Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                
Skip to main content
Jason Miklian
  • Sandakerveien 130
    Oslo, Norway
  • 004746894451
There is increasing interest in the potential of media sentiment to be a leading indicator or even predictor of future conflict events. Literature establishes that sentiment can be central to conflict escalation processes, and that news... more
There is increasing interest in the potential of media sentiment to be a
leading indicator or even predictor of future conflict events. Literature
establishes that sentiment can be central to conflict escalation processes,
and that news media may capture and reflect peaceful or conflictual
sentiment within a given society. Moreover, analysis through machine
learning and natural language processing techniques increasingly allow
us to gather and process sentiment data at unprecedented scale, depth,
and accuracy. We draw on GDELT’s global sample of more than five
billion media articles to test the relationship between media reported
sentiment and conflict events, utilizing the PRIO-GRID data structure at
daily and monthly intervals. We find that more conflictual sentiment is
significantly associated with spatially and temporally proximate future
conflict events as measured by the ACLED, SCAD and UCDP-GED
datasets. We propose that conflict sentiment can help us analyze conflict
escalation processes more precisely by measuring emotional intensity
and direction through media sentiment analysis, delivering new value for peace and conflict research
Most existing literature on business and crisis frames crisis as a singular event that a business must navigate to survive through or thrive after. But how do firms survive through a series of intersecting and overlapping crises (a... more
Most existing literature on business and crisis frames crisis as a singular event that a business must navigate to survive through or thrive after. But how do firms survive through a series of intersecting and overlapping crises (a polycrisis environment), and how do their strategies differ when operating through an environment of perpetual crisis? In Lebanon, overlapping crises grounded in weak political institutions, economic instability and disasters have profoundly impacted Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). Beirut SMEs operate in a complex urban environment, where neighboring conflicts, urban insecurity and sectarian divisions impact operations. These firms are often promoted in economic development discourses as engines of resilient livelihood creation, but do SMEs negotiate these conditions in productive ways for the community, and can a ‘perpetual crisis operating mentality’ deliver positive societal or economic dividends? This paper addresses these questions by developing a framework conceptualizing SME strategies to perpetual crises, drawing on 34 in-depth qualitative interviews with SME owners in Beirut. We find that SMEs use nuanced strategies to contend with multidimensional crises that are distinct from singular crisis approaches, and discuss how ‘urban crisis as condition’ may shape our understandings of SMEs as peace and development actors. We use these findings to build theory on the role of small business in perpetual crisis and on how survival strategies in such settings can upend business resilience. 
The private sector has become an important part of the peace and conflict landscape, including the business case that multinational corporations (MNCs) make for peacebuilding support. This article uses the Indonesian context to explore... more
The private sector has become an important part of the peace and conflict landscape, including the business case that multinational corporations (MNCs) make for peacebuilding support. This article uses the Indonesian context to explore the foreign MNC-conflict relationship in the manufacturing sector and to challenge the inherent value of this business case across all business sectors. We analyze the effects of various dimensions of corporate investment-based presence on violent conflicts, utilizing a cross-sectional model at the district level. We find that in industrial subsectors that are upward in the value chain, intensive in raw materials and low-skilled work (e.g., Heavy Industries, Food & Tobacco), foreign firm presence exacerbates local violent conflicts. Results in other sectors further down the value chain confirm the potentially positive role of MNCs in peacebuilding. These findings are also relevant for the wider CSR literature in that relationships between host countries and MNCs in fragile or conflict-affected areas are more complex than previously acknowledged, and call for additional research into sector-specific variances on business impacts in fragile and conflict-affected settings.
The COVID-19 pandemic makes us vividly aware of the major global imbalances and challenges that we collectively face today (Sakketa and Koebner, 2020; Sumner et al., 2020). As we witness too often, a crisis – whether economic, political,... more
The COVID-19 pandemic makes us vividly aware of the major global imbalances and challenges that we collectively face today (Sakketa and Koebner, 2020; Sumner et al., 2020). As we witness too often, a crisis – whether economic, political, environmental or social – tends to hit the poorest, weakest and most marginal the hardest, laying bare the
most acute societal and political weaknesses of countries around the world.

But while COVID-19 may be pulling back our veneers of societal normalcy and stability, it did not create the weaknesses that it is exposing. Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, asymmetric relations between local and global power structures were on the rise. These fractures included deepening divides between key North and South actors as governments, businesses and citizens in the North attach renewed importance to overcoming domestic challenges at the expense of their global consequences (Bhambra, 2017), for example in prioritizing cheap fuel over climate action. But they also included new divides between North and North states that crystallized when leaders in the United States and the United Kingdom questioned fundamental alliances that were created at the end of the Second World War, finding populist ‘homegrown solutions’ to be more attractive. And new constellations of cooperation between South and South countries have emerged as they seek to make a greater stamp on global policy and clarifying their own internationalist trajectories in global leadership vacuums. In short, COVID-19 is not a catalyst for societal change, but an accelerant.
After Myanmar ended military rule in 2011, significant foreign investment arrived to facilitate a profitable transition to an integrated regional economy, and under the promise that foreign actors can help facilitate peaceful long-term... more
After Myanmar ended military rule in 2011, significant foreign investment arrived to facilitate a profitable transition to an integrated regional economy, and under the promise that foreign actors can help facilitate peaceful long-term development. However, these firms have also tacitly supported an ethnic cleansing committed by the government that most have partnered with or funded. This article builds theory on economic opening, development and conflict, using research from Myanmar to forward three arguments about business actions in fragile, at-risk countries. First, international-led regulatory reform has had little impact on endemic corruption at the micro- or meso-levels, as local elites and international businesses remain the primary beneficiaries. Second, ‘development’ is a contentious topic, defined locally not as broad societal growth but the unjustified picking of winners and losers in society by foreign entities. Third, business ventures are exacerbating ethnic tensions through a liberal peace-building mentality that is unresponsive to either local conflicts or local communities. The article closes by offering three ways that these findings open future research avenues on business engagement as peace-builders and development agents in developing yet fragile states.
After decades of isolation, Myanmar opened up its economy to international trade in 2012. This opening led to a rapid influx of international investment, exposure to the international corporate social responsibility (CSR) community and... more
After decades of isolation, Myanmar opened up its economy to international trade in 2012. This opening led to a rapid influx of international investment, exposure to the international corporate social responsibility (CSR) community and presumed pressures to conform to related norms and practices. We report on a large-scale survey of firms operating in Myanmar, comparing perceptions of corporate practitioners of CSR and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Our findings show that awareness levels of CSR among domestic Myanmar firms match those of their international peers, but the application of and selection criteria for CSR implementation by domestic firms in Myanmar differs from typical CSR activities observed in other parts of the world, in particular by Global North firms. More surprisingly, Myanmar firms have a higher awareness of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) than their multinational counterparts. Our findings have implications for CSR advocacy in Myanmar as well as for the dissemination of corporate responsibility and sustainability into the developing world more generally.
Colombia’s transition to a post-conflict country has brought security gains and economic benefits to many parts of the country. However, this transition has come amidst political polarization, state weakness, and continuing illicit... more
Colombia’s transition to a post-conflict country has brought security gains and economic benefits to many parts of the country. However, this transition has come amidst political polarization, state weakness, and continuing illicit economies. In this brief, we discuss how the private sector has reacted to this changing political and economic environment. We present lessons learned from our research, confirming that the “logic of the firm” takes different shapes in transition from conflict to peace. We recommend that policies to promote business participation in post-conflict peacebuilding should include the identification of specific business opportunities and potential markets in the regions and economic sectors considered most promising.
The conjunction of business and peace is a growing global phenomenon, but conducted and researched over a vast array of fields and contextual settings. This article provides theoretical order for this disparate material, illustrating... more
The conjunction of business and peace is a growing global phenomenon, but conducted and researched over a vast array of fields and contextual settings. This article provides theoretical order for this disparate material, illustrating cutting-edge research and highlighting the most urgent knowledge gaps to fill. Extracting findings from the business community, international organizations and the academic community, this article maps these findings into five assertions about how businesses impact upon peace: economic engagement facilitates a peace dividend; encouraging local development facilitates local capacities for peace; importing international norms improves democratic accountability; firms can constrain the drivers or root causes of conflict; and undertaking direct diplomatic efforts with conflict actors builds and/or makes peace. These assertions provide a framework for categorizing and testing prominent business–peace arguments. They also support preliminary arguments that businesses cannot expect to be rewarded as peacebuilders just because they undertake peacebuilding activities, that economic opening only brings as much peace as a local regime will allow, and that truly courageous business–peace choices are rarely made in fragile contexts. This framework can encourage more coherent scholarly findings and more effective business engagements within the complex and challenging realm of peacebuilding.
Research Interests:
​What are the conditions under which businesses can move beyond ‘doing no harm’ in the fragile and conflict-affected societies where they work to deliver more tangible positive peace dividends? Designed for businesses, practitioners,... more
​What are the conditions under which businesses can move beyond ‘doing no harm’ in the fragile and conflict-affected societies where they work to deliver more tangible positive peace dividends? Designed for businesses, practitioners, scholars and others who are interested and engaged in corporate impact in such areas, this report provides an overview of the main lessons from a four-year study of corporate peacebuilding initiatives across a range of contexts. Its main findings are formulated as seven key questions which can help evaluate risks and improve impact.
Research Interests:
This article explores the implications of ‘business for peace’ (B4P), a new global governance paradigm that aims to put international businesses at the frontline of peace, stability and development efforts in fragile and conflict­affected... more
This article explores the implications of ‘business for peace’ (B4P), a new global governance paradigm that aims to put international businesses at the frontline of peace, stability and development efforts in fragile and conflict­affected states. This article argues that B4P entails a shift in the balance between public and private authority across what we coin the ‘business–peace nexus’ and which comprises corporate peacebuilding activities across different spatial scales and institutional settings. We explore B4P’s agency across two distinct nodes in this nexus—in global peacebuilding and development architectures, and in local peacebuilding settings in the Democratic Republic of Congo—to articulate the B4P paradigm’s multiple and contradictory effects on the balance between public and private authority in contemporary peacebuilding. On the one hand, B4P tips institutional scales towards the public by embedding corporations within public accountability structures. On the other hand, by legitimising businesses as peace actors, the B4P framework risks institutionalising asymmetrical encounters between firms and people affected by their operations. We deploy the term ‘asymmetrical governance’ to explain how the amalgamation of global and national, public and private into the operational presence of corporations skews the balance of power in their encounters with local populations.
The purpose of this article is to determine to what extent that it is possible to ‘game’ the current academic citation system by artificial means. This article studies a twelve month period of scholarly promotion through a variety of... more
The purpose of this article is to determine to what extent that it is possible to ‘game’ the current academic citation system by artificial means. This article studies a twelve month period of scholarly promotion through a variety of mechanisms in order to test the ability of incentive-based promotion to generate academic citations as calculated by Google Scholar. My primary hypothesis is that the Google Scholar algorithm is not sophisticated enough to be able to distinguish between the value of actual and artificial citations, and thus the citation-based system is flawed and should be de-prioritized as an assessment tool for academics until such gaps are eliminated. A follow-up article will assess the results of this experiment and its methodology, and discuss what implications that these findings may have for the current citation-based system of academic value measurement for scholars.
Research Interests:
After Myanmar ended military rule in 2011, significant foreign investment arrived to facilitate a profitable transition to an integrated regional economy, and under the promise that foreign actors can help facilitate peaceful long-term... more
After Myanmar ended military rule in 2011, significant foreign investment arrived to facilitate a profitable transition to an integrated regional economy, and under the promise that foreign actors can help facilitate peaceful long-term development. However, these firms have also tacitly supported an ethnic cleansing committed by the government that most have partnered with or funded. This article builds theory on economic opening, development and conflict, using research from Myanmar to forward three arguments about business actions in fragile, at-risk countries. First, international-led regulatory reform has had little impact on endemic corruption at the micro or meso levels, as local elites and international businesses remain the primary beneficiaries. Second, ‘development’ is a contentious topic, defined locally not as broad societal growth but the unjustified picking of winners and losers in society by foreign entities. Third, business ventures are exacerbating ethnic tensions through a liberal peacebuilding mentality that is unresponsive to either local conflicts or local communities. The article closes by offering three ways that these findings build theory on business engagement as peacebuilders and development agents in developing yet fragile states.

