Edmund Chattoe-Brown
University of Leicester, Sociology, Faculty Member
- Sociology, Agent Based Simulation, Education, Social Movements, Political Sociology, Criminology, and 28 moreSecond-hand markets/items, Consumer Behavior, Consumer Research, Retailing, Consumer Psychology, used or second-hand clothing or RTW, Secondhand Clothing Culture, History, Psychology, Anthropology, Computer Science, Economics, Social Sciences, Complexity, Opinion Dynamics, Communication, Political Science, Games, Management, Functionalism, Social Evolution, Selectionist Approach, Genetic Programming, Genetic Algorithms, Agent-based modeling, Agent Based Modeling and Simulation, Agent-Based Computational Economics, and Diffusion of Innovationsedit
This article argues that Agent-Based Modelling, owing to its capabilities and methodology, has a distinctive contribution to make to the possibility of coherent social science prediction. The argument comes in four parts. The first... more
This article argues that Agent-Based Modelling, owing to its capabilities and methodology, has a distinctive contribution to make to the possibility of coherent social science prediction. The argument comes in four parts. The first involves identifying key elements of social science prediction by induction from real research across disciplines, thus avoiding a straw person approach to what prediction is. The second part illustrates Agent-Based Modelling using an example, showing how it provides a framework for coherent prediction analysis. As well as introducing the method to general readers, argument by example minimises generic discussion of Agent-Based Modelling and encourages prediction relevance. The third part deepens the analysis by combining concepts from the model example and real prediction research to examine distinctive contributions Agent-Based Modelling offers regarding two important challenges: Predictive failure and prediction assessment. The fourth part presents a novel approach-predicting models using models-illustrating again how Agent-Based Modelling adds value to social science prediction.
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Managing non-communicable diseases requires policy makers to adopt a whole systems perspective that adequately represents the complex causal architecture of human behaviour. Agent-based modelling is a computational method to understand... more
Managing non-communicable diseases requires policy makers to adopt a whole systems perspective that adequately represents the complex causal architecture of human behaviour. Agent-based modelling is a computational method to understand the behaviour of complex systems by simulating the actions of entities within the system, including the way these individuals influence and are influenced by their physical and social environment. The potential benefits of this method have led to several calls for greater use in public health research. We discuss three challenges facing potential modellers: model specification, obtaining required data, and developing good practices. We also present steps to assist researchers to meet these challenges and implement their agent-based model.
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Different disciplines and research methods take divergent views about effective explanation (for example about the importance of rationality in elucidating social behaviour or the explanatory status of quantitative correlations).... more
Different disciplines and research methods take divergent views about effective explanation (for example about the importance of rationality in elucidating social behaviour or the explanatory status of quantitative correlations). Unfortunately, particularly in interdisciplinary, mixed methods and policy research, these views are sometimes incompatible. This creates a challenge in systematically identifying elements for effective
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This article considers the implications of an approach to computer simulation called Agent Based Modelling for Process-Oriented Analysis. It argues that many theoretical and methodological debates found in the latter field can be... more
This article considers the implications of an approach to computer simulation called Agent Based Modelling for Process-Oriented Analysis. It argues that many theoretical and methodological debates found in the latter field can be effectively advanced by the former. The argument is presented and then extended using a ubiquitous Agent-Based Model proposed to improve understanding of ethnic residential segregation. The argument has three strands. The first is that theoretical and methodological debates are unlikely to progress unless they can be "cashed out" empirically. The second is that Agent-Based Modelling (and its distinctive methodology) have capabilities to do this that existing research methods lack and, in fact, that Agent-Based Models are a natural way to represent “social process” as apparently conceived by Process-Oriented Analysis. The third is that possibilities exist for productive synthesis between Agent-Based Modelling and Process-Oriented Analysis with the former clarifying, instantiating and perhaps even testing notions of process developed by the latter.
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How one builds, checks, validates and interprets a model depends on its 'purpose'. This is true even if the same model code is used for di erent purposes. This means that a model built for one purpose but then used for another needs to be... more
How one builds, checks, validates and interprets a model depends on its 'purpose'. This is true even if the same model code is used for di erent purposes. This means that a model built for one purpose but then used for another needs to be re-justified for the new purpose and this will probably mean it also has to be rechecked , re-validated and maybe even rebuilt in a di erent way. Here we review some of the di erent purposes for a simulation model of complex social phenomena, focusing on seven in particular: prediction, explanation, description, theoretical exploration, illustration, analogy, and social interaction. The paper looks at some of the implications in terms of the ways in which the intended purpose might fail. This analysis motivates some of the ways in which these 'dangers' might be avoided or mitigated. It also looks at the ways that a confusion of modelling purposes can fatally weaken modelling projects, whilst giving a false sense of their quality. These distinctions clarify some previous debates as to the best modelling strategy (e.g. KISS and KIDS). The paper ends with a plea for modellers to be clear concerning which purpose they are justifying their model against.
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In 1997, Robert Axelrod wondered in a highly influential paper "If people tend to become more alike in their beliefs, attitudes, and behavior when they interact, why do not all such differences eventually disappear?" Axelrod's question... more
In 1997, Robert Axelrod wondered in a highly influential paper "If people tend to become more alike in their beliefs, attitudes, and behavior when they interact, why do not all such differences eventually disappear?" Axelrod's question highlighted an ongoing quest for formal theoretical answers joined by researchers from a wide range of disciplines. Numerous models have been developed to understand why and under what conditions diversity in beliefs, attitudes and behavior can co-exist with the fact that very often in interactions, social influence reduces differences between people. Reviewing three prominent approaches, we discuss the theoretical ingredients that researchers added to classic models of social influence as well as their implications. Then, we propose two main frontiers for future research. First, there is urgent need for more theoretical work comparing, relating and integrating alternative models. Second, the field suffers from a strong imbalance between a proliferation of theoretical studies and a dearth of empirical work. More empirical work is needed testing and underpinning micro-level assumptions about social influence as well as macro-level predictions. In conclusion, we discuss major roadblocks that need to be overcome to achieve progress on each frontier. We also propose that a new generation of empirically-based computational social influence models can make unique contributions for understanding key societal challenges, like the possible effects of social media on societal polarization.
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Historically, over the long run, evolutionary approaches have struggled in sociology with great effort being expended (sometimes purely rhetorically rather than scientifically) to criticise them or, even more radically, to rule them out... more
Historically, over the long run, evolutionary approaches have struggled in sociology with great effort being expended (sometimes purely rhetorically rather than scientifically) to criticise them or, even more radically, to rule them out of court altogether as "not sociological". This approach implies that such approaches are optional to the sociological project. By contrast, this article takes an opposing position and argues that sociology has no real alternative to evolutionary approaches in at least two key areas. First and foremost, we need an approach that can explain social organisation without relying on implausible levels of deliberation (while still compatible with the, sometimes successful, exercise of reason). Secondly, we need an approach that is "properly" historical in being able to engage with both macro (structural) change and genuine novelty. This article not only discusses what is needed and why but also illustrates how such an approach could work using an Agent-Based Model (hereafter ABM).
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We present an Agent-Based Model (herea er ABM) for a pharmaceutical supply chain operating under conditions of weak regulation and imperfect information, exploring the possibility of poor quality medicines and their detection. Our... more
We present an Agent-Based Model (herea er ABM) for a pharmaceutical supply chain operating under conditions of weak regulation and imperfect information, exploring the possibility of poor quality medicines and their detection. Our interest is to demonstrate how buyers can learn about the quality of sellers (and their medicines) based on previous successful and unsuccessful transactions, thereby establishing trust over time. Furthermore, this network of trust allows the system itself to evolve to positive outcomes (under some but not all circumstances) by eliminating sellers with low quality products. The ABM we develop assumes that rational and non-corrupt agents (wholesalers, retailers and consumers) learn from experience and adjust their behaviour accordingly. The system itself evolves over time: under some-but not all-circumstances, sellers with low-quality products are progressively eliminated. Three distinct states of the supply chain are observed depending on the importance of trust built up from past experience. The "dynamic" state is characterised by a low level of trust leading to a continually changing system with new drugs introduced and rejected with little regard to quality. The "frozen" state arises from high levels of reliance on past experience and locks the supply chain into a suboptimal state. The "optimising" state has moderate reliance on past experience and leads to the persistence of suppliers with good quality; however, the system is still "invadable" by better quality drugs. Simulation results show that the state reached by the system depends strongly on the precise way that trust is established: Excessive levels of trust make it impossible for new, improved treatments to be adopted. This highlights the critical need to understand better how personal experience influences consumer behaviour, especially where regulation is weak and for products like medicines whose quality is not readily observable.
