ски неизбежному росту социально-политической нестабильности в нефтеэкспортирующих странах, а систематическое их повышение служит мощным фактором социально-политической стабилизации. Риски особенно вырастают при затяжном падении цен ниже уровня в 40 долларов за баррель, а при за-тяжном падении этих цен ниже уровня в 35 долларов очень заметный рост социально-политической нестабильности в странах-экспортерах нефти становится практически неизбежным. Исследование выполнено в рамках Программы фундаментальных исследований НИУ ВШЭ в 2016 году при поддержке Российского научного фонда (проект № 14-11-00634). Annotation. Our quantitative analysis suggests that prolonged decreases in oil prices tend to lead to an almost inevitable growth of social and political instability in oil-exporting countries, and their systematic increase serves as a powerful factor in the social and political stabilization. These risks grow especially during a protracted fall in prices below the level of 40 dollars per barrel, while with a protracted fall in prices below the level of 35 dollars a very marked increase in sociopolitical destabilization in oil-exporting countries becomes virtually inevitable. The analysis also reveals three-year time lags – though a strong steady drop in oil prices immediately leads to a marked increase in the risks of sociopolitical destabilization in oil-exporting countries, this risk becomes really high three years after that.