SSRN Working Paper February 2017
Research Interests:
India's cities are projected to grow by 300 million people by 2050, but this demographic transition may exacerbate fragile communal and infrastructural tensions. To address these challenges, the 'Smart Cities' agenda attempts to leverage... more
India's cities are projected to grow by 300 million people by 2050, but this demographic transition may exacerbate fragile communal and infrastructural tensions. To address these challenges, the 'Smart Cities' agenda attempts to leverage India's rapid embrace of technology to generate societal positive developmental outcomes in urban areas that emphasize the use of Internet and communications technologies (ICTs). However, local, regional and national government agencies struggle to balance embracing technology with inclusive development that protects civil rights and liberties. While the benefits are often stated, the acceleration of technology use in urban development can also create exclusionary cities, and many technologies that drive India's modernization have also facilitated riots and violence between communities. This article explores these contradictions, examining scholarship on Smart Cities and ICTs in the context of the 2015–2016 Patel/Patidar agitation in Gujarat. We conclude by offering forward pathways for the Smart Cities and mobile technology agendas that support inclusive urban growth and development in India but are also mindful of civil liberties.
Research Interests:
How can we foster more socially responsible pro-peace innovations that also have deeper impact? In arguing that incorporating contextual, area-specific and conflict-sensitive guidance enhances the quality and depth of innovation, this... more
How can we foster more socially responsible pro-peace innovations that also have deeper impact? In arguing that incorporating contextual, area-specific and conflict-sensitive guidance enhances the quality and depth of innovation, this article calls for a new research approach on Peace Innovation (PI). This approach could help overcome four existing challenges: expanding the scholar–entrepreneur–policy triad of PI; prioritizing ethical, culturally sensitive engagement; designing innovation to more clearly deliver positive impacts in conflict environments; and glocalizing the PI playing field. We then explore five thematic areas where PI can be impactful: forecasting political economies of conflict; business and virtual peacebuilding; climate and environmentalism; migration and identity; and urbanization. Finally, we discuss how to operationalize such partnerships, moving the theoretical discussion on PI forward for both the peacebuilding and innovation communities. Pushing research frontiers forward will also help innovators develop better tools that prevent violence and promote peace in crisis and conflict environments.
Research Interests:
What factors explain attacks on humanitarian aid workers? Most research has tended to describe trends rather than analyse the underlying reasons behind attacks. To move this agenda forward, we present to our knowledge the first... more
What factors explain attacks on humanitarian aid workers? Most research has tended to describe trends rather than analyse the underlying reasons behind attacks. To move this agenda forward, we present to our knowledge the first peer-reviewed cross-national time-series study that identifies factors related to violent attacks on humanitarian aid workers. Our theoretical framework explores two sets of potential explanatory factors: dynamics of conflicts; and the politicization and militarization of humanitarian operations. Using a global sample at the country level from 1997 to 2014, our results suggest that: (i) the presence and severity of armed conflicts are related to increased attacks on aid workers; (ii) aid workers do not appear to face greater risks even where civilians are targeted; (iii) the presence of an international military force does not appear to add to nor decrease risks to aid workers; and (iv) the effects of peacekeeping operations upon humanitarian security are varied. We discuss this in light of the ongoing challenges facing humanitarian organizations to provide security in fragile and conflict-affected areas.
Research Interests:
The literature on the relationship between the private sector, armed conflict, and peacebuilding has extensively analyzed how companies adapt to unstable contexts, what risks they face and how they are tackled, and the degree to which... more
The literature on the relationship between the private sector, armed conflict, and peacebuilding has extensively analyzed how companies adapt to unstable contexts, what risks they face and how they are tackled, and the degree to which expected peace dividends serve as motivation for companies to engage in peacebuilding. However, while the importance of the private sector for war-to-peace transitions is clear, little has been said about the specific strategies adopted by companies in transition periods. How do companies prepare for peace? What choices do they face? How essential is the role of the CEO or owner? What unique strategies do firms take to adapt to political change? This paper aims to build theory on business strategies in times of transition from conflict to peace to prioritize an under-studied branch of business-peace literature. We identify four types of business strategies for peace (operational, political, philanthropic, public relations). We explore these strategies through choices of firms operating in Colombia to expose key literature gaps and suggest five new research strands that have the potential to integrate strategy and risk calculations into testable study of business-peace relationships.

WORKING PAPER DRAFT, ISA 2017 - PLEASE DO NOT CITE WITHOUT PERMISSION
Research Interests:
The agenda on business and peace has made significant theoretical and empirical progress in the past decade, and we are at an inflection point regarding its forward value for scholars, practitioners and firms. In support, this article... more
The agenda on business and peace has made significant theoretical and empirical progress in the past decade, and we are at an inflection point regarding its forward value for scholars, practitioners and firms. In support, this article provides a forward pathway for the business-peace framework, illustrating the practical advantages of how emerging literature can refine our forward understanding of the business-peace relationship, illuminating research opportunities as new actors expand the boundaries of what we consider business contributions to peace. First, five business-peace assertions are updated in reflection of new research. Next, three key forces that drive assertions for business contributions to peace action of motivation, integration, and effectiveness are explored. Finally, reactions by tech firms in the United States to Donald Trump's executive order banning citizens of seven countries are briefly explored to show potential new business-peace research streams as this global order shifts. Political and economic 'seismic shifts' are drawn upon throughout to lay out the theoretical future of the business-peace agenda in reflection of the growing global prominence of Global South businesses in conflict and crisis regions, the rise of illiberal democracy and more inward-facing nationalisms, and the influence of both upon the multilateral institutions that have been a core proponent of this agenda.
Research Interests:
The new 'Business For Peace' (B4P) paradigm urges corporations to become more active political participants in conflict zones and fragile post-conflict environments of operation. This thrust is designed both to harness the local power of... more
The new 'Business For Peace' (B4P) paradigm urges corporations to become more active political participants in conflict zones and fragile post-conflict environments of operation. This thrust is designed both to harness the local power of corporations for good, and as a potential alternative to traditional development aid. While B4P's positive impact through economic opening and Corporate Social Responsibility is assumed, corporate presence can exacerbate conflict dynamics in certain settings. As B4P is becoming a standardized component of multilateral development and aid activities per the United Nations Global Compact B4P platform and the UN's 'Delivering As One' mandate, exploring B4P's influence on business, development, and conflict is increasingly relevant to understanding institutional responses to peace and peacebuilding.

In this course, held at the Research School on Peace and Conflict by the Peace Research Institute Oslo, we will unpack the relationships between business, conflict and liberal peace politics that led to the B4P and broader business-peace frameworks, and collaboratively explore how businesses see their new role as peacebuilders and peacemakers, particularly within the international community's multi-billion dollar development agenda in fragile and conflict-affected states.

The course is structured as follows: After a brief introductory session to discuss the agenda and learn course participants’ backgrounds and motivations, we will hold two 3-hour sessions per day for the three-day course period, each designed to address a different thematic challenge of business and peace scholarship and practice. Sessions are designed to be collaborative and discussion-oriented, with the readings and discussion questions to be used as a springboard for questions of interest by participants. At the end of each day we will hold a brief concluding wrap-up session to tackle big picture questions and distill key lessons from the day’s discussion.