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As its starting point, this article investigates claims published in Qualitative Inquiry by Ceglowski, Bacigalupa, and Peck (2011) that Early Childhood Research Quarterly censored qualitative research. Unfortunately they assert rather... more
As its starting point, this article investigates claims published in Qualitative Inquiry by Ceglowski, Bacigalupa, and Peck (2011) that Early Childhood Research Quarterly censored qualitative research. Unfortunately they assert rather than demonstrate political bias against qualitative research, fail to show that its publication in Early Childhood Research Quarterly has actually declined and ignore alternate hypotheses compatible with their data. After breaking their argument into parts, I find their censorship claims completely unsupported by evidence. However, this article has two larger aims. The first is to show how mistaking hypotheses for evidence, arguing unconvincingly from quantitative data, and failing to consider alternative interpretations of evidence weaken qualitative research, lowering its credibility within social science. The second is to consider the wider academic ramifications of publishing a peer-reviewed journal article that totally fails to support its claims. Based on these concerns, the article offers some practical advice to avoid the negative outcomes demonstrated by the publication of Ceglowski, Bacigalupa, and Peck and considers the scientific implications of this rebuttal to their claims having been rejected previously by Qualitative Inquiry.
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This article has two goals. Firstly, it shows how a relatively novel technique (Agent Based Modelling, hereafter ABM) can integrate different data types that are often used only in separate strands of research (interviews, experiments and... more
This article has two goals. Firstly, it shows how a relatively novel technique (Agent Based Modelling, hereafter ABM) can integrate different data types that are often used only in separate strands of research (interviews, experiments and surveys). It does this by comparing a well-known ABM of attitude dynamics with an alternative model using data from surveys and experiments. Secondly, the article explains ABM methodology and why it is important to the distinctiveness of ABM as a research method. In particular, the ramifications of differing approaches to ABM calibration and validation are discussed using the two different ABM as examples. The article concludes by showing how ABM might provide a progressive research strategy for integrating different data types and thus different disciplines in attitude research.
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Although Agent Based Models (hereafter ABM) are now regularly reported in sociology journals, explaining the approach, describing models and reporting results leaves little opportunity to examine wider implications of ABM for sociological... more
Although Agent Based Models (hereafter ABM) are now regularly reported in sociology journals, explaining the approach, describing models and reporting results leaves little opportunity to examine wider implications of ABM for sociological practice. This article uses an established ABM (the Schelling model) for this. The first part argues that ABM integrates qualitative and quantitative data distinctively, provides novel tools for understanding social causes and offers a significantly different perspective on theory building. The second part shows how the emerging ABM methodology is compatible with existing sociological practice while undermining several criticisms of ABM perceived to limit its sociological relevance.
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In a 2007 article in Sociology, Gezelius offers an account of information exchange between Norwegian fishermen using game theoretic analysis of ethnographic data. In this article, I consider what his analysis reveals about using game... more
In a 2007 article in Sociology, Gezelius offers an account of information exchange between Norwegian fishermen using game theoretic analysis of ethnographic data. In this article, I consider what his analysis reveals about using game theory in sociology. To be effective, this must combine systematic use of ethnography with effective application of game theory. In addition, the methods of simulation and evolutionary game theory are important tools to explain rich sets of norms and practices observable ethnographically.
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This note discusses two challenges to simulating the social process of science. The first is developing an adequately rich representation of the underlying Data Generation Process which scientific progress can "learn". The second is how... more
This note discusses two challenges to simulating the social process of science. The first is developing an adequately rich representation of the underlying Data Generation Process which scientific progress can "learn". The second is how to get effective data on what, in broad terms, the properties of the "future" are. Paradoxically, with due care, we may learn a lot about the future by studying the past.
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From a sociological perspective, Rational Choice Theory neglects an important question: How do agents come to conceptualise choices as they do? In particular, agents not only communicate about their choices and resulting outcomes but also... more
From a sociological perspective, Rational Choice Theory neglects an important question: How do agents come to conceptualise choices as they do? In particular, agents not only communicate about their choices and resulting outcomes but also draw attention to options unconsidered by others. This paper presents an agent-based simulation in which different kinds of information about choices are transmitted. This approach also provides a concrete model for certain aspects of ‘‘hegemonic discourse’’. In standard Rational Choice where options are common knowledge, all actors with the same preferences should make the same decisions. By contrast if information is transmitted socially, the concerns of a majority may reduce the ability of a minority to choose options appropriate to them even without any exercise of coercion or discrimination.
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Many arguments for and against functionalism have revolved around logical and methodological issues, discouraging attempts to develop testable functionalist theories. This paper takes a different approach, arguing that the problem with... more
Many arguments for and against functionalism have revolved around logical and methodological issues, discouraging attempts to develop testable functionalist theories. This paper takes a different approach, arguing that the problem with sociological functionalism is not its logic of explanation but the absence of appropriate techniques for formalizing functionalist theories. The solution presented – agent-based simulation – is illustrated by a case study: a functionalist account of church survival.The case study suggests that there is nothing wrong with the logic of functionalism properly formalized, illustrates how simulation can enable testing of functionalist explanations and suggests why existing sociological methods have not proved fruitful for this task. In the light of new techniques like simulation, the current neglect of functionalism may no longer be justified.
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This paper raises two difficulties with an earlier contribution to this Journal (Coles 2001) and proposes solutions. While we strongly support his suggestion that neglect of Social Network Analysis (SNA) has hampered criminology, and... more
This paper raises two difficulties with an earlier contribution to this Journal (Coles 2001) and proposes solutions. While we strongly support his suggestion that neglect of Social Network Analysis (SNA) has hampered criminology, and welcome his opening up of the debate, we argue that Coles has failed to make an important distinction between types of SNA data collection and presented a flawed ‘theoretical framework’. In the first section of this article, we highlight the difference between egocentric and non-egocentric network data collection. In the former, respondents are asked about their own network ties, while in the latter, they are also asked what they know about the ties of others. It transpires that egocentric data suit quantitative surveys while non-egocentric data harmonize with ethnography. While Coles endorses ‘qualitative’ SNA, his failure to make a clear distinction between egocentric and non-egocentric data means that he confuses criticisms appropriate to two different data collection techniques. Many problems with quantitative data collection do not apply to qualitative techniques. In the second section of the article, we argue that the ‘theoretical framework’ which Coles presents is problematic. He discusses a number of extant findings about the structure of non-criminal networks but fails to support the claim that they can be applied to criminal networks. Such support could either be empirical—showing that the two types of networks were alike—or model based—showing that relevant social interaction mechanisms actually produce similar structural properties in networks. In the absence of either kind of evidence, however, there are ethnographic reasons to expect that criminal networks will have both distinctive generative mechanisms and structural properties. These reasons are discussed in the context of examples provided by Coles. The final section of the paper uses computer simulation to address the two problems raised. The first model shows the conditions under which collection of qualitative (non-egocentric) and quantitative (egocentric) data will produce a more accurate picture of the underlying network. The second (outline) model shows how simulation might link ethnographic data on social interaction to the aggregate properties of networks. The conclusion discusses the consequences of this approach for novel research and criminal intelligence.
