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    Richard Bilsborrow

    The effects of psychosocial and migrant network factors on emigration intentions are examined. Following a review of migration and health theories, it is argued that adaptation of the Health Belief Model (HBM) conceptualization of... more
    The effects of psychosocial and migrant network factors on emigration intentions are examined. Following a review of migration and health theories, it is argued that adaptation of the Health Belief Model (HBM) conceptualization of behavioral intentions contributes to a better understanding and prediction of emigration intentions. An HBM-inspired conceptual model is derived and tested, using comparable data collected in migration surveys by a multi-country project on international migration from West Africa and Mediterranean region to Europe. Results show that indicators of the psychosocial constructs of ‘perceived threat to financial living conditions’, ‘perceived benefits and perceived barriers to emigration’, ‘cues to action’ and ‘perceived general self-efficacy’ show effects in predicted directions and contribute considerably to the explanation of emigration intentions. It is therefore recommended that international migration surveys, when examining emigration intentions, use the...
    Psychosocial factors influencing behaviour play a central role in health research but seem under-explored in migration research. This is unfortunate because these factors, which include knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, intentions and... more
    Psychosocial factors influencing behaviour play a central role in health research but seem under-explored in migration research. This is unfortunate because these factors, which include knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, intentions and personality traits, provide essential and potentially effective handles for linking migration and migrant-integration policies. We demonstrate that the health belief model (HBM) conceptualization of behavioural intentions contributes constructs that can further our understanding of migration intentions, thereby broadening the foundations for migration policies. We adapt the HBM to migration behaviour and then test it empirically by using survey data on international migration from West Africa and the Mediterranean region to the European Union. The results confirm that indicators of “perceived threat to living conditions”, “perceived benefits” and “perceived barriers to migration”, “cues to action” and “self-efficacy” contribute considerably to the explanation of migration intentions. We conclude that psychosocial factors deserve greater prominence in migration theories and empirical research, and we recommend that migration surveys consider this framework to identify relevant indicators of psychosocial factors of international migration and develop appropriate survey questions to measure them.
    Varios estudios dan cuenta de cómo se encuentra la Amazonía y sus poblaciones indígenas, pero estos mismos han tendido a considerarlas como única, al igual que las políticas públicas implementadas para ellas. El objetivo fue identificar... more
    Varios estudios dan cuenta de cómo se encuentra la Amazonía y sus poblaciones indígenas, pero estos mismos han tendido a considerarlas como única, al igual que las políticas públicas implementadas para ellas. El objetivo fue identificar las diferencias en fecundidad, sus relaciones con deseos de tener hijos y uso de métodos anticonceptivos Aprovechamos datos de encuestas realizadas en las mismas comunidades de cinco etnias en el año 2001 y 2012 a los mismos hogares. Se encontró una disminución en la fecundidad, y cada etnia con tendencias diferentes. El deseo de no tener otro hijo aumentó seriamente para el 2012, al igual que el uso de métodos anticonceptivos, pero con aumento de los métodos no modernos más que los modernos, solo una etnia no presentó esta tendencia, indicando que si tienen a la planificación familiar dentro de sus consideraciones sociales. Se muestra que hay una demanda insatisfecha, y a pesar de que podrían ser vistas como una sola sociedad, sus diferencias indica...
    Migration necessarily precedes deforestation in tropical agricultural frontiers. Therefore, identifying individual, household and place characteristics (demographic, political, social, economic, and ecological) related to this process is... more
    Migration necessarily precedes deforestation in tropical agricultural frontiers. Therefore, identifying individual, household and place characteristics (demographic, political, social, economic, and ecological) related to this process is crucial for understanding the drivers of tropical deforestation. This will in turn be useful for developing policies to reduce deforestation, which cannot be approached only from the destination end since this ignores the fundamental role played by migrant farmers advancing the agricultural frontier. This paper uses data from surveys conducted in areas of high out-migration, much to the agricultural frontier in northern Guatemala. Results suggest that larger family sizes, land scarcity, soil degradation, poor access to markets, low education, and poverty are linked to migration to the frontier in Guatemala.