Additional information and course signup is available at: http://www.peaceconflictresearch.org/Courses/Course/?x=1107
Research Interests:
The conjunction of business and peace is a growing global phenomenon, but conducted and researched over a vast array of fields and contextual settings. This article provides theoretical order for this disparate material, illustrating... more
The conjunction of business and peace is a growing global phenomenon, but conducted and researched over a vast array of fields and contextual settings. This article provides theoretical order for this disparate material, illustrating cutting-edge research and highlighting the most urgent knowledge gaps to fill. Extracting findings from the business community, international organizations, and the academic community, this article maps these findings into five assertions about how businesses impact upon peace: economic engagement facilitates a peace dividend; encouraging local development facilitates local capacities for peace; importing international norms improves democratic accountability; firms can constrain the drivers or root causes of conflict; and undertaking direct diplomatic efforts with conflict actors builds and/or makes peace. These assertions provide a framework for categorizing and testing prominent business-peace arguments. They also support preliminary arguments that businesses cannot expect to be rewarded as peacebuilders just because they undertake peacebuilding activities, that economic opening only brings as much peace as a local regime will allow, and that truly courageous business-peace choices are rarely made in fragile contexts. This framework can encourage more coherent scholarly findings and more effective business engagements within the complex and challenging realm of peacebuilding.