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This paper clarifies and develops some of the arguments put forward by W.G. Runciman in his 1998 Sociology article ‘The Selectionist Paradigm and Its Implications for Sociology’. It intends to support his basic claim that mechanisms... more
This paper clarifies and develops some of the arguments put forward by W.G. Runciman in his 1998 Sociology article ‘The Selectionist Paradigm and Its Implications for Sociology’. It intends to support his basic claim that mechanisms analogous to (but not synonymous with) natural selection are an important way of understanding both continuity and change in social systems. Nonetheless, it questions the emphasis of his discussion and extends his analysis of two substantive points. The argument proceeds in two stages. The paper begins by examining the many objections that Runciman rebuts and showing that many of them do not need rebuttal but are simply irrelevant to the selectionist paradigm. By irrelevant, I mean that the objections are logically flawed or simply do not apply to the selectionist paradigm as Runciman defines it. The purpose of this part of the paper is to sharpen the debate, so that attention can subsequently be focused on a smaller number of relevant objections that remain. The remainder of the paper attempts to open that debate by discussing the two relevant objections that appear most forceful. It attempts to show that, on closer examination, both objections are mistaken. The first objection is that human deliberation makes any analogy with random mutation in biology untenable. The paper argues that in fact selection and deliberation are complementary. Selection will continue to act on social practices to the extent that our models of the world are imperfect and our practices have unintended consequences. The second objection is that while selectionism is interesting, it may be irrelevant to sociological practice. The last part of the paper provides a more detailed analysis of an example used by Runciman, the task of explaining differing levels of male lethal violence across societies. This analysis suggests that while Runciman’s ‘discursive’ selectionist analysis (like functionalism) can generate suggestive hypotheses, appropriate techniques will be needed to transform those hypotheses into models which sociological research can ultimately test. It is argued that multi-agent computer simulation is a particularly suitable technique for representing evolutionary processes in social systems thus allowing selectionism to be put on the same sort of footing as other ‘middle range’ explanations like game theory and social network analysis.
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This paper uses interview data from retired households to inform a discussion about economic models of consumption. It is divided into two parts. In the first part, the economic models are described. The paper then discusses several... more
This paper uses interview data from retired households to inform a discussion about economic models of consumption. It is divided into two parts. In the first part, the economic models are described. The paper then discusses several different types of reasons for finding them unhelpful in explaining consumption. The second part of the paper considers the role of 'middle range' theories in developing plausible models of household behaviour. Phenomena which the interviews suggest are important in explaining consumption, such as time allocation, the labour supply decision, the ubiquitous durability of goods and the structure of the household, are not typically supported by middle range theory in current models. Without the constraints of such theory, it is very hard to distinguish models providing genuine explanation from those that merely fit the data. The latter part of the paper also discusses aspects of a new middle range theory of consumption suggested by the interviews.
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The theory, principles and practice of multi-agent systems is typically characterised as a computational and engineering discipline, since it is through the medium of computational systems that artificial agent systems are most commonly... more
The theory, principles and practice of multi-agent systems is typically characterised as a computational and engineering discipline, since it is through the medium of computational systems that artificial agent systems are most commonly expressed. However, most definitions of agency draw directly on non-computational disciplines for inspiration. During the 1999 UK workshop on multi-agent systems, UKMAS'99, we invited four speakers to address the conceptualisation of multi-agent systems from their perspective as non-computer scientists. This paper presents their arguments and summarises some of the key points of discussion during the panel.
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This paper considers several implications of the fact that charity shops are part of the wider class of second-hand markets. This approach attempts to complement research on other features of charity shops like the distinctive nature of... more
This paper considers several implications of the fact that charity shops are part of the wider class of second-hand markets. This approach attempts to complement research on other features of charity shops like the distinctive nature of voluntary work and the identities of charity shop consumers. It is argued that the functioning of second-hand markets highlights some limitations in traditional models of consumer behaviour. This gives charity shops (and second-hand markets in general) an important role in developing more effective theories of consumption. At the same time, there are more practical reasons for being aware of the limitations of existing theories. In particular, marketing for charity shops will be ineffective if their functions are misunderstood. The paper also illustrates how these theoretical insights have practical implications.
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This paper reports findings from twenty-six interviews conducted with retired households about the way they make budgeting decisions. The data are presented with three objectives. First, to describe the way that households carry out the... more
This paper reports findings from twenty-six interviews conducted with retired households about the way they make budgeting decisions. The data are presented with three objectives. First, to describe the way that households carry out the process of budgeting. Secondly, to consider the implications for economic and sociological theories of consumption. Thirdly, to construct a framework for understanding budgetary decision making which organises the data usefully and places current theories in a clearer relationship to each other. It is found that personal budgeting has several characteristics which are poorly represented in existing theories of consumption: the strong relation between time and money in decision making, the importance of durable goods, the social rather than rational nature of household decision making and the need for budgeting strategies to deal with uncertainty. A five-level framework is presented which shows how different
resources and methods are used by decision makers to manage their money.
resources and methods are used by decision makers to manage their money.
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This paper attempts to illustrate the importance of a coherent behavioural interpretation in applying evolutionary algorithms like Genetic Algorithms and Genetic Programming to the modelling of social processes. It summarises and draws... more
This paper attempts to illustrate the importance of a coherent behavioural interpretation in applying evolutionary algorithms like Genetic Algorithms and Genetic Programming to the modelling of social processes. It summarises and draws out the implications of the Neo-Darwinian Synthesis for processes of social evolution and then discusses the extent to which evolutionary algorithms capture the aspects of biological evolution which are relevant to social processes. The paper uses several recent papers in the field as case studies, discussing more and less successful uses of evolutionary algorithms in social science. The key aspects of evolution discussed in the paper are that it is dependent on relative rather than absolute fitness, it does not require global knowledge or a system level teleology, it avoids the credit assignment problem, it does not exclude Lamarckian inheritance and it is both progressive and open ended.
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This paper considers the meaning of the term "simulation" as it is commonly used in economics. A distinction is made between the relatively mechanical task of simulating a pre-existing mathematical model and the far more difficult task of... more
This paper considers the meaning of the term "simulation" as it is commonly used in economics. A distinction is made between the relatively mechanical task of simulating a pre-existing mathematical model and the far more difficult task of building a simulation of some social process. It is argued that economists almost always use simulation in the first sense and, consequently, find it rather unimportant. Some economic objections to simulation are criticised, because they depend on a restricted understanding of the term, which has not been justified itself. Within a broader understanding of simulation, many of these objections can be shown to be unfounded. In addition, the paper describes a number of phenomena which are more amenable to simulation, in the broader sense, than to the usual type of mathematical economic modelling. The final part of the paper considers one particular, methodologically based, objection to simulation, that the process of developing deductive economic theories has a superior claim to "scientific rigour". It is argued that, even taking the economic definition of rigour as given, simulation is actually more rigorous than mathematical modelling in several important respects.
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This paper presents a preliminary "structural" model of a simplified educational system. This model is used to analyse different strategies for enhancing the engagement with ABM in the education system. Another novel feature of the model... more
This paper presents a preliminary "structural" model of a simplified educational system. This model is used to analyse different strategies for enhancing the engagement with ABM in the education system. Another novel feature of the model is that it considers both formal and informal channels of education (not just classroom teaching but also blogs for example). Subject to its assumptions, the ABM supports a pre-existing view that uptake may be enhanced by making teaching available earlier in the education process. Analysis also suggests that a combination of formal and informal learning may be more effect that the simple addition of each effect. The paper also considers the promotional and intellectual benefits of modelling educational systems.