    This paper examines changes over time for a full generation of migrant settlers in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA). Data were collected from a 2014 household survey covering a subsample of households surveyed previously in 1990 and... more
    This paper examines changes over time for a full generation of migrant settlers in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA). Data were collected from a 2014 household survey covering a subsample of households surveyed previously in 1990 and 1999. We observed changes in demographic behavior, land use, forest cover, and living conditions. As the frontier develops, human fertility is continuing to decline with contraceptive prevalence rising. Meanwhile, out-migration from colonist households, largely to destinations within the region, persists. More households have secure land tenure than in 1999, and are better off as measured by possession of assets. There is continued growth in pasture, largely at the expense of forest. Farms still serve as an important livelihood source for families, though growing cities in the NEA are creating more non-agricultural economic opportunities. Our findings provide a snapshot of demographic, economic, land use, and livelihood changes occurring in the NEA d...
    La Amazonía ecuatoriana es una de las zonas bióticas más ricas de la tierra y con pluralidad de poblaciones indígenas. Este estudio pretende reconocer la situación de estas poblaciones, analizando sus tendencias en el tiempo mediante un... more
    La Amazonía ecuatoriana es una de las zonas bióticas más ricas de la tierra y con pluralidad de poblaciones indígenas. Este estudio pretende reconocer la situación de estas poblaciones, analizando sus tendencias en el tiempo mediante un estudio longitudinal sobre su situación demográfica y socioeconómica en la primera década del siglo XXI. Se observa una población joven y con alta fecundidad, así como ligeros decrementos en las actividades tradicionales de sustento y mejoramiento en el acceso a los servicios, propiciados por un contacto mayor con actores externos, como las empresas petroleras, los colonos y el gobierno, que a la par generan una complejidad socioambiental que constituye un reto ahora y hacia el futuro para el ejercicio de los derechos de los indígenas.
    We develop an empirical model of the interaction of rural fertility and rural urban migration which incorporates the effects of landholding patterns. Cross section data for 26 developing countries are used to test the model. The... more
    We develop an empirical model of the interaction of rural fertility and rural urban migration which incorporates the effects of landholding patterns. Cross section data for 26 developing countries are used to test the model. The statistical results support the hypothesis of a positive relationship between fertility and out-migration in the rural sector and lend credence to some of the propositions regarding the impact of landholding patterns. A reduced form of the model is derived from the statistical results, and its policy implications are considered.
    Research Interests:
    Researchers examined how high fertility affected time use of 2679 male children aged 7-17 years living in urban and semiurban ares of the Philippines. 77.3% were enrolled in a school. 57.3% worked at home. 31.1% worked in the market. 7.7%... more
    Researchers examined how high fertility affected time use of 2679 male children aged 7-17 years living in urban and semiurban ares of the Philippines. 77.3% were enrolled in a school. 57.3% worked at home. 31.1% worked in the market. 7.7% were ill in the month prior to the study. On average mothers had attended 5.8 years of school. The children stated it took them on average 30 minutes to get to their high school (travel time). Each child had a mean of 1.3 younger siblings and 1 older sibling. Variables which had a negative association with school attendance included market work younger siblings (especially brothers) and travel time (p<.01). Variables which had a positive association with school attendance were age mothers education income and number of female adults in the household (all variables=(p<.01) expect female adults [p<.05]). Variables which had a negative association with market work included mothers education older brothers living in an urban or semiurban area and community electricity (all variables=p<.01 except semiurban area [p<.1]). Variables which had a positive association with market work were home production being male age income number of female adults family business and family in agriculture (all variables=p<.01 except age and female adults [p<.05]). Variables which had a negative association with home production included being male (p<.05) number of male adults (p<.1) household electricity (p<.05) housing material (p<.01) living in a semiurban area (p<.05) and community day care center (p<.01). Variables which had a positive association with home production were enrolled in school; age recently ill younger siblings (p<.01 for brothers and p<.05 for sisters) and living in an urban area (p<.01).
    Communities indigenous to the Amazon are among the few remaining worldwide still practicing near-natural fertility, without the use of modern contraceptives. Given the large proportion of women desiring no more births, information on the... more
    Communities indigenous to the Amazon are among the few remaining worldwide still practicing near-natural fertility, without the use of modern contraceptives. Given the large proportion of women desiring no more births, information on the challenges women there face in limiting fertility would be useful. Samples of women of reproductive age from five indigenous ethnic groups in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon were surveyed in 2001 and 2012. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses examined married women's desire for another child at both times and modern contraceptive use in 2012, as well as determinants of a change in women's desire to have more children and of the number of children born during the study period. In 2001, 48% of married women desired another child, 2% used a modern contraceptive and 50% had an unmet need for limiting; in 2012, the proportions were 40%, 19% and 47%, respectively. The total fertility rate was 7.9 births per woman in 2001 and 7.0 births per wom...