(forthcoming in Business, Peace and Sustainable Development, 2017)
Research Interests:
El análisis de los puntos claves del proyecto: “Huellas de Paz” (HP) de la Federación Nacional de Cafeteros en Colombia permite observar cómo iniciativas de construcción de paz impulsadas por el sector privado pueden mejorar el desarrollo... more
El análisis de los puntos claves del proyecto: “Huellas de Paz” (HP) de la Federación Nacional de Cafeteros en Colombia permite observar cómo iniciativas de construcción de paz impulsadas por el sector privado pueden mejorar el desarrollo económico y social a nivel local. El caso de HP afirma varias ideas existentes alrededor de la idea de «empresa y paz» y da luces para entender ciertos vacíos en la literatura. Este caso también ofrece caminos para que los hacedores de política pública respalden, bajo circunstancias específicas, futuras alianzas por el desarrollo con el sector empresarial y esfuerzos locales de construcción de paz desde la empresa privada. Los resultados aquí presentados pueden guiar a las firmas a considerar iniciativas similares, tener en cuenta la agenda de «empresa y paz» a futuro y mejorar potencialmente la probabilidad de éxito de este tipo de iniciativas en regiones frágiles y afectadas por el conflicto armado.
Research Interests:
Analysis of the Footprints of Peace (FOP) project by the Federación Nacional de Cafeteros in Colombia shows how business-led peacebuilding initiatives can improve local economic and societal development. The FOP case supports several... more
Analysis of the Footprints of Peace (FOP) project by the Federación Nacional de Cafeteros in Colombia shows how business-led peacebuilding initiatives can improve local economic and societal development. The FOP case supports several existing business-peace claims, and sheds light upon three new business-peace research gaps. It also provides avenues for how policymakers can support future development-business collaborations and local peacebuilding efforts by business under certain targeted circumstances. These findings can help guide firms considering similar initiatives, take the business-peace research agenda forward, and potentially improve the likelihood of success for such initiatives in fragile and conflict-affected regions.
Research Interests:
Ahmedabad is often called an Indian 'success story' in terms of economic urbanization, but it is also a city highly segregated along religious and caste lines, and a flashpoint in the 2002 Hindu–Muslim riots that left thousands dead. Most... more
Ahmedabad is often called an Indian 'success story' in terms of economic urbanization, but it is also a city highly segregated along religious and caste lines, and a flashpoint in the 2002 Hindu–Muslim riots that left thousands dead. Most of the Muslim communities relocated after the violence work in a vast informal sector around the city's landfills and waste management peripheries that are disregarded by local government and endemic with corruption. While many scholars see this as a recipe for violent conflict, we explore the garbage slum community in Chandola to show that a leveling of social stratification and reduction of segregation amongst Hindu and Muslim communities in this slum results in a more congruous inter-group relationship than current literatures on the relationship between poverty, religion and violence might predict. However, their unity has come at the expense of jointly 'othering' an even more vulnerable group of newcomers – a Bangladeshi migrant community that is persecuted both by the state as well as by fellow residents. We show that while violence markers are constituted in new ways, challenging some assumptions of how inter-group violence is triggered, the fundamental societal weaknesses that facilitate such tensions remain prevalent despite changing conflict actor allegiances. A background of communal violence in Ahmedabad Located in the wealthy western Indian state of Gujarat, Ahmedabad hosts over six million people and is one of the fastest-growing cities in the world, doubling in size over the last 15 years. Ahmedabad has achieved a strong degree of economic success, and is often viewed as a 'success
Research Interests:
Traditional theories about how a state achieves a monopoly of violence are becoming increasingly strained as different forms of democracy have spread across the globe, and as shifting international norms change what is considered... more
Traditional theories about how a state achieves a monopoly of violence are becoming increasingly strained as different forms of democracy have spread across the globe, and as shifting international norms change what is considered legitimate state action. This article assesses five state responses to political violence in India (military, human rights, media, policing, and preventive policy) to argue that India's growing domestic need to address demands for human security and internationalized need to support human rights underpin its evolving efforts to maintain legitimacy and secure a Weberian monopoly of violence in an internationalized political environment. Monopolies of Violence in Developing Democracies Today The ability of a state to maintain authority is a constant requirement to its existence. States have risen and fallen since the state system was formalized at Westphalia in 1648, expanding, fracturing or dissolving based upon the ability to achieve, maintain, and enforce a legitimate monopoly of violence (MV) within a sacrosanct territory. While traditional perspectives on state violence understood MV in a straightforward way, the dual shifts of the rise of democracy and international normative rights-based actors over the previous decades requires a more nuanced understanding of how the role, duties, and legitimacy of the state are employed. As democracies consider violence on behalf of and upon their own populaces, the notion of what constitutes legitimate action-and who makes this determination-takes a fluid nature. Most developed states established their MV in an era in which standards of legitimacy were basic, but today's developing democracies do not enjoy that luxury. The international community and citizens in developing democracies both increasingly expect
Research Interests:
After the ‘CNN effect’ concept was coined two decades ago, it quickly became a popular shorthand to understand media-conflict interactions. Although the connection has probably always been more complex than what was captured in the... more
After the ‘CNN effect’ concept was coined two decades ago, it quickly became a popular shorthand to understand media-conflict interactions. Although the connection has probably always been more complex than what was captured in the concept, research needs to be updated in order to better
understand the multifaceted contemporary environments of both media and conflict. There are growing numbers and types of media sources, and multiple interactions between media and conflict actors, policymakers and engaged publics from the local to the global and back. We argue that understanding the impact of media reporting on conflict requires a new framework that captures the multilevel and hybrid media environments of contemporary conflicts. This study provides a roadmap of how to systematically unpack this environment. It describes and explains how different levels, interactions, and forms of news reporting shape conflicts and peacebuilding in local, national and regional contexts, and how international responses interact with multiple media narratives. With these tools, comprehensive understandings of contemporary local to global media interactions can be incorporated into new research on media and conflict.
Research Interests:
What factors explain attacks on humanitarian aid workers? Most research has either tended to describe trends rather than analyse the reasons underlying attacks, or lacks the empirical evidence to support causal assertions. In moving this... more
What factors explain attacks on humanitarian aid workers? Most research has either tended to describe trends rather than analyse the reasons underlying attacks, or lacks the empirical evidence to support causal assertions. In moving this agenda forward, we present to our knowledge the first cross-national time-series study that identifies factors related to violent attacks on humanitarian aid workers. Drawing on security, civil conflict, and criminal violence literatures, our theoretical framework explores three groups of potential explanatory factors: dynamics of conflict; the political economic context; and aspects of humanitarian sector operations. Using a global sample at the country-level from 1997-2014, we identify factors related to lethal and non-lethal attacks on humanitarian workers. Our results indicate that the presence and severity of armed conflicts are related to increased attacks on aid workers, but neither conflicts that actively target civilians nor levels of criminal violence increase risks to humanitarian workers. We also find more economically developed and politically stable countries are safer for aid workers, and that the presence of an international military force does not add to aid worker risk.
Research Interests:
Long thought to be a rarefied calling for diplomats or dedicated activists, global peacebuilders are being pushed to accept a new player into their ranks: international business. Attempting to shed their post-Cold War reputations as... more
Long thought to be a rarefied calling for diplomats or dedicated activists, global peacebuilders are being pushed to accept a new player into their ranks: international business. Attempting to shed their post-Cold War reputations as conflict profiteers, transnational firms today from Shell and Starbucks to Chevron and Heineken are undertaking peacebuilding ventures within some of the most fragile, impoverished, and conflict-affected regions of the world. Governments, intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) like the United Nations and the World Bank, and even some international non-governmental organizations (INGOs) have all started to bring businesses aboard in public-private partnerships that try to stimulate peaceful development through poverty reduction, socio-economic growth, and inclusive negotiation. To make sense of it all, we surveyed a broad swath of recent ventures where firms have acted effectively as peacebuilders as well as places where they have simply made conflict and violence worse. Synthesizing many of today’s implicit assumptions, we present five contemporary business actions that arguably advance peace: (1) growing markets and economically integrating regions to facilitate a peace dividend; (2) encouraging local development to grow local peace capacities; (3) importing international norms to improve democratic accountability; (4) changing the drivers or root causes of conflict; and (5) undertaking direct diplomatic efforts with conflict actors. We show that while some see ingenious initiatives brimming with possibilities, others see this as ‘peacewashing’ at best and corporate exploitation of the world’s most vulnerable at worst. We take a measured stance, finding that firms can become effective peacebuilders, but must tread carefully through societal minefields - and their own divergent interests - to get there.
Research Interests:
There is an increasing demand for deploying humanitarian workers to conflict-affected areas. However, this need has expanded the risk of violent attacks against staff in insecure field settings. In this brief, we identify six... more
There is an increasing demand for deploying humanitarian workers to conflict-affected areas. However, this need has expanded the risk of violent attacks against staff in insecure field settings. In this brief, we identify six country-level factors that can influence attacks on aid workers. These six factors help us to better understand the causes of aid worker attacks, and may ultimately guide towards their prevention in the future. This policy brief is the first from an emerging PRIO research program on Humanitarian Security.
Research Interests:
India’s urbanization story is both massive and complex, as 300 million people will move to its urban spaces by 2030, creating significant challenges. In this brief, we argue that India’s cities would be better served in the long-term by... more
India’s urbanization story is both massive and complex, as 300
million people will move to its urban spaces by 2030, creating
significant challenges. In this brief, we argue that India’s cities
would be better served in the long-term by supporting the
inclusive urban policies over those that carry exclusionary aftereffects, by limiting the use of the city as a promotional tool for actors that gain from forwarding divisive identity politics, and by creating more robust city-level political structures in order to improve municipal accountability to urban citizens. We conclude with suggestions for how to further encourage inclusive urban planning and political processes.
Research Interests:
How does India see itself in the modern world and what factors help us understand its foreign policy decisions? Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strong mandate has opened up a series of new policy initiatives to explore in both hard power... more
How does India see itself in the modern world and what factors help us understand its foreign policy decisions? Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strong mandate has opened up a series of new policy initiatives to explore in both hard power and soft power terms, highlighting what India uniquely brings to the global stage. But there also appear to be many inherent contradictions in Indian foreign policy, as the country looks to be a global power in some settings, an emerging developing country power in others and a poor Global South participant in yet others. The different arms of India’s foreign policy apparatus can (and do) argue for all of these approaches simultaneously in an effort to further their respective policy goals. In order to explore this playing field, the report gives a brief background to India’s global interactions, and then explores contemporary foreign policy drivers through India’s engagements in five representative issue areas: climate change, energy security, food security, economic engagements and the Responsibility to Protect. It concludes with thoughts on how India’s interactions in pursuit of its interests in terms of these global issues can illustrate the varied and often contradictory components that constitute the country’s varied current foreign policy engagements.
Research Interests:
How does India envision South Asia? What do Indian policymakers envisage the country’s regional role to be? The issues and actors that dominate India’s regional foreign policy give a glimpse of the country’s priorities in the region. The... more
How does India envision South Asia? What do Indian policymakers envisage the country’s regional role to be? The issues and actors that dominate India’s regional foreign policy give a glimpse of the country’s priorities in the region. The much-touted “shift” in Indian diplomacy under Narendra Modi offers us a window into the priorities of the new government and the extent to which continuity from the past shapes
its regional policy today. This report explores how India works both above and below the regional level in an effort to secure its regional diplomatic and economic priorities. It examines the following five issue areas that have influenced India’s relations with its neighbours: the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, India as a humanitarian actor, supraregionalism and subregionalism, border politics, and democratisation. The report closes with reflections on what implications these engagements might have for Indian foreign policy in the future, arguing that a more inclusive and engaged leadership by India could help to resolve some of South Asia’s most vexing and intractable challenges.
Research Interests:
India’s landmark 2014 election brought Prime Minister Narendra Modi to power with a broad mandate to reshape the country’s foreign policy. His sophistication in this realm has surprised many, but current Indian foreign policy is also... more
India’s landmark 2014 election brought Prime Minister Narendra Modi to power with a broad mandate to reshape the country’s foreign policy. His sophistication in this realm has surprised many, but current Indian foreign policy is also influenced by both structural domestic factors that pre-date his term and new actors who seek to gain influence or expand their roles. This report explores the effect of domestic influence on Indian foreign policy by outlining the growing links between domestic dynamics and India’s international aspirations. It highlights five new domestic determinants of foreign policy decision-making in light of the BJP election victory in 2014. It also discusses five significant challenges that domestic factors pose to India’s ability to turn its international aspirations into reality. These factors indicate that even Modi’s historic mandate may not be enough to insulate his government from domestic forces – both allies and antagonists – that wish to shape foreign policy. The report concludes with thoughts on how these aspirations and challenges influence the playing field on which foreign policy decisions are currently made in India and may manifest themselves in the policy realm.
Research Interests:
Corporations from the East India Company to United Fruit did shady business in conflict zones for decades, inviting the wrath of diplomats and international watchdogs who accused them of war-profiteering. By the end of the 20th century,... more
Corporations from the East India Company to United Fruit did
shady business in conflict zones for decades, inviting the wrath
of diplomats and international watchdogs who accused them
of war-profiteering. By the end of the 20th century, however,
the rapidly growing international peace-building community—
including ngos, the United Nations, development consortiums,
think tanks, and some developed-world governments—started
taking a different tack. These days, an emphasis on economic
opening and corporate social responsibility means that many
of the world’s most powerful organizations are actively encouraging corporations into conflict markets, hoping this will lead to peace. But businesses like Heineken's Bralima subsidiary have found that this often means supporting the very rebel groups that their business activities are supposed to defang.
Research Interests:
The global shift from rural to urban living will be the most important demographic transformation of the 21st century. All great shifts create the opportunity for great fortunes, especially for those with audacious visions who are... more
The global shift from rural to urban living will be the most important demographic transformation of the 21st century. All
great shifts create the opportunity for great fortunes, especially for those with audacious visions who are positioned to capitalize. Indian industrialist Ajit Gulabchand runs Hindustan Construction Company (HCC), which is responsible for some of the country’s most iconic infrastructure projects. In what might be the single biggest bet in the history of Indian real estate, Gulabchand has staked HCC’s future – and his own family fortune – on a cluster of five planned cities perched along artificial fjords about four hours east of Mumbai. He calls it Lavasa.
Research Interests:
Authorities across India are shutting down mobile phone and Internet access to millions of people using antiquated riot laws — quelling free speech and even basic communication in a country that professes openness and digital access for... more
Authorities across India are shutting down mobile phone and Internet access to millions of people using antiquated riot laws — quelling free speech and even basic communication in a country that professes openness and digital access for all.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/03/india-dangerous-digital-curfews_modi_censorship/
Research Interests:
The new 'Business For Peace' (B4P) paradigm urges multinational corporations (MNCs) to enter conflict zones and fragile post-conflict environments as an alternative to traditional development aid. While B4P's positive impact through... more
The new 'Business For Peace' (B4P) paradigm urges multinational corporations (MNCs) to enter conflict zones and fragile post-conflict environments as an alternative to traditional development aid. While B4P's positive impact through economic opening and Corporate Social Responsibility is assumed, corporate presence can instead exacerbate conflict dynamics in certain settings. As B4P is becoming a standardized component throughout all multilateral development aid activities per the United Nations Global Compact B4P platform and the UN's 'Delivering As One' mandate, we argue that bringing B4P into the forefront of research on business, development, and conflict is essential. In this article, we unpack the relationships between business, conflict and liberal peace politics that led to the B4P framework. We then show how five major debates influence B4P today: if MNCs should be peacebuilders; if so, what should they do; how do we define and model ‘peace’ activities; how businesses navigate conflict economies; and how businesses engage with informal economies. We then show how these discussions guide the international community’s multi-billion dollar development agenda and influence how businesses see their new role as peacebuilders and peacemakers. We conclude with suggestions for forward research on this rapidly emerging topic.
Research Interests:
The stunted and stumbling progress of the ‘liberal peace’ philosophy since 1990 tells a complex story. In this article, I give a history of the liberal peace project from its academic and activist origins to today’s global application,... more
The stunted and stumbling progress of the ‘liberal peace’ philosophy since 1990 tells a complex story. In this article, I give a history of the liberal peace project from its academic and activist origins to today’s global application, discussing how policymakers and liberal peace architects see liberal peacebuilding, and how emerging powers such as India and China relate to these goals. I close with a discussion of the future of liberal peacebuilding, the ‘Business for Peace’ paradigm and how relationships between powerful states and their peripheries will still matter despite a more consolidated international aid community.
Research Interests:
Felani wore her gold bridal jewelry as she crouched out of sight inside the squalid concrete building. The 15-year-old’s father, Nurul Islam, peeked cautiously out the window and scanned the steel and barbed wire fence that demarcates the... more
Felani wore her gold bridal jewelry as she crouched out of sight inside the squalid concrete building. The 15-year-old’s father, Nurul Islam, peeked cautiously out the window and scanned the steel and barbed wire fence that demarcates the border between India and Bangladesh. The fence was the last obstacle to Felani’s wedding, arranged for a week later in her family’s ancestral village just across the border in Bangladesh.
Research Interests:
In Part 1 of this report we present the two major bilateral treaties on river water in South Asia, i.e. the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan and the Ganges Water Treaty between India and Bangladesh, as well as the various... more
In Part 1 of this report we present the two major bilateral treaties on river water in South Asia, i.e. the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan and the Ganges Water Treaty between India and Bangladesh, as well as the various water cooperation agreements between India and Nepal, to illustrate the successes, failures and ongoing challenges of South
Asian transboundary river water management. The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) between India and Pakistan was signed in 1960 and recognized as a landmark of cooperation between the two countries. The treaty resolved a 12-year dispute between the signatories regarding their respective rights over the waters of the Indus Basin, and has since survived three wars
between India and Pakistan. The key framework for water-sharing between India and Bangladesh is the Ganges treaty on riverine water-sharing, signed in 1996. This treaty was also
the outcome of a longstanding dispute over sharing of transboundary river water, especially following construction of the Farakka Barrage by India in West Bengal around 16 km upstream of the Bangladesh border. The Ganges Water Treaty assumes equitable sharing of river waters, subject to an impact review by either party. However, when it became evident
that the flow at Farakka was far less than anticipated in the treaty, further negotiations were required to enable a compromise beyond the treaty’s initial agreement. Despite agreements being reached by state representatives, civil society and political actors across South Asia continue to question why their government is allowing the waters of ‘their’ rivers to be used by a neighbouring state.