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Agent-Based Modeling is a research method that represents theories of social behavior as computer programs of a particular kind, rather than narratives (as ethnography does) or equations (as regression models do). Like existing research... more
Agent-Based Modeling is a research method that represents theories of social behavior as computer programs of a particular kind, rather than narratives (as ethnography does) or equations (as regression models do). Like existing research methods in sociology (both qualitative and quantitative) it can be applied throughout the discipline and offers advantages for certain research questions. In particular, the approach is referred to as agent-based because the computer program unambiguously represents interactions between heterogeneous social actors while also explicitly determining their aggregate simulated consequences. This distinguishes Agent-Based Modeling from existing quantitative approaches in sociology where the relationship between aggregate associations and individual agency is often unclear. It also distinguishes the method from existing qualitative approaches that, while investigating individuals and their interactions, have no systematic techniques for establishing their aggregate consequences. Given this capability, the methodology of Agent-Based Modeling has a distinctive logic. Agent-Based Models are calibrated using data on individual behavior (for example using ethnography or laboratory experiments) and then the computer program generates simulated aggregate data. This can then be compared with equivalent real data for validation. It is the independence of these two activities that provides Agent-Based Modeling with its distinctive claim to explanatory power. The explicitly represented link between individual and aggregate respects the complexity of social systems, the phenomenon in which individuals and their simple interactions may produce surprisingly counter-intuitive aggregate outcomes. Agent-Based Models are thus particularly suitable for investigating sociological issues involving heterogeneous actors, diverse cognitive processes and social systems mediated by entities operating between the level of the individual and the aggregate (like schools and churches).
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This paper consists of two main parts. After an introduction, the first part briefly considers the way that historical processes have been represented in ABM to date. This makes it possible to draw more general conclusions about the... more
This paper consists of two main parts. After an introduction, the first part briefly considers the way that historical processes have been represented in ABM to date. This makes it possible to draw more general conclusions about the limitations of ABM in dealing with distinctively historical (as opposed to merely dynamic) processes. The second part of the paper presents a very simple ABM in which three such distinctively historical processes are analysed. These are the possible significance of unique individuals-so called Great Men, the invention and spread of social innovations from specific points in time and the creation of persistent social structures (also from specific points in time). The object of the paper is to advance the potential applicability of ABM to historical events as understood by historians (rather than anthropologists or practitioners of ABM.)
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After an introduction, the abstract idea of evolution is analysed into four processes which are illustrated with respect to a simple evolutionary game. A brief history of evolutionary ideas in the social sciences is given, illustrating... more
After an introduction, the abstract idea of evolution is analysed into four processes which are illustrated with respect to a simple evolutionary game. A brief history of evolutionary ideas in the social sciences is given, illustrating the different ways in which the idea of evolution has been used. The technique of GA is then described and discussed including: the representation of the problem and the composition of the initial population, the fitness function, the reproduction process, the genetic operators, issues of convergence, and some generalisations of the approach including endogenising the evolution. GP and CS are also briefly introduced as potential developments of GA. Four detailed examples of social science applications of evolutionary techniques are then presented: the use of GA in the Arifovic “cobweb” model, using CS in a model of price setting developed by Moss, the role of GP in understanding decision making processes in a stock market model and relating evolutionary ideas to social science in a model of survival for “strict” churches. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the prospects and difficulties of using the idea of biological evolution in the social sciences.
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Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) have great potential when it comes to explaining the interactions of heterogeneous actors in complex social environments: the primary task of the social sciences. In this chapter, I shall argue that one factor... more
Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) have great potential when it comes to explaining the interactions of heterogeneous actors in complex social environments: the primary task of the social sciences. In this chapter, I shall argue that one factor hindering the realisation of this potential is the neglect of systematic data use and appropriate data collection techniques. I will also suggest that the ability to collect data for particular MAS may serve as a novel and effective
heuristic device for design purposes. The discussion will centre on a concrete example: the properties of MAS to model innovation diffusion.
heuristic device for design purposes. The discussion will centre on a concrete example: the properties of MAS to model innovation diffusion.
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Those developing simulations of social phenomena have largely confined themselves to representing a quite narrow range of sociological theories, ones that are broadly realist. This chapter is an attempt to identify the issues that would... more
Those developing simulations of social phenomena have largely confined themselves to representing a quite narrow range of sociological theories, ones that are broadly realist. This chapter is an attempt to identify the issues that would need to be addressed in order to widen the scope of simulations to encompass other approaches to social theorising. It focuses particularly on the requirements of social constructionist theories which are probably more common in current sociology than realist ones are. Much the same is increasingly the case in social psychology.
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This chapter begins by defining computer simulation briefly and distinguishing it from two related techniques. The next section discusses existing uses of computer simulation in understanding family practices. Three main approaches can be... more
This chapter begins by defining computer simulation briefly and distinguishing it from two related techniques. The next section discusses existing uses of computer simulation in understanding family practices. Three main approaches can be identified: microsimulation for demography and policy analysis, rule-based models in anthropology and agent-based models of the emergence of social complexity. I will use these three cases to discuss the implications of the computer simulation approach in more detail. In particular, I shall try to show how simulation avoids the excessive simplifying assumptions of other formal approaches like Rational Choice while managing to make effective use of rich qualitative data. In doing this, I hope to suggest that formality and excessive abstraction need not be synonymous. In the following section, I will list aspects of family behaviour that seem essential to plausible simulation and argue that current research explores these only in a fragmentary way. The next section illustrates the requirements of an integrated simulation of family behaviour using the theory of gendered moral rationalities (Duncan and Edwards 1999) as a case study.
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A hierarchy of interacting levels exists in the “traditional” scientific method, moving from particular data to general methodology. Scientific method, like software development, can be seen as a continuous process of adjustment between... more
A hierarchy of interacting levels exists in the “traditional” scientific method, moving from particular data to general methodology. Scientific method, like software development, can be seen as a continuous process of adjustment between these levels. This paper discusses the relationship between the hierarchy of scientific method and different computational techniques referred to as “simulation” in economics. It argues that different types of simulation can usefully be classified according to those aspects of the scientific hierarchy which they take as given or exogenous. This classification helps to put disputes about the value of simulation on a surer footing and also goes some way to explaining the tendency for simulation to be adopted most readily where it does not challenge the theoretical and methodological core of economics.
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This article describes an application of the genetic algorithm to the modelling of an economic process, the interaction of competing firms in a market. It distinguishes instrumental applications of evolutionary algorithms, which are... more
This article describes an application of the genetic algorithm to the modelling of an economic process, the interaction of competing firms in a market. It distinguishes instrumental applications of evolutionary algorithms, which are designed to perform a given task as quickly and efficiently as possible, from descriptive applications, which are intended to enhance our understanding of the process which they describe. It argues that, not surprisingly, descriptive and instrumental applications of evolutionary computation have different perspectives and requirements for success. It illustrates these differences by describing some difficulties that arise in modelling economic interaction using an evolutionary algorithm. It also suggests some distinctions that may be useful in avoiding these difficulties. The paper uses the work of Arifovic on modelling the convergence of interacting firms to Rational Expectations Equilibrium as a basis for discussion.
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This paper considers the meaning of the term “simulation” as it is commonly used in economics. A distinction is made between the relatively mechanical task of simulating a pre-existing mathematical model and the far more difficult task of... more
This paper considers the meaning of the term “simulation” as it is commonly used in economics. A distinction is made between the relatively mechanical task of simulating a pre-existing mathematical model and the far more difficult task of building a simulation of some social process. It is argued that economists almost always use simulation in the first sense and, consequently, find it rather unimportant. Some economic objections to simulation are criticised, because they depend on a restricted understanding of the term, which has not been justified itself. Within a broader understanding of simulation, many of these objections can be shown to be unfounded. In addition, the paper describes a number of phenomena which are more amenable to simulation, in the broader sense, than to the usual type of mathematical economic modelling. The final part of the paper considers one particular, methodologically based, objection to simulation, that the process of developing deductive economic theories has a superior claim to “scientific rigour”. It is argued that, even taking the economic definition of rigour as given, simulation is actually more rigorous than mathematical modelling in several important respects.
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This is a near final draft version, differing in small ways (and format) from the final published version.