    Wild product harvesting by forest-dwelling peoples, including hunting, fishing, forest product collection and timber harvesting, is believed to be a major threat to the biodiversity of tropical forests worldwide. Despite this threat, few... more
    Wild product harvesting by forest-dwelling peoples, including hunting, fishing, forest product collection and timber harvesting, is believed to be a major threat to the biodiversity of tropical forests worldwide. Despite this threat, few studies have attempted to quantify these activities across time or across large spatial scales. We use a unique longitudinal household survey (n = 480) to describe changes in these activities over time in 32 indigenous communities from five ethnicities in the northern Ecuadorian Amazon. To provide insight into the drivers of these changes, we also estimate multilevel statistical models of these activities as a function of household and community characteristics. These analyses reveal that participation in hunting, fishing, and forest product collection is high but declining across time and across ethnicities, with no evidence for a parallel decline in resource quality. However, participation in timber harvesting did not significantly decline and the...
    Research Interests:
    This paper examines the effects of family size and sibling position on children's current school enrollment status in the Philippines. The theoretical framework focuses on the determinants of children's... more
    This paper examines the effects of family size and sibling position on children's current school enrollment status in the Philippines. The theoretical framework focuses on the determinants of children's participation in alternative activities, specifically schooling, ...
    A área em estudo neste artigo, no Norte da Amazônia equatoriana, é a principal região de colonização por migrantes no país desde os Anos 70, e tem experimentado grandes mudanças em anos recentes, incluindo rápido crescimento populacional... more
    A área em estudo neste artigo, no Norte da Amazônia equatoriana, é a principal região de colonização por migrantes no país desde os Anos 70, e tem experimentado grandes mudanças em anos recentes, incluindo rápido crescimento populacional e urbano, fragmentação de lotes rurais, mudanças nas formas de uso da terra, e aumento na oferta de trabalho assalariado fora dos lotes. Essas mudanças têm afetado de forma importante a renda e bem-estar dos colonos. Este artigo utiliza dados detalhados de uma pesquisa longitudinal de colonos migrantes em 1990 e 1991, para estimar a renda domiciliar gerada tanto a partir de atividades no próprio lote rural, quanto fora do lote. São estimados, ainda Coeficientes de Gini para a desigualdade na distribuição de terras e renda domiciliar, e avaliadas possíveis causas das mudanças na renda nos Anos 90. O artigo é finalizado com uma discussão sobre políticas que possam aliviar a pobreza e atingir um padrão de desenvolvimento mais sustentável.
    ... But percentages ever breast-fed in five of the other countries studied (Chile, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, and ... Except for the urban poor in Chile, nearly all rural and urban low-income groups breast-fed for ... POPKIN, BILSBORROW,... more
    ... But percentages ever breast-fed in five of the other countries studied (Chile, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, and ... Except for the urban poor in Chile, nearly all rural and urban low-income groups breast-fed for ... POPKIN, BILSBORROW, AKIN & YAMAMOTO / Breast-Feeding Determinants ...
    This paper examines the relationships between female headship status of households and family welfare in rural Ecuador. We first review theoretical arguments for why female headship may affect family welfare. Descriptive analysis... more
    This paper examines the relationships between female headship status of households and family welfare in rural Ecuador. We first review theoretical arguments for why female headship may affect family welfare. Descriptive analysis indicates that female-headed households are worse off according to a variety of measures of welfare. We then focus on children's school enrollment as a specific measure of welfare
    We use household and community data from the Philippines to estimate a multilevel model of contraceptive use. We go beyond previous efforts in this field by developing a structural model that recognizes joint endogeneity and the temporal... more
    We use household and community data from the Philippines to estimate a multilevel model of contraceptive use. We go beyond previous efforts in this field by developing a structural model that recognizes joint endogeneity and the temporal ordering of variables, by considering a wider range of community influences on fertility behavior, and by employing an econometric procedure allowing for a multilevel error structure. The results suggest that there are significant effects on fertility behavior of community-level family planning services, labor-market conditions, and infrastructure development. These results provide insights regarding the structural determinants of contraceptive use and fertility that are useful for drawing policy implications.
    ... entre población y deforestación en el Parque Nacional Sierra de Lacandón en la Reserva de la ... Esperamos una relación negativa entre la segunda y la deforestación puesto que trabajo 5 ... Los modelos de estimación para los modelos... more
    ... entre población y deforestación en el Parque Nacional Sierra de Lacandón en la Reserva de la ... Esperamos una relación negativa entre la segunda y la deforestación puesto que trabajo 5 ... Los modelos de estimación para los modelos de uno y dos niveles toman la siguiente ...