Part 2 presents findings from our case study of Bangladesh, starting with a review of patterns of rainfall and river flow as factors that exert a crucial influence on water availability
in Bangladesh. The focus of our study is on key transboundary rivers that are central to Bangladeshi debates on upstream dams and diversion schemes. While our research does not
indicate that there have been substantial declines or shifts in rainfall across Bangladesh over the past decades, more concerning is the long-term decline in the flow of the Ganges–Padma, which many assume to be exacerbated by the operation of the Farakka Barrage. Although the decline in river flow volumes began well before construction of the barrage, we suggest that its operation may be canceling out natural long-term cyclical patterns to create new average flows that are lower than those of the mid-20th century. Perhaps more importantly, our analysis has found no clear relationship between water scarcity and conflict in the past two decades,
although in the case of the Ganges–Padma river there are indications that more conflict events have occurred as flow volumes have decreased, supported by interview data on several instances where violent and non-violent conflicts have arisen over the issue of water availability. Given increasing uncertainties over water supply, domestic water-sharing policies
should therefore be considered as supporting not only livelihoods but also security. While it is essential to understand macro changes in South Asia’s climate and water ecosystems, good water management also requires an understanding of local dynamics in areas dependent on river water, including grassroots perceptions of water-related challenges and popular views about their causes. The stakeholder analysis made it clear that communication between water management policymakers and affected populations along the rivers is minimal, and that a very significant knowledge gap exists between policymakers and
affected populations. Those who are facing the consequences of water management policies and projects are largely ignorant about decisionmaking and are not invited into policymaking
processes, nor are their views sought by policymakers. As a result, policymakers do not have sufficient information about local challenges, views and interests. However, as a result of
developments in the media, local residents are now becoming more aware of water-related issues, while projects such as the Tipaimukh Dam have become a burning issue of civil society protests, especially in the Sylhet area downstream of the proposed dam. Our study revealed a further communication gap and gap in awareness between policymakers and
knowledge producers, and a lack of expert involvement in policymaking. Finally, there are also barriers to civil society contributions to decisionmaking. The danger is that policymaking outcomes are more influenced by political rivalry than by comprehensive scientific assessments of water-related challenges.

Although bilateral treaties still form the primary mode of cooperation on transboundary rivers in South Asia, multilateral frameworks and transboundary River Basin Organizations (RBOs) are attracting increasing attention in the region as potential avenues forward in dealing with water challenges, as described in Part 3 of this report. The term ‘transboundary river basin organization’ describes a wide range of organizational types performing various functions, generally including most (if not all) of the countries within a particular river basin. The legal frameworks and statutes of these institutions are often
determined by the basin’s context and history and the mandate given to the body established by the member states. This project looked specifically at the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), Mekong River Commission (MRC) and South Asia Water Initiative (SAWI) in order to illustrate their relevance for the region of study and explore possibilities for extracting important lessons relevant across cases. Whereas NBI and MRC are among the organizations often used as examples of comparatively successful transboundary water cooperation, SAWI is a relatively new multilateral framework initiative, and, so far, is the only multilateral initiative on transboundary waters in South Asia. It is therefore important to investigate this initiative,
to inform the further development of multilateral river-basin cooperation on river water management in South Asia in general and Bangladesh in particular.
Research Interests:
War, business, and democracy can intersect in complex ways. In India, mining companies operate throughout a warzone between the government and a Maoist insurgency. Mining companies promised that their activities would benefit local... more
War, business, and democracy can intersect in complex ways. In India, mining companies operate throughout a warzone between the government and a Maoist insurgency. Mining companies promised that their activities would benefit local populations, but over-reliance
on the government to implement development initiatives eroded public faith. The
Maoists used the implementation gap to recruit fighters and build public support through an anti-state and anti-corporate ideology. While traditional political ecology interpretations often blame corporations alone for negative mining consequences, this article explores how governance failures can also act as conflict triggers in mining districts. Understanding the interrelation effects between these actors can enable a broader understanding of not only the Maoist conflict in India but also how the political ecology of war influences business and conflict dynamics in resource-rich but war-ridden developing states.
Research Interests:
The richest iron mine in India was guarded by 16 men, armed with Army-issued, self-loading rifles and dressed in camouflage fatigues. Only eight survived the night of Feb. 9, 2006, when a crack team of Maoist insurgents cut the power to... more
The richest iron mine in India was guarded by 16 men, armed with Army-issued, self-loading rifles and dressed in camouflage fatigues. Only eight survived the night of Feb. 9, 2006, when a crack team of Maoist insurgents cut the power to the Bailadila mining complex and slipped out of the jungle cover in the moonlight. The guerrillas opened fire on the guards with automatic weapons, overrunning them before they had time to take up defensive positions. They didn’t have a chance: The remote outpost was an hour’s drive from the nearest major city, and the firefight to defend it only lasted a few minutes.
Research Interests:
Military counterinsurgencies can intensify wars by exacerbating the very violence and attacks upon civilian populations that they are meant to temper. In 2005, the state of Chhattisgarh, India responded to a long-simmering conflict... more
Military counterinsurgencies can intensify wars by exacerbating the very violence and attacks upon civilian populations that they are meant to temper. In 2005, the state of Chhattisgarh, India responded to a long-simmering conflict against the Communist Party of India-Maoist (or Naxals) in this manner by secretly funding and arming a counterinsurgency group called Salwa Judum (meaning ‘purification hunt’). Salwa Judum was armed by the state in the hopes that it would fight the Naxals, make the mineral-rich area safer for industry, and allow for official deniability of violence against civilians and suspected Naxals in the name of reasserting control. Instead of quelling the rebellion, the conflict became exponentially deadlier, militarizing marginalized communities in the process. However, industry has thrived even as it sits in the heart of the conflict zone, surrounded by a human rights disaster from which the state has yet to recover.
Research Interests:
The Gujarat Mail is just another red-eye train. Twelve powder-blue passenger cars crisscrossing, like so many hundreds of others, India’s northwestern breadbasket through the dark of night. At five minutes past two, the Mail begins its... more
The Gujarat Mail is just another red-eye train. Twelve powder-blue passenger cars crisscrossing, like so many hundreds of others, India’s northwestern breadbasket through the dark of night. At five minutes past two, the Mail begins its four-hour journey, lumbering south from Surat to Mumbai. Inside, the third-class cabins are equal parts scurrying roaches and dangling unwashed feet; fading monsoon rains that bleed through the iron-barred windows grant only fleeting mercies. A few hundred unwilling insomniacs are sandwiched together, helplessly sweating on filthy vinyl benches as the shrieking of the rails splinters dreams along every gentle bend. In this part of the world, it’s an utterly unexceptional journey.

Aside from the $25 million or so in freshly polished diamonds on board, that is.
Research Interests:
This multi-methods thesis presents the hypothesis that revolutionary conflicts in federal democracies have unique characteristics that are distinguishable from other types of civil wars. To test this hypothesis, I examined how India’s... more
This multi-methods thesis presents the hypothesis that revolutionary conflicts in federal democracies have unique characteristics that are distinguishable from other types of civil wars. To test this hypothesis, I examined how India’s federal framework and natural resource extraction policies
influenced local and national dimensions of the long-running Maoist conflict in central India. The relationship between mining, conflict and development was studied to explore how governments, insurgent groups, non-state actors and citizens acted in revolutionary conflict. I found that decentralization of political power to local elites encouraged policies that favored their personal gain, negatively affecting social cohesion, land rights and development schemes. This also encouraged companies in the conflict zone to use conflict-related loopholes within India’s federal democratic structures for corporate gain. Political prioritization of mining interests bolstered Maoist support in terms of ideological backing, funding, and recruitment, and increased violence and conflict intensity.
Grievances were rooted in the vertical inequalities that pro-mining policies created, and the Maoists capitalized on how mining activities exacerbated horizontal inequalities against Scheduled Caste/Scheduled Tribe communities. The five articles that constitute this thesis assess these conflict dynamics from the micro- to macro- levels of analysis.
Research Interests:
This article traces the path of the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist ascent to power from the start of Nepal's 1996-2006 civil war to its end. In the pattern of several other movements inspired by the success of Mao’s 1948 take-over of the... more
This article traces the path of the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist ascent to power from the start of Nepal's 1996-2006 civil war to its end. In the pattern of several other movements inspired by the success of Mao’s 1948 take-over of the Chinese state, the Maoists of Nepal tactically fought their war in stages, consisting of creation, expansion, and consolidation. Re-examining the lifecycle of Nepal’s Civil War in this context allows us to better understand:  the course of events and the timing of significant episodes; the decisions that Maoist leadership made; and what techniques the Maoists used in order to make in-roads during each phase of the conflict.
Research Interests:
Responding to recent critiques, foreign aid organisations are increasingly ‘going local’ in their operations in order to integrate local actors into their peace-building and aid projects. This is done under the belief that entering into... more
Responding to recent critiques, foreign aid
organisations are increasingly ‘going local’ in
their operations in order to integrate local
actors into their peace-building and aid
projects. This is done under the belief that
entering into partnerships directly with
grassroots actors will increase local
autonomy in joint ventures, thus
empowering locals as agents of change both
during and after the project period. But
despite its normative and conceptual appeal,
we argue that this model is not workable in
practice and cannot be under the current
structural conditions of the international aid
environment. This is due to a fundamental
disconnect between the conceptualisation
and rationale of ‘going local’ and the
structural and institutional frameworks
within which ‘local ownership’ is supposed
to be operationalised and implemented. This
paper uses the example of Nepal to illustrate
that this disconnect not only prevents foreign
aid organisations from reaching their stated
goals, but exacerbates the very problems that
‘going local’ is supposed to address.
Research Interests:
After the government of Nepal signed a peace agreement with the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist in 2006 to end a 10 year civil war, local and international observers were surprised to see new fighting erupt in the Terai region of southern... more
After the government of Nepal signed a peace agreement with the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist in 2006 to end a 10 year civil war, local and international observers were surprised to see new fighting erupt in the Terai region of southern Nepal. The violence, however, was initiated not by either party to the civil war but by groups targeting both the state and the Maoists, polarizing citizens along ethnic issues largely unaddressed during the civil war.