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In a 2007 article in Sociology, Gezelius offers an account of information exchange between Norwegian fishermen using game theoretic analysis of ethnographic data. In this article, I consider what his analysis reveals about using game... more
In a 2007 article in Sociology, Gezelius offers an account of information exchange between Norwegian fishermen using game theoretic analysis of ethnographic data. In this article, I consider what his analysis reveals about using game theory in sociology. To be effective, this must combine systematic use of ethnography with effective application of game theory. In addition, the methods of simulation and evolutionary game theory are important tools to explain rich sets of norms and practices observable ethnographically.
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Here is an idealised view of academic publishing, regardless of whether it was, in fact, ever like this. Publishers (and particularly academic publishers) would reject books that were clearly incompetent. Once books had met certain... more
Here is an idealised view of academic publishing, regardless of whether it was, in fact, ever like this. Publishers (and particularly academic publishers) would reject books that were clearly incompetent. Once books had met certain minimum standards of literacy and interest, ...
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Review of:Manzo, Gianluca (ed.) (2014) Analytical Sociology: Actions and Networks (Wiley Series in Computational and Quantitative Social Science). WileyBlackwell: Hoboken, NJ
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Here is an idealised view of academic publishing, regardless of whether it was, in fact, ever like this. Publishers (and particularly academic publishers) would reject books that were clearly incompetent. Once books had met certain... more
Here is an idealised view of academic publishing, regardless of whether it was, in fact, ever like this. Publishers (and particularly academic publishers) would reject books that were clearly incompetent. Once books had met certain minimum standards of literacy and interest, ...
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Questions of values, ontologies, ethics, aesthetics, discourse, origins, language, literature, and meaning do not lend themselves readily, or traditionally, to equations, probabilities, and models. However, with the increased adoption of... more
Questions of values, ontologies, ethics, aesthetics, discourse, origins, language, literature, and meaning do not lend themselves readily, or traditionally, to equations, probabilities, and models. However, with the increased adoption of natural science tools in economics, anthropology, and political science-to name only a few social scientific fields highlighted in this volume-quantitative methods in the humanities are becoming more common. The theory of complexity holds significant promise for better understanding social and human phenomena based on interactions among the participating "agents," whatever they may be: a thought, a person, a conversation, a sentence, or an email. Such systems can exhibit phase transitions, feedback loops, self-organization, and emergent properties. These dynamic systems lend themselves naturally to the kind of analysis made possible by models and simulations developed with complex science tools. This volume offers a tour of quantitative analyses, models, and simulations of humanities and social science phenomena that have been historically the purview of qualitative methods.
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Social Capital Modeling in Virtual Communities: Bayesian Belief Network Approache
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Attempts to control the current pandemic through public health interventions have been driven by predictions based on modelling, thus bringing epidemiological models to the forefront of policy and public interest. It is almost inevitable... more
Attempts to control the current pandemic through public health interventions have been driven by predictions based on modelling, thus bringing epidemiological models to the forefront of policy and public interest. It is almost inevitable that there will be further pandemics and controlling, suppressing and ameliorating their effects will undoubtedly involve the use of models. However, the accuracy and usefulness of models are highly dependent on the data that are used to calibrate and validate them. In this article, we consider the data needed by the two main types of epidemiological modelling (compartmental and agent-based) and the adequacy of the currently available data sources. We conclude that at present the data for epidemiological modelling of pandemics is seriously deficient and we make suggestions about how it would need to be improved. Finally, we argue that it is important to initiate efforts to collect appropriate data for modelling now, rather than waiting for the next ...
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WG Runciman (Walter Garrison Runciman, 3rd Viscount Runciman of Doxford, Commander of the Order of the British Empire and Fellow of the British Academy) is an historical and comparative sociologist and social theorist. Along with Anthony... more
WG Runciman (Walter Garrison Runciman, 3rd Viscount Runciman of Doxford, Commander of the Order of the British Empire and Fellow of the British Academy) is an historical and comparative sociologist and social theorist. Along with Anthony Giddens and Margaret Archer, he is ...
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This paper considers the meaning of the term “simulation” as it is commonly used in economics. A distinction is made between the relatively mechanical task of simulating a pre-existing mathematical model and the far more difficult task of... more
This paper considers the meaning of the term “simulation” as it is commonly used in economics. A distinction is made between the relatively mechanical task of simulating a pre-existing mathematical model and the far more difficult task of building a simulation of some social process. It is argued that economists almost always use simulation in the first sense and, consequently, find it rather unimportant. Some economic objections to simulation are criticized, because they depend on a restricted understanding of the term, which has not itself been justified. Within a broader understanding of simulation, many of these objections can be shown to be unfounded. In addition, the paper describes a number of phenomena which are more amenable to simulation, in the broader sense, than to the usual type of mathematical economic modelling. The final part of the paper considers one particular, methodologically based, objection to simulation, that the process of developing deductive economic theories has a superior claim to “scientific rigour”. It is argued that, even taking the economic definition of rigour as given, simulation is actually more rigourous than mathematical modelling in several important respects.
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Research Interests: Sociology, Computer Science, Social Sciences, Mixed Methods, Management Science, and 12 morePolitical Attitudes, Attitudes (Social Psychology), Attitude change, Social Influence, Agent Based Modelling, Netlogo, Optimal Distinctiveness Theory, Beliefs and attitudes, Agent based modeling, Experimental Data, Uncategorized, and Relative agreement model
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Research Interests: Sociology, Computational Sociology, Criminology, Psychology, Computer Science, and 14 moreEconomics, Epistemology, Social Networks, Research Methodology, Interdisciplinarity, Agent Based Simulation, Social Network Analysis (SNA), Sensitivity Analysis, Agent Based Modelling, Agent based modeling, Assertion, Uncategorized, Subject Matter, and Social Methodology
In the natural sciences and engineering, sensitivity analysis is a standard method for verifying simulation models. The term “sensitivity analysis” is generally used to describe a family of methods for altering the input values of the... more
In the natural sciences and engineering, sensitivity analysis is a standard method for verifying simulation models. The term “sensitivity analysis” is generally used to describe a family of methods for altering the input values of the model in various ways and such analyses are included in the validation step of almost all technical simulations (Law and Kelton 1991, pp. 310ff). Nevertheless, a short review of simulation textbooks and other studies reveals that the term is currently used as a general catch all for diverse techniques: there is no precise definition and no special methodology currently associated with this term. A cursory inspection of recent work suggests that the situation is even worse in the social sciences.4 Most social simulators still omit any form of sensitivity analysis. (However, there are exceptions, mostly recent: Axtell et al 1996, Harrison and Carroll 1991, Latane 1996, Macy 1991, Saam 1996 and Saam and Reiter, submitted.) There is also a definite lack of methodological literature on sensitivity analysis in the social sciences.
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It is acknowledged in physics that science progresses by interplay of theory (specifically models) and data. In his research, Galam regularly demonstrates this interplay as productive. In social science, unfortunately, matters are less... more
It is acknowledged in physics that science progresses by interplay of theory (specifically models) and data. In his research, Galam regularly demonstrates this interplay as productive. In social science, unfortunately, matters are less straightforward. Researchers disagree about when comparing models with data is appropriate. This article makes two novel contributions to such comparison using Opinion Dynamics (hereafter OD) models. The first is, sidestepping the appropriateness debate, to demonstrate, if you wished, how you could compare existing ODs model with data. Although this comparison is made (though still surprisingly infrequently) with novel models, it has not to my knowledge been attempted with existing ones (which raise distinctive issues). The second novel contribution addresses meaningfulness in such comparisons. There is a risk that fitting models to data may imply that a correspondence is meaningful when it isn’t. The modelling challenge is assessing such meaningfulne...
This article proposes (and demonstrates the effectiveness of) a new strategy for assessing the results of epidemic models which we designate reproduction. The strategy is to build an independent model that uses (as far as possible) only... more
This article proposes (and demonstrates the effectiveness of) a new strategy for assessing the results of epidemic models which we designate reproduction. The strategy is to build an independent model that uses (as far as possible) only the published information about the model to be assessed. In the example presented here, the independent model also follows a different modelling approach (agent-based modelling) to the model being assessed (the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine compartmental model which has been influential in COVID lockdown policy). The argument runs that if the policy prescriptions of the two models match then this independently supports them (and reduces the chance that they are artefacts of assumptions, modelling approach or programming bugs). If, on the other hand, they do not match then either the model being assessed is not provided with sufficient information to be relied on or (perhaps) there is something wrong with it. In addition to justifyin...
