The gender gap pervades many core aspects of political science. This article reports that females continue to be under-represented as authors and reviewers in European Union Politics and that these differences have only diminished... more
The gender gap pervades many core aspects of political science. This article reports that females continue to be under-represented as authors and reviewers in European Union Politics and that these differences have only diminished slightly since the second half of the 2000s. We also report that females use more cautious and modest language in their correspondence with the editorial office, but do not find evidence that this under-studied aspect of the gender gap affects the outcome of the reviewing process. The authors discuss some measures European Union Politics and other journals might take to address the imbalance.
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The ways in which countries have reacted to financial crises varies considerably. While income inequality has grown in many EU member states after the Great Recession, some countries such as the United States have experienced a... more
The ways in which countries have reacted to financial crises varies considerably. While income inequality has grown in many EU member states after the Great Recession, some countries such as the United States have experienced a significant increase in wealth inequality. A number of countries, by contrast, was able to keep these inequities at bay. We argue that the impact of financial crises on inequality differ between the type and severity of these economic shocks and that sovereign debt and exchange rate rather than banking crises increase the economic inequities. We examine the diverse income and wealth inequality effects to more than 50 financial crises across the OECD member states from 1970 to 2010. The empirical evidence supports our conjecture of different distributive effects of varying types of crises.
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Realism and liberalism disagree over the source of bargaining power in international relations. Realists believe that the success of a negotiator is a linear function of the capabilities that its home state possesses. Liberals stress the... more
Realism and liberalism disagree over the source of bargaining power in international relations. Realists believe that the success of a negotiator is a linear function of the capabilities that its home state possesses. Liberals stress the crucial importance of either the relative salience a country attaches to a contested issue or the importance negotiating governments have to attribute to powerful domestic actors. In this essay, I clarify some of the channels through which these different facets of power influence multilateral negotiations. To examine the competing theoretical claims in international negotiations, I rely on the canonical contribution to the formal theory of bargaining, the Nash Bargaining Solution (NBS), as the unifying analytical framework. I distinguish several causal mechanisms through which varying forms of resources affect the negotiation outcomes. The formal analysis points out severe limitations of the thesis that different forms of bargaining power are fungi...
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Research Interests: Sociology, Comparative Politics, International Relations, Epistemology, Decision Making, and 13 moreInternational organizations, Political Science, Institutional Change, European Union, Studies, Criticism, Institutional Development, Expected Utility, Social System, International Organizations, Fuzzy Set, International Collaboration, and Prediction Accuracy
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A widespread perception of the European Union (EU) boils down to the reproach that political decisions made at the European level are no matter of great moment. The meetings of the European Council, which regularly gets together to tackle... more
A widespread perception of the European Union (EU) boils down to the reproach that political decisions made at the European level are no matter of great moment. The meetings of the European Council, which regularly gets together to tackle the organizations' most pressing problems, are especially considered to be a waste of time and money. In order to save their reputation and to avoid upsetting the markets, the prime ministers of the EU member states often resort to diplomatic hot air in case the summit ended in failure and ...
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Der Weg von wissenschaftlichen «Zauberworten» «Qualitatives Wachstum» als Expertenvorschlag, Leitmotiv der Regierungs¬ richtlinien und Orientierungspunkt in der Sektoralplanung Wie weit der Einfluss von Beratern gehen kann, lässt sich mit... more
Der Weg von wissenschaftlichen «Zauberworten» «Qualitatives Wachstum» als Expertenvorschlag, Leitmotiv der Regierungs¬ richtlinien und Orientierungspunkt in der Sektoralplanung Wie weit der Einfluss von Beratern gehen kann, lässt sich mit einem einfachen Modell am Experten¬ bericht «Qualitatives Wachstum» verfolgen. Die wissenschaftlich erhärtete Forderung nach einer res¬ sourcenschonenden Steigerung der Lebensqualität hat der Bundesrat nämlich als «Leitmotiv» für die gegenwärtige Legislatur übernommen. Es zeigt sich, dass sich sehr allgemeine Empfehlungen nur ver¬ einzelt in den Richtlinien widerspiegeln und in der Sektoralplanung beispielsweise der Aussenpolitik kaum als direkter Orientierungspunkt dienen können. Politische Kraft kommt breit angelegten Ex¬ pertisen und hochaggregierten Planungsstichworten trotzdem zu, falls sie vom Grundkonsens getra¬ gen werden. La portée de l'influence des conseillers peut être démontrée par un simple modèle issu du rapport d'experts sur...
One of the key problems in post-war societies is the identification of schemes that convince former combatants to hand in their weapons. Political economy models suggest that economic incentives increase the opportunity costs of fighting,... more
One of the key problems in post-war societies is the identification of schemes that convince former combatants to hand in their weapons. Political economy models suggest that economic incentives increase the opportunity costs of fighting, while security studies rather suggest that the refusal to disarm follows from the anarchy in which the ex-soldiers have to operate. This article contrasts these two perspectives, which we trace back to the work of J. Stuart Mill and Thomas Hobbes, in a multi-level examination of more than 7000 interviews with combatants during one of the more peaceful episodes in the Somalian civil war. The statistical analysis supports the Hobbesian worldview at the individual level of analysis. Personal experiences in the form of high levels of traumatization (PTSD), the length of time spend in the armed group and the type of military unit to which a fighter belonged, shape the attitude of combatants on disarmament in a negative way. Combatants who have actual co...