In 2007, three of these groups joined forces to create a coalition called the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF).The UDMF’s stated goal is to transform the Terai into a single autonomous province of Madhes. To accomplish this, the UDMF has redefined the identity of those people living in the Terai and those outside of it, in turn exacerbating ethnic division and violence at the grassroots level.

This narrative has benefited the UDMF by binding otherwise disparate ethnic groups together, constructing a history of the Terai that makes it their exclusive political domain, polarizing society into a ‘Madhesi vs. Pahadi (Kathmandu valley)' dichotomy that scapegoats elite ethnicities for local problems, and dissociating Madhesi political leaders from their Maoist past. The UDMF uses political violence to draw attention to the plight of those from the Madhesi ethnic group, signing two peace agreements over the past year with political leaders in Kathmandu to push reform and articulate their grievances.

However, implementation of the agreements is complex and problematic. Nepal’s government is in a difficult spot: it committed to UDMF directives that, if implemented in their entirety, will likely increase conflict within the Terai while simultaneously fracturing the state and weakening Nepal’s fragile institutions.
Research Interests:
A tight-knit network of informal traders is exploiting a vacuum of law enforcement in southern Nepal to generate significant operating capital for the Pakistani militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). The traders employ the same money... more
A tight-knit network of informal traders is exploiting a vacuum of law enforcement in southern Nepal to generate significant operating capital for the Pakistani militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). The traders employ the same money laundering techniques as others in Nepal did a decade before, as the legal loopholes, lack of infrastructure, and widespread corruption that created these opportunities were not addressed. Nepal and India continue to focus on individual criminals in their attempts to shut down the networks, rather than reforming the structural conditions allowing the networks to operate. As a result, the traders operate in an environment conducive for the creation of vast sums of informal wealth with few barriers to operation and at little risk.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Stopping the international trade in conflict diamonds has become nearly impossible under the current Kimberley Process framework as new smuggling routes through India expose its structural weaknesses. Thankfully, a simple and... more
Stopping the international trade in conflict diamonds has become nearly impossible under the current Kimberley Process framework as new smuggling routes through India expose its structural weaknesses. Thankfully, a simple and cost-effective solution is at hand: Mandating mine-to-market tracing for all newly mined diamonds.
www.prio.org
ISBN: 978-82-7288-530-3 (Print)
978-82-7288-529-7 (Online)
Photos: Jason Miklian
Editor: Julie Lunde Lillesæter
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
PO Box 9229 Grønland, NO-0134 Oslo, Norway
Visiting Address: Hausmanns gate 7
Exposing and Limiting the Global Trade in
Conflict Diamonds
Research Interests:
India’s rapid economic growth over the last decade has been coupled with a Maoist insurgency that competes with the state for rural allegiance. In response to the threat, the Government of India has securitized development, using public... more
India’s rapid economic growth over the last decade has been coupled with a Maoist insurgency that competes with the state for rural allegiance. In response to the threat, the Government of India has securitized development, using public works programmes in an attempt to sway locals away from Maoist allegiance. However, these areas are also home to massive iron and coal mines that drive India’s growth. This study aims to address the lack of local-level analysis and the lack of a robust dataset by merging qualitative fieldwork with disparate district-level conflict data sources to explore different potential explanatory variables for the Maoist insurgency, including the relationship between development works, violence, and
natural resource extraction. We find that while effective implementation of development programmes is loosely related to the immediate suppression of violent activities in Maoist-affected districts, and under certain conditions mining activity increases the likelihood for conflict, it is the presence of scheduled caste and tribal communities that is the best predictor of violence.
Research Interests:

And 5 more

How can business leaders navigate through a world of polycrisis? This work blends historical lessons, firsthand accounts, and ethical perspectives on crisis to fill a key gap in our understanding of effective, ethical leadership through... more
How can business leaders navigate through a world of
polycrisis? This work blends historical lessons, firsthand accounts, and
ethical perspectives on crisis to fill a key gap in our understanding of
effective, ethical leadership through settings of crisis, conflict and/or
fragility. Pulling from historical events and contemporary research, this
Element looks past individual crises and explores a world of
overlapping, permanent crises, or “polycrisis.” It contrasts traditional
leadership responses with values of community and authenticity,
emphasizing the necessity of ethical and servant leadership when
conventional business strategies fail. This work offers insights for
anyone interested in understanding and navigating the complex
landscape of crisis and strategizes enduring leadership for constant
crises.
India's image as a powerful player in global politics and a contender to superpower status is boosted by its explosive economic growth and demographic trends. While competition with China for Asian supremacy and threats from Pakistan are... more
India's image as a powerful player in global politics and a contender to superpower status is boosted by its explosive economic growth and demographic trends. While competition with China for Asian supremacy and threats from Pakistan are seen by many as the major obstacles to the realization of India's growth potential, the human security challenges in this volume have received far less attention. Analysts who ignore or underestimate these challenges not only run the risk of overlooking key impediments to India's development, but may also fail to recognize the gravity of current threats to the welfare and very survival of millions of Indian citizens.
Research Interests:
India's explosive economic growth and emerging power status make it a key country of interest for policymakers, researchers and scholars within South Asia and around the world. But while many of India's threats and conflicts are... more
India's explosive economic growth and emerging power status make it a key country of interest for policymakers, researchers and scholars within South Asia and around the world. But while many of India's threats and conflicts are strategized and discussed extensively within the confines of security studies, strategic studies and conventional international relations perspectives, many less visible challenges are set to impact significantly on India's potential for economic growth as well as the human security and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of Indian citizens.

Drawing on extensive research within India, this book looks at some of the ‘hidden risks’ that India faces, exploring how a broadened scope of what constitutes ‘risk’ itself holds value for Indian security studies practitioners and policymakers. It highlights several human security risks facing India, including the inability of the world’s largest democracy to deal effectively with widespread poverty and health issues, resource depletion and environmental mismanagement, pervasive corruption and institutionalized crime, communal violence, a protracted Maoist insurgency, and deadlocked peace processes in the Northeast among others. The book extracts common themes from these seemingly disparate problems, discussing what underlying failures allow them to persist and why policymakers heavily securitize some political issues while ignoring others.

Providing an understanding of how several lesser-studied risks can pose potential or actual threats to Indian society and its ‘emerging power’ growth narrative, this book is a useful contribution to South Asian Studies, International Security Studies and Global Politics.
Research Interests:
Millions of people around world have been displaced in just the past decade by natural resource projects, and the complex dynamics of displacement can lead to violent conflict. Relating how displacement can influence war and violence –... more
Millions of people around world have been displaced in just the past decade by natural resource projects, and the complex dynamics of displacement can lead to violent conflict. Relating how displacement can influence war and violence – where it erupts, and how conflict resolution can be used to defuse tensions