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Since this is new venture, we need to establish conventions. Since JASSS has been running since 1998 (twenty years!) it is reasonable to argue that something un-cited in JASSS throughout that period has effectively been forgotten by the... more
Since this is new venture, we need to establish conventions. Since JASSS has been running since 1998 (twenty years!) it is reasonable to argue that something un-cited in JASSS throughout that period has effectively been forgotten by the ABM community. This contribution by Grémy is actually a single chapter in a book otherwise by Boudon (a bibliographical oddity that may have contributed to its ne- glect. Grémy also appears to have published mostly in French, which may also have had an effect. An English summary of his contribution to simulation might be another useful item for RofASSS.) Boudon gets 6 hits on the JASSS search engine (as of 31.05.18), none of which mention simulation and Gremy gets no hits (as does Grémy: unfortunately it is hard to tell how online search engines “cope with” accents and thus whether this is a “real” result).
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In the recent discussions about the role of ABM and COVID, there seems to be an emphasis on the purely technical dimensions of modelling. This obviously involves us “playing to our strengths” but unfortunately it may reduce the... more
In the recent discussions about the role of ABM and COVID, there seems to be an emphasis on the purely technical dimensions of modelling. This obviously involves us “playing to our strengths” but unfortunately it may reduce the effectiveness that our potential policy contributions can make. Here are three contextual aspects of policy for consideration to provide a contrast/corrective.
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Under the traditional productivist approach, government support payments were the main policy instrument for changing output and sustaining particular kinds of farming. Now that the political agenda has shifted towards the more ambiguous... more
Under the traditional productivist approach, government support payments were the main policy instrument for changing output and sustaining particular kinds of farming. Now that the political agenda has shifted towards the more ambiguous tasks of "producing countryside" and protecting the environment, both the policy instruments and the appropriate models of farm household motivation need rethinking. The European experience shows that payments for adopting new practices with environmental impacts (for example nitrate reduction) have met with widely differing levels of success, suggesting that non-financial considerations play a significant part in the adoption decision. This paper presents a simulation model, based on a novel integration of qualitative and quantitative data, in which economic, social and information transmission effects all have an impact on the farm household decision to accept payment for carrying out a particular farming practice. This complexity leads to diverse " modes of failure " resulting in non-adoption of a particular measure. It suggests that different policy instruments may be more or less effective in remedying these failures and that changing payment levels may not always be the most effective solution. The paper begins with a brief description of the background to the research project, describes the assumptions of the model and then discusses the results and their implications.
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This paper describes a basic simulation of the processes by which different sorts of information may be transmitted between farmers after the introduction of a new AEM. The simulation combines three important strands of innovation... more
This paper describes a basic simulation of the processes by which different sorts of information may be transmitted between farmers after the introduction of a new AEM. The simulation combines three important strands of innovation diffusion research: the modelling of heterogeneous individual decision making from which aggregate adoption levels emerge (rather than simply fitting a mathematical function to aggregate data) and the explicit representation of both spatial relations between farms and networks of relationships ...
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This article argues that Agent-Based Modelling, owing to its capabilities and methodology, has a distinctive contribution to make to the possibility of coherent social science prediction. The argument comes in four parts. The first... more
This article argues that Agent-Based Modelling, owing to its capabilities and methodology, has a distinctive contribution to make to the possibility of coherent social science prediction. The argument comes in four parts. The first involves identifying key elements of social science prediction by induction from real research across disciplines, thus avoiding a straw person approach to what prediction is. The second part illustrates Agent-Based Modelling using an example, showing how it provides a framework for coherent prediction analysis. As well as introducing the method to general readers, argument by example minimises generic discussion of Agent-Based Modelling and encourages prediction relevance. The third part deepens the analysis by combining concepts from the model example and real prediction research to examine distinctive contributions Agent-Based Modelling offers regarding two important challenges: Predictive failure and prediction assessment. The fourth part presents a novel approach-predicting models using models-illustrating again how Agent-Based Modelling adds value to social science prediction.
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This paper presents a preliminary “structural” model of a simplified educational system. This model is used to analyse different strategies for enhancing the engagement with ABM in the education system. Another novel feature of the model... more
This paper presents a preliminary “structural” model of a simplified educational system. This model is used to analyse different strategies for enhancing the engagement with ABM in the education system. Another novel feature of the model is that it considers both formal and informal channels of education (e.g. not just classroom teaching but also blogs). Subject to its assumptions, the ABM supports a pre-existing view that uptake may be enhanced by making teaching available earlier in the education process. Analysis also suggests that a combination of formal and informal learning may be more effect than the simple addition of each effect. The paper also considers the promotional and intellectual benefits of modelling educational systems.
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Review: Complexity and the Human Experience: Modeling Complexity in the Humanities and Social Sciences
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This article considers the implications of an approach to computer simulation called agent-based modeling for process-oriented analysis. It argues that many theoretical and methodological debates found in the latter field can be... more
This article considers the implications of an approach to computer simulation called agent-based modeling for process-oriented analysis. It argues that many theoretical and methodological debates found in the latter field can be effectively advanced by the former. The argument is presented and then extended using a ubiquitous agent-based model proposed to improve understanding of ethnic residential segregation. The argument has three strands. The first is that theoretical and methodological debates are unlikely to progress unless they can be "cashed out" empirically. The second is that agent-based modeling (and its distinctive methodology) has capabilities to do this that existing research methods lack and, in fact, that agent-based models are a natural way to represent "social process" as apparently conceived by process-oriented analysis. The third is that possibilities exist for productive synthesis between agent-based modeling and process-oriented analysis with the former clarifying, instantiating, and perhaps even testing notions of process developed by the latter.
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One significant argument against the application of evolutionary models to the behaviour of firms has been the absence of an obvious “reproduction” mechanism, by which successful enterprises can increase the proportion of their... more
One significant argument against the application of evolutionary models to the behaviour of firms has been the absence of an obvious “reproduction” mechanism, by which successful enterprises can increase the proportion of their behavioural genotypes in the population solely to their own benefit. Interestingly, there is class of enterprises, relatively new in the history of industrial capitalism, which fits the traditional evolutionary metaphor rather effectively. (It could be argued that this form of organisation has itself evolved in the same way that sexual reproduction is believed to be an evolved mechanism which speeds up genetic mixing.) These are firms with multiple branches (including franchises) that have a single brand image, set of working practices, range of products and so on. If such firms establish a successful mix of attributes, the resulting profits allow them to construct new branches and, in some cases, buy out less successful chains, as Burger King were able to buy out Wimpy. Thus, in a real sense, they are replicating their behavioural genotypes in the population of competing branches. Furthermore, there is a direct link between profit (defined as cash surplus above costs) and “reproductive fitness” which is often neglected in evolutionary models. The most obvious examples of multi-branch enterprises are fast food chains. This paper presents a simulation in which firms with spatially located branches compete for customers. Firms receive feedback about the performance (fitness) of individual branches, and decide what working practices, products and other features of each branch to retain and which to modify. Matters are complicated by the existence of scale economies - which provide an incentive for firms to standardise practices across branches - and variations in consumer preferences (including spatial variations) - which provide an incentive not to standardise unduly. In addition, there are significant costs connected with changing some aspects of branches, such as decor. The simulation is co-evolutionary in two senses. Firstly, each firm may modify its behaviour not only in the light of feedback from its own strategies, but from the strategies of other firms. Secondly, customers are sensitive not only to the attributes of individual branches, but to the possibilities of the market as a whole. Thus, if only one chain offers a vegetarian option, it will capture not only the vegetarian market, but also those who have a casual preference for vegetarian food. However, if no chains offer a vegetarian option, consumers will lack any expectation of such products and only the most devout vegetarians will avoid the market altogether. Different learning mechanisms are compared, not all of which are evolutionary. For example, one simple strategy would be to take the most profitable branch and enforce its strategy in all branches. Clearly, this would not necessarily work well if there was significant variation in the preferences of consumers. It would also suppress the ability to experiment with the market. The purpose of the paper is to specify a simulation in which evolutionary and non-evolutionary mechanisms of learning can receive a “fair comparison”. Because consumers are modelled independently, measures of consumer surplus, costs and profits can be used to compare different adaptation mechanisms in a consistent way.