The European Union, the United Nations, and the United States frequently use economic sanctions. This article introduces the EUSANCT Dataset—which amends, merges, and updates some of the most widely used sanctions databases—to trace the... more
The European Union, the United Nations, and the United States frequently use economic sanctions. This article introduces the EUSANCT Dataset—which amends, merges, and updates some of the most widely used sanctions databases—to trace the evolution of sanctions after the Cold War. The dataset contains case-level and dyadic information on 326 threatened and imposed sanctions by the EU, the UN, and the US. We show that the usage and overall success of sanctions have not grown from 1989 to 2015 and that while the US is the most active sanctioner, the EU and the UN appear more successful.
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The theoretical and empirical literature on the reciprocal topics of economy and war have developed a fertile debate. Most contributions examine the liberal hope that growing economic bonds between or within nations reduce the risk of... more
The theoretical and empirical literature on the reciprocal topics of economy and war have developed a fertile debate. Most contributions examine the liberal hope that growing economic bonds between or within nations reduce the risk of violent conflict, while an increasing number of studies also examine the destructive and redistributive effect of war, terrorism, and genocides. The article argues that most studies in the field do not provide clear microfoundations for the opportunity-cost arguments that are typically made to justify the deterring effects of increased economic interactions. To move the field forward, contributions need to focus more on how the relationship between business leaders and the government shapes decision making in periods of crisis. Recent advances have been made to understand the economic impact of massive political violence that can only be fully understood through the use of temporally disaggregated data.
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The forecasting literature has come to mistrust the predictions made by experts who forecast political events in mass media. Distinguishing between judgements made by one or few individuals (‘oracles’) and assessments made by larger... more
The forecasting literature has come to mistrust the predictions made by experts who forecast political events in mass media. Distinguishing between judgements made by one or few individuals (‘oracles’) and assessments made by larger groups (‘crowds’), we contrast journalistic predictions with forecasts stemming from the financial industry. These two competing views were evaluated in a quantitative analysis of the ex ante success of 24 ceasefire agreements in various conflicts which took place in the Levant from 1993 to 2014. Our analysis compares the forecasts appearing in press commentaries ( Haaretz, Jerusalem Post and New York Times) with the expectations that the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange had about the stability of these cooperative efforts. To evaluate the predictions of these very dissimilar sources, the effectiveness of the ceasefires was analysed through the number of violent events following the official start of the truce. The analysis shows that the financial industry perfo...
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This article evaluates, by drawing on Barry's distinction between ‘power’ and ‘luck’, the predictive accuracy of competing bargaining models. We explore whether models that take various facets of political power into account predict... more
This article evaluates, by drawing on Barry's distinction between ‘power’ and ‘luck’, the predictive accuracy of competing bargaining models. We explore whether models that take various facets of political power into account predict legislative outcomes more precisely than purely preference-based models like the Nash Bargaining Solution (NBS). Our empirical examination compares how well different formal models predict the outcome of 66 legislative decisions made within the European Union (EU). A model that considers the saliency actors attach to a contested issue performs best among all the models under examination. Although resource-based models provide less accurate forecasts on average, they offer relatively precise point predictions. The analysis also shows that domestic constraints are not a particularly important bargaining resource in legislative decision making.
Research Interests: Economics, International Relations, Decision Making, Political Science, Prediction, and 15 moreEuropean Union, Political Studies, Legislation, Entscheidungsfindung, Political Power, Decision making process, Luck, Europäische Union, Formal Model, Bargaining Power, Legislature, Legislative Decision making, Council of Ministers, Member States, and Prediction Accuracy
Recent formal and empirical research in political science and economics strongly indicates that various forms of political and social polarization increase the risk of violent conflict within and between nation states. The articles... more
Recent formal and empirical research in political science and economics strongly indicates that various forms of political and social polarization increase the risk of violent conflict within and between nation states. The articles collected for this issue explore this crucial relationship and provide answers to a variety of topics: First, contributors address how institutions and other contingent factors mediate the conflict potential in polarized societies. Second, this special issue compares the explanatory power of income polarization with traditional and new measures of inequality. Third, the contributions examine how groups form and coalitions are built in polarized societies and how this affects political decision-making. Finally, the special issue analyses the interconnections between interstate war, internationalized conflict and polarization. This introduction synthesizes the literatures that have been developed on the issue of polarization and conflict in the various soci...