In this presentation I illustrate how new global shifts can help us decipher the future of land and conflict, exploring 3 theoretical propositions for understanding the relationship between resource acquisition, displacement, and the potential for violent conflict today
Research Interests:
According to the Human Security Report (2005; 2009/2010), India remains the world’s second most conflict-prone country (after Burma/Myanmar) in the post-World War II period. India also ranks highest in terms of cases of armed conflict and... more
According to the Human Security Report (2005; 2009/2010), India remains the world’s second most conflict-prone country (after Burma/Myanmar) in the post-World War II period. India also ranks highest in terms of cases of armed conflict and one-sided violence as of the 2002-2003 ‘Human Security Audit’. As the world’s most violent democracy, India’s armed conflicts are both numerous and protracted, but are generally low-intensity. Perhaps this is why India is seldom studied as a country in conflict. Nor does it feature in the study of post-conflict peacebuilding even as policymakers and analysts turn their attention to the external peacebuilding strategies and potentials of emerging powers (see for instance Sagar 2009, Schweller 2011). In this paper we address this gap with a structured examination and analysis of Indian responses to some of its most significant and long-lasting internal conflicts before and after the watershed 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, querying whether and how Indian approaches to peacebuilding are
best described as ‘liberal’, ‘illiberal’, or ‘hybrid’, and whether there is an inherently ‘Indian’ mode of peacebuilding at all. We aim to contribute to the critical rethinking of (il)liberal peacebuilding and hybrid peace governance, illustrating not only that peacebuilding activities can be employed internally in addition to their traditional use of external actors trying to fix ‘failed’ states, but that Indian debates on conflict management and resolution already employ the rhetoric (if not the actions) of liberal peacebuilding to justify interventions of varied degrees of liberality across the country through developmental security lenses.
Research Interests:
The private sector has become an important part of the peace and conflict landscape, including the business case that multinational corporations (MNCs) make for peacebuilding support. This article uses the Indonesian context to explore... more
The private sector has become an important part of the peace and conflict landscape, including the business case that multinational corporations (MNCs) make for peacebuilding support. This article uses the Indonesian context to explore the foreign MNC-conflict relationship in the manufacturing sector and to challenge the inherent value of this business case across all business sectors. We analyze the effects of various dimensions of corporate investment-based presence on violent conflicts, utilizing a cross-sectional model at the district level. We find that in industrial subsectors that are upward in the value chain, intensive in raw materials and low-skilled work (e.g., Heavy Industries, Food & Tobacco), foreign firm presence exacerbates local violent conflicts. Results in other sectors further down the value chain confirm the potentially positive role of MNCs in peacebuilding. These findings are also relevant for the wider CSR literature in that relationships between host countries and MNCs in fragile or conflict-affected areas are more complex than previously acknowledged, and call for additional research into sector-specific variances on business impacts in fragile and conflict-affected settings.
There is increasing interest in the potential of media sentiment to be a leading indicator or even predictor of future conflict events. Literature establishes that sentiment can be central to conflict escalation processes, and that news... more
There is increasing interest in the potential of media sentiment to be a leading indicator or even predictor of future conflict events. Literature establishes that sentiment can be central to conflict escalation processes, and that news media may capture and reflect peaceful or conflictual sentiment within a given society. Moreover, analysis through machine learning and natural language processing techniques increasingly allow us to gather and process sentiment data at unprecedented scale, depth, and accuracy. We draw on GDELT’s global sample of more than five billion media articles to test the relationship between media reported sentiment and conflict events, utilizing the PRIO-GRID data structure at daily and monthly intervals. We find that more conflictual sentiment is significantly associated with spatially and temporally proximate future conflict events as measured by the ACLED, SCAD and UCDP-GED datasets. We propose that conflict sentiment can help us analyze conflict escalation processes more precisely by measuring emotional intensity and direction through media sentiment analysis, delivering new value for peace and conflict research
The ten-year civil war in Nepal began in 1996 when the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (or CPN-M, also known as the Maoists) launched a violent insurgency against representatives of the government of Nepal. The Maoists justified their... more
The ten-year civil war in Nepal began in 1996 when the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (or CPN-M, also known as the Maoists) launched a violent insurgency against representatives of the government of Nepal. The Maoists justified their fight through an ideology that defined violent political struggle as an extension of class warfare against elite domination of political and economic life. The Maoists grew in areas where a vacuum of government prevailed, directing their attacks against illequipped state institutions, including the police and army, as well as civilians. The conflict increased in scope and intensity over time, and King Gyanendra responded in 2005 by disbanding Parliament, instituting a pan-Nepal political emergency and directing the Nepal Army to attack the Maoists. However, these measures turned popular support against the king and brought the Maoists, political parties and civil society together to demand a return to democracy. Massive nonviolent demonstraIn November ...
How can we better understand the complex interaction effects that are triggered when businesses and international government agencies become partners in social development? To answer, this article presents field experiences of Heineken in... more
How can we better understand the complex interaction effects that are triggered when businesses and international government agencies become partners in social development? To answer, this article presents field experiences of Heineken in the Democratic Republic of Congo, ethnic cleansing in Myanmar, and the United Nations Global Compact in Dubai, to show the impact of key multi-stakeholder business-development policies as experienced by millions of people. These cases help us understand business and sustainable development interactions by exploring existing research gaps regarding issues of discourse, guidance, and legitimacy. This article has four aims: (1) to show that business-development interactions are much more complex than most case studies are able to encapsulate; (2) to explore how unintended ripple effects of even the most promising “win-win” business-development policies can carry catastrophic consequences; (3) to illustrate the potential benefits of a novel methodology...
Ahmedabad is often called an Indian ‘success story’ in terms of economic urbanization, but it is also a city highly segregated along religious and caste lines, and a flashpoint in the 2002 Hindu–Muslim riots that left thousands dead. Most... more
Ahmedabad is often called an Indian ‘success story’ in terms of economic urbanization, but it is also a city highly segregated along religious and caste lines, and a flashpoint in the 2002 Hindu–Muslim riots that left thousands dead. Most of the Muslim communities relocated after the violence work in a vast informal sector around the city’s landfills and waste management peripheries that are disregarded by local government and endemic with corruption. While many scholars see this as a recipe for violent conflict, we explore the garbage slum community in Chandola to show that a leveling of social stratification and reduction of segregation amongst Hindu and Muslim communities in this slum results in a more congruous inter-group relationship than current literatures on the relationship between poverty, religion and violence might predict. However, their unity has come at the expense of jointly ‘othering’ an even more vulnerable group of newcomers – a Bangladeshi migrant community that is persecuted both by the state as well as by fellow residents. We show that while violence markers are constituted in new ways, challenging some assumptions of how inter-group violence is triggered, the fundamental societal weaknesses that facilitate such tensions remain prevalent despite changing conflict actor allegiances.
After the ‘CNN effect’ concept was coined two decades ago, it quickly became a popular shorthand to understand media-conflict interactions. Although the connection has probably always been more complex than what was captured in the... more
After the ‘CNN effect’ concept was coined two decades ago, it quickly became a popular shorthand to understand media-conflict interactions. Although the connection has probably always been more complex than what was captured in the concept, research needs to be updated in order to better understand the multifaceted contemporary environments of both media and conflict. There are growing numbers and types of media sources, and multiple interactions between media and conflict actors, policymakers and engaged publics from the local to the global and back. We argue that understanding the impact of media reporting on conflict requires a new framework that captures the multilevel and hybrid media environments of contemporary conflicts. This study provides a roadmap of how to systematically unpack this environment. It describes and explains how different levels, interactions, and forms of news reporting shape conflicts and peacebuilding in local, national and regional contexts, and how inte...
... 'Domestic Institutions and the Duration of Civil War Settlements.' Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, New Orleans, March 24-27, 2002. 3 Hartzell, Caroline and... more
... 'Domestic Institutions and the Duration of Civil War Settlements.' Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, New Orleans, March 24-27, 2002. 3 Hartzell, Caroline and Matthew Hoddie, 2005. ... 13 IRIN News Wire, 17 January 2007. ...
Economic crises, natural disasters, armed conflict and infectious disease outbreaks, amongst others, present interlinked challenges for small businesses and have generated a recent wealth of research across varied fields. Therefore, this... more
Economic crises, natural disasters, armed conflict and infectious disease outbreaks, amongst others, present interlinked challenges for small businesses and have generated a recent wealth of research across varied fields. Therefore, this article outlines an analytical lens suggesting how SMEs experience shocks and crises that focuses on the interlinked nature of (i) the business, (ii) the shock and (iii) the response within a given context. We thematically draw out key trends, knowledge gaps and tensions and highlight promising research and engagement avenues for future scholarship and practice. We contextualise (i) how small businesses are distinct from large firms in how they experience shock and crisis events; (ii) how different types of crises impact small business; (iii) how shocks and crises shape SME-specific responses and (iv) how the COVID-19 pandemic as a ‘novel exogenous shock’ influences all of the above. We conclude by emphasising emerging knowledge avenues for future s...
Climate change-induced events amplify existing social, political, economic, infrastructural and environmental concerns in many Global South cities, and perhaps no city is more vulnerable than Bangladesh’s capital of Dhaka. Climate-induced... more
Climate change-induced events amplify existing social, political, economic, infrastructural and environmental concerns in many Global South cities, and perhaps no city is more vulnerable than Bangladesh’s capital of Dhaka. Climate-induced rural-urban migration is a profound concern, and Dhaka’s political leaders have embraced technology-based innovation as a solution pathway. This article explores the societal impact of Dhaka’s innovation environment strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Employing a case study qualitative methodology, our three findings challenge existing assumptions about innovation-urban climate mitigation relationships: First, the most effective innovations were not the most technologically advanced, but those with the highest degree of participant ownership. Second, gaps between recipient, corporate and governmental understandings of effective mitigation and adaptation harmed projects, and were driven by different definitions of risk and compe...
India’s rapid economic growth over the last decade has been coupled with a Maoist insurgency that competes for the allegiances of rural populations with the state. In response to the threat, the Government of India has securitized... more
India’s rapid economic growth over the last decade has been coupled with a Maoist insurgency that competes for the allegiances of rural populations with the state. In response to the threat, the Government of India has securitized development, using public works programs in an attempt to sway locals away from Maoist allegiance. However, these areas are also home to massive iron, coal, and steel factories that drive India’s growth. This study uniquely aimed to address the lack of local-level analysis and the lack of a robust dataset by merging previous qualitative fieldwork with disparate conflict data sources at the district level to explore different potential explanatory variables for the Maoist insurgency, including the relationship between development works, violence, and natural resource extraction. We find that while effective implementation of development programs like NREGA may indeed be loosely related to the suppression of violent activities in districts affected by the Ma...
India’s cities are projected to grow by 300 million people by 2050, but this demographic transition may exacerbate fragile communal and infrastructural tensions. To address these challenges, the ‘Smart Cities’ agenda attempts to leverage... more
India’s cities are projected to grow by 300 million people by 2050, but this demographic transition may exacerbate fragile communal and infrastructural tensions. To address these challenges, the ‘Smart Cities’ agenda attempts to leverage India’s rapid embrace of technology to generate societal positive developmental outcomes in urban areas that emphasize the use of Internet and communications technologies (ICTs). However, local, regional and national government agencies struggle to balance embracing technology with inclusive development that protects civil rights and liberties. While the benefits are often stated, the acceleration of technology use in urban development can also create exclusionary cities, and many technologies that drive India’s modernization have also facilitated riots and violence between communities. This article explores these contradictions, examining scholarship on Smart Cities and ICTs in the context of the 2015–2016 Patel/Patidar agitation in Gujarat. We con...