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This chapter consists of two main parts. After an introduction, the first part briefly considers the way that historical processes have been represented in ABM to date. This makes it possible to draw more general conclusions about the... more
This chapter consists of two main parts. After an introduction, the first part briefly considers the way that historical processes have been represented in ABM to date. This makes it possible to draw more general conclusions about the limitations of ABM in dealing with distinctively historical (as opposed to merely dynamic) processes. The second part of the chapter presents a very simple ABM in which three such distinctively historical processes are analysed. These are the possible significance of unique individuals—the so-called Great Men, the invention and spread of social innovations from specific points in time and the creation of persistent social structures (also from specific points in time). The object of the chapter is to advance the potential applicability of ABM to historical events as understood by historians (rather than anthropologists or practitioners of ABM.)
Research Interests: History, Sociology, Social Change, Computer Science, Technology, and 15 moreHistorical Sociology, Social Networks, Social Sciences, Methodology, Social Simulation, Agent Based Modelling, computer science Artificial intelligence, Agent based modeling, Science Technology, Institutional Evolution, Historical Explanation, Trade Networks, Uncategorized, Innovation, and Book trade
Multi-Agent simulation has great potential when it comes to explaining the subtle interactions of heterogeneous actors in complex social systems. In particular, it moves away from a correlative approach based on quantitative variables and... more
Multi-Agent simulation has great potential when it comes to explaining the subtle interactions of heterogeneous actors in complex social systems. In particular, it moves away from a correlative approach based on quantitative variables and towards a processual approach based on social mechanisms. This paper uses a recent EU funded research project (IMAGES) as a case study to explore the difficulties in building multi-agent models of social systems. The context is the simulation of innovation diffusion where the “innovation” is receiving money for new ecological farming practices. Three crucial difficulties are identified. Firstly, the absence of suitable elicitation and collection techniques for dynamic data. Secondly, the absence of adequately rigorous theories in the existing social science literature. Finally, the prevailing expectation that the purpose of Multi-Agent simulation is to enhance the predictive power of social science. (This goal will not be realistic until the first ...
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This paper reports on a study of the way that people make decisions about the allocation of income between categories of expenditure, such as food, rent and leisure. The most common (economic) approach to formalising budgetary decision... more
This paper reports on a study of the way that people make decisions about the allocation of income between categories of expenditure, such as food, rent and leisure. The most common (economic) approach to formalising budgetary decision processes is deductive: a theory is proposed and its implications are then explored. However, it is also possible to develop formal models inductively and this is the approach used here. Starting from interviews with a sample of eight full time postgraduate students, we constructed the simulation of budgetary decisionmaking which is presented in this paper. The budgetary practices described by subjects were formalised as a set of rules for each respondent. The budgetary behaviour produced by these rules was then explored for different potential incomes and expenditure levels. It was shown that the existence of even quite limited foresight in agents enabled them to balance their budgets despite the fact that potential out goings considerably exceeded income. The paper also discusses some implications of the inductive approach to model building and the contrast between economic theory and the interview data. It concludes by outlining some directions for future research.
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This piece arose from a Lorentz Center (Leiden) workshop on Agent Based Simulations for Societal Resilience in Crisis Situations held from 27 February to 3 March 2023... more
This piece arose from a Lorentz Center (Leiden) workshop on Agent Based Simulations for Societal Resilience in Crisis Situations held from 27 February to 3 March 2023 (https://www.lorentzcenter.nl/agent-based-simulations-for-societal-resilience-in-crisis-situations.html (https://www.lorentzcenter.nl/agent-based-simulations-for-societal-resilience-in-crisis-situations.html)). During the week, our group was tasked with discussing requirements for Agent-Based Models (hereafter ABM) that could be useful in a crisis situation. Here we report on our discussion and propose some key challenges for platform support where models deal with such challenges.
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In the recent discussions about the role of ABM and COVID, there seems to be an emphasis on the purely technical dimensions of modelling. This obviously involves us “playing to our strengths” but unfortunately it may reduce the... more
In the recent discussions about the role of ABM and COVID, there seems to be an emphasis on the purely technical dimensions of modelling. This obviously involves us “playing to our strengths” but unfortunately it may reduce the effectiveness that our potential policy contributions can make. Here are three contextual aspects of policy for consideration to provide a contrast/corrective.
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The initiative presented below arose from a Lorentz Center workshop on Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Evidence using Social Simulation (https://www.lorentzcenter.nl/lc/web/2019/1116/in- fo.php3?wsid=1116) (8-12 April 2019,... more
The initiative presented below arose from a Lorentz Center workshop on Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Evidence using Social Simulation (https://www.lorentzcenter.nl/lc/web/2019/1116/in- fo.php3?wsid=1116) (8-12 April 2019, Leiden, the Netherlands). At the beginning of this workshop, the attenders divided themselves into teams aiming to work on specific challenges within the broad domain of the workshop topic. Our team took up the challenge of looking at “Rigour, Transparency, and Reuse”. The aim that emerged from our initial discussions was to create a framework for augmenting rigour and transparency (RAT) of data use in ABM when both designing, analysing and publishing such models.
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On one level this is a straightforward request. The earliest convincing example I have found is Hägerstrand (1965, p. 381) an article that seems to be undeservedly neglected because it is also the earliest example of a simulation I have... more
On one level this is a straightforward request. The earliest convincing example I have found is Hägerstrand (1965, p. 381) an article that seems to be undeservedly neglected because it is also the earliest example of a simulation I have been able to identify that demonstrates independent calibration and validation (Gilbert and Troitzsch 2005, p. 17).
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Since this is new venture, we need to establish conventions. Since JASSS has been running since 1998 (twenty years!) it is reasonable to argue that something un-cited in JASSS throughout that period has effectively been forgotten by the... more
Since this is new venture, we need to establish conventions. Since JASSS has been running since 1998 (twenty years!) it is reasonable to argue that something un-cited in JASSS throughout that period has effectively been forgotten by the ABM community. This contribution by Grémy is actually a single chapter in a book otherwise by Boudon (a bibliographical oddity that may have contributed to its ne- glect. Grémy also appears to have published mostly in French, which may also have had an effect. An English summary of his contribution to simulation might be another useful item for RofASSS.) Boudon gets 6 hits on the JASSS search engine (as of 31.05.18), none of which mention simulation and Gremy gets no hits (as does Grémy: unfortunately it is hard to tell how online search engines “cope with” accents and thus whether this is a “real” result).
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This article argues that if being a professional sociologist entails too many unproductive intellectual commitments (which appear to have accumulated quietly over time as commitments do) then the result may be fatigue and loss of... more
This article argues that if being a professional sociologist entails too many unproductive intellectual commitments (which appear to have accumulated quietly over time as commitments do) then the result may be fatigue and loss of enthusiasm. By analogy with the recent informal movement for decluttering (reducing the commitments entailed by material possessions for greater psychological wellbeing) the article lists some candidates for unproductive commitments in sociology and explores the nature of their potentially demotivating effects. The candidates discussed (though there are probably others) are subjective defense of arbitrary disciplinary boundaries, unjustified anti-scientism, valorizing social theory, giving unsolicited advice, resistance to novelty, failing to resist enforced publication and engaging in political apologia. The article also considers the ways that such unproductive activities can feed off each other and be exacerbated by institutional pressures in neoliberal academia. The aim of the article is to help professional sociologists to reinvigorate themselves while recognizing the considerable restrictions and pressure under
which they now operate.
which they now operate.