    This paper draws upon a detailed longitudinal survey of households living on agricultural plots in the northern three provinces of the Ecuadorian Amazon, the principal region of colonization by migrants in Ecuador since the 1970s.... more
    This paper draws upon a detailed longitudinal survey of households living on agricultural plots in the northern three provinces of the Ecuadorian Amazon, the principal region of colonization by migrants in Ecuador since the 1970s. Following the discovery of petroleum in 1967 near what has subsequently come to be the provincial capital and largest Amazonian city of Lago Agrio, oil companies built roads to lay pipelines to extract and pump oil across the Andes for export. As a result, for the past 30 years over half of both Ecuador's export earnings and government revenues have come from petroleum extracted from this region. But the roads also facilitated massive spontaneous in-migration of families from origin areas in the Ecuadorian Sierra, characterized by minifundia and rural poverty. This paper is about those migrants and their effects on the Amazonian landscape. We discuss the data collection methodology and summarize key results on settler characteristics and changes in pop...
    Breast-feeding is the focus of rapidly growing interest. Research on the determinants of breast-feeding is only beginning. The research in this paper is based on World Fertility Survey data for Sri Lanka. We develop what we believe to be... more
    Breast-feeding is the focus of rapidly growing interest. Research on the determinants of breast-feeding is only beginning. The research in this paper is based on World Fertility Survey data for Sri Lanka. We develop what we believe to be an appropriate probit model and find that there are significant socioeconomic factors that influence breast-feeding, in addition to the demographic factors focused upon in the literature. Moreover, some of them have clear policy implications, which are elaborated herein with respect to labor force, education, family planning and internal migration policies. In the course of the paper we also address a number of generally neglected statistical issues that should be considered in analyzing the determinants of breastfeeding, including problems resulting from digit preference or age heaping, the need to use dichotomous dependent variables, unavoidable truncation biases in the basic data, and structural shifts in the determinants of breastfeeding at diff...
    This paper examines the effects of family size and sibling position on children's current school enrollment status in the Philippines. The theoretical framework focuses on the determinants of children's... more
    This paper examines the effects of family size and sibling position on children's current school enrollment status in the Philippines. The theoretical framework focuses on the determinants of children's participation in alternative activities, specifically schooling, ...
    This paper examines the relationships between female headship status of households and family welfare in rural Ecuador. We first review theoretical arguments for why female headship may affect family welfare. Descriptive analysis... more
    This paper examines the relationships between female headship status of households and family welfare in rural Ecuador. We first review theoretical arguments for why female headship may affect family welfare. Descriptive analysis indicates that female-headed households are worse off according to a variety of measures of welfare. We then focus on children's school enrollment as a specific measure of welfare
    ... attainment has the potential to relax the budget constraint in the long-run, as well as provide other benefits related to future health and quality of life; there may be an immediate consumption benefit as well if children enjoy... more
    ... attainment has the potential to relax the budget constraint in the long-run, as well as provide other benefits related to future health and quality of life; there may be an immediate consumption benefit as well if children enjoy school. Children's time in home production, including ...
    There may be many political reasons for not wanting to talk about population in Johannesburg. In the real world, however, sustainable development strategies that do not account for the diversity and the dynamics of the human populations... more
    There may be many political reasons for not wanting to talk about population in Johannesburg. In the real world, however, sustainable development strategies that do not account for the diversity and the dynamics of the human populations will fail. This is one of the ...
    Page 1. Indigenous Land Use in the Ecuadorian Amazon: A Cross-cultural and Multilevel Analysis Clark L. Gray & Richard E. Bilsborrow & Jason L. Bremner... more
    Page 1. Indigenous Land Use in the Ecuadorian Amazon: A Cross-cultural and Multilevel Analysis Clark L. Gray & Richard E. Bilsborrow & Jason L. Bremner & Flora Lu Published online: 19 October 2007 © Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2007 ...
    Development and land use/land cover (LULC) change have altered the landscape in and around the Cuyabeno Wildlife Production Reserve in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA). Today, the Reserve covers approximately 600 000 ha and is home to... more
    Development and land use/land cover (LULC) change have altered the landscape in and around the Cuyabeno Wildlife Production Reserve in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA). Today, the Reserve covers approximately 600 000 ha and is home to a host of endemic ...

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