... the direct effects of liberalisation programmes were probably insignificant to initial Maoistrecruitment, foreign aid ... View all notes. When they leave, locals expect government agencies to pick up the slack. ... The trend started... more
... the direct effects of liberalisation programmes were probably insignificant to initial Maoistrecruitment, foreign aid ... View all notes. When they leave, locals expect government agencies to pick up the slack. ... The trend started in the 1990s, with 30,000 NGOs in Nepal by 2000.60 60. ...
Purpose This paper aims to present a new survey data set of 9,065 private sector respondents and other stakeholder groups, in Myanmar. The primary aim of this paper is to offer new insight avenues on local business–conflict–development... more
Purpose This paper aims to present a new survey data set of 9,065 private sector respondents and other stakeholder groups, in Myanmar. The primary aim of this paper is to offer new insight avenues on local business–conflict–development interactions, and offer the full survey data set itself as an open-source research tool for scholars and practitioners. Design/methodology/approach The survey was conducted over smartphone in 2018. It asked questions that aimed to better understand the relationships between business, ethnic conflict, investment, corporate social responsibility and the United Nations sustainable development goals in Myanmar and in Rakhine State in particular. Findings The data set captures a series of significant differences in corporate leadership perspectives on the role of business in society, across sectors (e.g. banking, agriculture, retail, manufacturing, extractives) and variations across firm country of ownership (e.g. national firms, Global North firms, Indian...
​What are the conditions under which businesses can move beyond ‘doing no harm’ in the fragile and conflict-affected societies where they work to deliver more tangible positive peace dividends? Designed for businesses, practitioners,... more
​What are the conditions under which businesses can move beyond ‘doing no harm’ in the fragile and conflict-affected societies where they work to deliver more tangible positive peace dividends? Designed for businesses, practitioners, scholars and others who are interested and engaged in corporate impact in such areas, this report provides an overview of the main lessons from a four-year study of corporate peacebuilding initiatives across a range of contexts. Its main findings are formulated as seven key questions which can help evaluate risks and improve impact.
After decades of isolation, Myanmar opened up its economy to international trade in 2012. This opening led to a rapid influx of international investment, exposure to the international corporate social responsibility (CSR) community and... more
After decades of isolation, Myanmar opened up its economy to international trade in 2012. This opening led to a rapid influx of international investment, exposure to the international corporate social responsibility (CSR) community and presumed pressures to conform to related norms and practices. We report on a large-scale survey of firms operating in Myanmar, comparing perceptions of corporate practitioners of CSR and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Our findings show that awareness levels of CSR among domestic Myanmar firms match those of their international peers, but the application of and selection criteria for CSR implementation by domestic firms in Myanmar differs from typical CSR activities observed in other parts of the world, in particular by Global North firms. More surprisingly, Myanmar firms have a higher awareness of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) than their multinational counterparts. Our findings have implications for CSR advocacy in Myanma...
India’s rapid economic growth over the last decade has been coupled with a Maoist insurgency that competes with the state for rural allegiance. In response to the threat, the Government of India has securitized development, using public... more
India’s rapid economic growth over the last decade has been coupled with a Maoist insurgency that competes with the state for rural allegiance. In response to the threat, the Government of India has securitized development, using public works programmes in an attempt to sway locals away from Maoist allegiance. However, these areas are also home to massive iron and coal mines that drive India’s growth. This study aims to address the lack of local-level analysis and the lack of a robust dataset by merging qualitative fieldwork with disparate district-level conflict data sources to explore different potential explanatory variables for the Maoist insurgency, including the relationship between development works, violence, and natural resource extraction. We find that while effective implementation of development programmes is loosely related to the immediate suppression of violent activities in Maoist-affected districts, and under certain conditions mining activity increases the likeliho...
Climate change amplifies social, political, economic, infrastructural and environmental challenges in many Global South cities, and perhaps no city is more vulnerable than Bangladesh’s capital of Dhaka. Climate-induced rural–urban... more
Climate change amplifies social, political, economic, infrastructural and environmental challenges in many Global South cities, and perhaps no city is more vulnerable than Bangladesh’s capital of Dhaka. Climate-induced rural–urban migration is a profound concern, and Dhaka’s political leaders have embraced technology-based innovation as one solution pathway. This article explores the societal impact of Dhaka’s innovation environment strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Employing a case study qualitative methodology, our three findings expand knowledge about innovation for urban climate adaptation and mitigation as understood by Dhaka-based entrepreneurs. First, the most effective innovations were not the most technologically advanced, but those with the highest degree of participant ownership. Second, gaps between recipient, corporate and governmental understandings of effective mitigation and adaptation harmed projects were driven by different definitions of ris...
Over the last decades, encouragement of business engagement with environmental and socio-economic development has gained prominence due to the perceived weakening of states and multilateral institutions against the forces of global... more
Over the last decades, encouragement of business engagement with environmental and socio-economic development has gained prominence due to the perceived weakening of states and multilateral institutions against the forces of global capitalism. Different ways of encouraging changes in business behavior have been promoted, such as the formation of public/private partnerships, corporate social responsibility initiatives, and other forms of non-binding organizational arrangements. However, there is no real consensus on the desired role of business in development, what the best policies for global development are, or what “development” itself is and should be defined as. Indeed, precisely as a formal consensus has been reached on the broad agenda of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, a narrower agenda focusing on industrialization, modernization, and economic growth is promoted by new actors, many originating in the Global South. This special issue asks how the emergence o...
Despite emerging study of business initiatives that attempt to support local peace and development, we still have significant knowledge gaps on their effectiveness and efficiency. This article builds theory on business engagements for... more
Despite emerging study of business initiatives that attempt to support local peace and development, we still have significant knowledge gaps on their effectiveness and efficiency. This article builds theory on business engagements for peace through exploration of the Footprints for Peace (FOP) peacebuilding project by the Federación Nacional de Cafeteros de Colombia (FNC). FOP was a business-peace initiative that attempted to improve the lives of vulnerable populations in conflict-affected regions. Through 70 stakeholder interviews, we show how FOP operationalized local peace and development in four conflict-affected departments of Colombia, and examine FNC’s motivations for and effectiveness of its peacebuilding activities. Our main finding is that FOP’s success supported several existing theories on business engagement in peace both in terms of peacebuilding by business and for local economic and societal development, providing evidence in support of development–business collabora...
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to reconceptualize how managers of multinational enterprises (MNEs) manage risk, particularly in fragile and/or conflict-affected areas of operation. The authors suggest that MNEs consider reducing... more
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to reconceptualize how managers of multinational enterprises (MNEs) manage risk, particularly in fragile and/or conflict-affected areas of operation. The authors suggest that MNEs consider reducing risk at its source rather than trying to avoid or react to risks as they occur. By incorporating peacebuilding strategies, managers may not only reduce investment risk but also contribute to stability and prosperity in the communities where they operate, and gain a competitive advantage in doing so. Design/methodology/approach The authors show how firms can take a more holistic approach to working in conflict-affected areas. They do so by overlaying conceptualizations of risk with those of peacebuilding and then use case examples to illustrate how such actions work in practice. Findings Using a series of examples, the authors find that MNEs that incorporate peacebuilding frameworks in their risk calculations in complex settings tend to have a better un...
ABSTRACT The global shift from rural to urban living will be the most important demographic transformation of the 21st century. All great shifts create the opportunity for great fortunes, especially for those with audacious visions who... more
ABSTRACT The global shift from rural to urban living will be the most important demographic transformation of the 21st century. All great shifts create the opportunity for great fortunes, especially for those with audacious visions who are positioned to capitalize. Indian industrialist Ajit Gulabchand runs Hindustan Construction Company (HCC), which is responsible for some of the country's most iconic infrastructure projects. In what might be the single biggest bet in the history of Indian real estate, Gulabchand has staked HCC's future – and his own family fortune – on a cluster of five planned cities perched along artificial fjords about four hours east of Mumbai. He calls it Lavasa. 300 million people are projected to move into India's already overcrowded cities over the next quarter-century. Lavasa is Gulabchand's US$6 billion dollar attempt to capitalize on this demographic shift – and turn a profit in the process. He even modeled Dasve, the first of Lavasa's five cities, after Portofino on the Italian Riviera. Lavasa's sales team speaks of a " stirring adventure " , complete with French lessons and rock climbing, for the 300,000 residents that it hopes to attract. With Indian cities feeling increasingly like pressure cookers, Lavasa's promise of clean air, sidewalks, and personal space attracted huge investments. But the setbacks have piled up ever since the project broke ground in 2007. Settling complex legal claims over environmental abuses and villager displacement has delayed progress by years. Jilted early investors share their stories on blogs with titles like " Lavasa is the Highway to Hell ". Blueprints for the other four cities have remained on the drawing board for half a decade. And the mood at Lavasa headquarters is one of confusion. Following the lead of award-winning American economists and foreign investment houses, they're trying to solve one of the developing world's biggest challenges by creating a model for a new urban future. How could anyone object? Understanding the skepticism surrounding Lavasa requires understanding the dueling narratives of the city. Western reporters have portrayed it as a kind of Stepford-Wives-meets-Truman-Show-in-Asia style oddity, emphasizing the sheer incongruity of replicating an upscale Mediterranean fishing village in the middle of poverty-stricken rural India. Even though Lavasa has won numerous urban planning and design awards, and drawn foreign investors like Oxford University, Manchester City Football Club, and Sir Nick Faldo, it's still hard to fit the place into old-school perceptions of what constitutes the " real " India. In Western eyes, Lavasa is as a visionary, quixotic gem doomed by ill
India’s landmark 2014 election brought Prime Minister Narendra Modi to power with a broad mandate to reshape the country’s foreign policy. His sophistication in this realm has surprised many, but current Indian foreign policy is also... more
India’s landmark 2014 election brought Prime Minister Narendra Modi to power with a broad mandate to reshape the country’s foreign policy. His sophistication in this realm has surprised many, but current Indian foreign policy is also influenced by both structural domestic factors that pre-date his term and new actors who seek to gain influence or expand their roles. This report explores the effect of domestic influence on Indian foreign policy by outlining the growing links between domestic dynamics and India’s international aspirations. It highlights five new domestic determinants of foreign policy decision-making in light of the BJP election victory in 2014. It also discusses five significant challenges that domestic factors pose to India’s ability to turn its international aspirations into reality. These factors indicate that even Modi’s historic mandate may not be enough to insulate his government from domestic forces – both allies and antagonists – that wish to shape foreign policy. The report concludes with thoughts on how these aspirations and challenges influence the playing field on which foreign policy decisions are currently made in India and may manifest themselves in the policy realm.
Research Interests:
The new 'Business For Peace' (B4P) paradigm urges multinational corporations (MNCs) to enter conflict zones and fragile post-conflict environments as an alternative to traditional development aid. While B4P's positive impact... more
The new 'Business For Peace' (B4P) paradigm urges multinational corporations (MNCs) to enter conflict zones and fragile post-conflict environments as an alternative to traditional development aid. While B4P's positive impact through economic opening and Corporate Social Responsibility is assumed, corporate presence can instead exacerbate conflict dynamics in certain settings. As B4P is becoming a standardized component throughout all multilateral development aid activities per the United Nations Global Compact B4P platform and the UN's 'Delivering As One' mandate, we argue that bringing B4P into the forefront of research on business, development, and conflict is essential. In this article, we unpack the relationships between business, conflict and liberal peace politics that led to the B4P framework. We then show how five major debates influence B4P today: if MNCs should be peacebuilders; if so, what should they do; how do we define and model 'peace' ...
Research Interests:

And 11 more