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Studies on international mediation have traditionally focused on the effectiveness of international efforts to settle or resolve militarized conflicts. In this article, we start from a different perspective and examine the identity of... more
Studies on international mediation have traditionally focused on the effectiveness of international efforts to settle or resolve militarized conflicts. In this article, we start from a different perspective and examine the identity of mediators and the factors determining the choice of mediators. We build an integrative theoretical framework to explain the number of mediation mandates an international actor receives. The hypotheses we derive are subsequently tested in a multivariate event count model using an original dataset on international mediation from 1950 to 1990. The results obtained from Poisson and negative binomial regressions disconfirm the assertion that the effectiveness of a mediator influences the number of mandates it receives. The most important structural force on the international mediation market seems to be the hegemonic status of the USA. The analysis further demonstrates that international conflict management is largely, but not exclusively, restricted to the...
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The results of deliberations in multilateral fora are often considered ineffective. Decision making in the European Union (EU) and in particular its key intergovernmental body, the European Council, poses no exception. Especially in the... more
The results of deliberations in multilateral fora are often considered ineffective. Decision making in the European Union (EU) and in particular its key intergovernmental body, the European Council, poses no exception. Especially in the domain of EU foreign and security affairs, the unanimity requirement governing this institution allegedly allows nationalist governments to torpedo any attempt to build up a credible European defense force and a unified foreign policy stance. In this article, we take issue with the claim that multilateral summits merely result in “hot air” by looking at whether and how decisions made during EU summit meetings affect the European defense industry. We argue that investors react positively to a successful strengthening of Europe's military component—a vital part of the intensified cooperation within the European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP)—since such decisions increase the demand for military products and raise the expected profits in the Eur...
Research Interests: Economics, Decision Making, International Trade, Political Science, Foreign Policy, and 12 moreEuropean Union, Financial Markets, Organization, Social Science Research Network, Profitability, Defence Industry, Financial Market, European Council, Rüstungsindustrie, Finanzmärkte, Umverteilung, and Summit
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This study examines the stability of legislative decisions in the European Union, both in terms of a risk of decision cycles and in terms of the frequency of gridlock situations. The risk of cyclical decisions depends on three parameters,... more
This study examines the stability of legislative decisions in the European Union, both in terms of a risk of decision cycles and in terms of the frequency of gridlock situations. The risk of cyclical decisions depends on three parameters, the applied decision rules, the dimensionality of the conflict space and the heterogeneity of actor preferences. Using the concepts of the core and the winset, which stem from spatial voting and veto players theory and which incorporate the three parameters, it is shown that the occurrence of decision ...
As a discipline matures, prediction becomes one of its standard and routine practices. The field of international relations is no exception. The growing attention to forecasting within academic research accompanies increasing expectations... more
As a discipline matures, prediction becomes one of its standard and routine practices. The field of international relations is no exception. The growing attention to forecasting within academic research accompanies increasing expectations by the policy community that international relations research should be able to provide early warning of conflict and other human disasters and should therefore actively be engaged in forecasting exercises. 1 Many international relations scholars nevertheless continue to see prediction as an inferior task ...
Conflict researchers are divided on what explains the massive victimisation and murdering of civilians and unarmed combatants, but largely agree that many of these acts are intentional and that the main perpetrators rely on them for... more
Conflict researchers are divided on what explains the massive victimisation and murdering of civilians and unarmed combatants, but largely agree that many of these acts are intentional and that the main perpetrators rely on them for economic or political gain. The terror strategies against civilians, which the scholarly literature has recently dubbed one-sided violence, take for instance the form of massacres or the mass rape of women and children. The executors of these acts are armed groups that are formally or informally ...
Research Interests: Criminology, Terrorism, Political Science, Politics, War, and 5 moreGenocide, Victimisation, Massacre, Interventions, and battle
This article supports the expectation of Mancur Olson that considerable power asymmetries between competing interest groups characterize public policy making. We show that specialized producer and consumer groups are able to move the... more
This article supports the expectation of Mancur Olson that considerable power asymmetries between competing interest groups characterize public policy making. We show that specialized producer and consumer groups are able to move the outcome into their preferred direction in the domestic prenegotiations on legislative proposals of the European Commission. While general producer interests exert a similar influence across the four EU member states under examination, general consumer interests remain most often ...
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This article presents the Konstanz One-Sided Violence Event Dataset (KOSVED) which allows researchers to study the dynamics of civilian abuse in 17 civil wars. The dataset provides, based on a multitude of sources, detailed infor-mation... more
This article presents the Konstanz One-Sided Violence Event Dataset (KOSVED) which allows researchers to study the dynamics of civilian abuse in 17 civil wars. The dataset provides, based on a multitude of sources, detailed infor-mation on the number of civilians killed or harmed by government or rebel troops. Where information is available, KOSVED also documents the dates of these events as well as the identities of the perpetrators and the means used in terrorizing the civilian population. The authors argue that the content analysis of news reports offers relatively accurate figures on those events that the perpetrators cannot hide from the public and that receive prominent media attention. Presumably, such information motivates potential short-term retaliatory acts by the group that has been the target of one-sided violence. The analysis suggests that, over the course of a conflict, almost all actors attack unarmed citizens, although to radically different degrees and relying on ...