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The authors of this report believe that modelling can lead to better policy making. Models can help estimate the size of a problem, understand what factors might be important in determining the spread of diseases or other health problems,... more
The authors of this report believe that modelling can lead to better policy making. Models can help estimate the size of a problem, understand what factors might be important in determining the spread of diseases or other health problems, assess which prevention strategies result in the greatest gain and shape policy questions, future data collection or research. (It can do this by simulating how patterns of behaviour and harm may occur, identifying the greatest uncertainties and determining what evidence may be required to test simulation models.)
We present three examples of models – statistical, system-dynamic, and agent-based – intended to illustrate the potential utility and benefits of modelling for understanding the dynamics of drug use, the harms associated with it, and its use in supporting policy making. The examples are not exhaustive. Each has limitations and each presents specific recommendations. But in general they demonstrate that modelling can generate useful insights even over a very constrained timescale.
We present three examples of models – statistical, system-dynamic, and agent-based – intended to illustrate the potential utility and benefits of modelling for understanding the dynamics of drug use, the harms associated with it, and its use in supporting policy making. The examples are not exhaustive. Each has limitations and each presents specific recommendations. But in general they demonstrate that modelling can generate useful insights even over a very constrained timescale.
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A model of the decision process mixing rational anticipation and social influences is proposed to study the dynamics of agri-environmental measure adoption by farmers in Breadalbane ESA. The decisions of the farmers are based on uncertain... more
A model of the decision process mixing rational anticipation and social influences is proposed to study the dynamics of agri-environmental measure adoption by farmers in Breadalbane ESA. The decisions of the farmers are based on uncertain anticipations related to different criteria (revenue, independence, nature). These anticipations can be the result of a rational evaluation or a feeling or impression gathered from interactions with other farmers and institutional actors. The model simulates emissions and receptions of messages about these anticipations. Different states of the decision are defined, taking into account the anticipations and the motivations of the farmers. The model is linked to different sources of data: interviews with farmers and institutional actors and data on the population of farms. The different parameters are fitted with the data of participation to ESA meetings and ESA adoption.
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This paper describes a simulation of individual budgetary decision making, that is, the way that people allocate income between categories of expenditure, such as food, rent and leisure. The simulation has been designed inductively, using... more
This paper describes a simulation of individual budgetary decision making, that is, the way that people allocate income between categories of expenditure, such as food, rent and leisure. The simulation has been designed inductively, using interviews with students and the recently retired as the primary sources of data. This approach can be contrasted with the deductive design of economic models which investigate the implications of a set of axioms developed by the theorist. The interviews suggested a number of places where economic models of consumption and the actual behaviour of interviewees diverge. In practice, information and planning are both costly and unreliable. Furthermore, the costs and benefits of consumption, which form the basis of “rational” decision, are hard to assess.
Interviewees described a number of individual responses to these difficulties. However, this paper also discusses a complementary possibility, that processes of social evolution have some role to play in the development of successful decision procedures. In addition to individual learning, agents may imitate, more or less imperfectly, both the actions and the techniques of other agents. If this results in an improved ability to meet budgetary goals, these techniques and actions will be perpetuated, otherwise, they will not.
The paper describes the basic simulation and its modification to a simple evolutionary process. Developing the simulation in this way also draws together several different aspects of the behaviour described by interviewees, and provides a common framework for discussing concepts such as learning, socialisation and the consumption of “lifestyles”.
Interviewees described a number of individual responses to these difficulties. However, this paper also discusses a complementary possibility, that processes of social evolution have some role to play in the development of successful decision procedures. In addition to individual learning, agents may imitate, more or less imperfectly, both the actions and the techniques of other agents. If this results in an improved ability to meet budgetary goals, these techniques and actions will be perpetuated, otherwise, they will not.
The paper describes the basic simulation and its modification to a simple evolutionary process. Developing the simulation in this way also draws together several different aspects of the behaviour described by interviewees, and provides a common framework for discussing concepts such as learning, socialisation and the consumption of “lifestyles”.
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This poster describes a simulation investigating the interaction and effectiveness of individual and social learning in producing workable budgeting strategies. It is motivated by an attempt to understand interview data about money... more
This poster describes a simulation investigating the interaction and effectiveness of individual and social learning in producing workable budgeting strategies. It is motivated by an attempt to understand interview data about money management practices collected from a sample of recently retired households. Social learning proves to be very important when agents are boundedly rational and also leads to the emergence of differentiation in simulated 'lifestyles'.
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From the perspective of lived experience, it is " obvious " that much of what we do involves moving in a more or less planned way from place to place (home, work, cinema and shopping centre for example). For face-to-face interactions at... more
From the perspective of lived experience, it is " obvious " that much of what we do involves moving in a more or less planned way from place to place (home, work, cinema and shopping centre for example). For face-to-face interactions at least, these locations and their timings constrain whom we may meet and thus who is likely to constitute our overlapping social networks through time (though in addition, we can remain in contact through non face to face means and deliberately " construct " meetings at particular times and places – a dinner party for example.) Part of the challenge of realising this face valid insight from lived experience is that relevant theories and data have been fragmented across a range of research methods and substantive disciplines (Social Network Analysis – hereafter SNA, time diary research, geography – and in particular so called time or time-space geography, transport research, psychological research on friendship/small groups and visualization techniques. This paper presents a basic Agent Based Model (hereafter ABM) that demonstrates how these diverse insights can be integrated and, when combined with the distinctive methodology of ABM, produces testable "interdisciplinary" models of spatial friendship networks. For the purposes of this paper, the most important novelty of the methodology is the separation of calibration and validation processes. A set of data based assumptions about how individuals meet and plan their time (based on time diary and transport data for example) is "unfolded" by the computer programme to generate a set of dynamic behaviours that include evolving network structure. The methodology indicates that if this simulated network structure resembles real network data then this may be because the ABM has captured aspects of the real social process underlying the observed patterns. This can be distinguished from statistical approaches in which validation (model "fit") cannot really be carried out separately from calibration because model parameters typically do not correspond to things that can be independently observed or accessed by questioning.
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Under the traditional productivist approach, government support payments were the main policy instrument for changing output and sustaining particular kinds of farming. Now that the political agenda has shifted towards the more ambiguous... more
Under the traditional productivist approach, government support payments were the main policy instrument for changing output and sustaining particular kinds of farming. Now that the political agenda has shifted towards the more ambiguous tasks of "producing countryside" and protecting the environment, both the policy instruments and the appropriate models of farm household motivation need rethinking. The European experience shows that payments for adopting new practices with environmental impacts (for example nitrate reduction) have met with widely differing levels of success, suggesting that non-financial considerations play a significant part in the adoption decision. This paper presents a simulation model, based on a novel integration of qualitative and quantitative data, in which economic, social and information transmission effects all have an impact on the farm household decision to accept payment for carrying out a particular farming practice. This complexity leads to diverse " modes of failure " resulting in non-adoption of a particular measure. It suggests that different policy instruments may be more or less effective in remedying these failures and that changing payment levels may not always be the most effective solution. The paper begins with a brief description of the background to the research project, describes the assumptions of the model and then discusses the results and their implications.
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Beginning with a working definition of emergence, this presentation compares the tasks of trying to understand physical and social systems. I argue that in fact many "physical" systems turn out to have important social components that... more
Beginning with a working definition of emergence, this presentation compares the tasks of trying to understand physical and social systems. I argue that in fact many "physical" systems turn out to have important social components that fundamentally change their nature. In consequence, applied techniques that attempt to identify regularities in systems, presuming them to be purely physical, are likely to fail. The presentation concludes with a brief example of a simulation that explicitly represents the interaction of social actors and the emergence of macroscopic behaviour. The presentation concludes by discussing the implications of this kind of simulation for applied techniques of pattern recognition.